Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

- [2026-11-28] Election day. The CEC results page (db.cec.gov.tw) shows no result yet. The Wikipedia results table for Taipei is also empty as of 2026-10-16. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taipei_City_local_election - [2026-09-07] Candidate registration ran 2026-08-31 to 09-04. Six candidates registered for Taipei mayor: - Chiang Wan-an (KMT, incumbent) - Puma Shen (DPP) - Kuo Hsi (Mahjong party) - Tang Hsin-min (Third Force alliance) - Hsiao Wen-chien (MiLinguall Party) - Lin Chih-cheng (independent) https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202609075001 - [2026-10-08] TVBS poll (Oct 5–7): Chiang 49%, Shen 41%, 11% undecided. The gap was 28 points in May. Within the sample, 55% expect Chiang to win and 20% expect Shen. Party ID in the sample was KMT 32%, DPP 28%, TPP 7%. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9803622 - [2026-09-22] Trust in Democracy Association poll (n=1,076): Chiang 41.7%, Shen 40.5%. The same poll found 42% want a switch to the DPP and 38% want to keep the KMT. Among independents, Chiang led 31.7% to 25.9%. The association is run by Huang Ching-lung, and I did not check its partisan lean. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6444322 - [2026-08-05] Earlier polls: TPOC (Aug 5–7) had Chiang 48.4%, Shen 33.0%. Shanshui (June) had 55.2% to 27.5%. TVBS (May) had 58% to 30%. The trend is toward Shen across pollsters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taipei_City_local_election - [2026-10-17] TVBS debate poll: 41% expect Shen to perform better in the debate and 30% expect Chiang. Among neutral voters it was 31% to 14%, with 55% undecided. This measures expected debate performance, not vote choice. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4037282 - [2026-10-15] Chiang and Shen agreed to a first televised debate on Oct 31, 12:00–14:00, at the TVBS studio, co-hosted by TVBS and SET. Shen's side wanted more debates. Chiang's side said it is open to others and has accepted other media invitations. Chiang agreed to at least one debate on 10-13 after weeks of declining to answer. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610150028 - [2026-10-06] Shen is under attack over a 2014 article he wrote about drug decriminalization. The KMT is pressing the issue. The Chiang campaign has also been criticised for mudslinging and sloppy mistakes (Taipei Times editorial, 10-12). https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610060021 - [2026-10-04] President Lai, VP Hsiao, Premier Cho and Tsai Ing-wen appeared at a Shen campaign rally in Taipei. Shen held his first motorcade on 10-04. https://www.theepochtimes.com/china/latest-poll-shows-dpp-candidate-closing-the-gap-ahead-of-november-taipei-mayoral-race-6099353 - [2026-10-15] Chiang's campaign headquarters opens Oct 26. He is campaigning on the Taipei Dome, MRT expansion and Nvidia's Taiwan HQ. He won in 2022 with 42.29% in a three-way race. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6458681 - [2026-10-23] Scheduled: ballot-number draw on Oct 23. Voter rolls are finalized Nov 8. The official mayoral campaign period runs Nov 13–27. A poll publication blackout starts about 10 days before the vote. https://www.ocac.gov.tw/OCAC/Eng/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeid=329&pid=80997079 - [2026-10-16] Informal YouTube street polls conflict: Chiang 58 to 51 in Zhongzheng, Shen ahead in some districts. They are not representative. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261016000150-260407 BOTTOM LINE: Chiang is the incumbent and still leads in most polls, by 8 points in TVBS in October. The gap has narrowed sharply since May, and one poll in September had it at 1.2 points. No debate or results have happened yet. The Oct 31 debate and the polling blackout are the next scheduled events. NOT FOUND: Any poll after Oct 8 that measures vote intention. A current CEC results page, since the vote has not happened. Any independent polling average. Any withdrawal or consolidation among the minor candidates.

