Will Arizona have at least 188 data centers this year?

- [2026-11-13] The Data Center Map Arizona directory page, which resolves the contract, rendered live as "197 Facilities from 47 Operators". The page text reads "We currently have 197 data centers listed, from 3 markets in Arizona", and the table total is 197. That is 9 above the 188 threshold. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/ - [undated, earlier cache] A search-engine snapshot of the same page showed 182 facilities. Its market split was Phoenix 162, Tucson 19, Nogales 1. The listing has therefore grown by about 15 since that snapshot, and I could not date the snapshot. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/ - [2025-12-05] AZCIR, citing Data Center Map, reported 164 Arizona data centers and a 7th-place national rank. Going from 164 to 197 in about 11 months implies roughly 3 net additions a month, with some uncertainty. That is a trend estimate, not a published rate. https://azcir.org/news/tag/data-center-map/ - [2026-11-12] Cleanview counts 208 Arizona data centers on 61 campuses, including 28 buildings under construction. Cleanview counts individual buildings, so its figure is not comparable to Data Center Map's. https://cleanview.co/data-centers/arizona - [2026-10] dcmap.us, a separate site, tracks 182 Arizona facilities and projects, including 53 planned and 16 under construction. Its Phoenix market page shows 165. https://dcmap.us/states/arizona/ - [2026-11-06] DCD reports SpaceXAI plans a 6 GW, nine-building campus in Cochise County, with construction possibly starting in March 2027. It is only a proposal, so it is unlikely to add a Data Center Map listing before year-end. https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/spacexai-data-center-arizona-cochise-county-elon-musk/ - [2026-11-10] Arizona Capitol Times reports that legislative Democrats and AG Kris Mayes back a statewide data center pause, and that regulation may be an early test for the new Democratic trifecta. This is a policy risk to new construction, but it would not remove existing listings. https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2026/11/10/data-center-regulation-could-be-first-test-of-arizonas-new-democratic-trifecta/ - [2026-11-03] KJZZ reports the Pinal County La Osa rezoning was rejected, and that the Project Blue data center is underway in Pima County. https://www.kjzz.org/business/2026-11-03/largest-data-center-proposal-in-arizona-heads-to-cochise-county-1st-community-meeting-scheduled - [2026-10-01] Casa Grande's Planning and Zoning Commission approved a conditional use permit for the Grande Valley data center campus. Permit filings continue in Mesa and Phoenix, for example a Q3 2026 Mesa building filed 2026-08-20. https://colocationscout.com/phoenix-data-center-space.html BOTTOM LINE: The resolution source showed 197 on 2026-11-13, already 9 above the 188 threshold. A "No" would need a net drop of 10 or more listings by 2026-12-31, for example through a directory clean-up or consolidation. The listing trend has been upward, and I found no evidence of any such clean-up. NOT FOUND: Any history of Data Center Map's Arizona count for 2026, or any record of past mass delistings. I also could not confirm the date of the 182 snapshot.

- [2026-11-13] The Data Center Map Arizona directory page (the resolution source) now shows 197 data centers, 3 markets, 47 operators. That is already above the 188 threshold, by 9. I read it via a rendered fetch. <https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/> - [2026-10 (undated cache)] A search-snippet cache of the same page showed 182 (Phoenix 162, Tucson 19, Nogales 1). The page therefore rose about 15 between that snapshot and today. The snapshot's date is unknown, so the pace is uncertain. <https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/> - [2026-02 (approx., from cached URL timestamp)] The Data Center Map US page showed Arizona at 160, with the US total at 4,767. <https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/> - [2025-12-05] AZCIR cited Data Center Map for 164 Arizona data centers, ranked 7th nationally. <https://azcir.org/news/2025/12/05/does-arizona-rank-in-top-10-for-data-centers-nationwide-yes/> - [Undated, about mid-Oct 2026] ABC15 cited 160 existing and proposed Arizona facilities on DataCenterMap.com, ranked 8th. This looks like a stale figure. <https://www.abc15.com/news/local-news/investigations/why-arizona-is-now-a-hotspot-for-data-center-construction-and-what-residents-want-to-change> - [2026-10-15] ABC15 reported Arizona at 182 (107 operating, 16 under construction, 53 planned). The source it names is dcmap.us, a different site from Data Center Map, with a US total of 5,098. The matching 182 on datacentermap.com may be coincidence or a conflation. <https://www.abc15.com/news/local-news/arizona-is-a-major-player-in-the-data-center-boom-and-the-biggest-projects-are-still-to-come> - [2026-10] dcmap.us lists 182 Arizona facilities and projects, data updated Oct 2026. It includes 6 inactive or historical entries. <https://dcmap.us/states/arizona/> - [2026-10-09] CNBC reported on a Kalshi US-wide contract resolved by Data Center Map. Traders gave 75% to more than 5,100 US data centers before 2027, up from 60% two weeks earlier. Data Center Map then showed more than 4,700 US facilities. That is evidence the Data Center Map listing count trends upward. