Will Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited report Above -1% canadian tire store comparable sales growth in 2026?

- [2026-11-12, scheduled] Q3 2026 results are due before market open, with the call at 8:00 a.m. ET. This is the only scheduled company event before Q4. As of today (2026-11-10) the Q3 figure is not yet public. https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/media/news-releases/press-release-details/2026/Media-Advisory---Canadian-Tire-Corporation-to-Report-Third-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx - [2026-05-14] Q1 2026 (ended Apr 4): CTR comparable sales were -2.3%, with seasonal and gardening categories leading the decline. Consolidated comps were -1.0%. Comps are shifted one week because 2025 had 53 weeks. https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/media/news-releases/press-release-details/2026/Canadian-Tire-Corporation-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx - [2026-08-13] Q2 2026 (ended Jul 4): CTR comps were -0.8% (+5.5% on a two-year stack). Consolidated comps were +0.7%, SportChek +8.0% and Mark's +4.2%. Management blamed weak gardening and summer climate-control sales on weather. https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-canadian-tire-tops-q2-2026-eps-forecast-93CH-4858126 - [2026-08-13] On the Q2 call, management said early Q3 sales improved as weather normalized. It is planning for growth in the back half on a 52-week basis, and expects some SportChek moderation as it cycles prior-year events. Q3 headwinds include fuel surcharges. https://quartr.com/companies/canadian-tire-corporation-limited_11188 - [2026-08-13] Globe and Mail: CTR comps fell 0.8% in Q2. Roughly half of SportChek's Q2 growth came from World Cup items. Q2 was also hurt by pressure on consumers' gas spending. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadian-tire-second-quarter-2026-results-earnings/ - [Prior-year comparison bases] CTR Q3 2025 comps were +1.2% (https://ca.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-canadian-tires-q3-2025-exceeds-eps-forecasts-93CH-4296598). CTR Q4 2025 comps were +2.7% in a 14-week quarter helped by strong December weather and in-stock positions. https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/media/news-releases/press-release-details/2026/Canadian-Tire-Corporation-Reports-Strong-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-and-Significant-Progress-in-First-Year-of-True-North-Transformation-Strategy/default.aspx - [2026-02/03, FY2025 release] The Q4/full-year release does report a full-year CTR comp figure: +3.7% for FY2025 on a comparable 52-week basis. This is the format the market's resolution source will probably follow for FY2026. Same URL as the previous bullet. - [Own arithmetic, not a company figure] Weighting CTR quarterly sales roughly Q1 about 19%, Q2 about 30%, Q3 about 25% and Q4 about 26%, H1 CTR comps work out to about -1.4%. To print above -1.0% (i.e. -0.9% or better) for the year, H2 CTR comps would need to average about -0.5% or better. The weights are my assumption, and the company may compute the annual figure differently. - [2026-11-05/06] Consensus for Q3 is EPS about C$3.78–3.81 and revenue about C$4.26–4.27B (Investing.com/Google Finance). I found no published CTR comp consensus. https://www.investing.com/equities/canadian-tire-corporation-limited-earnings - [Sibling Kalshi market] A "Canadian Tire comparable sales growth in Q3" market (strikes shown: above 2%, above 3%) closes Nov 12, 6:00am EST. Its prices were not retrieved. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxctcq/canadian-tire-kpi/kxctcq-26novcomp - [2026-05-14] CEO Greg Hicks described consumers as "resilient but selective". Scotiabank noted "incremental pessimism" on Canadian consumers. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadian-tires-retail-sales-dip-amid-slow-start-to-spring-shopping/ BOTTOM LINE: Through Q2, CTR comps are -2.3% and -0.8%, so the full year sits near -1.4% year-to-date. Staying above -1% needs roughly flat-to-slightly-negative H2 comps (about -0.5% or better) against prior-year comps of +1.2% (Q3) and +2.7% (Q4). Management says Q3 started better. The Nov 12 Q3 print is the key near-term data point, and Q4 will likely be reported in about March 2027. NOT FOUND: the actual Q3 2026 CTR comp (not yet released), any analyst consensus for Q3 CTR comps, any Q3-to-date commentary after Aug 13, and the exact wording of the company's full-year comp definition for FY2026. The official CTC press-release pages returned 403 on direct fetch, so the Q2 and Q1 figures were confirmed via search excerpts of those pages and the Investing.com transcript.

