Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

- [2026-10-18] The agi.safe.ai static HTML shows only a legacy table dated to the April 2025 dataset. It lists Gemini 3 Pro at 38.3% HLE accuracy and no Gemini 4 or 3.x Pro entries. The "AI Progress on HLE" chart loads dynamically and its data did not render in my fetch. I could not confirm which Gemini models the chart currently shows. https://agi.safe.ai/ - [2026-09-22] The agi.safe.ai news banner says HLE-Diamond was released on 2026-09-22. It is meant as a migration path once frontier AI nears the noise ceiling on the original HLE. https://agi.safe.ai/ - [2026-10-13] Google's Gemini app release notes list "Gemini 4 Argon", a new frontier model, rolling out to AI Pro and Ultra subscribers. The notes do not call it "Pro". https://gemini.google/release-notes/ - [2026-09-30] Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, reported as the first Gemini with a codename instead of a Pro/Flash tier. Initial access was limited to Fairwind cyber defenders. Reports say API GA (`gemini-4-argon`) came on 2026-10-13. Secondary sources only: https://neuraltrust.ai/blog/gemini-4-argon and https://worcco.com/blog/gemini-4-argon-vs-gemini-3-5-pro - [2026-10-14] Naming is the key uncertainty. A commentator found no announced "Gemini 4 Pro" and said the name is only a guess. Another source says "Pro" is community shorthand for Argon, with no separate Pro model ID. The market requires a model "labeled as Pro", so Argon may not qualify. https://getneotiler.com/blog/gemini-3-1-pro-vs-gemini-4-argon-the-comparison-google-never-made/ and https://ahmetbalaman.com/en/blog/what-is-gemini-4-pro-argon-en/ - [2026-09-22] Artificial Analysis HLE figures (text-only subset), as shown on Wikipedia: Claude Opus 5.5 61.4, Gemini 4 Argon 57.1, GPT-6 Astra 54.7. I have not seen these on agi.safe.ai itself. This is not Google's own number and not the site's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanity%27s_Last_Exam - [2026-10-07] Gemini 3.5 Pro was never released. It was announced at I/O on 2026-05-19, then delayed repeatedly. The latest official wording, from the 2026-07-21 blog, says it is "testing with partners". As of 2026-10-07 the newest Pro on the API list was gemini-3.1-pro-preview. One source calls it effectively cancelled. https://qcode.cc/en/gemini-3-5-pro-guide - [2026-02-19] Gemini 3.1 Pro is the latest Pro model and was released 2026-02-19. Google reports 44.4% HLE without tools and 51.4% with search plus code. These are Google's own figures, and the site's displayed value may differ. https://www.labellerr.com/blog/google-gemini-3-1-pro-review-and-analysis/ - [2025-11-18] Gemini 3 Pro scored 37.5% on Google's own reporting and 38.3% on the agi.safe.ai legacy table. The site's figure ran about 1 point above Google's. https://agi.safe.ai/ - [2026-10-18] A Polymarket sibling market on the next Gemini Pro release date was quoted as of about 2026-10-14. It had "No release by October 31" as the leading outcome, and the page said no credible announcements pointed to an October Pro launch. This predates or ignores the Argon GA, so the market may treat Argon as not a "Pro". https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260922131618444 - [2026-10-01] Geeky Gadgets (low reliability) predicted a "Gemini 4 Pro" for October 2026, and Business Insider-sourced reports mention internal Gemini 4 variants Argon, Barium and Carbon. Carbon may ship as an update or a separate model. https://felloai.com/all-we-know-about-google-gemini-4/ - [2026-09-18] Google's release notes pointed new projects to 3.5 Flash-Lite or 3.8 Flash. The 3.8 Flash model was released 2026-09-02. Recent Gemini releases have all been Flash-tier, with no Pro. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Gemini BOTTOM LINE: Two paths exist to a qualifying model. A later model explicitly labeled "Pro" (a Gemini 4 Pro, or a revived 3.5 Pro) would be newly added to agi.safe.ai; no such model is announced, and Argon, which sits at about 57% on third-party HLE, is not labeled Pro. If the market or the site treats Argon as the Pro-tier successor, or if a Pro-labeled Gemini 4 appears, a score of 50% or higher looks plausible on current third-party figures. Whether any qualifying model appears by 2026-12-31 is the main question. NOT FOUND: The rendered "HLE Accuracy" chart data on agi.safe.ai, including whether Gemini 4 Argon or Gemini 3.1 Pro is listed there. Any official Google statement on a "Gemini 4 Pro" or other Pro-labeled model. Any scheduled Google release date before 2027-01-01.

