Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

- [2026-10-14] Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI and Sud Radio put Lisnard at 6% in the first round. That compares with 3.5% in late September. He is one point ahead of Retailleau (5%) in this poll. Source: https://france3-regions.franceinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/alpes-maritimes/cannes/presidentielle-2027-david-lisnard-devance-bruno-retailleau-dans-un-sondage-apres-une-ascension-eclair-sur-les-reseaux-sociaux-3433854.html - [2026-10-14] OpinionWay/CNews (13–14 Oct, n=1,043) had Lisnard at 4%. An aggregator shows his trend average at 3.5% (10th of 23 names tested, stable over 30 days). His best result was 5.2% (Cluster17, 16 Sep) and his lowest 2% (Ifop, 24 Jun). The aggregator's page predates the 6% Ifop poll. Source: https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/candidat/david-lisnard - [2026-10-18] YouGov, the latest poll listed by EPOC Info, shows the front-runners as Le Pen 36%, Mélenchon 15%, Philippe 13%, Glucksmann 13% and Retailleau 7%. Lisnard appears only in hypothesis 5, at 2%. Other hypotheses do not test him. Source: https://www.epocinfo.fr/ep2027.php - [2026-10-14] Poll averages from sondage-presidentielle.fr: Le Pen 34.9%, Mélenchon 16.6%, Philippe 15.7%, Glucksmann 11.3%. Lisnard is about 3.5%, so he is roughly 12 points behind the second-place spot. Source: https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/candidat/david-lisnard - [2026-09-24] Cluster17 only tests Lisnard in its hypothesis 3, which excludes Zemmour, and gives him about 5% there. A Cluster17 poll without Zemmour had Le Pen 30%, Philippe 19.5%, Mélenchon 19.5%, Retailleau 7.5% and Lisnard 5%. Source: https://repere2027.fr/candidats/david-lisnard/ - [2026-03-31] Lisnard declared his candidacy on France 2 and resigned from LR. He is the Nouvelle Énergie candidate and has never run for president before. Source: https://repere2027.fr/candidats/david-lisnard/ - [2026-04-19] LR nominated Retailleau after a member vote. Wauquiez then withdrew and Lisnard left LR. Philippe (Horizons) and Attal (Renaissance) are rivals in the centre. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election - [2026-10-16] Lisnard is campaigning for an open primary of the right and centre. Retailleau does not close the door, but wants proof that a primary would improve the odds of winning. The primary is not agreed. Source: https://www.parlons-politique.fr/elections/une-primaire-peut-elle-reunir-la-droite-avant-2027-ou-risque-t-elle-daccentuer-la-rivalite-entre-lisnard-et-retailleau_29442/ - [2026-10-13] Franceinfo reports that prediction markets such as Kalshi rank Lisnard 3rd to succeed Macron, behind Le Pen and Philippe and ahead of Mélenchon. Some betting accounts created in October bet only on him, which raised suspicions of manipulation. Lisnard denies this. Poll numbers (3–6%) lag these market ratings, so market prices may be inflated by a coordinated online campaign. Source: https://www.shango.media/france-info-lidee-cetait-de-gagner-en-notoriete-se-passe-t-il-vraiment-quelque-chose-autour-de-la-candidature-de-david-lisnard-a-la-presidentielle-11958570 - [2026-10-12] Polymarket's implied odds for Lisnard were reported to have risen from 1.4% to 13.5% around early September. A later figure of about 11% is for outright victory, not for reaching the runoff. Source: https://www.planetegrandesecoles.com/elections-presidentielles-david-lisnard - [2026-05-12] Wauquiez warned that several right-wing candidacies risk leaving no right-wing candidate in the second round. Source: https://actu.orange.fr/politique/presidentielle-2027-laurent-wauquiez-assure-que-retailleau-est-un-candidat-legitime-lr-et-appelle-a-une-primaire-de-la-droite-magic-CNT000002pjO1H.html - [Upcoming] The Conseil constitutionnel is due to publish the official candidate list in March 2027. Candidates need 500 sponsorships (parrainages). The first round is expected around April 2027. I did not verify Lisnard's sponsorship count. Source: https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/candidat/david-lisnard BOTTOM LINE: Lisnard is a declared candidate with positive momentum (Ifop 6% on 14 Oct). But his polling average of about 3.5% is far below the roughly 16–17% for second place. He also faces crowded competition from Philippe, Attal and Retailleau, and his market surge may be partly manufactured. On current facts he would need a large consolidation of the right and centre behind him, probably through a primary or the withdrawal of rivals. NOT FOUND: Official Interior Ministry results (none exist yet). Lisnard's sponsorship count. Any agreed primary. Head-to-head or second-round polls including Lisnard. I read the full Ifop/Franceinfo poll article, but the page text came back truncated.