- [2026-10-17] TVBS poll, 12–15 Oct, n=1,131. This is not a vote-intention poll. 41% expect Shen to do better in the 31 Oct debate and 30% expect Chiang to. Neutral voters split 31% Shen, 14% Chiang, 55% undecided. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5609427 - [2026-10-08] TVBS vote-intention poll, 3 and 5–7 Oct, n=1,120, ±2.9 points. Chiang (KMT incumbent) 49%, Shen (DPP) 41%, undecided 11%. The gap was 28 points in late May. 55% expect Chiang to win and 20% expect Shen. Voters who backed Huang Shan-shan in 2022 now split 53% Shen, 39% Chiang (this figure comes from the Yahoo summary of the TVBS poll). https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4033527 - [2026-09-22] Taipei Trust in Democracy Association poll, 16–18 Sep, n=1,076, ±3 points. Chiang 41.7%, Shen 40.5%. Chiang's approval is 52.4%. 57.8% think Chiang is most likely to win and 21.3% think Shen is. The pollster was commissioned by a group whose chair is Huang Ching-lung. The poll was designed by Tai Li-an and fielded by Beacon Marketing. Commissioning party: unclear lean. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/09/22/2003864703 - [2026-09-22] Earlier polls showed bigger Chiang leads. Z.Media in June: 55.2 to 27.5. Taiwan Public Opinion Research Center in August: 48.4 to 33. Taiwan Brain Trust in May: 52.9 to 29.7. The trend since May is a steadily narrowing gap. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6444322 - [2026-09-20] Yahoo News Taiwan online poll, 14–20 Sep, 42,700 users: Chiang 57.4%, Shen 25.3%. This is a self-selected online poll and is not a reliable guide. https://www.octagonai.co/news/taipei-mayor-election-odds-2026-shen-bo-yang/ - [2026-09] Octagon AI, a third-party aggregator and model, put Chiang at 75% and Shen at about 20%. It reported Chiang at 81% in the prediction market (market identity and date not specified). It also reported a 63-point drop in Shen's implied probability, from 86% to 23%, on 20 Sep after the Yahoo poll. That 86% looks like a data artifact. These figures are not primary and are possibly stale. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/international-elections/taipei-mayoral-election-winner/ - [2026-10-18] Taipei Times editorial calls Shen "the underdog". It says the DPP has historically not fared well in the capital. It also notes Chiang was expected to win handily a few months ago and that there is no major third-party candidate this year. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2026/10/18/2003866148 - [2026-10-?? (c. 12 days before 18 Oct)] The Diplomat says few gave Shen a chance in traditionally pan-Blue Taipei, but the race is more competitive than expected. I could not fetch the full page, so this comes from the search snippet. https://thediplomat.com/2026/10/the-surprising-drama-in-taipeis-2026-mayor-race/ - [2022-11-26] Base rate, 2022 result: Chiang (KMT) 42.29%, Chen Shih-chung (DPP) 31.93%, independent Huang 25.14%. KMT and TPP-aligned voters held the city, and Chiang's 2022 win was a three-way race. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Shih-chung - [Historical] Taipei mayoral history (Wikipedia, tables partly truncated). Chen Shui-bian (DPP) won in 1994 on a split pan-Blue vote, with 43.67%. Ma Ying-jeou (KMT) won in 1998. Ko Wen-je (independent, TPP) held the office 2014–2022. The DPP has won the Taipei mayoralty only once (1994). The KMT-aligned side has otherwise dominated. Full historical results were not fetched. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Taipei - [Incumbency] In the 2022 local elections, DPP incumbents in Kaohsiung, Tainan and Chiayi County retained their seats, and the KMT flipped Taipei, Taoyuan and Keelung. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2022/11/27/2003789672 - [2026-10-11 to 10-14] Informal YouTube street polls (convenience samples, not meaningful): Daan district favoured Chiang 74 to 66, and a Shuanglian Market poll favoured Shen 29 to 21. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261014004464-260407 BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favours Chiang. Taipei is a KMT-leaning city that the DPP has won once, in 1994, and the incumbent leads every vote-intention poll found, with no major third-party candidate. But the gap has narrowed from 28 points in May to 8 in TVBS and to about 1 in one poll in September. The race is genuinely competitive and the trend runs toward Shen. The first TV debate is on 31 Oct and the election is on 28 Nov. NOT FOUND: Polls from the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, the Election Study Center and United Daily News. The Diplomat full text. A track record of TVBS or Taipei mayoral polls versus actual results (the 2022 pre-election polls). Any seat-flip base rate computed on a solid dataset. Current Polymarket-independent betting odds (I did not look for the contract's own price).

