Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $230 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026?

- [2026-07-22] Q2 2026 average passenger fare was $225.61, up from $186.65 in Q2 2025, a gain of about 21%. Passenger revenue was $7,745M, up 16.9%. Capacity was up only 0.2%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/southwest-airlines-luv-2q-2026-earnings.html (the $225.61 figure is also on https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/southwest-airlines-q2-2026-earnings-112123664.html) - [2026-07-29] The Octagon page for this market reports Q1 2026 average fare as $225.93 and the six-month figure as $225.76. It labels $225.93 as "fiscal 2026", but that is the Q1 figure, not a full-year figure. These are secondary figures. I did not see the fare line in the primary release (the fetched text omitted that section). The six-month figure is arithmetically consistent with Q1 and Q2 near $225.6–225.9. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/companies/kpis/southwest-airlines-average-passenger-fare-in-fiscal-2026 - [2026-07-22] The Q2 release set Q3 guidance of RASM up 17.5–19.5% year over year and capacity down 1% to flat. It said Q3 includes the headwind of lapping the 2025 bag-fee rollout. It gave no fare guidance. Guidance assumes the current fare environment and demand trends "remain broadly intact". https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000074/er-6302026xerdoc.htm - [2026-07-22] Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was cut to $3.25–4.25, from "at least $4.00". Capacity growth for the year is about 1.5%. CNBC says fuel costs rose after the Iran-war price spike. Airlines were said to be largely holding fare gains. https://www.swapa.org/news/2026/southwest-reports-record-second-quarter-revenue-as-operational-changes-continue/ - [2026-01-27 and 2026-04-09] Assigned and extra-legroom seating began on Jan 27, 2026. Checked-bag fees were raised on Apr 9, 2026 to $45 for the first bag and $55 for the second. Bag fees originally began May 28, 2025. These structural changes lift the average fare in H1 2026, and the 2025 comparison base is easier. https://deeparrival.com/airlines/southwest-airlines/baggage-fees/ - [2026-03-31] The Q1 10-Q says Q1 2026 passenger revenue rose 13.4%, driven by ancillary revenue from bag fees and assigned seating. RASM was 17.24 cents, up 11.2%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000092380/000009238026000047/luv-20260331.htm - [2026-10-14] Q3 2026 results are due Oct 21 after market close, with the call on Oct 22 at 10am ET. Zacks estimates Q3 passenger revenue up about 18.4% year over year. Consensus is EPS about $0.57 and revenue about $8.24B. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/southwest-airlines-report-q3-earnings-172100748.html - [2026-10-01] Southwest's own announcement confirms the Q3 release date of Oct 21 and the call on Oct 22. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/southwest-airlines-discuss-third-quarter-204000096.html - [2026-10-02] At a Morgan Stanley conference in early October, the CFO reportedly said fall revenues were beating expectations, supporting Q3 EPS guidance. This is a report from a secondary source. https://scanx.trade/stock-market-news/companies/southwest-airlines-q3fy26-results-earnings-call-set-october-22-2026/52433439 - [2026-07-29] Octagon showed sibling strikes on this same market as of late July. Above $225 was 84% and Above $230 was 44%, against the site's own model of 32.1%. Above $235 was 7%. These are stale snapshots from low-volume trading. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/companies/kpis/southwest-airlines-average-passenger-fare-in-fiscal-2026 - [Mechanics] The resolution source is the Q4 or full-year release, expected in late January 2027, well before the 2027-04-27 close. The full year is roughly Q1 about $226, Q2 about $225.6, and Q3 and Q4 still to come. Q3 will be disclosed on Oct 21. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000074/er-6302026xerdoc.htm BOTTOM LINE: H1 2026 averaged about $225.8, so a full-year figure above $230 needs H2 fares well above H1, and H2 comparisons against 2025 get tougher. Bag fees were already in place in H2 2025, and Q3 RASM guidance implies slowing year-over-year growth. The Oct 21 Q3 fare print is the key near-term data point. NOT FOUND: Q3 2026 actual average fare (not yet released). Any Southwest fare guidance for Q4 or the full year. The primary-source Q1 2026 average fare line, which I only saw via Octagon. The Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 average fare baselines.

