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Will the FDA approve Any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
15%
Agent
22%
Market Price
-7.5%
Edge
57%
Confidence
414,068
Volume
5.0c
Spread
74
Days to resolution
1
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 2 draws (0.15, 0.14). (0) Nothing shows this already resolved. The FDA Novel Drug Approvals 2026 page, current to 10/9, lists no psychedelic, and trackers through August confirm none has ever been approved. That page has not been read for 10/10 onward, so there is a small gap. (a) About 74 days remain until Jan 1, 2027. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No: no psychedelic NDA has a PDUFA date in 2026, and Compass had not finished its COMP360 NDA as of late September, when its CEO said the clinical module was still pending. (c) No scenario: Compass completes the NDA in November or December, FDA filing acceptance takes 2–8 weeks, and even a 44–61 day priority-voucher review pushes the decision into Q1 2027. That fits Compass's own H1 2027 launch guidance and its statement that it is not planning for acceleration. (d) Yes scenario: Compass submits the final module in October, FDA files it in about 2–3 weeks, and political pressure (EO 14401, Commissioner rhetoric, Jefferies calling for year-end approval) produces a fast review like the roughly 50-day Foundayo approval, with a letter in late December. A surprise fast action on the MDMA resubmission is a much smaller tail, since that package follows a CRL and has no new trial. The market sits at 22% (bid 17%), but the research shows a required sequence with almost no slack and no confirmed submission, so I shade below it to about 15%.
re-scan context
This market has been scanned before. Previous predictions:
| date | predicted | market price | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 23% | 29% | 61% |
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen:
kalshi_direct
resolution_source
kalshi_related
polymarket_related
earnings_data
article_search
Planner reasoning
The Kalshi price is the anchor. The resolution source is FDA approval letters (Drugs@FDA / novel drug approvals). The key candidates are Compass Pathways COMP360 psilocybin (NDA timing), Lykos MDMA resubmission, MindMed MM120 LSD, and Cybin; earnings data on CMPS, MNMD and ATAI gives sponsor timelines and sentiment. Related markets on both venues provide cross-checks, and a targeted search covers PDUFA dates.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5.5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports)
Tools
- kalshi_direct: ## This Market's Kalshi Data **Any psychedelic substance for medical use** (KXFDAAPPROVALPSYCHEDELIC-27-ANYPSYCH) - Current price (probability): 22.00% (live; bid 17% / ask 22%) - Last daily close (2026-10-18): 24.00% - 7-day price change: +1.00% - 30-day price change: -6.00% - Average daily volume: 715 contracts - Price range: 13.00% - 43.00% - Data points: 90 days
- resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=2026-10-09. The FDA's Novel Drug Approvals for 2026 page (content current as of 10/09/2026) lists 46 novel approvals, the latest being #46 Hovilpri (pritelivir) on 10/9/2026. None of the visible entries (#1–9 and #23–46) is a psychedelic. Credible reports from August to September 2026 confirm that no psychedelic has been approved yet. T
- kalshi_related: 2 related markets / summaries. series KXFDAAPPROVALPSYCHEDELIC: | keyword 'psilocybin FDA': ok | keyword 'MDMA FDA': ok
- polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 1 matches. keyword 'psilocybin': 0 markets | keyword 'MDMA approval': 1 markets | keyword 'psychedelic FDA': 0 markets
- earnings_data: Fetched FMP data for 3 ticker(s).
- article_search: Fetched 16 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=120d). 'COMP360 NDA PDUFA date': 8 articles | 'psychedelic NDA PDUFA 2026': 8 articles
Research loops, bottom lines
- current state: As of 2026-10-18, no psychedelic NDA has a PDUFA date before 2027-01-01. Compass's NDA is not yet complete, and the MDMA resubmission is unconfirmed by the company and, on a standard clock, would be decided after year-end. A 2026 approval would therefore need a completed psilocybin NDA, a voucher review of about 1–2 months or less, and an approval before Dec 31, or an unusually fast MDMA action.
