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Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?

KXPOLIOELIM-30 · Health · 2026-05-06
50%
Agent
7%
Market Price
+42.9%
Edge
20%
Confidence
Volume: 32,174
Spread: 0.1c
Days to resolution: 1335
Markets in event: 1
Final Rationale
Pipeline error: Error code: 529 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'overloaded_error', 'message': 'Overloaded'}, 'request_id': 'req_011CamZaaEb5YArBksEGbR7m'}
Price vs. prediction
How the market moved after the agent's call. Solid blue line is the actual market price; dashed line is the agent's static forecast at $t{=}0$.
$n = 58$ follow-ups