metaculus scans
Reasoning traces from our Metaculus tournament bot. Click any row to see the full pipeline: plan, research, evidence, sub-question estimates, Fermi breakdown, and devil's-advocate critique.
| when | question | type | tournament | forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19T03:03 |
What will be the total number of people killed in US strikes on alleged drug boats as of D…
post 46063 · question 46301
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 248.5 | view → |
| 2026-10-18T21:03 |
What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identif…
post 46062 · question 46300
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 19.5 | view → |
| 2026-10-18T17:02 |
How many seats will PP and Vox collectively receive in the 2026 Spanish general election?
post 46036 · question 46278
|
discrete | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 196.5 | view → |
| 2026-10-18T14:04 |
Which government will form after the 2026 New Zealand general election?
post 46045 · question 46284
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | Labour-led 47% | view → |
| 2026-10-18T00:03 |
How many county magistrates and city mayors will the KMT win in the 2026 Taiwan local elec…
post 46061 · question 46299
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 11.9 | view → |
| 2026-10-17T18:03 |
What will be the Port of Los Angeles's total container volume during October 2026?
post 46060 · question 46298
|
numeric | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 937500.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-17T14:03 |
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to U…
post 46044 · question 46283
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 575.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-17T03:03 |
Will the AfD's national polling average in the INSA Sonntagsfrage be at least 30% on Novem…
post 46059 · question 46297
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 51.5% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-16T18:03 |
Will the United States resume its air campaign against Iran before November 10, 2026?
post 46058 · question 46296
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 37.5% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-16T14:03 |
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?
post 46043 · question 46282
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 2.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-16T09:04 |
Will the price of regular unleaded gas in the U.S. reach $5 a gallon before election day 2…
post 46057 · question 46295
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 2.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-16T06:03 |
Will there be a Florida gubernatorial debate before election day 2026?
post 46056 · question 46294
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 4.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-15T14:06 |
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a…
post 46095 · question 46333
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 16.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-15T14:03 |
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
post 46042 · question 46281
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | Fewer than 39 45% | view → |
| 2026-10-15T03:03 |
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster with its tower chopsticks before 2027?
post 46055 · question 46293
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 47.5% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-15T00:03 |
Will Ken Paxton lead James Talarico in the Texas Senate race polling on October 31, 2026?
post 46054 · question 46292
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 12.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-14T18:03 |
Will under 58% of the contiguous U.S. be in drought on October 27, 2026?
post 46053 · question 46291
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 84.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-14T12:03 |
How many daily average PLA incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ will occur for the week of Octobe…
post 46052 · question 46290
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 4.4 | view → |
| 2026-10-14T09:03 |
What will happen next with respect to the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield?
post 45969 · question 46151
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | Neither before 2027 76% | view → |
| 2026-10-14T06:03 |
Will Haiti hold the first round of its presidential election before December 14, 2026?
post 45968 · question 46150
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 3.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-14T03:04 |
Which month will have the highest officially reported TSMC consolidated net revenue among …
post 45967 · question 46149
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | October 2026 51% | view → |
| 2026-10-14T00:03 |
How many different drivers will win a Grand Prix in the 2026 F1 season?
post 45966 · question 46148
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | 6 74% | view → |
| 2026-10-13T21:02 |
How many named storms will there be in the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
post 45965 · question 46147
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 9.775 | view → |
| 2026-10-13T18:04 |
How many US circuit court judges will be confirmed during November 2026?
post 45964 · question 46146
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | 0 38% | view → |
| 2026-10-13T15:03 |
How many systems on the November 2026 TOP500 list will be exascale?
post 45963 · question 46145
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | 5 76% | view → |
| 2026-10-13T06:03 |
Will Grok 4.8 appear on SpaceXAI's release notes before November 15, 2026?
post 45962 · question 46144
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 47.5% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-13T02:03 |
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to U…
post 45416 · question 45605
|
discrete | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 573.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-13T00:03 |
How much in digital advertising revenues will the New York Times Company report in its Q3 …
post 45961 · question 46143
|
numeric | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 117450000.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-12T21:03 |
What will the United States national average gas price be on November 3, 2026?
post 45960 · question 46142
|
numeric | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 4.29 | view → |
| 2026-10-12T17:09 |
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?
post 45860 · question 46035
|
binary | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 2.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-12T17:07 |
Which government will form after the 2026 New Zealand general election?
post 45330 · question 45519
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | National-led 47% | view → |
| 2026-10-12T17:04 |
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a…
post 46051 · question 46289
|
binary | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 9.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-12T17:02 |
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
post 45255 · question 45444
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | Fewer than 39 32% | view → |
| 2026-10-12T13:03 |
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in October 2026?
post 46005 · question 46189
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 47500.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-11T21:03 |
How many mass shootings will the U.S. experience in October 2026?
post 45958 · question 46140
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 38.75 | view → |
| 2026-10-11T06:03 |
Will any North American country have a CDC travel advisory issued in October 2026?
