Scan: Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before June 1, 2026?

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Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before June 1, 2026? — Before Jun 1, 2026

KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B260601 · Politics · 2026-04-19

Agent

33%

Market Price

-25.0%

Edge

45%

Confidence

Volume: 17,661

Spread: 3.0c

Days to resolution: 43

Markets in event: 3

Final Rationale

My independent estimate of 1.4% was driven by confirmed/likely departures for Gonzales (~97%) and Swalwell (~85%) combined with base-rate estimates of 5% each for Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick. I PARTIALLY ACCEPT the Devil's Advocate critique on selection effects and information gaps — being named in a specific EFFECTIVELEAVE contract is itself signal, and the absence of research coverage is not the same as absence of catalysts, so I widen sq3/sq4 to ~20-25% each, yielding a joint of ~4-5%. I REJECT full conformity to the 35% market price because the conjunction math remains unforgiving and the anomalous $0.01/$0.01 orderbook spread suggests the last-trade price may be stale or reflect thin recent trading on just Gonzales/Swalwell news rather than informed conviction on all four. I land at 8%, meaningfully above my independent estimate but well below market, reflecting genuine uncertainty about Mills/Cherfilus-McCormick while maintaining that simultaneous 4-of-4 departures in 43 days requires specific catalysts I haven't verified.

Price vs. prediction

How the market moved after the agent's call. Solid blue line is the actual market price; dashed line is the agent's static forecast at $t{=}0$.

$n = 58$ follow-ups

1. Planner Opus · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: web_search article_search kalshi_data kalshi_orderbook

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Will Tony Gonzales leave the U.S. House of Representatives before June 1, 2026? (w=0.25)
Will Eric Swalwell leave the U.S. House of Representatives before June 1, 2026? (w=0.25)
Will Cory Mills leave the U.S. House of Representatives before June 1, 2026? (w=0.25)
Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the U.S. House of Representatives before June 1, 2026? (w=0.25)

Planner reasoning

This question resolves YES only if ALL FOUR named representatives have departed the House before June 1, 2026 — a logical AND/minimum combination. As of today (April 19, 2026), there are only 43 days remaining. The key analytical task is determining the departure status of each of the four members: 1. **Tony Gonzales** – A Republican from Texas who faced controversy and a censure vote; he announced a run for Texas governor. If he resigned from the House to focus on the gubernatorial race, his departure date would matter. 2. **Eric Swalwell** – A Democrat from California. He was notably expelled from the Gang of Eight intelligence briefings; any departure would be voluntary resignation. 3. **Cory Mills** – A Republican from Florida who has been involved in overseas hostage rescue activities. 4. **Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick** – A Democrat from Florida. **Temporal analysis**: With only 43 days remaining, any member who hasn't already officially left (or announced an imminent departure) is very unlikely to do so by June 1. The question requires ALL FOUR to leave. Even if 3 of 4 have departed, the question resolves NO. The joint probability is the product (or minimum) of each individual probability — meaning if any one member has a low probability of departure, the whole question collapses. I need to check current departure status of all four to determine how many have already left and whether the remaining ones have announced departures.

2. Research Parallel tool calls · legacy v2

Tool	Status	Time	Items
web_search	OK	68.0s	-
article_search	OK	0.1s	-
kalshi_data	OK	1.8s	-
kalshi_orderbook	OK	0.1s	-

3. Evidence Synthesis Sonnet · 10 items · legacy v2

#	Strength	Credibility	Direction	Source	Claim	Priced In
1	STRONG	92	↑ UP	web_search	Tony Gonzales resigned from the House effective April 15, 2026, amid sexual misconduct allegations involving a staffer who died by suicide and threats of expulsion.	Yes
2	STRONG	90	↑ UP	web_search	Gonzales' resignation was read into the House record after sponsors of expulsion resolutions gave him a 2 p.m. ET deadline; his Texas 23rd district seat is now vacant.	Yes
3	STRONG	85	↑ UP	web_search	Eric Swalwell faced sexual misconduct allegations reported on April 10, 2026 by SF Chronicle and CNN, including claims of rape from multiple women, and was also threatened with expulsion if he did not resign by 2 p.m. ET alongside Gonzales.	Yes
4	MODERATE	72	↑ UP	web_search	The web search summary implies Swalwell was also resigning (past tense: 'served... from 2013 until 2026' and 'candidate for Governor of California'), suggesting his departure occurred in April 2026, though the full text was truncated.	Yes
5	STRONG	88	↑ UP	web_search	Expulsion resolution sponsors gave Swalwell and Gonzales a joint deadline, and held their motions under assurances that each member was getting their resignation in order.	Yes
6	WEAK	40	↓ DOWN	web_search	No evidence was found in the research data indicating that Cory Mills has resigned, announced resignation, or been threatened with expulsion from the House.	No
7	WEAK	40	↓ DOWN	web_search	No evidence was found in the research data indicating that Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick has resigned, announced resignation, or been threatened with expulsion from the House.	No
8	MODERATE	65	↑ UP	kalshi_data	The Kalshi combo market (all four departing before June 1) is priced at 35%, having risen +15% over 7 days with high average volume (3,500 contracts/day), suggesting market participants believe it is likely but not certain that all four will depart.	Yes
9	MODERATE	60	NEUTRAL	kalshi_data	The combo market's 35% price and recent +15% rise may reflect confirmed departures of Gonzales and Swalwell, while residual uncertainty about Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick keeps it well below 100%.	Yes
10	WEAK	35	NEUTRAL	kalshi_orderbook	The orderbook shows extreme spread (yes_bid=$0.01, no_bid=$0.01, spread=$0.98) with high depth of 12,223 contracts, suggesting the market may be in an unusual liquidity state or the orderbook snapshot is atypical.	Yes

