scans
Each scan is a full pass through the multi-step pipeline: plan, research, synthesise, ensemble, critic, final forecast. Click any scan to see every intermediate forecast, the evidence that produced it, and how the market moved afterward.
420
Scans last 7 days
+23pp
Accuracy vs market (7d, n=109)
+50.0pp
1406
Unique markets (3657 scans total)
Most accurate forecasts
where the market moved furthest the agent's way
polymarket
Companies
+88.4pp
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?
polymarket
Science and Technology
+72.0pp
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
World
+70.0pp
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 15, 2026?
All scans
2000 shown (most recent of 3657; older scans are not listed here yet)Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
70%
Agent
68%
-1.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-19
Will Republican win the House race for TX-15? — Monica De La Cruz
kalshi
Elections
Market
17%
Agent
20%
+3.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-19
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?
polymarket
Financials
Market
65%
Agent
60%
-5.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-19
Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? — Above 2
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
9%
Agent
3%
-6.2pp
81% conf
2026-10-19
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
14%
Agent
11%
-4.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-19
Will Rolex release a new reference in titanium to the public before 2027?
kalshi
Companies
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.0pp
80% conf
2026-10-19
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
20%
Agent
18%
-2.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-19
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa? — Josh Turek
kalshi
Elections
Market
44%
Agent
43%
-1.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-19
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.5pp
59% conf
2026-10-19
Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
13%
Agent
2%
-10.5pp
80% conf
2026-10-19
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
90%
Agent
91%
+0.6pp
72% conf
2026-10-18
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
34%
Agent
30%
-4.0pp
40% conf
2026-10-18
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
16%
-1.5pp
64% conf
2026-10-18
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.6000? — Above 4.6000
kalshi
Economics
Market
38%
Agent
15%
-23.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-18
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
polymarket
Elections
Market
36%
Agent
26%
-10.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election before Nov 3, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
4%
-4.0pp
80% conf
2026-10-18
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
83%
Agent
80%
-3.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-18
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
21%
Agent
22%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-18
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
polymarket
Politics
Market
24%
Agent
19%
-4.5pp
51% conf
2026-10-18
Will the FDA approve Any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
22%
Agent
15%
-7.5pp
57% conf
2026-10-18
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-4.4pp
72% conf
2026-10-18
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $230 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
47%
Agent
42%
-5.0pp
44% conf
2026-10-18
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
13%
Agent
8%
-4.1pp
57% conf
2026-10-18
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
7%
-4.5pp
68% conf
2026-10-18
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.1000? — Above 4.1000
kalshi
Economics
Market
90%
Agent
63%
-27.0pp
48% conf
2026-10-18
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? — Claude
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
46%
Agent
41%
-5.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-18
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
polymarket
Elections
Market
14%
Agent
8%
-5.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-18
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026? — Above 0.4%
kalshi
Economics
Market
19%
Agent
24%
+5.0pp
44% conf
2026-10-18
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
86%
Agent
78%
-7.5pp
48% conf
2026-10-18
Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026? — Mandatory body-worn cameras
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
5%
-4.7pp
72% conf
2026-10-18
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
20%
-4.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio? — Sherrod Brown
kalshi
Elections
Market
66%
Agent
64%
-2.5pp
57% conf
2026-10-18
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
86%
Agent
85%
-1.5pp
57% conf
2026-10-18
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
10%
-4.5pp
64% conf
2026-10-18
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
polymarket
Companies
Market
15%
Agent
14%
-1.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-18
Will Aspen Mountain open before Nov 22, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
21%
Agent
32%
+10.5pp
44% conf
2026-10-18
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
90%
Agent
86%
-3.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-18
Will Velo Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 195 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
89%
Agent
85%
-4.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-18
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
15%
Agent
6%
-8.1pp
62% conf
2026-10-18
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in December? — Above 0.3%
kalshi
Economics
Market
18%
Agent
16%
-2.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
20%
Agent
17%
-3.5pp
58% conf
2026-10-18
Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in December 2026? — Above 0.8%
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.3pp
67% conf
2026-10-18
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-4.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-18
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?
kalshi
Economics
Market
43%
Agent
39%
-4.0pp
44% conf
2026-10-18
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
24%
Agent
23%
-1.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-18
Will the Swiss National Bank hike 1-25bps at the December monetary policy assessment?
kalshi
Economics
Market
15%
Agent
14%
-1.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-18
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-5.0pp
67% conf
2026-10-18
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas? — Ken Paxton
kalshi
Elections
Market
40%
Agent
42%
+1.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
10%
Agent
10%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-18
Will the annual average credit-intermediation employment level for Delaware for 2026 be above 26.0 thousand employees?
kalshi
Economics
Market
19%
Agent
15%
-4.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-18
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
30%
Agent
29%
-1.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Will North Carolina’s employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing for December 2026 be above 26,500 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
41%
Agent
35%
-6.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-18
Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
84%
Agent
88%
+3.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-18
Will Indiana’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2027 be above 205 bu/acre?
kalshi
Economics
Market
52%
Agent
32%
-20.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-18
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
64%
Agent
62%
-2.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-18
2027 Toyota Sienna starting MSRP above $41,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
82%
Agent
77%
-5.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
38%
Agent
34%
-3.9pp
50% conf
2026-10-18
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q2 2027? — Above 3.5%
kalshi
Economics
Market
13%
Agent
16%
+3.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
polymarket
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
18%
-1.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-18
Will South Dakota’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 be above 3,550,000 head?
kalshi
Economics
Market
23%
Agent
22%
-1.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-18
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
29%
Agent
22%
-7.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-18
When will Stripe IPO? — Before Jun 1, 2027
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
6%
-3.0pp
71% conf
2026-10-18
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.8pp
69% conf
2026-10-18
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? — At least 14.00M bpd
kalshi
Economics
Market
88%
Agent
82%
-6.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-1.0pp
67% conf
2026-10-18
Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -8.5% of GDP?
kalshi
Economics
Market
65%
Agent
57%
-8.0pp
40% conf
2026-10-18
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
38%
-5.1pp
40% conf
2026-10-18
Will Mississippi’s foodsize catfish sales by live weight for 2026 be above 194.3 million pounds?
kalshi
Economics
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-1.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
64%
Agent
61%
-2.5pp
43% conf
2026-10-18
Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $800 billion?
kalshi
Economics
Market
72%
Agent
66%
-5.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-18
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
9%
Agent
6%
-2.7pp
64% conf
2026-10-17
Will the statewide average value of Iowa farmland for 2026 be above $11,750/acre?
kalshi
Economics
Market
55%
Agent
54%
-1.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-17
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
59%
Agent
60%
+1.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-17
Will New Jersey’s annual-average employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing for 2026 be above 30,300 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.5pp
81% conf
2026-10-17
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
80%
Agent
74%
-5.2pp
48% conf
2026-10-17
Will Utah ski resort skier visits for the 2026–27 ski season be above 6,000,000 skier visits?
kalshi
Economics
Market
42%
Agent
40%
-2.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-17
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
74%
+1.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-17
Will Alani Nu Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 150 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
83%
Agent
79%
-4.0pp
49% conf
2026-10-17
AI bubble burst in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.2pp
71% conf
2026-10-17
Will Nevada’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 423.62?
kalshi
Economics
Market
82%
Agent
79%
-3.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
48%
Agent
44%
-3.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-17
Will Kansas US Senate have the largest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate?
kalshi
Elections
Market
35%
Agent
40%
+4.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-17
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
25%
Agent
13%
-12.0pp
65% conf
2026-10-17
Will Anthropic have a higher Arena Score than Google at the end of 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
43%
-1.5pp
44% conf
2026-10-17
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?
polymarket
Companies
Market
14%
Agent
12%
-3.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-17
Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Oct 2026 be at least 5?
kalshi
Politics
Market
58%
Agent
6%
-52.5pp
81% conf
2026-10-17
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.8pp
60% conf
2026-10-17
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
46%
Agent
40%
-5.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-17
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.7pp
61% conf
2026-10-17
Will Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 be above 900,000 bales?
kalshi
Economics
Market
33%
Agent
30%
-2.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-17
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
78%
Agent
80%
+3.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-17
Will Rhode Island’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 431.10?
kalshi
Economics
Market
80%
Agent
81%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-17
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
16%
-2.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-17
Will Larry Page be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?
kalshi
Economics
Market
88%
Agent
85%
-3.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-17
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
17%
-2.5pp
57% conf
2026-10-17
Will Starbucks Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 101 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
40%
Agent
38%
-2.5pp
41% conf
2026-10-17
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
76%
Agent
74%
-2.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-17
Will Port of Baltimore container volume for 2026 be above 1,113,309 TEUs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
65%
Agent
57%
-7.5pp
45% conf
2026-10-17
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
76%
Agent
78%
+2.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-17
Will Madison fall below 30°F from issuance through Oct 31, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
40%
Agent
33%
-7.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-17
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.7pp
70% conf
2026-10-17
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
50%
Agent
66%
+16.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-17
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
7%
-5.5pp
68% conf
2026-10-17
Will Illinois’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only FHFA HPI for Q4 2026 be above 327.38?
kalshi
Economics
Market
86%
Agent
90%
+3.5pp
65% conf
2026-10-17
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
36%
Agent
28%
-7.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-17
Will the United Kingdom’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -5.5% of GDP?
kalshi
Economics
Market
90%
Agent
92%
+2.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-3.2pp
71% conf
2026-10-17
Will BOI's total annual passengers in 2026 be above 5,229,399? — Above 5,229,399 total passengers
kalshi
Economics
Market
59%
Agent
56%
-2.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-17
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
62%
Agent
56%
-6.5pp
44% conf
2026-10-17
Will alpine skier visits for the 2026–27 ski season be above 2,283,539 visits?
kalshi
Economics
Market
17%
Agent
14%
-3.0pp
59% conf
2026-10-17
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-17
Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 170 bu/acre?
kalshi
Economics
Market
10%
Agent
3%
-7.0pp
82% conf
2026-10-17
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
34%
Agent
22%
-12.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-17
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026? — Above 4.5 million
kalshi
Elections
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.5pp
83% conf
2026-10-17
Iran leadership change by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-17
Will the number of Bourbon barrels aging in Kentucky for January 1, 2026 be above 17.0 million barrels?
kalshi
Economics
Market
41%
Agent
44%
+3.5pp
40% conf
2026-10-17
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
87%
Agent
86%
-0.8pp
68% conf
2026-10-17
Rain in Austin in Oct 2026? — Above 4 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
23%
Agent
12%
-10.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-17
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
70%
Agent
64%
-6.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-17
Will Oklahoma’s field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 147.89 million barrels?
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
4%
-5.0pp
82% conf
2026-10-17
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.9pp
62% conf
2026-10-17
Above 0 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
45%
Agent
88%
+43.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-17
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
polymarket
Politics
Market
28%
Agent
24%
-3.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-17
Rain in Miami in Oct 2026? — Above 5 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
17%
Agent
29%
+11.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-17
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
polymarket
Health
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-2.9pp
71% conf
2026-10-17
Will the Port of Savannah’s total container volume for 2026 be above 5.6 million TEUs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
81%
Agent
89%
+8.0pp
71% conf
2026-10-17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
14%
Agent
11%
-2.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-17
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
19%
Agent
17%
-2.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-17
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.0pp
69% conf
2026-10-17
Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
34%
Agent
30%
-3.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-17
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
30%
Agent
31%
+0.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-16
Will Aspen Mountain open before Dec 6, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
93%
Agent
94%
+0.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-16
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
61%
Agent
78%
+17.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-16
How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Oct 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
89%
Agent
88%
-1.5pp
70% conf
2026-10-16
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
polymarket
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.2pp
69% conf
2026-10-16
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that California’s 2026 billionaire tax will become legally operative before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
13%
-7.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-16
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
polymarket
World
Market
83%
Agent
84%
+1.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-16
Will Kash Patel visit Russia before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-16
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-16
How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026? — Above 10
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
54%
Agent
48%
-5.5pp
48% conf
2026-10-16
Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-16
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
38%
Agent
35%
-3.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-16
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
84%
Agent
91%
+6.6pp
73% conf
2026-10-16
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
2%
-4.5pp
81% conf
2026-10-16
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
42%
-2.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-16
Top coding AI on October 31, 2026 (Arena.ai)? — Claude
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
90%
Agent
86%
-3.5pp
67% conf
2026-10-16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
6%
-5.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-16
Will Minnesota’s annual-average employment in Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing for 2026 be above 18,200 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
91%
Agent
92%
+1.5pp
76% conf
2026-10-16
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
polymarket
World
Market
78%
Agent
79%
+1.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-16
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
18%
Agent
11%
-7.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-16
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
21%
Agent
15%
-6.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-16
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.0pp
71% conf
2026-10-16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-3.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-16
Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 275?
kalshi
Economics
Market
92%
Agent
96%
+3.5pp
84% conf
2026-10-16
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
58%
Agent
52%
-5.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-16
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.70 by Dec 31, 2026? — Above $4.70
kalshi
Economics
Market
30%
Agent
20%
-9.5pp
54% conf
2026-10-16
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
18%
-6.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-16
When will Discord IPO? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
8%
-4.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-16
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
88%
-0.2pp
69% conf
2026-10-16
Will Trudy become a Category 4 hurricane? — Category 4 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
82%
Agent
79%
-3.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-16
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
22%
Agent
22%
-1.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-16
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
36%
Agent
24%
-11.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-16
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
34%
Agent
31%
-2.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-16
Will Mike Lee vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-4.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-16
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-16
Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 97.5 TWh?
kalshi
Economics
Market
58%
Agent
53%
-5.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-16
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
14%
-4.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-16
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
14%
+4.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-16
Natural Disaster in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-16
Top Chinese AI company on October 31, 2026? — Moonshot
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-3.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-16
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
76%
Agent
78%
+2.0pp
56% conf
2026-10-16
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
3%
-6.2pp
85% conf
2026-10-16
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
39%
Agent
36%
-3.1pp
50% conf
2026-10-16
Will Grubhub App Downloads for October 2026 be above 115 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
61%
Agent
60%
-1.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-16
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
20%
-6.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-16
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Nov 16, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
90%
Agent
92%
+2.5pp
80% conf
2026-10-16
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
58%
Agent
62%
+3.0pp
44% conf
2026-10-16
5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
2%
-4.5pp
86% conf
2026-10-16
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
84%
Agent
80%
-3.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-16
Rain in Dallas in Oct 2026? — Above 5 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
55%
Agent
50%
-5.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-16
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
84%
Agent
86%
+1.5pp
71% conf
2026-10-16
Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?
kalshi
Financials
Market
73%
Agent
48%
-24.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-16
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
69%
Agent
72%
+3.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-16
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 9.6 million?
kalshi
Economics
Market
78%
Agent
59%
-19.0pp
45% conf
2026-10-16
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
40%
Agent
34%
-5.0pp
46% conf
2026-10-16
Will Hawaii’s total visitor expenditures for 2026 be above $21.7531 billion?
kalshi
Economics
Market
83%
Agent
80%
-3.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
47%
Agent
43%
-4.0pp
45% conf
2026-10-16
Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
93%
+1.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-16
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
polymarket
World
Market
23%
Agent
16%
-6.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-16
Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 30,000
kalshi
Economics
Market
63%
Agent
64%
+1.5pp
48% conf
2026-10-16
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
87%
Agent
82%
-5.2pp
55% conf
2026-10-15
Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 220 MMst?
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
5%
-4.0pp
76% conf
2026-10-15
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
48%
Agent
22%
-26.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-15
Will Ilhan Omar's U.S. citizenship be revoked before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
17%
Agent
3%
-14.0pp
82% conf
2026-10-15
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
14%
Agent
15%
+1.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-15
Hantavirus Public Health Emergency of International Concern by 2026? — In Dec 31, 2026
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
10%
Agent
3%
-6.8pp
72% conf
2026-10-15
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
48%
Agent
45%
-2.5pp
56% conf
2026-10-15
Will there be more than 9 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? — Above 9
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
59%
Agent
72%
+13.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
24%
Agent
15%
-9.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-15
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in November? — Above 0.4%
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-15
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
22%
Agent
18%
-4.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-15
Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 118 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
12%
+1.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-15
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
9%
-2.9pp
60% conf
2026-10-15
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?
kalshi
Economics
Market
55%
Agent
55%
-0.5pp
33% conf
2026-10-15
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
24%
Agent
20%
-4.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-15
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40? — Above 4.40
kalshi
Economics
Market
21%
Agent
16%
-4.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-2.0pp
65% conf
2026-10-15
Will the combined annual-average employment in Michigan Motor Vehicle Manufacturing and Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 156,600 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
31%
Agent
17%
-14.0pp
65% conf
2026-10-15
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31?
polymarket
Companies
Market
14%
Agent
5%
-9.5pp
69% conf
2026-10-15
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
12%
+2.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-15
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
52%
Agent
30%
-22.0pp
49% conf
2026-10-15
Will New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 478.68?
kalshi
Economics
Market
90%
Agent
90%
+0.0pp
71% conf
2026-10-15
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
18%
-1.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-15
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 51 million?
kalshi
Economics
Market
11%
Agent
6%
-5.5pp
76% conf
2026-10-15
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
74%
Agent
70%
-4.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-15
Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.5 million TEUs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
17%
Agent
4%
-13.0pp
86% conf
2026-10-15
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-4.4pp
72% conf
2026-10-15
Will Pennsylvania’s marketed natural-gas production for 2026 be above 7.675792 trillion cubic feet?
kalshi
Economics
Market
53%
Agent
46%
-6.5pp
41% conf
2026-10-15
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
13%
-4.2pp
57% conf
2026-10-15
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections before Jan 1, 2027? — Dot Plot Omitted
kalshi
Economics
Market
23%
Agent
13%
-10.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-15
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.0pp
76% conf
2026-10-15
Will Port of Virginia total container volume for 2026 be above 3.45 million TEUs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
3%
-4.8pp
84% conf
2026-10-15
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
22%
Agent
18%
-4.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-15
2027 Toyota RAV4 starting MSRP above $32,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
75%
Agent
66%
-9.0pp
45% conf
2026-10-15
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.2pp
62% conf
2026-10-15
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $8.00?
kalshi
Economics
Market
11%
Agent
7%
-4.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-15
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
24%
+2.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-15
Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms? — Before Nov 3, 2026
kalshi
Politics
Market
50%
Agent
6%
-44.0pp
77% conf
2026-10-15
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
61%
Agent
60%
-1.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-15
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October?
kalshi
Economics
Market
67%
Agent
60%
-6.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-15
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
polymarket
Elections
Market
87%
Agent
89%
+2.1pp
69% conf
2026-10-15
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
8%
-3.0pp
65% conf
2026-10-15
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
polymarket
World
Market
28%
Agent
27%
-1.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-15
Will Kamala Harris announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
54%
Agent
42%
-12.0pp
45% conf
2026-10-15
Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-15
Will Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 be above 26,400 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-4.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-15
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
91%
Agent
96%
+4.8pp
86% conf
2026-10-15
Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 29.5¢/kWh?
kalshi
Economics
Market
83%
Agent
77%
-6.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-15
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
22%
-4.5pp
45% conf
2026-10-15
Will Arkansas broiler production for 2026 be above 8.0 billion pounds?
kalshi
Economics
Market
36%
Agent
40%
+4.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-15
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
10%
+1.0pp
69% conf
2026-10-15
Will Kentucky private employment in Distilleries (NAICS 312140) for June 2026 be above 7,542 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
7%
+0.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-15
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
80%
Agent
77%
-3.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-15
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
75%
Agent
86%
+11.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-15
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
8%
-8.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-15
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
9%
Agent
3%
-6.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-15
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
76%
Agent
76%
-0.6pp
61% conf
2026-10-15
Snow in Philadelphia in Dec 2026? — Above 8 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
13%
Agent
8%
-5.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-15
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
92%
+1.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-15
Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%? — Yes
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
3%
-5.0pp
85% conf
2026-10-15
Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
23%
-4.5pp
54% conf
2026-10-14
Will Dutch Bros Foot Traffic for October 2026 be above 115?
kalshi
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-0.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
68%
Agent
71%
+2.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-14
Snow in Philadelphia in Dec 2026? — Above 2 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
41%
Agent
25%
-16.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-14
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
68%
Agent
68%
+0.2pp
51% conf
2026-10-14
Will average gas prices go above $4.45 by Oct 31, 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
21%
Agent
10%
-11.0pp
67% conf
2026-10-14
Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-4.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-14
Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
3%
-5.3pp
76% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
89%
-1.5pp
71% conf
2026-10-14
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
5%
-4.1pp
76% conf
2026-10-14
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
24%
Agent
21%
-3.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-14
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in November 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
34%
Agent
38%
+4.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-14
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
43%
Agent
39%
-4.0pp
49% conf
2026-10-14
Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $750?
