Tools chosen: article_search web_search kalshi_data kalshi_orderbook wikipedia_lookup

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This question requires assessing two nested probabilities: (1) whether López Aliaga finishes in the top 2 of the first round at all, and (2) given a top-2 finish, whether he specifically comes 2nd rather than 1st. The Peruvian election is scheduled for April 2026 with results expected by late April or May 2026 (well within the resolution window of March 2027). Key analytical steps: First, examine current polling — Peruvian polls 6-12 months before elections can be volatile but instructive; look at who leads (likely Keiko Fujimori, Cesar Acuña, or another candidate) and whether López Aliaga is consistently in 2nd or 3rd. Second, assess the fragmented field: Peru typically has 15-20 candidates in the first round, and the top-2 cutoff historically captures candidates with 20-30% each in a fragmented field. Third, consider that López Aliaga ran in 2021 and finished 3rd (approximately 12.8%), narrowly missing the runoff. This is a critical reference class — he has demonstrated competitiveness but not guaranteed top-2 status. Fourth, evaluate whether his Renovación Popular party and right-wing populist brand have grown or contracted since 2021. The specific 2nd-place condition (rather than just top-2) adds additional precision: if he qualifies for runoff, the probability he comes 2nd vs 1st depends on whether a single candidate dominates polling above him. Temporal note: The election likely occurs in April 2026, with certified results by May-June 2026, leaving ample time for resolution before the March 2027 deadline. Polling in the months ahead will be the primary signal to track.

• No actual certified first-round results are available — the election was April 12-13, 2026 and results have not been confirmed in the research data
• Datum Internacional full poll results (April 1-4) were referenced but not explicitly reported with rankings for López Aliaga
• No information on the final week trend (April 5-12) as Peruvian law prohibits poll publication the week before the election
• No data on López Aliaga's vote share trajectory over multiple months — only the most recent pre-election polls are available
• No data on regional breakdowns that could indicate where López Aliaga is gaining or losing ground
• Absence of actual election returns or exit polls to definitively resolve the question

• Whether CPI's López Aliaga-leading scenario or Ipsos's Fujimori-dominant scenario is more predictive of actual results
• Carlos Álvarez's surge in Ipsos polls (appearing as 2nd in their April 1-2 simulacro) could push López Aliaga out of the top 2 entirely
• High indecision (16.8%) and blank/null votes create potential for last-minute vote shifts
• Whether the election actually occurred on April 12-13 as scheduled and whether certified results are yet available
• The extreme fragmentation (35 candidates) means small shifts in vote shares can dramatically change rankings near the top-2 cutoff
• Whether López Aliaga's declining trend in Ipsos polls continued through election day

Independent estimate: 29% (35% confidence)

Time Awareness Issue Reasoning Flaw Missing Info Asymmetric Evidence

Challenges

Market comparison: Forecaster: 28.7%, Market: 42.0%. The 13.3% divergence is likely NOT due to the market being wrong — it's almost certainly because the market is incorporating actual election results from April 12-13 while the forecaster is limited to pre-election polls. This is one of the rare cases where the market signal should be heavily weighted because it likely reflects hard data (actual vote counts) that the forecaster explicitly acknowledges not having access to. However, since we cannot confirm the actual results, a full adjustment to 42% is not warranted — partial adjustment reflecting the high probability that results exist and the market is pricing them in is appropriate.

41% (55% confidence)

The election occurred on April 12-13, 2026 — two to three days before this forecast date. Peru's ONPE releases quick-count results within hours of polls closing, meaning actual results are almost certainly publicly available by April 15. The Devil's Advocate critique correctly identifies (Challenge 1-3) that my independent forecast's reliance on pre-election polls is fundamentally inappropriate for a post-election scenario — I ACCEPT all three challenges. The market's sharp +15% jump in the 7 days spanning election day, in a high-liquidity market (avg 4296 daily contracts, depth 56K), is strong circumstantial evidence that it is incorporating actual vote tallies. The 42% market price suggests López Aliaga likely finished 2nd but perhaps with some residual uncertainty around certified results vs. preliminary counts, or possibly that he finished close to but not quite 2nd. I adjust heavily toward the market price, landing at 41%, as the market almost certainly has access to hard data I cannot observe directly.