YES means: Puma Shen (DPP) is certified by the CEC as the winner of the Nov 28, 2026 Taipei mayoral election and becomes the next Mayor of Taipei. - [2026-10-17] Stanford political scientist Kharis Templeman moved his Taipei rating from "likely KMT" to "leans KMT" and said Shen has "dominated the narrative" and put Chiang on the defensive. He estimates TVBS leans pan-blue by about 10 points. If that holds, TVBS's 8-point Chiang lead on Oct 8 would be roughly a tie after correcting for the bias. He also calls the Oct 8 figure the best TVBS number for a DPP Taipei candidate since 2010. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/t/lu-shiow-yen - [2026-10-17] Templeman's structural point: Taipei's partisan lean is only B+3, based on the 2020 and 2024 presidential votes. Lai Ching-te ran just 1.6 points worse in Taipei than in New Taipei in 2024. So a DPP win needs no large partisan shift, only a candidate who can win swing voters. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/t/lu-shiow-yen - [2026-10-12] CommonWealth Magazine reports that internal polls from both camps put the gap at about 10 points. It says Shen's team is deliberately downplaying his anti-China image and positioning him as a policy-focused candidate, aiming at voters aged 35–49 and at voters tired of mudslinging. https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5056 - [2026-10-12] Path through the swing vote. A KMT councilor quoted by CommonWealth says about 15 of the 25 points Huang Shan-shan (TPP-backed) won in 2022 are now swing voters. He says higher turnout would narrow the gap. In 2022, turnout was over 70% among voters aged 55 and over, but just over 50% among those under 34. The TVBS Oct 8 poll's cross-tab (Huang 2022 voters 53% Shen, 39% Chiang) fits this path. https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5056 - [2026-10-04] Shen's Oct 4 headquarters event drew a crowd the campaign put at 120,000. The CommonWealth piece cites a political scientist who says it included recall-movement supporters, young voters and swing voters. This is a turnout signal, though the crowd figure is the campaign's own claim. https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5056 - [2026-09-22] The Tai Li-an poll (Sept 16–18) gave Shen leads in 7 of 12 districts. 42% wanted a switch to the DPP against 38% to keep the KMT, and Shen's "unsuitable" rating was lower than Chiang's (32.5% vs 38.3%). Templeman calls Tai Li-an "well-regarded" but is skeptical of the cross-tabs, for example Chiang leading in Datong while Shen leads in Da'an. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%88%B4%E7%AB%8B%E5%AE%89%E4%BF%A1%E6%B0%91%E5%8D%94%E6%9C%83%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E5%8F%B0%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF-%E8%94%A3%E8%90%AC%E5%AE%89%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E5%BA%A6417%EF%BC%85%E3%80%81%E6%B2%88%E4%BC%AF%E6%B4%8B405%EF%BC%85-014942378.html - [2026-10-14] DPP-cited QSearch social-media data (Oct 5–12): Chiang had 55.8% negative and 11.7% positive mentions, a net negativity of 44%, against 14.6% for Shen. The DPP official who cited it also says Shen is still the underdog in all polls, and that quiet KMT and TPP supporters are not necessarily less likely to vote. This is partisan-sourced and not a vote measure. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/14/2003865936 - [2026-10-13] Storm Media's exclusive (about 5 days before Oct 18) says Shen has cut Chiang's lead to single digits. It quotes KMT politicians as saying they are losing the online fight while TPP supporters "fall silent". Only the summary was seen. https://world.storm.mg/articles/1171544 - [2026-10-17] The TVBS debate poll (Oct 12–15) shows 41% to 30% expecting Shen to do better. Neutral voters split 31% to 14%, with 55% undecided. KMT identifiers back Chiang at only 76% on this measure, and TPP identifiers favour Chiang 58% to 24%. That leaves room for the KMT and TPP base to be less consolidated than the September poll's 96% and 88%. Shen's debate edge also suggests a possible Oct 31 turning point. https://news.nextapple.com/politics/20261017/E15FF4C3367BE3622D589082BB3DCBF1 - [2026-09-14] Taipei Times editorials (Sept 14, Oct 17) describe an "Ocean wave" in Shen's favour. They compare it to the 2018 Han Kuo-yu wave in Kaohsiung, a DPP stronghold that flipped. They note that crowds and one poll do not predict the result. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2026/10/17/2003866101 - [2026-10-12] Most likely path to YES: (1) the TVBS house effect makes the true gap about 0–4 points. (2) Most of Huang's 2022 swing voters go to Shen. (3) Youth and recall-movement turnout exceeds 2022 levels. (4) Shen wins the Oct 31 debate and Chiang's mudslinging backfires. (5) The KMT–TPP base does not fully consolidate behind Chiang. Prerequisite: the minor candidates stay near 1%. https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5056 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES is a rapid, multi-pollster narrowing that is possibly close to a tie once TVBS's blue lean is corrected. Chiang's KMT-TPP base may not be fully consolidated. Even Templeman, who is skeptical, now rates the race "leans KMT" rather than "likely KMT." NOT FOUND: Any poll taken after Oct 8 that measures vote intention. Any non-TVBS poll from Oct (Liberty Times, Era, Formosa). The Oct 13 Tai Li-an Taipei poll (only the New Taipei poll from that series was seen). The full Storm article. Any Shen lead in a mainstream poll.