- base rate: The base rate for a first-ever classic psychedelic approval in any given year is essentially zero. The only plausible path this year is COMP360 finishing its NDA in Q4 and being approved within weeks under the CNPV pilot. Compass's own H1-2027 launch guidance and the 120–150 day reality check make approval before 2027-01-01 a tail outcome, but the fast-track makes it more than negligible.
- yes case: The best YES case is that Compass completes its NDA in early Q4 and the CNPV runs at the roughly 44–61-day pace of recent approvals, with leadership pushing hard. The arithmetic still puts the most likely action date in Jan–Feb 2027, so YES needs a very early final submission plus a faster-than-precedent review.
- no case: Compass's NDA was still missing its clinical module as of Sept 24. Even the fastest CNPV precedent of 50 days, from a filing completed by early November at the latest, would land at the end of the year with no slack. The only other candidate, the MDMA resubmission, is unconfirmed, follows a prior CRL and has no new trial. Status quo (no approval) is strongly favored.
tools
| tool | status | time | items | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi_direct | OK | 0.2s | 1 | ## This Market's Kalshi Data **Any psychedelic substance for medical use** (KXFDAAPPROVALPSYCHEDELIC-27-ANYPSYCH) - Current price (probability): 22.00% (live; bid 17% / ask 22%) - Last daily close (2026-10-18): 24.00% - 7-day price change: +1.00% - 30-day price change: -6.00% - Average daily volume |
| resolution_source | OK | 17.0s | 1 | already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=2026-10-09. The FDA's Novel Drug Approvals for 2026 page (content current as of 10/09/2026) lists 46 novel approvals, the latest being #46 Hovilpri (pritelivir) on 10/9/2026. None of the visible entries (#1–9 and #23–46) is a psychedelic. |
| kalshi_related | OK | 8.6s | 2 | 2 related markets / summaries. series KXFDAAPPROVALPSYCHEDELIC: | keyword 'psilocybin FDA': ok | keyword 'MDMA FDA': ok |
| polymarket_related | OK | 0.8s | 1 | Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 1 matches. keyword 'psilocybin': 0 markets | keyword 'MDMA approval': 1 markets | keyword 'psychedelic FDA': 0 markets |
| earnings_data | OK | 0.8s | 3 | Fetched FMP data for 3 ticker(s). |
| article_search | OK | 0.5s | 16 | Fetched 16 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=120d). 'COMP360 NDA PDUFA date': 8 articles | 'psychedelic NDA PDUFA 2026': 8 articles |
research loops
·
4/4 ok ·
18 searches ·
4 page reads
| dimension | status | time | searches | page reads | report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current state | OK | 21s | 5 | 0 | 4391 chars |
| base rate | OK | 25s | 5 | 2 | 6104 chars |
| yes case | OK | 22s | 4 | 0 | 5499 chars |
| no case | OK | 22s | 4 | 2 | 5757 chars |
report: current state
- [2026-10-18] I found no reports of an FDA approval of any psychedelic. An August 2026 tracker said no classic psychedelic (psilocybin, MDMA, LSD, DMT or ibogaine) is FDA-approved for anything. https://www.resolv.social/topics/psychedelic-therapy-fda-status
- [2026-08-05] Compass Pathways (COMP360 psilocybin, treatment-resistant depression) is still on a rolling NDA with only "some modules" submitted. It expects to complete all modules in Q4 2026 and to launch in H1 2027, subject to FDA approval and DEA rescheduling. No PDUFA date exists. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1816590/000181659026000059/q22026pressrelease.htm
