Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

- [2026-10-18] As of today, no source shows Moraes has resigned, retired or been removed. Wikipedia still lists him as an incumbent Justice, in office since 2017. Wikipedia and the other pages I read are secondary sources. I found no official STF or government notice on his status. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes - [2026-10-17] Senator-elect Marcel van Hattem (Novo-RS) said Moraes's impeachment "will happen" whoever wins the presidency. He said a majority is already formed and that work starts on 1 Feb 2027. Removal needs 54 of 81 senators. Gazeta do Povo counted 30 of the 54 senators elected in 2026 as backing impeachment of STF justices. O Antagonista counted 32 of 54, plus 17 sitting senators, for 49 in total, five short of 54. The new Senate is seated in Feb 2027, after this market closes. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2026/van-hattem-diz-que-impeachment-de-moraes-independe-do-resultado-das-eleicoes/ - [2026-10-17] Van Hattem also said the election of the Senate's leadership (mesa diretora) at the start of the next legislature will decide whether the cases move forward. Only the Senate president can advance an impeachment request. https://oantagonista.com.br/brasil/impeachment-de-moraes-vai-acontecer-independentemente-de-quem-se-eleja/ - [2026-10-15] The Rio Times reports the Senate has not moved on any request. There has been no admissibility ruling, committee referral or vote. Senate president Alcolumbre has kept the requests parked. About 55 to 66 requests are pending against Moraes, and 109 against the ten justices. The newest was filed 5 Sep 2026 by Sen. Alessandro Vieira with 20 signatures. This report is dated about 34 days before today. https://www.riotimesonline.com/moraes-impeachment-requests-senate-count-2026/ - [2026-10-15] Eduardo Bolsonaro said Moraes should be removed if his brother Flávio wins the 25 Oct runoff. The article notes a president cannot remove a justice. Only resignation, retirement, death, a final court judgment or Senate impeachment can end the tenure. https://www.spacemoney.com.br/politica/eduardo-bolsonaro-afastar-moraes-stf-flavio-eleicao - [2026-10-09] Moraes issued an arrest warrant for Eduardo Bolsonaro. This was weeks before the 25 Oct runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, whom Al Jazeera calls the favourite. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/9/brazilian-supreme-court-judge-issues-arrest-warrant-for-eduardo-bolsonaro - [2026-09-16] The Banco Master crisis: on 1 Sep, Justice Mendonça lifted secrecy on a Federal Police report. It shows about 50 messages between ex-banker Vorcaro and a number attributed to Moraes. On 15 Sep the STF ended its session without deciding whether Moraes can be investigated. Dino asked for time to review and has 90 days, which runs to about mid-December. The preliminary vote was 4–3 for separate trials of Moraes and Mendonça. Moraes denies wrongdoing. https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/justica/noticia/2026-09/court-undecided-whether-moraes-can-be-probed-fellow-justices - [2026-09-11] A site reports, citing allies, that Moraes decided not to resign because leaving could look like an admission of guilt. He has made no formal public statement. This is an unconfirmed report from a low-tier site. https://www.bombeirosdf.com.br/2026/09/moraes-descarta-renuncia-e-decide.html - [2026-10-18] A report says STF interlocutors tie Moraes's exit to that of Nunes Marques, as a message to Flávio Bolsonaro. The article stresses that this does not mean either is about to leave. I could not open the page and saw only a search snippet. https://spdiario.com.br/noticias/politica/interlocutores-do-stf-condicionam-saida-de-moraes-a-de-nunes-marques-em-recado-a-flavio-bolsonaro.html - [2026-09-03] Editorials in Estadão, O Globo and Folha on 1–2 Sep called for Moraes to leave the court. As of 3 Sep, 55 impeachment petitions had been filed against him. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes - [2026-10-17] The US State Department defended its past Magnitsky measures against Moraes. The sanctions were imposed on 30 Jul 2025 and lifted on 12 Dec 2025. On 16 Aug 2026 the FT reported that new sanctions had been discussed, with no decision. https://www.riotimesonline.com/us-moraes-sanctions-brazil-magnitsky/ - [2026-03-xx] A fact-check calls the claim that Moraes resigned a hoax, with no official record of a resignation. The fact-check is about 225 days old. https://www.boatos.org/politica/alexandre-de-moraes-renunciou-ao-stf-para-evitar-impeachment-em-2027.html - [2026-12-31] Scheduled events before close: the 25 Oct presidential runoff, and Dino's STF review of the Moraes probe, due by about mid-December. The Senate impeachment push would only begin after the new Senate takes office on 1 Feb 2027. Moraes was born in Dec 1968, so he is 57 and far from the mandatory retirement age of 75. BOTTOM LINE: As of 18 Oct 2026 Moraes remains on the court, with no resignation announcement and no impeachment process opened. The impeachment push from the incoming Senate only starts in Feb 2027, after the market closes. The main near-term risks before 31 Dec are a voluntary exit under pressure from the Banco Master scandal, or a post-runoff shock, and I found only unconfirmed rumours of either. NOT FOUND: Any official statement from Moraes or the STF about resigning or retiring. Any scheduled Senate action on impeachment before February 2027. The outcome or latest news on the runoff. Any news from the last 7 days beyond the 17 Oct statements.