kalshi
Economics
Market
89%
Agent
90%
+0.5pp
68% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
86%
-2.5pp
64% conf
2026-10-14
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?
kalshi
Economics
Market
39%
Agent
30%
-9.5pp
56% conf
2026-10-14
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-3.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-14
Will Idaho’s potato production for 2026 be above 138.38 million cwt?
kalshi
Economics
Market
13%
Agent
4%
-9.0pp
84% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
92%
-0.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-14
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026? — Above 0.2%
kalshi
Economics
Market
36%
Agent
40%
+4.5pp
45% conf
2026-10-14
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
92%
Agent
92%
+0.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-14
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $6.39 by Dec 31?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
70%
Agent
68%
-2.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-14
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-14
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in October? — Above 0.1%
kalshi
Economics
Market
73%
Agent
83%
+10.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
92%
-1.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-14
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in October? — Above 0.2%
kalshi
Economics
Market
30%
Agent
36%
+5.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-14
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
85%
Agent
88%
+3.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-14
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
32%
Agent
42%
+10.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
88%
-3.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-14
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-4.0pp
81% conf
2026-10-14
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-14
Will Peggy Flanagan underperform Kamala Harris in Minnesota?
kalshi
Elections
Market
45%
Agent
48%
+3.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-14
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
30%
Agent
24%
-6.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-14
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points? — Democrats, ≥10%
kalshi
Elections
Market
40%
Agent
34%
-6.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-14
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
28%
Agent
24%
-3.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-14
NYC Health sewer-entry warning before Nov 1, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
4%
-4.0pp
77% conf
2026-10-14
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-14
Will the price of natural gas get above $4.00 per million BTU before January 1, 2027? — $4.01 or above
kalshi
Economics
Market
74%
Agent
48%
-25.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-14
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
68%
Agent
72%
+4.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-14
Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages before 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
91%
Agent
92%
+1.0pp
77% conf
2026-10-14
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
33%
Agent
32%
-0.6pp
54% conf
2026-10-14
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.2pp
80% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
86%
-2.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-14
Will Sprite Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 89 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
91%
Agent
89%
-2.0pp
56% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
13%
+0.8pp
66% conf
2026-10-14
Rain in Seattle in Oct 2026? — Above 2 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
50%
Agent
40%
-10.0pp
45% conf
2026-10-14
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
polymarket
Financials
Market
26%
Agent
20%
-6.0pp
46% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved before 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
12%
Agent
8%
-4.5pp
67% conf
2026-10-14
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-2.5pp
72% conf
2026-10-14
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026? — 5.50% or higher
kalshi
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
32%
Agent
34%
+2.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-14
Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $7.50?
kalshi
Economics
Market
17%
Agent
4%
-12.5pp
79% conf
2026-10-14
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.2pp
66% conf
2026-10-14
Rain in Chicago in Oct 2026? — Above 3 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
65%
Agent
46%
-18.5pp
48% conf
2026-10-14
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.6pp
62% conf
2026-10-14
Rain in Paris on Sep 3, 2027? — Above 0 millimeters
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
36%
Agent
37%
+1.0pp
58% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
25%
Agent
24%
-1.2pp
55% conf
2026-10-14
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting? — Hike 25bps
kalshi
Economics
Market
56%
Agent
40%
-15.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-14
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
polymarket
Companies
Market
92%
Agent
90%
-2.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-14
Will New Hampshire’s maple syrup production in 2027 be above 130,000 gallons?
kalshi
Economics
Market
84%
Agent
82%
-1.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-14
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
80%
Agent
74%
-5.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-13
Will OpenAI have a higher Arena Score than Meta at the end of 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-13
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
48%
Agent
48%
+0.0pp
54% conf
2026-10-13
How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026? — At least 5
kalshi
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-3.4pp
52% conf
2026-10-13
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-3.5pp
71% conf
2026-10-13
Will Connecticut’s annual average employment in Insurance Carriers and Related Activities for 2026 be above 54,600 employees?
kalshi
Economics
Market
21%
Agent
14%
-7.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-13
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
92%
+1.8pp
72% conf
2026-10-13
Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.7pp
69% conf
2026-10-13
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
18%
Agent
20%
+2.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-13
Will Russia name the pathogen behind the Irkutsk plague lab death before Nov 1, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
22%
Agent
12%
-9.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-13
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
92%
Agent
86%
-6.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-13
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026? — Above 0.2%
kalshi
Economics
Market
46%
Agent
46%
-0.5pp
41% conf
2026-10-13
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
90%
Agent
90%
-0.5pp
71% conf
2026-10-13
Will unemployment in Brazil be below 5.8% in Q4 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
67%
Agent
87%
+20.0pp
69% conf
2026-10-13
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
79%
Agent
88%
+8.5pp
71% conf
2026-10-13
Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $6.50?
kalshi
Economics
Market
47%
Agent
36%
-11.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-13
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
56%
Agent
40%
-16.0pp
48% conf
2026-10-13
Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
8%
+0.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-13
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
80%
Agent
80%
+0.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-13
Will Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX take a stake in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Companies
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-4.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-13
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
88%
+0.8pp
65% conf
2026-10-13
Will the average selling price of Toronto condo apartments fall below C$600,000 in 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
10%
Agent
4%
-6.0pp
80% conf
2026-10-13
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
65%
-6.5pp
54% conf
2026-10-13
Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $6.30?
kalshi
Economics
Market
68%
Agent
58%
-10.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-13
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
polymarket
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-2.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-13
Will the Iran war and foreign policy be the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
kalshi
Elections
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.0pp
79% conf
2026-10-13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
32%
Agent
30%
-3.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-13
Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
15%
Agent
21%
+6.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-13
Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
31%
Agent
24%
-7.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-13
Will New Hampshire’s maple syrup production in 2027 be above 140,000 gallons?
kalshi
Economics
Market
71%
Agent
70%
-1.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-13
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
polymarket
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.8pp
72% conf
2026-10-13
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
42%
Agent
34%
-8.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-13
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-13
Will Wisconsin's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 184 bu/acre?
kalshi
Economics
Market
40%
Agent
38%
-2.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-13
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
16%
Agent
18%
+2.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-13
Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
76%
Agent
74%
-1.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-13
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
polymarket
Elections
Market
13%
Agent
13%
-0.1pp
57% conf
2026-10-13
Will Harry Kane be Knighted in 2026? — Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
kalshi
Economics
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-4.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-13
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
polymarket
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.7pp
60% conf
2026-10-13
Will the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 (seasonally adjusted) for 2026 fall below 7.5%? — Yes
kalshi
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
4%
-15.5pp
76% conf
2026-10-13
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-2.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-13
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in October 2026? — Above 0.0%
kalshi
Economics
Market
90%
Agent
92%
+2.0pp
70% conf
2026-10-13
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-2.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-13
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
78% conf
2026-10-13
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
polymarket
Health
Market
20%
Agent
22%
+1.6pp
46% conf
2026-10-13
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Maintains rate
kalshi
Economics
Market
87%
Agent
85%
-2.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-13
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
82%
Agent
84%
+2.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-13
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026? — Above 4.0%
kalshi
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
20%
+0.0pp
57% conf
2026-10-13
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
polymarket
Elections
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-1.2pp
56% conf
2026-10-13
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026? — Above $4.40
kalshi
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
12%
-8.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-13
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
80%
Agent
76%
-4.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-13
Will Meta have a higher Arena Score than OpenAI at the end of 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
72%
Agent
78%
+6.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-13
US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
4%
-4.0pp
80% conf
2026-10-13
Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.25 million?
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
66% conf
2026-10-13
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-0.7pp
55% conf
2026-10-13
Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?
kalshi
Elections
Market
93%
Agent
94%
+1.0pp
80% conf
2026-10-13
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
62%
Agent
57%
-5.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-13
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.9 million gallons?
kalshi
Economics
Market
70%
Agent
68%
-2.5pp
51% conf
2026-10-13
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
74%
Agent
78%
+4.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-13
Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 15 days?
kalshi
Economics
Market
42%
Agent
46%
+3.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-13
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
polymarket
Politics
Market
57%
Agent
50%
-6.7pp
48% conf
2026-10-12
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
15%
-5.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-12
Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
88%
Agent
84%
-3.5pp
57% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? — Fed maintains rate
kalshi
Economics
Market
24%
Agent
26%
+2.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-12
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
38%
Agent
34%
-3.5pp
42% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Fed maintains rate
kalshi
Economics
Market
82%
Agent
83%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
polymarket
Companies
Market
15%
Agent
14%
-1.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-12
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
12%
-2.0pp
67% conf
2026-10-12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
46%
Agent
42%
-4.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-12
Will X become law in any U.S. state except New York before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
72%
Agent
64%
-8.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-12
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
17%
Agent
30%
+12.7pp
44% conf
2026-10-12
Will any individual in connection with the DOJ investigation into the 2020 election in Fulton County be charged with a crime before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
11%
-3.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-12
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
93%
Agent
90%
-2.6pp
71% conf
2026-10-12
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,900 units?
kalshi
Economics
Market
40%
Agent
32%
-8.0pp
54% conf
2026-10-12
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-1.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Will establishing nationwide concealed carry reciprocity becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
3%
-6.9pp
86% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
62%
Agent
60%
-1.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-12
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
kalshi
Politics
Market
86%
Agent
85%
-1.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
91%
Agent
80%
-11.5pp
45% conf
2026-10-12
Will Maine commercial lobster landings for 2026 be above 85 million pounds?
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
7%
+0.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-5.0pp
58% conf
2026-10-12
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
8%
-0.7pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
58%
Agent
55%
-3.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-12
Rain in Providence in Oct 2026? — Above 3 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
78%
Agent
81%
+3.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-12
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
50%
Agent
50%
+1.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-12
Will North Dakota’s field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 421.101 million barrels?
kalshi
Economics
Market
37%
Agent
32%
-4.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-12
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
polymarket
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
28%
-0.4pp
48% conf
2026-10-12
Will data center power-cost standards become law? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
18%
+3.0pp
49% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
55%
Agent
52%
-2.0pp
48% conf
2026-10-12
Will dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for 2026 be above 10.00 Tcf?
kalshi
Economics
Market
18%
Agent
10%
-8.5pp
64% conf
2026-10-12
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
30%
Agent
28%
-2.5pp
45% conf
2026-10-12
Will Blake Lively and Taylor Swift be seen in public before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
38%
Agent
40%
+2.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-12
Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,600 units?
kalshi
Economics
Market
79%
Agent
73%
-6.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
64%
Agent
62%
-1.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-12
Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
83%
Agent
80%
-3.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
polymarket
Elections
Market
32%
Agent
32%
+1.0pp
50% conf
2026-10-12
Will Chamath Palihapitiya join Trump's sovereign wealth fund?
kalshi
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
2%
-4.5pp
82% conf
2026-10-12
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
polymarket
Politics
Market
33%
Agent
22%
-11.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-12
When will Tesla release Model Y to the public? — Before 2027
kalshi
Companies
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.5pp
80% conf
2026-10-12
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
40%
Agent
24%
-15.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-12
Will any Republican member of Congress calls on Trump to be removed as President through the 25th amendment before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
42%
Agent
44%
+1.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-12
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announce prior-year Section 280E relief for state-licensed medical marijuana businesses before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
19%
Agent
10%
-9.0pp
68% conf
2026-10-12
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.0pp
68% conf
2026-10-12
Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
8%
-1.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-12
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
66%
-6.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Supreme Court hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
4%
-11.0pp
78% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
80%
Agent
76%
-3.0pp
59% conf
2026-10-12
Will Donald Trump meet in person Vladimir Putin before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
81%
Agent
77%
-4.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
38%
Agent
40%
+2.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-12
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? — Above 50
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
8%
-1.5pp
70% conf
2026-10-12
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
78%
Agent
82%
+3.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-12
Will Donald Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
27%
Agent
20%
-7.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
70%
Agent
73%
+3.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-12
Will Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 be above 24,431 employees?
kalshi
Economics
Market
13%
Agent
8%
-5.0pp
70% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-12
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
23%
Agent
32%
+8.5pp
46% conf
2026-10-12
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
74%
Agent
74%
+0.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-12
Rain in College Station in Oct 2026? — Above 5 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
45%
Agent
44%
-1.5pp
48% conf
2026-10-12
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-3.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-11
Will Yellowstone National Park recreation visits in 2026 be above 5 million?
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
2%
-4.5pp
90% conf
2026-10-11
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
79%
Agent
74%
-4.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-11
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
11%
Agent
12%
+1.5pp
60% conf
2026-10-11
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
polymarket
World
Market
20%
Agent
25%
+4.5pp
46% conf
2026-10-11
How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Oct 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-2.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-11
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
18%
Agent
22%
+4.0pp
45% conf
2026-10-11
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
26%
Agent
15%
-11.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-11
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
polymarket
Elections
Market
31%
Agent
26%
-4.5pp
57% conf
2026-10-11
Will Ohio’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 677,400 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
66%
Agent
70%
+4.5pp
52% conf
2026-10-11
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
polymarket
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-4.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-11
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C. before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
58%
Agent
50%
-8.5pp
46% conf
2026-10-11
Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
38%
Agent
34%
-3.5pp
49% conf
2026-10-11
Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 30 days become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
51%
Agent
27%
-24.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-11
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
93%
Agent
92%
-1.3pp
73% conf
2026-10-11
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.3pp
60% conf
2026-10-11
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Health
Market
10%
Agent
5%
-5.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-11
Will Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 280,500 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
28%
Agent
14%
-13.8pp
64% conf
2026-10-11
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
86%
Agent
84%
-2.2pp
68% conf
2026-10-11
Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
3%
-4.9pp
80% conf
2026-10-11
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.5pp
65% conf
2026-10-11
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026? — Above 0.4%
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
11%
+3.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-11
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
78%
Agent
79%
+1.3pp
55% conf
2026-10-11
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 4,500 units?
kalshi
Economics
Market
19%
Agent
10%
-8.8pp
63% conf
2026-10-11
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
21%
-4.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-11
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
17%
Agent
12%
-5.0pp
58% conf
2026-10-11
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
38%
Agent
28%
-10.2pp
44% conf
2026-10-11
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-4.0pp
85% conf
2026-10-11
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
84%
Agent
81%
-2.2pp
57% conf
2026-10-11
Will Alaska’s total crude oil field production in 2026 be above 153.607 million barrels?
kalshi
Economics
Market
81%
Agent
90%
+9.2pp
72% conf
2026-10-11
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
66%
Agent
62%
-3.7pp
51% conf
2026-10-11
Will Trump call for a global AI slowdown before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
13%
Agent
10%
-2.7pp
60% conf
2026-10-11
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
91%
Agent
95%
+4.0pp
84% conf
2026-10-11
Will Andy Burnham announce their departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
4%
-3.6pp
66% conf
2026-10-11
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
38%
Agent
36%
-3.0pp
46% conf
2026-10-11
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
29%
Agent
16%
-13.2pp
56% conf
2026-10-11
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
27%
Agent
24%
-2.5pp
58% conf
2026-10-11
Will the Swiss National Bank hike 1-25bps at the December monetary policy assessment?
kalshi
Economics
Market
15%
Agent
17%
+1.8pp
58% conf
2026-10-11
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
32%
Agent
36%
+5.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-11
Will Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.3pp
72% conf
2026-10-11
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-2.0pp
68% conf
2026-10-11
Will California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 be above 419.85?
kalshi
Economics
Market
28%
Agent
26%
-2.3pp
50% conf
2026-10-11
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?
polymarket
Financials
Market
40%
Agent
37%
-2.7pp
44% conf
2026-10-11
AI regulation by 2027? — By Jan 1, 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
5%
-3.7pp
74% conf
2026-10-11
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
29%
Agent
27%
-2.2pp
55% conf
2026-10-11
Will any federal appellate court (including the U.S. Supreme Court) rule reverses or vacates the district court's November 24, 2025 order dismissing the indictment of James Comey, such that the criminal prosecution may proceed? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
22%
Agent
11%
-10.8pp
60% conf
2026-10-11
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
polymarket
Elections
Market
62%
Agent
54%
-8.5pp
45% conf
2026-10-11
Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
18%
+2.7pp
53% conf
2026-10-11
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
62%
Agent
65%
+2.7pp
53% conf
2026-10-11
Will a pre-midterm DNC convention happen by Nov 3, 2026 — Before Nov 3, 2026
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
2%
-4.5pp
90% conf
2026-10-11
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
33%
Agent
29%
-3.8pp
54% conf
2026-10-11
Above 10000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 10k
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
27%
Agent
20%
-6.8pp
48% conf
2026-10-11
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.5pp
68% conf
2026-10-11
Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
18%
Agent
17%
-1.0pp
56% conf
2026-10-11
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
11%
Agent
7%
-4.0pp
69% conf
2026-10-11
Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
38%
Agent
28%
-9.7pp
50% conf
2026-10-11
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
32%
Agent
31%
-1.2pp
50% conf
2026-10-11
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
18%
+3.3pp
56% conf
2026-10-11
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
41%
Agent
37%
-4.0pp
42% conf
2026-10-11
Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
93%
Agent
91%
-1.7pp
73% conf
2026-10-11
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
26%
Agent
26%
+0.3pp
54% conf
2026-10-10
Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be out as US Ambassador to Greece before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
64%
Agent
53%
-11.0pp
44% conf
2026-10-10
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
7%
-3.9pp
70% conf
2026-10-10
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
78%
Agent
65%
-13.2pp
49% conf
2026-10-10
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
52%
Agent
57%
+5.8pp
44% conf
2026-10-10
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
3%
-6.3pp
80% conf
2026-10-10
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
44%
Agent
39%
-5.5pp
45% conf
2026-10-10
Will the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) or its Board announce its award of the contract to construct the main span of the replacement Francis Scott Key Bridge to a named firm or team, under any contract structure or delivery method before Oct 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
53%
Agent
60%
+7.5pp
48% conf
2026-10-10
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
71%
-0.3pp
56% conf
2026-10-10
Will Any Court rule that the 2024 USA Federal Election was Fraudulent? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
2%
-5.4pp
82% conf
2026-10-10
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
61%
Agent
37%
-24.0pp
43% conf
2026-10-10
Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei meet before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
4%
-5.4pp
72% conf
2026-10-10
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
80%
-8.0pp
49% conf
2026-10-10
Will Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 be above 340,000 meat pounds?
