Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026? — Above 0.4%

- [2026-10-14] BLS: September CPI-U rose 0.6% SA, after +0.4% in August. The 12-month rate was 3.7% NSA. Gasoline rose 9.1% SA (+6.5% NSA). Core rose 0.3% and shelter 0.4%. Food was flat. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-14] BLS monthly headline CPI (SA) for 2026: Mar +0.9, Apr +0.6, May +0.5, Jun −0.4, Jul +0.1, Aug +0.4, Sep +0.6. Energy was +5.2% in September. Core CPI was +0.2 to +0.4 per month, with Jun at 0.0. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-12-10] Resolution source schedule: BLS lists November 2026 CPI for Thursday Dec 10 at 8:30 AM ET. October CPI comes out Nov 10. The schedule page was last modified Feb 2026, so a shutdown could shift dates. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - [2026-10-16] Cleveland Fed nowcast for October 2026: CPI +0.27% m/m, core +0.21%, 3.77% y/y. Q4 CPI is nowcast at 4.77% annualized. There is no November monthly nowcast yet. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-10-15] AAA: national regular gasoline averaged $4.33, versus $4.36 a week earlier, $4.33 a month earlier and $3.07 a year earlier. WTI settled at $95.09. Gasoline has been above $4 since late July. https://gasprices.aaa.com/gas-prices-not-budging-much-as-crude-oil-remains-high/ - [2026-10-16] Brent hit $110 on Friday, its first time that high since May 20. WTI topped $100 for the first time since Sep 21. The cause is the ongoing US-Iran conflict, now nearing eight months. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/6155062-brent-crude-hits-110/ - [2026-09-17] For comparison, AAA gasoline was $4.44 on Sep 17 with WTI at about $102. Pump prices were roughly flat from mid-Sept to mid-Oct, but crude has risen again in the last week. https://gasprices.aaa.com/pump-prices-keep-climbing-as-crude-oil-remains-high-2/ - [2026-10-14] Cleveland Fed median CPI was +0.2% in September and 16% trimmed mean was +0.3%. Underlying pressure is about 0.2–0.3% per month. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-cpi - [2026-10-13] The Fed hiked in September, its first hike since 2023. FOMC minutes signal another hike is likely before year-end. The next meetings are Oct 27-28 and Dec 9, the day before the November CPI release. https://www.investmentnews.com/equities/gas-prices-to-heat-up-cpi-but-core-inflation-holds-the-key-to-the-feds-october-call/268577 - [2026-10-17] A Substack nowcast (Navigator's Brief, not official) puts October's y/y rate at 4.16%, with an upward bias. It notes BLS will not publish October's 12-month change, because the October 2025 base month is missing. This is a secondary source. https://tiltmacro.substack.com/p/the-navigators-brief-10-17-2026 - [2026-10-14] Market read: the Bloomberg/WSJ consensus for September was +0.6%, which matched the actual print. Core was expected at 0.2% and came in at 0.3%. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-10/us-cpi-to-show-overall-inflation-boosted-by-higher-gasoline-prices - [2026-10-18] No November-month data exists yet. October CPI is the next hard data point (Nov 10). The resolution threshold is a single-decimal value, so ≥0.5% is needed for "above 0.4%". BOTTOM LINE: The most recent headline prints were hot (Aug +0.4, Sep +0.6), but they were driven by gasoline, and core is steady at 0.2–0.3%. Gasoline has been flat for a month at about $4.33, while crude has jumped back to $95–110 this week. Whether November prints at 0.5% or higher depends mostly on gasoline in Oct–Nov and on seasonal factors. NOT FOUND: A November 2026 monthly CPI nowcast or consensus; any prediction-market prices (not searched, per instructions); November gasoline price data; the BLS release PDF's detail on seasonal factors.