- [2026-04-24] FDA gave Compass a Commissioner's National Priority Voucher and granted rolling review. The voucher aims for a review of about 1–2 months after the filing is complete, but that is a goal, not a statutory clock. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001816590/000181659026000059/q22026pressrelease.htm
- [2026-04-24] FDA issued three psychedelic vouchers: Compass (psilocybin, TRD), Usona (psilocybin, MDD) and Transcend (methylone, PTSD). Usona had not yet submitted an application as of that date. https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com/view/fda-grants-priority-vouchers-to-3-psychedelic-medications
- [2026-04-18] Executive Order 14401 directs FDA, DEA and others to speed psychedelic review. It does not lower the evidentiary bar or reschedule any drug. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001985062/000121390026093628/ea0302774-f3_psyence.htm
- [2026-08-12] Resilient Pharmaceuticals (formerly Lykos) reportedly resubmitted its MDMA-for-PTSD NDA in early August 2026, without a new Phase 3 trial. The company has not publicly confirmed this. Psychedelic Alpha cites anonymous sources and says the FDA Division of Psychiatry is the ultimate decision-maker. Psychedelic Alpha also says the review race with the psilocybin developers is "too close to call". https://psychedelicalpha.com/news/two-years-after-rejection-resilient-quietly-refiles-mdma-for-ptsd-application/
- [2026-08-10] MAPS responded to the reported resubmission. It noted the original Complete Response Letter of 2024-08-09. https://maps.org/2026/08/10/maps-responds-to-report-of-progress-for-mdma-assisted-therapy-for-ptsd-with-fda/
- [2026-08] A tracker estimates a roughly 6-month Class 2 resubmission clock from August 2026, which would put a decision around February 2027, after the market closes. That is a third-party estimate, not an FDA date. https://www.resolv.social/topics/psychedelic-therapy-fda-status
- [2026-08-12] Definium (formerly MindMed) LSD (DT120) had a positive Phase 3 in GAD (Voyage). Psychedelic Alpha expects its NDA in H1 2027, so there is no approval in 2026. The same tracker lists Panorama topline as expected September 2026. https://psychedelicalpha.com/news/two-years-after-rejection-resilient-quietly-refiles-mdma-for-ptsd-application/
- [2026-07-14] FDA finalized its guidance "Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Investigations". A public hearing was held 2026-09-14, and the written comment period closed 2026-10-05. https://mindmedicinelaw.com/law/fda-psychedelic-clinical-trial-guidance
- [2026-10-15] The latest relevant item found is the Compass 10-Q, which still lists the final NDA as incomplete. No news of a completed psilocybin NDA submission or filing acceptance turned up. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001816590/000181659026000058/cmps-20260630.htm
- [2026-09-14] The FDA hearing on potential future therapeutic use of psychedelics was held. It signals agency engagement but is not an approval event. https://mindmedicinelaw.com/law/fda-psychedelic-clinical-trial-guidance
BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-18, no psychedelic NDA has a PDUFA date before 2027-01-01. Compass's NDA is not yet complete, and the MDMA resubmission is unconfirmed by the company and, on a standard clock, would be decided after year-end. A 2026 approval would therefore need a completed psilocybin NDA, a voucher review of about 1–2 months or less, and an approval before Dec 31, or an unusually fast MDMA action.
NOT FOUND: Any approval letter or PDUFA date for a psychedelic. Any confirmation that Compass or Usona completed their NDA after Aug 2026. Any official FDA statement on the MDMA resubmission's acceptance or goal date. The Panorama topline result. News from the last 7 days (the search quota ran out).