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
11%
+3.8pp
53% conf
2026-10-10
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?
polymarket
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
33%
+15.7pp
48% conf
2026-10-10
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
22%
Agent
12%
-10.2pp
59% conf
2026-10-10
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
48%
Agent
48%
-0.5pp
43% conf
2026-10-10
Will companies will leave NYC for Florida in 2026? — United Airlines
kalshi
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
3%
-13.1pp
84% conf
2026-10-10
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-1.2pp
61% conf
2026-10-10
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
4%
-3.7pp
85% conf
2026-10-10
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
92%
Agent
91%
-1.1pp
73% conf
2026-10-10
Will Trump waive taxes for people earning under $150k? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-3.1pp
74% conf
2026-10-10
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
78%
Agent
77%
-0.2pp
67% conf
2026-10-10
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? — Dana White
kalshi
Politics
Market
18%
Agent
14%
-4.0pp
59% conf
2026-10-10
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
13%
-4.8pp
64% conf
2026-10-10
Will the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 be above 20%? — Decline greater than 20%
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.9pp
81% conf
2026-10-10
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
16%
Agent
18%
+1.3pp
58% conf
2026-10-10
Will Kansas US Senate have the largest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate?
kalshi
Elections
Market
35%
Agent
35%
-0.4pp
54% conf
2026-10-10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
74%
Agent
73%
-1.7pp
60% conf
2026-10-10
Will Florida visitors in 2026 be above 143.33 million visitors?
kalshi
Economics
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.2pp
63% conf
2026-10-10
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
86%
Agent
88%
+1.3pp
71% conf
2026-10-10
Pandemic by Dec 31, 2027? — Before 2028
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-1.4pp
62% conf
2026-10-10
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
60%
Agent
58%
-1.9pp
52% conf
2026-10-10
Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2028? — Before 2028
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
13%
Agent
5%
-8.7pp
81% conf
2026-10-10
Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
78%
Agent
78%
+0.3pp
52% conf
2026-10-10
Will the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Colorado in 2026 be above 32,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
35%
Agent
38%
+3.2pp
59% conf
2026-10-10
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
25%
Agent
23%
-2.4pp
61% conf
2026-10-10
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
22%
Agent
17%
-4.8pp
64% conf
2026-10-10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.2pp
72% conf
2026-10-10
Will Simon become a Category 5 hurricane? — Category 5 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
58%
Agent
57%
-1.2pp
60% conf
2026-10-10
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.7pp
70% conf
2026-10-10
Will Donald Trump endorse Benjamin Netanyahu in the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 28, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
17%
Agent
15%
-2.4pp
68% conf
2026-10-10
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-0.8pp
65% conf
2026-10-10
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.4pp
71% conf
2026-10-10
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.2pp
73% conf
2026-10-10
Will Nebraska’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2026 be above 190 bu/acre?
kalshi
Economics
Market
32%
Agent
30%
-2.4pp
58% conf
2026-10-10
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.2pp
72% conf
2026-10-10
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form? — Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
13%
Agent
6%
-6.6pp
72% conf
2026-10-10
Iran leadership change by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-0.9pp
61% conf
2026-10-10
Will OpenAI change its CEO? — Hires
kalshi
Companies
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-3.6pp
75% conf
2026-10-10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
84%
Agent
83%
-0.5pp
70% conf
2026-10-10
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
17%
Agent
20%
+2.6pp
63% conf
2026-10-10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
87%
Agent
84%
-3.8pp
62% conf
2026-10-10
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the bilateral U.S.–Saudi agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation under Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act has entered into force and become legally operative between the two governments before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.2pp
60% conf
2026-10-10
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.2pp
65% conf
2026-10-10
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 87,000 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.4pp
81% conf
2026-10-10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
15%
-1.2pp
62% conf
2026-10-10
Snow in Seattle in Dec 2026? — Above 4 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.0pp
63% conf
2026-10-10
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
polymarket
Health
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.1pp
75% conf
2026-10-10
Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
30%
Agent
27%
-2.6pp
59% conf
2026-10-10
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Health
Market
62%
Agent
64%
+2.8pp
56% conf
2026-10-09
Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
53%
Agent
57%
+4.0pp
59% conf
2026-10-09
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.4pp
70% conf
2026-10-09
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,800?
kalshi
Economics
Market
91%
Agent
92%
+0.8pp
66% conf
2026-10-09
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
40%
Agent
42%
+2.9pp
55% conf
2026-10-09
Will FCC announce the revocation, cancellation, or denial/non-renewal of the broadcast license of any full-power ABC, CBS, NBC, or Fox television station before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
78% conf
2026-10-09
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
30%
Agent
29%
-0.3pp
61% conf
2026-10-09
Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October? — Above 50
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
73%
Agent
71%
-1.6pp
50% conf
2026-10-09
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
84%
Agent
82%
-1.3pp
68% conf
2026-10-09
Will Kash Patel visit Russia before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
15%
+0.4pp
48% conf
2026-10-09
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
80%
Agent
81%
+1.1pp
66% conf
2026-10-09
How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026? — Above 10
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
22%
Agent
21%
-1.0pp
54% conf
2026-10-09
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
polymarket
World
Market
84%
Agent
84%
+0.4pp
60% conf
2026-10-09
Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 160 bu/acre?
kalshi
Economics
Market
14%
Agent
12%
-2.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-09
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
polymarket
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.6pp
63% conf
2026-10-09
Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
88%
Agent
89%
+1.4pp
76% conf
2026-10-09
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-09
Will Brooklyn Beckham be seen in public with David or Victoria Beckham this year? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
10%
-1.0pp
69% conf
2026-10-09
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
48%
Agent
48%
-0.9pp
57% conf
2026-10-09
Top coding AI on October 31, 2026 (Arena.ai)? — Claude
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
81%
Agent
82%
+1.2pp
66% conf
2026-10-09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
18%
Agent
16%
-2.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-09
Will the California High-Speed Rail Authority announce that permanent mainline track installation on the Central Valley high-speed rail guideway has physically begun (rail laid on the running alignment, not materials staging, railhead or yard trackwork, or a declared "track-laying phase") before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
61%
Agent
60%
-0.8pp
56% conf
2026-10-09
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
polymarket
World
Market
72%
Agent
74%
+1.4pp
63% conf
2026-10-09
Will the DOJ claim in federal court that any of President Biden's pardons are void? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
8%
-2.6pp
62% conf
2026-10-09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-1.7pp
65% conf
2026-10-09
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
9%
-0.4pp
62% conf
2026-10-09
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
44%
Agent
42%
-1.9pp
54% conf
2026-10-09
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.1pp
73% conf
2026-10-09
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
61%
Agent
67%
+6.6pp
58% conf
2026-10-09
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
36%
Agent
18%
-17.8pp
63% conf
2026-10-09
Blue tsunami in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
43%
Agent
41%
-1.6pp
59% conf
2026-10-09
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
45%
+0.6pp
56% conf
2026-10-09
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
19%
Agent
18%
-1.4pp
63% conf
2026-10-09
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 76 million short tons?
kalshi
Economics
Market
93%
Agent
92%
-1.0pp
77% conf
2026-10-09
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
90%
Agent
89%
-1.7pp
70% conf
2026-10-09
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting? — Fed maintains rate
kalshi
Economics
Market
74%
Agent
73%
-1.2pp
52% conf
2026-10-09
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
48%
Agent
47%
-0.4pp
59% conf
2026-10-09
Will any federal or state court rule issues a preliminary or permanent injunction prohibiting Trump Media & Technology Group from providing paying customers faster access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts than is available to the general public? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
42%
Agent
36%
-6.4pp
57% conf
2026-10-09
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
15%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-09
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
20%
Agent
17%
-3.4pp
67% conf
2026-10-09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.5pp
67% conf
2026-10-09
Top Chinese AI company on October 31, 2026? — Moonshot
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-0.7pp
62% conf
2026-10-09
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
polymarket
Politics
Market
28%
Agent
27%
-1.1pp
57% conf
2026-10-09
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? — Above $1000
kalshi
Economics
Market
13%
Agent
11%
-2.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-09
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?
polymarket
Companies
Market
9%
Agent
8%
-1.0pp
58% conf
2026-10-09
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? — Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-1.6pp
77% conf
2026-10-09
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
23%
-0.1pp
57% conf
2026-10-09
Will Simon become a Category 4 hurricane? — Category 4 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
78%
Agent
77%
-1.2pp
63% conf
2026-10-09
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
22%
Agent
21%
-1.1pp
74% conf
2026-10-09
Will legislation increasing New York City's property tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
54%
+45.8pp
64% conf
2026-10-09
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
19%
-2.1pp
59% conf
2026-10-09
Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
37%
Agent
38%
+1.0pp
49% conf
2026-10-09
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
76%
Agent
74%
-1.7pp
63% conf
2026-10-09
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Nov 16, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
74%
Agent
94%
+19.8pp
85% conf
2026-10-09
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
56%
Agent
51%
-5.0pp
56% conf
2026-10-09
Will the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit rule vacates or reverses, in whole or in part and on any ground including ripeness, the preliminary injunction barring enforcement of Act 174 of 2024's foreign-ownership restrictions on digital asset mining businesses? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
45%
Agent
42%
-3.4pp
46% conf
2026-10-09
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
20%
Agent
20%
+0.4pp
59% conf
2026-10-09
Will Donald Trump issue a statement about explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
40%
Agent
36%
-3.8pp
55% conf
2026-10-09
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
40%
Agent
38%
-2.9pp
57% conf
2026-10-09
Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
87%
Agent
89%
+2.4pp
68% conf
2026-10-09
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
85%
Agent
83%
-2.3pp
56% conf
2026-10-08
Snow in Seattle in Dec 2026? — Above 2 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-08
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
polymarket
Elections
Market
33%
Agent
31%
-2.0pp
58% conf
2026-10-08
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026? — Above $5.00
kalshi
Politics
Market
34%
Agent
31%
-2.6pp
57% conf
2026-10-08
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
12%
-0.9pp
63% conf
2026-10-08
Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
66%
Agent
62%
-4.2pp
57% conf
2026-10-08
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
polymarket
Financials
Market
31%
Agent
31%
-0.1pp
52% conf
2026-10-08
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
53%
Agent
51%
-1.8pp
54% conf
2026-10-08
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-0.9pp
68% conf
2026-10-08
Will NYC buses become free before 2027? — In 2026
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-3.9pp
78% conf
2026-10-08
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
85%
Agent
85%
+0.2pp
71% conf
2026-10-08
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.7pp
67% conf
2026-10-08
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
polymarket
Elections
Market
42%
Agent
40%
-1.1pp
54% conf
2026-10-08
Lisa DeNell Cook out as Federal Reserve Governor before Jan 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-1.7pp
72% conf
2026-10-08
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
polymarket
World
Market
9%
Agent
8%
-1.0pp
69% conf
2026-10-08
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.8pp
74% conf
2026-10-08
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
27%
Agent
26%
-1.0pp
59% conf
2026-10-08
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
11%
+0.4pp
65% conf
2026-10-08
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
30%
Agent
28%
-2.2pp
69% conf
2026-10-08
Will the United States have at least 4,800 data centers listed in 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
91%
Agent
89%
-2.0pp
63% conf
2026-10-08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
41%
Agent
39%
-1.6pp
56% conf
2026-10-08
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
9%
Agent
9%
+0.2pp
71% conf
2026-10-08
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
32%
Agent
29%
-2.6pp
57% conf
2026-10-08
Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 30,000
kalshi
Economics
Market
67%
Agent
67%
-0.4pp
56% conf
2026-10-08
New pandemic before 2028?
polymarket
Health
Market
15%
Agent
13%
-1.8pp
64% conf
2026-10-08
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Vladimir Putin in Oct 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
84%
Agent
82%
-1.6pp
64% conf
2026-10-08
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
14%
Agent
14%
-0.9pp
63% conf
2026-10-08
How high will CPI get this year? — Above 4.5%
kalshi
Economics
Market
18%
Agent
15%
-2.8pp
65% conf
2026-10-08
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
14%
Agent
11%
-2.6pp
62% conf
2026-10-08
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
12%
-0.2pp
65% conf
2026-10-08
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
11%
Agent
10%
-1.1pp
62% conf
2026-10-08
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
15%
-1.2pp
65% conf
2026-10-08
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
36%
Agent
41%
+4.5pp
50% conf
2026-10-08
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
93%
Agent
92%
-1.4pp
73% conf
2026-10-08
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
42%
Agent
40%
-1.6pp
53% conf
2026-10-08
Rain in Seattle in Oct 2026? — Above 1 inch
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
92%
Agent
89%
-3.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-08
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?
polymarket
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
16%
-3.6pp
66% conf
2026-10-08
Will Trump veto at least 1 bills before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
34%
Agent
32%
-1.6pp
59% conf
2026-10-08
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
78%
Agent
77%
-0.1pp
63% conf
2026-10-08
Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms? — Before Nov 3, 2026
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
7%
-2.4pp
69% conf
2026-10-08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
28%
Agent
27%
-0.3pp
61% conf
2026-10-08
Will any member of Congress be expelled before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
11%
-3.4pp
61% conf
2026-10-08
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+0.4pp
63% conf
2026-10-08
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
9%
-1.6pp
69% conf
2026-10-08
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.1pp
72% conf
2026-10-08
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October?
kalshi
Economics
Market
76%
Agent
74%
-2.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-08
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?
polymarket
Health
Market
16%
Agent
13%
-3.1pp
60% conf
2026-10-08
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
8%
-1.1pp
67% conf
2026-10-08
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.3pp
76% conf
2026-10-08
Will Wisconsin’s total milk production for 2026 be above 33.50 billion pounds?
kalshi
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
9%
-2.6pp
69% conf
2026-10-08
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-08
Will Jacob Frey leave as Mayor of Minneapolis before 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-1.9pp
79% conf
2026-10-08
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.8pp
62% conf
2026-10-08
Rain in NYC in Oct 2026? — Above 3 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
50%
Agent
49%
-1.2pp
53% conf
2026-10-08
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-0.6pp
60% conf
2026-10-08
Will Isaias become a Category 4 hurricane? — Category 4 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.0pp
67% conf
2026-10-08
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
8%
+0.3pp
68% conf
2026-10-08
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
40%
Agent
39%
-1.4pp
54% conf
2026-10-08
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.5pp
64% conf
2026-10-08
Will James Fishback be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
78%
Agent
15%
-62.8pp
68% conf
2026-10-08
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
30%
Agent
29%
-1.3pp
62% conf
2026-10-07
Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina during the 2026 hurricane season?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
28%
Agent
6%
-21.6pp
76% conf
2026-10-07
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
11%
Agent
9%
-2.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-07
Best AI in Oct 2026? — Claude
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
29%
Agent
29%
-0.4pp
60% conf
2026-10-07
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
polymarket
Companies
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.7pp
69% conf
2026-10-07
Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election before Nov 3, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.2pp
79% conf
2026-10-07
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
polymarket
Companies
Market
34%
Agent
25%
-9.3pp
54% conf
2026-10-07
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.8 million TEUs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
59%
Agent
56%
-3.4pp
53% conf
2026-10-07
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
36%
Agent
14%
-22.2pp
65% conf
2026-10-07
Will the US reopen its embassy in Syria before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
18%
-2.2pp
66% conf
2026-10-07
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
50%
Agent
52%
+2.1pp
54% conf
2026-10-07
Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026? — Donald Trump
kalshi
Politics
Market
45%
Agent
67%
+22.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-07
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
86%
Agent
83%
-3.1pp
66% conf
2026-10-07
Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen before 2027?
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.5pp
71% conf
2026-10-07
Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
11%
Agent
10%
-1.4pp
67% conf
2026-10-07
Will the 30Y US Treasury yield hit 6% by Oct 31, 2026? — 6% or higher
kalshi
Financials
Market
16%
Agent
16%
+0.0pp
57% conf
2026-10-07
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
54%
Agent
24%
-30.4pp
67% conf
2026-10-07
Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026? — Category 4 or higher landfall
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.3pp
67% conf
2026-10-07
Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-1.5pp
57% conf
2026-10-07
Rain in Miami in Oct 2026? — Above 7 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
19%
Agent
22%
+3.4pp
56% conf
2026-10-07
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
17%
Agent
18%
+1.8pp
58% conf
2026-10-07
Will Isaias become a Category 3 hurricane? — Category 3 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
70%
Agent
61%
-8.6pp
55% conf
2026-10-07
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
polymarket
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
10%
-0.7pp
66% conf
2026-10-07
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-07
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
78%
Agent
78%
-0.1pp
65% conf
2026-10-07
Will ICE announce a change to its official name before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-07
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
30%
Agent
28%
-1.9pp
62% conf
2026-10-07
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-1.4pp
63% conf
2026-10-07
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.3pp
65% conf
2026-10-07
Will Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announce the publication of a final rule, with an effective date, making quarterly reporting optional for public companies before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
13%
-1.8pp
68% conf
2026-10-07
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
66%
Agent
68%
+1.6pp
57% conf
2026-10-07
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in November 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
28%
Agent
26%
-2.4pp
60% conf
2026-10-07
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
39%
Agent
38%
-1.0pp
54% conf
2026-10-07
Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%? — Yes
kalshi
Economics
Market
11%
Agent
8%
-3.0pp
71% conf
2026-10-07
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
18%
Agent
16%
-2.3pp
65% conf
2026-10-07
Will Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 555,000 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
52%
Agent
49%
-3.0pp
55% conf
2026-10-07
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
84%
Agent
84%
+0.8pp
66% conf
2026-10-07
Will the UK announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-2.0pp
67% conf
2026-10-07
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.2pp
62% conf
2026-10-07
Will Central Bank of Brazil rate cuts for 2026 be 7 or more? — 7 or more cuts
kalshi
Economics
Market
74%
Agent
61%
-13.4pp
54% conf
2026-10-07
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
14%
Agent
15%
+0.6pp
62% conf
2026-10-07
Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 83,000 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
87%
Agent
87%
+0.0pp
74% conf
2026-10-07
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.3pp
66% conf
2026-10-07
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
32%
Agent
31%
-1.2pp
58% conf
2026-10-07
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
polymarket
Economics
Market
78%
Agent
76%
-1.5pp
64% conf
2026-10-07
Will Tim Pool attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room?
kalshi
Politics
Market
67%
Agent
42%
-25.4pp
51% conf
2026-10-07
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
34%
Agent
32%
-2.3pp
55% conf
2026-10-07
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
45%
Agent
44%
-1.0pp
54% conf
2026-10-07
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
19%
Agent
19%
+0.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-07
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.75%?
kalshi
Economics
Market
78%
Agent
80%
+2.2pp
68% conf
2026-10-07
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
18%
Agent
14%
-4.7pp
61% conf
2026-10-07
Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
22%
Agent
18%
-3.6pp
66% conf
2026-10-07
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
14%
Agent
16%
+1.7pp
64% conf
2026-10-07
Will legislation that makes “Department of War” the official statutory name of the United States Department of Defense become law before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
37%
Agent
37%
-0.4pp
57% conf
2026-10-07
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
polymarket
Health
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.4pp
69% conf
2026-10-07
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
77%
Agent
57%
-20.0pp
53% conf
2026-10-07
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.6pp
64% conf
2026-10-07
Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in California before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.6pp
79% conf
2026-10-07
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
32%
Agent
22%
-9.1pp
58% conf
2026-10-07
State of the economy at the end of 2026? — Overheating
kalshi
Economics
Market
65%
Agent
65%
-0.1pp
59% conf
2026-10-07
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
78%
Agent
78%
-0.1pp
63% conf
2026-10-06
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026? — Above 3.5%
kalshi
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
15%
+2.6pp
59% conf
2026-10-06
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
43%
Agent
46%
+2.5pp
55% conf
2026-10-06
Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-1.4pp
67% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
93%
+0.2pp
73% conf
2026-10-06
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran?