post 45957 · question 46139
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 40.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-11T03:04 |
Where will the great white shark Percy be on November 1, 2026?
post 45956 · question 46138
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | Nova Scotia 31% | view → |
| 2026-10-10T17:03 |
What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on Election Day 2026?
post 45884 · question 46066
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 36.8 | view → |
| 2026-10-10T14:06 |
Will José Mourinho still be the manager for Real Madrid on December 31, 2026?
post 46004 · question 46188
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 74.4% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-10T14:04 |
What will be the total OpenRouter token usage December 21-27, 2026?
post 46003 · question 46187
|
numeric | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 286000000000000.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-10T06:04 |
What will be the official water level of Panama's Gatun Lake on October 31, 2026?
post 45955 · question 46137
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 85.74 | view → |
| 2026-10-09T12:08 |
Will the US approve a $10B exchange stabilisation facility for Pakistan before 2027?
post 46002 · question 46186
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 19.8% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-09T12:04 |
How many clinicaltrials.gov studies with an LLM-based Chatbot as the intervention/treatmen…
post 45954 · question 46136
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | 0 or 1 36% | view → |
| 2026-10-09T09:03 |
Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person before December 1, 2026?
post 45883 · question 46065
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 73.6% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-08T15:04 |
Will Donald Trump's approval rating reach a new low in the second half of October 2026?
post 45953 · question 46135
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 56.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-08T14:05 |
What will be the winning margin in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election runoff?
post 46001 · question 46185
|
numeric | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 4.220000000000001 | view → |
| 2026-10-08T12:03 |
How many license plate readers mapped in the USA will be displayed by DeFlock.org on Novem…
post 45952 · question 46134
|
numeric | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 148560.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-07T18:05 |
Will the winning pumpkin at the 2026 Terminator weigh-off be greater than or equal to 2,00…
post 45951 · question 46133
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 17.6% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-06T22:03 |
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential election?
post 46000 · question 46184
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | Flávio Bolsonaro 81% | view → |
| 2026-10-06T17:13 |
Will the US approve a $10B exchange stabilisation facility for Pakistan before 2027?
post 45809 · question 45990
|
binary | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 16.4% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-06T17:09 |
What will be the total OpenRouter token usage December 21-27, 2026?
post 45689 · question 45878
|
numeric | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 271000000000000.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-06T17:05 |
Will José Mourinho still be the manager for Real Madrid on December 31, 2026?
post 45857 · question 46032
|
binary | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 76.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-06T17:03 |
What will be the winning margin in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election runoff?
post 45735 · question 45920
|
numeric | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 3.28 | view → |
| 2026-10-05T17:34 |
Will Gavin Newsom call a special session of the California Legislature on AI before Januar…
post 45875 · question 46056
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 32.6% YES | view → |
| 2026-10-01T14:04 |
What will be the total spending by all Senate candidates in the 2026 US election cycle?
post 45846 · question 46021
|
numeric | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 1726000000.0 | view → |
| 2026-10-01T04:03 |
How many games will the 2026 World Chess Championship last?
post 45849 · question 46024
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | 14 28% | view → |
| 2026-09-30T14:06 |
What will be the highest intraday value of the VIX between October 1 and December 24, 2026…
post 45868 · question 46043
|
numeric | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 25.46 | view → |
| 2026-09-30T14:03 |
How many politicians will leave their cabinet positions in the UK government before 2027?
post 45845 · question 46020
|
multiple_choice | fall-futureeval-2026 | 0 61% | view → |
| 2026-09-29T21:03 |
Will any country other than the DRC have more than 100 confirmed cases of Bundibugyo ebola…
post 45848 · question 46023
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 10.6% YES | view → |
| 2026-09-29T14:02 |
Will Trump demolish the Kennedy Center before January 1, 2027?
post 45844 · question 46019
|
binary | fall-futureeval-2026 | 15.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-09-28T17:10 |
What will be the total spending by all Senate candidates in the 2026 US election cycle?
post 45220 · question 45413
|
numeric | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 1662000000.0 | view → |
| 2026-09-28T17:07 |
How many politicians will leave their cabinet positions in the UK government before 2027?
post 45250 · question 45442
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 0 59% | view → |
| 2026-09-28T17:05 |
What will be the highest intraday value of the VIX between October 1 and December 24, 2026…
post 45515 · question 45706
|
numeric | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 24.84 | view → |
| 2026-09-28T17:02 |
Will Trump demolish the Kennedy Center before January 1, 2027?
post 45810 · question 45991
|
binary | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 15.4% YES | view → |
| 2026-09-28T14:04 |
What will be the margin of seats won by Labour over National in the 2026 New Zealand gener…
post 45847 · question 46022
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = -0.8 | view → |
| 2026-09-21T17:10 |
Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before 2027?
post 45419 · question 45608
|
binary | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 16.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-09-21T17:08 |
Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?
