Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?

- [2026-09-02] The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%. This was the seventh straight hold. The official table shows no change at any 2026 decision. The last move was a 25bp cut on 2025-10-29. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/ - [2026-10-18] The Bank's schedule has two decisions left before the market closes. They are 2026-10-28 (with the Monetary Policy Report) and 2026-12-09. The next one after that is 2027-01-27, which is too late to change the rate in effect on Dec 31. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/ - [2026-10-17] The Canadian Press described the Oct 28 decision as "live". RBC's Janzen said a hike is not his base case, and RBC calls for no hikes in 2026, with modest tightening starting in 2027. The article says the 2.25% rate has stood for nearly a year. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/16/bank-of-canada-set-for-pair-of-important-data-drops-ahead-of-live-rate-decision/ - [2026-10-16] LSEG data put the odds of a 25bp hike on Oct 28 at about 34%. That was down after the September jobs report. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/16/bank-of-canada-set-for-pair-of-important-data-drops-ahead-of-live-rate-decision/ - [2026-10-16] The Globe and Mail cited Bloomberg data: about 35% odds of a hike on Oct 28, rising to about 95% for Dec 9. It said the 95% figure is the cumulative odds through December. Macklem has called oil-driven inflation risk the Bank's main concern. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-macklem-inflation-oil-prices-imf/ - [2026-10-16] Investinglive reports that markets cut the odds of an October hike but still lean towards a move by December. Canada lost jobs in both August and September. New US tariffs followed the breakdown of Canada-US trade talks. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/macklem-in-bangkok-oil-tariffs-and-job-losses-test-the-bank-of-canada-s-hike-case/ - [2026-10-09] Statistics Canada reported the economy shed 68,000 jobs in September, the second straight monthly fall. Unemployment rose to 6.5%. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/16/bank-of-canada-set-for-pair-of-important-data-drops-ahead-of-live-rate-decision/ - [2026-10-16] The September CPI release is due Mon 2026-10-19. The Reuters poll expects headline inflation at 3.2%, up from 3.0% in August. TD expects core measures (trim and median) near 1.9%, which would limit the Bank's reaction. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-inflation-risks-and-boc-stance-td-securities-202610161715 - [2026-10-12] Bloomberg Economics forecasts the Canadian rate at 2.25% for end-2026 and 2.75% for end-2027. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/a-higher-rate-world-is-in-store-as-central-banks-approach-2027/92200921 - [2026-10-12] Macklem has warned about falling behind the curve on hikes if inflation pressures persist. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/a-higher-rate-world-is-in-store-as-central-banks-approach-2027/92200921 - [2026-10-14] A Riotimes article says the Oct 28 decision leans towards a 25bp cut after the job losses. It conflicts with the Canadian Press and Globe reports above, which show markets pricing hikes, not cuts. It is a low-quality source. https://www.riotimesonline.com/bank-of-canada-october-28-rate-decision-jobs-drop-2026 - [2026-10-10] Nesto says most bank economists do not expect a hike on Dec 9, but money markets price a partial increase. https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-schedule/ BOTTOM LINE: The rate is 2.25% today. Only two decisions (Oct 28 and Dec 9) can change it before Dec 31. Market pricing leans towards a hike by December (about 95% cumulative on Bloomberg data, 2026-10-16), while several bank economists, including RBC and Bloomberg Economics, expect a hold at 2.25% through year-end. A weak labour market and the Oct 19 CPI print are the swing factors. NOT FOUND: The Sept 2026 CPI actual result (released after today). The Bank's own Sept 2 press release text. A recent Reuters economist poll for Oct and Dec. Any cut-leaning mainstream source (only Riotimes).