**Metric ambiguity.** The market says "canadian tire store comparable sales", which most likely means the Canadian Tire Retail (CTR) banner comp, not consolidated comps. I could not confirm how Kalshi maps the series. The CTR annual comp may only appear in the annual report or MD&A rather than the press-release headline. **Bar.** It is "Above -1%" for fiscal 2026. Fiscal 2026 is a 52-week year, and 2025 had 53 weeks. 2026 comps are therefore shown on a shifted-week basis. - [2026-05-14] Q1 2026 (ended Apr 4): CTR comps were -2.3%. Consolidated comps were -1.0%, SportChek +3.3% and Mark's +1.2%. Management blamed a long winter, a delayed spring, and strong winter sales pulled into the 2025 53rd week. https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/investors/financial-news/financial-news-details/2026/Canadian-Tire-Corporation-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx - [2026-08-13] Q2 2026 (ended Jul 4): CTR comps were -0.8%, or +5.5% on a two-year stack. Consolidated comps were +0.7%. SportChek was +8.0% (about half of that from the World Cup) and Mark's +4.2%. CTR's decline was driven by weather-sensitive gardening and summer climate-control categories. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/canadian-tire-corporation-reports-second-100200843.html - [2026-08-13] H1 2026 CTR comps are roughly -1.4%. That is my own estimate, using a rough 18%/28% Q1/Q2 sales weighting, which I did not verify against filings. H2 CTR comps would need to average above about -0.7% for the full year to clear -1%. This is arithmetic from the two quarterly prints, not a source claim. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadian-tire-second-quarter-2026-results-earnings/ - [2026-08-13] Management outlook on the Q2 call, per a Quartr summary of the call: early Q3 sales growth was seen as weather normalized, with growth planned for the back half on a 52-week basis. It also expected SportChek to moderate and noted fuel-surcharge margin headwinds in Q3. Quartr is a secondary summary, not the transcript. https://quartr.com/companies/canadian-tire-corporation-limited_11188 - [2026-11-12 scheduled] Q3 2026 results are due Nov 12, 2026 at about 6:00 a.m. ET. They had not been released as of Nov 10. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/CTC-T/pressreleases/7852258/media-advisory-canadian-tire-corporation-to-report-third-quarter-2026-results/ - [2025-11-06] Q3 2025 comparison base: CTR comps were +1.2%, an easy comparison. Consolidated comps were +1.8%, which missed analyst estimates. https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/media/news-releases/press-release-details/2025/Canadian-Tire-Corporation-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results-Announces-Annual-Dividend-Increase-for-16th-Consecutive-Year-and-Share-Repurchase-Intention/default.aspx - [2026-02] Q4 2025 comparison base: CTR comps were +2.7% in a 14-week quarter, driven by a strong December and winter. CTR comps were +4.7% in Q1 2025. Q4 2026 is therefore the tougher comparison. The 2025 full-year consolidated comp was +4.1%. https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/media/news-releases/press-release-details/2026/Canadian-Tire-Corporation-Reports-Strong-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-and-Significant-Progress-in-First-Year-of-True-North-Transformation-Strategy/default.aspx - [2025-02 / 2024-02] Historical consolidated full-year comps: 2021 +8.2%, 2022 +2.7%, 2023 -2.9%, 2024 -1.7%, 2025 +4.1%. Three of the last five years were above -1%. The two sub-(-1%) years were the weak-consumer years 2023 and 2024. https://s201.q4cdn.com/326551073/files/doc_financials/2024/ar/2024-Annual-Report-to-Shareholders-ENG-AODA-File_FINAL-s.pdf - [2024-02-15] CTR quarterly comps during the weak 2023–24 period were volatile, with swings between roughly -6.8% and +1.1% (for example Q4 2023 -6.8%, Q1 2024 -0.6%, Q2 2024 -5.6%, Q4 2024 +1.1%). Quarterly CTR comps can move several points on weather alone. https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/media/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/Canadian-Tire-Corporation-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Results/default.aspx - [2026-11-05] Sell-side consensus for the Q3 2026 comp was not found. The Cerbat Gem snippet gives only EPS and revenue expectations: EPS about $2.66 and revenue about $3.0B, for the OTC ticker. https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2026/11/05/canadian-tire-cdnaf-projected-to-announce-quarterly-earnings-on-thursday.html - [2026-11 snapshot] Kalshi has a sibling Q3 2026 consolidated-comp market (Above 1%, Above 2%, Above 3% strikes), with Q3 results due Nov 12. I did not record its prices, per instructions. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxctcq/canadian-tire-kpi/kxctcq-26novcomp - [2026-08-13] If the market resolves on consolidated comps instead, H1 2026 was about -0.1% (Q1 -1.0%, Q2 +0.7%), so the -1% bar would be much easier to clear. https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/investors/financial-news/financial-news-details/2026/Canadian-Tire-Corporation-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx BOTTOM LINE: If the metric is CTR, the full year starts from a hole of about -1.4% for H1. It needs H2 CTR comps better than roughly -0.7%, helped by an easy Q3 comparison (+1.2%) and early Q3 growth commentary. Q4 faces a hard comparison (+2.7%, 14-week quarter) and the result is weather-dependent. If the metric is consolidated, it is already near -0.1% for H1 and much safer. The Nov 12 Q3 release will be the key update. NOT FOUND: sell-side consensus for Q3 or full-year CTR comps. The Q3 2026 actual. The exact full-year CTR comp definition Kalshi uses. The Q2 call transcript text on Q3-to-date trends. The corp.canadiantire.ca Q2 page returned 403, so the Q2 figures come from the Yahoo copy of the press release.

