Reasoning traces from our Metaculus tournament bot. Click any row to see the full pipeline — plan, research, evidence, sub-question estimates, Fermi breakdown, and devil's-advocate critique.
| When | Question | Type | Tournament | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15T18:03 |
What will be Elon Musk's favorability rating on August 31, 2026?
post 44462 · question 44560
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 37.5 | View → |
| 2026-07-15T14:02 |
Will the Government of Albania or Prime Minister Edi Rama resign before September 2026?
post 44618 · question 44772
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 8.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-15T03:02 |
Will Donald Trump visit any of these southern states with close Senate races in August 202…
post 44461 · question 44559
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 83.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-14T21:03 |
How many "Level 4 – Do Not Travel" travel advisories will the US State Department issue in…
post 44460 · question 44558
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | One 26% | View → |
| 2026-07-14T00:02 |
Will China launch Chang'e 7 before September 1, 2026?
post 44459 · question 44557
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 58.1% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-13T14:03 |
What percentage of the vote will Nigel Farage receive in the Clacton parliamentary by-elec…
post 44555 · question 44709
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 62.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-13T06:02 |
Will Ken Paxton lead James Talarico in the Texas Senate race polling on August 31, 2026?
post 44458 · question 44556
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 65.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-13T03:03 |
Will Susan Collins lead the Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race polling on Augus…
post 44457 · question 44555
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 69.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-13T00:02 |
Will Pete Ricketts lead Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate race polling on August 31, 2026?
post 44456 · question 44554
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 45.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-12T10:32 |
Will Thomas Massie file to run for any elective office before August 25, 2026?
post 44554 · question 44708
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 10.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-12T03:02 |
How many visitor arrivals will the government of Fiji report for July 2026?
post 44455 · question 44553
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 100000.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-12T00:02 |
Will Donald Trump fail to attend Liv Golf New York 2026?
post 44454 · question 44552
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 65.1% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-11T12:02 |
Will a Tucker Carlson-founded political party file FEC Form 1 before September 2026?
post 44426 · question 44455
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 15.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-11T09:02 |
Will the FAO Food Price Index reach a new yearly high for July 2026?
post 44425 · question 44454
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 54.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-11T06:03 |
Will Vladimir Putin visit Iran before September 1, 2026?
post 44415 · question 44424
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 49.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-11T06:01 |
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in July 2026?
post 44424 · question 44453
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 62000.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-10T18:01 |
What state will have the hottest temperature on July 31, 2026?
post 44453 · question 44551
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Other 38% | View → |
| 2026-07-10T15:03 |
What state will have the lowest temperature on July 31, 2026?
post 44452 · question 44550
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Alaska 55% | View → |
| 2026-07-10T11:33 |
How many gold medals will Australia win at the 2026 Commonwealth Games?
post 44432 · question 44512
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 51.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-10T09:02 |
Will Anthropic or Mistral AI sign the European Commission's AI Pact before September 1, 20…
post 44379 · question 44389
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 39.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-10T06:02 |
Will any of these gubernatorial or gubernatorial primary debates be held before September …
post 44378 · question 44388
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 32.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-10T00:03 |
Will South Korea sign arms export deals worth >$5bn with any country between July 1 and Au…
post 44377 · question 44387
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 26.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-09T21:03 |
Will Apple or Meta sign the European Commission's AI Pact before September 1, 2026?
post 44376 · question 44386
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 21.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-09T15:01 |
Will the Chinese Foreign Minister visit South Korea before September 1, 2026?
post 44375 · question 44385
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 29.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-09T03:02 |
How many ETFs will Vanguard have on September 1, 2026?
post 44374 · question 44384
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Exactly 116 49% | View → |
| 2026-07-08T14:05 |
What will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?
post 44431 · question 44511
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 6.53 | View → |
| 2026-07-08T14:03 |
Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon b…
post 44498 · question 44619
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 32.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-08T09:03 |
Will France have more than one confirmed case of Ebola on September 1, 2026?
post 44373 · question 44383
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 28.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-08T06:02 |
Will any U.S. Supreme Court justice announce their retirement before September 1, 2026?
post 44407 · question 44416
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 12.6% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-08T01:03 |
What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?
post 44401 · question 44412
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 720.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-07T21:03 |
How many EU member states will the AI Act National Implementation tracker classify as havi…
post 44372 · question 44382
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | ≤9 36% | View → |
| 2026-07-07T15:03 |
What will be the result of the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?
