Will average **gas prices** be above $4.6000? — Above 4.6000

- [2026-10-18] AAA's NJ regular average is $4.2449. That is about 36 cents below the $4.60 strike. The national average that day was $4.2988. (Fetched AAA page.) https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=NJ - [2026-10-17] The national average was $4.3085, down about 6 cents on the week and about 16 cents on the month ($4.4687 on 9/18). NJ was $4.2525 the same day. https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/ - [2026-10-13] AAA Northeast put NJ at $4.30, against $4.29 a week earlier and $4.41 a month earlier. It describes prices as record highs for autumn, driven by the Middle East conflict and high oil prices. https://magazine.northeast.aaa.com/daily/newsroom/northeast-pump-prices-inch-down-but-remain-at-record-highs-for-autumn/ - [2026-10-09] NJ regular was $4.26, down 6 cents on the week. The most expensive county was Cape May at $4.47. https://www.roi-nj.com/2026/10/09/industry/energy-utilities/aaa-says-gasoline-prices-nationwide-staying-at-record-highs-for-autumn-price-down-6-cents-in-n-j/ - [2026-10-01] NJ was $4.33 and the national average was $4.41. September 2026 set a record monthly national average of $4.33. https://www.roi-nj.com/2026/10/01/industry/energy-utilities/aaa-reports-national-average-gasoline-price-eased-after-record-setting-september-price-in-n-j-slid-6-cents/ - [2026-09-24] The national average hit $4.48, which AAA called the highest ever for that time of year. NJ peaked around $4.4–4.5 in late September (a Northeast AAA chart shows $4.47–4.48 values). I found no NJ reading at or above $4.60 this cycle. https://gasprices.aaa.com/news/ - [2026-10-15] AAA says the national average has stayed above $4 since late July. It says crude is "once again nearing $100 per barrel". It expects fall to bring lower prices, but oil volatility has produced seasonal record highs. (Fetched.) https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/10/gas-prices-not-budging-much-as-crude-oil-remains-high/ - [2026-10-17] Crude jumped sharply. Brent closed at about $109.9, its highest since May 19, and WTI at about $101.4. WTI was up about 10% on the week. Drivers cited are Middle East supply risk, uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. This has not yet reached pump prices. https://srpske.rs/en/news/ekonomija/2026/10/17/brent-oil-hits-110-dollars-highest-since-may - [2026-10-17] Seeking Alpha confirms Brent hit $110 for the first time since May, and WTI topped $100. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4654025-brent-crude-hits-110-for-first-time-since-may-us-wti-tops-100 - [2026-10-16] Oil oscillated between the $80s and $100+ in the past two weeks. On 9/30 WTI settled at $90.42. The 10/8 AAA release mentions a dip into the $80s. Hurricane risk to Gulf production was flagged on 10/8. EIA gasoline stocks rose to 208.3M barrels and demand fell to 8.40M b/d in the week reported 10/15. https://wrnjradio.com/national-gas-prices-remain-above-4-a-gallon-as-crude-oil-prices-stay-high-aaa-says/ - [2026-09-22] Diesel set a record of $6.5276 on 9/22/26. Regular's all-time national record remains $5.0165 (6/14/22). https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=US - [2026-09-10] The national average jumped 13 cents in a week to $4.27 when crude returned to the $100 range because of Strait of Hormuz volatility. Past rallies passed through to pumps within about 1–3 weeks. https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-jumps-13-cents-in-one-week/ BOTTOM LINE: NJ is at $4.24, about 36 cents below the strike. Pump prices have eased for about a month even though crude has just spiked to roughly $100–110, so Brent at $110 gives upside pressure on pump prices. A rise of more than 36 cents by 12/31 would exceed NJ's 2026 autumn peak, which I found at roughly $4.4–4.5. NOT FOUND: AAA's NJ all-time and 2026 peak daily values (I only found weekly readings and chart figures). I also found no scheduled events before 12/31, such as OPEC meetings, tax changes or Hormuz developments. I did not search for forward or futures curves for gasoline.

