Will South Dakota’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 be above 3,550,000 head?

- [2026-01-30] NASS's Cattle report put South Dakota's Jan 1, 2026 all-cattle-and-calves inventory at 3,550,000 head, which is exactly the strike. The NASS state overview and the state ranking built from Quick Stats both show 3,550 thousand, ranking South Dakota 7th. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=SOUTH+DAKOTA and https://statspanda.com/cattle-inventory-by-state - [2026-01-30] The Jan 2026 components for South Dakota were 1.45M beef cows, 240k milk cows, 435k cattle on feed, steers 710k (690k a year earlier), bulls 100k, and calves under 500 lb 250k (240k a year earlier). The mid-year US report on the same date gave 86.2M head nationally, down slightly from 86.5M. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795748/catl0126.pdf - [2025-01-31] South Dakota's Jan 1, 2025 inventory was also 3.55M, up 3% from 3.45M in 2024. The Jan 2023 figure was 3.55M, down 7%. The series has sat at 3.45–3.55M for several years, and the 3.55M figure has now come up in three of the last four Januaries. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/South_Dakota/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Cattle_Inventory/2025/SD-cattle2501.pdf - [2026-07-24] The July US Cattle report (national only) put the total at 94.2M head against 94.0M a year earlier, up about 0.2%. Beef cows were 28.5M, down 1%. Milk cows were 9.65M, up 2%. Beef replacement heifers were 3.80M, up 3%. The 2026 calf crop was 32.5M, down 2%. Calves under 500 lb were unchanged at 25.6M. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2026/07-24-2026.php and https://www.cattlerange.com/articles/2026/07/usda-july-cattle-inventory-report - [2026-07-24] July cattle on feed in the US (1,000+ head lots) was 11.4M, up 2%. Total cattle on feed in all lots was 13.2M, up 2%. This points to slightly higher feedlot inventory than a year earlier. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/livestock/article/2026/07/27/july-1-cattle-feed-2-year-ago-july-1 - [2026-08-18] The USDA ERS outlook says the decline in beef cows was offset by dairy cows, leaving total cow inventory flat. It also says heifers on feed are well above levels typical of a transition from contraction to expansion. https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29466/ldp-m-386.pdf?v=56616 - [2026-09-18] The latest Cattle on Feed report is dated Sep 18, 2026. I did not read its South Dakota figures. The monthly report only covers feedlots with 1,000+ head in most states. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/cattle-feed - [2026-09-24] SDSU Extension, reported via South Dakota Ag Connection, says heifers were about 40% of sales receipts at the reporting auctions from July 2025 to June 2026. Replacement heifers were 11% of heifers sold, peaking at 20% in Feb 2026. Cow prices stayed strong. https://southdakotaagconnection.com/news/cow-and-heifer-values-remain-strong-in-2026 - [2026-09 (undated)] SDSU Extension says South Dakota's rise in dairy cows from 2025 to 2026 exceeded the fall in beef cows. It also says feeder cattle outside feedlots rose slightly over the past two years. I could only see search-snippet text because the page returned 403 on fetch. https://extension.sdstate.edu/calves-other-sources - [2026-07-27] An Agweek piece cites American Farm Bureau economist Bernt Nelson calling the July replacement-heifer rise the first meaningful sign of retention in nearly a decade. It adds that record-low beef cow numbers and the smallest calf crop on record limit growth. https://www.agweek.com/livestock/cattle/access-to-feed-has-some-producers-looking-to-retain-and-rebuild-herds - [2026-07-24] CattleFax's Patrick Linnell calls the rebuild a slow grind. He describes the heifer-retention increase as only about 100,000 head, which is near the smallest change USDA's rounding can show. https://www.drovers.com/news/cattle-inventory-ticks-higher-herd-rebuild-remains-slow-grind - [Scheduled] NASS's guide says the January report is released on a Friday toward the end of January, with data collected for 15 days from Jan 1. Recent releases were Jan 30, 2026 and Jan 31, 2025. I did not find the exact 2027 date, but the last Friday of January 2027 is Jan 29, inside the Jan 31 close. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Cattle_Inventory/ - [2026-10-18] No South Dakota-specific 2027 estimate exists yet. The resolution source currently shows only the Jan 1, 2026 value of 3.55M. The NASS newsroom listing as of Oct 18 showed no cattle release since July 24. BOTTOM LINE: The strike equals last year's published figure (3,550,000), so "above" requires South Dakota to rise by at least one rounding step, which NASS reports in 50,000-head increments at the state level. National signals through July are roughly flat (+0.2% in July), with beef cows down, dairy up, and feedlot inventory slightly up. NOT FOUND: South Dakota-specific mid-year or current inventory estimate; exact January 2027 release date; South Dakota drought or forage conditions for fall 2026 (the search was blocked); South Dakota figures from the Sep 2026 Cattle on Feed report; analyst forecasts for Jan 2027 state inventory.

