Will the Swiss National Bank hike 1-25bps at the December monetary policy assessment?

- [2026-09-24] The SNB held its policy rate at 0%. The sight-deposit discount stayed at 0.25 pp. The statement says inflation rose on energy prices and medium-term pressure "increased only slightly". Its conditional forecast assumes 0% across the whole horizon and has inflation inside 0–2% throughout, at 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for both 2027 and 2028. Policy was described as appropriate. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924 - [2026-09-24] The statement says key rates were raised in both the euro area and the US. The ECB and Fed each hiked 25bp in September; the ECB did so on 10 Sep (per the Admirals source). https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924 ; https://smzh.ch/en/artikel/snb-interest-rate-decision-september-2026/ - [2026-09-24] SNB FX wording softened. It now says it is "willing to be active" in the FX market as necessary, and the earlier "heightened" qualifier was dropped. Bloomberg read this as a pivot toward inflation vigilance as the franc weakened. Schlegel gave no forward guidance and said the SNB will decide in December on the data. https://gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/swiss-september-26-cpi-inflation ; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/snb-ends-war-footing-over-franc-strength-as-rate-kept-at-zero - [2026-09-24] CNBC, citing LSEG, reported traders pricing roughly 50-50 odds of a December hike versus a hold. It also reported more than 90% odds of hikes beginning by early 2027, and a rate of at least 0.75% by September 2027. This is a stale snapshot; I could not fetch the page and relied on search snippets. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/swiss-national-bank-interest-rates-inflation.html - [2026-09-24] Schlegel told CNBC that 0% is appropriate "at the moment" and that the SNB makes policy for Switzerland. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/swiss-national-bank-interest-rates-inflation.html - [2026-09-17] Nomura expected a hold in September and no SNB hike before 2028 at the earliest. Lombard Odier (September) says a first hike is "likely in December". Analyst views are split. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-national-bank-inflation-pressures-build-nomura-202609171242 ; https://am.lombardodier.com/insights/2026/september/after-holding-interest-rates-is-the-swiss-central-bank-preparing-to-change-gears.html - [2026-10-01] Swiss CPI for September was +1.0% y/y (FSO), unchanged m/m at 101.5. Core CPI was 0.5%, up from 0.4%. The increase is petroleum-driven; inflation excluding petroleum was 0.3%. The SNB path implies Q4 inflation averaging about 1.2%. https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home.gnpdetail.2026-0058.html ; https://gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/swiss-september-26-cpi-inflation - [2026-10-08] Vice Chairman Antoine Martin (reported via Reuters/FXStreet) said inflation is "comfortably" within 0–2% and sees no need to change policy for now. He flagged Iran-war uncertainty and downplayed the franc's depreciation, saying it is stable in real terms since 2020. USD/CHF was about 0.834. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-national-bank-sees-no-need-to-change-rates-despite-iran-risks-202610080953 - [2026-10-14] FXStreet said the Swiss franc slid after hot US CPI. CME FedWatch had a 43% chance of a Fed hike on 27–28 Oct and about 95% for December. FXStreet judged the bar for an SNB hike "relatively high". https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-slides-as-hot-us-inflation-reinforces-hawkish-fed-outlook-202610141544 - [2026-10-22 and 2026-10-30] Scheduled events: the summary of the September monetary policy discussion is published 22 Oct 09:30. SNB interim results as at 30 Sep follow on 30 Oct. https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule - [2026-11-03] Swiss October CPI is due (Trading Economics calendar). The Fed meets 27–28 Oct. https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/inflation-cpi - [2026-12-10] The SNB monetary policy assessment is at 09:30 CET, with a new conditional forecast. This is the resolving event. The SNB meets quarterly. https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-18 the policy rate is 0%. The SNB signalled no hike intent in September and says it is data-dependent. Its forecast stays within 0–2% at 0%, and core CPI is only 0.5%. Since September, the franc has weakened, headline CPI has risen to 1.0% and the ECB and Fed have been tightening, so the 10 Dec decision remains open. Market pricing was about 50-50 as of 24 Sep, and I did not find a current figure. NOT FOUND: A current (October) market-implied probability of a December SNB hike. The 22 Oct discussion summary has not yet been released. No Reuters poll for December. I could not open the CNBC page, so those figures come from snippets only.