- [2026-10-16] Reuters says the incoming Congress plans an "unprecedented" impeachment of a justice, with Moraes as the target. The impeachment push has accelerated since Moraes's reported communications with a jailed banker came out. Since 2023 there have been 48 failed requests to impeach Moraes. None reached trial, because the Senate president decides whether a complaint advances. Reuters says Rogerio Marinho, campaign manager for Flavio Bolsonaro, is likely to become the next Senate president. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-10-16/analysis-brazils-incoming-right-wing-congress-takes-aim-at-judge-who-jailed-bolsonaro - [2026-10-16] Conviction needs 54 of 81 senators. Flavio Bolsonaro's PL won a record 28 seats. He has backing from five other parties holding another 22 seats, so about 50 in total, still short of 54. The new Senate takes office in February 2027. Flavio Bolsonaro faces Lula in the 25 October runoff, and Reuters says polls favour him. The runoff and the February Senate takeover both fall at or after the likely outcome window, and the new Senate sits only after 1 February 2027, which leaves about 11 months in the 2027 calendar but none inside this market's window. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-10-16/analysis-brazils-incoming-right-wing-congress-takes-aim-at-judge-who-jailed-bolsonaro - [2026-10-06] Historical base rate: the Senate has never approved an impeachment petition against a Supreme Court justice. At the start of October 2026 there were 109 petitions pending against the court. Professor Marona says impeachment is difficult but "no longer unthinkable". She calls the February Senate presidency election the key moment. https://www.courthousenews.com/brazils-right-wing-senate-majority-sets-stage-for-supreme-court-overhaul/ - [2026-09-01] Senate President Alcolumbre said 109 petitions were pending against the 10 sitting justices, and Sen. Viana filed the 54th against Moraes alone. None has ever been approved. Damares Alves called on Moraes to resign. https://www.riotimesonline.com/alcolumbre-109-impeachment-requests-sit-at-the-senate/ - [2026-09-02] Estadão and Folha published editorials on 1–2 Sept 2026 urging Moraes to leave the court, by resignation or removal. Wikipedia counts 55 new petitions as of 3 Sept 2026. Elite and press pressure has grown, but he has shown no sign of yielding. https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-midia/estadao-folha-e-globo-defendem-saida-de-moraes-do-supremo/ - [2026-10-12] Metrópoles reports that a wing of the PL in the Senate prefers early voluntary retirement of Moraes and Dino to impeachment. They see it as a more peaceful route, modelled on Barroso's early exit in 2025. This is a report of senators' preferences, not a deal, and nothing indicates Moraes agrees. Moraes is 57, and his compulsory retirement at 75 falls in 2043. https://www.metropoles.com/colunas/igor-gadelha/para-ala-do-pl-aposentadoria-de-ministros-do-stf-e-melhor-que-impeachment - [2025-10-09] Precedent for an early voluntary exit: Barroso announced early retirement on 9 Oct 2025, about 7 years before the mandatory age. Moraes has given no comparable signal in any source I found. https://tagteam.harvard.edu/hub_feeds/3884/feed_items/16322581/about - [2025-10-09] JOTA schedules the next compulsory retirements for 2028–2030 (Fux, Cármen Lúcia, Gilmar). Moraes's is 2043. No scheduled departure falls in 2026. https://tagteam.harvard.edu/hub_feeds/3884/feed_items/16323016/content - [2021-08-25] Earlier attempts to impeach Moraes were shelved by the Senate president within days. Bolsonaro filed in Aug 2021 and Pacheco rejected it on 25 Aug 2021. Pacheco also dismissed the 2022 filing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/56th_Legislature_of_the_National_Congress - [2025-08-03] An early-Aug 2025 count had 