- [2026-10-17] The overnight target is 2.25%. It has been unchanged since the 25bp cut on 2025-10-29. The Bank has held at seven straight decisions, the latest on 2026-09-02. Only two decisions remain before the question closes: 2026-10-28 (with an MPR) and 2026-12-09. The next scheduled decision after that is 2027-01-27, so December 9 is the last chance to change the rate before December 31. https://www.ratehub.ca/prime-rate - [2026-07] The Bank of Canada officially reconfirmed the remaining 2026 dates as Sept 2, Oct 28 and Dec 9. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/07/bank-canada-publishes-2027-schedule-policy-interest-rate-announcements-other-major-publications/ - Reference class: the Bank has held at 2.25% for seven straight decisions. A question like this resolves "stays at current level" when the rate holds through the two remaining meetings. I did not fetch long-run BoC statistics. The 2024–25 easing cycle was 9 cuts from 5% to 2.25%, but the Bank has been on pause since Oct 2025. https://www.ratehub.ca/mortgage/bank-of-canada-target-overnight-rate (the Ratehub overnight-rate page, https://www.ratehub.ca/mortgages/bank-of-canada-target-overnight-rate, has the same figures) - [2026-09-02] The Bank held at 2.25%, as widely expected. Reuters says Macklem said policymakers were prepared to raise rates multiple times if inflation stayed too high. The Bank dropped its "rate is about right" language. Inflation is about 3%, driven by oil prices from the Iran conflict. Markets then priced a 25bp hike by December and about three more in 2027. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-set-hold-rates-100643738.html - [2026-10-09] The nesto page (updated that day) says most Big-6 economists expect a hold through year-end, with the first hike in 2027. No Big 6 bank forecasts a cut. Scotiabank and National Bank are exceptions, with hikes pencilled in for October/December (to 2.75% by year-end), and Capital Economics sees a hike as early as December. This is a secondary source. https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/mortgage-rates-forecast-canada/ - [2026-10-09] After the September jobs report (−68k jobs, unemployment 6.5%), markets put about 1-in-4 odds on an Oct 28 hike. TD priced a December hike near 88%. Money markets priced roughly 100bp of hikes over 12 months. Core inflation averages about 1.95% and headline CPI was 3% in August. Q2 GDP grew 3.3% annualised, then July was flat. September CPI is due Oct 19. https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/mortgage-rates-forecast-canada/ - [2026-10-17] OIS pricing for the Oct 28 meeting showed a 32% chance of a hike (+8bp). I could not open the page's meeting-by-meeting detail. https://rateprobability.com/boc - [2026-10-16] A True North Mortgage blog (secondary) quotes rate-market odds of 33% for an October hike and 98% for a hike by December 9. It also says National Bank expects a hold through 2026, then 2.50% in Q1 2027. These figures conflict with nesto's 88–90% December pricing and with the economist consensus of a hold. https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast - [2026-10-15] Brand Magazine cites a prediction-market 85%+ chance of an October hold at 2.25%. It reports a weak labour market alongside 3% inflation. https://brandmagazine.ca/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-october-2026-odds/ - [2026-10-14] Rio Times says the October decision "leans toward a cut" after the job losses, with a hold still possible. This contradicts the hike-leaning market pricing, so treat it as low quality. https://www.riotimesonline.com/bank-of-canada-october-28-rate-decision-jobs-drop-2026 - [2026-08-27] The C.D. Howe Monetary Policy Council voted unanimously (9 of 9) to hold at 2.25% in September and recommended holding for the next year. Its next vote is Oct 22. https://cdhowe.org/publication/mpcaug2026/ - Track record: the Reuters poll in January 2026 had about 75% of economists (26 of 35) forecasting a hold through 2026. The Bank has indeed held so far, but hike risk has since risen. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-hold-rates-steady-143834855.html BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favours YES, because the Bank has held for seven straight meetings and bank economists mostly expect a hold through year-end. Only the Oct 28 and Dec 9 meetings remain, and market pricing leans toward a hike by December (reported at roughly 88–98%, though economists disagree), so the main risk to YES is a hike, with a cut a much smaller one. NOT FOUND: Kalshi's own contract price (deliberately not searched). A current CME/OIS meeting-by-meeting table (rateprobability.com was blocked). A post-Oct 19 CPI update. A reliable long-run historical frequency of BoC unchanged-rate stretches (not fetched). Official Bank of Canada statements after Sept 2 were not fetched, so market-pricing figures come from secondary sources.