- [2026-10-18] The agi.safe.ai page, fetched as served, has a static results table that stops at Gemini 3 Pro on 38.3% accuracy. Its news list shows HLE-Diamond released on 09/22/2026. The interactive chart did not render, so I could not check which models it currently lists. I found no sign that Gemini 3.1 Pro or Gemini 4 Argon is on the chart. https://agi.safe.ai/ - [2025-11-18] Gemini 3 Pro, the last Pro model with confirmed official HLE numbers, scored 37.5% without tools in Google's launch post. agi.safe.ai lists it at 38.3%, so the site's figure ran about 1 point above Google's. https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/ and https://agi.safe.ai/ - [2026-02-19] Gemini 3.1 Pro: Google reported 44.4% without tools and 51.4% with search and code . Pro HLE scores went from 21.6% (2.5 Pro, per agi.safe.ai) to 37.5% to 44.4% across successive Pro releases. https://deepmind.google/models/gemini/pro/ - [2026-10-13] Gemini 4 Argon went generally available on Oct 13. It was announced Sept 30 and was gated to cyber defenders until then. Vendor-reported HLE is 57.1%, and Artificial Analysis lists the same 57.1%. https://orcarouter.ai/blog/claude-mythos-5-vs-gemini-4-argon, https://neuraltrust.ai/blog/gemini-4-argon - [2026-10-18] Naming risk: Argon is reportedly the first Gemini with a codename instead of the Pro, Flash and Flash-Lite tiers . Its model ID is gemini-4-argon, and one source says no "Gemini 4 Pro" has been announced . The "Pro" label is community shorthand. A strict reading of "labeled Pro" could therefore exclude Argon. The question's text does not say how an unlabeled flagship would be treated. https://getneotiler.com/blog/gemini-3-1-pro-vs-gemini-4-argon-the-comparison-google-never-made/ - [2026-09-30] Gemini 3.5 Pro was announced in May 2026 and promised for June, but never shipped. A Google spokesperson reportedly told Reuters on Sept 30 that it is no longer planned. This is a secondary-source report of the Reuters comment. https://aiwiz.uk/blog/gemini-3-5-pro/ - [2026-10-13] Google Cloud's model lifecycle page lists gemini-4-argon with a release date of Oct 13, 2026. It lists no Pro model for Gemini 4. https://docs.cloud.google.com/gemini-enterprise-agent-platform/models/model-versions - [2026-10-18] Peer HLE scores in the same period, per Wikipedia and Artificial Analysis-sourced pages: GPT-6 Astra 54.7%, Claude Opus 5.5 about 61.4%, Xiaomi MiMo-V2.6-Pro 49.4%. Frontier HLE scores in the 55–60% range are now normal. Any Gemini Pro-class model released in late 2026 would be expected to clear 50% on vendor and Artificial Analysis numbers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanity%27s_Last_Exam - [2026-10-18] Site-lag precedent: the agi.safe.ai table is stale. It was last "Updated" for models up to Gemini 3 Pro, while Gemini 3.1 Pro (Feb 2026) and other later models are not in the static table. CAIS adds models selectively and with delay, so the "next Pro model added" may not be added at all before 2026-12-31. This is an inference from the static page only. https://agi.safe.ai/ - [2026-09-05 to 2026-10-13] Timeline precedent: the first Gemini 4 checkpoint leaked around Sept 5, Argon was announced Sept 30, and it reached GA on Oct 13. Gemini 3.5 Pro slipped from June to cancelled. Google's Pro release gaps have been about 3 months (Gemini 3 Pro in Nov 2025, 3.1 Pro in Feb 2026), and later releases have been delayed or renamed. https://felloai.com/all-we-know-about-google-gemini-4/ BOTTOM LINE: If a qualifying Gemini Pro model is added, the reference class (vendor 57.1% for Argon, peers at 55–61%) points clearly above 50%. The main uncertainties are whether CAIS adds a "Pro"-labeled Gemini to agi.safe.ai before 2026-12-31 and whether Argon, which has no "Pro" in its name, counts as one. The site was stale and the next Pro-labeled Gemini may not exist. NOT FOUND: the rendered chart contents of agi.safe.ai, including whether Gemini 3.1 Pro or Gemini 4 Argon is listed and when it was added. Also not found: any announced "Gemini 4 Pro" or other Pro-labeled model with a release date, and CAIS's typical lag between a model's release and its addition to the chart. I did not search for the contract's own price or odds, as instructed.

