$18,868.78
Total P&L
$3,189.91
Realized
$15,678.87
Unrealized
$221,100
Deployed
61%
Win Rate
3657
Scanned
kalshi
$19,794.00
since 2026-04-06 · 229 trades
polymarket
-$925.22
since first trade · 116 trades
cumulative p&l
per-venue books · realized (solid) vs total incl. open marks (dashed)
edge buckets
|forecast − market| at entry · does claimed edge turn into money| edge | venue | trades | open | closed | win rate | realized | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–5pp | kalshi | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | -$469.87 | -$970.09 |
| polymarket | 16 | 10 | 6 | 83% | -$413.21 | -$467.52 | |
| both | 25 | 16 | 9 | 78% | -$883.08 | -$1,437.61 | |
| 5–8pp | kalshi | 59 | 42 | 17 | 65% | -$968.66 | -$1,377.53 |
| polymarket | 28 | 24 | 4 | 50% | -$1,282.97 | -$566.94 | |
| both | 87 | 66 | 21 | 62% | -$2,251.63 | -$1,944.47 | |
| 8–12pp | kalshi | 48 | 36 | 12 | 83% | $2,640.49 | $3,601.91 |
| polymarket | 27 | 20 | 7 | 43% | -$2,094.21 | -$1,754.27 | |
| both | 75 | 56 | 19 | 68% | $546.28 | $1,847.64 | |
| 12pp+ | kalshi | 113 | 92 | 21 | 57% | $8,812.96 | $18,539.71 |
| polymarket | 45 | 31 | 14 | 43% | -$3,034.62 | $1,863.51 | |
| both | 158 | 123 | 35 | 51% | $5,778.34 | $20,403.22 |