report: base rate
- [2026-10-18] No psychedelic is FDA-approved as of the latest trackers I found. The most recent is dated Aug 2026, and I found no later report of any approval. Esketamine (Spravato) is the only approved psychedelic-adjacent drug, and it falls under the contract's "previously approved" exclusion. https://www.resolv.social/topics/psychedelic-therapy-fda-status
- [2026-08-05] Compass Pathways (COMP360 psilocybin, treatment-resistant depression) has a rolling NDA with some modules already submitted. Its Q2 release says the final submission is "expected to be completed in Q4" and launch is expected in H1 2027. https://ir.compasspathways.com/News--Events-/news/news-details/2026/Compass-Pathways-Announces-Second-Quarter-and-First-Half-2026-Financial-Results-and-Business-Highlights/default.aspx
- [2026-09-24] The CEO said Compass is "on track" to finish the NDA in Q4 and is still completing its integrated summaries, including the integrated safety summary. The NDA was therefore not complete as of late September. He said approval timing is uncertain because there are few precedents for this kind of rolling NDA. https://marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/event-compass-pathways-targets-q4-comp360-nda-completion-eyes-2027-launch-2026-09-24/?amp=
- [2026-04-24] FDA issued Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers (CNPV) to Compass (psilocybin, TRD), Usona (psilocybin, MDD) and Transcend (methylone, PTSD). The press release followed the April 18 executive order. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-accelerates-action-treatments-serious-mental-illness-following-executive-order
- [2025-06-17] The CNPV target is a 1–2 month review after the final submission. Sponsors must also submit CMC and labeling at least 60 days before the complete application. FDA reserves the right to extend the review if data are incomplete, results are ambiguous or the review is complex. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issue-new-commissioners-national-priority-vouchers-companies-supporting-us-national-interests
- [2025-06-17] Outside view on CNPV speed: Brookings (published about Oct 2025, secondary source) judged true 30–60 day reviews unlikely and called 120–150 days from the start of pre-submissions realistic. Venable put the whole process at a 3–4 month target. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/fdas-new-commissioners-national-priority-voucher-has-lofty-goals-can-it-deliver/
- [2025-12] CNPV track record is thin. The first CNPV approval was Augmentin XR, an antibiotic reformulation, in December 2025. The program began in June 2025 and gave its first vouchers in October 2025. No precedent exists for a novel Schedule I psychiatric NME going through it. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/race-first-psychedelic-approval-whos-leading-2026a1000e0n?form=fpf
- [2026-08-10] Resilient (formerly Lykos) reportedly resubmitted its MDMA-for-PTSD NDA in Aug 2026 with no new Phase 3 trial. The source is anonymous reporting by Psychedelic Alpha, and the company has not publicly discussed it. The FDA CRL was issued 2024-08-09, and the advisory committee voted 9–2 against on efficacy in June 2024. This filing has no CNPV that I could confirm. A class 2 resubmission would normally carry a 6-month review goal, which would fall in about Feb 2027 and so after the contract closes. That goal is my inference from standard FDA practice, not a source finding. https://psychedelicalpha.com/news/two-years-after-rejection-resilient-quietly-refiles-mdma-for-ptsd-application/
- [2026-07-07] Compass's COMP006 26-week data were positive. COMP005 was positive in June 2025 and COMP006 in Feb 2026. Trackers describe approval as "late 2026 or early 2027" and say no PDUFA date exists because the NDA is incomplete. These are third-party estimates, not FDA statements. https://psychedelicbeacon.com/blog/psilocybin-fda-approval-tracker
- [2026-10-05] FDA held a public hearing on psychedelics on 2026-09-14, with a comment period through Oct 5. It issued final psychedelic trial guidance on 2026-07-14. Neither is an approval. https://mindmedicinelaw.com/law/fda-psychedelic-clinical-trial-guidance
- [Base rate] Historically, zero classic psychedelics (psilocybin, MDMA, LSD, DMT, ibogaine, mescaline) have been approved. The one NDA that reached a decision, MDMA, got a CRL in 2024. Standard review is 10–12 months from complete submission, and 6 months for priority review. Approval before 2027-01-01 requires Compass to finish the NDA in Q4 and FDA to approve within weeks, using a pilot program with no precedent for this kind of drug. Compass itself guides to launch in H1 2027, which implies approval around year-end or later. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/faqs-commissioners-national-priority-voucher-pilot-program
- [2026-10-18] The contract excludes drugs whose active ingredient was already approved, so AXS-05 and esketamine-type approvals do not count. The only candidates that could qualify in time are COMP360 (psilocybin) and possibly Usona's psilocybin or MDMA. Usona's Phase 3 results are pending and its NDA is not filed. Transcend's methylone is still in Phase 3. https://www.medicaldaily.com/psilocybin-fda-priority-review-2026-compass-pathways-depression-ptsd-approval-475666
BOTTOM LINE: The base rate for a first-ever classic psychedelic approval in any given year is essentially zero. The only plausible path this year is COMP360 finishing its NDA in Q4 and being approved within weeks under the CNPV pilot. Compass's own H1-2027 launch guidance and the 120–150 day reality check make approval before 2027-01-01 a tail outcome, but the fast-track makes it more than negligible.