- [2026-01-30] SD all cattle and calves on Jan 1, 2026 was 3,550,000 head. That is exactly the strike, and "above 3,550,000" needs a strictly higher figure. NASS rounds state estimates to the nearest 50,000, so the realistic outcomes are 3.50M, 3.55M or 3.60M. Only 3.60M or more resolves Yes. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=SOUTH+DAKOTA - [2025-01-31] Jan 1, 2025 was 3.55M, up 3% from 3.45M on Jan 1, 2024. Beef cows were 1.46M (down 3%), milk cows 215k, and calves under 500 lb 270k (up 23%). https://data.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/South_Dakota/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Cattle_Inventory/2025/SD-cattle2501.pdf - [2024-01-31] Jan 1, 2024 was 3.45M, down 1% from 2023. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/South_Dakota/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Cattle_Inventory/2024/SD-cattle2401.pdf - [2023-01-31] Jan 1, 2023 was 3.55M, down 7% from Jan 1, 2022. That implies about 3.8M in 2022. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/South_Dakota/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Cattle_Inventory/2023/SD-cattle2301.pdf - [2023–2026] Recent Jan 1 series: 3.55M (2023), 3.45M (2024), 3.55M (2025), 3.55M (2026). Three of the last four readings equal the strike and none exceeded it. Year-to-year moves have been 0 to ±100k, apart from the 2022→2023 drop of about 250k. This is a very flat series, so a tie at 3.55M (resolves No) is the most common outcome. - [2026-04-23] SDSU Extension says SD beef cows have declined since 2021, to the lowest level since 1977. Dairy cow growth has partly offset that. In 2026 the dairy increase exceeded the beef decline. Feeder cattle outside feedlots have risen slightly for two years. Cattle on feed were 435k on Jan 1, 2026. 2025 SD inventory was revised slightly lower. https://www.tsln.com/news/south-dakota-beef-cow-numbers-dropping-dairy-cows-increasing/ - [2026-01-30] National Jan 1, 2026 inventory was 86.2M, down 0.2–0.4% from a year earlier. Beef cows were 27.6M (down 1%) and beef replacement heifers 4.71M (up 1%). Milk cows were 9.57M (up 2%). NASS noted state estimates were reallocated to the US total. The calf crop was down 2%. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/catl0126.pdf - [2026-01-30] SD beef cows were flat at about 1.45M in Jan 2026, per analyst commentary on the state-level data. https://www.drovers.com/news/industry/u-s-beef-herd-continues-downward-86-2-million-head - [2026-07-24] US July 1, 2026 inventory was 94.2M, versus 94.0M a year earlier. Beef cows were 28.5M (down 1%), milk cows 9.65M (up 2%), and beef replacement heifers 3.80M (up 3%). The 2026 calf crop is projected at 32.5M (down 2%), and cattle on feed were up 2%. This points to a roughly flat national total with a slowly stabilising beef herd. The July report has no state data. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2026/07-24-2026.php - [2026-07-27] DTN reports the national beef cow herd is at a historic low, with feedlot inventories building slowly as cattle are fed to heavier weights. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/livestock/article/2026/07/27/july-1-cattle-feed-2-year-ago-july-1 - [2026-01-30] The NASS release schedule has the January Cattle report on a Friday near month-end (Jan 30 in 2026). The Jan 2027 release should therefore come before the 2027-01-31 trading close, probably Jan 29, 2027. Estimates carry survey error, and prior-year values get revised. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Cattle_Inventory/ - [2026-04-01] No SD-specific private or expert forecast of the Jan 2027 inventory was found. SDSU material only describes trends. https://extension.sdstate.edu/calves-other-sources BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is a flat series pinned at the strike, since 3.55M was the Jan 1 value in 2023, 2025 and 2026. Rounding to 50k means Yes needs an increase to at least 3.60M, while a repeat of 3.55M resolves No. The drivers are mixed: the SD beef cow herd is still declining, but dairy growth and heavier feeder cattle are offsetting it, and the national herd is roughly flat. NOT FOUND: Any SD-specific forecast or expert estimate for Jan 1, 2027. SD state-level July or mid-year estimates (NASS does not publish them). The original SD Jan 2026 state press release, since the figure comes from the NASS state overview and secondary sources. Drought or pasture conditions for SD in 2026.