Information Gaps

No direct evidence found on whether Eric Swalwell formally submitted a resignation and confirmed effective departure date — the search text was truncated before completing his entry.
No evidence at all on Cory Mills' current status — whether he has resigned, announced plans to resign, or faces any pressure to leave the House.
No evidence at all on Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's current status — whether she has resigned, announced plans to resign, or faces any pressure to leave the House.
The exact effective departure date for Swalwell is not confirmed in the available data.
No information on whether Cory Mills or Cherfilus-McCormick are under any ethics investigation or facing expulsion pressure.
No article search results returned (0 articles found), limiting corroboration of the web search findings.

Key Uncertainties

Whether Eric Swalwell's resignation was formally submitted and what the confirmed effective departure date was — the evidence strongly implies it but is truncated.
Whether Cory Mills has any pending reason to resign or be expelled before June 1, 2026 — no evidence found either way.
Whether Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick has any pending reason to resign or be expelled before June 1, 2026 — no evidence found either way.
The Kalshi combo market at 35% implies market participants may have information about Mills and/or Cherfilus-McCormick that is not reflected in the research data.
Whether the EFFECTIVELEAVE contract definition aligns with the resignation dates found (e.g., whether Gonzales' April 15 effective date counts under that specific contract metric).

Market Context

Price: 0.35 · 7d: +0.15 · 30d: +0.15
Volume: HIGH — 3,500 contracts/day average is substantial for a political prediction market · Depth: HIGH — 12,223 depth reported, though the extreme spread ($0.01 bid on both sides) is anomalous and may indicate a stale snapshot
Reliability: MEDIUM-HIGH — high volume and recent price action suggest active trading around confirmed news of Gonzales/Swalwell departures, but the 35% price implies significant uncertainty remains about the other two members

4. Independent Forecaster Opus · No market price · legacy v2 Did NOT see market price

Independent estimate: 1% (69% confidence)

base rate

78% conf

evidence driven

75% conf

contrarian

55% conf

Spread

1pp

Low disagreement

sq1: Will Tony Gonzales leave the U.S. House of Representatives before June 1, 2026?

97%

Strong evidence indicates Gonzales resigned effective April 15, 2026, with his resignation read into the House record. Base rate for 'already happened' events approaches certainty. Minor uncertainty remains about EFFECTIVELEAVE contract definition alignment, but the departure appears confirmed. Estimate: 97%.

sq2: Will Eric Swalwell leave the U.S. House of Representatives before June 1, 2026?

85%

Strong evidence of expulsion pressure and implied resignation (past-tense framing 'served until 2026'), but the actual resignation submission and effective date are not fully confirmed in truncated search results. Given the 2 p.m. ET deadline and expulsion sponsors holding motions on assurance of resignation, high probability but with ~15% uncertainty about confirmation. Estimate: 85%.

sq3: Will Cory Mills leave the U.S. House of Representatives before June 1, 2026?

Base rate for a sitting Representative leaving in a 43-day window is very low (~1-2% per year = ~0.2% per 43 days for an average member). No evidence of resignation, announced departure, or expulsion pressure. Mills has faced some controversy but nothing indicating imminent departure. Slight upward adjustment for being named in this market (suggesting some market-relevant information). Estimate: 5%.

sq4: Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the U.S. House of Representatives before June 1, 2026?

Same base rate analysis as Mills: very low baseline for departure in 43 days. No evidence of resignation or pressure to leave. Slight upward adjustment for inclusion in this specific market (suggests some rumor or basis for the question). Estimate: 5%.

