Will Indiana’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2027 be above 205 bu/acre?

This report covers only the 2026 crop. The question is about the 2027 crop, which has not been planted and has no forecast yet. NASS yield forecasts for the 2027 crop would start in August 2027. The 2027 final figure would appear in the January 2028 annual summary. - [2026-10-09] NASS's October Crop Production report puts Indiana's 2026 corn yield forecast at 200 bu/acre. That is unchanged from September and down 2.0% from last year. Harvested area is 5.16M acres and production is 1.032B bu. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2026/10-09-2026.pdf - [2026-10-09] The national 2026 corn yield forecast is 181.2 bu/acre, up 2.7 from September. Production is 16.034B bu. USDA's next report is due November 10, 2026. https://brownfieldagnews.com/news/usda-surprises-with-corn-crop-guess-also-ups-soybeans/ - [2026-09-11] The September report cut Indiana's forecast from 206 to 200 bu/acre. It also put Indiana's 2025 yield at 204. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796056/crop0926.pdf - [2026-08-17] The August forecast of 206 bu/acre would have been an Indiana record. https://ag.purdue.edu/news/department/agry/kernel-news/2026/08/indiana-corn-update-issue-33.html - [2026-01 to 2026-05] Indiana's 2025 final yield was 204 bu/acre. That is a record yield, and production of about 1.07B bu matched the state record. A county-level release followed in May. Statewide yield has not exceeded 205 in any year found. https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2026/05/31/nass-releases-county-yields-for-indiana/ - [2024-01] The 2023 Indiana yield was 203 bu/acre, a record at the time. The 2022 yield was 190. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Indiana/Publications/Ag_Report/2024/iar2401.pdf - [2025-11-14] The 2024 Indiana yield was 198 bu/acre. The November 2025 report pegged 2025 at 206, but the final was 204. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795644/crop1125.pdf - [2026-10-13] Indiana's 2026 corn harvest was 34% complete, matching the five-year average. The crop was 89% mature, against a 90% average. Condition was 64% good/excellent, versus 56% nationally. https://www.wwbl.com/2026/10/13/indiana-harvest-34-of-corn-44-of-soybeans-completed/ - [2026-10-11] Hoosier Ag Today reports mixed local results. Some fields lost 5–10 bu from water damage, and farmers describe "flood to drought three times." Another farmer reports corn coming in dry, around 17.5% moisture. https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2026/10/11/crop-tour-central-indiana-wraps-soybeans-turns-combines-to-corn-as-harvest-advances/ - [2026-10-12] RFD-TV reports market expectations that corn acreage could top 100M acres in 2027. That would be a rotation shift and could pressure yields. The source offers no Indiana-specific 2027 outlook. https://www.rfdtv.com/usda-raises-corn-yield-forecast-as-farmers-navigate-uneven-harvest-conditions - [2026-05-12] USDA's 2026 national trend-based yield projection was 183.0 bu/acre. That is a weather-adjusted trend, and no 2027 equivalent has been issued. https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0526v2.pdf BOTTOM LINE: No 2027 data exists yet. The threshold of 205 is above Indiana's record of 204 (2025) and above the current 2026 forecast of 200. The resolution source shows no yield above 205 in any year found. Exceeding it would require a new record, and the 2026 crop's final figure (January 2027) will be the next trend marker. NOT FOUND: Any 2027 Indiana yield forecast, the Purdue or USDA 2027 Indiana trend, 2027 planting intentions, or a dated list of 2027 NASS report releases. I also did not confirm the final 2024 yield against a primary source beyond the November 2025 table.