34 senators for impeachment, 19 against and 28 undecided, against the 54 needed. The Senate has never removed a justice in modern times. https://www.riotimesonline.com/ousting-the-greatest-liability-brazils-senate-sees-growing-push-to-impeach-supreme-court-judge-moraes/ - [2026-08-16] The FT reports the US discussed re-imposing Magnitsky sanctions on Moraes, with no decision. The 2025 listing was lifted on 12 Dec 2025. US sanctions did not move Moraes or the Senate in 2025. https://www.riotimesonline.com/us-moraes-sanctions-brazil-magnitsky/ - [2026-01-08] A sibling Polymarket market, "Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027", showed "No" at about 96% when I checked it, in an early-2026 snapshot. That is a stale figure with no later update. https://polymarket.com/event/any-brazil-stf-justice-removed-by-impeachment-before-2027 BOTTOM LINE: Outside view: no STF justice has ever been removed by impeachment, and Moraes has survived dozens of petitions. The new Senate that could change that sits only from February 2027, after this market closes on 1 Jan 2027. A YES before then would essentially need an unannounced voluntary resignation, which is reported as a PL preference but has no sign of Moraes agreeing. NOT FOUND: Any Moraes statement about resigning or retiring; any scheduled Senate action on him before 2027; any pre-2027 poll or expert estimate of his exit; any dated update to the sibling market's odds; the omitted part of the Reuters article.

YES means: Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be an STF Justice, or announces his resignation, retirement or removal, between now and 31 Dec 2026 (11:59 PM ET). He would have to resign or retire early, or be forced out by an inquiry-linked suspension, since Senate impeachment cannot conclude in this window. - [2026-10-14] Gazeta do Povo (Renan Ramalho) reports that Moraes's allies on the court now accept the "message from the ballot box" and are trying to negotiate. They offer to back STF-curbing reforms in exchange for protection. The article also says a way out "inside the court" is being discussed. Chief Justice Fachin has signalled support for opening an investigation of Moraes, arguing that if the STF does not correct itself, the response will come from outside and be harsher. Such an inquiry would probably mean his temporary removal from duties. I read the page. This is the most credible route to a YES inside the window, but it is an analyst's reading of backstage talk and not a decision. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/vozes/renan-ramalho/stf-reluta-em-aceitar-impeachment-de-moraes-e-articula-estrategias-para-conter-o-senado/ - [2026-10-14] The same article says the Moraes bloc is trying to block the internal inquiry by casting suspicion on other justices. It also says part of the court stays loyal because it fears retaliation. Both points cut against a YES. For the argument: a temporary removal ("for any period of time") would meet the literal wording. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/vozes/renan-ramalho/stf-reluta-em-aceitar-impeachment-de-moraes-e-articula-estrategias-para-conter-o-senado/ - [2026-10-18] Cármen Lúcia's vote was described as decisive in the 15 Sep judgment. Only 8 justices vote, because Moraes and Toffoli are out and one seat is vacant. A Gazeta do Povo programme on 16 Oct says Nunes Marques has decided to take part in the vote on opening the probe, and that his vote could strengthen the pro-investigation group. This contradicts the 15 Sep report that he declared himself impeded. I read only the snippet, and the claim rests on a column by Paulo Cappelli. https://gazetadopovo.com.br/sem-rodeios/nunes-marques-complica-situacao-de-moraes-no-stf - [2026-09-15] The preliminary vote was 4–3, and Dino's 90-day review runs to about mid-December. Dino's return, or