- [2026-09-24] The SNB held its policy rate at 0%. It was the fifth straight hold, and the rate has been 0% since the June 2025 cut. The SNB's conditional forecast assumes 0% over the whole horizon: inflation 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 0.8% for 2028. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924 - [2026-09-24] The statement said medium-term inflationary pressure "increased only slightly". Inflation was expected to rise a little more in Q4 and then fall during 2027 as energy inflation fades. Schlegel called 0% appropriate "at the moment". Asked about other central banks hiking, he said "We make monetary policy for Switzerland." https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/swiss-national-bank-interest-rates-inflation.html - [2026-09-24] Market pricing after the meeting (LSEG, via CNBC) put a December hike at roughly 50-50. It put the odds of hiking by early 2027 above 90%, and a rate of at least 0.75% by September 2027. These are market-implied odds, not the contract's own price. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/swiss-national-bank-interest-rates-inflation.html - [2026-08-31] Reuters reported a Swiss Bankers Association survey. All respondents expected 0% for the rest of 2026, and 40% expected hikes in 2027. Markets then priced a 97% chance of no change in September. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/swiss-bankers-expect-snb-keep-073646420.html - [2026-09] Sell-side views before and after the September meeting were split. Nomura saw the first hike in 2028 at the earliest (17 Sep). ING saw rates unchanged over the coming quarters. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/snb-rate-decision-september-2026 - [2026-09] Lombard Odier said a first SNB hike is "likely in December". It cited franc depreciation and a widening rate gap with the Fed and ECB. https://am.lombardodier.com/insights/2026/september/after-holding-interest-rates-is-the-swiss-central-bank-preparing-to-change-gears.html - [2026-09] UBS had expected a first hike in June 2027 but flagged franc weakness and oil as reasons it could come earlier (CNBC). UBS's mortgage page, seen about 13 days ago, expects hikes in March and June 2027. It says the Hormuz-driven inflation rise is unlikely to force a hike in 2026. https://www.ubs.com/ch/en/services/mortgages-and-financing/mortgages/interest-rates.html - [2026-10-01] Swiss CPI for September was +1.0% y/y, in line with expectations, up from 0.8% in August. It was the highest since August 2024. Core CPI was 0.5%, up from 0.4%. The SNB's target range is 0–2%. https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home.gnpdetail.2026-0058.html and https://investinglive.com/news/switzerland-september-cpi-1-0-vs-1-0-y-y-expected/ - [2026-09-24] The ECB, Fed and BoJ have all started hiking, and the SNB statement notes the euro area and US raised rates. The franc has weakened, and Schlegel said the SNB's FX-intervention stance is now different from March. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/swiss-national-bank-interest-rates-inflation.html - [2026-12-10] The next scheduled SNB assessment is 10 December 2026, which is the contract's event. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/snb-rate-decision-september-2026 - [Historical base rate] The SNB has not hiked since December 2022, when it raised 50bp to 1.0% and made it three straight hikes in 2022 (175bp in total). It has since cut rates to 0%. Nothing in the sources I read says it has hiked from 0% in a single step of 1–25bp at a first move. Before the war-driven energy shock, economists expected 0% through 2026; a Reuters poll (Dec 2025) had 38 of 40 expecting a hold. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/snb-raises-rates-by-50-bps-from-050-to-10-as-widely-expected-202212150830 - [Historical base rate] In 2022 the SNB surprised markets with its 50bp September hike and its 75bp June hike. The SNB's first hike in a cycle has often been a surprise, and has often come larger than 25bp. CNBC cites the SNB's "history of surprising markets". https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/swiss-national-bank-interest-rates-inflation.html BOTTOM LINE: In the reference class of SNB meetings since mid-2025, every one has been a hold, and the SNB's own forecast assumes 0%. The outside view is that a hike in December is a deviation from that pattern. Against this, market pricing in late September was near 50-50, with a few banks calling for December, so this dimension leaves the outcome uncertain and the forecaster should rely on the live price. Another meaningful risk is a hike larger than 25bp, which would not count as YES. NOT FOUND: Post-September (October) Reuters or Bloomberg economist polls for December, current OIS-implied December odds, and a Kalshi or Polymarket SNB sibling market price. The search tool limit also stopped me from running more searches after the first batch.