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.4pp
70% conf
2026-10-06
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
26%
Agent
24%
-2.1pp
57% conf
2026-10-06
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.0pp
71% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
12%
+1.5pp
68% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Central Bank of Chile hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
7%
-0.4pp
69% conf
2026-10-06
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-2.9pp
59% conf
2026-10-06
Will a Congressional stock trading ban become law by December 31, 2026? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-0.9pp
74% conf
2026-10-06
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
27%
Agent
25%
-1.8pp
54% conf
2026-10-06
Will Russia name the pathogen behind the Irkutsk plague lab death before Nov 1, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
29%
Agent
26%
-2.8pp
56% conf
2026-10-06
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
26%
Agent
22%
-4.3pp
57% conf
2026-10-06
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q1 2027? — Above 3.5%
kalshi
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
14%
+2.2pp
60% conf
2026-10-06
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
84%
Agent
85%
+1.1pp
72% conf
2026-10-06
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
24%
Agent
13%
-11.4pp
63% conf
2026-10-06
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-1.1pp
53% conf
2026-10-06
Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.0pp
71% conf
2026-10-06
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
24%
Agent
22%
-2.5pp
56% conf
2026-10-06
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
6%
-2.6pp
78% conf
2026-10-06
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
79%
Agent
76%
-2.8pp
61% conf
2026-10-06
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,100?
kalshi
Economics
Market
26%
Agent
24%
-1.6pp
56% conf
2026-10-06
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
64%
Agent
62%
-1.1pp
53% conf
2026-10-06
Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $6.30?
kalshi
Economics
Market
44%
Agent
41%
-2.6pp
52% conf
2026-10-06
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
9%
+0.1pp
69% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Iran war and foreign policy be the issue voters rank most important in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
kalshi
Elections
Market
39%
Agent
8%
-30.6pp
78% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
89%
-3.2pp
72% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? — Hike 25bps
kalshi
Economics
Market
37%
Agent
36%
-0.6pp
56% conf
2026-10-06
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
90%
+1.1pp
76% conf
2026-10-06
Will Donald Trump meet in person the Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
70% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
polymarket
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
12%
-0.2pp
66% conf
2026-10-06
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
46%
Agent
46%
-0.2pp
63% conf
2026-10-06
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare?
polymarket
Companies
Market
18%
Agent
16%
-1.7pp
51% conf
2026-10-06
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
8%
-2.8pp
72% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?
polymarket
Health
Market
24%
Agent
19%
-5.2pp
62% conf
2026-10-06
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? — a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.7pp
69% conf
2026-10-06
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
84%
-3.5pp
71% conf
2026-10-06
Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-1.5pp
77% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
37%
Agent
38%
+1.4pp
56% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bps
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.1pp
60% conf
2026-10-06
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
24%
Agent
29%
+4.8pp
46% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Secretary of State visit Cuba before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
14%
-6.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
11%
Agent
13%
+2.4pp
59% conf
2026-10-06
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 32 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
93%
Agent
90%
-2.6pp
62% conf
2026-10-06
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
polymarket
Elections
Market
18%
Agent
17%
-0.5pp
66% conf
2026-10-06
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
19%
Agent
7%
-12.2pp
70% conf
2026-10-06
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.8pp
64% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Economics
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.2pp
63% conf
2026-10-06
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
89%
-0.8pp
61% conf
2026-10-06
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 4.0%?
kalshi
Economics
Market
25%
Agent
19%
-6.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
92%
+0.7pp
77% conf
2026-10-06
Will Victoria's Secret & Co. report Above 9% total comparable sales growth in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-0.8pp
66% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
90%
-1.2pp
69% conf
2026-10-06
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026? — Above 4.5 million
kalshi
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.4pp
63% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
86%
Agent
85%
-1.9pp
62% conf
2026-10-06
5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
23%
Agent
6%
-16.6pp
73% conf
2026-10-06
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
80%
Agent
73%
-7.7pp
61% conf
2026-10-06
Will Donald Trump meet in person Nicolás Maduro before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.6pp
79% conf
2026-10-06
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
30%
Agent
25%
-4.1pp
58% conf
2026-10-05
Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026? — Above 500,000
kalshi
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.6pp
63% conf
2026-10-05
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
52%
Agent
48%
-4.1pp
47% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Parti Quebecois win at least 64 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? — 64 or more
kalshi
Elections
Market
25%
Agent
34%
+9.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-05
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
90%
+0.0pp
74% conf
2026-10-05
How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? — At least 3
kalshi
Politics
Market
23%
Agent
18%
-4.8pp
58% conf
2026-10-05
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
23%
-1.1pp
49% conf
2026-10-05
Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.0pp
77% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
14%
Agent
14%
-0.3pp
61% conf
2026-10-05
Rain in Los Angeles in Oct 2026? — Above 1 inch
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
24%
Agent
22%
-2.4pp
62% conf
2026-10-05
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
33%
Agent
32%
-1.0pp
45% conf
2026-10-05
Rain in Dallas in Oct 2026? — Above 6 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
55%
Agent
52%
-2.8pp
57% conf
2026-10-05
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?
polymarket
Elections
Market
56%
Agent
53%
-3.1pp
57% conf
2026-10-05
How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? — Above 20 inches
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
39%
Agent
52%
+12.8pp
48% conf
2026-10-05
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
89%
+0.3pp
72% conf
2026-10-05
Will Donald Trump visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-1.2pp
65% conf
2026-10-05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
35%
Agent
34%
-1.4pp
55% conf
2026-10-05
Will any federal or state court rule finds that fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
6%
-5.4pp
74% conf
2026-10-05
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.7pp
65% conf
2026-10-05
Will Parti Québécois finish 2nd in the 2026 Quebec general election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
16%
Agent
15%
-1.2pp
65% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
62%
Agent
60%
-1.7pp
61% conf
2026-10-05
Will the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 (seasonally adjusted) for 2026 fall below 7.5%? — Yes
kalshi
Economics
Market
25%
Agent
7%
-17.6pp
76% conf
2026-10-05
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
53%
Agent
51%
-1.8pp
53% conf
2026-10-05
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
52%
Agent
55%
+2.6pp
56% conf
2026-10-05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
72%
Agent
73%
+0.6pp
58% conf
2026-10-05
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
90%
Agent
91%
+1.4pp
76% conf
2026-10-05
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
20%
Agent
20%
-0.3pp
53% conf
2026-10-05
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
23%
Agent
22%
-1.4pp
58% conf
2026-10-05
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
13%
Agent
13%
-0.4pp
55% conf
2026-10-05
Will 2 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
30%
Agent
27%
-3.2pp
63% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
55%
Agent
53%
-1.3pp
52% conf
2026-10-05
Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
86%
Agent
84%
-2.4pp
56% conf
2026-10-05
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
11%
+3.2pp
59% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? — Before 2027
kalshi
Economics
Market
74%
Agent
75%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
36%
Agent
39%
+2.1pp
61% conf
2026-10-05
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
13%
-2.8pp
65% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
58%
Agent
55%
-3.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-05
Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
29%
Agent
28%
-1.4pp
59% conf
2026-10-05
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
polymarket
Elections
Market
36%
Agent
37%
+0.3pp
57% conf
2026-10-05
Which countries will have recessions? — United Kingdom
kalshi
Economics
Market
15%
Agent
9%
-6.2pp
79% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
46%
Agent
46%
+0.1pp
57% conf
2026-10-05
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
kalshi
Politics
Market
72%
Agent
70%
-1.6pp
54% conf
2026-10-05
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
54%
Agent
53%
-0.8pp
56% conf
2026-10-05
Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026? — Rating reduced
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.6pp
69% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
10%
+2.2pp
65% conf
2026-10-05
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
93%
Agent
89%
-4.2pp
66% conf
2026-10-05
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.4pp
75% conf
2026-10-05
Will Pope Leo XIV visit United States before Jan 1, 2027? — USA
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.1pp
82% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
48%
Agent
48%
-0.4pp
55% conf
2026-10-05
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026? — Above $7.00
kalshi
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
18%
-2.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
42%
Agent
43%
+0.9pp
60% conf
2026-10-05
Will any Republican member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment before 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-2.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-05
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-1.7pp
64% conf
2026-10-05
Will permanent daylight savings become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.0pp
73% conf
2026-10-05
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
73%
Agent
74%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-05
Colombia wage growth minus inflation above 4.00 pp in 2027?
kalshi
Economics
Market
19%
Agent
16%
-3.2pp
63% conf
2026-10-05
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
7%
+0.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-05
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027? — FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
9%
-2.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-05
Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
90%
Agent
92%
+1.2pp
64% conf
2026-10-05
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2026? — Before 2027
kalshi
Companies
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
77% conf
2026-10-05
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
polymarket
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.4pp
74% conf
2026-10-04
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 4th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
19%
Agent
15%
-4.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
88%
-3.8pp
67% conf
2026-10-04
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.2pp
77% conf
2026-10-04
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.1pp
75% conf
2026-10-04
Will Donald Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
38%
Agent
36%
-1.6pp
58% conf
2026-10-04
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?
polymarket
Politics
Market
91%
Agent
92%
+1.0pp
76% conf
2026-10-04
Will the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 5%? — Lula da Silva, 0-5%
kalshi
Elections
Market
39%
Agent
29%
-10.2pp
54% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
24%
Agent
24%
+0.9pp
64% conf
2026-10-04
How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026? — Above 11
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
17%
Agent
17%
+0.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-04
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
polymarket
Elections
Market
67%
Agent
66%
-1.0pp
57% conf
2026-10-04
Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
11%
Agent
8%
-2.8pp
69% conf
2026-10-04
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
polymarket
Politics
Market
21%
Agent
17%
-4.4pp
61% conf
2026-10-04
Who will be the next CEO of X? — Elon Musk
kalshi
Companies
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.6pp
68% conf
2026-10-04
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
23%
+4.9pp
56% conf
2026-10-04
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1515
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
26%
Agent
30%
+3.8pp
46% conf
2026-10-04
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
92%
Agent
91%
-1.4pp
71% conf
2026-10-04
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
49%
Agent
46%
-2.6pp
49% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
66%
Agent
65%
-0.4pp
60% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? — Fed maintains rate
kalshi
Economics
Market
28%
Agent
30%
+1.6pp
58% conf
2026-10-04
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
69%
-3.7pp
63% conf
2026-10-04
Will anyone win outright in the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.1pp
76% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
72%
-0.7pp
63% conf
2026-10-04
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
35%
Agent
34%
-0.6pp
57% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
77%
Agent
76%
-1.2pp
58% conf
2026-10-04
Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
9%
-2.2pp
71% conf
2026-10-04
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
polymarket
Companies
Market
36%
Agent
37%
+0.2pp
52% conf
2026-10-04
Will legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.2pp
73% conf
2026-10-04
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
24%
-1.9pp
60% conf
2026-10-04
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-2.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-04
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.1pp
67% conf
2026-10-04
Will legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
7%
-0.5pp
67% conf
2026-10-04
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
21%
-3.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-04
Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
22%
Agent
22%
-0.4pp
60% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
64%
Agent
62%
-1.7pp
60% conf
2026-10-04
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
27%
Agent
20%
-7.4pp
62% conf
2026-10-04
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
68%
Agent
62%
-6.5pp
51% conf
2026-10-04
When will marijuana be rescheduled? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-2.3pp
72% conf
2026-10-04
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
19%
+2.5pp
56% conf
2026-10-04
Will Musk have a net worth more than 1400 billion dollars before 2027? — More than $1.4 trillion
kalshi
Economics
Market
15%
Agent
46%
+31.0pp
61% conf
2026-10-04
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
74%
Agent
75%
+1.3pp
67% conf
2026-10-04
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Jan 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
39%
Agent
36%
-2.6pp
59% conf
2026-10-04
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
30%
Agent
34%
+3.1pp
59% conf
2026-10-04
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 368 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
19%
Agent
12%
-7.2pp
67% conf
2026-10-04
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
45%
Agent
42%
-3.4pp
55% conf
2026-10-04
NYC Health sewer-entry warning before Nov 1, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
14%
Agent
10%
-4.0pp
65% conf
2026-10-04
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
34%
Agent
34%
-0.6pp
53% conf
2026-10-04
Will NVIDIA Corporation report above 52000 total employees in 2027?
kalshi
Financials
Market
38%
Agent
37%
-1.2pp
48% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
34%
Agent
35%
+1.9pp
63% conf
2026-10-04
Will California have at least 305 data centers this year?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
43%
Agent
28%
-14.6pp
57% conf
2026-10-04
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
78%
Agent
76%
-1.5pp
65% conf
2026-10-04
Will Alexei Kitaev win the Nobel Physics?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
25%
Agent
16%
-8.6pp
59% conf
2026-10-04
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
22%
-3.3pp
60% conf
2026-10-04
Will Trump make 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Oct 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
13%
Agent
16%
+3.0pp
53% conf
2026-10-04
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.4pp
68% conf
2026-10-04
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
55%
Agent
51%
-4.2pp
56% conf
2026-10-04
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-4.0pp
68% conf
2026-10-04
Will Netflix complete Phase 1A of Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth before Sep 23, 2027?
kalshi
Companies
Market
62%
Agent
62%
+0.4pp
57% conf
2026-10-04
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
21%
Agent
21%
-0.0pp
56% conf
2026-10-04
Inflation surge in 2026? — At least 4.5%
kalshi
Economics
Market
24%
Agent
23%
-0.9pp
62% conf
2026-10-04
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
66%
Agent
65%
-1.3pp
60% conf
2026-10-03
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?
kalshi
Companies
Market
31%
Agent
19%
-11.8pp
59% conf
2026-10-03
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
31%
Agent
29%
-2.4pp
59% conf
2026-10-03
Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $225 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
84%
Agent
77%
-7.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-03
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
52%
Agent
53%
+0.9pp
54% conf
2026-10-03
Will SpaceX run an ad during the Big Game 2027?
kalshi
Companies
Market
23%
Agent
23%
-0.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-03
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
40%
Agent
44%
+4.6pp
53% conf
2026-10-03
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?
kalshi
Companies
Market
62%
Agent
40%
-22.4pp
54% conf
2026-10-03
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.9pp
61% conf
2026-10-03
Will there be at least 3 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.2pp
63% conf
2026-10-03
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
73%
+0.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-03
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
20%
Agent
14%
-5.8pp
69% conf
2026-10-03
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
11%
+0.1pp
65% conf
2026-10-03
Will NYC subway ridership reach 90% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027? — 4.19 million
kalshi
Companies
Market
55%
Agent
34%
-20.8pp
53% conf
2026-10-03
US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.0pp
80% conf
2026-10-03
Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-2.1pp
71% conf
2026-10-03
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
polymarket
Politics
Market
28%
Agent
23%
-5.3pp
62% conf
2026-10-03
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the primary to select the French pôle socialiste’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
74%
Agent
81%
+7.0pp
68% conf
2026-10-03
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
9%
Agent
8%
-1.2pp
67% conf
2026-10-03
Will Kentucky private employment in Distilleries (NAICS 312140) for June 2026 be above 7,542 jobs?
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
10%
+1.2pp
62% conf
2026-10-03
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
76%
Agent
77%
+0.5pp
67% conf
2026-10-03
Will the 2026 Alaska Senate election consist of 2 rounds?
kalshi
Elections
Market
24%
Agent
5%
-19.4pp
85% conf
2026-10-03
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
polymarket
World
Market
25%
Agent
26%
+1.4pp
54% conf
2026-10-03
Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 30000 in 2026? — Above 30,000
kalshi
Elections
Market
69%
Agent
63%
-6.0pp
52% conf
2026-10-03
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
17%
-1.4pp
55% conf
2026-10-03
Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?
kalshi
Elections
Market
25%
Agent
23%
-2.2pp
59% conf
2026-10-03
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
7%
-3.3pp
67% conf
2026-10-03
Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $6.40?
kalshi
Economics
Market
27%
Agent
31%
+3.6pp
57% conf
2026-10-03
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-0.9pp
62% conf
2026-10-03
Will any tech company announce One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
23%
-5.4pp
58% conf
2026-10-03
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.8pp
64% conf
2026-10-03
Will Alfred Cannan become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
30%
Agent
28%
-1.8pp
52% conf
2026-10-03
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
14%
Agent
8%
-5.9pp
70% conf
2026-10-03
X re-launches Vine in 2026? — Before 2027
kalshi
Companies
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.8pp
69% conf
2026-10-03
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
8%
+0.9pp
66% conf
2026-10-03
Will Kansas US Senate have the largest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate?
kalshi
Elections
Market
37%
Agent
42%
+4.6pp
50% conf
2026-10-03
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Politics
Market
24%
Agent
20%
-4.0pp
58% conf
2026-10-03
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
39%
Agent
41%
+2.2pp
57% conf
2026-10-03
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
28%
Agent
26%
-2.3pp
62% conf
2026-10-03
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $65 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
55%
Agent
44%
-10.8pp
53% conf
2026-10-03
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.1pp
72% conf
2026-10-03
Will Donald Trump endorse Benjamin Netanyahu in the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 28, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
15%
Agent
15%
+0.2pp
64% conf
2026-10-03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.4pp
70% conf
2026-10-03
Who will win the 2026 St. Petersburg, Florida mayoral election? — Charlie Crist
kalshi
Elections
Market
89%
Agent
89%
+0.0pp
72% conf
2026-10-03
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.9pp
71% conf
2026-10-03
How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027? — Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter
kalshi
Companies
Market
59%
Agent
57%
-2.4pp
61% conf
2026-10-03
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
16%
Agent
10%
-5.1pp
61% conf
2026-10-03
Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.2pp
73% conf
2026-10-03
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-0.7pp
63% conf
2026-10-03
Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 48 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? — Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House AND hold 48 or more seats in the Senate?
kalshi
Elections
Market
93%
Agent
90%
-3.0pp
64% conf
2026-10-03
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.8pp
66% conf
2026-10-03
Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
27%
Agent
24%
-3.4pp
60% conf
2026-10-03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
82%
Agent
83%
+0.3pp
70% conf
2026-10-03
Will Oct 2026 be the hottest Oct ever? — Hottest ever
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
55%
Agent
47%
-7.6pp
46% conf
2026-10-03
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
polymarket
Elections
Market
80%
Agent
79%
-1.2pp
62% conf
2026-10-03
Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.6pp
70% conf
2026-10-03
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
90%
Agent
76%
-14.5pp
57% conf
2026-10-03
When will Dodge release Dodge Challenger Hellcat to the public?
kalshi
Companies
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
82% conf
2026-10-03
Iran leadership change by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
12%
+0.1pp
61% conf
2026-10-03
250 or more locally acquired dengue cases in Florida during 2026
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
93%
Agent
97%
+4.1pp
86% conf
2026-10-03
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
28%
Agent
16%
-11.9pp
63% conf
2026-10-02
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.4 million available lower berth days in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
24%
Agent
25%
+0.6pp
60% conf
2026-10-02
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
polymarket
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.9pp
69% conf
2026-10-02
Red wave in 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-3.6pp
76% conf
2026-10-02
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
polymarket
Health
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.3pp
73% conf
2026-10-02
Will NJ TRANSIT's systemwide monthly rail on-time performance, all causes (not the Amtrak-adjusted figure) be above 90 in November 2026? — Above 90%
kalshi
Elections
Market
19%
Agent
20%
+0.6pp
61% conf
2026-10-02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
88%
Agent
86%
-2.1pp
64% conf
2026-10-02
Top coding AI on October 31, 2026 (Arena.ai)? — Claude
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
72%
Agent
72%
-0.2pp
61% conf
2026-10-02
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?
polymarket
Elections
Market
68%
Agent
69%
+1.7pp
60% conf
2026-10-02
Will any company announce acquisition of PayPal before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Companies
Market
19%
Agent
14%
-4.8pp
63% conf
2026-10-02
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.7pp
64% conf
2026-10-02
When will JUUL release Mango to the public?
kalshi
Companies
Market
10%
Agent
5%
-5.2pp
76% conf
2026-10-02
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
88%
+0.9pp
74% conf
2026-10-02
Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 70,000
kalshi
Economics
Market
38%
Agent
38%
+0.2pp
58% conf
2026-10-02
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
7%
-2.7pp
69% conf
2026-10-02
Will xAI release a video game before 2027?
kalshi
Companies
Market
11%
Agent
34%
+23.2pp
58% conf
2026-10-02
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
88%
Agent
90%
+2.1pp
70% conf
2026-10-02
Will Citigroup take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Companies
Market
11%
Agent
6%
-4.8pp
71% conf
2026-10-02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
15%
-0.9pp
64% conf
2026-10-02
Will any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto for any of their core services in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
35%
Agent
36%
+0.8pp
50% conf
2026-10-02
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
69% conf
2026-10-02
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%? — Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
kalshi
Elections
Market
17%
Agent
18%
+0.8pp
60% conf
2026-10-02
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
38%
Agent
22%
-15.1pp
60% conf
2026-10-02
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
21%
Agent
16%
-5.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-02
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.8pp
68% conf
2026-10-02
Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
26%
Agent
15%
-11.0pp
59% conf
2026-10-02
Spain snap election called in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
47%
Agent
46%
-1.2pp
51% conf
2026-10-02
Will the number of Iowa races won by the Democratic Party among IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, the U.S. Senate seat, and the Governorship during the November 3, 2026 general election be exactly 5? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
30%
Agent
28%
-1.6pp
59% conf
2026-10-02
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
68%
Agent
66%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-10-02
Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
76%
Agent
73%
-2.8pp
61% conf
2026-10-02
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
polymarket
Financials
Market
86%
Agent
87%
+0.9pp
69% conf
2026-10-02
New Scottish referendum called before 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
3%
-4.6pp
83% conf
2026-10-02
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
80%
Agent
80%
-0.7pp
66% conf
2026-10-02
Will Tesla Inc report above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
kalshi
Companies
Market
21%
Agent
14%
-6.8pp
65% conf
2026-10-02
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
16%
Agent
15%
-0.1pp
66% conf
2026-10-02
Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026? — 5 or more
kalshi
Elections
Market
50%
Agent
48%
-1.6pp
61% conf
2026-10-02
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
36%
Agent
18%
-18.1pp
62% conf
2026-10-02
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026? — Above 4.2 million
kalshi
Elections
Market
89%
Agent
89%
-0.4pp
66% conf
2026-10-02
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
82%
Agent
80%
-2.5pp
63% conf
2026-10-02
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
16%
Agent
13%
-2.6pp
67% conf
2026-10-02
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
13%
-2.2pp
65% conf
2026-10-02
Top Chinese AI company on October 31, 2026? — Moonshot
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
18%
+11.0pp
45% conf
2026-10-02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.9pp
70% conf
2026-10-02
Will exactly 0 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
92%
-0.6pp
75% conf
2026-10-02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
15%
-5.1pp
65% conf
2026-10-02
Will OpenRouter AI token usage for October 2026 (Sep 28–Oct 25) be above 550T tokens?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
46%
Agent
70%
+23.8pp
56% conf
2026-10-02
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
20%
+0.2pp
69% conf
2026-10-02
Tesla Roadsters delivered before 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi
Companies
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.4pp
84% conf
2026-10-02
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
76%
Agent
74%
-2.0pp
62% conf
2026-10-02
How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? — Above 500000 in a single quarter
kalshi
Companies
Market
53%
Agent
52%
-0.8pp
47% conf
2026-10-02
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.7pp
73% conf
2026-10-02
Will JFET leave the John Fetterman?
