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Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? — Todd Blanche

KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA · Politics · 2026-05-07
66%
Agent
66%
Market Price
+0.0%
Edge
50%
Confidence
Volume: 1,272,094
Spread: 1.0c
Days to resolution: 989
Markets in event: 22
Final Rationale
Blanche is already serving as acting AG following Bondi's April 2026 firing, with explicit Trump backing — this is the dominant evidence driving my estimate above 50%. I partially accept Challenge 1 (the related '2 AGs at 28%' market suggests acting status may not fully resolve YES, which is why I don't go higher) and accept Challenge 3 (my sq2 was slightly underweighted given Blanche's incumbency advantage). I reject Challenge 2's downward pressure as overstated — the question hinges on Blanche being the FIRST new AG, which acting status arguably already satisfies, and Senate confirmation seems likely given GOP majority. The high-liquidity market at 67% reflects efficient pricing of these dynamics, and my modest divergence below it isn't supported by strong specific evidence, so I converge near market.
Price vs. prediction
How the market moved after the agent's call. Solid blue line is the actual market price; dashed line is the agent's static forecast at $t{=}0$.
$n = 58$ follow-ups
Re-scan Context
This market has been scanned before. Previous predictions:
DatePredictedMarket PriceConfidence
2026-04-05 22% 17% 52%
1. Planner Opus · Fermi decomposition + tool plan
Tools chosen: kalshi_data kalshi_orderbook article_search web_search wikipedia_lookup
Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)
  1. Will Pam Bondi leave or be removed as Attorney General before Jan 20, 2029? (w=0.35)
  2. If a new Attorney General is appointed, will Todd Blanche be the first new person to hold that position before Jan 20, 2029? (w=0.40)
  3. Is Todd Blanche currently in a position (proximity to Trump, political standing) that makes him a plausible AG candidate? (w=0.25)
Planner reasoning
This question resolves YES only if: (1) Pam Bondi departs as AG during the Trump second term (before Jan 20, 2029), AND (2) Todd Blanche — not some other person — is the FIRST replacement. This is a conjunctive probability requiring both events. Key considerations: - Todd Blanche is Trump's former personal defense attorney, which gives him insider proximity but also potential conflicts. He was deputy AG or in a DOJ-adjacent role in early 2025. - The base rate of AG turnover in a 4-year term is moderate (~40-50% chance of at least one change), but historically many AGs serve a full term. - Even if Bondi departs, Blanche would be competing against other plausible candidates (e.g., loyalists, senators, prosecutors). - Temporal analysis: With 989 days remaining (through Jan 2029), there is substantial time for turnover. If Bondi remains through 2028, Blanche's chances diminish further. For YES: Bondi would need to resign/be fired, Trump would need to nominate Blanche, and Senate would need to confirm — a multi-step process taking months. - The Kalshi market price will be highly informative here as prediction markets aggregate information on internal Trump administration dynamics. - Key differentiator from generic 'next AG' questions: this is specifically about Blanche being FIRST, meaning any interim AG or different successor would resolve NO.
2. Research Parallel tool calls · legacy v2
ToolStatusTimeItemsSummary
kalshi_data OK 1.9s -
kalshi_orderbook OK 0.2s -
article_search OK 0.6s -
web_search OK 60.8s -
wikipedia_lookup OK 1.6s -
3. Evidence Synthesis Sonnet · 13 items · legacy v2
#StrengthCredibilityDirectionSourceClaimPriced In
1 STRONG 98 ↑ UP article_search Trump fired Pam Bondi as Attorney General on April 2, 2026, ending her 14-month tenure due to dissatisfaction with her handling of the Epstein files and failure to prosecute political enemies aggressively enough. Yes
2 STRONG 95 ↑ UP wikipedia_lookup Pam Bondi served as the 87th U.S. Attorney General from 2025 to 2026, confirming her departure is a completed fact. Yes
3 MODERATE 60 NEUTRAL article_search The related Kalshi market 'How many Attorneys General will Trump have? — 2' prices at 28%, indicating the market currently assigns a 72% probability that Trump will have MORE than 2 AGs total, which in turn means significant probability of additional AG turnover beyond Blanche. Yes
4 STRONG 98 ↑ UP article_search Trump immediately named Todd Blanche as acting Attorney General upon firing Bondi on April 2, 2026, making Blanche the first new person to hold the AG position after Bondi. Yes
5 STRONG 82 ↑ UP web_search According to administration officials, the permanent AG job 'appears to be Blanche's to lose,' with White House expressing strong support and Trump 'very pleased' with Blanche's performance; under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act, Blanche can serve as acting AG up to 210 days (until approximately November 2026). Yes
6 MODERATE 70 ↓ DOWN article_search Lee Zeldin (EPA administrator) was reported as a possible permanent replacement for Bondi on April 2, 2026, suggesting Blanche faces at least one named competitor for the permanent AG role. Yes
7 MODERATE 75 ↓ DOWN article_search A federal judge may dismiss a marquee Trump DOJ criminal case and could even summon Blanche to testify due to his prior public statements about the Abrego Garcia case — a legal complication that could undermine his tenure. Yes