Fachin's push, could open an inquiry before 31 Dec. The 14 Oct Fachin ruling that archived a lawyers' request for investigation and removal was procedural only, because the lawyers lacked standing, and did not reach the merits. https://www.blogdoleosantos.com.br/2026/10/14/decisao-no-stf-fachin-arquiva-pedido-de-investigacao-contra-alexandre-de-moraes-relacionado-a-contrato-do-banco-master/ - [2026-10-18] Alcolumbre is working to be re-elected Senate president against Rogério Marinho, and is reported to be negotiating 49 votes. He opposes impeaching justices, especially Moraes, to whom he is close. He is also pushing Pacheco for the STF vacancy. I fetched the page, and it is from Ipolítica citing G1. This cuts against a fast Senate path. For YES it means the only way out before 1 Feb 2027 is voluntary or via the STF itself. https://m.imirante.com/noticias/brasil/2026/10/18/ipolitica-alcolumbre-articula-reeleicao-presidencia-senado - [2026-09-01] Senators on the record: Alessandro Vieira called Moraes a "legal and political corpse". Carlos Viana said the STF itself should remove him. Izalci Lucas wanted a vote before his own term ends. Damares proposed halting Senate votes until Moraes resigns or is impeached. This shows how fierce the pressure is, but none of it is binding. https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2026/09/01/senadores-pedem-impeachment-do-ministro-alexandre-de-moraes-do-stf - [2026-09-01] Folha's headline was "A Moraes cabe a renúncia" ("Resignation is for Moraes to do"), and its editorial said there is no longer room for him on the STF. Estadão and O Globo made similar calls. This is mainstream press, not just partisan press, calling for resignation. https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-midia/estadao-folha-e-globo-defendem-saida-de-moraes-do-supremo/ - [2026-09-11] A low-tier site says Moraes prepared a public statement and then delayed it after hearing from allied justices. It also says Fachin took him off the fake-news inquiry. This suggests he is under real internal pressure, but the report is unconfirmed. https://www.bombeirosdf.com.br/2026/09/moraes-descarta-renuncia-e-decide.html - [2025-10-09] Barroso resigned early on his own timing, with an announcement at the end of a session. The precedent shows a justice can announce an exit abruptly, and an announcement alone resolves this market YES. https://tagteam.harvard.edu/hub_feeds/3884/feed_items/16322581/content - [2026-10-14] If a Flávio Bolsonaro win on 25 Oct comes with a Senate that will hold impeachment hearings from Feb 2027, Moraes faces a stark choice. He can resign in Nov–Dec, ahead of an impeachment trial that would expose the sealed fake-news records. The Gazeta article reports this fear among the justices. A resignation before the Senate takes office would also avoid the proposed 8-year ineligibility bill (PLP 268/2026, introduced 15 Oct), which applies to loss of office. No source shows Moraes considering it. https://atlaspublico.com.br/senado/noticias/projeto-no-senado-torna-inelegiveis-por-8-anos-os-ex-92605 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a negotiated early exit or an STF-side step (an Fachin/Dino-led inquiry that suspends or sidelines him) in the weeks after the 25 Oct runoff and before the new Senate sits on 1 Feb 2027. The prerequisites are a Flávio win, a deal in which he steps down for guarantees, and loss of the Nunes Marques/Cármen Lúcia swing votes. I found only analyst speculation for this. His allies say he has ruled out resigning, and Senate impeachment cannot finish inside the window. NOT FOUND: Any statement from Moraes or the STF about resigning. Any inquiry opened or a date for Dino's return. Any scheduled Senate action before Feb 2027. Any report of a negotiated exit with Flávio. The date of the next STF session on Pet 16.662.

