Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related claude_news earnings_data code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

Boeing's 2026 commercial airplane deliveries depend on production ramp (especially 737 MAX), 787 output, FAA caps, supply chain, and labor. Need current market price anchor, recent delivery trends, and news on production targets/issues.

# Event Will Boeing deliver more than 620 commercial airplanes in full-year 2026? # Outcomes to forecast - **Yes**: Boeing reports >620 commercial deliveries in 2026 - **No**: Boeing reports ≤620 commercial deliveries in 2026 # Kalshi market anchor **KXBAA-28JANDELIV-620 YES = 88.00%** — sharp recent move (+25pp in 7 days and 30 days), implying market re-priced on new information (likely May 2026 delivery pace data and FAA rate-47 approval). Volume: ~2,076 contracts/day. Active only 4 days; range 63%–88%. This is a newly listed market with a strong directional signal but limited price history. # Sub-question answers 1. **Kalshi price for >620?** — 88% YES as of latest data; +25pp move in past week. [Kalshi_direct] 2. **2024 and 2025 YTD deliveries?** — 2024 full-year: 348 aircraft (strike/quality crisis). 2025 full-year: 600 aircraft (highest since 2018). 2026 YTD: 143 in Q1; ~250 through May. [Aerotime, SEC 8-K, AirInsight] 3. **Boeing's 2026 production guidance?** — ~500 737/MAX deliveries (CFO Malave); 90–100 Dreamliner deliveries; implied total ~655–665 across all programs. [AirInsight] 4. **FAA cap on 737 MAX?** — Cap was 38/month; FAA approved rate 47 as of late May 2026; Boeing CEO Ortberg confirmed "off and rolling at rate 47." Fourth production line starting July 6. [Aerotime, AirInsight] 5. **Supply chain/labor issues for 2026?** — Minor: March–April wiring issue affected small number of MAX; 787 delivery lag due to cabin certification (not production). No major labor disruption. Spirit AeroSystems reintegration ongoing risk. [AirInsight] 6. **Monthly run-rate needed to exceed 620?** — 621/12 = **51.8/month** average. At 250 through May (50/month pace), Boeing needs ~371 more over Jul–Dec (~61.8/month in H2) — achievable if rate-47 deliveries accelerate and 787 logjam clears. [Code analysis, AirInsight] # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [SEC 8-K Q1 2026] Boeing delivered 143 aircraft in Q1 2026, up 10% YoY 2. [AirInsight] 250 deliveries through May 2026 (pace: ~50/month) 3. [Aerotime] FAA approved 737 MAX production rate of 47/month; Boeing now running at that rate 4. [AirInsight] CFO guided ~500 MAX deliveries + 90–100 787s for 2026 full year 5. [Aerotime] 2025 full-year: 600 deliveries (447 737, 88 787, 35 777, 30 767) 6. [SEC 8-K] 787 producing at 8/month in Q1 2026; only 27 delivered through May (certification lag) 7. [AirInsight] 787 delivery lag expected to resolve as new-cabin certifications clear 8. [Code] Historical base rate >620: 6/15 years (40%), but 0/6 post-2018 years # Cross-market signals - **Kalshi related**: No other Boeing delivery buckets visible for direct arbitrage - **Polymarket**: No matching Boeing delivery markets found - **Sportsbook implied**: N/A # Analyst opinions and speculation - [SimpleFlying] "Boeing should be capable of delivering well over 650 aircraft in 2026" - [AirInsight] "Even at rate 47, Boeing should be covered to meet its delivery guidance if nothing happens" - [SimplyWallSt] China geopolitical/certification risk flagged as demand-side wildcard - [Code/Monte Carlo] Prior simulation (using stale 2025 estimates) yielded only ~31% — but was built on 2025 estimate of 580, which proved accurate at 600, and did not incorporate rate-47 FAA approval # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (>620)**: - Supporting: 250 delivered through May, ~50/month pace; rate 47 now approved and running; implied guidance 655–665; 787 backlog expected to clear H2; 2025 came in at 600 (near-miss already) - Opposing: H2 needs ~62/month to hit 621 (above current pace); 787 delivery lag is real (27 in 5 months vs. 90–100 target); Spirit integration risk; one quality/labor event could shave 30–50 deliveries - **No (≤620)**: - Supporting: 787 severe delivery underrun so far (27 vs. ~40 needed); H2 acceleration required is steep; historical 0/6 post-2018 success rate; market was at 63% just days ago - Opposing: Rate-47 approval is a genuine step-change; guidance explicitly targets ~655+; recovery trajectory from 600→620 is modest (+3.4%) # Gaps / unknowns - June–December 2026 delivery data not yet available - 787 certification clearance timeline for new-cabin aircraft (key H2 swing factor) - China delivery risk if geopolitical tensions escalate - Whether rate-47 translates to deliveries on expected lag (~1–2 months) - 777X certification status for 2026 # Calibration anchors - **Kalshi anchor: 88% YES** — reflects post-rate-47-approval repricing - 2025 actual (600) shows Boeing is in striking distance; only +3.5% growth needed - Required H2 pace (~62/month) is above current ~50/month — meaningful but not extreme stretch - 787 lag is the biggest wildcard; if it resolves partially, target is easily cleared - Monte Carlo (pre-rate-47 data) gave ~31% — now substantially outdated given FAA approval and delivery pace; market's 88% likely reflects this new information correctly

1. Both forecasters treat the 787 delivery lag as a secondary risk, but the evidence shows only 27 delivered through May against a ~40 needed pace (to hit 90–100 for the year), meaning Boeing would need roughly 63–73 787 deliveries in 7 months—an enormous acceleration that neither forecast explicitly stress-tests as a potential 30–50 delivery shortfall on its own. 2. Neither forecaster adequately grapples with the H2 run-rate math: 371 deliveries needed in roughly 7 months (~53/month) is tighter than their language implies, and the brief explicitly states ~62/month is needed if the June gap is factored in—a pace Boeing has not demonstrated post-2018, which is underweighted given the "0/6 post-2018 success rate" base rate cited. 3. Both forecasters discount the Kalshi anchor (88%) by similar amounts (~3–5pp) without clearly justifying why their idiosyncratic discount is the right magnitude; the brief notes the market moved +25pp in 7 days on hard new information (FAA rate-47 approval), suggesting the anchor embeds materially more information than a stale prior and the discount may itself be poorly calibrated. 4. Neither forecaster considers the China geopolitical/certification risk flagged by SimplyWallSt as a demand-side wildcard; if China blocks or delays 737 MAX deliveries, Boeing could face a sudden inventory buildup that suppresses delivery counts in H2 regardless of production rate. 5. The rate-47 approval to delivery conversion lag (cited as ~1–2 months in the brief) means Boeing may not see meaningful rate-47-driven deliveries until August–September, compressing the effective acceleration window and making the H2 ramp steeper than either forecaster acknowledges.

82% (50% confidence)

Yes: 82% No: 18%

Anchoring near Kalshi's 88% but discounting modestly for legitimate risks the critique highlights: 787 certification lag (27 vs ~40 needed pace), rate-47-to-delivery conversion lag pushing benefit to late H2, and weak post-2018 execution base rate. Guidance and rate-47 approval still favor Yes meaningfully.

Total pipeline time: 148.0s