NOT FOUND: any FDA-assigned PDUFA or action date for COMP360 or the MDMA resubmission; any confirmation that Compass has completed its NDA; any CNPV on the MDMA resubmission; any expert-survey or prediction-market probability for 2026 approval (other venues' markets were not searched, per the instructions); a case where a CNPV review of a novel controlled-substance NME was completed, and the actual elapsed review times of other CNPV approvals.
report: yes case
YES means: the FDA issues an NDA approval letter for a qualifying psychedelic (most likely Compass's COMP360 psilocybin) between now and 2026-12-31. Approval of a previously approved ingredient doesn't count.
- [2026-09-24] The only path I could find is COMP360 for treatment-resistant depression. The CEO said Compass has submitted every NDA module except the clinical module. That module is being finalized after the integrated summaries from the two Phase 3 trials (~900 patients). Compass is already getting FDA information requests, so parts of the NDA are under active review. It remains "on track" to finish in Q4. https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/compass-pathways-targets-q4-comp360-000207683.html
- [2026-10-18] The voucher timeline has these steps: presubmission, a 14–21 day filing period, then a 30–60 day review. A Council meeting is held 1–2 weeks before the target action date. Compass has already front-loaded the CMC and labeling modules. The ~60-day presubmission step has therefore largely run, which leaves filing plus review. https://prvwatch.com/cnpv-dashboard
- [2026-04-01 and earlier] The speed record supports a fast review. Four CNPV decisions came 44–61 days after filing: Hernexeos 44, orforglipron 50, Tec-Dara 55 and Otarmeni 61. Orforglipron was the first new molecular entity, approved 50 days after filing and 294 days before its PDUFA date. https://www.thebrackengroup.com/blog/one-year-in-where-the-fda-commissioner-s-national-priority-voucher-pilot-stands-and-what-sponsors-need-to-know and https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-new-molecular-entity-under-national-priority-voucher-program
- [2026-10-18] The record is longer than the earlier reports showed. The tracker lists approvals through Aug 26, 2026 (daraxonrasib, pancreatic cancer, a novel oncology drug) and enlicitide on Jul 15, 2026. About a dozen CNPV approvals now exist, so the pilot is a working fast lane, not just an untested promise. https://prvwatch.com/cnpv-dashboard
- [2026-10-18] The "filing" clock is the key mechanic. Those review counts run from filing, not from submission. A final submission in early-to-mid Q4 would give the following sequence. Filing would come by about early December, which is the same step the CEO describes as an FDA acceptance period of up to 60 days. A 44–61 day review would then land in late January 2027 or later. A decision before Dec 31 requires a submission in about October and a filing acceptance in under 3 weeks, or unusually fast action. This is my arithmetic from the FDA-reported intervals, not a source statement. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-grants-third-approval-under-national-priority-voucher-program
- [2026-04-24] Political tailwind: the FDA Commissioner reportedly said a decision could come by "late summer or fall 2026". Executive Order 14401 and the same-day vouchers show top-level priority. https://www.medicaldaily.com/psilocybin-fda-priority-review-2026-compass-pathways-depression-ptsd-approval-475666
- [2026-04-24] Sell-side analysts have been bullish. Jefferies projects FDA approval by year-end 2026, followed by DEA rescheduling and an early-2027 launch. The Psychedelic Beacon tracker lists "late 2026 or early 2027" as the decision window. https://www.inteliview.kr/en/topics/us-stocks/compass-pathways-psilocybin-fda-trd-approval-2026 and https://psychedelicbeacon.com/blog/psilocybin-fda-approval-tracker