YES means: NASS's January 2027 Cattle report shows South Dakota's Jan 1, 2027 all cattle and calves inventory at 3,600,000 or more. NASS rounds state totals to 50,000, so 3,550,000 does not count as "above". - **[2026-09-18] Feedlot inventory in South Dakota is above last year.** The Sept 1, 2026 Cattle on Feed report (1,000+ head lots) shows South Dakota at 205k, which is 105% of the 195k a year earlier. August 1 was 210k, 111% of the year-ago 190k. The Jan 2026 inventory cited 435k on feed in all lots, of which large lots were 230k, so large-lot inventory is running about 5–10% above last year. Because feedlot numbers are counted in the Jan 1 total, this supports a higher year-end count if it holds. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/cofd0926.pdf - **[2026-09-18] Southern and Plains feedlots took fewer cattle, so cattle stay in the feeding chain.** August placements in South Dakota were 20k, 71% of last year's 28k. Marketings were lower nationally. The slower turnover keeps more head on hand at any date. SDSU Extension also credits slower feedlot turnover for the national mid-year increase. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/cofd0926.pdf - **[2026-09-18] The late-year fed-cattle inventory is building.** Brownfield says the national Sept 1 on-feed count of 11.163M, up 1%, implies more ready cattle in coming months. Heavier weights and slower marketings extend the time cattle count in January inventories. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/tight-supplies-continue-to-restrict-cattle-placements/ - **[2026-04-23] The dairy increase is the structural driver.** SDSU Extension says the 2025→2026 rise in South Dakota dairy cows exceeded the fall in beef cows. A Feb 2026 Dairy Herd report says South Dakota added 23,000 cows in a year, up 10.6% in production, and calls it the northern Plains growth engine. Another year of similar growth would add about 20k+ milk cows, plus dairy calves and heifers. That is a large share of one 50k rounding step. https://www.tsln.com/news/south-dakota-beef-cow-numbers-dropping-dairy-cows-increasing/ and https://www.dairyherd.com/news/business/cows-cows-cows-inside-high-speed-surge-u-s-milk-production - **[2026-01 to 2026-07] Beef cows and heifers that have calved in South Dakota were not falling.** The Jan 2026 state data show them up 1% (Agweek). Drovers called South Dakota beef cows flat. That is a break from the 3% drop a year earlier. If retention began after the July national uptick in replacement heifers (+3%), the beef side could turn slightly positive. https://www.agweek.com/livestock/cattle/access-to-feed-has-some-producers-looking-to-retain-and-rebuild-herds - **[2026-09 to 2026-10] SDSU Extension, in its post-July-report analysis, says the national total rose because of more milk cows and slower feedlot turnover.** It says strong cow and heifer prices signal that expansion is warranted. Its 11% share of heifers sold as replacements, peaking at 20% in Feb 2026, indicates South Dakota producers were holding heifers back. The page itself returned 403, so this rests on search-result text. https://extension.sdstate.edu/cow-and-heifer-values - **[2026-02-20] South Dakota's calf drop and steer holdings were already rising at the last count.** Steers over 500 lb were 710k, up from 690k, and calves under 500 lb were 250k, up from 240k (from the earlier colleague report). The Jan 2026 South Dakota heifers-on-feed figure was 95k, against 85k in Dec. The Feb Cattle on Feed report showed South Dakota's on-feed count of 230k, with small lots filling to 255k by June. That supports more non-fed feeder cattle carried into 2027. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795783/cofd0226.pdf - **[2026-08-20 to 2026-10-15] Drought is a double-edged factor.