YES means: the next model with "Pro" in its Gemini label is newly added to agi.safe.ai's HLE chart by 2026-12-31, and its displayed HLE Accuracy is 50% or higher at noon ET the next day. - [2026-10-18] The scoring bar is not the hard part. Artificial Analysis lists Gemini 4 Argon (High) at 57% on HLE. Its Gemini 3.8 Flash (High) scores 48%. A Flash model is therefore already within about 2 points of the threshold, and a Pro-tier successor should clear it comfortably. https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/comparisons/gemini-4-argon-vs-gemini-3-8-flash - [2026-10-17] A price aggregator shows Argon at 57.1% on HLE, second to Claude Fable 5.1 at 59.1% among 296 models. A 7-point margin over 50% would absorb the usual site-versus-vendor offset of roughly ±1 point (Gemini 3 Pro: 37.5% on Google's figure, 38.3% on the site). https://pricepertoken.com/leaderboards/benchmark/hle - [2026-10-12] The 57.1% is Google's own figure, published with the 2026-09-30 announcement. Artificial Analysis independently reports the same value, so two sources agree. The same page notes the vendor numbers are unreproduced. https://www.orcarouter.ai/blog/claude-mythos-5-vs-gemini-4-argon - [2026-10-18] Ambiguity in "labeled as Pro" favors YES. Argon is a codename-only model, so Google gave it no tier label. The Wikipedia HLE results table lists it as Google DeepMind's frontier entry. The rules say "Pro" labeling may qualify and name no other route, so a resolver could treat Argon as the Pro-tier flagship. That reading is only a possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanity%27s_Last_Exam - [2026-09-13, updated 2026-09-21] "Gemini 4 Pro" rumors rest on seven community posts from five authors, with an internal checkpoint and an October launch claim. No evidence is first-hand. The same source says a tier-one report suggested Google could skip 3.5 Pro and make a Gemini 4 Pro the next big release. This is the main path to a literally labeled Pro. https://kie.ai/blog/what-is-gemini-4-pro - [2026-09-19] Official sources checked did not list a Gemini 4 Pro. The API catalog held only 3.8 Flash and 3.1 Pro Preview. DeepMind still described 3.5 Pro as coming soon. https://oxalphagpt.com/blog/what-is-gemini-4-pro - [2026-08-12] Google said 3.5 Pro was "testing with partners", so a finished Pro model may exist. One source (2026-08-23) described it as delayed, not cancelled. That conflicts with the aiwiz report that Google dropped 3.5 Pro. If it ships, it would likely score above 3.1 Pro. https://evolink.ai/blog/gemini-3-5-pro-api-release-watch - [2026-08-16] Scale's HLE leaderboard, which CAIS partners on, lists Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (thinking high) at 46.44%. This is above Google's 44.4% (2026-02-19). Third-party evaluation can run higher than the vendor's number, not only lower. https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/humanitys-last-exam-ai-benchmark - [2026-10-18] The Scale leaderboard page, fetched as served, carries a 2026-09-17 HLE-Rolling update note. Its table is stale, with Gemini 2.5-era rows and no Gemini 4. Active CAIS and Scale maintenance means new frontier models do get added, and Google's flagship is a high-priority one. I could not confirm that agi.safe.ai's chart has