- [2026-10-18] AAA's New Jersey regular average is $4.2449, and the national average is $4.2988. The strike of $4.60 is about 35 cents (8%) above the NJ price. The market resolves on the AAA NJ value on Dec 31, 2026. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ - [2026-10-18] The AAA national average was $4.4687 a month ago and $4.3585 a week ago, so the trend is falling. The record national regular price is $5.0165 (2022-06-14). https://gasprices.aaa.com/ - [2026-10-01] NJ was $4.33 on Oct 1, up 17 cents over the prior month and $1.26 year on year. September's national monthly average of $4.33 was a record for September. AAA attributes the high prices to the unsettled Iran crisis. https://www.roi-nj.com/2026/10/01/industry/energy-utilities/aaa-reports-national-average-gasoline-price-eased-after-record-setting-september-price-in-n-j-slid-6-cents/ - [2026-10-06] EIA's October STEO (forecast completed Oct 1) projects Brent at $105/b in 4Q26, up $14 from the prior month's forecast. It assumes Middle East flows stay constrained through 4Q26. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ - [2026-10-06] The same STEO puts the September US gasoline average at $4.35. It expects 2027 gasoline to average just under $3.60. It does not account for the G7 announcement of Oct 2. East Coast distillate inventories are 32% below the five-year average. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ - [2026-10-07] The September STEO had 2026 gasoline averaging $3.84 and 2027 averaging $3.35. The 2026 figure was revised up 5.5% from July. The revisions show how unstable the forecast has been. https://truedrivingcost.com/articles/gas-price-forecast-2026-2027 - [2026-07-15] Reference-class evidence: the 2026 national peak so far was $4.56 on May 21, below $4.60. In July, Kalshi traders put under 5% on a return above $4.50. The national price later exceeded that level in September, so the market underestimated the upside. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/kalshi-traders-see-gas-prices-crossing-4-by-end-of-july-.html - [2026-09-14] Sibling Kalshi market: a national "new 2026 high" rung (above $4.60) traded at 74–76¢ on Sep 14. That was just before prices peaked around $4.4–4.5 and then eased, so it did not resolve YES. https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/gas-prices-2026-model-verdict - [2026-10-14] NJ was $4.29, about 43% above the $3.01 of a year earlier. NJ has run roughly 5–10 cents below the national average. A national price of about $4.70 would probably be needed for NJ to clear $4.60. https://nj1015.com/nj-gas-prices-current-latest/ - [2026-08-19] NJ was about $3.97 in mid-August, so the state has moved about 30 cents in two months in both directions. That implies a 35-cent rise over 10 weeks is plausible but needs a fresh shock. https://fuelwide.com/gas-prices/usa/new-jersey - [2022-01-17] Historical reference: NJ regular was $3.37 in January 2022. The NJ all-time high was in 2022, with a national peak of $5.02 in June 2022. Gas prices historically fall in Q4 and winter because of seasonal demand and the switch to winter-grade fuel. https://press.northeast.aaa.com/2022/01/17/aaa-new-jersey-average-gas-price-down-a-penny BOTTOM LINE: From the outside view, NJ is about 35 cents below the strike with a falling trend and the usual seasonal drift down into December. Reaching it would take an escalation of the Iran/Hormuz crisis, since NJ has not been near $4.60 this year (national peak $4.56). Forecast and market evidence shows large upward surprises are possible in this regime. NOT FOUND: The current price and odds for this exact Kalshi contract (not searched, per instructions). A direct AAA NJ 2026 peak figure. An NJ-specific professional forecast for Dec 31. A fetched AAA NJ history page (it returned 403).