- [2026-07-22] Q2 2026 average passenger fare was $225.61, against $186.65 a year earlier, up about 21%. H1 2026 fare was about $225.76 (Q1 $225.93). Q2 revenue passengers were 34.33M, down 3.3%. Sources: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000074/er-6302026xerdoc.htm and https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/southwest-airlines-luv-2q-2026-earnings-112123664.html (the $225.76 H1 figure is from an Octagon summary, not a primary source). - [2026-01-28] Reference class for the same metric: FY2025 average fare was $190.41 (FY2024 $178.40, +6.7%). Q4 2025 was $199.36 (Q4 2024 $184.81). This is the highest Q4 base in recent years. Reaching $230 for FY2026 needs about +20.8% on FY2025, roughly the same growth rate seen in Q2. Source: https://investors.southwest.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000092380-26-000002/er-12312025xerdoc.htm - [2026-07-22] Q3 2026 guidance: RASM up 17.5% to 19.5%, capacity down 1% to flat. Southwest expects this despite lapping the 2025 bag-fee launch. The guidance assumes "current fare environment and demand trends remain broadly intact." Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000074/er-6302026xerdoc.htm - [2026-07-22] Southwest gave no explicit fare guidance. FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance was cut to $3.25–$4.25 (previously at least $4.00), mainly on fuel costs. Planned 2026 capacity growth was lowered to about 1.5%. Sources: https://www.aol.com/articles/southwest-airlines-forecasts-third-quarter-201342000.html and https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/southwest-airlines-luv-2q-2026-earnings.html - [2026-10-18] Q3 2026 results are due after the close on 2026-10-21, with the call on 2026-10-22. Consensus is EPS of about $0.57 and revenue of about $8.24B. Estimates for revenue growth are the only available proxy; I found no fare consensus. Sources: https://investors.southwest.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1943/southwest-airlines-to-discuss-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-october-22-2026 and https://seekingalpha.com/news/4653822-southwest-airlines-q3-setup-guidance-faces-earnings-revision-test - [2026-10-18] Zacks estimates Q3 passenger revenue up 18.4% from Q3 2025. Capacity is flat to down 1% and passengers have been falling about 3%. That implies a Q3 fare of roughly +20% or more. Q3 2025 passenger revenue was $6.3B, but I did not retrieve the Q3 2025 fare. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/southwest-airlines-report-q3-earnings-172100748.html - [2026-10-18] My own arithmetic, not a sourced forecast: H1 passengers were about 63.5M at about $225.8. Assume Q3 is about $220–225 and Q4 is $232–240, with Q4 +16–20% on $199.36. The full-year average then comes out about $226–228. Reaching $230 would need roughly $240 or more in Q4. This is the most plausible YES path and it is not the base case. Source for inputs: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000074/er-6302026xerdoc.htm - [2026-09-16] The CFO said at the Morgan Stanley conference that bag and seat fees now exceed $2B a year. About 60% of passengers pay ancillaries, up from under 20% historically, and he said that share is "not a ceiling". Assigned and extra-legroom seating is expected to contribute more than $1B EBIT in 2026. Seating was only launched on 2026-01-27, so Q4 benefits fully, but that effect is already in the Q2 and Q3 run-rate. Source: https://www.travelerstoday.com/articles/61005/20260918/southwest-fees-reach-2-billion-what-you-will-pay-your-next-flight.htm - [2026-04-09] Bag fees were raised from $35/$45 to $45/$55 for tickets booked on or after 2026-04-09. This is a partial tailwind for Q3 and Q4 fare. Source: https://www.statesman.com/business/article/southwest-baggage-fees-2026-seating-changes-22195254.php - [2026-07-29] Octagon AI (a third-party forecaster with no track record I could verify) showed this same contract's price falling from 45% to 22% after Q2 results. Its model put the $205 strike at 95%, and it listed H1 fares above that. This is a stale sibling-strike data point. Source: https://www.octagonai.co/markets/companies/kpis/southwest-airlines-average-passenger-fare-in-fiscal-2026 - [2026-07-22] Historical year-over-year fare moves at Southwest were mostly low-to-mid single digits before 2025. Examples are Q3 2023 +2.6% and FY2025 +6.7%. A +20% jump is unprecedented, so there is no historical base rate for such a threshold; the reference class is the post-initiative run-rate. Sources: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238023000049/luv-20230930.htm and https://investors.southwest.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000092380-26-000004/luv-20251231.htm - [2026-07-22] Volume fell 3.3% while fare rose. Management also noted that fuel prices are volatile and that airlines are "largely holding onto fare gains". Fuel-driven capacity cuts could lift fares further, while a demand softening would pull them down. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/southwest-airlines-luv-2q-2026-earnings.html BOTTOM LINE: Southwest has run at about $225–226 for H1 2026. FY2026 clears $230 only if H2 averages about $234 or more, which needs a Q4 of roughly $240 (about +20% on $199.36) alongside a Q3 at or above about $223. That is plausible given Q3 RASM guidance and the ancillary ramp, but it sits modestly above the current run-rate, and the Q3 print on 2026-10-21 will be the key update. NOT FOUND: Q3 2025 average fare and passengers (it was not in the fetched excerpt). An analyst consensus for Q3 or Q4 2026 average fare. Any official FY2026 fare guidance. A track record for the third-party forecasters.