kalshi
Elections
Market
11%
Agent
8%
-2.6pp
69% conf
2026-10-02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
15%
Agent
13%
-1.8pp
67% conf
2026-10-02
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
kalshi
Elections
Market
17%
Agent
15%
-1.6pp
57% conf
2026-10-02
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
polymarket
Politics
Market
42%
Agent
39%
-2.1pp
53% conf
2026-10-02
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 53 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? — Below 53
kalshi
Elections
Market
65%
Agent
76%
+11.4pp
63% conf
2026-10-02
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
21%
Agent
16%
-4.8pp
61% conf
2026-10-02
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Oct 16, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+0.6pp
72% conf
2026-10-02
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
20%
Agent
20%
-0.5pp
61% conf
2026-10-02
How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026? — Above 12
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
15%
+7.4pp
56% conf
2026-10-02
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
17%
Agent
14%
-2.6pp
62% conf
2026-10-02
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms? — Democratic Party
kalshi
Elections
Market
69%
Agent
67%
-1.8pp
59% conf
2026-10-01
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
polymarket
World
Market
84%
Agent
82%
-1.9pp
64% conf
2026-10-01
Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
86%
Agent
92%
+6.0pp
73% conf
2026-10-01
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
20%
Agent
18%
-2.7pp
62% conf
2026-10-01
Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027? — Democratic party wins
kalshi
Elections
Market
61%
Agent
56%
-5.4pp
62% conf
2026-10-01
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.9pp
56% conf
2026-10-01
Will there be more than 12 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? — Above 12
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
31%
Agent
17%
-14.0pp
60% conf
2026-10-01
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
76%
Agent
76%
+0.1pp
63% conf
2026-10-01
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? — Susan Collins
kalshi
Elections
Market
44%
Agent
47%
+2.6pp
60% conf
2026-10-01
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
30%
Agent
30%
+0.1pp
60% conf
2026-10-01
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Amazon
kalshi
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
17%
+1.0pp
56% conf
2026-10-01
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
32%
Agent
36%
+3.9pp
55% conf
2026-10-01
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
19%
Agent
13%
-5.8pp
66% conf
2026-10-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
22%
Agent
21%
-0.3pp
62% conf
2026-10-01
Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election? — Nithya Raman
kalshi
Elections
Market
60%
Agent
62%
+2.4pp
61% conf
2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
50%
Agent
49%
-1.0pp
58% conf
2026-10-01
Will Copper Mountain open before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
46%
Agent
13%
-32.8pp
72% conf
2026-10-01
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
82%
Agent
78%
-3.7pp
62% conf
2026-10-01
Will John Preskill win the Nobel Physics?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
15%
Agent
7%
-8.4pp
69% conf
2026-10-01
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+1.4pp
60% conf
2026-10-01
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.84 on Dec 31?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-3.0pp
79% conf
2026-10-01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
84%
Agent
70%
-14.5pp
49% conf
2026-10-01
Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Mar 31, 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
35%
Agent
39%
+4.2pp
57% conf
2026-10-01
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
61%
Agent
57%
-3.8pp
59% conf
2026-10-01
Will there be more than 7 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? — Above 7
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
29%
Agent
28%
-0.8pp
58% conf
2026-10-01
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.2pp
64% conf
2026-10-01
Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Mar 1, 2027? — Before March, 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
12%
Agent
8%
-3.6pp
70% conf
2026-10-01
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
4%
-3.5pp
81% conf
2026-10-01
Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.0°C?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
92%
Agent
94%
+2.3pp
79% conf
2026-10-01
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
20%
Agent
23%
+2.5pp
56% conf
2026-10-01
How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026? — At least 40
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
33%
Agent
28%
-4.8pp
57% conf
2026-10-01
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
34%
Agent
37%
+2.7pp
57% conf
2026-10-01
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
27%
-16.8pp
57% conf
2026-10-01
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
77%
Agent
80%
+3.2pp
68% conf
2026-10-01
Above 9000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 9k
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
80%
Agent
75%
-5.0pp
51% conf
2026-10-01
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-0.8pp
69% conf
2026-10-01
Will Heavenly Mountain Resort open before Nov 22, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
74%
Agent
66%
-7.8pp
56% conf
2026-10-01
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
22%
Agent
24%
+2.3pp
62% conf
2026-10-01
Will Rachel become a Category 4 hurricane? — Category 4 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
60%
Agent
69%
+8.6pp
63% conf
2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
56%
Agent
57%
+0.7pp
51% conf
2026-10-01
Above 500000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 500k
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
12%
Agent
5%
-7.0pp
78% conf
2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
36%
Agent
36%
-1.0pp
54% conf
2026-10-01
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 40.5%?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
11%
+3.0pp
66% conf
2026-10-01
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
28%
Agent
13%
-14.5pp
66% conf
2026-10-01
Above 20000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 20k
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
92%
Agent
93%
+1.2pp
78% conf
2026-10-01
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.7pp
66% conf
2026-10-01
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7999.99 by Jan 1, 2027? — 8,000 or above
kalshi
Financials
Market
55%
Agent
54%
-1.1pp
61% conf
2026-10-01
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
31%
Agent
31%
+0.4pp
60% conf
2026-10-01
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
12%
Agent
8%
-3.8pp
74% conf
2026-10-01
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
24%
Agent
8%
-15.9pp
71% conf
2026-10-01
Will Park City Mountain open before Nov 22, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
84%
Agent
70%
-14.4pp
56% conf
2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
80%
Agent
79%
-1.1pp
64% conf
2026-10-01
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.97 by Dec 31?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
50%
Agent
78%
+28.4pp
59% conf
2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
27%
Agent
29%
+1.8pp
59% conf
2026-10-01
Will Lala become a Category 1 hurricane? — Category 1 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
92%
Agent
96%
+4.2pp
88% conf
2026-10-01
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
11%
+1.9pp
61% conf
2026-10-01
Will Meta release A model called Llama 5 or greater before Jan 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-2.6pp
80% conf
2026-10-01
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
34%
Agent
19%
-15.9pp
64% conf
2026-10-01
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 480000 total deliveries in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
70%
Agent
67%
-3.0pp
57% conf
2026-10-01
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026
polymarket
Companies
Market
88%
Agent
78%
-9.7pp
53% conf
2026-10-01
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 470000 total deliveries in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
88%
Agent
86%
-2.2pp
64% conf
2026-10-01
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
11%
Agent
20%
+9.4pp
53% conf
2026-09-30
Best AI in Oct 2026? — Claude
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
23%
Agent
26%
+2.6pp
62% conf
2026-09-30
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
5%
-5.2pp
74% conf
2026-09-30
When will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron? — Before March 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
26%
Agent
19%
-6.8pp
64% conf
2026-09-30
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.2pp
66% conf
2026-09-30
Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
54%
Agent
49%
-5.2pp
55% conf
2026-09-30
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
36%
Agent
23%
-13.7pp
59% conf
2026-09-30
Will Rachel become a Category 3 hurricane? — Category 3 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
86%
Agent
83%
-3.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-30
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
12%
Agent
19%
+6.9pp
53% conf
2026-09-30
Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
51%
Agent
51%
-0.2pp
46% conf
2026-09-30
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
28%
Agent
14%
-14.4pp
66% conf
2026-09-30
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1500
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
63%
Agent
61%
-2.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-30
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
30%
Agent
11%
-18.7pp
71% conf
2026-09-30
Will Stowe Mountain Resort open before Nov 29, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
86%
Agent
83%
-3.4pp
63% conf
2026-09-30
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
17%
Agent
19%
+1.6pp
58% conf
2026-09-30
Fear & Greed Index on Oct 9, 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
53%
Agent
59%
+5.6pp
57% conf
2026-09-30
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
13%
+0.1pp
62% conf
2026-09-30
Will Ford Motor Company report Above 510 thousand total vehicles us sales volume in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
16%
Agent
19%
+3.2pp
66% conf
2026-09-30
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
20%
Agent
16%
-4.5pp
61% conf
2026-09-30
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
88%
Agent
88%
-0.2pp
66% conf
2026-09-30
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
polymarket
Economics
Market
62%
Agent
58%
-4.3pp
56% conf
2026-09-29
Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.5°C?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
79%
Agent
77%
-1.8pp
66% conf
2026-09-29
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Health
Market
8%
Agent
3%
-5.4pp
73% conf
2026-09-29
Will Snowbird open before Dec 13, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
92%
Agent
90%
-2.4pp
65% conf
2026-09-29
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
28%
Agent
17%
-11.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-29
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? — Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
2%
-4.5pp
90% conf
2026-09-29
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?
polymarket
Elections
Market
74%
Agent
73%
-1.2pp
59% conf
2026-09-29
Will the temperature in San Jose drop below 40°F in December 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
88%
Agent
91%
+3.2pp
70% conf
2026-09-29
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
18%
+1.9pp
50% conf
2026-09-29
Will exactly 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
48%
Agent
43%
-5.2pp
57% conf
2026-09-29
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+0.4pp
73% conf
2026-09-29
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
38%
Agent
35%
-3.0pp
64% conf
2026-09-29
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
92%
Agent
88%
-4.1pp
64% conf
2026-09-29
Will Bald Mountain open before Nov 22, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-2.6pp
80% conf
2026-09-29
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
11%
+0.7pp
62% conf
2026-09-29
Sep 2026 temperature increase? — 1.30001 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
85%
Agent
90%
+4.8pp
72% conf
2026-09-29
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
84%
Agent
82%
-2.4pp
68% conf
2026-09-29
Will Pennsylvania have at least 195 data centers listed in 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
55%
Agent
52%
-2.6pp
50% conf
2026-09-29
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
polymarket
Economics
Market
48%
Agent
46%
-2.2pp
60% conf
2026-09-29
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in December 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
93%
Agent
88%
-4.8pp
67% conf
2026-09-29
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
polymarket
Companies
Market
24%
Agent
18%
-6.1pp
65% conf
2026-09-28
Will Pennsylvania have at least 185 data centers listed in 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
64%
Agent
67%
+3.2pp
54% conf
2026-09-28
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
82%
Agent
84%
+2.3pp
68% conf
2026-09-28
Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
12%
Agent
6%
-5.6pp
74% conf
2026-09-28
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
45%
Agent
47%
+1.8pp
54% conf
2026-09-28
Will WTI Crude Oil outperform Brent Crude Oil?
kalshi
Financials
Market
21%
Agent
20%
-1.4pp
61% conf
2026-09-28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
48%
Agent
47%
-1.2pp
51% conf
2026-09-28
Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
33%
Agent
28%
-5.2pp
62% conf
2026-09-28
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
32%
Agent
31%
-1.9pp
52% conf
2026-09-28
Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen? — Before 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
14%
Agent
7%
-7.2pp
71% conf
2026-09-28
Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
18%
Agent
15%
-2.3pp
63% conf
2026-09-28
Will Nolo become a Category 5 hurricane? — Category 5 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
63%
Agent
73%
+10.2pp
65% conf
2026-09-28
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
91%
Agent
92%
+1.7pp
75% conf
2026-09-28
Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
75%
Agent
49%
-26.2pp
49% conf
2026-09-28
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
8%
Agent
9%
+1.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-28
Will Apple release a Mac with cellular connectivity before 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+0.8pp
67% conf
2026-09-28
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
32%
Agent
34%
+1.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-28
Will Amazon.com Inc. report Above 1.56 million employees (full-time & part-time, excl. contractors/temps) in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
93%
Agent
93%
-0.4pp
77% conf
2026-09-28
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
16%
Agent
6%
-9.9pp
74% conf
2026-09-28
Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-1.2pp
64% conf
2026-09-28
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
82%
Agent
82%
-0.2pp
67% conf
2026-09-27
Will Breckenridge Ski Resort open before Nov 8, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
70%
Agent
70%
+0.4pp
59% conf
2026-09-27
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.9pp
66% conf
2026-09-27
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? — Before 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
11%
Agent
6%
-4.8pp
73% conf
2026-09-27
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
23%
+0.7pp
61% conf
2026-09-27
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? — Earbuds/Headphones
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
10%
Agent
7%
-2.6pp
66% conf
2026-09-27
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
22%
-0.4pp
54% conf
2026-09-27
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 33 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
79%
Agent
74%
-4.6pp
58% conf
2026-09-27
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
14%
Agent
4%
-10.5pp
78% conf
2026-09-27
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
19%
Agent
17%
-1.8pp
61% conf
2026-09-27
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
22%
-4.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-27
Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? — Above 10
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
29%
Agent
22%
-6.6pp
63% conf
2026-09-27
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
83%
Agent
84%
+0.6pp
69% conf
2026-09-27
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1520 score
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
74%
Agent
54%
-19.8pp
52% conf
2026-09-27
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
88%
+0.4pp
75% conf
2026-09-27
NYC Health sewer-entry warning before Nov 1, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
11%
Agent
7%
-4.2pp
67% conf
2026-09-27
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
10%
Agent
12%
+2.3pp
54% conf
2026-09-27
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1039 feet in Dec 2026? — Above 1039 Ft
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
11%
Agent
7%
-4.0pp
74% conf
2026-09-27
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
71%
Agent
73%
+1.8pp
62% conf
2026-09-27
Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
76%
Agent
76%
+0.2pp
62% conf
2026-09-27
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
39%
-4.9pp
57% conf
2026-09-26
Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
24%
Agent
20%
-3.8pp
59% conf
2026-09-26
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
57%
Agent
58%
+0.7pp
51% conf
2026-09-26
Will Fay become a Category 1 hurricane? — Category 1 or above
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
8%
Agent
3%
-4.9pp
82% conf
2026-09-26
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
15%
Agent
15%
-0.2pp
64% conf
2026-09-26
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026? — Above 0.4%
kalshi
Economics
Market
84%
Agent
85%
+0.6pp
69% conf
2026-09-26
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
36%
+8.2pp
55% conf
2026-09-26
Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? — Above 4
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-3.9pp
83% conf
2026-09-26
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
90%
+0.4pp
67% conf
2026-09-26
Will the AAA national average price for diesel on November 3, 2026 be above $7.00?
kalshi
Economics
Market
18%
Agent
14%
-4.2pp
66% conf
2026-09-26
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
31%
Agent
31%
+0.4pp
53% conf
2026-09-26
Will Big Sky open before Nov 29, 2026?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
58%
Agent
72%
+13.8pp
60% conf
2026-09-26
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
polymarket
Economics
Market
63%
Agent
57%
-6.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-26
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
70%
Agent
73%
+2.8pp
62% conf
2026-09-26
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 15, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
30%
Agent
42%
+12.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-26
Will the AAA national average price for diesel on November 3, 2026 be above $7.20?
kalshi
Economics
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-1.4pp
64% conf
2026-09-26
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
28%
+2.4pp
53% conf
2026-09-26
Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT? — Before 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
7%
+0.3pp
74% conf
2026-09-26
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
14%
Agent
14%
-0.5pp
58% conf
2026-09-26
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? — Anthropic
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
75%
Agent
74%
-0.8pp
62% conf
2026-09-26
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
11%
Agent
11%
-0.0pp
63% conf
2026-09-25
Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026? — Grants license
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
9%
Agent
4%
-5.4pp
82% conf
2026-09-25
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
84%
Agent
81%
-3.0pp
59% conf
2026-09-25
Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
58%
Agent
48%
-9.6pp
49% conf
2026-09-25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
38%
Agent
33%
-4.3pp
62% conf
2026-09-25
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be at least 3.0°C?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
49%
Agent
39%
-9.8pp
53% conf
2026-09-25
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
70%
Agent
66%
-3.6pp
57% conf
2026-09-25
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
13%
Agent
44%
+30.8pp
80% conf
2026-09-25
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
87%
Agent
85%
-2.4pp
67% conf
2026-09-25
Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? — Before 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
14%
Agent
14%
+0.2pp
60% conf
2026-09-25
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-2.2pp
66% conf
2026-09-25
Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.4pp
76% conf
2026-09-25
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
18%
Agent
17%
-0.8pp
65% conf
2026-09-25
Will the FDA approve Any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
29%
Agent
23%
-5.6pp
61% conf
2026-09-25
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
70%
Agent
70%
+0.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-25
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026? — 5.15% or above
kalshi
Financials
Market
60%
Agent
56%
-4.2pp
54% conf
2026-09-25
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
58%
Agent
47%
-11.1pp
52% conf
2026-09-25
Claude Pro (monthly) price increase in 2026? — Before 2027
kalshi
Financials
Market
15%
Agent
5%
-10.4pp
78% conf
2026-09-25
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
18%
-3.9pp
62% conf
2026-09-25
Will American Express Company report Above 156 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
29%
Agent
35%
+6.0pp
46% conf
2026-09-25
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
22%
Agent
26%
+3.7pp
59% conf
2026-09-24
Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? — Above 2
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-3.6pp
82% conf
2026-09-24
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
87%
-0.5pp
69% conf
2026-09-24
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season? — Before 2027
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
9%
Agent
16%
+7.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-24
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
polymarket
Companies
Market
92%
Agent
87%
-4.1pp
61% conf
2026-09-24
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 40.5%?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
17%
+9.8pp
62% conf
2026-09-24
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
8%
+0.2pp
60% conf
2026-09-24
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? — Claude
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
71%
Agent
71%
-0.4pp
61% conf
2026-09-24
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
16%
Agent
17%
+1.2pp
68% conf
2026-09-24
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026? — 4.75% or above
kalshi
Financials
Market
74%
Agent
78%
+4.4pp
66% conf
2026-09-24
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
4%
-3.9pp
87% conf
2026-09-24
CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.7%
kalshi
Economics
Market
32%
Agent
29%
-3.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-24
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
9%
Agent
10%
+0.6pp
65% conf
2026-09-24
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
67%
Agent
60%
-6.2pp
52% conf
2026-09-24
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
34%
Agent
28%
-5.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-24
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? — Hike 25bps
kalshi
World
Market
19%
Agent
24%
+5.2pp
56% conf
2026-09-24
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.2pp
78% conf
2026-09-24
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $6.50 in January 2027?
kalshi
Financials
Market
24%
Agent
22%
-2.4pp
56% conf
2026-09-24
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
23%
-0.8pp
46% conf
2026-09-24
Arizona Iced Tea price increase in 2026? — anything greater than 0%
kalshi
Financials
Market
9%
Agent
3%
-6.2pp
84% conf
2026-09-24
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
36%
Agent
34%
-1.7pp
56% conf
2026-09-23
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in October 2026? — Above 0.0%
kalshi
Economics
Market
89%
Agent
88%
-1.4pp
64% conf
2026-09-23
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
polymarket
Elections
Market
42%
Agent
33%
-8.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-23
Will Lemonade Inc. report Above 3.5 million total customers in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
51%
Agent
64%
+12.8pp
58% conf
2026-09-23
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
85%
-3.2pp
66% conf
2026-09-23
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29 million funded customers in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
14%
Agent
9%
-5.4pp
78% conf
2026-09-23
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
64%
Agent
60%
-3.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-23
Will The Cheesecake Factory Inc. report Above 5.5% comparable restaurant sales in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
84%
Agent
82%
-2.2pp
68% conf
2026-09-23
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
70%
Agent
63%
-6.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-23
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
40%
Agent
34%
-6.4pp
57% conf
2026-09-23
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
18%
Agent
20%
+2.3pp
65% conf
2026-09-23
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? — 22,800 or below
kalshi
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-2.6pp
76% conf
2026-09-23
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-0.9pp
62% conf
2026-09-23
CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026? — Exactly 0.4%
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+1.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-23
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
50%
Agent
57%
+7.2pp
48% conf
2026-09-23
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in September? — Above 0.2%
kalshi
Economics
Market
42%
Agent
43%
+0.6pp
58% conf
2026-09-23
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
polymarket
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
3%
-4.4pp
81% conf
2026-09-23
Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map? — Before Nov 3, 2026
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
74% conf
2026-09-23
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
18%
-3.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-23
Fear & Greed Index on Oct 9, 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
50%
Agent
43%
-7.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-23
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
34%
Agent
37%
+3.5pp
53% conf
2026-09-22
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.75? — Above 3.75
kalshi
Economics
Market
92%
Agent
93%
+1.2pp
79% conf
2026-09-22
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
26%
Agent
24%
-2.9pp
64% conf
2026-09-22
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Hike 25bps
kalshi
World
Market
47%
Agent
40%
-7.2pp
59% conf
2026-09-22
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
11%
Agent
9%
-1.6pp
68% conf
2026-09-22
Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform BTC?