post 44371 · question 44381
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Donalds wins, with >65% and <75% of the vote 24% | View → |
| 2026-07-07T09:01 |
What will be Russia's annual GDP growth rate for Q2 2026?
post 44390 · question 44400
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 1.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-07T06:02 |
Will any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in …
post 44369 · question 44379
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 58.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-06T18:01 |
Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in …
post 44368 · question 44378
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 46.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-06T09:02 |
Will George Soros have at least a 3-to-1 lead over the second place Democratic donor on th…
post 44400 · question 44411
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 64.6% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-06T06:02 |
Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of August 1, 2026?
post 44399 · question 44410
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Ben Horowitz & Marc Andreessen 48% | View → |
| 2026-07-06T00:02 |
How many clinicaltrials.gov studies with an LLM-based Chatbot as the intervention/treatmen…
post 44367 · question 44377
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | 2 24% | View → |
| 2026-07-05T21:02 |
What will be the nationwide wastewater detection category of Norovirus on August 1, 2026?
post 44366 · question 44376
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Low 63% | View → |
| 2026-07-04T09:02 |
Will either Mpox clade 1b or West Nile Virus be detected in U.S. wastewater on August 1, 2…
post 44365 · question 44375
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 94.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-03T20:01 |
Will Virgin Galactic have a "Going Concern" substantial doubt statement in its 10-Q SEC fi…
post 44360 · question 44371
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 94.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-03T17:03 |
What will be the highest daily number of PLA aircraft tracked by Taiwan's Ministry of Nati…
post 44256 · question 44267
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 43.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-03T15:02 |
Will another company get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in July or August 2…
post 44255 · question 44266
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 8.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-03T14:02 |
What percentage of votes will Hakainde Hichilema receive in the first round of Zambia's 20…
post 44398 · question 44409
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 58.5 | View → |
| 2026-07-03T12:02 |
Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire on August 31, 2026?
post 44254 · question 44265
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 49.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-03T09:04 |
Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nu…
post 44253 · question 44264
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 25.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-03T09:02 |
How many papers submitted to arXiv in July and August 2026 will mention agentic reinforcem…
post 44213 · question 44225
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 225.0 | View → |
| 2026-07-03T06:02 |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?
post 44252 · question 44263
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 12.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-02T14:03 |
Will the United States provide written notices of withdrawal from the USMCA before Septemb…
post 44397 · question 44408
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 8.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-02T03:02 |
Will any of these U.S. government officials visit Cuba before September 1, 2026?
post 44212 · question 44224
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 31.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-02T00:02 |
Will any North American country have a CDC travel advisory issued in July or August 2026?
post 44211 · question 44223
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 67.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-01T21:05 |
Will H.R.6644, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, become law before July 4, 2026?
post 44246 · question 44255
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 43.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-01T21:03 |
Will the CPSC publish any computer-related recalls in July or August 2026?
post 44210 · question 44222
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 69.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-01T18:02 |
Will any of these 7 companies file for bankruptcy before September 1, 2026?
post 44209 · question 44221
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 26.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-01T14:02 |
Will the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool be fully repaired before September 2026?
post 44396 · question 44407
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 32.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-01T12:03 |
Will any of the Magnificent 7 make an acquisition valued at $10B or more before September …
post 44208 · question 44220
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 42.8% YES | View → |
| 2026-07-01T06:02 |
Which lab will have the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on Aug…
post 44207 · question 44219
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Other 35% | View → |
| 2026-06-30T15:02 |
How many barrels of oil will be in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at the end of the se…
post 44206 · question 44218
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 403000.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-29T21:02 |
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 330?
post 44205 · question 44217
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 30.7% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-29T12:02 |
How many mass shootings will the U.S. experience in July 2026?
post 44204 · question 44216
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | >85 27% | View → |
| 2026-06-29T00:03 |
What will be Waymo's population served on August 1, 2026?
post 44203 · question 44215
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 8100000.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-28T12:02 |
What will be the lowest stock price of SpaceX in July 2026?
post 44202 · question 44214
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 133.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-27T18:02 |
Will Virgin Galactic fail to make any new blog posts in July 2026?
post 44201 · question 44213
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 54.3% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-27T09:03 |
How many known vulnerabilities will the U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agenc…
post 44200 · question 44212
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | 17 or fewer 61% | View → |
| 2026-06-26T18:02 |
How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protec…
post 44199 · question 44211
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 9200.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-26T15:02 |
What will be the highest stock price of SpaceX in July 2026?
post 44179 · question 44187
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 168.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-26T09:02 |
How many songs will Michael Jackson have on the Spotify Top 30 in the final full week of J…
post 44178 · question 44186
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Zero 41% | View → |
| 2026-06-26T06:01 |
How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in July 2026?