- [2026-08-05] "Launch H1 2027" is compatible with a 2026 approval. Launch also requires DEA rescheduling, which can take up to 90 days after approval. An approval in Dec 2026 would still produce an H1 2027 launch. Compass also says it plans to be "launch ready by end of year". https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260805927238/en/Compass-Pathways-Announces-Second-Quarter-and-First-Half-2026-Financial-Results-and-Business-Highlights
- [2026-08-09] Second path, the MDMA resubmission. It was reported on Aug 9 and MAPS confirmed it on Aug 10. HCPLive says MAPS "confirmed" it, which is firmer than the earlier "company has not confirmed" framing. The Commissioner publicly signaled receptiveness to considering the audit results "in due process", and Psychedelic Alpha reads leadership as not requiring a fresh Phase 3. An early action would need a shortened clock, and I found no FDA goal date. https://www.hcplive.com/view/mdma-assisted-therapy-nda-resubmitted-fda-ptsd and https://psychedelicalpha.com/news/breaking-fda-awards-priority-review-vouchers-to-otsuka-compass-and-usona/
- [2026-10-18] Not a hurdle: the controlled-substance schedule. Under the CSA, DEA's interim scheduling rule follows FDA approval by up to 90 days. Schedule I status therefore does not block an FDA approval letter, which is all this contract needs. https://mindmedicinelaw.com/law/controlled-substances-act-psychedelics
BOTTOM LINE: The best YES case is that Compass completes its NDA in early Q4 and the CNPV runs at the roughly 44–61-day pace of recent approvals, with leadership pushing hard. The arithmetic still puts the most likely action date in Jan–Feb 2027, so YES needs a very early final submission plus a faster-than-precedent review.
NOT FOUND: Any announcement that Compass has completed its NDA submission (as of Oct 18). Any FDA filing acceptance or action date for COMP360 or the MDMA resubmission. Any CNPV review of a novel Schedule I product that finished in under 40 days. The exact date within Q4 that Compass plans to finish.
report: no case
YES means: The FDA issues an NDA/BLA approval letter before 2027-01-01 for a product whose active ingredient is a qualifying psychedelic that has never been FDA-approved. Examples are psilocybin (COMP360) or MDMA. Esketamine- and AXS-05-type approvals don't count.
- [2026-09-24] Compass's CEO said at the H.C. Wainwright conference that every NDA module except the clinical module was in. The clinical module was still waiting on integrated summaries from the two Phase 3 trials, so the NDA was incomplete about 3 months before the market closes. He also said Compass expects a "standard 60-day acceptance period" after completion, and that FDA "could take up to 60 days" to accept the filing. Neither the 1–2 month approval goal nor the 30–60 day figure is a commitment. A filing completed in November or December would face acceptance review that runs into 2027. https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/compass-pathways-targets-q4-comp360-000207683.html
- [2026-09-24] Compass is guiding to a launch in H1 2027 and "launch-ready" by end of 2026. Its own timeline therefore doesn't put approval inside 2026, and launch also depends on DEA rescheduling. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260805927238/en/Compass-Pathways-Announces-Second-Quarter-and-First-Half-2026-Financial-Results-and-Business-Highlights
- [2026-04-01] The fastest CNPV novel-drug approval on record is Foundayo (orforglipron). FDA issued it 50 days after filing, and it was the first NME approved under the program. A normal PDUFA date still stood at 2027-01-20. Applying 50 days to COMP360 from a late-Q4 completion gives a decision in Q1 2027. Even the best-case precedent needs a filing no later than about early November. Foundayo is a non-controlled GLP-1 with a large, conventional safety database. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-new-molecular-entity-under-national-priority-voucher-program