- [2026-10-14] BLS confirms September 2026 CPI-U rose 0.6% SA, after 0.4% in August. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month and energy rose 5.2%. Core rose 0.3%. The 12-month rate was 3.7%, up from 3.4%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm - [2026-10-14] The September print beat the consensus of about 3.6% y/y. Core y/y was 2.6% against 2.5% expected. Core m/m was 0.3% in both August and September. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733 - [2026-10-15] September PPI final demand rose 1.3% m/m, the largest since March 2022. Final demand energy rose 10.8%, and goods rose 2.6%. This suggests an energy-driven pipeline shock. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-16] The Cleveland Fed nowcast for October 2026 is 0.27% m/m CPI and 0.21% core, with Q4 CPI at 4.77% annualized. There is no November m/m nowcast yet. The Cleveland Fed says its nowcasts have historically beaten SPF medians. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-10-17] A private nowcast (Tilt Macro "BTT") has October headline at 4.16% y/y, with an upward bias. The October CPI is due Nov 10. BLS will not publish an October 12-month change, because the base month is missing after last year's shutdown. https://tiltmacro.substack.com/p/the-navigators-brief-10-17-2026 - [2026-10-12] Kalshi traders put just under a one-in-three chance on a new 2026 y/y high, above the 4.2% peak in May. Kalshi's September y/y call was 3.6%, in line with FactSet. The actual print was 3.7%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/inflation-will-remain-sticky-in-2026-according-to-prediction-markets.html - [2026-10-14] The November 2026 CPI is scheduled for Thursday, Dec 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, the same time the market closes. October's release is Nov 10. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-release-schedule/ - [2026-10-14] Reference class from the recent 2026 run: monthly SA prints above 0.4% are rare. August was 0.4%, which is not "above". September's 0.6% was called "the largest gain in five months", so the prior four months were 0.5% or below. May y/y peaked at 4.2%, and the energy shock has repeated. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi - [2026-10-14] Core CPI y/y is 2.6% and shelter is up 3.2% y/y. Core m/m has been 0.2–0.3%. Headline above 0.4% (that is, 0.5% or higher) therefore needs energy or food to add about 0.2pp or more. Gasoline is up 34% y/y. https://tiltmacro.substack.com/p/the-navigators-brief-10-17-2026 - [2026-10-17] Markets put the odds of a Fed rate hike at the Oct 27–28 meeting at about 17%. This is a hawkish backdrop, but the November outcome depends mainly on gasoline. https://finance.biggo.com/news/638b986e-4e27-4bee-9623-997decae9dcb - [2026-10-14] Long-run base rate (from general knowledge, not fetched): in 2010–2019, SA headline CPI m/m was 0.5% or higher in only a small minority of months, roughly under 10%. In 2021–23 it was far more common, at about 30–40%. Under today's conditions (core ~0.25%, energy volatile), a print of 0.5% or more needs a further energy jump. November also has a seasonal-factor quirk, and shutdown-related data gaps affect last year's base only. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view puts a headline print of 0.5% or higher (rounded single decimal, strictly above 0.4%) in the minority tail. Core is running about 0.2–0.3%, and the October nowcast is only about 0.3%. The upside risk is a fresh energy spike like September's 0.6% print, and gasoline direction in October and November is the key swing factor. NOT FOUND: A November 2026 m/m consensus or nowcast (too early; the Cleveland Fed lists only October). A verified month-by-month 2026 headline m/m series for Jan–Jul. A computed long-run frequency of CPI m/m above 0.4% (the base rate above comes from memory).