YES means: Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of the STF between 2026-03-09 and 2026-12-31 (resignation, retirement, or removal). An announced resignation or removal before the deadline also resolves YES. - [2026-09-21] Marinho's draft Senate rule change (Projeto de Resolução 54/2026) would set deadlines for the Senate president to act on impeachment complaints, and would let a complaint be received with 49 votes. It is only a draft. The ND Mais article (fetched) says the current Senate rules set no deadline for the preliminary review. Rule changes would need a new Senate majority, and the new Senate takes office in Feb 2027. The Senate president can therefore still sit on complaints through 31 Dec. https://ndmais.com.br/politica/impeachment-de-ministros-do-stf-projeto-preve-novas-regras/ - [2026-09-02] PL Senate leader Portinho told reporters the opposition group has 32 senators and cannot force a general obstruction of votes. He tied the impeachment to a new Senate president chosen by the future majority, working "from next year". The opposition itself concedes that no removal path exists in 2026. (Fetched Correio Braziliense.) https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2026/09/7492543-oposicao-cobra-alcolumbre-por-impeachment-de-moraes.html - [2026-09-01] Alcolumbre, asked about the Vorcaro messages, said "I found nothing, I shouldn't find anything" and framed the 109 requests as "not normal". The Gazeta do Povo read this as a signal that he will not advance the case. He holds the Senate presidency until Feb 2027. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/alcolumbre-sinaliza-que-nao-pautara-impeachment-de-moraes-109-pedidos-contra-stf/ - [2026-09 (Law 1.079/1950 process)] Even if a request were accepted, the process has several steps: reading in plenary, a special committee opinion, a plenary vote (41 votes), a 10-day defense, a further opinion, and a trial needing 54 votes. Metrópoles describes these steps. No stage has begun, and no step is possible while the Senate president withholds the complaint. Completion by 31 Dec is practically unreachable. https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/impeachment-de-ministro-do-stf-depende-de-54-votos-no-senado-entenda - [2026-09-15 to 2026-09-21] The STF probe is stuck on a procedural question. The 4–3 count was only on whether to try Moraes's case separately from Mendonça's. It was not on opening an investigation. Dino's 90-day recess on the case runs to about mid-December. Even an investigation does not remove a justice. Fachin has also taken the Mendonça side of the dispute off the fake-news inquiry, so the court is handling the dispute internally. https://timesbrasil.com.br/brasil/caso-master-novo-pede-que-stf-desconsidere-pedido-de-vista-de-dino-em-julgamento-sobre-moraes/ - [2026-09-04] On the day after the leak, the court's other nine justices did not address it at the plenary session. De Moraes sat beside Mendonça, and he had not commented on the findings. Reported interaction between the justices shows no sign of a push from within the court to remove him. https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2026/sep/04/brazilian-justice-faces-calls-to-quit-post/ - [2026-09 (expert comment)] A Correio Braziliense headline cites an expert saying the STF is likely to shield Moraes from investigation: "I have not yet seen Supreme Court justices lose anything in any scenario." This is opinion, not fact, but it fits the pattern that the court protects its members. https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2026/09/7492543-oposicao-cobra-alcolumbre-por-impeachment-de-moraes.html - [2025-08-01] Precedent for resisting pressure: after the US sanctions, Moraes said he would "ignore the sanctions" and keep working. The sanctions were lifted in Dec 2025 and he stayed. He has held on through foreign sanctions, an arrest-ordering conflict with Trump and dozens of petitions. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/brazil-judge-alexandre-de-moraes-says-supreme-court-won-t-bow-to-trump-sanctions - [2025-08 (arrest order)] Reuters reported that during the Bolsonaro case the other justices were supportive of Moraes and that Lula's circle said the president lacks the will or ability to influence the court. The government will not push him out. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/brazils-supreme-court-caught-off-224042471.html - [Mechanism: resignation] No removal route exists before Feb 2027. A YES would need Moraes to resign, and a resignation would run against his stated posture of denial and the "admission of guilt" logic reported on 2026-09-11. Resigning would also strip him of the STF forum he would face, which makes it costly for him to leave while investigations are open. This is inference, not sourced fact. BOTTOM LINE: The only mechanisms that can remove Moraes before 31 Dec 2026 are his own resignation or a very fast Senate process. The second is blocked by Alcolumbre and the rules until Feb 2027, and the first has no confirmed sign of happening. The status quo, with his tenure running to 2043, favours NO. NOT FOUND: Any official statement from Moraes on resigning or retiring, any Senate scheduling before Feb 2027, any dated post-runoff news, and any primary STF or Senate source beyond the Senate news page snippet.