Argon. https://labs.scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam - [2026-10-18] Single most likely path to YES: the site's chart adds Argon (or a Pro-labeled Gemini 4) by 2026-12-31. The site must show at least 50% for that model, and the resolver must treat it as a Pro-class Gemini. Alternatively, Google ships a literal "Gemini 4 Pro" or "3.5 Pro", which would likely score 50%+ given peers at 55–61%. Prerequisites: CAIS adds a Google model within about 10 weeks, and the model has "Pro" in its label or is accepted as one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanity%27s_Last_Exam BOTTOM LINE: Conditional on a qualifying Gemini entry appearing, 50%+ is very likely. Argon is at 57% on both Google's and Artificial Analysis's figures, and even Flash is at 48%. The YES case depends on naming (Argon read as the Pro successor, or a real Gemini 4 Pro) and on CAIS adding the model before year-end. NOT FOUND: The rendered agi.safe.ai chart data, including any Argon or Gemini 3.1 Pro card. Any official Google "Gemini 4 Pro" announcement. CAIS's typical lag between a model's release and its addition to the chart. Any statement on how the market resolver treats Argon.

YES means: the next Gemini model labeled "Pro" is newly added to the agi.safe.ai HLE chart, and its displayed HLE Accuracy is at least 50% at 12:00 PM ET the day after it first appears, with this happening by 2026-12-31. - [2026-10-18] The rendered agi.safe.ai page (render_url) returned only the page header, the contributor lists and the affiliations. The chart cards and any Gemini rows were not in the output. I can't show that the site's chart lists Argon, 3.1 Pro or any Gemini 4 model. The resolver's only source is therefore unverified as to whether it tracks new Gemini releases at all. https://agi.safe.ai/ - [2026-10-06] The Scale AI HLE leaderboard, read 6 Oct, listed gemini-3.1-pro-preview (thinking high) at 46.44% ±1.96. That is the top Gemini on the full-set board. Argon, announced 30 Sep, was not among that board's top entries. A page note was dated 17 Sep. Official CAIS/Scale boards are therefore updated slowly and in batches. Argon had not appeared there by 6 Oct, a week after its announcement. https://iqmetrics.org/news/humanitys-last-exam-scores-what-the-leaderboards-show/ - [2026-10-06] The 57.1% Argon figure is Artificial Analysis's text-only subset of 2,158 questions, graded by a GPT-5.6 Luna judge. The official full set has 2,500 questions, including images, and CAIS/Scale grade with o3-mini. On the Scale board, the top model (GPT-6 Astra) scored 54.8%, while Artificial Analysis had Opus 5.5 at 61.4%. Boards differ by up to about 6 points. A displayed Argon figure could come in below the 57.1% headline. It would still probably clear 50%. https://iqmetrics.org/news/humanitys-last-exam-scores-what-the-leaderboards-show/ - [2026-10-17] Artificial Analysis shows Gemini 3.8 Flash (the latest Flash, 2 Sep) at 48% on HLE against Argon at 57%, a 9-point gap. If the site shows a non-text-only, no-tools number, that gap suggests Argon could sit in the low 50s. It isn't a comfortable margin. https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/comparisons/gemini-4-argon-vs-gemini-3-8-flash - [2026-10-13] The sibling Polymarket market "Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?" opened 2 Oct and ends 30 Jun 2027. It treats Argon as its own subject and resolves via agi.safe.ai. That suggests market makers see Argon as a separate case from the "Pro" market. The page snippet quoted 100% for both "45%+" and "50%+", but its text is garbled, so I give no weight to those numbers. It also cites a 56.9% Argon score on HLE-Diamond, not the original HLE. HLE-Diamond is a different dataset that may not be what the