YES means: Southwest's full-year 2026 average passenger fare, as shown in the Q4/FY2026 earnings release (expected late Jan 2027), is above $230.00. - [2025-10-23] Primary-source baselines are now confirmed. Q3 2025 average fare was $182.56 (Q3 2024 $175.97, +3.7%), and the 9M 2025 figure was $187.36. Together with the Q1 2025 ($193.75), Q2 2025 ($186.65) and Q4 2025 ($199.36) figures, that fills the gap earlier reports flagged. The Q3 2025 base is the lowest of 2025, so Q3 2026 has the easiest comparison of the year. Q3 2025 passenger revenue was $6,313M, implying about 34.6M passengers. https://investors.southwest.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000092380-25-000140/luv-20250930.htm - [2026-10-18] Strongest YES path, from my own arithmetic and not a sourced forecast. Assume passengers of about 63.5M in H1 at about $225.8, about 33.6M in Q3 (down about 3%) and about 32M in Q4. Then each Q3 fare implies a Q4 fare needed for a full-year average above $230: | Q3 2026 fare | Q4 2026 fare needed | |---|---| | $223 | about $246 | | $226 | about $243 | | $230 | about $238 | The path therefore needs a Q3 print of at least about $226 and a Q4 of about $240 or more (+20% on $199.36). That is the same growth rate as Q2 (+21%) applied to the weakest-comparison quarter. Source for inputs: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000074/er-6302026xerdoc.htm - [2026-10-16] The Q3 fare can be bracketed from the Zacks estimate of passenger revenue up 18.4%. With flat-to-down capacity and passengers falling about 3% (per the Q2 trend), that implies a fare of about +21–22%, or $221–223. A +24% print would be $226. YES needs Q3 to come in above the Zacks-implied level. Consensus revenue is $8.24–8.26B. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/southwest-airlines-report-q3-earnings-172100748.html - [2026-07-22] Q2's reported revenue was depressed by a $285M breakage-reversal special item. Adjusted RASM rose 20.1% against 16.2% reported. The headline Q2 fare of $225.61 is therefore a reported figure, and the underlying adjusted run-rate was higher. Q3 RASM guidance of +17.5–19.5% is already "above" the reported Q2 trend after adjusting for the lapping headwind. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000074/er-6302026xerdoc.htm - [2026-07-22] Management said the Q2 release was the first full quarter with all initiatives in place. Its stated focus is "optimize our network, product offering, and pricing". Pricing optimisation after initiatives are complete is a lever the 2025 base year did not have. Managed business revenue was up 30%, which skews toward higher-fare close-in bookings. Seasonally, Q4 is stronger than Q3 in the 2025 data ($199 vs $183). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000074/er-6302026xerdoc.htm - [2026-10-16] Jet fuel is expensive: Q3 fuel was guided at about $3.70–3.75/gal, against about $2.41 in FY2025. Fuel-driven capacity discipline is the mechanism for fares above Q2 levels. FY capacity growth is only about 1.5%, with Q3 flat to down 1%. A Q4 capacity cut or fare increases to recover fuel could push Q4 fares above +20%. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9127896/southwest-airlines-luv-prepares-for-q3-earnings-amid-shifting-market-expectations - [2026-10-02 to 2026-10-08] Counter-evidence to weigh against this path. Southwest ran a 40%-off fare sale (book by Oct 8, travel Oct 26 to Mar 3) covering the Q4 and Q1 travel window. Sales dilute the Q4 average fare. https://www.pointsyeah.com/insider/airlines/southwest-flight-sale - [2026-10-18] Q4 2025 base context. Q4 2025 capacity was up about 6%, including 2 points from retrofit timing. Q4 2025 RASM guidance was only +1–3%, so $199.36 was a pre-seating, bag-fee-only base. Q1 2026 (the first quarter of assigned seating) showed 13.4% passenger revenue growth. Q4 2026 is the first Q4 with seats, bag fees at $45/$55, and a 60% ancillary-payer share, none of which Q4 2025 had in full. That makes a +20% or higher Q4 gain plausible. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238025000138/er-9302025xerdoc.htm - [2026-10-18] Octagon's Q3 fare market, a third-party site and snapshot only, showed a very high probability that Q3 stays above $185–190. It notes Southwest "does not expect to replicate" Q2's pricing power. Nothing I found says Q3 or Q4 fares will exceed $230. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/financials/companies/southwest-airlines-average-passenger-fare-in-q3 - [2026-10-21] Q3 results (after the close on Oct 21; call Oct 22) are the decisive checkpoint. For this path to remain alive, the Q3 fare should print at or above about $226 and management should signal Q4 RASM or yield near or above Q3's. A Q3 print around $220 would effectively require a Q4 of $250 or more. https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-21-southwest-airlines-co-stock/ BOTTOM LINE: The YES case needs H2 to average about $234–236, which is above the H1 run-rate of about $225.8. It rests on Q3 (easiest comparison, $182.56) printing about $226 or more and Q4 (first Q4 with all initiatives) printing about $240 or more. Everything I found points to Q3 near $221–223, which would require a Q4 of $245 or more. NOT FOUND: Q3 2026 actual fare (not yet released). Q4 2025 passenger count. Any fare guidance, or Q4 RASM guidance, for 2026. Any analyst fare consensus. A primary-source Q1 2026 fare line (the Q2 release fetch omitted the fare table).

YES means: Southwest's full-year 2026 average passenger fare, as shown in the Q4/FY2026 earnings release (expected late January 2027), is above $230.00. - [2026-10-18] The Q3 2025 base is $182.56, against $175.97 a year earlier. Q3 2025 passenger revenue was $6,313M, which implies about 34.6M passengers. FY2025 had 134.11M passengers, so Q4 2025 had about 34.0M (my arithmetic). The fetched Q3 2025 release and 10-Q confirm the $182.56 fare and $6.3B revenue. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238025000140/luv-20250930.htm - [2026-07-22] H1 2026 passenger revenue was $14,337M on 63.506M passengers, down 3.0%. Q1 passengers were 29.175M (63.506M less Q2's 34.331M), at about $225.9. The fetched Q2 release shows these figures. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/southwest-airlines-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-earnings-power-on-full-display-302832560.html - [2026-10-18] Deadline arithmetic, my own estimate and not a sourced forecast. Passengers are down about 3% year over year, which gives roughly 33.5M in Q3 and 33.0M in Q4, or about 130M for the year. A full-year fare above $230 needs about $29.9B of passenger revenue. That leaves about $15.6B for H2, or about $234 per passenger. The Zacks Q3 revenue estimate of +18.4% (Oct 14) gives Q3 about $7.47B, or about $223 per passenger. Q4 would then need about $8.1B, or about $245 per passenger, which is +23% on Q4 2025's $199.36. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/southwest-airlines-report-q3-earnings-172100748.html - [2026-10-18] The Q4 comparison base is much harder than Q3's. Q3 2025 passenger revenue grew only 1.0% and its fare grew 3.7%. Q4 2025 passenger revenue grew 7.6% (Jan 28 release), and its fare was already $199.36, up from $184.81. Q3 2026 growth of about 18% therefore does not carry over to Q4. If Q4 passenger revenue grows 14–16%, Q4 fare is about $235–239 and the full year is about $227–229 (my arithmetic), below $230. https://www.swamedia.com/vforcesite/SwmDownload?contentKey=MCZREZ3C3O6ZEXLJGBZLTPIV4TJM&siteId=0DMHu000000NZBROA4&boilerPlateContentKey=MCDIRMIT62VBDE7P3D2QZM7KMXLM - [2026-07-23] On the Q2 call, management said it assumed no escalation of revenue