- [2026-10-15] Lisnard's polling average is about 3.5% in 1st-round polls. This is 10th of 23 people tested. He has appeared in 8 polls from 5 institutes since 2026-06-24. His range is 2% (Ifop, June) to 5.2% (Cluster17, 16 Sept). The latest is OpinionWay/CNews at 4% (13–14 Oct). Cluster17 averages about 4.7% for him and OpinionWay about 2.5%. https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/candidat/david-lisnard - [2026-10-18] An Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI and Sud Radio, reported by France 3 (snippet only, page not fetchable), gave Lisnard 6%, up from 3.5% at end of September. In that poll he was 1 point ahead of Retailleau (5%). It is a single outlier-like poll, and a hypothesis-specific one. https://france3-regions.franceinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/alpes-maritimes/cannes/presidentielle-2027-david-lisnard-devance-bruno-retailleau-dans-un-sondage-apres-une-ascension-eclair-sur-les-reseaux-sociaux-3433854.html - [2026-10-18] The YouGov poll, listed by EPOC Info, has Le Pen at 35–36%. In the hypothesis where he is tested, Lisnard is at 2% (a 5-candidate field including Mélenchon 13%, Glucksmann 12%, Philippe 8%). Mélenchon is at 15–16% and Philippe/Glucksmann at 13–16.5% in other hypotheses. The 2nd-round slot would need roughly 15–20%. https://www.epocinfo.fr/ep2027.php - [2026-10-14] Aggregate polling averages: Le Pen 34.9%, Mélenchon 16.6%, Philippe 15.7%, Glucksmann 11.3%. Lisnard is about 3.5%, so roughly 12 points behind the 2nd-place spot. https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/candidat/david-lisnard - [2026-10-18] Polymarket "Next French Presidential Election" is a sibling market: it prices who WINS the election, not who reaches round 2. A Polytrackers snapshot shows Le Pen 48%, Philippe 20%, Lisnard 12%, Mélenchon 11%, Glucksmann 4%, Retailleau 1%. Lisnard's win price is far above his polling, which implies a market premium. https://polytrackers.com/markets/event/next-french-presidential-election - [2026-09-30] Another Polymarket snapshot, dated 30 Sept, had Lisnard at about 8% and Le Pen at 43%. Cryptoslate showed him at 11.7% about 100 days ago. A 12-days-old article says his price rose from 1.4% to 13.5%, with questions raised over large purchases from newly created wallets. This suggests the price may be inflated by thin or whale-driven trading rather than informed forecasting. https://predictmarketcap.com/events/next-french-presidential-election and https://www.planetegrandesecoles.com/elections-presidentielles-david-lisnard - [2026-03-31] Lisnard announced his candidacy on 31 March 2026 and quit LR. His campaign launched on 3 July. He has never run for president. He runs under the Nouvelle Énergie label and backs an open right/centre primary. LR instead nominated Retailleau on 19 April 2026. https://lcp.fr/actualites/je-suis-candidat-david-lisnard-quitte-lr-et-relance-le-debat-sur-une-primaire-a-droite and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election - [2026-08-29] Lisnard says he excludes withdrawing, and his stated strategy is a primary to avoid right-wing vote splitting that blocks second-round qualification. No primary has materialised. Philippe (Horizons) and Attal (Renaissance) are also competing for the centre. https://actu.orange.fr/politique/presidentielle-2027-david-lisnard-candidat-a-l-election-plaide-pour-une-primaire-de-la-droite-et-du-centre-magic-CNT000002rBR5g.html - [2022-04-10] Base rate from 2022: Macron 27.6%, Le Pen 23.4%, Mélenchon 21.95%, Zemmour 7.05%, Pécresse 4.79%. The right's mainstream candidate (Pécresse) was around 10–17% in polls in the months before the vote, and finished 5th. The two qualifiers were the top two in polls throughout. https://fr.statista.com/statistiques/1301791/resultats-premier-tour-presidentielle-2022 - [2026-10-12] The Harris Interactive poll for M6/RTL (6–8 Oct) has Retailleau at 7–10%, Philippe at 13–17% and Le Pen at 35–37%. This was conducted amid the "Bardella affair"; Le Pen is the apparent RN candidate. In that poll the RN is far ahead, so the second slot is contested among Mélenchon, Philippe and Glucksmann. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election - [2027-04-18] Election timing: round 1 is scheduled for 18 April 2027 and round 2 for 2 May. Candidate list is fixed by the Constitutional Council in March 2027. Lisnard needs 500 sponsorships (not checked in this research). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election BOTTOM LINE: Historically, a candidate polling about 3–4% six months out has essentially never reached the French runoff. The qualifiers have virtually always been polling in the top 3 with 15%+ at this stage, and Lisnard sits about 10th. Only a one-poll spike to 6% and a Polymarket price inflated by suspected whale buying point the other way. NOT FOUND: Any earlier election's reference class for a 3–5% poll candidate who qualified, which I did not find, and the 2022 poll values (cited from memory of general knowledge, not a fetched source). Also not found: his sponsorship count, an expert estimate of his round-2 odds, and any Polymarket "reaches round 2" market for the other candidates. The France 3 page could not be fetched, so the 6% Ifop figure rests on the search snippet.

YES means: David Lisnard finishes in the top two in round 1 of the next French presidential election (April 2027, expected 18 April) and so advances to the runoff. - [2026-10-15] The Ifop-Fiducial poll (12–14 Oct) shows more than the 6% headline. Le Pen 32, Mélenchon 16, Philippe 13, Glucksmann 11.5, Lisnard 6, Attal 5, Retailleau 5, Zemmour 3. Lisnard gained 2.5 points in two weeks. The poll was the first after the PS primary. Philippe fell 2 points and Attal fell 2 points, so centre-right support is moving. Here Le Pen is at 32, below the 35–36 seen in other polls. In this poll, second place (Mélenchon) is at 16 and the third-place spot (Philippe) is at 13. https://www.bvoltaire.fr/personne-ne-plie-le-match-david-lisnard-la-petite-musique-qui-monte/ - [2026-10-15] His entourage says a primary can still be held in December–January and that "nobody is folding". If the right and centre unified behind him, the 16% second-place threshold would be reachable. That is the prerequisite for YES. https://www.bvoltaire.fr/personne-ne-plie-le-match-david-lisnard-la-petite-musique-qui-monte/ - [2026-10-18] Causeur reports a lunch this week between Lisnard and Retailleau, mediated by Béziers mayor Robert Ménard. It says a second poll confirms Lisnard's rise. It describes him as a "new" outsider riding an anti-system wave, the right-wing counterpart of the left's primary winner. This is the first sign of direct Lisnard–Retailleau talks on a single candidacy. The article does not say how or in whose favour. https://www.causeur.fr/lisnard-retailleau-un-couvert-pour-deux-pretendants-335607 - [2026-09-02] He claims 500 written sponsorship promises, the first candidate to do so. They must be confirmed formally in February 2027. This removes a ballot-access risk, a prerequisite for YES. He bases it on his Association of Mayors (AMF) presidency and the Nouvelle Énergie network. The figure is self-declared and sits exactly at the threshold. https://www.lejdd.fr/politique/presidentielle-david-lisnard-affirme-avoir-deja-reuni-500-promesses-de-parrainage-182400 - [2026-09-02] The same report says Attal and Retailleau are open to a primary, while Philippe refuses. A primary of Retailleau, Attal and Lisnard would therefore leave Philippe outside it. Philippe is the main centre-right rival for the runoff. https://pasidupes.wordpress.com/2026/09/02/le-maire-de-cannes-david-lisnard-a-recueilli-les-500-promesses-de-parrainages/ - [2026-10-16] Market pricing is a different measure from reaching round 2. Polymarket gave him 11.6% and Kalshi 12.5% to be elected on 16 Oct. Both are thin markets, and the site's owner notes a few thousand dollars can move them. This is an outright-win price, not a round-2 price. https://ilsepassequelquechose.com/ - [2026-10-06] Journal du Coin examined more than 10,000 transactions. It found about $12,400 of net buying accompanied the near-tripling of his odds in a week. Kalshi had only about $3,400 traded on him since August. This supports the view that the market premium is not an