- [2026-10-09] USDA's October forecast for the 2026 Indiana corn yield is 200 bu/acre. That is unchanged from September and down from 206 in August. The forecast harvested area is 5.16M acres, and the final 2025 yield was 204. https://brownfieldagnews.com/news/usda-surprises-with-corn-crop-guess-also-ups-soybeans/ - [2026-09-11] The September Crop Production report cut Indiana's 2026 forecast from 206 to 200 after hot, dry finishing weather. The national 2026 yield was cut to 178.5. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/usda-2026-corn-soybean-estimates-shift-on-yield-changes/ - [2026-01-12] The 2025 final Indiana yield was 204 bu/acre, a record, on 5.23M harvested acres. The December 2025 USDA figure had been 206. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/usda-2025-u-s-corn-production-topped-17-billion-bushels/ - [2025-08/09] USDA forecast 205 for Indiana in both August and September 2025, and the final was 204. That is a small miss, but the final was still below the 205 strike. https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2025/09/14/indiana-yield-projections-from-usda-surprise-again/ - [2024-08] The August 2024 forecast was 207, but the final 2024 yield was 198. That was the second-highest on record at the time. https://www.us-agriculture.com/index.php/2025/04/09/2024-midwest-crop-report-corn-soybean-yields/ - [2024-01] 2023 was 203, a record 13 above 2022's 190 and 8 above the 2021 record of 195. 2023 was 8.5% above the farmdoc trend of 187.2. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/03/the-curious-case-of-us-corn-yields-in-2023.html - [2024-01] Indiana yields from 2021 to 2025 were 195, 190, 203, 198 and 204. Exactly one year in five has exceeded 200, and none has exceeded 205. The record is 204. The first three figures come from the sources above. 2021 is inferred from the 2023 article as "8 higher than previous record." https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2024/01/16/indianas-top-crops-set-record-average-yields/ - [2026-05-31] The NASS county release confirms 204 for 2025. https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2026/05/31/nass-releases-county-yields-for-indiana/ - [2025-12-15] A Purdue corn specialist questioned the 2025 USDA figure as too high, citing drought stress and disease. The reported state record came from the USDA survey, not from agronomists' impressions. https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2025/12/15/purdue-crop-chat-preview/ - [2026-08] The farmdoc model had Indiana's trend plus condition fit at R² of 0.91. It puts USDA's August national forecast error at a standard deviation of about 5.3 bu/acre. Both are useful for sizing the spread of outcomes. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/08/a-pre-and-post-report-look-at-the-2026-us-corn-yield.html - [2026-10-18] Resolution is for the 2027 crop. Final figures come in the January 2028 Crop Production Annual Summary, which is before the 2028-01-31 close. The 205 threshold sits 1 bu above the 2025 record of 204. The 2026 forecast is 200 bu/acre and the trend is roughly 190 to 200. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2026/10-09-2026.pdf BOTTOM LINE: Indiana has never reported a yield above 204. Only about one year in five has been above 200, and 2023 was the only one at 203 or higher before 2025. Beating 205 in 2027 needs a new record on top of a normal trend of roughly 195 to 200. By the base rate this is an unlikely event, though trend growth and good-weather years make it possible. NOT FOUND: A 2027-specific yield forecast from USDA, Purdue or any other source. A full Indiana yield series for 1990–2020, which I could not retrieve to count exceedances precisely. A trend-yield estimate for Indiana in 2027. The ag-data sites I saw may be unreliable.

YES means: USDA NASS's final Indiana 2027 corn-for-grain yield (Crop Production Annual Summary, January 2028) is 206 bu/acre or higher. - [2026-08-12] The strongest YES path is a favorable-weather year on top of rising genetics, so that a new record comes in at 206 or more. USDA's survey-based August 2026 forecast was 206, a record. This shows farmer-reported yield potential already reaches the strike in a year with mixed conditions. Pro Farmer and AgWeb confirm the 206 figure. https://www.profarmer.com/news/crop-tour-2026-what-expect-indiana-and-nebraska - [2026-08-13] The DTN 2026 Digital Yield Tour put Indiana at 202.2. Its own agronomist expected about 200 even after a wet June. Tipton County was forecast at 235.8 bu/acre. A normal June, instead of the saturated 2026 one, is the gap between roughly 200 and a record. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2026/08/13/localized-weather-creates-across - [2020 to 2025 history] Final Indiana yields were 187 (2020) and 195 (2021). 2019 was 169, and 2018 was 189. NASS's Indiana history table shows these. Later reports give 203 (2023) and 204 (2025). That is about a 17 bu rise in five years, and records have been set every two to three years. A trend-plus-good-weather outcome for 2027 would need to clear only 1 bu above 204. Sources: https://nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Indiana/Publications/Fair/hist.pdf and https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Indiana/Publications/Annual_Statistical_Bulletin/2324/pg31-32.pdf - [2025-09-14] Purdue's Casteel said Indiana's record years had good/excellent ratings of 65–70% through July to September. 2025 was only in the low 60s, yet it finished at 204. A year with those higher ratings, which 2026 reached at 66% on Aug 9, would plausibly beat 204 by a few bushels. https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2025/09/14/indiana-yield-projections-from-usda-surprise-again/ - [2026-05-31] County data show how much room the top of the distribution has. Warren County averaged 248.6 and Benton 240 in 2025. Sixteen counties topped 210. Jasper, a large county, was at 199.8. A broad lift in the lagging counties would raise the state mean. https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2026/05/31/nass-releases-county-yields-for-indiana/ - [2026-08-12] Management and genetics are still adding yield. Purdue's potash trials topped out near 240 bu/acre. Sulfur-treated fields recovered better from saturated soils. Planting populations have risen about 400 plants per acre per year, though that gain is plateauing. https://ag.purdue.edu/news/department/agry/kernel-news/2026/08/indiana-corn-update-issue-33.html - [2026-04 to 2026-09] Weather background for 2027. NOAA put a 25% chance on a "very strong" El Niño by late 2026 or early 2027. Forecasters said it would likely last into at least the first half of 2027. A WeatherDesk meteorologist said El Niño typically correlates with cooler, wetter Corn Belt summers. That is mostly favorable for yield, but I found no 2027 summer outlook. Sources: https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/super-el-nino-talk-grows-what-it-means-u-s-farmers and https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/super-el-nino-event-could-bring-cooler-wetter-conditions-to-the-corn-belt/ - [2026-05 to 2026-09] T-Storm's Tannura said that in the two La Niña-to-El Niño transitions that went well since 1970 (1972, 1982), U.S. corn ran about 12 bu above trend. Only two of five such transitions did that, so it is a thin precedent. https://www.profarmer.com/news/transition-el-nino-signals-drought-relief-global-crop-disruption-looms - [2026-08-13] Note on the DTN comparison: the RMA 5-year average it cites for Indiana is 210.8 (210.8 vs the 2025 DTN 204.6 in the earlier table). That is an insured-yield measure, not NASS. It still shows that individual farm yields in normal years sit above the NASS state average, which leaves room for a statewide upside surprise. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2026/08/13/localized-weather-creates-across - [2026-08-12] NASS's forecast process can run high. The August 2024 forecast was 207 against a final of 198. The August 2026 forecast was 206 against an October figure of 200. These misses show that the survey sees 205 or more as reachable by August in good years. The final then depends on a favorable August and September. Sources: the colleagues' base-rate report and https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/saturated-indiana-reveals-immature-corn-and-uneven-beans-dryland-drags-nebraska-yields BOTTOM LINE: The most likely YES path is a 2027 season with timely June–July rain, no late-summer dryness and no early disease. Under that path, USDA records yield of 206 or more, one bushel above the ratchet of recent records (203, 204 and a 206 forecast in August 2026). Genetics and county ceilings support that, but it needs good weather in a year when 2025 and 2026 each lost bushels late in the season. NOT FOUND: A 2027 Indiana trend or yield forecast from USDA, Purdue or farmdoc, 2027 summer ENSO or seasonal outlooks, 2027 planting intentions, and the Indiana trend-yield slope. The farmdoc and Farm Progress pages I opened returned navigation content only, so the claims above rest on search excerpts.

