base rate:
Zero explicitly white-nationalist figures have won the US presidency in 235+ years. Zero deplatformed commentators have won. Closest analogs (Duke, Buchanan, LaRouche) never won nomination. Base rate for any specific named fringe figure reaching presidency within 18 years is well under 1%.
evidence updates:
Eligibility confirmed (neutral, already priced). Break with Trump/GOP in 2026 pushes DOWN ~1-2% — loses most plausible vehicle. Explicit antisemitism/Holocaust denial pushes DOWN — these are near-disqualifying for general electorates. No evidence of organizational/electoral progress pushes DOWN. Long 18-year horizon pushes UP marginally (unknown unknowns, potential realignments).
combination method:
Event requires conjunction: eligible AND viable AND wins. Multiplicative: 0.97 * 0.03 * 0.15 ≈ 0.4%. Adjusted up slightly to 1% for model uncertainty and tail scenarios.
final:
Final estimate 1%. Fuentes is eligible but faces near-insurmountable barriers: deeply unpopular explicit views, deplatforming, no organizational infrastructure, current alienation from both parties. Even with three eligible cycles and 18 years of possible political change, the path requires a cascade of unlikely events.
ensemble:
{'ensemble_count': 3, 'perspectives': {'base_rate': {'p_yes': 0.01, 'confidence': 0.82}, 'evidence_driven': {'p_yes': 0.01, 'confidence': 0.85}, 'contrarian': {'p_yes': 0.012, 'confidence': 0.82}}, 'spread': 0.002, 'individual_p_yes': {'base_rate': 0.01, 'evidence_driven': 0.01, 'contrarian': 0.012}}