Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

- [2026-10-16] The latest daily elevation I found is 3,520.02 ft. It rose 0.23 ft that day, from 3,519.79 on Oct 15. Reservoir inflow was 13,877 cfs and outflow 6,642 cfs. This comes from the USBR-based lakepowell.water-data.com, which is the secondary source named in the rules. I did not read the USBR RISE series directly. https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ - [2026-10-16] Elevation was 3,518.88 ft on Oct 11 and has risen about 1.1 ft since. The 3,516.62 ft record low on Sept 15 is 3.40 ft below the current level. It is the lowest since the reservoir first filled and is still 6.62 ft above 3,510. https://reservoirbench.com/lake-powell/ - [2026-09-15] Powell hit its record low of 3,516.62 ft on Sept 15, per daily data that match USBR. NASA says the lake first set a record low on Aug 15 and kept falling into early September. The market window opened Aug 17, so the minimum so far in the window is about 3,516.62 ft, which is above 3,510. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/lake-powell-drops-to-record-low-levels/ - [2026-10-15] Reclamation's Glen Canyon Dam page, updated Oct 15, gives the end-of-September elevation as 3,518.08 ft (5.16 maf, 22% of live capacity). September unregulated inflow was 353 kaf (102% of average), and September release was 470 kaf. https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html - [2026-10-15] The same page still says Powell is "projected to decline below 3,510 feet" during water year 2027. That wording comes from the August 2026 24-Month Study and has been carried forward. https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html - [2026-10-15] Reclamation says WY2027 operations fall in the "Low Elevation Infrastructure Protection Range", under the new 2027-2028 Operating Guidelines. The expected release is 6.00–7.00 maf and may fall outside that range after consultation. The October 2026 release is planned at 401 kaf, and the November volume will be set late in October. https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html - [2026-10-01] The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center's Oct 1 forecast puts WY2027 median unregulated inflow at 7.80 maf (81% of average). Another Reclamation page, dated Sep 1, put WY2026 inflow at 3.52 maf (37% of average). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html - [2026-09-15] The September 24-Month Study Most Probable run projects Powell at 3,513.51 ft on Dec 31, 2026. Its lowest projected month-end value is 3,511.43 ft on Feb 28, 2027. Month-end values can understate the lowest daily reading. The figures are as transcribed by a third-party site, and I did not confirm them against the USBR PDF. https://reservoirbench.com/projections/ - [2026-09-15] Per the same third-party transcription, the September Probable Minimum run has Powell at 3,511.82 ft on Dec 31, 2026. It falls below 3,490 ft only at the end of September 2027, which is after this market closes. https://reservoirbench.com/projections/ - [2026-10-15] The October 2026 24-Month Study was published Oct 15, with Most Probable and Probable Minimum runs. I could not read its Powell elevation table, so I have no October-vintage minimum-elevation projection. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo_MIN.pdf - [2026-04-17] The Flaming Gorge drought-response releases are meant to run through April 2027, in the range of 660 kaf to 1 maf. Powell's WY2026 release was cut from 7.48 maf to 6.0 maf. Reclamation said these actions should raise Powell about 54 ft, to at least 3,500 ft by April 2027. That target is below 3,510. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/5326 https://county17.com/2026/04/20/feds-order-flaming-gorge-drop-to-save-imperiled-lake-powell-from-potential-structural-failure/ - [2026-12 to 2027-03] Reclamation has not published a schedule of events. Upcoming items are the monthly 24-Month Studies (November through March) and the 2027 Annual Operating Plan, which is in development. The Nov 2026 release directive is due late October. Reclamation said the lake typically bottoms out in winter. Reclamation's probable-minimum runs are produced in January and April, and the Jan 2027 run falls inside the window. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo_6.pdf BOTTOM LINE: Powell is at about 3,520 ft and rising slightly in October on the seasonal low point and Flaming Gorge support, and the minimum so far in the window is about 3,516.62 ft. Reclamation's official projections still show it falling below 3,510 ft during WY2027, though the lowest Most Probable month-end value (3,511.43 ft, Feb 2027) is only about 1.4 ft below the 3,510 line. NOT FOUND: the October 2026 24-Month Study's Powell elevation table (Most Probable or Probable Minimum); the USBR RISE data.usbr.gov series 508 read directly; any announced change to the WY2027 release volume or Flaming Gorge schedule in the last 14 days.

