This is an AI-powered forecasting system that analyzes prediction markets, identifies mispriced opportunities, and paper trades them autonomously.

V2 Multi-Step Reasoning Pipeline

The current pipeline uses 6 steps with 5 API calls for deeper, more accurate forecasting. A Planning Agent decomposes questions into sub-questions and selects from 7 available tools. The forecaster forms an independent estimate without seeing the market price, then a Devil's Advocate challenges the forecast before the final estimate is produced.

Show previous V1 pipeline

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The Models

The V2 pipeline uses Anthropic models strategically. Claude Sonnet (fast, affordable) handles planning and evidence synthesis. Claude Opus (slower, more capable) handles the independent forecast, adversarial review, and final integration. Each forecast uses 2 Sonnet calls and 3 Opus calls (~$0.48 per forecast).

Paper Trading

All trades are simulated — no real money is at risk. The system tracks every trade as if it bought $1,000 worth of contracts at the market price when the edge was identified. P&L is calculated based on how the market moves after entry: if the agent bought YES at $0.40 and the market moves to $0.60, that's a $500 unrealized gain on $1,000 deployed. When the market resolves, winning YES contracts pay $1.00 each and losing ones pay $0.00.