trends in Q4. Core RASM adjusted for lapping would be above Q2 levels. Bag fees account for about 2.5 points of Q3 RASM. The guide is built to be met without a Q4 acceleration. This is from a BigGo summary of the call. https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_LUV_2026-07-23 - [2026-07-22] A third-party summary of the Q2 call says Q3 was about 65% booked, with yields running about 24% year over year. Yield is not the same as average fare per passenger. Yield per RPM (fare divided by miles) can rise without fare per passenger rising as much. RPMs are up 1.2% while passengers are down 3.3%, so the average trip is getting longer. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/companies/kpis/southwest-airlines-average-passenger-fare-in-fiscal-2026 - [2026-10-18] Q4 is also the seasonally stronger quarter for fare. Its 2025 fare of $199.36 was above Q3's $182.56 and Q2's $186.65. That seasonality is already in my Q4 estimate of $235–239. Q1 2026 ($225.9) was at the Q2 level despite Q1 being a seasonally weak quarter, which suggests structural fees have been absorbed into the run-rate. https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/luv/kpis/average-passenger-fare - [2026-07-22] The 2026 full-year EPS guidance was cut to $3.25–4.25 on fuel costs. The Q3 EPS guide of $0.50–0.75 is below earlier consensus. Fuel at $3.70–3.75 per gallon pressures margins, and any fare response is not visible in guidance. Airlines are not guiding to fare rises. An aerohaber summary dated Oct 17 repeats the fuel figure. https://aerohaber.com/southwest-airlines-luv-prepares-for-q3-earnings-amid-shifting-market-expectations/ - [2026-10-18] Resolution technicality: the question asks for the annual figure in the FY or Q4 release. The release's year-to-date column shows the twelve-month figure, which is passenger revenue divided by revenue passengers. It is a passenger-weighted average. It is not a simple average of the quarters, and not an adjusted or "unit" metric. Because Q1 and Q2 have fewer passengers than the rest of the year, the high-priced H1 quarters get little extra weight. FY2025 reconciles this way: $190.41 for the year against quarters of $193.75, $186.65, $182.56 and $199.36. The nine-month 2025 figure of $187.36 is in the Q3 2025 release. https://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1901/southwest-airlines-reports-record-third-quarter-revenue-strong-execution-of-transformational-initiatives-continues - [2026-07-29] The Octagon page labels the Q1 figure, $225.93, as "fiscal 2026". That is a data-labelling quirk and does not create a YES by itself. The rules point to the full-year release, and the Q1 and H1 prints are below $230. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/companies/kpis/southwest-airlines-average-passenger-fare-in-fiscal-2026 - [2026-10-18] Status quo is NO. No quarter so far has printed at or above $230 (Q1 $225.93, Q2 $225.61), and the maximum is not yet known. To resolve YES, H2 must average about 3.7% above H1, which is above the Q3 pace implied by the Zacks estimate. Q3 on Oct 21 is the first checkpoint: a Q3 print of about $223 or below leaves Q4 needing about $245 or more. https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:ed65717ed094b:0-southwest-airlines-to-discuss-q3-earnings-what-s-in-the-cards/ BOTTOM LINE: The most likely full-year print is about $227–229. A YES needs Q3 above about $225 and Q4 around $240–245, which is more than +20% on a Q4 2025 base that was already strong. NO is the default unless the Oct 21 Q3 fare comes in clearly above about $225. NOT FOUND: Q3 2026 actual fare (due Oct 21). Q4 or FY2026 fare guidance. Q4 2025 passenger count from a primary table (derived by subtraction). A primary-source line for the Q1 2026 fare. The full Q2 release text, because the fetch omitted the middle of the page.