YES means: The Bank of Canada's overnight rate target in effect at 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026 is exactly 2.25%. That is, it stays unchanged through the Oct 28 and Dec 9 decisions. - [2026-10-17] Reuters, in its Oct 17 Macklem story, says markets were "not pricing in any change" on Oct 28 or at the December meeting. The same story says markets price about 100bp of hikes over 2027. This conflicts with the Oct 16 Globe/Bloomberg figure of about 95% odds of a hike by Dec 9, and with TD's ~88%. The Reuters line is the strongest pricing-based support for YES, and the sources disagree on pricing. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/bank-canada-sees-sharply-higher-140115290.html - [2026-10-17] Macklem framed the Oct 28 question as whether inflation will come down on its own or needs a rate rise. He said only that the Bank is "prepared to adjust" policy. He gave no commitment to hike. He also flagged that the higher inflation forecast reflects oil and petroleum prices. The Oct 16 Bangkok remarks (cited above) were a signal, not a decision. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/bank-canada-sees-sharply-higher-140115290.html - [2026-10-17] Macklem said on Oct 17 that higher oil prices are supporting Canadian growth, because Canada is a net energy exporter. That makes the case for a tightening response weaker. Separately, he said Canada is starting to see some recovery and investment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-17/bank-of-canada-sees-higher-oil-prices-boosting-growth-inflation and https://www.cp24.com/news/canada/2026/10/17/high-global-energy-prices-may-hurt-inflation-outlook-bank-of-canada-governor-says/ - [2026-10-16] RBC Economics (primary) expects the Bank to stay "uncomfortably on hold through the rest of 2026". It forecasts core inflation excluding food and energy at 1.8% in September, down from 2.1%. Its CPI diffusion index shows 35% of the basket above 3% in August, versus 54% a year earlier. Its read is limited pass-through of energy inflation to core. Jobs fell in both August and September. https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/forward-guidance/canadas-inflation-data-business-survey-on-tap-ahead-of-boc-decision/ - [2026-10-16] TD Securities expects CPI-trim at 1.9% and median at 1.9% in September, back to 2026 lows. It expects a "more balanced message" from the Bank in October with limited pass-through. The caveat is that 3-month core is 2.7%. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-inflation-risks-and-boc-stance-td-securities-202610161715 - [2026-10-16] TD's Hencic said two weak months of jobs undercut calls for hikes. He expects a hold on Oct 28. This comes via the Canadian Press, relayed by Refdesk. https://refdesk.ca/blog/bank-of-canada-october-28-live-decision-september-cpi-october-19-mortgage-savings-guide - [2026-10-13] Polymarket's Oct 28 contract gave "no change" 85.2%, a 25bp hike 14.8% and a cut 0.1%. A Brand Magazine article is the source. Liquidity was thin, about $36k. This is a different venue and date. https://brandmagazine.ca/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-october-2026-odds/ - [2026-10-08] NorthLedger's call is hold in October and one hike in December. This is a hike-leaning source. It still says most economists expect the Bank to wait until December or early 2027, and that it won't move without a hot inflation number. https://thenorthledgermoney.substack.com/p/revising-our-bank-of-canada-call - [2026-10-12] Desjardins' Bartlett, RBC's Fan and Capital Economics' Brown were cited by the Canadian Press. Fan and Bartlett expect a hold through end-2026, with a possible hike in early 2027. Brown's base case was no hike in October. The source is a secondary summary. https://tcf-fca.ca/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-october-28-2026/ - [2026-09-02] 100% of the 35 Reuters economists polled expected a hold on Sept 2, and 47% expected at least one hike by end-Q2 2027. The 2027 timing is the common economist view. Hikes are mostly dated after the question window. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/326070/20260831/bank-canada-holds-wednesday-two-banks-forecast-october-hike-lock-wait.htm - [2026-10-09] Nesto reports that TD's Oct 28 hike odds fell to about 27% after the jobs report. The Oct 28 meeting is the first with a new forecasting model that separates temporary inflation pressures from persistent ones. That design favours treating oil-driven headline inflation as temporary. https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/mortgage-rates-forecast-canada/ Single most likely path to YES: Oct 19 CPI shows core (trim/median) near 1.8–1.9%. The Oct 28 MPR raises the headline forecast but the Bank treats the oil shock as temporary. Job losses continue. The Bank holds on Oct 28 and Dec 9, mirroring RBC's "on hold through 2026" call, with the first hike in Jan 2027 or later. The Jan 27, 2027 meeting is too late to affect Dec 31. Prerequisites: - No hot core CPI. - No spill-over of oil into broader inflation and expectations. - No oil spike beyond what is priced. - Labour data stays weak. - No emergency or unscheduled move. A cut is a tail outcome and needs a sharp deterioration. BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on the economist consensus (RBC, Desjardins, TD, Bloomberg Economics) of a hold through year-end. Core inflation is near 2%, labour data is weak, and Reuters on Oct 17 said markets priced no change by December. Hawkish rhetoric from Macklem and other sources' ~88–98% December-hike pricing are the main threats to this case. NOT FOUND: The Oct 19 CPI and Q3 Business Outlook Survey results (not yet released). The Bank's official Oct statements. A reconciliation of the conflicting market-pricing figures for December. The Reuters October economist poll.

