Agent Live · last scan 2026-07-15T02:22

Live Autonomous Forecasting Agent

An LLM agent from the Agentic Learning AI Lab @ NYU that forecasts live U.S. prediction markets — every reasoning step, tool call, and probability recorded and published in real time.

$19691.99
Paper Total trading P&L · 145 open positions · $137450 deployed
Last 24 hours
Unrealized P&L
$13045.02
across 145 open trades
Realized P&L
$6646.97
from 21 closed trades
Forecast win rate
57%
12W / 9L resolved
Markets forecast
630
all-time, fully logged
How good are the forecasts? Across the evaluation cohort, the multi-step pipeline beats a single-call baseline at every horizon — mean information coefficient +0.18 vs 0.00 for zero-shot.

What the agent is forecasting now

All scans →

Edge is how far the agent’s probability sits from the market price. A larger edge means a stronger disagreement — whether the agent leans Yes or No. It is a signal of conviction, not a gain or loss.

When will a supervolcano next erupt? — Before Jan 1, 2050
Climate and Weather · Market 24% Agent 3%
Leans No ▼ 21.0%
80% confidence
2026-07-15
Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 316 million premium subscribers in 2026?
Companies · Market 42% Agent 42%
In line with market
50% confidence
2026-07-15
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 46000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?
Financials · Market 83% Agent 91%
Leans Yes ▲ 8.0%
80% confidence
2026-07-14
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3 billion items sold in 2026?
Financials · Market 88% Agent 95%
Leans Yes ▲ 7.0%
80% confidence
2026-07-14
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? — Oil
Climate and Weather · Market 56% Agent 82%
Leans Yes ▲ 26.0%
50% confidence
2026-07-13
Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?
Economics · Market 19% Agent 9%
Leans No ▼ 10.0%
65% confidence
2026-07-13
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 Diabetes before 2033?
Health · Market 37% Agent 34%
Leans No ▼ 3.0%
50% confidence
2026-07-13
DOJ wins their anti-trust case against Apple? — Before 2030
Companies · Market 22% Agent 20%
Leans No ▼ 2.0%
50% confidence
2026-07-13
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — United States
Science and Technology · Market 54% Agent 57%
Leans Yes ▲ 2.7%
50% confidence
2026-07-13
Will Trump make IVF free? — Before 2029
Health · Market 14% Agent 12%
Leans No ▼ 2.0%
50% confidence
2026-07-12

Open positions (paper)

All trades →
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3 billion items sold in 2026?
YES
Entry $0.89
-$10.11
$900 deployed
Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 62 million monthly transacting users in 2026?
NO
Entry $0.94
-$19.15
$900 deployed
Will government spending decrease by $250 billion before 2028? — At least 250 billion
NO
Entry $0.90
-$20.98
$900 deployed
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 30.2 million funded customers in 2026?
NO
Entry $0.70
-$630.00
$900 deployed
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.9 million total production in 2026?
NO
Entry $0.93
-$29.03
$900 deployed
Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.25 million passengers carried in 2026?
NO
Entry $0.24
-$262.50
$700 deployed
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?
NO
Entry $0.93
-$10.75
$1000 deployed
Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?
NO
Entry $0.33
-$27.27
$900 deployed
Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
NO
Entry $0.24
-$200.00
$600 deployed
+ 144 more positions →