post 45670 · question 45859
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | Yashar 55% | view → |
| 2026-09-21T17:06 |
What will be the US national debt on December 31, 2026?
post 45219 · question 45412
|
numeric | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 40864000000000.0 | view → |
| 2026-09-21T17:02 |
How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?
post 45619 · question 45809
|
discrete | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 5.62 | view → |
| 2026-09-14T17:09 |
What will be the open market US Dollar/Iranian Toman exchange rate on December 31, 2026?
post 45340 · question 45524
|
numeric | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 233800.0 | view → |
| 2026-09-14T17:07 |
Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
post 45216 · question 45409
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | Gukesh Dommaraju 55% | view → |
| 2026-09-14T17:05 |
Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
post 45425 · question 45614
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | Labour Party 67% | view → |
| 2026-09-14T17:03 |
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
post 45617 · question 45807
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | Harry Kane 55% | view → |
| 2026-09-07T18:14 |
[PRACTICE] What will the average "new forecasters per day" be on this question before this…
post 45516 · question 45707
|
discrete | fall-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 6.45 | view → |
| 2026-09-07T18:12 |
Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?
post 45464 · question 45655
|
binary | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 43.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-09-07T18:09 |
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
post 45383 · question 45572
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | Other individual 36% | view → |
| 2026-09-07T18:07 |
What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential elec…
post 45262 · question 45452
|
numeric | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | p50 = 46.5 | view → |
| 2026-09-07T18:05 |
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
post 45381 · question 45571
|
multiple_choice | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 0 36% | view → |
| 2026-09-07T18:03 |
Will the United States attack Oman before 2027?
post 45230 · question 45423
|
binary | metaculus-cup-fall-2026 | 16.6% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-20T12:02 |
What will be the outcome of Duane "Keffe D" Davis's Tupac Shakur murder trial by September…
post 45183 · question 45376
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Mistrial, or no verdict yet reached 62% | view → |
| 2026-08-19T15:02 |
Will Israel have formally accepted the Board of Peace's 15-point second-phase Gaza plan as…
post 45182 · question 45375
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 34.9% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-19T09:02 |
Will the U.S. and Argentina have signed a new 123 civil nuclear cooperation agreement as o…
post 45181 · question 45374
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 16.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-18T15:03 |
Will Suge Knight testify in the Duane "Keffe D" Davis murder trial on or before September …
post 45180 · question 45373
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 48.4% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-18T09:02 |
Will Brazil's Chamber of Deputies have approved PL 3481/2026 in a plenary floor vote as of…
post 45179 · question 45372
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 38.5% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-17T15:05 |
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in August 2026?
post 45206 · question 45401
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 9500.0 | view → |
| 2026-08-17T15:02 |
Will Argentina's Senate pass the 'Super RIGI' bill on or before September 10, 2026?
post 45178 · question 45371
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 47.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-17T09:03 |
Will United Airlines operate a nonstop Newark-Tel Aviv flight on September 8 or 9, 2026?
post 45177 · question 45370
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 52.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-16T12:32 |
Will the WHO report that the 2026 Ebola outbreak has spread to a 7th Congo province before…
post 45175 · question 45365
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 69.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-15T20:02 |
Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both …
post 45203 · question 45395
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 8.0% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-15T09:04 |
Will the officially targeted launch month of the Nuri rocket be something other than Octob…
post 45099 · question 45245
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 32.5% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-15T09:02 |
Who will be the largest Democratic donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?
post 45039 · question 45188
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | George Soros 87% | view → |
| 2026-08-15T06:04 |
Will South Korea announce a specific date for the 5th Nuri rocket launch before September …
post 45098 · question 45244
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 57.4% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-15T06:02 |
Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?
post 45038 · question 45187
|
multiple_choice | summer-futureeval-2026 | Ben Horowitz & Marc Andreessen 37% | view → |
| 2026-08-14T14:02 |
What will be the Boliviano-USD exchange rate on August 31, 2026?
post 45174 · question 45363
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 11.65 | view → |
| 2026-08-14T09:02 |
Will the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 become law before September 10, …
post 45054 · question 45203
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 30.2% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-14T06:02 |
Will Grok 4.7 appear on SpaceXAI's release notes before September 5, 2026?
post 45053 · question 45202
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 42.9% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-14T03:03 |
Will 21 year-old Jackson Koivun be named to the United States team for the 2026 President…
post 45052 · question 45201
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 35.8% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-14T00:02 |
Will the Swiss Canton of Valais have a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2,…
post 45051 · question 45200
|
binary | summer-futureeval-2026 | 76.3% YES | view → |
| 2026-08-13T21:02 |
As of September 2, 2026, how many people will be impacted by tech layoffs according to Tru…
post 45050 · question 45199
|
numeric | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 186500.0 | view → |
| 2026-08-13T18:03 |
How many Swiss cantons will be classified as "Extremely Dry" according to the Swiss drough…
post 45049 · question 45198
|
discrete | summer-futureeval-2026 | p50 = 6.0 | view → |