kalshi
Financials
Market
86%
Agent
84%
-1.6pp
61% conf
2026-09-22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
88%
-0.5pp
67% conf
2026-09-22
Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 5900.01 by Jan 1, 2027? — 5,900 or below
kalshi
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
4%
-3.3pp
74% conf
2026-09-22
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
7%
-3.4pp
68% conf
2026-09-22
Will Domino's Pizza Inc report Above 7280 total us stores in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
7%
+0.4pp
73% conf
2026-09-22
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
23%
-3.1pp
57% conf
2026-09-22
Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform Gold?
kalshi
Financials
Market
63%
Agent
72%
+9.0pp
61% conf
2026-09-22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-1.6pp
73% conf
2026-09-22
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
35%
Agent
40%
+5.0pp
58% conf
2026-09-22
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
78%
Agent
77%
-1.7pp
63% conf
2026-09-22
Will Carvana Co. report Above 215000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q3 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
51%
Agent
45%
-6.2pp
58% conf
2026-09-22
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Health
Market
8%
Agent
3%
-4.8pp
70% conf
2026-09-22
Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for September 2026 be above 444.8?
kalshi
Economics
Market
50%
Agent
48%
-2.2pp
54% conf
2026-09-22
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
93%
Agent
92%
-1.1pp
71% conf
2026-09-22
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $2.00 in December 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
20%
Agent
8%
-12.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-22
Will Headline be 0.5% or above AND Core be Exactly 0.2% for Sep 2026? — Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%
kalshi
Economics
Market
30%
Agent
32%
+1.6pp
55% conf
2026-09-21
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
26%
Agent
20%
-5.6pp
58% conf
2026-09-21
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in September? — Above 0.3%
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
15%
+5.6pp
60% conf
2026-09-21
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
19%
Agent
15%
-3.3pp
61% conf
2026-09-21
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in September 2026?
kalshi
Economics
Market
40%
Agent
39%
-1.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-21
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $3.75 in July 2027?
kalshi
Financials
Market
21%
Agent
19%
-2.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-21
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
56%
Agent
56%
-0.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-21
Will Stripe and Advent International (collectively) announce acquisition of PayPal before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
7%
-2.9pp
68% conf
2026-09-21
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
36%
Agent
36%
+0.2pp
57% conf
2026-09-21
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Nov 13, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
86%
Agent
90%
+4.4pp
73% conf
2026-09-21
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? — 32,000 or above
kalshi
Financials
Market
24%
Agent
27%
+3.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-21
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
13%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-21
Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.4pp
73% conf
2026-09-21
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
22%
Agent
16%
-6.3pp
59% conf
2026-09-21
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?
polymarket
Financials
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.9pp
55% conf
2026-09-21
Will Microsoft release a new Xbox video game console to the public before 2027?
kalshi
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.0pp
79% conf
2026-09-21
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
34%
Agent
31%
-2.1pp
52% conf
2026-09-21
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
14%
Agent
15%
+1.5pp
69% conf
2026-09-21
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
86%
Agent
83%
-3.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-21
Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
9%
-0.4pp
71% conf
2026-09-21
AI bubble burst in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
9%
-3.6pp
67% conf
2026-09-20
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
15%
-2.3pp
57% conf
2026-09-20
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
12%
+2.3pp
59% conf
2026-09-20
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
kalshi
Economics
Market
60%
Agent
57%
-2.8pp
61% conf
2026-09-20
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.4pp
65% conf
2026-09-20
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
93%
Agent
91%
-2.0pp
72% conf
2026-09-20
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.3pp
68% conf
2026-09-20
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026? — 64.99 or below
kalshi
Financials
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-0.8pp
63% conf
2026-09-20
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
11%
Agent
13%
+2.4pp
56% conf
2026-09-20
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
68% conf
2026-09-20
SBF released from custody in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.1pp
74% conf
2026-09-20
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25249.85 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? — 25,249.86 or above
kalshi
Financials
Market
82%
Agent
87%
+5.3pp
70% conf
2026-09-20
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.4pp
66% conf
2026-09-20
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
52%
Agent
52%
+0.4pp
51% conf
2026-09-20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-1.5pp
67% conf
2026-09-20
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026? — Above 0.6%
kalshi
Economics
Market
31%
Agent
23%
-8.4pp
56% conf
2026-09-20
Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
46%
Agent
35%
-11.7pp
53% conf
2026-09-20
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
28%
Agent
23%
-4.5pp
56% conf
2026-09-20
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
9%
Agent
9%
+0.4pp
67% conf
2026-09-20
Who will IPO before 2027? — OpenAI
kalshi
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
7%
-0.4pp
71% conf
2026-09-20
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
86%
Agent
87%
+0.6pp
68% conf
2026-09-20
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
polymarket
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-2.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-20
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
polymarket
Elections
Market
28%
Agent
27%
-0.3pp
54% conf
2026-09-20
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026? — Above 4.0%
kalshi
Economics
Market
32%
Agent
35%
+2.8pp
48% conf
2026-09-20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
polymarket
Elections
Market
28%
Agent
29%
+1.9pp
55% conf
2026-09-20
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
15%
Agent
14%
-0.8pp
60% conf
2026-09-20
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
91%
-1.5pp
71% conf
2026-09-20
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Fed maintains rate
kalshi
Economics
Market
44%
Agent
45%
+1.4pp
58% conf
2026-09-20
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
8%
+0.4pp
64% conf
2026-09-20
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
86%
Agent
85%
-1.9pp
64% conf
2026-09-20
Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
10%
Agent
10%
-0.5pp
58% conf
2026-09-20
Pandemic in 2026?
kalshi
Health
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.9pp
66% conf
2026-09-20
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
11%
Agent
13%
+2.2pp
57% conf
2026-09-20
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
90%
Agent
88%
-2.4pp
61% conf
2026-09-20
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
17%
-1.2pp
58% conf
2026-09-20
Will Kash Patel visit Russia before Nov 1, 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
15%
+0.8pp
52% conf
2026-09-20
Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+0.5pp
65% conf
2026-09-20
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
15%
Agent
16%
+1.3pp
52% conf
2026-09-20
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
88%
Agent
86%
-2.1pp
72% conf
2026-09-20
Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms? — Before Nov 3, 2026
kalshi
Politics
Market
19%
Agent
16%
-3.4pp
62% conf
2026-09-20
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
28%
Agent
20%
-8.1pp
57% conf
2026-09-19
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
73%
Agent
75%
+2.2pp
66% conf
2026-09-19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
12%
-0.7pp
63% conf
2026-09-19
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
10%
-0.8pp
66% conf
2026-09-19
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
39%
Agent
40%
+0.6pp
59% conf
2026-09-19
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
40%
Agent
38%
-1.5pp
56% conf
2026-09-19
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
35%
Agent
34%
-0.6pp
58% conf
2026-09-19
Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 6.9999 by Dec 31, 2026? — 7 or above
kalshi
Financials
Market
14%
Agent
7%
-6.8pp
68% conf
2026-09-19
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
79%
Agent
81%
+1.8pp
62% conf
2026-09-19
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
36%
Agent
32%
-4.5pp
53% conf
2026-09-19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
26%
Agent
21%
-4.5pp
59% conf
2026-09-19
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
34%
Agent
35%
+0.8pp
65% conf
2026-09-19
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
16%
Agent
16%
-0.9pp
63% conf
2026-09-19
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
26%
Agent
25%
-0.9pp
57% conf
2026-09-19
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
polymarket
Financials
Market
32%
Agent
42%
+10.1pp
32% conf
2026-09-19
Fear & Greed Index on Oct 2, 2026? — Extreme Fear
kalshi
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
18%
+0.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-19
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
21%
+5.7pp
55% conf
2026-09-19
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
19%
-2.3pp
58% conf
2026-09-19
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
78%
Agent
30%
-47.9pp
51% conf
2026-09-19
Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? — 8,000 to 8,199.99
kalshi
Financials
Market
17%
Agent
15%
-2.2pp
59% conf
2026-09-19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-1.9pp
67% conf
2026-09-19
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
9%
-3.7pp
67% conf
2026-09-19
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
20%
Agent
17%
-2.5pp
58% conf
2026-09-19
Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 110 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
49%
Agent
49%
+0.4pp
40% conf
2026-09-19
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
75% conf
2026-09-19
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
9%
+0.3pp
70% conf
2026-09-19
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
23%
Agent
26%
+2.7pp
54% conf
2026-09-19
Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? — Positive Growth
kalshi
Financials
Market
86%
Agent
87%
+1.2pp
71% conf
2026-09-19
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
polymarket
Economics
Market
90%
Agent
90%
+0.5pp
74% conf
2026-09-19
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
11%
+0.1pp
66% conf
2026-09-19
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
82%
Agent
78%
-3.3pp
60% conf
2026-09-19
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026? — $115.01 or above
kalshi
Financials
Market
41%
Agent
43%
+1.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-19
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
13%
-2.7pp
58% conf
2026-09-19
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
27%
+2.1pp
48% conf
2026-09-19
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
polymarket
Companies
Market
86%
Agent
79%
-6.6pp
62% conf
2026-09-19
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
16%
+4.4pp
66% conf
2026-09-19
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
15%
Agent
12%
-2.6pp
62% conf
2026-09-19
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
13%
-3.3pp
61% conf
2026-09-19
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
66%
Agent
66%
+0.3pp
56% conf
2026-09-19
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
8%
-3.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-19
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
36%
Agent
40%
+3.6pp
53% conf
2026-09-18
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
26%
Agent
29%
+3.3pp
56% conf
2026-09-18
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.3pp
76% conf
2026-09-18
Will Donald Trump endorse Benjamin Netanyahu in the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 28, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
44%
Agent
40%
-4.0pp
53% conf
2026-09-18
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
47%
Agent
44%
-3.4pp
48% conf
2026-09-18
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
82% conf
2026-09-18
Will Kansas US Senate have the largest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate?
kalshi
Elections
Market
53%
Agent
61%
+8.4pp
51% conf
2026-09-18
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
68%
Agent
54%
-14.2pp
52% conf
2026-09-18
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
71%
Agent
62%
-8.8pp
53% conf
2026-09-18
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
15%
Agent
14%
-0.6pp
63% conf
2026-09-18
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026? — Above 4.2 million
kalshi
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
81%
-7.2pp
55% conf
2026-09-18
Will the United Arab Emirates join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-4.1pp
69% conf
2026-09-18
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
86%
Agent
82%
-3.7pp
56% conf
2026-09-18
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
45%
+0.9pp
52% conf
2026-09-18
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
46%
Agent
41%
-4.8pp
54% conf
2026-09-18
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
90%
Agent
90%
-0.6pp
63% conf
2026-09-18
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
28%
Agent
21%
-7.7pp
63% conf
2026-09-18
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
20%
Agent
20%
-0.4pp
60% conf
2026-09-18
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi
Elections
Market
23%
Agent
22%
-1.0pp
66% conf
2026-09-18
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
14%
Agent
12%
-1.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-18
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
29%
Agent
27%
-2.4pp
58% conf
2026-09-18
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
polymarket
World
Market
40%
Agent
41%
+0.7pp
50% conf
2026-09-18
Will GameStop announce acquisition of eBay before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.8pp
71% conf
2026-09-18
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026
polymarket
Financials
Market
17%
Agent
16%
-1.4pp
62% conf
2026-09-18
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
31%
Agent
65%
+33.6pp
56% conf
2026-09-18
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-2.8pp
69% conf
2026-09-18
Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
87%
Agent
92%
+5.4pp
71% conf
2026-09-18
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
23%
-3.3pp
51% conf
2026-09-18
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
60%
Agent
41%
-19.5pp
45% conf
2026-09-18
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
29%
+3.3pp
41% conf
2026-09-18
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year? — In 2026
kalshi
Health
Market
12%
Agent
8%
-3.8pp
64% conf
2026-09-18
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
36%
Agent
35%
-1.9pp
52% conf
2026-09-18
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
42%
Agent
40%
-2.4pp
45% conf
2026-09-18
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
polymarket
Companies
Market
33%
Agent
29%
-4.2pp
51% conf
2026-09-18
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Oct 16, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
48%
Agent
43%
-5.4pp
54% conf
2026-09-18
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
14%
+1.6pp
57% conf
2026-09-18
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
40%
Agent
36%
-3.9pp
60% conf
2026-09-18
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
57%
Agent
56%
-1.1pp
54% conf
2026-09-18
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
80%
Agent
78%
-1.8pp
59% conf
2026-09-18
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
78%
Agent
68%
-10.0pp
51% conf
2026-09-18
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
37%
Agent
40%
+2.1pp
46% conf
2026-09-17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.7pp
62% conf
2026-09-17
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Maintains rate
kalshi
World
Market
64%
Agent
65%
+1.2pp
55% conf
2026-09-17
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
polymarket
World
Market
30%
Agent
31%
+1.3pp
63% conf
2026-09-17
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
polymarket
Companies
Market
68%
Agent
64%
-3.1pp
51% conf
2026-09-17
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026? — Before 2027
kalshi
World
Market
12%
Agent
16%
+4.0pp
59% conf
2026-09-17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
72%
Agent
68%
-3.7pp
58% conf
2026-09-17
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
32%
Agent
31%
-1.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-17
Will Starbucks Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 102 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
51%
Agent
54%
+3.4pp
33% conf
2026-09-17
Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
18%
Agent
18%
+0.3pp
56% conf
2026-09-17
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
16%
+0.2pp
61% conf
2026-09-17
Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
12%
Agent
9%
-2.6pp
69% conf
2026-09-17
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.5pp
68% conf
2026-09-17
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
15%
-2.6pp
58% conf
2026-09-17
Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 116 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-17
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
84%
Agent
82%
-2.0pp
63% conf
2026-09-17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
15%
-1.3pp
56% conf
2026-09-17
Will Starbucks Credit Card Spend for September 2026 be above 101 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
53%
Agent
60%
+6.8pp
37% conf
2026-09-17
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
47%
Agent
60%
+13.2pp
50% conf
2026-09-17
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
32%
Agent
36%
+3.7pp
51% conf
2026-09-17
Will Gemini App Downloads for September 2026 be above 250 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
9%
Agent
9%
-0.4pp
47% conf
2026-09-17
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
polymarket
World
Market
33%
Agent
37%
+3.8pp
54% conf
2026-09-17
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
15%
Agent
14%
-0.6pp
52% conf
2026-09-17
Will Pepsi Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 94 ?
kalshi
Financials
Market
87%
Agent
84%
-2.8pp
43% conf
2026-09-17
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-2.2pp
65% conf
2026-09-17
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
88%
-0.4pp
69% conf
2026-09-17
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-1.3pp
66% conf
2026-09-17
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
86%
Agent
85%
-0.7pp
67% conf
2026-09-17
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
7%
-3.0pp
72% conf
2026-09-17
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
44%
Agent
47%
+3.1pp
56% conf
2026-09-17
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.6 billion items sold in 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
23%
+12.8pp
51% conf
2026-09-17
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
27%
-0.5pp
53% conf
2026-09-17
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-2.9pp
83% conf
2026-09-17
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.5pp
75% conf
2026-09-17
Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-07-01T14:00:00.000Z? — Before July 1, 2027
kalshi
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
6%
-5.8pp
73% conf
2026-09-17
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
47%
Agent
47%
-0.4pp
48% conf
2026-09-17
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
60%
Agent
53%
-6.3pp
49% conf
2026-09-17
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
polymarket
Politics
Market
17%
Agent
13%
-4.0pp
61% conf
2026-09-17
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
72%
Agent
73%
+0.8pp
62% conf
2026-09-17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
76%
Agent
69%
-6.4pp
46% conf
2026-09-17
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
66%
Agent
56%
-10.4pp
52% conf
2026-09-16
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
89%
-2.0pp
69% conf
2026-09-16
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?
polymarket
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
14%
-5.6pp
70% conf
2026-09-16
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
18%
Agent
18%
+0.3pp
59% conf
2026-09-16
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
polymarket
Elections
Market
58%
Agent
56%
-2.1pp
58% conf
2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
50%
Agent
48%
-2.9pp
52% conf
2026-09-16
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
55%
Agent
55%
+0.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-16
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
20%
Agent
23%
+3.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-16
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
33%
+4.9pp
60% conf
2026-09-16
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-16
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?
polymarket
Companies
Market
24%
Agent
27%
+3.3pp
50% conf
2026-09-16
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
67%
Agent
55%
-12.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-16
Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?
kalshi
Elections
Market
82%
Agent
83%
+1.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-16
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-3.5pp
70% conf
2026-09-16
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
22%
Agent
21%
-0.5pp
53% conf
2026-09-16
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
16%
Agent
14%
-2.5pp
64% conf
2026-09-16
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
18%
Agent
14%
-3.5pp
65% conf
2026-09-16
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
93%
Agent
94%
+1.5pp
76% conf
2026-09-16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
83%
-5.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-16
Will Vitality Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
38%
Agent
34%
-4.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-16
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
polymarket
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
19%
+6.5pp
52% conf
2026-09-16
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
64%
Agent
54%
-9.5pp
47% conf
2026-09-16
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
14%
+2.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-16
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
39%
Agent
42%
+3.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-16
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
57%
Agent
60%
+2.5pp
58% conf
2026-09-16
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.1pp
71% conf
2026-09-16
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
56%
Agent
54%
-2.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-16
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
38%
Agent
36%
-1.5pp
52% conf
2026-09-16
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
92%
Agent
80%
-11.5pp
58% conf
2026-09-16
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
62%
Agent
63%
+1.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-16
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
70%
Agent
58%
-12.5pp
61% conf
2026-09-16
Will Kamala Harris announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
14%
+4.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-15
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.0pp
72% conf
2026-09-15
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
88%
Agent
87%
-0.5pp
72% conf
2026-09-15
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
26%
Agent
31%
+4.5pp
59% conf
2026-09-15
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
44%
Agent
43%
-1.5pp
48% conf
2026-09-15
US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
7%
-4.5pp
74% conf
2026-09-15
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?
kalshi
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-4.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-15
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-2.0pp
73% conf
2026-09-15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
60%
Agent
58%
-2.5pp
56% conf
2026-09-15
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
68%
Agent
68%
-0.5pp
60% conf
2026-09-15
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
polymarket
Elections
Market
51%
Agent
65%
+14.1pp
56% conf
2026-09-15
Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor? — Before 2027
kalshi
Elections
Market
9%
Agent
2%
-6.5pp
90% conf
2026-09-15
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
76%
Agent
86%
+10.5pp
72% conf
2026-09-15
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
70%
Agent
45%
-25.0pp
48% conf
2026-09-15
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? — Kamala Harris
kalshi
Elections
Market
45%
Agent
74%
+29.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-15
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
18%
-6.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-15
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.25%?
kalshi
Economics
Market
80%
Agent
79%
-1.0pp
64% conf
2026-09-15
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
15%
Agent
14%
-1.0pp
64% conf
2026-09-15
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
90%
Agent
76%
-13.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-15
When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema? — Before July 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
85%
Agent
83%
-2.0pp
68% conf
2026-09-15
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
84%
Agent
80%
-4.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-15
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
24%
Agent
27%
+3.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-15
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
79%
-9.5pp
42% conf
2026-09-15
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
16%
Agent
20%
+3.9pp
57% conf
2026-09-15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
18%
Agent
14%
-3.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-15
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
84%
Agent
80%
-3.5pp
64% conf
2026-09-15
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
polymarket
Health
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
76% conf
2026-09-15
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
65%
Agent
17%
-48.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-15
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
polymarket
Politics
Market
23%
Agent
24%
+1.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-15
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
68%
Agent
70%
+2.5pp
60% conf
2026-09-15
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
66%
Agent
60%
-6.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-15
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
78%
Agent
75%
-2.7pp
62% conf
2026-09-15
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi
Economics
Market
57%
Agent
75%
+18.0pp
69% conf
2026-09-15
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
42%
Agent
36%
-5.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-15
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?
polymarket
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
13%
+0.5pp
63% conf
2026-09-15
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
84%
Agent
74%
-9.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-15
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
78%
Agent
74%
-4.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-15
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
11%
-5.0pp
66% conf
2026-09-15
Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day?
