base rate:
Only 1 Cabinet impeachment in 237 years of US history (Belknap, 1876). That gives a base rate of roughly 0.09% per 80-day window. No Cabinet member has ever been impeached by a House controlled by the same party as the administration.
evidence updates:
Multiple articles of impeachment have been introduced by minority Democrats against Hegseth and previously Noem (+2-3% from base rate due to elevated activity). However, Republicans control the House and have consistently blocked all impeachment efforts (-1%). Democrats themselves are divided on impeachment strategy, with 128 voting against even Trump impeachment efforts (-1%). No Republican has expressed any support for Cabinet impeachment (-1%). Democratic leadership is explicitly cautious about impeachment (-0.5%). The Iran situation creates some upward pressure but no evidence of bipartisan momentum (+0.5%).
combination method:
While the weighted average formula gives ~6.4%, this overstates the probability because sq1 (activity exists) gets 40% weight but activity alone doesn't resolve the question YES. The actual resolution requires House passage, which is almost entirely determined by sq2 (Republican willingness). I weight the final estimate much more toward sq2's 0.5% estimate, adjusted upward slightly for tail risk scenarios (sudden catastrophic scandal forcing bipartisan action).
final:
The probability of any Cabinet member being impeached before July 1, 2026 is approximately 2%. The key bottleneck is that Republicans control the House and would need to vote to impeach their own administration's appointees. While Democratic minority members have introduced articles, they lack the votes to pass them. Historical precedent (1 event in 237 years, under different conditions) supports an extremely low probability. The 80-day window further constrains the possibility.
ensemble:
{'ensemble_count': 3, 'perspectives': {'base_rate': {'p_yes': 0.02, 'confidence': 0.95}, 'evidence_driven': {'p_yes': 0.02, 'confidence': 0.92}, 'contrarian': {'p_yes': 0.015, 'confidence': 0.92}}, 'spread': 0.005, 'individual_p_yes': {'base_rate': 0.02, 'evidence_driven': 0.02, 'contrarian': 0.015}}