base rate:
Base rate for a politician who has explicitly ruled out a race to then reverse and enter that race is very low — under 5%. Combined with the near-closed filing window for the only relevant race in the resolution period, base rate is ~3-5%.
evidence updates:
Harris's explicit July 2025 ruling-out is the dominant evidence, pushing probability to floor levels. Structural factors (filing deadline, filled field, donor commitments elsewhere) reinforce this. No countervailing evidence of reversal as of April 2026.
combination method:
Rather than mechanical weighted average (which overweights sub-questions that don't actually map to the resolution mechanism), I focused on the actual resolution path: she'd need to reverse course and file for the 2026 race in the next few weeks, or somehow announce for 2030 before Nov 2027 (implausibly early).
final:
Final probability ~4%, reflecting the overwhelming evidence she's not running for the 2026 race, the essentially closed filing window, and the implausibility of a pre-Nov-2027 announcement for any later race. Confidence is high (0.85) given multiple strong direct statements from Harris herself.
ensemble:
{'ensemble_count': 3, 'perspectives': {'base_rate': {'p_yes': 0.04, 'confidence': 0.85}, 'evidence_driven': {'p_yes': 0.04, 'confidence': 0.88}, 'contrarian': {'p_yes': 0.04, 'confidence': 0.85}}, 'spread': 0.0, 'individual_p_yes': {'base_rate': 0.04, 'evidence_driven': 0.04, 'contrarian': 0.04}}