YES means: the BLS headline CPI-U seasonally adjusted change for November 2026 (released Dec 10) is published as 0.5% or higher. A print of 0.4% or lower resolves No. - [2026-10-06] The EIA October STEO raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $105/b, $14 above the September outlook. It cites ongoing Gulf supply constraints and extreme diesel tightness. The forecast was completed Oct 1, before the Oct 2 G7 announcement and before the Oct 16 crude spike. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ - [2026-10-16] Brent settled at $109.86 and WTI at $101.41. WTI gained more than 10% on the week as Iran escalated attacks in Hormuz. Hormuz crude exports fell to about 70% of the pre-war level after touching pre-war levels in September. The September "recovery" that EIA assumed is reversing. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/oil-price-today-iran-strait-hormuz-ukraine-russia.html - [2026-10-16] AAA diesel was $6.33/gal, more than 70% above a year earlier. This adds to the freight and transport cost pipeline beyond the pump. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/oil-price-today-iran-strait-hormuz-ukraine-russia.html - [2026-10-10] The IEA says Brent rose 13% from the start of September to about $107. It also says record tanker rates are eroding refinery margins and that product availability is restricted. That is a mechanism for retail gasoline to rise even when crude is flat. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026 - [2026-10-06] EIA's STEO table has retail gasoline at $4.21 in Q2, $4.11 in the next month and $4.15 after that. The table shows a forecast path of $3.71, then $3.76, then $3.56 for later months. Its own forecast assumes the pump price falls from $4.35, so a YES path requires the forecast to be wrong on the upside. Because crude rose after the EIA's Oct 1 cutoff, the risk to that forecast is skewed up. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-10-16] RBOB Nov futures closed at about $3.24/gal. That is only a modest wholesale margin over pump prices, and RBOB fell 1.8% on the week even as crude rose. The pump-price link from crude is therefore not automatic, but the wholesale-to-retail gap suggests little room for pump prices to drop. https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/hormuz-mines-russian-refinery-fires-and-a-25-gas-gap-what-moved-your-fuel-bill-this-week/ - [2026-10-14] Pass-through of gasoline to the CPI is large. Gasoline's 9.1% rise in September accounted for over half of the 0.6% headline gain, and energy rose 5.2% after +2.1% in August. Core was 0.3% in both Aug and Sep, with shelter at 0.4%. If core runs 0.3% and food 0.2%, gasoline needs only about +4–5% SA in November to reach 0.5% headline. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - [2026-10-14] The CPI release shows 12-month energy at +20.4% and food at +2.5%. Food was flat in September, with food at home at −0.1%. Food has room to rebound, and diesel at $6.33 feeds food costs. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - [2026-10-12] Fed research finds that tariffs' effect on goods inflation (2.9pp in February) peaks and fades, and it does not turn up again until mid-2027. That is a headwind for core goods and argues against a core-driven YES. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/size-and-speed-tariff-pass-through-consumer-prices - [2026-08-28] The Minneapolis Fed estimates that tariffs contributed 0.2–0.4pp to core inflation as of July. It also finds AI-related technology prices are rising fast. Core PCE is at 3.3% y/y. Core CPI at 2.6% y/y understates the pressure, and the upside tail for core is real. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/initially-delayed-the-pass-through-of-tariffs-to-consumer-prices-has-arrived - [2026-10-14] A commentary notes the Oct–Nov 2025 base is distorted by last year's shutdown (October 2025 missing, November 2025 built on odd assumptions). That distortion affects y/y comparisons. It does not directly affect the Nov 2026 m/m SA print, but it may add noise to the BLS November index and its seasonal factors. https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar/78-us-cpi-mm - [2026-10-14] Earlier in 2026, gasoline CPI SA rose 21.2% in March, 5.4% in April and 7.0% in May. Energy-led headline prints of 0.5% or higher came in clusters (Mar, Apr, May, Sep). That shows that once crude jumps, several large monthly prints can follow. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06102026.htm BOTTOM LINE: The most likely path to YES is a renewed Hormuz/diesel-driven crude and refined-product spike in late October through November, which lifts retail gasoline by about 4% or more SA while core runs at 0.3% and food rebounds. Crude rose more than 10% in the week to Oct 16, after the EIA's forecast cutoff. The October nowcast of 0.27% and the EIA's expectation of falling pump prices both work against this path. NOT FOUND: a November monthly CPI nowcast or consensus; November gasoline data; the seasonal factors BLS will apply to November gasoline; and any estimate of how the shutdown distortion affects November's seasonal adjustment.

