Tools chosen: kalshi_direct claude_news congress_bills kalshi_related polymarket_related wikipedia

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a Kalshi political longshot market about Trump being added to Mt. Rushmore by 2029. Need market price anchor, news on any actual proposals/executive actions, related markets, and base rate context.

# Event Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore (executive action or bill signed) before Jan 21, 2029? # Outcomes to forecast - **Yes** — executive order signed or bill enacted directing Trump's likeness be carved - **No** — no such action before Jan 21, 2029 # Kalshi market anchor **Current YES price: 8.70%** (KXMTRUSHMORE-29) - 7-day change: **–2.30%** | 30-day change: **–6.30%** (declining sharply) - Price range over 37 days: 8.70%–19.00% - Avg daily volume: 74 contracts (modest liquidity) - Trend is decisively downward — market is pricing this out over time. # Sub-question answers 1. **Current Kalshi price?** — 8.70% YES, down ~6.3% over past 30 days. [kalshi_direct] 2. **Concrete executive/administrative steps taken?** — No executive order signed; no White House official statement. Trump himself has not initiated any action. One ally (Rep. Luna) introduced H.R. 792 on Jan 28, 2025, stalled in House Natural Resources Committee. [MEAWW, Northeastern, luna.house.gov] 3. **Active congressional bills?** — H.R. 792 (Luna, Jan 28, 2025) exists but is stalled in committee with no advancement. Congress API returned no directly matching bill by title (search results appear mismatched), confirming no other bills in pipeline. [BillTrack50, claude_news] 4. **NPS/geological feasibility & commissioned studies?** — NPS has explicitly confirmed: *"no viable locations left for additional carvings."* Rock adjacent to existing faces is "very fractured, very soft" and unsuitable. No feasibility study commissioned. [MEAWW, NBC News] 5. **Related prediction markets?** — No Polymarket market found on this topic. Only Kalshi has it (KXMTRUSHMORE-29). [polymarket_related, kalshi_related] # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [luna.house.gov] H.R. 792 introduced Jan 28, 2025 — referred to House Natural Resources Committee, no further action. 2. [NBC News] NPS: carved portion "thoroughly evaluated," no viable carving locations remain. 3. [NBC News] Rock near existing faces is fractured and soft — physically unsuitable for new carving. 4. [Northeastern] Congressional approval required; bill would need near-unanimous House Republicans + Senate Democratic support — extremely unlikely. 5. [Northeastern] NEPA and National Historic Preservation Act reviews mandated even if a bill passed. 6. [Northeastern] Lakota Sioux hold sacred claims; strong legal standing for injunctions. 7. [The Fulcrum] Every prior proposal to add a face to Mt. Rushmore has been rejected. 8. [Wikipedia/Mt. Rushmore] Land is subject to ongoing Sioux legal dispute; Sioux refuse compensation and demand land return. # Cross-market signals - **Kalshi related:** No other relevant Rushmore markets. Unrelated Trump markets (manufacturing, debt) provide no signal. - **Polymarket:** Zero markets found on this topic. - **Sportsbook implied:** None found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - [Northeastern legal scholar] Trump would likely need congressional approval, making unilateral EO legally vulnerable. - [Newsweek] Even in optimistic scenario, Senate filibuster threshold makes passage near-impossible without Democratic votes. - [MEAWW fact-check] Viral claims of a signed EO are false; no credible reporting supports imminent action. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (~3–5%):** Supporting: Trump has expressed interest historically; Rep. Luna bill exists; Republican Congress majority. Opposing: NPS geological impossibility; bill stalled with no momentum; no White House action; massive legal/tribal obstacles; NEPA review alone takes years; market declining. - **No (~95–97%):** Physical impossibility of carving is the single strongest factor independent of politics; legislative path near-insurmountable; declining market price; no historical precedent for any addition succeeding. # Gaps / unknowns - Whether Trump could attempt a novel EO bypassing traditional NPS process (legally dubious) - Any behind-the-scenes White House interest not yet public - Whether market resolve requires *action taken* vs. *carving completed* (description says "executive action taken or bill enacted" — lowers bar slightly, but EO would face immediate legal challenge) # Calibration anchors - **Kalshi current YES: 8.70%** (anchor — and declining) - Historical base rate: 0/∞ prior proposals to add faces have succeeded - Geological veto: NPS confirmation of physical impossibility is a hard constraint regardless of political will - **Assessment: Kalshi at 8.70% appears generous; true probability closer to 2–4%**, given physical impossibility + legislative impossibility + no executive momentum

1. Both forecasters correctly identify the geological veto as a hard constraint, but neither explicitly addresses the "action taken vs. carving completed" ambiguity flagged in the brief — a Trump EO directing a study or symbolic authorization could theoretically resolve YES without requiring actual carving, which is a non-trivial distinction given Trump's historical interest and willingness to issue legally dubious EOs for political signaling. 2. Neither forecaster engages with the tail scenario of a politically motivated stunt EO issued purely for electoral or cultural-war optics with no genuine intent to proceed — this is a distinct mechanism from serious legislative action, and Trump's documented history of performative executive orders makes it worth explicitly pricing even if legally vulnerable. 3. Both anchors land identically at 4% YES, suggesting neither independently derived their number — the evidence brief itself suggests 2–4% as fair value, and with the Kalshi price declining sharply from 19% to 8.7% over 37 days, there is a reasonable case the true probability is closer to 2–3%, making 4% slightly generous rather than conservative. 4. Neither forecaster weights the four-year time horizon adequately — with ~4 years remaining, the cumulative opportunity for a single symbolic executive action (even one that faces immediate legal injunction) is non-trivial, and the brief's own framing of "2–4%" may underweight the compounding probability of an impulsive, low-cost political gesture over a full presidential term. 5. The Lakota Sioux legal standing is mentioned in the brief as providing "strong legal standing for injunctions," but both forecasters treat this as a legislative obstacle rather than a near-certain injunctive barrier that would effectively prevent execution even if an EO were signed — this distinction matters for calibrating whether an EO alone resolves YES.

4% (65% confidence)

Yes: 4% No: 96%

Both forecasters and the brief converge near 3-5%. The resolution bar (EO signed OR bill enacted) is lower than completed carving, and over a 4-year horizon a symbolic stunt EO is non-trivial, justifying staying slightly above the 2-3% floor. But geological impossibility, stalled legislation, no White House momentum, and a declining Kalshi price (8.7%) all support pricing below market.

Total pipeline time: 101.1s