- [2026-10-16] Lake Powell was at 3,520.02 ft, 3.40 ft above its record low of 3,516.62 ft, set 2026-09-15. It had risen 1.05 ft over the prior week. The Sept 15 low is the lowest since the reservoir filled. This is a third-party compilation of USBR gauge data, not the USBR catalog item itself. https://reservoirbench.com/lake-powell/ - [2026-10-15] The October 2026 24-Month Study Probable Minimum run (inflow exceeded 90% of the time) assumes 6.00 maf released in WY2027 and WY2028 and WY2027 unregulated inflow of 4.07 maf (42% of average). It puts Powell at 3,497.03 ft on 2027-09-30. The fetched PDF omitted the monthly table, so I could not confirm the elevations for Dec 2026 through Mar 2027. The October Most Probable study was not retrieved. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo_MIN.pdf - [2026-09-15] The September 2026 Most Probable study (6 maf release) projects 3,513.51 ft on 2026-12-31. Its lowest month-end is 3,511.43 ft on 2027-02-28, only about 1.4 ft above 3,510. Month-end values are not daily minima. A daily low could be lower, and the modeled path could shift either way. https://reservoirbench.com/lake-powell/ - [2026-09-15] The September Probable Minimum run (as transcribed by a secondary site) has Powell at 3,511.82 ft on 2026-12-31. A news report of the same run puts it at about 3,503 ft by April 2027, and below the 3,490 ft minimum power pool by September 2027. https://reservoirbench.com/projections/ ; https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/73388/20260929/lake-powell-sits-about-28-feet-above-level-where-glen-canyon-dam-stops-generating-power.htm - [2026-09-15] The USBR September study says the August study projected Powell to decline below 3,510 ft during WY2027. WY2027 runs 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, so this projection extends past the market window. The same statement appears on the Glen Canyon Dam operations page. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo_6.pdf ; https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html - [2026-08-22] The August studies released 2026-08-21 model Powell releases of 6 maf or 7 maf for WY2027, within the 2027-28 Operating Guidelines range of 6–7 maf. Powell would be operated in the "Low Elevation Infrastructure Protection Range", and Reclamation says the release could fall outside the 6–7 maf range after consultation. A Flaming Gorge drought-response release of up to 1 maf is assumed. https://www.western-water.com/2026/08/22/lake-powell-faces-low-elevation-operations-in-2027/ - [2026-05-08] The April–July 2026 inflow forecast was 13% of average, the lowest since the dam was built, after record-low snowpack. Reclamation said it would cut Powell's releases. This sets the outside-view baseline: a very dry year has already happened, and the Oct 1 starting point is near the record low. https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/may/08/lake-powell-runoff-to-hit-record-low-putting-wests/ - [2026-09-29] Reclamation is moving 660 kaf to 1 maf from Flaming Gorge to Powell through April 2027. This reduces Powell's release to Mead by 1.48 maf, per a July report. Managers say the aim is to keep Powell above 3,500 ft. https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/73388/20260929/lake-powell-sits-about-28-feet-above-level-where-glen-canyon-dam-stops-generating-power.htm ; https://www.discovermagazine.com/lake-powell-water-levels-critically-low-after-record-low-snowpack-and-persistent-drought-in-the-u-s-49349 - [2026-09-29] One secondary article calls 3,510 ft Interior's operating target to protect hydropower, with 3,490 ft as minimum power pool. A Tucson.com report from earlier in 2026 cites 3,500 ft as the bureau's pledged floor. The two sources disagree on the floor, and I found no primary text of the policy. https://www.intelligentliving.co/lake-powell-record-low-reservoir-still/ ; https://tucson.com/news/local/environment/article_02baf164-f1ec-4ed4-9052-3fa4d2fa88f5.html - [2026-10-15] Seasonality: Powell normally bottoms in late winter or early spring (the 2023 record low was 2023-04-13) and rises with runoff from about April. A drop from 3,520 to below 3,510 needs roughly 10 ft, about 580 kaf of net loss, since a foot is about 57,600 af. Note the lake is rising in October with reduced releases, and the Most Probable path declines only about 8–9 ft through