YES means: NASS's reported Indiana 2027 corn-for-grain yield per harvested acre is 206 bu/acre or higher, a strict "above 205" with no rounding up. The 2027 final figure comes in the January 2028 Annual Summary. - [2026-08-13] Purdue corn specialist Dan Quinn said in August that he did not expect a record state yield in 2026. He expected "around that 200-bushel mark" because of June flooding. The October NASS figure of 200 matches this, while the August 206 was a survey overshoot. I fetched this page, and it also reports a DTN model estimate of 202.2 for 2026. DTN's 2025 model estimate was 206.1, against a final of 204. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2026/08/13/localized-weather-creates-across - [2026-08-13] Quinn's report says June rain of 15–20 inches caused drowned-out spots and uneven crop development. Gary Kerr, a Franklin County farmer, said July dryness hurt corn on lighter ground. This is evidence that even a high-input, early-planted crop lost yield in 2026. The state record of 204 has therefore been reached only in years with near-ideal weather. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2026/08/13/localized-weather-creates-across - [2026-08-17] Purdue notes the 2026 crop was hit by flooding and by about 20% less sunlight than the five-year average from July 31 to August 17. Research it cites puts yield loss from waterlogging at 8 bu/acre per day at V6. This shows how fragile a 206+ outcome is. https://ag.purdue.edu/news/department/agry/kernel-news/2026/08/indiana-corn-update-issue-33.html - [2026-09-21] IRI says a very strong El Niño is 100% likely through February 2027. It puts El Niño at 61% by May–July 2027, with no probability assigned to neutral or La Niña through spring. Fox Weather reports that four of the five super El Niños since 1970 were followed immediately by La Niña. This is a media-reported historical pattern, not an official forecast. Purdue's 2016 outlook says a fast-developing La Niña after a strong El Niño raised Indiana drought risk. The 2027 growing season is therefore uncertain, with a tilt toward a hot or dry summer risk, and some chance of a drier-than-normal Indiana summer. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ ; https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/super-el-nino-self-destruct-la-nina-2027 - [2026-08-12] The farmdoc model, which fits Indiana yield from trend plus condition ratings, has a trend base well below 205. The 2023 record of 203 was 8.5% above farmdoc's trend of 187.2 (March 2024). Since the trend grows only about 2 bu/year, 2027 trend is likely near 195. A yield of 206+ needs roughly 5% above trend. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/08/a-pre-and-post-report-look-at-the-2026-us-corn-yield.html ; https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/03/the-curious-case-of-us-corn-yields-in-2023.html - [2022-01-18] Before 2021, Indiana's record was 189 (2018). The state's yield jumped 2011–2016 from 146 to 99 to 177 to 188 to 150 to 173. Boom-and-bust variability is large, and record years have been followed by declines: 2023's 203 fell to 198 in 2024. https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2022/01/18/usda-estimates-i-state-records/ - [2026-02-19] USDA's first look at 2026 cut the national trend yield by 3.5 bu to 183. USDA's own trend is therefore not rising smoothly. The February 2025 USDA baseline had 2027/28 national trend yield rising only about 2 bu/year from 2026. That implies no step-change in 2027. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/columns/washington-insider/article/2026/02/19/usda-projects-soybean-production ; https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/outlooks/110966/OCE-2025-1.pdf - [2026-08-12] USDA's August 2026 forecast of 206 for Indiana was revised down to 200 within a month. In August 2024 the 207 forecast also ended well short, at 198. So forecasts above 205 have not survived to the final figure in either recent year. https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/saturated-indiana-reveals-immature-corn-and-uneven-beans-dryland-drags-nebraska-yields - [2026-08-12] The 2027 US corn acreage outlook is high. USDA put 2026 plantings at 96.7 million acres, the third largest since 1940. If 2027 acreage stays at or above 95 million, more corn-on-corn is likely. That tends to lower average yields. https://www.farmprogress.com/corn/lower-yield-plus-higher-acres-equals-grain-price-guesses - [Historical] Indiana's yields before 2004 were below 168. The pre-2021 series (1988–2021) shows many collapses: 83 in 1988, 92 in 1991, 121 in 2002, 99 in 2012 and 150 in 2015. The spread of outcomes is wide, and the left tail is fat. The 205 strike sits at the extreme right of the series. https://nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Indiana/Publications/Fair/hist.pdf BOTTOM LINE: Exceeding 205 requires a record yield above 2025's 204. No year has done that, and every record year has been followed by a lower or flat figure. With a trend near 195, a fragile 2026 crop (200 after the August 206 forecast), a late-2026 El Niño likely fading into a possible La Niña in 2027, and big corn acreage, NO is the status quo. NOT FOUND: Any 2027 Indiana or Purdue yield outlook; any 2027 NASS release calendar; an official NOAA 2027 summer forecast for Indiana; a precise 2027 Indiana trend estimate.