Reasoning traces from our Metaculus tournament bot. Click any row to see the full pipeline — plan, research, evidence, sub-question estimates, Fermi breakdown, and devil's-advocate critique.
| When | Question | Type | Tournament | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20T12:02 |
What will be the outcome of Duane "Keffe D" Davis's Tupac Shakur murder trial by September…
post 45183 · question 45376
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Mistrial, or no verdict yet reached 62% | View → |
| 2026-08-19T15:02 |
Will Israel have formally accepted the Board of Peace's 15-point second-phase Gaza plan as…
post 45182 · question 45375
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 34.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-19T09:02 |
Will the U.S. and Argentina have signed a new 123 civil nuclear cooperation agreement as o…
post 45181 · question 45374
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 16.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-18T15:03 |
Will Suge Knight testify in the Duane "Keffe D" Davis murder trial on or before September …
post 45180 · question 45373
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 48.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-18T09:02 |
Will Brazil's Chamber of Deputies have approved PL 3481/2026 in a plenary floor vote as of…
post 45179 · question 45372
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 38.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-17T15:05 |
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in August 2026?
post 45206 · question 45401
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 9500.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-17T15:02 |
Will Argentina's Senate pass the 'Super RIGI' bill on or before September 10, 2026?
post 45178 · question 45371
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 47.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-17T09:03 |
Will United Airlines operate a nonstop Newark-Tel Aviv flight on September 8 or 9, 2026?
post 45177 · question 45370
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 52.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-16T12:32 |
Will the WHO report that the 2026 Ebola outbreak has spread to a 7th Congo province before…
post 45175 · question 45365
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 69.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-15T20:02 |
Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both …
post 45203 · question 45395
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 8.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-15T09:04 |
Will the officially targeted launch month of the Nuri rocket be something other than Octob…
post 45099 · question 45245
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 32.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-15T09:02 |
Who will be the largest Democratic donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?
post 45039 · question 45188
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | George Soros 87% | View → |
| 2026-08-15T06:04 |
Will South Korea announce a specific date for the 5th Nuri rocket launch before September …
post 45098 · question 45244
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 57.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-15T06:02 |
Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?
post 45038 · question 45187
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Ben Horowitz & Marc Andreessen 37% | View → |
| 2026-08-14T14:02 |
What will be the Boliviano-USD exchange rate on August 31, 2026?
post 45174 · question 45363
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 11.65 | View → |
| 2026-08-14T09:02 |
Will the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 become law before September 10, …
post 45054 · question 45203
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 30.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-14T06:02 |
Will Grok 4.7 appear on SpaceXAI's release notes before September 5, 2026?
post 45053 · question 45202
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 42.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-14T03:03 |
Will 21 year-old Jackson Koivun be named to the United States team for the 2026 President…
post 45052 · question 45201
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 35.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-14T00:02 |
Will the Swiss Canton of Valais have a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2,…
post 45051 · question 45200
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 76.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-13T21:02 |
As of September 2, 2026, how many people will be impacted by tech layoffs according to Tru…
post 45050 · question 45199
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 186500.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-13T18:03 |
How many Swiss cantons will be classified as "Extremely Dry" according to the Swiss drough…
post 45049 · question 45198
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 6.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-13T15:02 |
What percentage of all startup or tech company job openings will be with Amazon on Septemb…
post 45048 · question 45197
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 7.65 | View → |
| 2026-08-13T14:02 |
What will be the percentage change in the S&P 500 from close of Aug 26, 2026 to open of Au…
post 45173 · question 45362
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 0.135 | View → |
| 2026-08-13T12:03 |
What percentage of the total requirements of the 2026 Escalation of Hostilities in the Occ…
post 45047 · question 45196
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 44.45 | View → |
| 2026-08-13T09:02 |
What percentage of the total requirements of the 2026 Lebanon Flash Appeal will be funded …
post 45046 · question 45195
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 51.849999999999994 | View → |
| 2026-08-13T06:02 |
How many active US drilling rigs will there be for the week ending August 28, 2026?
post 45069 · question 45218
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 589.5 | View → |
| 2026-08-12T19:02 |
Who will win the Republican primary for Wyoming's 2026 gubernatorial election?
post 45021 · question 45174
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Megan Degenfelder 49% | View → |
| 2026-08-11T21:02 |
What will be the water level of the Rhine river, according to the Kaub gauging station, on…
post 45045 · question 45194
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 79.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-11T12:02 |
What will be the average price of diesel in the lower Atlantic U.S. on August 31, 2026?
post 45044 · question 45193
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 5.165 | View → |
| 2026-08-10T18:02 |
What state will have the lowest temperature on August 31, 2026?
post 45043 · question 45192
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Alaska 66% | View → |
| 2026-08-10T06:05 |
Will a human be #1 on the leaderboard of MarketPulse on August 25, 2026?