informed signal. It also means a viral campaign could be moving the market, and the same momentum might reach voters. https://journalducoin.com/actualites/presidentielle-2027-lisnard-polymarket-cote-12-000-dollars/ - [2026-10-02] Le Canard enchaîné reported his Kalshi price at 12% and Polymarket at 8% as of 2 Oct. Lisnard denies any involvement. https://x.com/canardenchaine/status/2106126709460222164 - [2026-10-18] Backing for a possible Lisnard surge: the Ifop move to 6% (from 3.5%) came as media attention grew. He is rated 6 vs Retailleau 5, so he has overtaken the LR leader in that poll. A rise of this speed is the pattern a dark-horse needs. Still, even 6% is 10 points short of second place in the same poll. https://france3-regions.franceinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/alpes-maritimes/cannes/presidentielle-2027-david-lisnard-devance-bruno-retailleau-dans-un-sondage-apres-une-ascension-eclair-sur-les-reseaux-sociaux-3433854.html - [2026-10-15] Parlons-Politique notes Retailleau "does not close the door" to a primary, but wants proof it would improve the odds. A poll lead over Retailleau strengthens Lisnard's bargaining position. https://www.parlons-politique.fr/elections/une-primaire-peut-elle-reunir-la-droite-avant-2027-ou-risque-t-elle-daccentuer-la-rivalite-entre-lisnard-et-retailleau_29442/ BOTTOM LINE: The single YES path: Retailleau (and perhaps Attal) stand down or lose a primary or deal to Lisnard, and he then rallies the right-wing and centre-right vote to about 16–20%, taking second place from Mélenchon, Philippe or Glucksmann. This needs 10+ points beyond his best poll, plus Philippe being displaced. Nothing sourced shows that yet, apart from the Ifop trend and the Retailleau lunch. NOT FOUND: Any poll showing him in the top two, or any second-round poll including him. Any agreed primary or Retailleau withdrawal. The second "confirming" poll mentioned by Causeur. The full Franceinfo/France 3 article text. A Polymarket "reaches round 2" market for him.

YES means: Lisnard finishes in the top two in round 1 of the next French presidential election (or wins it outright). The Interior Ministry's official results are the final source. - [2026-10-18] Causeur's Oct 18 column gives the right-wing context. The open primary Lisnard wants is pitched for Dec 2026 or Jan 2027. Causeur sees Philippe, who has rejected primaries, as "promised a podium" in almost every configuration, and so unlikely to join one. Retailleau was already invested by LR members. Causeur adds that polls now act as the primary, and that the right is wary of the 2017 and 2022 primaries. A Lisnard–Retailleau lunch brokered by Robert Ménard is planned; the outcome is not known. Nothing in the piece points to Retailleau stepping aside. Source: https://www.causeur.fr/lisnard-retailleau-un-couvert-pour-deux-pretendants-335607 - [2026-04-19] Philippe and Bertrand rejected the idea of a primary, while Lisnard, Wauquiez and Darmanin favoured one. A primary needs the consent of the biggest right/centre candidate, and Philippe, the strongest, has refused. The status quo, with no primary and several right/centre candidates, is the default path to NO. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election - [2026-10-06] Journal du Coin fetched and checked Polymarket trades. It found that about $12,400 of net buying coincided with the Sept 6–13 jump from about 3% to over 8%, with 97 accounts buying. On Oct 2–6, 182 buyers put in $75,600, and three new accounts supplied about 40% of that. Polymarket's headline volume of $3.89M counts shares traded, while the real money exchanged is about $1M. Kalshi shows only about $3,400 of Lisnard trading since August. The "third man" market price is therefore thin-market noise, not evidence of electoral strength. The outlet found no proof of manipulation. Source: https://journalducoin.com/actualites/presidentielle-2027-lisnard-polymarket-cote-12-000-dollars/ - [2026-10-06] The same source notes the market ranks Lisnard as a winner (13.3%) while the Ifop poll had him at 3.5%. His price of about 11–13% is a win price. A top-two finish needs roughly 17–20% of the vote on current numbers, which no poll has shown for him. The market price therefore gives no independent evidence of his vote share. Source: https://journalducoin.com/actualites/presidentielle-2027-lisnard-polymarket-cote-12-000-dollars/ - [2026-09-25/29] Ifop, Sept 25–29 (n=1,393), had Le Pen at 32–36% and Mélenchon at 15–17%. In every hypothesis Philippe or Attal was at 8–21%, and Retailleau at 7–11% where tested. Lisnard was not on the list in at least the first four hypotheses shown. Pollsters mostly leave him out of the base scenarios, and he appears only when the field is narrowed. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election - [2026-10-06/08] Harris Interactive (Oct 6–8, n=1,974) did not test Lisnard in any of the five hypotheses listed. It had Mélenchon at 18–19%, Le Pen at 35–37%, Philippe at 13–17% and Retailleau at 7–10%. The second-place bar in this poll is about 18%, more than 12 points above his best poll. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election - [2026-10-14] The only Lisnard-ahead-of-Retailleau reading is a 1-point lead (6% vs 5%) from one Ifop wave. Parlons-politique, on Oct 16, says the gap "does not settle" the question of unity and leaves vote intentions uncertain. Even on that poll the two right-wing figures together reach only about 11%, with Philippe still ahead. A merged ticket would still be below Mélenchon's 15–19%. Source: https://www.parlons-politique.fr/elections/une-primaire-peut-elle-reunir-la-droite-avant-2027-ou-risque-t-elle-daccentuer-la-rivalite-entre-lisnard-et-retailleau_29442/ - [2026-09-02] Lisnard says he has 500 sponsorship pledges, but pledges are not official sponsorships. Officials must confirm them in February 2027, after the decree calling the election. He is the AMF president and has a strong local network, so exclusion looks unlikely. The 500 requirement still adds a small disqualification risk, and sponsorships are published, which exposes mayors to pressure from LR. Sources: https://www.lejdd.fr/politique/presidentielle-david-lisnard-affirme-avoir-deja-reuni-500-promesses-de-parrainage-182400 and https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/16/textes/l16b1708_proposition-loi.pdf - [2026-09-02] RCF Nice reports that his first poll intention was 3%. It also notes the field is crowded on the right and centre, and that Lisnard says no figure imposes himself naturally. The risk of right-wing vote-splitting is the stated reason for his primary push, which concedes the threshold problem. Source: https://www.rcf.fr/articles/actualite/david-lisnard-assure-avoir-deja-recueilli-500-promesses-de-parrainage-en-vue-de - [2026-10-12] Cryptoactu and Bourse Inside say the Polymarket price reflects money staked, not vote intentions. They report that the largest individual bets are against him: $105k on "No" on Sept 30, and one wallet holds $429k of "No". Informed large money is on the NO side, even if the headline price looks high. Source: https://cryptoactu.com/lisnard-polymarket-cote-explose/ - [2022-04-10] In 2022, Mélenchon missed the runoff by fewer than 500,000 votes, even though he led the left at roughly 22%. The runoff threshold is usually 20%+ in a field with a hard-right candidate at 30%+. The Pécresse precedent (a mainstream right candidate ending 5th below 5%) shows late consolidation around the strongest candidate, which here is Le Pen. Source: https://prod.cm.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-france-election/tour-1.html BOTTOM LINE: Lisnard is a 3–6% candidate (hypothesis-dependent), absent from many polls' base scenarios, and the Polymarket and Kalshi prices that make him a "third man" rest on thin trading. Philippe refuses a primary, Retailleau holds the LR nomination, and nothing has yet consolidated the right behind Lisnard. The status quo is therefore NO. NOT FOUND: Any poll showing Lisnard above 6%, or any head-to-head or runoff poll including him. Any Polymarket "reaches round 2" market. The result of the Lisnard–Retailleau lunch. Any commitment by Philippe or Retailleau to a primary or to withdrawing. Official sponsorship counts, which do not exist before February 2027.