YES means: AAA's New Jersey regular-gas average is strictly above $4.6000 on Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-10-16] RBOB Nov futures settled at $3.2354 on Oct 16. That is below the $3.59 high of the past 90 trading days (Sept 23), so wholesale gasoline has not followed crude up. NJ pump prices of about $4.25 therefore carry no extra wholesale pressure yet. The YES case needs gasoline futures to catch up with crude. https://fueldataportal.com/data/rbob-gasoline-price (Oct 3 snapshot) and https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/hormuz-mines-russian-refinery-fires-and-a-25-gas-gap-what-moved-your-fuel-bill-this-week - [2026-10-18] Brent December settled at $109.86 on Oct 16 and WTI Nov at $101.41. The Brent curve stays above $100 through the March 2027 contract ($101.53), so the market is pricing sustained high crude rather than a brief spike. https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/how-long-will-100-oil-last-hormuz-lng-and-coal-are-writing-your-winter-fuel-bill/ - [2026-10-18] Physical Dated Brent was $126.55 on Oct 14, and the IEA said it was trading near $134 when it wrote its October report. Physical crude is far above the futures price. Spot Brent peaked at $138.21 on Apr 7. The national gasoline peak that followed was only $4.56 (May 21, per colleagues), so gasoline has run well below the crude shock. https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/how-long-will-100-oil-last-hormuz-lng-and-coal-are-writing-your-winter-fuel-bill/ - [2026-10-17] Goldman's published scenarios put Brent above $120 in Q4 if Hormuz attacks persist, and about $125 in December in a severe case. That is the escalation path to YES. JPMorgan has dropped any single forecast, saying the war's path cannot be reliably modelled. https://discoveryalert.com/news/brent-oil-price-110-hormuz-saudi-russia-october-2026/ - [2026-10-17] Three shocks hit at once: Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping, Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure including the Yanbu terminal (the East-West pipeline bypass), and a collapsed Russia-Ukraine energy truce with Ukraine promising renewed strikes on Russian refineries. An Aramco building in Dhahran was hit on Oct 13. The bypass route that has been limiting crude losses is now being targeted. https://discoveryalert.com/news/brent-oil-price-110-hormuz-saudi-russia-october-2026/ - [2026-10-18] Hormuz transits are about 70% below pre-war levels, with 12 attacks last week. The IEA puts effective OPEC+ spare capacity at 0.27 mb/d. World inventories were 509M barrels below pre-war levels at the end of September. The US SPR is at 283M barrels, and EIA expects about 243M by December. The buffers that capped the spring rally are thinner. https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/how-long-will-100-oil-last-hormuz-lng-and-coal-are-writing-your-winter-fuel-bill/ - [2026-10-17] Diesel is about $6.33 nationally, 73% above a year ago. S&P Global puts the diesel differential near $38/bbl. The Dallas Fed warns high crack spreads could outlast a Hormuz normalisation. Refining margins are tight, and an Ukrainian refinery campaign could lift gasoline cracks. https://discoveryalert.com/analysis/oil-price-forecast-2027-brent-diesel-october-2026/ - [2026-10-09] NJ's county-level highs show the headroom. Cape May was $4.52 on Oct 1 when the state average was $4.33. The state average has been within about 20 cents of $4.50 in the past six weeks. https://www.roi-nj.com/2026/10/01/industry/energy-utilities/aaa-reports-national-average-gasoline-price-eased-after-record-setting-september-price-in-n-j-slid-6-cents/ - [2026-09-10] NJ went from about $4.16 on Sept 1 to $4.36 on Sept 10 (+20 cents in 9 days) on a crude rebound. A similar jump of 15–25 cents, applied twice with sustained $110–125 crude and a catch-up in cracks, would take NJ to the strike. https://newjersey.news12.com/2026/09/10/gas-prices-jump-again-as-new-jersey-drivers-see-big-differences-between-stations/2izUG2DePDrMgvaPqSbBSq - [2026-10-18] Forecasters have underestimated prices all year. GasBuddy's January call was $2.83 for December 2026. EIA's March STEO had Q4 Brent at $70, and the October STEO has $105. Seasonal-decline assumptions have repeatedly failed. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gasbuddy-reveals-2026-usa-gasoline-183638126.html - [2022-05-13] Reference for pass-through: NJ set a record $4.502 on May 13, 2022, when the national average was $4.432. NJ then reached higher levels as the national average rose to $5.02 in June 2022. NJ can exceed the national average when the national average is high. https://www.pressreader.com/usa/new-york-post/20220514/281535114587965 BOTTOM LINE: The most likely YES path is a Hormuz or Saudi-infrastructure escalation that takes Brent to $120–125 by November–December and widens gasoline cracks, so national regular reaches about $4.70 or more by Dec 31. Crude is rising, physical Brent is far above futures, and inventory buffers are thin. But gasoline futures at $3.24 have not confirmed the move, and NJ needs about 36 cents more. NOT FOUND: A current NJ-specific forecast for Dec 31. AAA's NJ 2026 daily peak. A forward RBOB curve for Dec 2026 as of Oct 16 (the August 28 snapshot showed Dec at about $2.68, which is stale).