- [2026-04-01] FDA's own CNPV timeline starts the review clock at "filing" (the 14–21 day filing period), not at the last module. FDA states that the 1–2 month target allows "extended review periods" at reviewers' discretion. A psychiatric NME with a Schedule I abuse-potential assessment, a REMS and a therapist-supervised dosing model is the kind of case where extension is plausible. https://prvwatch.com/cnpv-dashboard
- [2026-09-14] Compass expects its REMS to resemble Spravato's (certified prescriber, on-site healthcare professionals). FDA's draft guidance prefers 12 months of blinded durability data, and Compass has 6 months. Stifel said this is not a requirement (2026-08). These are open review issues for a novel drug, and a review council could take longer on them. https://www.streetinsider.com/General+News/Stifel+on+Compass+Pathways:+remains+on-track+to+complete+the+rolling+NDA+submission+for+COMP360+in+4Q/26913595.html
- [2026-08-09] The MDMA resubmission is, as far as I found, reported only by Psychedelic Alpha and by MAPS, which didn't independently confirm it. The wire-style coverage I found says it is "apparently" resubmitted. Healingmaps notes a resubmission "is not acceptance": FDA first decides whether to review it. The 2024 CRL asked for another Phase 3 trial, and the new filing has none. This is the same Division of Psychiatry that issued the 2024 rejection. A sub-4-month approval of a previously rejected, trial-less package would be an extreme outlier. https://healingmaps.com/mdma-ptsd-nda-resubmitted-fda-resilient/
- [2026-08-18] The Definium LSD NDA is not expected until H1 2027, per Stifel as cited by Psychedelics Today, and the other psychedelic programs are further behind. Compass is therefore the only credible 2026 candidate. A single point of failure makes the NO case simple. https://psychedelicstoday.com/2026/08/18/mdma-nda-resubmitted-fda-august-2026/
- [2026-10-05] The statute lets DEA take up to 90 days after approval to schedule the product. Approval itself is not blocked by this, but Compass and analysts frame launch as gated by it. That gives Compass little commercial reason to push for a 2026 approval date, and it fits the H1 2027 launch guidance. A DEA marijuana-hearing stay (2026-09-29) also shows the agency's scheduling process is in flux. https://psychedelicstoday.com/2026/10/05/psychedelic-policy-briefing-october-4-2026/
- [2026-05-25] On the Q1 call, Compass management said it saw no indication of timeline acceleration and was not planning for any. This is the company's own repeated conservative stance. https://psychedelicbeacon.com/blog/psilocybin-fda-approval-tracker
- [2026-10-18] I found no news after Sept 24 of Compass completing its NDA. As of today, about 74 days remain in the year. The required sequence is: complete the NDA, FDA filing and acceptance, review, then an approval letter. Any slip of the final module past early/mid-November pushes the decision into 2027 even at the best-case 50-day pace. https://marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/event-compass-pathways-targets-q4-comp360-nda-completion-eyes-2027-launch-2026-09-24/?amp=
BOTTOM LINE: Compass's NDA was still missing its clinical module as of Sept 24. Even the fastest CNPV precedent of 50 days, from a filing completed by early November at the latest, would land at the end of the year with no slack. The only other candidate, the MDMA resubmission, is unconfirmed, follows a prior CRL and has no new trial. Status quo (no approval) is strongly favored.
NOT FOUND: Any confirmation that Compass completed its NDA after Sept 24, or an FDA acceptance or action date for COMP360 or MDMA. The elapsed times of all CNPV approvals other than Foundayo (50 days) and the two oncology approvals (44 and 55 days). Any CNPV review of a controlled-substance NME. News from the last week.