YES means: the Bank of Canada's overnight rate target in effect at 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026 is exactly 2.25%. That means no hike and no cut at the Oct 28 or Dec 9 meetings. My dimension is the strongest NO case, so below I argue only that the rate will not be 2.25% on Dec 31. - [2026-10-17] The only plausible NO route is a hike on Oct 28 or Dec 9. Market pricing for December is the core of the case. On Oct 13, TD put the odds of a December hike at 88%, and traders were still pricing a 25bp December hike per Reuters. Those odds had been "fully priced" the day before the jobs data. A hold needs the market to be wrong at the one meeting where it is most confident. https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/job-losses-push-october-bank-of-canada-hike-odds-down-to-25/393757 - [2026-10-17] OIS pricing from rateprobability.com is far lower than the other December figures, and the page's own date stamps are inconsistent. It shows a Dec 9 post-meeting implied rate of 2.61%, with 1.43 hikes priced and a 48.8% hike probability. Even this low reading implies the average path sits above 2.25%. Treat the page with caution. https://rateprobability.com/boc - [2026-09-16] The Bank's own summary of deliberations is hawkish. Governing Council saw a higher risk of inflation spreading beyond energy, and it said risks to the July forecasts had become more acute. This is reported by investinglive. My fetch of the Bank's own page returned only the header. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/boc-summary-of-deliberations-governing-council-agreed-near-term-inflation-likely-to-stay-elevated/ - [2026-10-13] Several forecasters see a hike by year-end. KPMG expects 2.5% by year-end. Capital Economics says the Bank will raise its rate to the midpoint of the neutral range, 2.75%, soon. Desjardins' Mendes says higher energy prices will feed other categories this fall and "could force officials to tighten policy soon." https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/job-losses-push-october-bank-of-canada-hike-odds-down-to-25/393757 - [2026-10-04] The hawk camp includes UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank. UBS's baseline has hikes in October and January. Oxford Economics expects October and December hikes. Manulife expects two hikes before the end of 2026. UBS says the Bank is less willing to look through above-target headline inflation, citing Macklem's shift in tone after Sept 2. https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/rate-hike-calls-gather-pace-ahead-of-october-boc-decision/592150 - [2026-10-08] NorthLedger's call is a hold in October and one hike in December. It describes a hike by Dec 9 as priced as a near-certainty. It also notes the market has cooled on October only; economists have mostly pushed the move back to December or early 2027 rather than cancelling it. https://thenorthledgermoney.substack.com/p/revising-our-bank-of-canada-call - [2026-10-13] The "hold through year-end" camp leans on one month of volatile data. CIBC's Grantham says the September job drop reflects data volatility more than tariff impact. RBC's Fan expects the labour market gains to be largely sustained and unemployment to edge lower by year-end. Wages accelerated to 2.3% y/y in September from 2.0%. The Dec 9 meeting follows two more jobs reports (October and November) and two more CPI releases. Another rebound would reopen the hike case. https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/job-losses-push-october-bank-of-canada-hike-odds-down-to-25/393757 - [2026-10-16] Headline inflation is the swing factor. Consensus for the Oct 19 September CPI is 3.2%, from 3.0%. The Bank's MPR on Oct 28 is expected to upgrade headline inflation forecasts, per TD. A Bank forecast showing inflation above target for longer would justify a December move. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-inflation-risks-and-boc-stance-td-securities-202610161715 - [2026-10-12] Weak core inflation (about 1.9–2.0%) is the main counter-argument to my case, and the one I could not rebut. CIBC's Lao says only 38% of CPI components are rising faster than 3%. That keeps the hold camp alive. https://www.admoremortgage.com/post/rate-hike-talk-heats-up-ahead-of-the-bank-of-canada-s-october-28-decision - [2026-10-17] The deadline arithmetic gives a hold no help. The 2.25% level is the bottom of the Bank's neutral range of 2.25–3.25% (mpamag, Oct 4). The Bank is at the floor of neutral, with headline inflation 1 point above target, and its Sept 2 statement dropped the "about right" language. Every move from here is toward 2.50%. A cut to 2.00% is not backed by any Big 6 forecast (nesto, Oct 9). https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/rate-hike-calls-gather-pace-ahead-of-october-boc-decision/592150 - [2026-10-17] There are two shots at a hike (Oct 28 and Dec 9), so the probabilities compound. The reported Oct 28 odds are about 25–35%. Any October hike would also make the question NO by itself. The Bank can also move earlier than the schedule, but that is an unusual step. https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/job-losses-push-october-bank-of-canada-hike-odds-down-to-25/393757 BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on a December hike that markets price at roughly 88–98% in most reports, plus an October hike at roughly 25–35%, with the hawkish Sept 2 shift and an upcoming upgrade to the inflation forecast. The weak point is that economists, including most of the Big 6, expect a hold through year-end, and core inflation is near 2%. NOT FOUND: The Sept CPI result (due Oct 19). The full text of the Bank's Sept 2 deliberations (my fetch returned only the page header). A Reuters economist poll for December. Any official Bank signal after Sept 16. Any rate-cut-leaning source other than Riotimes.