YES means: AAA's New Jersey regular-gasoline average is strictly above $4.6000 on Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-10-16] RBOB, the wholesale base for pump prices, is not pricing a pump spike. The front month closed at $3.2354/gal on Oct 16. It ranged $3.18–$3.30 from Oct 5 to Oct 16. It was $3.4026 on Oct 1 and $3.3124 on Oct 2, so it was lower than at the start of the month. The Oct 16 crude rally (Brent $109.86, WTI $101.41) has not lifted gasoline futures. Investing.com's 30-day table shows a range of about $3.05–$3.52. The rise in pump prices to $4.60 would need RBOB well above that range. https://www.investing.com/commodities/gasoline-rbob-historical-data - [2026-10-16] Money.com (published Oct 16) reports that EIA's October STEO expects the national average to fall below $4 in December. It says inventory rebuilding after refinery maintenance and winter demand will help. Tom Kloza of Gulf Oil estimates about $4.11 nationally at the end of December. NJ runs 5–10 cents below the national average, so that implies roughly $4.0–4.1 in NJ. Kloza says seasonal lows typically come between mid-December and the end of January. https://money.com/will-gas-prices-go-down-before-end-of-2026/ - [2026-10-16] The price on Dec 31 falls in the seasonal trough. Kloza says lows usually arrive mid-December to late January. Winter-grade fuel is cheaper to make. The RBOB futures curve steps down at the September-to-October boundary because of the change in fuel specification (OilPriceAPI). This works against a year-end spike. https://www.oilpriceapi.com/live/gasoline-rbob-price - [2026-10-16] Money.com says the 2026 national peak was $4.56 in May. That peak came when Brent had reached $119 in March (Invezz). Brent is now about $110, with Brent and WTI both below the March high. The national average has not reached $4.60 under comparable or higher crude. NJ typically sits below the national average, so an NJ reading above $4.60 would exceed anything seen this year. https://invezz.com/news/2026/10/18/crude-oil-forecast-why-brent-could-reach-120-as-irgc-shipping-attacks-persist/ - [2026-10-18] A de-escalation path exists. Iran's foreign minister said a proposal to restore Hormuz shipping within seven days remains on the table, though the military conditions it on US withdrawal. Goldman's scenario is Brent near $80 if exports normalise, against $120 if attacks on shipping intensify. The gap between those scenarios is wide, and a diplomatic outcome would push NJ pump prices well below $4.60. https://financefeeds.com/oil-price-near-110-as-iran-demands-us-withdrawal-but-keeps-hormuz-proposal-open/ - [2026-10-08] Escalation has repeatedly failed to push NJ above $4.5. Brent rose above $105 on Oct 8 on Iranian tanker attacks and a Gulf storm threat. Pump prices still fell afterwards, and the AAA NJ reading was $4.2449 on Oct 18. Pump prices have not followed crude rallies this autumn. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Jumps-2-as-Iran-Steps-Up-Attacks-on-Hormuz-Tankers.html - [2026-10-18] The AAA NJ page shows regular at $4.2449 against $4.4314 a month ago and $4.3026 a week ago. Premium and diesel readings do not matter for resolution. Metro averages (Philadelphia NJ $4.18, Vineland $4.24) are also well under the strike. The Philadelphia-area NJ average is about 6 cents below the state average, so no region is near the threshold. https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=NJ - [2026-10-18] Resolution technicalities favour NO. The rule is a single-day reading (Dec 31) that must be strictly above $4.6000. A brief spike earlier in December would not count. The question does not resolve on a peak or on a monthly average. NJ would need a rise of more than 36 cents sustained into the last day of the year, which falls in the lowest-demand stretch. https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=NJ - [2026-10-16] Forecasts on record are bearish for year-end. EIA says its outlook carries "above-average uncertainty" and that tight gasoline inventories could limit declines. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan declined to give a year-end figure, saying that any escalation or de-escalation could move prices either way. I found no forecaster calling for a national price at or above $4.60 by year-end. Kloza's own year-end call is about $4.11. https://money.com/will-gas-prices-go-down-before-end-of-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: NJ is about 36 cents below the strike. RBOB near $3.24 and flat despite the crude spike, the winter-grade switch, and year-end seasonal lows (the EIA and Kloza calls above) all point to a Dec 31 NJ price around $4.0–4.2. NO needs only the status quo or a diplomatic opening. YES needs a new escalation that lifts prices above this year's peak and holds through the last day of the year. NOT FOUND: NJ-specific AAA peak or all-time daily values for 2026. A year-end NJ forecast. A gasoline futures curve for Dec 2026 and Jan 2027 contracts (only the front-month series). Any scheduled catalyst before Dec 31 (OPEC meeting, tax change, Hormuz deadline).