YES means: BLS reports the November 2026 CPI-U, seasonally adjusted, up 0.5% or more (a single-decimal value strictly above 0.4%). It is published Dec 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. - [2026-10-06] The EIA October STEO, finalized Oct 1, expects October retail gasoline "about the same" as September's $4.35, then a slow decline. Its monthly table puts regular gasoline at about $4.21 in 3Q26, $4.11 and $4.15 in the next two quarterly columns, and then $3.71 in the following one. A flat or falling pump price in October–November gives no gasoline-driven jump in November. The STEO ran before the Oct 16 crude spike, so that caveat cuts against this point. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ - [2026-10-06] The EIA expects Middle East flows to rise through 4Q26 via Hormuz convoys, bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers. It said September shut-in production was the lowest since hostilities began. Its 4Q26 Brent forecast is $105, and Brent settled at $109.86 on Oct 16. That is only about 5% above the forecast, so the current spike is not far outside the baseline. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ - [2026-10-16] Retail gasoline has run $4.33 to $4.48 since late September. It fell from $4.48 (Sep 28) to $4.33 after the G7 SPR release. The pump price lags crude by roughly 1–2 weeks. A repeat of September's 9.1% rise would need roughly $4.70 or more on average in November. A GEF scenario model puts the Dec base case at $4.60 and escalation at $6.10, but its weights are the author's judgement, not a probabilistic model. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-14] The BLS Sep release shows the energy index at +10.9 (Mar), +3.8, +3.9, −5.7, −1.5, +2.1 and +5.2 (Sep), and gasoline +21.2, +5.4, +7.0, −9.7, −2.9, +3.9 and +9.1. Gasoline has climbed only in bursts, and a monthly gasoline gain above 7% has happened just three times since March. Energy shocks have also reversed (June −9.7% on gasoline). Mean reversion after a +9.1% month is plausible. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-14] Core rose 0.3% and shelter 0.4% in September, with the rest of the core mix in recreation, used cars, airfares and apparel. Food was flat and food at home fell 0.1%. Core therefore rises about 0.2–0.3%, and a 0.5% headline needs gasoline up roughly 4% or more plus some food or other lift. The same release shows no sign that food or core pushes headline above 0.4 on its own. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-09] Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the midterms and cited "productive" talks. He also mulled suspending the federal gasoline tax and teased a diesel announcement. China is resuming refined fuel exports. Several of these could cap or lower November pump prices. A federal gas-tax holiday, if enacted, would cut the CPI gasoline index directly. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/oil-falls-as-trump-comments-on-iran-talks-ease-supply-concerns.html - [2026-10-12] Crude was volatile in October. Brent was $104.5 on Oct 9 and $103.18 on Oct 12, after $109.86 on Oct 16. It is range-bound in the high $90s to $110 since late July, with no new break higher. The Hormuz risk is two-sided: a 7-day Iranian peace plan is on the table. https://iranwire.com/en/news/158769-oil-prices-drop-following-trumps-claims-of-energy-ceasefire/ - [2026-10-18] BLS CPI seasonal factors are re-estimated each February, so the November factor for gasoline is known and cannot be a surprise. Historically November has had a seasonal-factor offset for gasoline: in Nov 2024 SA gasoline was +0.6 while NSA prices were lower, and in Nov 2023 SA gasoline was −6.0. The seasonal quirk is not a reliable upside source. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12112024.htm - [2026-10-14] BLS shows the Nov 2025 base is a single missing month (Oct 2025 uncollected, Nov 2025 NSA change "–"). This does not affect November 2026's m/m change, which uses Oct 2026 as its base. So there is no base-month technicality that could add upside to the resolving number. The Oct 2026 CPI (Nov 10) is a normal release. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf - [2026-10-14] A Wichita Liberty write-up of the Sep CPI says gasoline's easing from $4.41 (Oct 1) to $4.33 (Oct 14) makes a big October energy drop unlikely, which implies no further big rise either. Markets still price a Fed hike in December. This implies hawkish policy, but hikes do not move November's prices. https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/september-2026-cpi-report/ - [2026-10-16] The Cleveland Fed's October nowcast is +0.27% m/m. If October prints near that, a 0.5% November needs about 0.2 pp more than that in energy. The two prints since the June dip are at 0.4 and 0.6, and the 0.4% was not "above." A 0.5+ print is therefore the tail, and the status quo of a flat pump price points to 0.2–0.4. Source for the nowcast is already cited in the prior reports. BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on flat pump prices (about $4.33), EIA's forecast of a slow decline, core at about 0.2–0.3%, and the need for a 0.5% or higher print. That would take another large gasoline jump in November on top of September's. The main risk to this view is the Oct 16 crude spike, which has not yet passed through to pump prices. NOT FOUND: A November m/m consensus or nowcast, the exact 2026 November seasonal factor for gasoline, the EIA weekly pump data for Oct 12–18, and any gas-tax suspension enacted by law.