post 44177 · question 44185
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 4650000.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-25T14:02 |
Will James M. McDonald be sworn in as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York be…
post 44198 · question 44210
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 47.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-25T12:02 |
Who will be publicly designated as the National Rally candidate for the 2027 French presid…
post 44132 · question 44154
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Someone else or nobody before September 1, 2026 46% | View → |
| 2026-06-25T09:02 |
How many countries will be classified as having an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on S…
post 44131 · question 44153
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | 4 or 5 50% | View → |
| 2026-06-25T06:04 |
How many active US drilling rigs will there be for the week ending July 31, 2026?
post 44172 · question 44182
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 561.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-25T06:02 |
Will the CDC raise the Travel Health Notice status of Colombia to above level 2 before Sep…
post 44130 · question 44152
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 16.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-25T03:02 |
What will the Japan Economy Watchers Current Index be in the August release?
post 44129 · question 44151
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | 44.0 to 46.0 30% | View → |
| 2026-06-25T01:03 |
How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in June 2026?
post 44128 · question 44150
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 4800000.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-24T22:02 |
Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?
post 44197 · question 44209
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 52.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-24T21:02 |
What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?
post 44171 · question 44181
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 40.4 | View → |
| 2026-06-24T18:03 |
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on July 14, 2026?
post 44161 · question 44176
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 6.2 | View → |
| 2026-06-24T18:02 |
Will Ukraine's inflation rate decrease to below 8.0% for July 2026?
post 44127 · question 44149
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 28.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-24T14:02 |
Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?
post 44196 · question 44208
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 61.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-23T14:03 |
What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?
post 44195 · question 44207
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Fable Closed, Mythos Closed 33% | View → |
| 2026-06-23T12:01 |
How much in digital advertising revenues will the New York Times Company report in its Q2 …
post 44126 · question 44148
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 111000000.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-23T03:01 |
How many subscribers will the New York Times Company report in its Q2 2026 earnings releas…
post 44125 · question 44147
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 13335000.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-22T09:02 |
Will Ukraine's government debt be at least 2.10 trillion UAH in June 2026?
post 44124 · question 44146
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 94.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-22T03:02 |
How many visitor arrivals will the government of Fiji report for June 2026?
post 44123 · question 44145
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 94500.0 | View → |
| 2026-06-21T15:02 |
Will Caitlin Clark win any awards at the 2026 ESPYs?
post 44122 · question 44144
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 66.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-20T21:02 |
Will a male soccer player be nominated for best athlete at the 2026 ESPY Awards?
post 44121 · question 44143
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 47.9% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-20T18:02 |
Will a female soccer player be nominated for best athlete at the 2026 ESPY Awards?
post 44120 · question 44142
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 26.6% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-20T12:01 |
How many awards will Kendrick Lamar win at the 2026 BET Awards?
post 44119 · question 44141
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Two or Three 49% | View → |
| 2026-06-20T09:01 |
How many awards will Cardi B win at the 2026 BET Awards?
post 44118 · question 44140
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Zero or One 59% | View → |
| 2026-06-20T00:01 |
Will July 2026 be the warmest July on record, according to Copernicus?
post 44112 · question 44137
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 16.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-19T19:03 |
On July 8, 2026, will Marine Le Pen be ineligible to run in the 2027 French presidential e…
post 44111 · question 44136
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 48.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-19T14:03 |
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur before September 2026…
post 44030 · question 44055
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | 1 35% | View → |
| 2026-06-19T12:03 |
Before September 1, 2026, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be legally permitted…
post 44029 · question 44054
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 16.1% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-19T09:04 |
Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before September 1, 2026?
post 44028 · question 44053
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 10.5% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-19T09:03 |
Will an Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire enter into effect before September 1, 2026?
post 43928 · question 43954
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 49.4% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-19T06:04 |
Will the Liberal Party officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro as its candidate for president…
post 44027 · question 44052
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 70.2% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-19T06:02 |
Will FDA approve veligrotug for thyroid eye disease before September 1, 2026?
post 43927 · question 43953
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 78.1% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-19T03:02 |
Will FDA approve Orca-T for hematologic malignancies before September 1, 2026?
post 43926 · question 43952
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 57.0% YES | View → |
| 2026-06-19T00:03 |
Will a new U.S. Ukraine aid or defense-loan bill authorizing at least $5 billion become la…
post 43925 · question 43951
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 37.7% YES | View → |