Show full reasoning trace

base rate: Individual House member departure rate is roughly 1-3% per year outside of elections. For a 43-day window, baseline is ~0.3% per member unless specific pressure exists. For all four to depart simultaneously is extraordinarily rare absent specific catalysts.

evidence updates: Gonzales and Swalwell have strong evidence of actual/imminent departure (high individual probabilities). Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick have no evidence of departure — base rate dominates. The product collapses the joint probability.

combination method: Conjunction/minimum: all four must leave. Even with two near-certain departures, the two unconstrained members with ~5% probability each drive the joint to ~0.4%.

final: Despite two likely departures, the absence of any departure signal for Mills or Cherfilus-McCormick makes the 4-of-4 conjunction very unlikely. Final estimate: 0.4%.

ensemble: {'ensemble_count': 3, 'perspectives': {'base_rate': {'p_yes': 0.01, 'confidence': 0.78}, 'evidence_driven': {'p_yes': 0.02, 'confidence': 0.75}, 'contrarian': {'p_yes': 0.012, 'confidence': 0.55}}, 'spread': 0.01, 'individual_p_yes': {'base_rate': 0.01, 'evidence_driven': 0.02, 'contrarian': 0.012}}

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet · legacy v2 Market price revealed

Missing Info Asymmetric Evidence Reasoning Flaw

Challenges

The forecaster treats Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick as independent baseline cases (~5% each) but doesn't seriously engage with WHY they are named in this specific market. Kalshi/Polymarket EFFECTIVELEAVE contracts are typically created for members with active ethics investigations, announced plans, or credible resignation rumors — not randomly. The 'slight upward adjustment' from ~0.3% base rate to 5% may be insufficient given the strong selection effect of being named.
The market at 35% (up +15% recently) is a STRONG signal that informed traders believe the conjunction probability is much higher than 1.4%. If Gonzales and Swalwell are ~97% and ~85% respectively (joint ~82%), then the market implies Mills AND Cherfilus-McCormick have a joint probability of ~43%, or roughly ~65% each. This is a massive divergence that the forecaster dismisses with a generic base rate analysis despite admitting zero research coverage on these two members.
Information gaps are severe: 'No articles found' and 'no evidence at all' for Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick. With 43 days to resolution and a liquid market pricing 35%, the correct response to missing information is widened uncertainty toward the market prior, not confident application of a generic base rate.
The conjunction math is correct but the inputs for sq3 and sq4 are likely underestimated. Even moving them to 20-30% each (reflecting market-implied information) would materially change the answer.
The forecaster notes the orderbook spread is anomalous ($0.01/$0.01) but doesn't resolve whether the 35% last-trade price reflects current consensus. If it does, this is a high-volume, actively-traded market with informed participants.

Suggested adjustment: +10pp

The sub-forecasts for Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick rely on generic base rates despite near-total evidence absence AND a selection effect (they were specifically named in this contract). A liquid market at 35% with +15% recent move strongly implies informed traders know something about these two members. The forecaster should widen uncertainty on sq3/sq4 to reflect the information gap rather than confidently anchoring to base rates. Moving sq3 and sq4 to ~25% each would yield a joint ~5%, which better reflects the evidence state. This is a reasoning flaw (overconfidence in base rates when information is missing and selection effects exist), not market conformity.

Market comparison: Forecaster: 1.4%, Market: 35%. The 33.6 percentage point divergence is very large for a high-volume market. While the forecaster has correctly identified two likely departures, the dismissal of Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick at 5% each is not well-supported given (a) the selection effect of being named in the contract, (b) complete absence of research coverage rather than confirmed absence of catalysts, and (c) a liquid market signaling much higher probability. The divergence is partly justified (conjunction math is unforgiving) but the magnitude suggests the forecaster is too confident on sq3/sq4.

6. Aggregator Opus · final calibrated forecast

8% (45% confidence)

7. Entry Decision Opus Trader

Side

Position Size

$1400

Contracts

2090

Trader Confidence

45%

Trade Rationale

Large 25% edge on the NO side — market prices 33% for a 4-of-4 conjunction that my forecaster estimates at 8%. The conjunction math is genuinely unforgiving: even being generous with Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick at 20-25% each, you still can't get near 33%. Forecaster confidence of 0.45 is moderate (reflecting uncertainty on the two less-covered reps), and the Devil's Advocate flagged real concerns about selection effects (being named in the contract is signal), which the forecaster already partially incorporated by widening to 8%. The stale/thin orderbook suggests the 33% price may not reflect informed conviction.

Allocation Logic

Sizing above baseline ($1400) because the 25% edge is very large and conjunction math gives structural confidence, but not maxing out due to moderate forecaster confidence (0.45), legitimate DA flags about information gaps on Mills/Cherfilus-McCormick, and the possibility the market knows something I don't about those two.

Entry price: $0.67

Current: $0.95

Status: WON

P&L: $585.07