February. https://www.lakepowellwaterlevel.com/blog/how-much-does-snowpack-raise-lake-powell ; https://reservoirbench.com/lake-powell/ - [Historical] Powell has never been below 3,516.62 ft since filling, so no historical analog exists for a 3,510 breach. The reference class is the 24-Month Study Probable Minimum and Most Probable runs. Their record this year was biased high: a May study had projected the end of WY2026 at about 3,510.85 ft, and the actual end-September level was about 3,517–3,518 ft. A June study had projected about 3,505 ft at end of 2026, against the current Dec path of about 3,513. https://www.lakepowellwaterlevel.com/blog/how-low-is-lake-powell ; https://www.lakepowellwaterlevel.com/blog/when-will-lake-powell-reach-dead-pool - [2026-09-15] The September Most Probable run (the median) has the Feb 2027 month-end at about 3,511.4 ft. Even the dry Probable Minimum run gives about 3,503 ft by April, with the Dec value about 3,511.8 ft. So the modeled central path sits only about 1.4 ft above 3,510, while the dry path breaches by spring. https://reservoirbench.com/projections/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is a near coin-flip on the central path. The Most Probable run has the winter low only about 1.4 ft above 3,510 and the dry run goes below it, with Powell at 3,520 ft now. There is no historical analog for a breach, and Reclamation can still change releases and Flaming Gorge flows to defend the floor. Powell's winter low usually comes in March–April, inside the window, and dry-run projections show the breach before 2027-03-31. NOT FOUND: the October 2026 Most Probable study monthly table. The USBR daily series (data.usbr.gov catalog item 508) itself. Any prediction-market or expert-poll odds for the 3,510 threshold. The primary text of any Interior/Reclamation commitment to hold Powell at 3,510 ft or 3,500 ft.

YES means: Lake Powell's lowest daily USBR elevation from market creation (2026-08-17) through 2027-03-31 never falls below 3,510.00 ft. - [2026-10-16] The lake is at 3,520.02 ft, 1.68 ft above the water-year low, and "Last within 2 inches" of this level on Aug 15. Inflow runs well above outflow. Over the 14 readings from Oct 3 to Oct 16 the lake is up 1.23 ft. Daily outflow is steady at about 6,500–6,650 cfs, and the Oct 15 inflow spike was 21,407 cfs. This is the October releases rate already reflected in the Oct 15 release plan. https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ - [2026-10-16] YES prerequisite: the lake must lose about 10 ft from here. The Oct 15 inflow, 6,642 cfs release and Oct rise show the winter drawdown has not started. Reclamation's own Most Probable path puts the lowest month-end at 3,511.43 ft in Feb 2027. YES needs only about 1.4 ft of outperformance against that path, plus a daily low no deeper than the month-end values. https://reservoirbench.com/projections/ - [2026-10-15] Reclamation's Probable Minimum run, with inflow exceeded 90% of the time, only reaches 3,497.03 ft on 2027-09-30. That date is well after this market closes. A 90%-exceedance dry run hitting its low only in September, after the window, implies the below-3,510 path may come late. The fetched text did not include the monthly table. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo_MIN.pdf - [2026-08-11] YES lever, a rule-based release cut. Appendix T of the FEIS lets Powell releases drop to 6.0 maf if the lake is projected below 3,510 ft. After consultation, it allows as low as 5.0 maf if projected below 3,500 ft. The 24-Month Studies already assume only 6 maf. A cut to 5 maf would save about 1 maf (about 17 ft of elevation at 57,600 af per ft) against the 6 maf plan, though that saving accrues over the full water year, not the window. This is a law-firm summary of the FEIS, not the FEIS text. https://www.swlaw.com/publication/reclamations-post-2026-colorado-river-plan-puts-utah-water-energy-and-development-planning-in-focus/ - [2026-08-21] The August study set the WY2027 release at 6.00–7.00 maf, and it "may be outside of the identified range" after consultation. This is the formal hook for a sub-6 maf release. Reclamation also states it will "consider all tools" to avoid Powell falling below 3,500 ft. That commitment was in the 2026 studies (the July 2026 study text). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_08_ucb.pdf - [2026-07-15] Reclamation has already shown willingness to shift monthly volumes to hold elevations. It cut Dec 2025–Apr 2026 releases by 0.598 maf to protect a 3,525 ft target. The same tool can shift Dec 2026–Mar 2027 releases into later months, which is the exact window of this market. This is a precedent for making winter-specific cuts. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo.pdf - [2026-07-15] The July 24-Month Study's Flaming Gorge power table shows a steady winter release schedule through Winter 2027. Upper Basin power at Flaming Gorge is about 38–42 GWh/month from Oct 2026 to Mar 2027, versus about 18–19 GWh/month in the Oct 2025–Mar 2026 winter. That is consistent with drought-response flow support continuing through the window, though power is only a proxy. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo.pdf - [2026-06-17] Reclamation's forecasts have been biased low (too pessimistic) this year. The June study projected 3,498 ft by Jan 2027 and 3,488 ft by Mar 2027. The Sept study now has about 3,513.5 ft at Dec 31 (colleagues' note) and a Feb low of 3,511.4 ft. This is roughly a 15 ft improvement on the Jan 2027 path in three months. A similar drift would keep Powell above 3,510. https://www.western-water.com/2026/06/17/lake-powell-faces-power-loss-by-spring-2027/ - [2026-09-29] The Sept study's Most Probable run shows rises: Powell reaches 3,558.44 ft by June 2028, and a 7 maf release still has Powell at 3,515.35 ft on Dec 31, 2027. The 6 maf baseline is therefore the more favourable path for Powell, and the 3,510 breach is a shallow, temporary dip in the central case. https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-images-show-how-lake-powell-has-drained-to-record-low-in-9-years-12463270 - [2026-10-18] Third-party daily series agree with the water-data.com figures: Oct 14 at 3,519.31 ft and Oct 1 at 3,518.34 ft. This corroborates the USBR-sourced rise of about 1.7 ft since Oct 1 on several independent sites. https://www.lakepowellwaterlevel.com/day/2026-10-14 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is that the lake stays near 3,520 ft in the fall and early winter. Reclamation then uses the 6 maf or lower release authority, with monthly volume shifts and sustained Flaming Gorge support, to hold the Feb–Mar low at or above about 3,510 ft. The Most Probable low of 3,511.4 ft already sits above the line, and this year's studies have repeatedly been too pessimistic. NOT FOUND: the October 2026 Most Probable monthly Powell elevations (the Oct 15 PDF only returned July data); a primary Reclamation statement that 3,510 ft will be actively defended; any announced WY2027 release below 6 maf; the Nov 2026 monthly release directive.

YES means: Lake Powell's lowest daily elevation (USBR, Glen Canyon Dam) from Aug 17, 2026 to Mar 31, 2027 stays at or above 3,510.00 ft. NO means any daily reading falls below 3,510.00 ft in that window. - [2026-10-12] Reclamation's weekly update shows Powell at 3,519.00 ft, which is 9 ft above the line. The same table lists the end-of-calendar-2026 projection as 3,513.51 ft, taken from the September study. It shows "-0.45" under "Change Since Previous 24-Month Study". I read that as a small adverse deviation, but the column is ambiguous. The weekly update also records observed WY2027 unregulated inflow to date as 39% of normal. Watch the next weekly updates for whether the Oct 15 study moved the Dec path lower. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/weekly.pdf - [2026-10-15] The Oct 15 Probable Minimum study keeps a 6.00 maf Glen Canyon release for both WY2027 and WY2028. It ends WY2027 at 3,497.03 ft, so Reclamation's own dry case is about 13 ft under the strike. The Oct 1 CBRFC median is 7.8 maf. The Probable Minimum inflow is 4.07 maf. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo_MIN.pdf - [2026-08-21] The August 24-Month Study put Powell at 3,519.36 ft on Aug 20. It has since fallen to a 3,516.62 ft low and recovered. The study said Powell would drop below 3,510 ft in WY2027, and that wording is still posted on Reclamation's Oct 15 operations page. Each month's study since August has carried the same statement, so Reclamation's official line is a projected breach. The strike is 10 ft below today's level, which is about 580 kaf. https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_08_ucb.pdf - [2026-09-30] The September Most Probable run is the one Newsweek covers, and it also shows Powell rising to about 3,542 ft by June 2027. That is after Mar 31, so spring runoff does not help the "Yes" case inside the window. The winter decline to roughly 3,511 ft in Feb comes first. The September run's low month-end value is only about 1.4 ft above the line. A daily low in Feb–Mar could cross it on a small error. Examples are inflow below forecast, a higher release, or a Flaming Gorge shortfall. https://www.newsweek.com/lake-mead-water-levels-projected-sharply-drop-lake-powell-benefits-12455193 - [2026-10-16] The recent rise is driven by low outflow of about 6,640 cfs and higher inflow of 13,877 cfs. That is mostly Flaming Gorge pass-through and seasonal timing. It is not a trend that holds through winter. Reclamation's Oct 15 operations page says the October release is 401 kaf. Winter power-demand months normally carry heavier releases, and the November volume is not yet set. Inflow falls into the winter base-flow season. The Oct 2025 study shows the usual pattern: the lake's own monthly storage content tracks release timing. https://lakepowelldata.com/ - [2026-07-17] The Hill reported a Reclamation study putting Powell just under 3,492 ft at end of March 2027. That was a pre-Flaming Gorge-effect, earlier-vintage projection and is stale. It shows how recently official most-probable paths sat 18 ft below the strike. The forecasting error has run against the model in both directions, so an error of 1.4 ft is well inside the historical miss. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5974862-bureau-reclamation-projects-reservoir-decline/ - [2026-04-17] Reclamation's stated goal is only "at least 3,500 ft by April 2027". Its release target for Flaming Gorge is "660 kaf to 1 maf". The 3,500 ft floor is 10 ft under the strike, so Reclamation's own policy objective is consistent with a daily low in the 3,500–3,510 band. I found no commitment to defend 3,510 ft. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/5326 - [2026-04-21] Utah and Wyoming officials said the Flaming Gorge release is effectively a one-time draw and may not be repeated if the next year is dry. WY2027 inflow is still unknown, with an August range of 3.6–14.3 maf. The winter snowpack is not yet built and nothing in Oct–Mar is certain to arrive. For "Yes" to hold, the median or better inflow outcome must materialize. https://www.ksjd.org/2026-04-21/lake-powell-drought-emergency-releases-colorado-river - [2026-10-16] The daily USGS gauge reads about 2.6 ft higher than the Reclamation-based series. USGS gave 3,522.60 ft against 3,520.02 ft on Reclamation-based sites, a NAVD88 datum offset. The market resolves on USBR item 508 only and on data as of Apr 15, 2027, so the USBR figure is the relevant one. It is the lower of the two readings. https://lakebrief.com/lake/lake-powell/water - [2026-10-15] The "lowest daily reading as of April 15, 2027" language means any provisional daily dip in the window counts. Revisions after that date are ignored. Only one reading below 3,510.00 is needed, so the question is a minimum, not an average or end-of-month. The window is Aug 17 to Mar 31, which is 5.5 months of winter drawdown. A late-March low is typical, as in the 2023 low on Apr 13, and an Apr 1–15 reading is outside the window. https://lakepowellwaterlevel.com/blog/is-lake-powell-rising - [2026-06] A June study had Powell near 3,505 ft at end of 2026, which was a "No" path. The actual level is 3,520 ft now, so those projections were too pessimistic. That cuts against "No" and I mention it for balance. The track record is one of large changes between monthly studies. A single reading 10 ft below is within that range. https://www.lakepowellwaterlevel.com/blog/when-will-lake-powell-reach-dead-pool BOTTOM LINE: The strongest "No" case rests on Reclamation's official projection, repeated through Oct 15, that Powell falls below 3,510 ft in WY2027. Its Most Probable winter low is only about 1.4 ft above the line, its dry case ends about 13 ft below, and the Flaming Gorge draw is a one-time action. A single provisional daily reading under 3,510.00 in the USBR series settles the market. NOT FOUND: the Oct 2026 Most Probable study's monthly elevations, USBR RISE item 508 read directly, and the Nov 2026 release directive. I also found no Interior commitment to defend 3,510 ft specifically.