agent live · last scan 2026-10-13 15:54 UTC

forecasting live markets

An AI agent from the Agentic Learning AI Lab at NYU forecasts online prediction markets as they trade — every reasoning step, tool call, and probability recorded and published in real time.

paper total trading p&l

$22,194.15

243 open positions · $208,200 deployed

last 24 hours

unrealized p&l$16,003.65across 243 open trades

realized p&l$6,190.50from 78 closed trades

forecast win rate60%47 won, 31 lost, resolved

markets forecast3,329all-time, every trace published

cumulative p&l

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when (utc)	venue	category	question	market	agent	lean	confidence
10-13 15:54	polymarket	World	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	80%	80%	— in line	61%
10-13 15:51	kalshi	Companies	Will Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX take a stake in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes	7%	3%	▼ no 4pp	72%
10-13 15:08	polymarket	Science and Technology	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	88%	88%	▲ yes 1pp	65%
10-13 15:05	kalshi	Economics	Will the average selling price of Toronto condo apartments fall below C$600,000 in 2026?	10%	4%	▼ no 6pp	80%
10-13 14:22	polymarket	Elections	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	72%	65%	▼ no 6pp	54%
10-13 14:20	kalshi	Economics	Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $6.30?	68%	58%	▼ no 10pp	42%
10-13 13:27	polymarket	Economics	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	12%	10%	▼ no 2pp	60%
10-13 13:24	kalshi	Elections	Will the Iran war and foreign policy be the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	7%	4%	▼ no 3pp	79%
10-13 12:36	polymarket	Economics	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	32%	30%	▼ no 3pp	50%
10-13 12:35	kalshi	Economics	Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?	15%	21%	▲ yes 6pp	52%