YES means: the SNB raises its policy rate by 1–25bp (to 0.01–0.25%) at the 10 Dec 2026 assessment. A hold, or a hike larger than 25bp, resolves No. - [2026-09-24] The Bloomberg piece on the SNB decision (via Swissinfo) shows the SNB reverted to its pre-war FX wording, "willing to be active". Bloomberg framed this as a pivot toward more vigilance on inflation as the franc weakens. LB Macro's Luigi Buttiglione sees a hike as soon as December if the euro zone keeps tightening aggressively, and otherwise in Q1 2027. Bloomberg Economics, by contrast, expects 0% until late 2027. This is the main named-analyst YES path. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/snb-eases-threat-of-franc-intervention-as-rate-held-at-zero/92111719 - [2026-09-30] The SNB Quarterly Bulletin 3/2026 gives the real-economy case. Q2 GDP growth was solid and broad-based even after stripping out the pharma effect, and the SNB expects 1.5–2% growth for 2026. Company talks show staff levels "somewhat too low" for the first time in several quarters, with hiring planned. Manufacturing is gathering pace, construction order books are full, and price momentum is "elevated". The bulletin notes the Confederation yield curve shifted up and the franc depreciated against major trading partners' currencies. It also says residential real estate prices kept rising. These are the ingredients for a shift from "appropriate" to "tighten". https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/quarterly-bulletin/2026/quartbul_2026_3_komplett - [2026-09-24] The SNB statement raised its medium-term forecast "reflecting, among other things, the weakening of the Swiss franc", so the franc channel already feeds the forecast. The forecast is within 0–2% at 0%. A further franc slide or an oil spike before December could lift the 2027–28 path enough for the SNB to want a small insurance hike. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924 - [2026-10-08] The same day Martin spoke, FXStreet noted the Fed is expected to hike by at least 50bp over the next six months. The September FOMC minutes showed a majority expecting another hike before year-end (CME ~78% for December). The widening rate gap is the mechanism pushing the franc down. USD/CHF reached about 0.835, near a 17-month high of 0.838. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-retreats-further-as-snb-vice-chairman-hints-at-lower-for-longer-rates-202610081055 ; https://www.tradingpedia.com/2026/10/08/usd-chf-firm-as-fed-hawks-high-yields-offset-snb-risk/ - [2026-10-08] Money-market pricing still reflects up to three SNB hikes in 2027, even though economists expect 0% for years. If the market is right, a December start is the front end of that path. This is a market-versus-economist gap. https://www.tradingpedia.com/2026/10/08/usd-chf-firm-as-fed-hawks-high-yields-offset-snb-risk/ - [2026-09-07] BBH noted August CPI (0.8%) was above the SNB's own Q3 forecast of 0.6%, and core also surprised up. Q3 inflation again ran above expectations in September (1.0%, per the earlier reports). Repeated upside misses against the SNB forecast are the mechanism for a December forecast upgrade. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-us-dollar-strengthens-on-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609070337 - [2026-09-24] Lombard Odier, an asset manager, explicitly calls December likely. It cites the stronger growth forecast (1.5–2%) and the widening Fed/ECB gap, and says the move would come "from a position of relative strength". https://am.lombardodier.com/insights/2026/september/after-holding-interest-rates-is-the-swiss-central-bank-preparing-to-change-gears.html - [2026-09-24] The 25bp size matches precedent. The SNB's last hike, in June 2023, was exactly 25bp, per Admirals' decision table. A first move from 0% would likely be 25bp, within the YES range. A larger move would be needed only in a panic scenario. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/snb-rate-decision-september-2026 - [2026-10-14] Swiss CPI for October is due 3 Nov, and the ECB and Fed meet 29 Oct and 27–28 Oct (Admirals calendar). A Fed/ECB hike plus a CPI print at or above 1.1% would be the clearest YES triggers before 10 Dec. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/snb-rate-decision-september-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path runs through the franc. The Fed and ECB keep hiking, USD/CHF stays near its highs, and Swiss CPI beats the SNB's forecast again in October–November. The SNB then upgrades its December forecast and pre-empts with a single 25bp step, as Lombard Odier and Buttiglione argue. That would cut against explicit "no need" signals from Schlegel and Martin and against the Bloomberg Economics view of 0% until late 2027. NOT FOUND: A current October market-implied probability for a December SNB hike. An October economist poll on December. The 22 Oct policy discussion summary, which is not yet out. Any SNB official hinting at a December hike.