YES means: Puma Shen (DPP) is certified as the winner of the Taipei mayoral election held 2026-11-28, and he becomes the next Mayor of Taipei. - [2026-09-27] Frozen Garlic, an election blog, says Chiang was expected to win comfortably. It says the last two KMT mayors seeking re-election won 56–64%: Ma in 2002 and Hau in 2010. It calls Taipei "blue-leaning" and says Chiang has had no major scandal. The same post says Shen may be at his "peak." It says KMT-side media had no counter-strategy yet, and that "this race is not over." Commenters on the post expect a Chiang win, though one expected Shen to get only about 30%. https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2026/09/27/ocean-current-hits-taipei-mayoral-race/ - [2026-10-17] A Taipei Times op-ed uses the 1998 precedent. Chen Shui-bian had satisfaction above 70% and raised his vote share from 43.67% to 45.91%, but he still lost to Ma Ying-jeou, who took 51.13%. The author says approval and ballots differ, and that rallies and one poll do not predict the result. Han Kuo-yu's 2018 crowds won, but the same crowds did not carry over to 2020. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2026/10/17/2003866101 - [2026-10-08] Detail behind the TVBS 49–41 result: the poll is landline random-digit sampling. TVBS projects turnout near 71%. Shen's support among his own voters is more confident than Chiang's. Chiang leads in 8 of 12 districts and Shen in 4. The Taipei Times calls Shen "the underdog" as of 10-18. Even after months of closing, Shen still trails in the two largest recent polls. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5600275 - [2026-10-09] Trader pricing on Polymarket's sibling multi-outcome market (the Chiang Wan-an contract) showed Chiang about 66% and Shen about 35% as of 10-09, a ~$780k event total. That is a different contract from this one and the figure may be stale. Even so, the market on that date still leaned Chiang. Kuo Hsi was under 1%. https://polymarket.com/event/taipei-mayor-election-winner-20260813125857100/will-chiang-wan-an-win-the-next-taipei-mayor-election-20260813125857101 - [2026-10-07] Shen's 2024 surveillance case produced indictments of 4 private investigators, with 2 Hong Kong clients wanted. Shen said it shows he was targeted by China. The effect on voters is unmeasured. The case also feeds the "security-first, polarising" frame. The Oct 6–7 drug op-ed attack and reports about his father's company doing business in China give the KMT negative material. Shen answered the business report. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9800470 - [2026-09-22] The only poll that put the race at a statistical tie is the Trust in Democracy Association poll. It is the outlier, and its 42–38 "switch to DPP" result is a preference on party control, not a vote count. Chiang's approval was still 52.4%, and 57.8% said Chiang would win. Chiang has the stronger approval, the stronger "expected winner" numbers and incumbency. https://www.visiontimes.com/2026/09/24/chiang-wan-an-leads-shen-po-yang-by-1-2-points-in-taipei-mayoral-poll.html - [2026-10-17] The debate-expectation poll that favours Shen is a landline survey of 1,131 residents, ±2.9 points. It does not measure vote choice. KMT identifiers back Chiang 76% on expectations. TPP identifiers lean to Chiang 58% to 24%, so they still look like a Chiang reservoir. About 55% of neutrals are undecided, and 30% overall have no view. Shen's 11-point lead is on expectations only, and expectations of a rhetorical win are not votes. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4037282 - [2026-10-?? to 10-18] Several analysts frame Shen as the underdog even after the 'Ocean current.' NBR (c. 09-24) says Chiang "appears well positioned." It cites his first-term popularity and a polling lead, and notes only one poll showed a tighter race. A structural point for NO: Chiang won 42.29% in 2022 in a three-way race. The second-place anti-KMT vote was split between Chen (DPP) and Huang. This year the 2022 Huang voters are the swing group, and TVBS has them 53% Shen. https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-look-ahead-to-taiwans-2026-local-elections/ - [2026-10-04 to 10-16] Informal street polls favour Shen in some districts, but they use convenience samples from YouTube channels, with n=50–140. These are not usable evidence for YES. Shen leading in the Shuanglian market area (Shen 29, Chiang 21) is a sample in a DPP-friendly area. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261014004464-260407 - [2026-11-28] Resolution mechanics add little NO risk: the winner is the elected mayor under the CEC's results. The "Other" outcome only applies if no result is known by 2027-06-30, which is unlikely. The binary question therefore comes down to whether Shen finishes first. This favours NO, since a tie or any other result cannot resolve YES. A Shen lead would need to be larger than polling error. https://db.cec.gov.tw/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is that Chiang leads every vote-intention poll and holds incumbency, approval above 50% and a blue-leaning city. Shen has gained quickly from a low base, but that momentum is still untested. Mayors with high approval often win anyway (1998 precedent), and DPP momentum has repeatedly faded in Taipei. NOT FOUND: Any vote-intention poll after Oct 8, other than the debate-expectation poll. A track record of TVBS polls against the 2022 result. Any independent poll average. The Diplomat's full text. Any poll with a Shen lead in a regular scientific poll.