post 45020 · question 45173
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 47.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-10T06:03 |
Will the U.S. government's 30-year treasury bond remain in the ≥5% "danger zone" for the …
post 45014 · question 45167
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 72.6% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-10T00:02 |
What state will have the hottest temperature on August 31, 2026?
post 45042 · question 45191
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Arizona 43% | View → |
| 2026-08-09T14:04 |
How much will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross domestically before August 31, 2026?
post 45091 · question 45241
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 899000000.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-09T09:03 |
Will any personnel of the International Stabilization Force be deployed into Gaza before A…
post 45010 · question 45163
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 43.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-08T15:03 |
How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in August 2026?
post 45041 · question 45190
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 5030000.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-08T06:02 |
Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record, according to Copernicus?
post 45009 · question 45162
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 26.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-07T18:03 |
What will be the result of the 2026 Florida Republican primary for the 6th Congressional D…
post 45040 · question 45189
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Fine wins, with >60% and ≤70% of the vote 30% | View → |
| 2026-08-07T14:05 |
Will Uber's takeover of Delivery Hero be approved by BaFin before September 2026?
post 45068 · question 45217
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 78.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-07T14:02 |
What will be the highest grossing movie of 2026 as of September 1, 2026?
post 45067 · question 45216
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Spider-Man: Brand New Day 88% | View → |
| 2026-08-07T03:02 |
Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in …
post 44951 · question 45094
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 22.6% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-06T18:02 |
Will any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in …
post 44950 · question 45093
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 44.1% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-06T15:03 |
How many clinicaltrials.gov studies with an LLM-based Chatbot as the intervention/treatmen…
post 44949 · question 45092
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | >5 34% | View → |
| 2026-08-06T08:02 |
How many seats will the Ädilet party win in the 2026 Kazakh legislative election?
post 45066 · question 45215
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 93.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-06T03:02 |
Will the fastest women's time in the 2026 World Bogsnorkelling Championships be under 1:30…
post 44948 · question 45091
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 27.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-05T14:02 |
Will the United States launch an attack against JNIM in Mali during August 2026?
post 45037 · question 45186
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 15.6% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-05T12:01 |
The winner of the 2026 Air Guitar World Championships will be from where?
post 44947 · question 45090
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Europe 64% | View → |
| 2026-08-05T00:03 |
Will Donald Trump's approval rating reach a new low in the second half of August 2026?
post 44946 · question 45089
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 73.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-04T15:03 |
What will be the nationwide wastewater detection category of Norovirus on September 1, 202…
post 44945 · question 45088
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Low 80% | View → |
| 2026-08-04T03:04 |
Will either Mpox clade 1b or West Nile Virus be detected in U.S. wastewater on September 1…
post 44944 · question 45087
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 73.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-03T18:04 |
What will be the NOB spread on August 31, 2026?
post 44943 · question 45086
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 53.25 | View → |
| 2026-08-03T09:03 |
Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Text Arena Leaderboard at the end…
post 44942 · question 45085
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 28.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-03T00:02 |
Will Annette Taddeo win the 2026 Florida Democratic primary for Chief Financial Officer?
post 44941 · question 45084
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 90.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-02T21:03 |
What will be the voter turnout for Florida's 2026 primary election?
post 44940 · question 45083
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 23.3 | View → |
| 2026-08-02T20:03 |
What will be the highest intraday value of the VIX in August 2026?
post 45019 · question 45172
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 21.6 | View → |
| 2026-08-01T21:03 |
How many deaths from Operation Epic Fury will the U.S. government officially report on Au…
post 44916 · question 45065
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 18.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-01T18:04 |
Will gas prices in the U.S. reach a new all-time high before September 6, 2026?
post 44810 · question 44957
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 16.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-01T15:03 |
Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?
post 44809 · question 44956
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 50.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-01T14:03 |
How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?
post 44969 · question 45115
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 502000.0 | View → |
| 2026-08-01T13:03 |
What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia for July 2026?
post 44968 · question 45114
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 4.345000000000001 | View → |
| 2026-08-01T12:04 |
Will transit calls in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be cut by half or more on August 31, 2026 c…
post 44808 · question 44955
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 35.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-01T09:07 |
Will Death Valley hit 125 degrees in August 2026?
post 44807 · question 44954
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 41.1% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-01T09:04 |
What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for Jun…
post 44797 · question 44944
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 328.57500000000005 | View → |
| 2026-08-01T06:06 |
Will Reykjavík, Iceland have a clear view of the total eclipse of the Sun on August 12, 20…
post 44806 · question 44953
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 39.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-08-01T06:03 |
What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in August …
post 44796 · question 44943
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 4.21 | View → |
| 2026-08-01T03:03 |
What will be the average gas price in the U.S. on August 17, 2026?