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/kalshi-traders-see-high-odds-of-5000-plus-data-centers-by-2027.html> - [2026-11-12] Other trackers count differently and are not comparable. Cleanview counts 208 buildings (79 operating). Compute Atlas counts 51, and the ITAMG directory counts 103. <https://cleanview.co/data-centers/arizona> - Trend: Data Center Map's Arizona count went from about 160–164 (Dec 2025–Feb 2026) to 197 (Nov 2026). That is roughly +33–37 in about 9–11 months. It has not been flat or falling over this window. BOTTOM LINE: The current listed count (197) is already 9 above the 188 threshold, and the series has been rising. The outcome therefore turns mainly on whether the count drops by 10 or more by Dec 31, for example through delisting or deduplication. I found no precedent for such a drop. I did not look for sibling Arizona strikes. NOT FOUND: Historical month-by-month Data Center Map Arizona counts (Wayback snapshots), any record of Data Center Map pruning or deduplicating listings, and Kalshi sibling strikes for Arizona. I did not search for the contract's own price, as instructed.

YES means: the Data Center Map Arizona directory page shows a whole-number count of 188 or more at 11:59 PM ET on 2026-12-31. - [2026-11-13] I re-rendered the resolution page. Its title reads "197 Facilities from 47 Operators" and its table total is 197, so the YES condition is already met by 9. A second fetch attempt was refused with HTTP 429 and the render succeeded. YES therefore only has to hold through 12-31. It needs no new listings. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/ - [2026-11-13] Path to YES: the count holds. A NO would need a net loss of at least 10 listings (5%) in 48 days. The same page's earlier cache of 182 is below the threshold, so the count has moved the other way recently. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/ - [2026-11-13] The listing method makes mass deletion less likely. Data Center Map lists campuses and individual buildings as separate entries. The Edged Phoenix page lists Meta Mesa Buildings 1–5 as separate entries beside the campus entry, and the Prime Phoenix campus page lists five separate PHX01 buildings. Listings are also kept after their stage changes: the Edged page shows its stage going from under construction to operational in April 2026, not removal. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/phoenix/edged-phoenix/ - [2026-11-13] Planned and under-construction sites stay listed and flagged "may not be available". Examples are NTT Mesa PH10 (planned), RadiusDC Phoenix I DC2 (under construction, phase 1 due Q4 2026) and Compass PHX II (under construction). So cancellations or policy pauses do not obviously reduce the count. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/phoenix/ntt-mesa-campus/ - [2026-11-13] Other directories give higher or comparable counts to the 197 figure. Baxtel shows 204 Arizona facilities (Phoenix 187, Tucson 13), and DC Hub shows 215 as of 2026-09-05. A listing source with 197 is not an outlier. Any merging at Data Center Map would be to the downside, but nothing suggests it. https://baxtel.com/data-center/arizona - [2026-11-13] Pipeline supplies fresh listings. Cleanview shows 28 Arizona buildings under construction on 16 campuses (as of 2026-11-12), and the Novva Mesa campus is reported targeting a late-2026 Phase 1 opening. Each new campus or building is a candidate for a new Data Center Map entry, so upside is more likely than downside. https://cleanview.co/data-centers/arizona - [2026-10-09] Data Center Map's own national total is the subject of a separate Kalshi contract. Per CNBC, traders priced rising odds that the US total would keep growing. This suggests the operator maintains and grows the dataset actively, and it is not shrinking. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/kalshi-traders-see-high-odds-of-5000-plus-data-centers-by-2027.html - [2026-10] The Arizona trend on Data Center Map is up. A brightlio page from about mid-October 2026 still quoted 160 listings from 46 operators, and the live page now shows 197 from 47 operators. That is roughly +37 against only +1 operator, so new entries are mostly buildings added to existing operators' campuses. That is a bulk, building-level expansion, not a one-time import that could be reversed. https://brightlio.com/data-centers-in-arizona/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is simple persistence. The resolution page already shows 197 against a 188 threshold, and the series has been rising through 2026. A NO needs an unprecedented delisting of 10 or more entries in under seven weeks. NOT FOUND: Any Data Center Map announcement of a clean-up or deduplication, any dated month-by-month history of the Arizona count, or any precedent for a drop of 10 or more in a state count. I also did not find a Kalshi sibling Arizona strike.

