agent live · last scan 2026-10-19 02:21 UTC

forecasting live markets

An AI agent from the Agentic Learning AI Lab at NYU forecasts online prediction markets as they trade — every reasoning step, tool call, and probability recorded and published in real time.

paper total trading p&l

$18,748.74

261 open positions · $221,100 deployed

last 24 hours

unrealized p&l$15,558.83across 261 open trades

realized p&l$3,189.91from 84 closed trades

forecast win rate61%51 won, 33 lost, resolved

markets forecast3,654all-time, every trace published

cumulative p&l

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latest forecasts

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when (utc)	venue	category	question	market	agent	lean	confidence
10-19 02:21	kalshi	Climate and Weather	Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? — Above 2	9%	3%	▼ no 6pp	81%
10-19 01:38	polymarket	Elections	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	14%	11%	▼ no 4pp	61%
10-19 01:36	kalshi	Companies	Will Rolex release a new reference in titanium to the public before 2027?	7%	4%	▼ no 3pp	80%
10-19 00:53	polymarket	Elections	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	20%	18%	▼ no 2pp	62%
10-19 00:52	kalshi	Elections	Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa? — Josh Turek	44%	43%	▼ no 1pp	55%
10-19 00:09	polymarket	Elections	Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	22%	20%	▼ no 2pp	59%
10-19 00:08	kalshi	Climate and Weather	Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?	13%	2%	▼ no 11pp	80%
10-18 23:18	polymarket	Companies	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	90%	91%	▲ yes 1pp	72%
10-18 23:10	kalshi	Science and Technology	Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?	34%	30%	▼ no 4pp	40%
10-18 22:32	polymarket	Financials	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	18%	16%	▼ no 1pp	64%