YES means: Canadian Tire Retail (CTR) full-year fiscal 2026 comparable sales growth, as printed in the Q4/full-year release, is above -1.0% (-0.9% or better). If Kalshi instead maps the series to consolidated comps, a much higher figure would qualify. - [2026-11-02] National Bank's Vishal Shreedhar (Globe and Mail analyst roundup, about 7 days old) models Q3 CTR same-store sales accelerating from Q2's -0.8%. His reasons are encouraging first-half-of-Q3 sales trends and better weather, partly offset by a tepid consumer. This is a sell-side estimate of the Q3 comp, which my colleagues did not find. He keeps "sector perform" and raised his target to C$214. I only saw this via a search snippet, because the page refused a direct fetch. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-mondays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-292/ - [2026-08-13] The weather explanation is quantified. COO TJ Flood said seasonal categories were two-thirds of CTR's Q2 decline. Counting other weather-linked categories, weather was more than 100% of the decline, and non-weather CTR businesses were "actually up". Flood also said Q3 results had been "a little bit better" once weather arrived. Source: Q2 call Q&A (GuruFocus via Investing.com), a search excerpt; the page was not fetchable. https://ca.investing.com/news/company-news/canadian-tire-corp-ltd-cdnaf-q2-2026-earnings-call-highlights-eps-up-10-as-sportchek-and--4804407 - [2026-08-13] A mechanism for sell-through: CTR dealer inventory ended Q2 up 1%, mainly in seasonal goods, and sell-through improved after quarter-end. Q2 CTR revenue fell 3.5% on lower dealer restocking. The inventory was already in the channel, so any weather-driven demand rebound can show up in comps quickly. The same call also noted patriotic purchasing in the 2025 base, which is a Q2 drag that will not recur. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/canadian-tire-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-14/ - [2026-10-23] Canadian macro backdrop for Q3: retail sales rose 1.2% m/m in August, with all nine subsectors up and general merchandise up 1.0%. Statistics Canada's advance estimate for September is +0.7%. TD Economics says Q3 retail sales are on track for about 4.0% annualized nominal growth and expects real consumer spending growth of 2.6% annualized in Q3. This was confirmed on a fetched page. https://economics.td.com/ca-retail-sales - [2026-10-23] Regional detail favours CTR. Ontario retail sales rose 2.2% in August and Toronto rose 4%. Alberta, a weak spot for CTR in Q3 2025, slipped only 0.1%. The July dip of 0.8% was followed by the rebound. https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2026/10/canada-retail-sales-rebound-set-to-continue-in-september/ - [2025-11-06] The Q3 2025 base was soft. Management said CTR sales slowed through that quarter, partly because of the Canada Post strike, and Q3 2025 CTR comps were only +1.2%. This is easier than Q4's base, so Q3 is the best chance to bank a positive print and cut the year-to-date deficit. https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-canadian-tires-q3-2025-exceeds-eps-forecasts-93CH-4338395 - [2026-08-13] Q2's two-year stack was +5.5% for CTR, against about +4.7% in Q1 2025. Management says it is "planning for growth in the second half of 2026 on a 52-week basis". Its own stated expectation is for CTR to be near flat or better in H2, which is what YES needs, per my colleagues' arithmetic of about -0.5% to -0.7% or better. https://www.tradingview.com/news/marketbeat:295eb019b094b:0-canadian-tire-q2-earnings-call-highlights/ - [2026-02-19] Q4 2025 consolidated comps were +4.2%, and CTR was +2.7%, the weakest of the banners. CTR's comp has been the laggard against a flattering 14-week December. Even so, CTR had positive comps in each of the last four quarters before Q1 2026's weather and 53rd-week shift. The Q1 -2.3% is therefore partly a calendar and weather artifact rather than structural. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/investor-outlook/2026/02/19/investor-outlook-canadian-tire-jumps-after-earnings-beat/ - [Path to YES] The single most likely path has three parts. First, Q3 CTR comps come in around +1% or better on normalized weather and dealer sell-through, as National Bank models. Second, Q4 holds roughly flat to slightly negative (about -1% or better) against the +2.7% base. Third, the company's full-year figure is dominated by the H2 weights. Under my colleagues' weights, a Q3 of +1.5% would lift the year-to-date comp to about -0.6%, and a Q4 near -1% would then leave the year at about -0.8%. These are my own arithmetic from the colleagues' weights, not company data. - [Definition upside] If the market maps to consolidated comps (Q1 -1.0%, Q2 +0.7%, with SportChek and Mark's strong), YES needs only modest H2 growth. Kalshi's sibling Q3 market ladder starts at 1%/2%/3% (shown strikes were above 2% and above 3%). That implies the market treats Q3 as likely positive, though I did not record prices. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxctcq/canadian-tire-kpi/kxctcq-26novcomp BOTTOM LINE: The best YES case is a weather-driven rebound. Q2's whole shortfall was attributed to weather, and early Q3 was better. There is an analyst model of accelerating Q3 CTR comps, a soft Q3 2025 base, firm Canadian retail data, and management planning for H2 growth. A Q3 print of about +1% or better would leave only a modest Q4 hurdle. The Q4 base of +2.7% is the main obstacle. NOT FOUND: the actual Q3 2026 result, which is due Nov 12. A numeric sell-side consensus for the CTR comp beyond National Bank's directional "accelerate" call. Any CTR commentary after Aug 13. The company's exact full-year CTR comp definition for FY2026. Full-page fetches of the Globe, Investing.com and MarketBeat pages failed, so those items rest on search excerpts.

YES means: Canadian Tire's reported fiscal-2026 full-year comparable sales growth for the Canadian Tire store/CTR banner is -0.9% or better (above -1%). - [2026-08-13] The Q2 release, fetched in full, shows how thin CTR's H2 margin for error is. CTR Q2 comps of -0.8% fell on weather-hit categories and were only partly offset by automotive. Management said it cut prices for value-seeking customers. The price cuts did not produce a positive CTR comp in a quarter whose weather had already normalized in the second half. Q3 therefore has to turn positive on volume, not just on weather. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/canadian-tire-corporation-reports-second-100200843.html - [2026-08-13] Mix distortion in the headline. Consolidated comps rose +0.7% in Q2 only because of SportChek (+8.0%, roughly half from World Cup items per the colleagues' Globe cite) and Mark's. The CTR banner, the metric a literal reading of "canadian tire store" most likely means, is the weak one, and its H2 tailwinds are not the ones lifting the consolidated figure. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/canadian-tire-corporation-reports-second-100200843.html - [2026-02-18] Q4 is the hard base. The Q4 2025 release shows CTR Q4 comps at +2.7% against a quarter in which Seasonal and Gardening grew by double digits on winter and holiday products. It also cites a "one of the best holiday seasons in recent memory." CTR's full-year 2025 comp was +3.7% on a 52-week basis. Q4 2026 must lap a weather-driven December. Normal weather alone implies a negative Q4 CTR comp. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-tire-corporation-reports-strong-110200983.html - [2026-02-18] The 2025 comp definition is a 52-week comparable basis, so the extra week's sales are stripped out. Q4 2026 therefore gets no 53rd-week help. The Q1 weakness blamed on pulled-forward 2025 sales is already in the books and cannot be recovered in H2. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-tire-corporation-reports-strong-110200983.html - [2026-02-24] The company said 2025 comps exceeded 4% in three of four quarters. Q1 2025 was +4.7% (cited in the colleagues' Base Rate report). Against those bases, 2026 CTR comps are -2.3% and -0.8%. Q4's +2.7% base is the only 2025 quarter still unlapped after Q3's +1.2%. This is a two-year-stack argument: management's own Q2 framing (+5.5% stack) implies underlying growth of about 2–3% per year, and flat-to-negative 2026 prints are what you get when that is applied to a fast-growing 2025 base. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/canadian-tire-q4-earnings-call-highlights-2026-02-24/?.tsrc=rss - [2026-05-14] Q1 missed badly. Consolidated comps were -1.0% against a consensus of more than +2% (S&P Capital IQ via Globe and Mail). That is a roughly 3-point miss, which shows the analyst community overestimated 2026 comps once already. Scotiabank flagged "incremental pessimism" on Canadian consumers. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadian-tires-retail-sales-dip-amid-slow-start-to-spring-shopping/ - [2026-10-23] The macro backdrop is mixed, not clearly supportive. StatCan's September advance estimate was +0.7% m/m after August +1.2%, with general merchandise stores +1.0% in August. That is nominal and inflation-inflated: CPI was 3.1% y/y in September. Volumes were +1.8% y/y in August. Economists warned the rebound could fade after the September trade-war escalation with the U.S. Alberta, a CTR weak spot in Q3 2025, fell 0.1%. Overnight swaps priced more than 80% odds of a Bank of Canada hike. Higher rates and fuel costs are a headwind for discretionary categories. https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2026/10/canada-retail-sales-rebound-set-to-continue-in-september/ - [2026-10-23] TD Economics frames the August bounce as a recovery from a steep July decline in general merchandise and food stores. Retail sales fell 0.8% in July, so Q3 CTR performance across July–September is not uniformly strong. https://economics.td.com/ca-retail-sales - [2026-08-13] The back-half growth statement is hedged. Management said "more than half" of Q3 remained and the consumer backdrop was "dynamic". Early-Q3 improvement means only that the start of the quarter was better than Q2's weak weather, not that CTR comps were positive. SportChek moderation and fuel-surcharge headwinds were flagged. These are statements about growth in total sales/retail sales on a 52-week basis, and may not mean positive CTR comps. https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-canadian-tire-tops-q2-2026-eps-forecast-93CH-4858126 - [2026-11-12] Sell-side revenue forecasts imply a soft quarter. MarketScreener's Q3 net sales forecast was C$4,256M against Q3 2025's C$4,106M, about +3.7%. That is revenue and includes Petroleum price effects and dealer shipments, not comps. The Q4 forecast of C$4,419M is below Q4 2025's C$4,551M. This points to a Q4 decline, consistent with the 14-week comparison, though much of that reflects the extra week. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CANADIAN-TIRE-CORPORATION-1409621/calendar/ - [2026-11-10] Resolution technicality. A Kalshi sibling market for Q3 shows only above-1%, above-2% and above-3% strikes. That suggests Kalshi is tracking the consolidated comp for the quarterly series (consolidated is the headline). If the annual market is read as the consolidated figure, the bar is easier (Q1 -1.0%, Q2 +0.7%). A CTR reading is the harder one and a literal reading of "canadian tire store". The FY2025 release did print a CTR full-year figure (+3.7%), so a CTR full-year figure is likely to be available to resolve against. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxctcq/canadian-tire-kpi/kxctcq-26novcomp - [2023–2024 history] In weak years (2023 consolidated -2.9%, 2024 -1.7%) the annual comp stayed below -1% even when single quarters were positive (Q4 2024 CTR +1.1%). A weak H1 is hard to rescue with one strong quarter. The deadline is also a risk: the fiscal year ends Jan 2, 2027 and the Q4 release is due around mid/late-Feb 2027, before the May 2 close, so there is no timing escape route. BOTTOM LINE: On the CTR banner, YTD comps near -1.4% have to be offset by H2 averaging about -0.5% or better. Q4 laps a weather-boosted +2.7% base with no extra week, and Q2's -0.8% came despite price cuts, so the status quo of 2026 CTR comps below zero favours NO. The best NO-side hedge is the metric ambiguity: if resolution uses the consolidated figure, the NO case is much weaker. NOT FOUND: the actual Q3 2026 CTR comp (due Nov 12), any sell-side consensus for Q3 or full-year CTR comps, any company statement after Aug 13 on Q3-to-date CTR trends, the exact wording of how Kalshi maps "canadian tire store comparable sales" to a reported series, and whether the FY2026 release will print a CTR full-year comp explicitly. The corp.canadiantire.ca pages were not fetched directly. The Q1 2026 release itself was not fetched; Q1 figures come from the Globe and Mail excerpt.