post 44939 · question 45082
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 4.045 | View → |
| 2026-07-31T21:02 |
How many viewers will Newsmax report having in the second quarter of 2026?
post 44938 · question 45081
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 29.9 | View → |
| 2026-07-31T12:03 |
Will the price of Brent crude oil futures close below $100 on August 17, 2026?
post 44937 · question 45080
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 73.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-31T11:03 |
Will the price of Ethereum exceed $2,200 at any point in August 2026?
post 44733 · question 44882
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 38.1% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-31T06:03 |
What will be Waymo's population served on September 1, 2026?
post 44732 · question 44881
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 8675000.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-30T14:02 |
Who will win Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?
post 44805 · question 44952
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Mir Kim 44% | View → |
| 2026-07-30T03:03 |
How many parties will obtain representation in the 2026 Kazakh legislative election?
post 44731 · question 44880
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Six 32% | View → |
| 2026-07-29T21:03 |
How many known vulnerabilities will the U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agenc…
post 44730 · question 44879
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | 17 or fewer 57% | View → |
| 2026-07-28T14:06 |
What will be the total number of global cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2…
post 44804 · question 44951
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 484.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-28T14:04 |
What will be the weekly cumulative burnt areas (ha) from forest fires in the EU on August …
post 44803 · question 44950
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 540000.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-28T03:04 |
How many mass shootings will the U.S. experience in August 2026?
post 44729 · question 44878
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | >45 and <56 27% | View → |
| 2026-07-28T00:03 |
Where will be the great white shark Percy on September 1, 2026?
post 44728 · question 44877
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina 40% | View → |
| 2026-07-27T18:03 |
How many cases will Damien Charlotin's AI Hallucination Cases database record for the seco…
post 44727 · question 44876
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 58.5 | View → |
| 2026-07-27T12:34 |
How many daily likers will there be on Bluesky on August 31, 2026?
post 44726 · question 44875
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 1009000.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-27T03:03 |
Will any deaths from cyclosporiasis occur before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?
post 44725 · question 44874
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 32.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-26T21:02 |
Will 44 or more states report cases of cyclosporiasis to the CDC as of August 31, 2026?
post 44724 · question 44873
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 38.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-26T12:03 |
How many sharks will be tracked by Ocearch on August 31, 2026?
post 44723 · question 44872
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | 398 56% | View → |
| 2026-07-26T09:02 |
Will an Anthropic model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Text Arena Leaderboard at the …
post 44722 · question 44871
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 82.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-26T06:03 |
Will Florida governor Ron Desantis endorse anyone in the 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary?
post 44721 · question 44870
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 18.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-25T17:03 |
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?
post 44706 · question 44858
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 59.5 | View → |
| 2026-07-25T14:04 |
How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2026?
post 44765 · question 44912
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | 15 23% | View → |
| 2026-07-25T14:03 |
Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?
post 44705 · question 44857
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 30.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-25T12:02 |
How many U.S. cases of cyclosporiasis will occur in the 2026 season before September 1, 20…
post 44688 · question 44842
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 9800.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-25T09:04 |
Will the total number of hospitalizations from cyclosporiasis in Michigan remain under 300…
post 44704 · question 44856
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 43.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-25T09:02 |
What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on August 14, 2026?
post 44687 · question 44841
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 40.1 | View → |
| 2026-07-25T06:03 |
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on August 15, 2026?
post 44703 · question 44855
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 6.4 | View → |
| 2026-07-25T06:02 |
Will Ocearch successfully ping Contender, the Atlantic's largest great white shark, before…
post 44686 · question 44840
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 66.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-25T00:03 |
How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protec…
post 44720 · question 44869
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 12900.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-24T15:02 |
What will be the NOB spread on August 14, 2026?
post 44719 · question 44868
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 48.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-24T09:02 |
Will the USDA-posted recall by Reser’s Fine Foods, Inc. of its Ready-To-Eat Pasta Salad Pr…
post 44656 · question 44809
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 57.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-24T06:02 |
Will the USDA-posted recall by Power Plate Meals, LLC, of its frozen meatloaf issued June…
post 44655 · question 44808
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 34.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-24T03:02 |
Will Democrats' lead in the generic congressional ballot fail to reach 7.0 points before S…
post 44654 · question 44807
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 43.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-24T00:03 |
Will the Official Loch Ness Monster Sightings Register report at least 7 sightings for 202…
post 44653 · question 44806
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 75.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-23T21:02 |
Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500-meter run be won by a robot finishing in un…
post 44652 · question 44805
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 60.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-23T14:02 |
What will UK Labour Party's 7-poll moving average percent be on August 31, 2026?
post 44764 · question 44911
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 21.4 | View → |