YES means: the whole-number Arizona count on Data Center Map's Arizona directory page at 11:59 PM ET on 2026-12-31 is 188 or higher. - [2026-11-13] A fetch of the resolving page showed 197, split Phoenix 177, Tucson 19, Nogales 1. The 182 snapshot was Phoenix 162, so all of the roughly 15-listing rise is in Phoenix. Tucson (19) and Nogales (1) did not move. This pattern fits a bulk import or a re-classification of Phoenix-area listings, not steady organic adds. A bulk change could also be reversed. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/ - [2026-11-13] The site's methodology page says website counts use "unique facilities". That means every Facility listing with no parent, or with a Campus or Multi-Tenant Building parent. A Campus counts as one facility only where its building count is unknown. Counting rules are therefore editorial. Changing a campus's child records or its building count would shift the state total. The page also says counts can be cached up to 24 hours. https://www.datacentermap.com/research/data/ - [2026-11-13] The same page admits the database "will always have" incorrect, outdated or incomplete listings. M&A is the most common cause of outdated listings. Data Center Map says it normalizes and manually reviews externally flagged records. Merging or deleting duplicate and obsolete Arizona listings is therefore possible in principle. I found no record of it having happened. https://www.datacentermap.com/research/data/ - [2026-11-13] The cushion is thin against the possible editing volume. Data Center Map's global total moved from 14,895 to 15,077, about 1.2%, between the cached and live versions of the methodology page. The cache date is unknown. A 9-listing Arizona margin is about 4.6% of the state's 197. A "No" needs a net fall of 10 or more, which is a clean-up scale far above routine churn. https://www.datacentermap.com/research/data/ - [2026-11-13] The directory has been written to track "planned" and "land banked" stages, not only operating sites. Listings for speculative projects can be withdrawn. Pinal County's La Osa rezoning was rejected (KJZZ, 2026-11-03). A rejection could prompt removal of land or planned records, but each such removal is only a few listings. The Cochise County 6 GW proposal is not yet a land-use approval. A Democratic-trifecta data-center pause is only a proposal (Capitol Times, 2026-11-10). Neither is likely to cut 10 or more listings. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/arizona/ - [2026-11-12] Other trackers disagree widely on Arizona. Baxtel shows 204 (Phoenix 187, Tucson 13). Cleanview shows 208 on 61 campuses. datacenters.com shows 119 and 145 on two pages. morethanjustparks shows 87. A source can sit at 197 and still be an outlier on method, so Data Center Map's figure depends heavily on its own internal rules. https://baxtel.com/data-center/arizona - [2026-10 to 2026-11] Several third-party pages still quote lower Data Center Map-derived figures: Brightlio says 160 listings from 46 operators, and ABC15 also cited 160. These are stale and show the count rose rapidly late in the period. Fast recent jumps, as opposed to a gradual series, are the kind that sometimes get partially undone. https://brightlio.com/data-centers-in-arizona/ - [2026-10-09] The CNBC-reported Kalshi national contract resolves on Data Center Map as well. The US total was "more than 4,700", and the contract threshold is 5,100. Data Center Map's national count rising by that much between early October and year-end would require heavy additions. If the Arizona jump came from a one-off import, further gains are not guaranteed, but this does not push the count below 188. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/kalshi-traders-see-high-odds-of-5000-plus-data-centers-by-2027.html - [2026-11-13] Resolution technicalities that favour No are few. The rule says the "whole-number summary count displayed" governs, so the header or table total is what counts. Cache delay of up to 24 hours is immaterial. Only a drop below 188 at the exact measurement time resolves No, and later changes are ignored. Status-quo inertia points to Yes, not No. The best No path is a Data Center Map re-count or dedup between now and 12-31. https://www.datacentermap.com/research/data/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest No case is thin. It needs a net fall of at least 10 listings from 197, for example through a re-methodology, parent/child consolidation or reversal of a one-off Phoenix import (Phoenix +15 with Tucson flat). I found no evidence that any of these is under way. NOT FOUND: Any Data Center Map announcement of a clean-up, dedup or methodology change in 2026. Any Wayback history of the Arizona count (the datacentermap.com fetch returned a 429 on a second attempt for the US page). The date of the 182 snapshot. Any record of a past drop of 10 or more in a single state's count.