YES means: the SNB raises its policy rate by 1–25bp (to above 0% and no higher than 0.25%) at its 10 Dec 2026 assessment. A hold, a cut or a hike above 25bp resolves NO. - [2026-08-?? (Bloomberg survey, ~69 days before 18 Oct)] A monthly Bloomberg survey of SNB forecasters found no hike expected before June 2027 at the earliest. The majority expected a first hike only in early 2028. Bloomberg also reported that the SNB's internal expectation is for 0% until end-2027, assuming no further shocks. The survey is older than the 24 Sep meeting, but the internal-view report is the strongest "status quo" datapoint. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/snb-rate-forecasts-now-anticipate-hike-in-mid-2027-at-earliest/91870902 - [2026-09-24] Bloomberg's post-meeting piece says most analysts don't expect a hike before 2028. The same piece says the franc was back at pre-war levels, which is why the FX-intervention threat was eased. That reduces urgency: the franc is not weak enough to force the SNB's hand. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/snb-eases-threat-of-franc-intervention-as-rate-held-at-zero/92111719 - [2026-10-08] Market commentary after the Swiss CPI print: economists broadly expect 0% "over the coming years", while money markets price up to three hikes in 2027. September CPI at 1.0% sits at the midpoint of the target band, which one source reads as easing hike pressure. The gap between markets and economists is the main reason markets could be over-pricing near-term hikes. https://www.tradingpedia.com/2026/10/08/usd-chf-firm-as-fed-hawks-high-yields-offset-snb-risk/ - [2026-10-14] FXStreet: most economists expect an unchanged policy rate through 2027, while markets price a hike by year-end. This is the freshest sign of a consensus-versus-market divide. The December SNB decision is not a Fed-style data-dependent hike: the SNB has not moved on Fed or ECB tightening so far. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-strengthens-as-us-dollar-slips-on-dovish-fed-signals-202610140528 - [2026-10-02] Commerzbank analysts (via FXStreet snippet) believe the SNB will stay focused on the inflation anchor rather than an immediate hike. I could not open the full page, so this rests on the snippet. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gains-as-us-dollar-eases-amid-easing-fed-rate-hike-odds-202610020432 - [2026-09-28] OCBC strategists read the September statement and its softer FX language as a sign the SNB is more willing to live with a firmer currency. That is the opposite of a tightening signal. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-us-dollar-gains-on-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609280751 - [2026-07-16] The SNB's June summary of discussion (fetched) shows the Governing Board is a three-member body (Schlegel, Martin, Tschudin). It also shows that the Board treated the widening rate differentials and the franc as a policy-context factor, yet still held without any hike discussion. Two of the three members, Schlegel and Martin, have since said 0% is appropriate "at the moment" or that there is no need to change for now. A hike would need all three to shift within about eight weeks. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/summaries/zus_20260716 - [2025-12 to 2026-07] The SNB's summaries from December 2025, March 2026 and June 2026 all record holds at 0%. The pattern is a stable reaction function through the Iran-war energy shock, in which a rise in energy-driven CPI and a policy-rate divergence did not trigger a move. This is a status quo of at least five meetings. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/summaries/zus_20260108 - [2026-09-03] BBH noted that after hot August CPI (0.8%), swaps fully priced only a first 25bp hike in June 2027, with room for the SNB to hold, as inflation is well inside the mandate. The late-September jump to roughly 50-50 for December came from the post-meeting repricing and the franc moves. It can reverse quickly if oil or the Fed turns, and Williams (14 Oct) already flagged no further Fed hikes in 2027. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-hot-inflation-and-snb-path-bbh-202609031407 - [2026-10-01] Imported-energy inflation is the main driver of CPI (ex-petroleum 0.3% per the earlier report), and the SNB says energy inflation should fade in 2027. A central bank with a 0–2% band and CPI forecast of 0.8% has no mandate-based reason to hike pre-emptively. Pre-emptive hiking on a transitory supply shock would be a break from its stated reaction function. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/summaries/zus_20260716 - [Technical] Even a hike would only count as YES if it is 25bp or smaller. The only SNB hikes since 2022 other than the 25bp step in June 2023 were 50–75bp. A shock that forces a December move could be larger than 25bp, and an emergency inter-meeting move would not count. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/snb-hikes-key-deposit-rate-by-50-bps-to-150-as-widely-expected-202303230830 BOTTOM LINE: The case for NO rests on a five-meeting hold record and on SNB officials (Schlegel, Martin) signalling no urgency. It also rests on an economist consensus that places the first hike in 2027–28, and on a CPI forecast that stays inside 0–2% at 0%. Market pricing near 50-50 in late September may reflect a market-versus-economist gap that economists would call too hawkish. NOT FOUND: Current (October) OIS-implied December odds. The 22 Oct summary of the September discussion, which was not yet out. A Reuters poll for December. A Bloomberg survey dated after 24 Sep. A full-page read of the FXStreet Commerzbank note, which was blocked.