$22,334.68
Total P&L
$6,190.50
Realized
$16,144.18
Unrealized
$208,900
Deployed
60%
Win Rate
3331
Scanned
kalshi
$24,507.94
since 2026-04-06 · 213 trades
polymarket
-$2,173.26
since first trade · 109 trades
cumulative p&l
per-venue books · realized (solid) vs total incl. open marks (dashed)
edge buckets
|forecast − market| at entry · does claimed edge turn into money| edge | venue | trades | open | closed | win rate | realized | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–5pp | kalshi | 9 | 8 | 1 | 100% | $26.48 | -$316.29 |
| polymarket | 16 | 11 | 5 | 80% | -$474.89 | -$506.72 | |
| both | 25 | 19 | 6 | 83% | -$448.41 | -$823.01 | |
| 5–8pp | kalshi | 54 | 37 | 17 | 65% | -$527.04 | -$399.90 |
| polymarket | 24 | 21 | 3 | 33% | -$1,284.72 | -$1,120.66 | |
| both | 78 | 58 | 20 | 60% | -$1,811.76 | -$1,520.56 | |
| 8–12pp | kalshi | 44 | 32 | 12 | 83% | $2,894.12 | $3,624.78 |
| polymarket | 25 | 18 | 7 | 43% | -$1,965.79 | -$1,948.03 | |
| both | 69 | 50 | 19 | 68% | $928.33 | $1,676.75 | |
| 12pp+ | kalshi | 106 | 86 | 20 | 60% | $10,508.27 | $21,599.35 |
| polymarket | 44 | 31 | 13 | 38% | -$2,985.93 | $1,402.15 | |
| both | 150 | 117 | 33 | 52% | $7,522.34 | $23,001.50 |