3. Forecasters 2 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
55% conf
| Yes | 15% |
| No | 85% |
(0) Nothing shows this already resolved. The FDA Novel Drug Approvals 2026 page, current to 10/9, lists no psychedelic, and trackers through August confirm none has ever been approved. That page has not been read for 10/10 onward, so there is a small gap. (a) About 74 days remain until Jan 1, 2027. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No: no psychedelic NDA has a PDUFA date in 2026, and Compass had not finished its COMP360 NDA as of late September, when its CEO said the clinical module was still pending. (c) No scenario: Compass completes the NDA in November or December, FDA filing acceptance takes 2–8 weeks, and even a 44–61 day priority-voucher review pushes the decision into Q1 2027. That fits Compass's own H1 2027 launch guidance and its statement that it is not planning for acceleration. (d) Yes scenario: Compass submits the final module in October, FDA files it in about 2–3 weeks, and political pressure (EO 14401, Commissioner rhetoric, Jefferies calling for year-end approval) produces a fast review like the roughly 50-day Foundayo approval, with a letter in late December. A surprise fast action on the MDMA resubmission is a much smaller tail, since that package follows a CRL and has no new trial. The market sits at 22% (bid 17%), but the research shows a required sequence with almost no slack and no confirmed submission, so I shade below it to about 15%.
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
60% conf
| Yes | 14% |
| No | 86% |
(0) The condition has not been met. The FDA Novel Drug Approvals 2026 page, current to 10/09, lists no psychedelic, and as of mid-October I found no report of any psychedelic approval. Compass's 10-Q and its 9/24 CEO remarks show the COMP360 NDA was still missing its clinical module. (a) About 74 days remain before Jan 1, 2027. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No: no psychedelic has a PDUFA or action date before year-end. (c) NO scenario: Compass finishes the NDA in November or December. A filing period of 14–21 days, or up to 60, plus a voucher review of 44–61 days (the precedents run from filing) puts approval in Q1 2027. That fits Compass's own H1-2027 launch guidance and its statement that it is not planning on acceleration. The MDMA resubmission is reportedly on a roughly 6-month clock, after a prior CRL, with no new trial. (d) YES scenario: Compass completes the NDA in October, and the FDA files it quickly because the CMC and labeling modules were front-loaded. Leadership acting under EO 14401 and the priority voucher then approves within about 50 days, landing in late December. Jefferies had projected year-end 2026 approval. The Kalshi market sits at 22% (bid 17%). I am shading below it because the filing-clock arithmetic leaves essentially no slack, and there has been no completion announcement through mid-October. Political urgency and a voucher program that has delivered faster-than-standard approvals keep a real tail.
4. Final plain mean of 2 draws
15%
(57% confidence)
Yes: 15%
No: 86%
Mean of 2 draws (0.15, 0.14). (0) Nothing shows this already resolved. The FDA Novel Drug Approvals 2026 page, current to 10/9, lists no psychedelic, and trackers through August confirm none has ever been approved. That page has not been read for 10/10 onward, so there is a small gap. (a) About 74 days remain until Jan 1, 2027. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is No: no psychedelic NDA has a PDUFA date in 2026, and Compass had not finished its COMP360 NDA as of late September, when its CEO said the clinical module was still pending. (c) No scenario: Compass completes the NDA in November or December, FDA filing acceptance takes 2–8 weeks, and even a 44–61 day priority-voucher review pushes the decision into Q1 2027. That fits Compass's own H1 2027 launch guidance and its statement that it is not planning for acceleration. (d) Yes scenario: Compass submits the final module in October, FDA files it in about 2–3 weeks, and political pressure (EO 14401, Commissioner rhetoric, Jefferies calling for year-end approval) produces a fast review like the roughly 50-day Foundayo approval, with a letter in late December. A surprise fast action on the MDMA resubmission is a much smaller tail, since that package follows a CRL and has no new trial. The market sits at 22% (bid 17%), but the research shows a required sequence with almost no slack and no confirmed submission, so I shade below it to about 15%.
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 57.4s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.