8 MODERATE 65 ↓ DOWN article_search Analysis articles note that Blanche 'will inherit many of the same pressures that undid his predecessor' and that their personal history 'might not be enough,' signaling ongoing risk of Blanche failing to satisfy Trump. Yes
9 STRONG 80 ↑ UP kalshi_data The Kalshi market for 'Todd Blanche as next AG' prices at 67%, up 35 percentage points over the past 30 days, with high volume (36,344 avg daily contracts), reflecting the market's strong but not certain view that Blanche will become the confirmed/permanent AG. No
10 STRONG 92 ↑ UP web_search Blanche served as Trump's personal defense attorney in three criminal cases, was appointed Deputy AG in January 2025, and is now acting AG — placing him at the apex of DOJ with exceptionally close personal ties to Trump. Yes
11 STRONG 90 ↑ UP article_search Blanche held his first press conference as acting AG on April 7, 2026, and appeared on 'Face the Nation' on April 26, 2026, demonstrating active public performance as the nation's top law enforcement official. Yes
12 STRONG 78 ↑ UP web_search White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt discounted media reports that Trump may consider other MAGA law experts over Blanche, reinforcing Blanche's favored status. Yes
13 MODERATE 72 ↓ DOWN article_search Analysis from multiple outlets notes that the AG position has proven nearly impossible to hold under Trump, with Bondi serving the shortest confirmed-AG tenure in 60 years, suggesting Blanche faces structural risks even with strong personal ties. Yes
Information Gaps
  • No data on whether a formal Senate nomination for Blanche as permanent AG has been submitted or is imminent — critical for resolution.
  • No data on Senate confirmation prospects for Blanche if nominated — vote counts, opposition senators, or committee scheduling unknown.
  • No information on whether the question resolves on 'acting' AG status or requires Senate-confirmed permanent AG status — this is a critical ambiguity.
  • The question's resolution criteria (first 'new person' to be AG) may already be satisfied by Blanche's acting status, but this is unclear.
  • No data on Blanche's performance trajectory after April 2026 — whether Trump satisfaction has remained high or declined.
  • No data on other named candidates (e.g., Lee Zeldin) and their current probability or administration standing relative to Blanche.
  • The '2 AGs' Kalshi market at 28% vs. the Blanche market at 67% creates an apparent tension — unclear if markets are pricing acting vs. confirmed AG differently.
Key Uncertainties
  • Whether the question resolves on Blanche serving as acting AG (already occurring) or only if he is Senate-confirmed as permanent AG — this is the single largest uncertainty.
  • Whether Trump will formally nominate Blanche for permanent AG before the 210-day acting limit (~November 2026) or choose a different candidate like Zeldin.
  • Whether Blanche will satisfy Trump's demands for aggressive prosecution of political enemies, given that failure to do so ended Bondi's tenure.
  • Legal complications (Abrego Garcia case, potential testimony) that could damage Blanche's effectiveness and standing with Trump.
  • Whether another AG change would occur before Jan 20, 2029, which would affect how 'first new person' is counted if Blanche only serves as acting AG.
Market Context
Price: 0.67 · 7d: +0.04 · 30d: +0.35
Volume: HIGH — avg 36,344 contracts/day is very significant · Depth: HIGH — 33,089 depth reported
Reliability: HIGH — very high volume, deep orderbook, rapid price appreciation following confirmed Bondi firing and Blanche appointment; market appears to be efficiently pricing new information. Notable tension: related '2 AGs' market at 28% implies ~72% chance of 3+ AGs, which may reflect uncertainty about Blanche's permanence or subsequent turnover.
4. Independent Forecaster Opus · No market price · legacy v2 Did NOT see market price
Independent estimate: 60% (43% confidence)
base rate
62%
45% conf
evidence driven
55%
40% conf
contrarian
62%
45% conf
Spread
7pp
Low disagreement
sq1: Will Pam Bondi leave or be removed as Attorney General before Jan 20, 2029?
99%
This is already a resolved fact — Bondi was fired April 2, 2026. Probability ~99%.
sq2: If a new AG is appointed, will Todd Blanche be the first new person to hold that position before Jan 20, 2029?
70%
Blanche is already serving as acting AG since April 2026. The key question is whether the market resolves on acting status or requires Senate confirmation. The previous forecast analysis suggests the market at ~17-19% in April 2026 implied acting status doesn't count. However, the question states 'first new person to be Attorney General' — Blanche IS the first new person serving in that role. If interpreted literally, this should already resolve YES (~95%). If it requires Senate confirmation, then: (a) Trump appears to favor Blanche ('his to lose'), (b) 210-day acting limit forces decision by ~November 2026, (c) competitors like Zeldin exist but Blanche has White House backing, (d) Senate confirmation likely if nominated given GOP majority. Probability of Senate-confirmed Blanche being first: ~55-65%. Weighting interpretations: ~50% chance acting counts (~95% YES) + 50% chance permanent required (~55% YES) = ~75%. Slight discount for legal complications (Abrego Garcia case) and Trump's history of impulsive firings. Final: 70%.
sq3: Is Todd Blanche in a plausible position to be AG?