chart's "HLE Accuracy" shows. https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-argon-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261002 - [2026-10-01] Reuters, via Resultsense, quotes a Google spokesperson saying Argon is "bigger than Google's earlier 'Pro' models". That describes a model above the Pro tier, and it was the Gemini 3.5 Pro slot that was scrapped. Under a literal reading of "labeled as Pro", Argon sits outside the tier. If it doesn't qualify, the market needs a different, later Pro-labeled model. https://www.resultsense.com/news/2026-10-01-google-gemini-4-argon-model/ (fetch blocked, 403; relies on the search snippet) - [2026-10-13] A Pro-named Gemini 4 appears only in rumor and aggregator pages. Several pages assert a "Gemini 4 Pro" (CometAPI, Geeky Gadgets, NPowerUser leaks about a "Barium B" checkpoint). Others say it doesn't exist (aireiter, chatgoat). CometAPI's own note of 17 Sep says no Gemini 4 model card or ID exists. The Sept "Pro checkpoint, October release" leak was a single X post. The release that did come in October was Argon, not a Pro. https://www.cometapi.com/models/google/gemini-4/ - [2026-10-01] Google's actual naming has changed. Argon launched as a codename without a tier, and 3.5 Pro was dropped. Google's cadence is reported to be near-monthly and Flash-led, with 3.8 Flash on 2 Sep. This points to further non-Pro releases (Barium, Carbon, Flash variants) rather than a Pro in the remaining 10 weeks. https://www.resultsense.com/news/2026-10-01-google-gemini-4-argon-model/ - [2026-08-10] SemiAnalysis, via X, said 3.5 Pro was shelved and that Google would make a "Gemini 4 Pro" the comeback. That was speculation, and the reported outcome was a tierless Argon. Pro-label forecasts from commentators have already failed once. The June and July 3.5 Pro dates both passed without a launch. https://x.com/pankajkumar_dev/status/2086803310238167242 - [2026-08-16] Resolution mechanics. Both qualifying paths require (a) the model to first appear on the site, (b) to still be there at noon ET the next day, and (c) the displayed number to be ≥50 at that time. If Argon or a later model reaches only a non-chart table or the Diamond view, it may never be "added". Without an addition by 31 Dec, the market resolves No. The Gemini 3.1 Pro entry on Scale's board was cited at 46.44% as of 16 Aug, six months after its 19 Feb release. Even a 4.4-point rise would put a late addition in 2027. https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/humanitys-last-exam-ai-benchmark - [2026-10-18] Even a fast adder faces a lower-than-headline number. Google's own 3.1 Pro figure (44.4%) and the Scale figure (46.44%) differ by 2 points, and Artificial Analysis's figure for the same model is higher again at 47.0 on one aggregator. The displayed chart value depends on which board feeds it. A model near 50 could land either side, but Argon at 57 is not near the line unless the site applies a materially harsher setting. https://orcarouter.ai/blog/nemotron-3-5-super-vl-120b-vs-gemini-3-1-pro BOTTOM LINE: The strongest No route is not a low score. It is that no Pro-labeled Gemini may exist or be added to agi.safe.ai before 31 Dec: 3.5 Pro is dead, Argon is tierless and "above Pro", the site and Scale board update slowly (Argon was not on the board a week after announcement), and I couldn't verify the chart at all. If a qualifying model does appear, a score of 50% or more is likely on current numbers, so the No case rests on timing and labeling. NOT FOUND: The chart's rendered contents on agi.safe.ai, including whether Argon or 3.1 Pro is listed. Any Google statement naming a Gemini 4 Pro. The CAIS typical lag from release to listing. An Argon score on the full-set Scale/CAIS board.