polymarket
Companies
Market
30%
Agent
21%
-8.5pp
52% conf
2026-09-14
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
66%
Agent
60%
-6.5pp
44% conf
2026-09-14
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
19%
Agent
17%
-2.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-14
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
66%
Agent
63%
-2.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-14
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
9%
Agent
8%
-0.5pp
75% conf
2026-09-14
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
polymarket
Economics
Market
90%
Agent
89%
-0.5pp
70% conf
2026-09-14
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
17%
Agent
15%
-2.0pp
68% conf
2026-09-14
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
10%
Agent
14%
+3.5pp
47% conf
2026-09-14
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
86%
Agent
73%
-13.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-14
Will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
5%
-5.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-14
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
70%
Agent
57%
-12.5pp
48% conf
2026-09-14
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
47%
Agent
43%
-4.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-14
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
34%
Agent
30%
-4.5pp
56% conf
2026-09-14
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
polymarket
Economics
Market
83%
Agent
83%
+0.1pp
60% conf
2026-09-14
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
polymarket
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-1.6pp
65% conf
2026-09-14
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
28%
Agent
26%
-1.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-14
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
24%
Agent
26%
+1.5pp
42% conf
2026-09-14
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
16%
Agent
17%
+0.5pp
52% conf
2026-09-14
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
36%
Agent
38%
+2.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?
polymarket
Financials
Market
91%
Agent
87%
-3.6pp
68% conf
2026-09-14
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
14%
Agent
17%
+3.0pp
63% conf
2026-09-14
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
46%
Agent
47%
+0.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-14
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
35%
Agent
19%
-16.0pp
58% conf
2026-09-14
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
polymarket
Financials
Market
25%
Agent
22%
-2.6pp
49% conf
2026-09-14
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
19%
+0.5pp
53% conf
2026-09-14
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.6pp
72% conf
2026-09-14
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
42%
Agent
34%
-7.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-14
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
10%
+2.5pp
58% conf
2026-09-14
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1575000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
60%
Agent
50%
-10.0pp
51% conf
2026-09-14
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
25%
Agent
22%
-3.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-14
Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Republican party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party? — Republican Governor, Democratic Senator
kalshi
Elections
Market
75%
Agent
69%
-6.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-14
OKX IPO in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
78% conf
2026-09-14
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.5pp
76% conf
2026-09-14
Will Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket?
kalshi
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
2%
-9.5pp
67% conf
2026-09-14
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
24%
Agent
25%
+1.5pp
60% conf
2026-09-14
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
polymarket
World
Market
19%
Agent
18%
-1.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-13
When will Virgin Galactic launch next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip ? — Before 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
39%
Agent
10%
-29.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-13
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
34%
Agent
20%
-13.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-13
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
16%
Agent
10%
-6.5pp
77% conf
2026-09-13
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
78%
Agent
76%
-1.5pp
64% conf
2026-09-13
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-0.5pp
64% conf
2026-09-13
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
polymarket
Politics
Market
18%
Agent
17%
-0.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-13
When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? — Before July 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
86%
Agent
77%
-9.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-13
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
14%
+4.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-13
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?
polymarket
Financials
Market
60%
Agent
53%
-6.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-13
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
20%
Agent
22%
+1.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-13
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
17%
Agent
14%
-3.0pp
68% conf
2026-09-13
Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
38%
Agent
4%
-33.5pp
78% conf
2026-09-12
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
13%
Agent
8%
-5.3pp
71% conf
2026-09-12
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
22%
Agent
27%
+4.6pp
55% conf
2026-09-12
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
91%
Agent
87%
-3.8pp
50% conf
2026-09-12
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
75%
Agent
67%
-8.0pp
48% conf
2026-09-12
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
26%
Agent
31%
+5.5pp
52% conf
2026-09-12
Will Legacy Win the FISSURE Playground 3?
polymarket
World
Market
35%
Agent
38%
+3.0pp
67% conf
2026-09-12
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
86%
Agent
83%
-3.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-12
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
42%
Agent
32%
-9.5pp
43% conf
2026-09-12
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
19%
Agent
19%
+0.0pp
49% conf
2026-09-12
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
40%
-4.5pp
40% conf
2026-09-12
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Elections
Market
9%
Agent
5%
-4.0pp
80% conf
2026-09-11
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
15%
Agent
17%
+2.2pp
60% conf
2026-09-11
Will Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 be above 1,100,000 bales?
kalshi
Economics
Market
19%
Agent
32%
+13.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-11
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
78%
Agent
60%
-17.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
9%
+0.5pp
69% conf
2026-09-11
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
10%
Agent
14%
+3.5pp
58% conf
2026-09-11
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
14%
Agent
5%
-8.5pp
76% conf
2026-09-11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
13%
Agent
11%
-1.7pp
26% conf
2026-09-11
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?
polymarket
Financials
Market
14%
Agent
10%
-4.0pp
66% conf
2026-09-11
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.5pp
73% conf
2026-09-11
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
18%
+0.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-11
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
polymarket
World
Market
19%
Agent
15%
-4.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-11
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.0pp
72% conf
2026-09-11
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
62%
Agent
66%
+4.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-10
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
polymarket
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
9%
-2.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-10
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-10
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
20%
Agent
20%
+0.0pp
59% conf
2026-09-10
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
14%
Agent
7%
-7.5pp
60% conf
2026-09-10
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
polymarket
Elections
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-0.5pp
69% conf
2026-09-10
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?
polymarket
World
Market
28%
Agent
19%
-9.5pp
60% conf
2026-09-10
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
28%
Agent
21%
-6.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-10
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
56%
Agent
53%
-3.0pp
34% conf
2026-09-10
Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-07-01T14:00:00.000Z? — Before July 1, 2027
kalshi
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
8%
-4.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-10
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in September 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
32%
+6.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-10
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
polymarket
Politics
Market
27%
Agent
17%
-10.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-10
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York?
kalshi
Elections
Market
44%
Agent
37%
-7.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-10
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
66%
Agent
62%
-3.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
polymarket
Financials
Market
57%
Agent
56%
-1.5pp
59% conf
2026-09-09
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
22%
Agent
23%
+1.0pp
49% conf
2026-09-09
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?
polymarket
Companies
Market
18%
Agent
15%
-2.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-09
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
34%
Agent
37%
+2.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-09
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
92%
Agent
92%
+0.8pp
71% conf
2026-09-09
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
17%
-1.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-09
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
20%
Agent
18%
-2.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-09
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.0pp
66% conf
2026-09-09
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-09
Will Kamala Harris announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-08
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-2.0pp
73% conf
2026-09-08
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September?
polymarket
World
Market
59%
Agent
58%
-1.0pp
51% conf
2026-09-08
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
68%
Agent
70%
+2.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-08
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
26%
Agent
26%
+0.5pp
60% conf
2026-09-08
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
32%
Agent
20%
-11.5pp
65% conf
2026-09-08
Will Seoul have less than 75mm of precipitation in September?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
62%
Agent
58%
-4.0pp
47% conf
2026-09-08
When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema? — Before July 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
37%
Agent
57%
+20.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-08
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
74%
Agent
32%
-42.1pp
44% conf
2026-09-08
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-08
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
26%
Agent
12%
-14.5pp
52% conf
2026-09-08
Will Ford Motor Company report Above 2 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
72%
Agent
72%
+0.0pp
58% conf
2026-09-08
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?
polymarket
Companies
Market
88%
Agent
79%
-9.5pp
60% conf
2026-09-08
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi
Economics
Market
70%
Agent
76%
+6.0pp
58% conf
2026-09-08
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
77%
+4.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-08
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
6%
-9.5pp
69% conf
2026-09-08
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-4.5pp
68% conf
2026-09-07
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 640 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
64%
Agent
63%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-07
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
26%
Agent
32%
+6.5pp
46% conf
2026-09-07
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
18%
Agent
16%
-2.0pp
63% conf
2026-09-07
Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
11%
Agent
7%
-4.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-07
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 620 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
77%
Agent
78%
+1.0pp
64% conf
2026-09-07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
24%
Agent
19%
-5.5pp
68% conf
2026-09-07
GDP growth in 2031? — 2.1% to 2.5%
kalshi
Economics
Market
15%
Agent
20%
+5.0pp
46% conf
2026-09-07
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
17%
Agent
17%
+0.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-07
Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship? — Before 2030
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
57%
Agent
58%
+1.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-07
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
90%
Agent
68%
-22.5pp
38% conf
2026-09-07
GDP growth in 2028? — 1.6% to 2.0%
kalshi
Economics
Market
11%
Agent
12%
+1.0pp
63% conf
2026-09-07
Spain snap election called in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
24%
Agent
24%
+0.5pp
59% conf
2026-09-07
GDP growth in 2032? — 2.1% to 2.5%
kalshi
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
19%
-1.0pp
48% conf
2026-09-07
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
polymarket
Health
Market
12%
Agent
3%
-8.7pp
88% conf
2026-09-07
Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 22 million short tons?
kalshi
Economics
Market
71%
Agent
65%
-6.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-07
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
16%
-0.5pp
64% conf
2026-09-07
Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028?
kalshi
Economics
Market
22%
Agent
33%
+10.9pp
55% conf
2026-09-07
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
57%
Agent
46%
-11.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-07
Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? — For tax year 2026
kalshi
Economics
Market
90%
Agent
79%
-11.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-07
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
60%
Agent
57%
-3.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-06
GDP growth in 2035? — 1.6% to 2.0%
kalshi
Economics
Market
13%
Agent
13%
+0.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-06
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.0pp
82% conf
2026-09-06
When will Virgin Galactic launch next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip ? — Before 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
39%
Agent
10%
-29.0pp
76% conf
2026-09-06
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
30%
Agent
34%
+3.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-06
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
33%
Agent
11%
-22.0pp
68% conf
2026-09-06
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
22%
Agent
28%
+6.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-06
Will Emory be top 20 on U.S. News & World Report's Best National Universities Rankings in 2027?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-1.0pp
63% conf
2026-09-06
US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.0pp
73% conf
2026-09-06
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3 billion items sold in 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
88%
Agent
92%
+4.0pp
73% conf
2026-09-06
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
16%
Agent
15%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-06
When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? — Before July 2027
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
79%
Agent
76%
-3.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-06
Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
34%
Agent
36%
+1.5pp
64% conf
2026-09-06
Will SpaceX announce acquisition of any major U.S. telecom business before Jan 1, 2028? — Yes
kalshi
Financials
Market
46%
Agent
42%
-4.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-06
Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
27%
Agent
26%
-0.7pp
56% conf
2026-09-06
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
20%
Agent
30%
+10.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-06
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
11%
Agent
20%
+9.0pp
49% conf
2026-09-06
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
54%
Agent
68%
+14.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-06
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
78%
Agent
72%
-6.5pp
51% conf
2026-09-06
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? — Before 2050
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
33%
Agent
25%
-8.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-06
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
82%
Agent
78%
-4.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-05
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
18%
Agent
14%
-4.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-05
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
55%
Agent
34%
-20.5pp
56% conf
2026-09-05
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 Diabetes before 2033?
kalshi
Health
Market
36%
Agent
41%
+5.0pp
48% conf
2026-09-05
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
51%
Agent
60%
+9.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-05
Will the EU meet its climate goals? — By 2030
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
38%
Agent
28%
-10.1pp
62% conf
2026-09-05
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
26%
Agent
21%
-5.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-05
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
10%
Agent
4%
-6.0pp
71% conf
2026-09-05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
44%
Agent
40%
-4.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-05
Will Trump make IVF free? — Before 2029
kalshi
Health
Market
13%
Agent
13%
+0.0pp
67% conf
2026-09-05
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
20%
Agent
4%
-16.5pp
83% conf
2026-09-05
Will Félix Tshisekedi leave office next in this set?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-0.9pp
63% conf
2026-09-05
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
polymarket
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
9%
-2.8pp
73% conf
2026-09-05
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? — At least 450
kalshi
World
Market
13%
Agent
5%
-8.0pp
73% conf
2026-09-05
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
7%
Agent
2%
-4.7pp
77% conf
2026-09-05
Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?
kalshi
Financials
Market
74%
Agent
65%
-9.0pp
64% conf
2026-09-05
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
16%
Agent
16%
+0.5pp
65% conf
2026-09-05
Will Carvana Co. report Above 900 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
13%
Agent
9%
-4.0pp
73% conf
2026-09-05
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
30%
Agent
42%
+12.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-05
Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029
kalshi
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
3%
-4.9pp
82% conf
2026-09-05
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
73%
Agent
80%
+7.0pp
49% conf
2026-09-04
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41800 total global stores in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
11%
Agent
14%
+3.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-04
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26?
polymarket
World
Market
37%
Agent
50%
+13.0pp
48% conf
2026-09-04
Will India meet its climate goals? — By 2030
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
63%
Agent
70%
+7.0pp
59% conf
2026-09-04
Will Vitality Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
22%
Agent
20%
-2.5pp
56% conf
2026-09-04
Will Trump reduce inequality in the US? — During his presidential term
kalshi
Economics
Market
23%
Agent
22%
-1.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-04
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
62%
+44.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-04
GDP growth in 2036? — 2.6% to 3.0%
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
12%
+3.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-04
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
17%
-0.8pp
70% conf
2026-09-04
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? — Before 2030
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
33%
Agent
27%
-6.2pp
47% conf
2026-09-04
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?
polymarket
Financials
Market
84%
Agent
85%
+0.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-04
GDP growth in 2033? — 0.1% to 0.5%
kalshi
Economics
Market
9%
Agent
7%
-2.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-04
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
32%
Agent
25%
-6.7pp
62% conf
2026-09-04
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? — Before 2035
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
50%
Agent
45%
-5.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-04
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+0.9pp
69% conf
2026-09-04
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 46000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
83%
Agent
88%
+5.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-04
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
44%
Agent
40%
-4.0pp
40% conf
2026-09-04
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — United States
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
52%
Agent
58%
+6.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-04
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
57%
Agent
58%
+0.8pp
56% conf
2026-09-04
EV market share in 2030? — Above 30%
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
42%
Agent
11%
-31.0pp
66% conf
2026-09-04
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
21%
Agent
5%
-16.0pp
76% conf
2026-09-03
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
9%
Agent
11%
+2.1pp
64% conf
2026-09-03
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
12%
Agent
16%
+4.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-03
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
20%
Agent
7%
-13.5pp
70% conf
2026-09-03
Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
50%
Agent
96%
+46.0pp
82% conf
2026-09-03
GDP growth in 2030? — 2.6% to 3.0%
kalshi
Economics
Market
20%
Agent
19%
-1.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-03
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
polymarket
Financials
Market
8%
Agent
5%
-2.5pp
71% conf
2026-09-03
Will Ramp or Brex IPO first?
kalshi
Financials
Market
9%
Agent
3%
-6.0pp
87% conf
2026-09-03
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31?
polymarket
World
Market
50%
Agent
4%
-45.5pp
80% conf
2026-09-03
Will eBay Inc. report Above $92 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-03
Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?
kalshi
Economics
Market
19%
Agent
6%
-13.0pp
80% conf
2026-09-03
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
47%
Agent
27%
-20.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-03
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
72%
Agent
65%
-7.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-03
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
83%
-6.5pp
60% conf
2026-09-03
When will a supervolcano next erupt? — Before Jan 1, 2050
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
23%
Agent
2%
-20.8pp
80% conf
2026-09-03
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
14%
Agent
14%
-0.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-03
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
88%
Agent
79%
-9.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-03
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?
kalshi
Health
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.6pp
73% conf
2026-09-03
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
93%
Agent
93%
+0.3pp
76% conf
2026-09-03
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
28%
Agent
26%
-2.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-03
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 30.2 million funded customers in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
27%
Agent
28%
+1.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-03
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
87%
-1.5pp
71% conf
2026-09-03
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
56%
Agent
53%
-2.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-03
Who will win the next Ghanian parliamentary election? — NDC
kalshi
Elections
Market
61%
Agent
66%
+5.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-03
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
44%
Agent
50%
+6.5pp
51% conf
2026-09-03
Will the US meet its climate goals? — By 2025
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
13%
Agent
20%
+7.0pp
38% conf
2026-09-03
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
70%
Agent
71%
+1.0pp
61% conf
2026-09-03
Who will win the next Australian House election? — Australian Labor Party
kalshi
Elections
Market
53%
Agent
64%
+11.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-03
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
polymarket
Economics
Market
54%
Agent
62%
+8.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-03
Who will win the next Philippine presidential election? — Leni Robredo
kalshi
Elections
Market
15%
Agent
2%
-12.5pp
74% conf
2026-09-03
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?
polymarket
Companies
Market
60%
Agent
48%
-11.6pp
52% conf
2026-09-03
Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-07-01T14:00:00.000Z? — Before July 1, 2027
kalshi
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
6%
-6.0pp
78% conf
2026-09-03
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
46%
Agent
53%
+7.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-03
Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?
kalshi
Financials
Market
52%
Agent
50%
-2.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-03
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Health
Market
66%
Agent
58%
-8.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-03
Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? — Below 300
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.4pp
82% conf
2026-09-03
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
84%
Agent
79%
-5.2pp
62% conf
2026-09-03
Will Kim Jong-Un visit the United States during Trump's term?
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
11%
-4.0pp
66% conf
2026-09-03
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
polymarket
Economics
Market
68%
Agent
69%
+1.5pp
65% conf
2026-09-03
Will there be a recession in 2027? — Yes
kalshi
Economics
Market
30%
Agent
27%
-3.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-03
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
polymarket
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
14%
+2.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-03
Will YES win the 2026 Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero?
kalshi
Elections
Market
9%
Agent
6%
-3.0pp
88% conf
2026-09-03
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
10%
-2.5pp
71% conf
2026-09-02
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
54%
Agent
38%
-16.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-02
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
26%
Agent
26%
+0.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-02
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election? — Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
kalshi
Elections
Market
58%
Agent
47%
-11.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-02
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
68%
Agent
63%
-5.5pp
50% conf
2026-09-02
Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? — Ekrem İmamoğlu
kalshi
Elections
Market
16%
Agent
12%
-4.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-02
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
16%
Agent
19%
+3.5pp
65% conf
2026-09-02
Will Brigitte Macron win Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS)? — Before 2028
kalshi
Politics
Market
52%
Agent
17%
-35.0pp
48% conf
2026-09-02
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
17%
+8.5pp
67% conf
2026-09-02
Will a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times? — New York Times wins
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
42%
Agent
30%
-12.4pp
58% conf
2026-09-02
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
polymarket
Companies
Market
44%
Agent
20%
-24.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-02
Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?
kalshi
Politics
Market
17%
Agent
12%
-5.0pp
64% conf
2026-09-02
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
17%
Agent
19%
+2.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-02
Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
kalshi
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
8%
-1.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-02
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
68%
Agent
68%
-0.5pp
64% conf
2026-09-02
Manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030?
kalshi
Companies
Market
14%
Agent
5%
-9.0pp
82% conf
2026-09-02
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
9%
Agent
6%
-3.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-02
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? — No other person
kalshi
Politics
Market
50%
Agent
55%
+5.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-02
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
10%
Agent
10%
+0.0pp
45% conf
2026-09-02
Will Minnesota Governor winner be Democratic party and Minnesota Senate winner be Democratic party? — Democrats sweep
kalshi
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
88%
-4.0pp
58% conf
2026-09-02
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
82%
Agent
75%
-7.5pp
54% conf
2026-09-02
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?
kalshi
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
17%
-3.0pp
61% conf
2026-09-02
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
11%
+0.9pp
55% conf
2026-09-02
Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
kalshi
Elections
Market
35%
Agent
30%
-5.0pp
51% conf
2026-09-02
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-0.5pp
67% conf
2026-09-02
Will Trump recognize Somaliland? — Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
45%
Agent
40%
-5.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-02
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
91%
Agent
93%
+2.0pp
77% conf
2026-09-02
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
38%
Agent
36%
-2.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
5%
-4.5pp
72% conf
2026-09-02
Will Congress ever override Trump's veto? — Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
42%
Agent
32%
-10.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-02
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
44%
Agent
42%
-2.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-02
Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Hampshire
kalshi
Elections
Market
88%
Agent
89%
+1.0pp
76% conf
2026-09-02
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
19%
+1.1pp
55% conf
2026-09-02
Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee? — JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
kalshi
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
5%
-5.0pp
56% conf
2026-09-02
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
10%
-0.2pp
73% conf
2026-09-02
Will Ulf Kristersson become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
18%
Agent
14%
-4.0pp
64% conf
2026-09-02
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
87%
-2.5pp
70% conf
2026-09-02
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
23%
Agent
20%
-3.0pp
67% conf
2026-09-02
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
polymarket
Politics
Market
11%
Agent
8%
-2.6pp
70% conf
2026-09-02
Who will win the next Georgian parliamentary election? — Unity – National Movement
kalshi
Elections
Market
9%
Agent
3%
-6.0pp
68% conf
2026-09-02
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
16%
Agent
16%
-0.5pp
66% conf
2026-09-02
Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
kalshi
Politics
Market
81%
Agent
84%
+3.0pp
66% conf
2026-09-02
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
8%
+0.5pp
72% conf
2026-09-02
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio? — Democratic party
kalshi
Elections
Market
45%
Agent
44%
-1.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-02
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026
polymarket
Financials
Market
31%
Agent
30%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-02
Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?