95%
He IS the acting AG. Maximum proximity, maximum trust. ~95%.
Show full reasoning trace
base rate: Historically, AG turnover within a 4-year term occurs ~40% of the time. In Trump's first term, he had 4 AGs. Base rate of any specific named individual being the first replacement is low (~15-25%) absent specific evidence.
evidence updates: Overwhelming evidence that Blanche is already serving as acting AG (sq1 and sq3 essentially resolved). The dominant uncertainty is the resolution criteria interpretation. Prior forecast at 22% with market at 17% suggested acting status doesn't count, but the question text itself ('first new person to be Attorney General') seems to favor a YES given Blanche IS serving in that capacity. Trump's apparent strong preference and the 210-day acting clock pushing toward formal nomination support Blanche's confirmation prospects. Competitors like Zeldin discount this slightly.
combination method: Conditional multiplication, with sq1 and sq3 near certainty, leaving sq2 as the determinative factor.
final: I'm placing this at 62%, slightly below my pure calculation to account for: (1) market signals suggesting stricter resolution criteria, (2) legal complications (Abrego Garcia), (3) Trump's volatile firing pattern, (4) possibility of another candidate emerging in the 989 days remaining. Confidence is moderate (0.45) because the resolution criteria interpretation is the key uncertainty and I haven't seen the rule text directly.
ensemble: {'ensemble_count': 3, 'perspectives': {'base_rate': {'p_yes': 0.62, 'confidence': 0.45}, 'evidence_driven': {'p_yes': 0.55, 'confidence': 0.4}, 'contrarian': {'p_yes': 0.62, 'confidence': 0.45}}, 'spread': 0.07, 'individual_p_yes': {'base_rate': 0.62, 'evidence_driven': 0.55, 'contrarian': 0.62}}
5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet · legacy v2 Market price revealed
Missing Info Reasoning Flaw
Challenges
  1. The forecaster's interpretation weighting (50/50 acting vs. confirmed) is poorly justified. Most Kalshi/Polymarket-style questions about 'next AG' historically resolve on Senate-confirmed status, not acting capacity. The related '2 AGs' market at 28% (implying 72% chance of 3+ AGs) strongly suggests the market does NOT count Blanche's acting status as resolving — otherwise that market would be much higher. This is a meaningful internal market consistency signal the forecaster acknowledges but doesn't fully integrate.
  2. 989 days until resolution is a LONG horizon. The forecaster underweights the probability that even if Blanche is confirmed, he could be fired/replaced before Jan 2029, and another 'new person' could emerge. Trump's first term had 4 AGs; the question asks about 'next' AG which likely means the immediate successor. If Blanche is the immediate successor (acting or confirmed), this resolves on that interpretation — but the long horizon adds risk of nomination withdrawal, legal scandal (Abrego Garcia case), or Trump replacing him before confirmation.
  3. Sq2 reasoning has a logical tension: if 'acting counts' (~95% YES) is given 50% weight, then sq1 and sq3 being near-certain combined with this interpretation should already push the answer higher than 70%. The conditional multiplication 0.99 × 0.70 × 0.95 = 0.66, which is essentially at market. The 'final' adjustment to 62% is reasonable but the sq2 estimate itself may be slightly low given Blanche is already in the role and has explicit Trump backing.
  4. The forecaster lists 'Trump's volatile firing pattern' as a downward factor, but this cuts both ways for THIS question — if Trump fires Blanche and appoints someone else as AG, that someone else (not Blanche) would be the answer to a different question. For the Blanche-specific question, what matters is whether Blanche becomes/remains the named AG before resolution.
Market comparison: Forecaster: 59.7%, Market: 67%. The 7.3pp divergence is modest and reflects genuine uncertainty about resolution criteria (acting vs. confirmed AG). The market is highly liquid (36k contracts/day, deep orderbook) and has rapidly priced in the Bondi firing and Blanche appointment. The forecaster's lower estimate is defensible given long time horizon (989 days) and possibility of Blanche being replaced before formal confirmation, but the market's higher price likely reflects participants' read that acting status may count or that confirmation is highly likely.
6. Aggregator Opus · final calibrated forecast
66% (50% confidence)
Blanche is already serving as acting AG following Bondi's April 2026 firing, with explicit Trump backing — this is the dominant evidence driving my estimate above 50%. I partially accept Challenge 1 (the related '2 AGs at 28%' market suggests acting status may not fully resolve YES, which is why I don't go higher) and accept Challenge 3 (my sq2 was slightly underweighted given Blanche's incumbency advantage). I reject Challenge 2's downward pressure as overstated — the question hinges on Blanche being the FIRST new AG, which acting status arguably already satisfies, and Senate confirmation seems likely given GOP majority. The high-liquidity market at 67% reflects efficient pricing of these dynamics, and my modest divergence below it isn't supported by strong specific evidence, so I converge near market.