kalshi
Politics
Market
60%
Agent
58%
-2.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-02
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
80%
Agent
80%
-0.5pp
68% conf
2026-09-02
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
kalshi
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
11%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-02
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
33%
Agent
34%
+1.0pp
58% conf
2026-09-02
Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
70%
Agent
65%
-5.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-02
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
90%
-2.5pp
64% conf
2026-09-02
Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
58%
Agent
67%
+9.0pp
58% conf
2026-09-02
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
polymarket
Elections
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-1.1pp
66% conf
2026-09-02
Will Trump go on SNL during his second term? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
9%
-6.0pp
67% conf
2026-09-02
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
92%
Agent
90%
-1.5pp
73% conf
2026-09-02
Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? — Amul Thapar
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.1pp
66% conf
2026-09-02
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
polymarket
Politics
Market
42%
Agent
44%
+2.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-02
Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.7 million active clear+ members in 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
50%
Agent
43%
-7.0pp
54% conf
2026-09-02
Blue wave in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
74%
Agent
46%
-27.5pp
55% conf
2026-09-02
Will the Democratic party win the House in 2028?
kalshi
Elections
Market
77%
Agent
72%
-5.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-02
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket
Elections
Market
50%
Agent
35%
-15.5pp
56% conf
2026-09-01
Will Kamala Harris announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
14%
+4.0pp
66% conf
2026-09-01
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
44%
Agent
49%
+4.5pp
57% conf
2026-09-01
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4320 total restaurant count in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
87%
Agent
92%
+5.0pp
74% conf
2026-09-01
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
53%
Agent
42%
-11.0pp
40% conf
2026-09-01
Will Michigan Governor winner be Republican party and Michigan Senate winner be Democratic party? — Republican Governor, Democratic Senator
kalshi
Elections
Market
26%
Agent
14%
-12.0pp
40% conf
2026-09-01
Will Iran target Syria by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
16%
+4.5pp
48% conf
2026-09-01
Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.25 million passengers carried in 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
83%
Agent
73%
-10.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-01
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
12%
Agent
16%
+3.5pp
52% conf
2026-09-01
Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
11%
-1.0pp
68% conf
2026-09-01
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
38%
Agent
43%
+5.5pp
47% conf
2026-09-01
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?
kalshi
Politics
Market
79%
Agent
86%
+7.0pp
73% conf
2026-09-01
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
45%
Agent
37%
-8.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-01
Will Bernie Sanders run for President of The United States? — Before November 4, 2028
kalshi
Elections
Market
15%
Agent
8%
-7.0pp
73% conf
2026-09-01
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
polymarket
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
5%
-5.3pp
82% conf
2026-09-01
Will New York City experience population increase between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027? — Decrease 0-0.99%
kalshi
Politics
Market
28%
Agent
28%
+0.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-01
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
polymarket
Companies
Market
9%
Agent
9%
+0.0pp
67% conf
2026-09-01
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?
kalshi
Elections
Market
87%
Agent
80%
-7.0pp
63% conf
2026-09-01
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in September 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
20%
Agent
16%
-4.0pp
70% conf
2026-09-01
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 20, 2029? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
39%
Agent
25%
-14.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-01
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
polymarket
Elections
Market
66%
Agent
57%
-9.5pp
52% conf
2026-09-01
Will Trump bring back manufacturing? — Before 2029
kalshi
Economics
Market
24%
Agent
5%
-19.0pp
86% conf
2026-09-01
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
92%
Agent
87%
-4.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? — Before 2028
kalshi
Elections
Market
41%
Agent
41%
+0.0pp
52% conf
2026-09-01
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
45%
+16.8pp
52% conf
2026-09-01
Will a country leave the EU by 2030?
kalshi
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-4.0pp
77% conf
2026-09-01
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.1pp
73% conf
2026-09-01
DOJ wins their anti-trust case against Apple? — Before 2030
kalshi
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
34%
+6.0pp
55% conf
2026-09-01
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
6%
-3.0pp
68% conf
2026-09-01
Will US test scores in Reading decline? — Significant decrease
kalshi
Politics
Market
49%
Agent
45%
-4.0pp
45% conf
2026-09-01
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
11%
Agent
11%
+0.0pp
64% conf
2026-09-01
Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
22%
Agent
17%
-5.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-01
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
41%
Agent
40%
-1.0pp
45% conf
2026-09-01
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
78%
Agent
75%
-3.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
polymarket
Financials
Market
21%
Agent
27%
+6.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-01
Will US test scores in Math decline? — Significant decrease
kalshi
Politics
Market
44%
Agent
34%
-10.0pp
50% conf
2026-09-01
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
92%
Agent
85%
-7.5pp
46% conf
2026-09-01
Will Trump recognize Somaliland? — Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
12%
Agent
12%
+0.0pp
58% conf
2026-09-01
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?
polymarket
Elections
Market
72%
Agent
62%
-10.5pp
53% conf
2026-09-01
Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?
kalshi
World
Market
11%
Agent
9%
-2.0pp
51% conf
2026-09-01
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.5pp
71% conf
2026-09-01
Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee? — Before 2028
kalshi
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
8%
-0.1pp
70% conf
2026-09-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in September?
polymarket
Financials
Market
72%
Agent
74%
+1.5pp
65% conf
2026-09-01
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
kalshi
Elections
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-1.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-01
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
82%
Agent
80%
-2.2pp
68% conf
2026-09-01
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? — At least 5000
kalshi
Health
Market
37%
Agent
34%
-3.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-01
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
68%
Agent
62%
-5.5pp
40% conf
2026-09-01
Will a court find that Amazon has illegally maintained a monopoly? — Government wins
kalshi
Politics
Market
42%
Agent
41%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-09-01
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
82%
Agent
83%
+1.5pp
71% conf
2026-09-01
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi
Politics
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-3.9pp
66% conf
2026-09-01
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
70%
Agent
64%
-6.2pp
43% conf
2026-09-01
Will government spending decrease by $250 billion before 2028? — At least 250 billion
kalshi
Economics
Market
12%
Agent
5%
-7.0pp
80% conf
2026-09-01
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
polymarket
Companies
Market
10%
Agent
13%
+3.5pp
56% conf
2026-09-01
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting? — Hike >25bps
kalshi
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-01
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.0pp
77% conf
2026-09-01
Will timber volume harvested from Board of Forestry Lands in 2027 be above 220 million board feet?
kalshi
Economics
Market
13%
Agent
7%
-6.0pp
65% conf
2026-09-01
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
polymarket
Economics
Market
56%
Agent
57%
+0.5pp
62% conf
2026-09-01
Will David Leslie qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
kalshi
Elections
Market
80%
Agent
84%
+4.0pp
59% conf
2026-09-01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30?
polymarket
World
Market
18%
Agent
19%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-09-01
Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?
kalshi
Politics
Market
15%
Agent
12%
-3.0pp
57% conf
2026-09-01
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
18%
Agent
12%
-5.5pp
63% conf
2026-08-31
Will become President of the United States before 2045?
kalshi
Elections
Market
10%
Agent
2%
-7.2pp
88% conf
2026-08-31
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Health
Market
88%
Agent
85%
-2.5pp
64% conf
2026-08-31
Will become President of the United States before 2045?
kalshi
Elections
Market
18%
Agent
2%
-15.5pp
72% conf
2026-08-31
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
14%
Agent
9%
-4.5pp
70% conf
2026-08-31
When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi
Economics
Market
41%
Agent
23%
-18.0pp
54% conf
2026-08-31
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-0.5pp
71% conf
2026-08-31
When will BMW release Fully Electric M3 to the public?
kalshi
Companies
Market
88%
Agent
85%
-3.0pp
66% conf
2026-08-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
92%
Agent
88%
-4.5pp
56% conf
2026-08-31
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? — Oil
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
61%
Agent
91%
+30.0pp
78% conf
2026-08-31
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?
polymarket
Financials
Market
74%
Agent
70%
-4.5pp
54% conf
2026-08-31
When will New York City owned and operated grocery store open to the public? — Before Jan 2028
kalshi
Politics
Market
81%
Agent
73%
-8.0pp
59% conf
2026-08-31
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
polymarket
Elections
Market
50%
Agent
38%
-12.5pp
57% conf
2026-08-31
Will Gavin Newsom and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? — Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
kalshi
Elections
Market
11%
Agent
11%
+0.0pp
55% conf
2026-08-31
Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
9%
Agent
11%
+2.0pp
56% conf
2026-08-31
Will Israel and Syria normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?
kalshi
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
16%
-4.0pp
62% conf
2026-08-31
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
28%
Agent
45%
+17.5pp
58% conf
2026-08-31
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? — Tucker Carlson
kalshi
Elections
Market
26%
Agent
19%
-7.0pp
60% conf
2026-08-31
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
68%
Agent
92%
+24.5pp
77% conf
2026-08-31
Will a new Constitutional Amendment be added before Jan 20, 2029? — During Trump's term
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
6%
-3.0pp
77% conf
2026-08-31
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
polymarket
Politics
Market
24%
Agent
22%
-2.0pp
62% conf
2026-08-31
Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
kalshi
Financials
Market
93%
Agent
90%
-3.0pp
71% conf
2026-08-31
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
62%
Agent
63%
+1.5pp
55% conf
2026-08-31
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028? — Before Election Day
kalshi
Elections
Market
27%
Agent
25%
-2.0pp
62% conf
2026-08-31
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
65%
Agent
56%
-9.0pp
54% conf
2026-08-31
Will US Supreme Court rule ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
88%
+68.0pp
80% conf
2026-08-31
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
76%
Agent
73%
-3.0pp
63% conf
2026-08-31
Will the 2028 presidential election occur? — In 2028
kalshi
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
96%
+5.9pp
80% conf
2026-08-31
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
88%
Agent
89%
+1.0pp
77% conf
2026-08-31
Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?
kalshi
Politics
Market
64%
Agent
45%
-19.0pp
59% conf
2026-08-31
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
polymarket
Financials
Market
76%
Agent
70%
-5.5pp
62% conf
2026-08-31
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor? — Keith Sonderling
kalshi
Politics
Market
92%
Agent
93%
+1.0pp
77% conf
2026-08-31
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
68%
Agent
68%
-0.5pp
51% conf
2026-08-31
Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship? — Before 2030
kalshi
Science and Technology
Market
63%
Agent
60%
-3.0pp
52% conf
2026-08-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
70%
Agent
63%
-6.5pp
51% conf
2026-08-31
Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada before the next general election?
kalshi
Elections
Market
17%
Agent
8%
-9.0pp
76% conf
2026-08-31
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
polymarket
Economics
Market
10%
Agent
4%
-6.0pp
78% conf
2026-08-31
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? — Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
32%
Agent
17%
-15.0pp
62% conf
2026-08-31
Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket
Economics
Market
68%
Agent
66%
-1.5pp
66% conf
2026-08-31
Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices?
kalshi
Politics
Market
30%
Agent
29%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-08-31
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
61%
Agent
60%
-1.0pp
64% conf
2026-08-31
Will the Democratic party win the House, the Democratic party win the Senate, and the Democratic party win the Presidency? — Democratic Sweep
kalshi
Elections
Market
53%
Agent
48%
-5.0pp
48% conf
2026-08-31
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
polymarket
Economics
Market
88%
Agent
87%
-1.5pp
72% conf
2026-08-31
Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
kalshi
Politics
Market
50%
Agent
44%
-6.0pp
50% conf
2026-08-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
28%
Agent
20%
-8.5pp
67% conf
2026-08-31
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 65000 Headcount in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
84%
Agent
87%
+3.0pp
65% conf
2026-08-31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
polymarket
Economics
Market
76%
Agent
74%
-2.0pp
64% conf
2026-08-31
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
kalshi
Elections
Market
62%
Agent
57%
-5.0pp
56% conf
2026-08-31
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
92%
Agent
91%
-0.5pp
75% conf
2026-08-31
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China before Jan 20, 2029? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
19%
Agent
5%
-14.0pp
70% conf
2026-08-31
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
34%
Agent
36%
+1.5pp
54% conf
2026-08-31
Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 22 million short tons?
kalshi
Economics
Market
70%
Agent
48%
-22.0pp
55% conf
2026-08-31
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
28%
Agent
30%
+2.0pp
60% conf
2026-08-31
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029? — During Trump's term
kalshi
Politics
Market
32%
Agent
26%
-6.0pp
61% conf
2026-08-31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
polymarket
Economics
Market
92%
Agent
90%
-1.5pp
72% conf
2026-08-31
Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?
kalshi
Elections
Market
86%
Agent
94%
+8.0pp
73% conf
2026-08-31
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
12%
Agent
7%
-4.5pp
68% conf
2026-08-31
Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028?
kalshi
Economics
Market
24%
Agent
29%
+4.9pp
54% conf
2026-08-31
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
24%
Agent
17%
-7.5pp
68% conf
2026-08-31
Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner be Republican for Jan 2027? — Paxton defeats Talarico
kalshi
Elections
Market
52%
Agent
50%
-2.0pp
62% conf
2026-08-31
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
polymarket
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
8%
-4.5pp
70% conf
2026-08-30
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
kalshi
Elections
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.1pp
56% conf
2026-08-30
Will the United States add another state before date? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
4%
-4.8pp
80% conf
2026-08-30
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
52%
Agent
47%
-5.5pp
50% conf
2026-08-30
Will the Supreme Court overturn marriage equality? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.1pp
78% conf
2026-08-30
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
15%
Agent
9%
-6.0pp
67% conf
2026-08-30
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
kalshi
Elections
Market
27%
Agent
24%
-3.0pp
51% conf
2026-08-30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
polymarket
Financials
Market
18%
Agent
9%
-8.5pp
72% conf
2026-08-30
Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028? — Republican party
kalshi
Elections
Market
41%
Agent
39%
-2.0pp
52% conf
2026-08-30
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
74%
Agent
60%
-13.5pp
56% conf
2026-08-30
Will Trump expand high-skill immigration? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
19%
Agent
13%
-6.0pp
67% conf
2026-08-30
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
polymarket
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
13%
-0.5pp
67% conf
2026-08-30
Who will win the next presidential election? — Marco Rubio
kalshi
Elections
Market
13%
Agent
12%
-1.0pp
60% conf
2026-08-30
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
polymarket
World
Market
85%
Agent
76%
-9.0pp
57% conf
2026-08-30
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
kalshi
Elections
Market
19%
Agent
15%
-4.0pp
56% conf
2026-08-30
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
polymarket
Climate and Weather
Market
60%
Agent
55%
-5.1pp
60% conf
2026-08-30
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-3.0pp
76% conf
2026-08-30
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
66%
Agent
73%
+6.5pp
66% conf
2026-08-30
Will the United States acquire any part of Canada before 2029?
kalshi
Politics
Market
7%
Agent
5%
-2.3pp
77% conf
2026-08-30
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
polymarket
Companies
Market
14%
Agent
12%
-2.0pp
64% conf
2026-08-30
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
kalshi
Climate and Weather
Market
27%
Agent
10%
-17.0pp
72% conf
2026-08-30
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
7%
Agent
8%
+1.0pp
69% conf
2026-08-30
Will USAID be eliminated?
kalshi
Politics
Market
23%
Agent
24%
+1.0pp
62% conf
2026-08-30
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
78% conf
2026-08-30
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
kalshi
Elections
Market
15%
Agent
16%
+1.0pp
70% conf
2026-08-30
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September?
polymarket
World
Market
70%
Agent
61%
-9.5pp
50% conf
2026-08-30
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2? — Yes
kalshi
Elections
Market
18%
Agent
11%
-7.0pp
70% conf
2026-08-30
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
7%
Agent
6%
-1.7pp
69% conf
2026-08-30
Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 20, 2029?
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
9%
-5.0pp
74% conf
2026-08-30
AI bubble burst in 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
10%
Agent
10%
+0.1pp
72% conf
2026-08-30
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? — Before 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
28%
Agent
12%
-16.0pp
57% conf
2026-08-30
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
polymarket
Elections
Market
40%
Agent
38%
-3.0pp
64% conf
2026-08-30
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3 billion items sold in 2026?
kalshi
Financials
Market
88%
Agent
95%
+7.0pp
78% conf
2026-08-30
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Companies
Market
28%
Agent
27%
-1.0pp
56% conf
2026-08-30
Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026? — Yes
kalshi
Politics
Market
9%
Agent
6%
-3.1pp
75% conf
2026-08-30
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
50%
Agent
47%
-3.5pp
50% conf
2026-08-30
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? — Before 2027
kalshi
Politics
Market
17%
Agent
16%
-1.0pp
65% conf
2026-08-30
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
58%
Agent
33%
-25.5pp
46% conf
2026-08-30
Will President Trump resign before his term is up? — Before his term ends
kalshi
Politics
Market
20%
Agent
14%
-6.0pp
64% conf
2026-08-30
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?
polymarket
World
Market
42%
Agent
62%
+20.5pp
53% conf
2026-08-30
Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?
kalshi
Politics
Market
65%
Agent
54%
-11.0pp
54% conf
2026-08-30
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
10%
Agent
6%
-4.0pp
72% conf
2026-08-30
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? — During Trump's term
kalshi
Politics
Market
22%
Agent
13%
-9.0pp
73% conf
2026-08-30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
86%
Agent
77%
-8.5pp
42% conf
2026-08-30
Will SpaceX announce acquisition of any major U.S. telecom business before Jan 1, 2028? — Yes
kalshi
Financials
Market
45%
Agent
30%
-15.0pp
58% conf
2026-08-30
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?
polymarket
Companies
Market
19%
Agent
13%
-6.0pp
61% conf
2026-08-30
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? — Before his term ends
kalshi
Politics
Market
14%
Agent
4%
-10.0pp
76% conf
2026-08-30
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
polymarket
Science and Technology
Market
35%
Agent
33%
-2.0pp
51% conf
2026-08-30
Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term? — $0 / No Acquisition
kalshi
Politics
Market
87%
Agent
88%
+1.5pp
72% conf
2026-08-30
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.0pp
74% conf
2026-08-30
Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029? — Before January 21, 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
23%
Agent
20%
-3.0pp
64% conf
2026-08-30
NATO article 5 before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
6%
-1.5pp
70% conf
2026-08-30
Will Trump buy Greenland? — Before January 20, 2029
kalshi
Politics
Market
19%
Agent
13%
-6.0pp
70% conf
2026-08-30
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?
polymarket
Financials
Market
7%
Agent
4%
-2.5pp
70% conf
2026-08-30
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? — At least $100
kalshi
Companies
Market
64%
Agent
63%
-1.0pp
52% conf
2026-08-30
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
86%
Agent
68%
-17.5pp
52% conf
2026-08-30
Will Blue and White be a part of the next government in Israel?
kalshi
Elections
Market
12%
Agent
12%
+0.0pp
49% conf
2026-08-30
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
86%
Agent
84%
-1.5pp
57% conf
2026-08-30
Will Rippling win its lawsuit against Deel? — Before 2028
kalshi
Companies
Market
66%
Agent
34%
-32.0pp
51% conf
2026-08-30
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
polymarket
World
Market
8%
Agent
7%
-1.0pp
74% conf
2026-08-30
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.9 million total production in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
10%
Agent
9%
-1.0pp
76% conf
2026-08-29
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
polymarket
Financials
Market
14%
Agent
7%
-6.5pp
75% conf
2026-08-29
Will Tesla, Inc. report above 130000 total employee headcount worldwide in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
84%
Agent
85%
+1.0pp
65% conf
2026-08-29
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
polymarket
Elections
Market
86%
Agent
85%
-0.5pp
67% conf
2026-08-29
Will Ford Motor Company report Above 2.15 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
31%
Agent
28%
-3.0pp
54% conf
2026-08-29
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 186 million passengers flown in 2026?
kalshi
Companies
Market
48%
Agent
44%
-4.0pp
57% conf
2026-08-29
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
polymarket
Elections
Market
90%
Agent
92%
+2.0pp
66% conf
2026-08-29