** Pasture and range were 66% poor or very poor in the Aug 20 NWS Aberdeen statement. Drought Monitor on Oct 15 shows 52% of the state in moderate drought and 9% in severe. Early destocking would normally cut inventory. The YES case is that dry pastures push calves into feedlots early and that feedlots keep them, since beef cow culling is limited by record cow prices (Sioux Falls cull cow ratio of 0.73 in H1 2026, against 0.60 in 2021–25). That moves head from pasture to feedlots without removing them. The RFD-TV Oct 5 note says forage is being hauled longer distances, which implies retention, not liquidation, at least so far. https://www.weather.gov/media/abr/DGT/DGT_ABR_08202026.pdf and https://www.rfdtv.com/rfd-tv-weekly-state-by-state-crop-progress-livestock-report-monday-october-5-2026 - **[2026-04] Revisions cut both ways.** SDSU says the 2025 South Dakota total was revised slightly lower, mainly heavy steers and calves. If the 2026 base is revised down, a flat true herd can print as an increase in January 2027. NASS also reallocates state numbers to the national total. The national July total of 94.2M was the first increase since 2018 (Agweek), so reallocation could help. https://www.tsln.com/news/south-dakota-beef-cow-numbers-dropping-dairy-cows-increasing/ BOTTOM LINE: The most likely path to YES is dairy growth plus larger and slower-turning South Dakota feedlot inventories, each worth about +20k, adding up to one rounding step to 3.60M, with beef cows flat. Prerequisites are that drought does not drive heavy cow culling or early sales before January, and that the national uptick shows up in South Dakota's January survey. NOT FOUND: A South Dakota-specific inventory forecast for Jan 1, 2027. Small-lot South Dakota feedlot data after January. State dairy cow counts for mid-to-late 2026 (the Feb 2026 figure is from a secondary source). The exact Jan 2027 release date. South Dakota auction receipts for Sept–Oct 2026 showing cow or heifer liquidation or retention.

YES means: NASS reports South Dakota's Jan 1, 2027 all-cattle-and-calves inventory strictly above 3,550,000 head, which in practice means 3.60M or more. - [2026-09-18] The Sept Cattle on Feed report shows South Dakota 1,000+ head feedlot inventory at 205k on Sept 1, 2026, 105% of 205k... correction: the report lists 195k a year earlier and 210k on Aug 1. SD is up only about 10k head year on year. August placements were 20k, 71% of a year earlier. Feedlot inventory is a small share of the 3.55M total and is only a modest tailwind. It also covers only the 1,000+ head lots in the NASS series. The January 2026 total on feed was 435k, including 205k in small lots. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796064/cofd0926.pdf - [2026-09-18] National August placements were the lowest for August since 1996, 9% below 2025. Marketings were also the lowest for August in the series. The inflow of feeder cattle is thin, which undercuts any large rise in feedlot headcount. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796064/cofd0926.pdf - [2026-08-20] The NWS Aberdeen drought statement shows D3 extreme drought in north-central SD. Statewide pasture and range was rated 66% poor or very poor, and stock ponds were drying up. Supplemental feed was needed, and 30-day precipitation was only 25–50% of normal. A drought like this usually pushes cow and heifer culling up and retention down. https://www.weather.gov/media/abr/DGT/DGT_ABR_08202026.pdf - [2026-08-23] Brownfield, via The Cool Down, reports cattle coming off grass early, poor hay cuttings and feed worries in the Dakotas. Agweek (about Aug 2026) quotes a western SD rancher who had never before brought cattle home from summer pasture before Labor Day. Early destocking points to a lower Jan 1 count of calves and cows, not a higher one. https://www.thecooldown.com/green-business/south-dakota-cattle-drought-pasture-supplies/ and https://www.agweek.com/livestock/cattle/pasture-conditions-rough-across-south-dakota-and-north-dakota-as-drought-continues - [2026-10-08] SDSU's state climatologist says about 63% of SD was still in drought at the end of Sept, down from 69%. Severe-to-extreme drought (D2–D3) fell from 35% to 10% after a very wet September. She called the short-term issues "pretty resolved" but said the long-term effects remain. The relief came after the summer culling and early-weaning decisions, so it is unlikely to reverse them before Jan 1. https://www.agweek.com/weather/is-rain-getting-south-dakota-out-of-drought - [2026-05] An Angus Beef Bulletin analysis concluded that little or no herd rebuilding was indicated for 2026. It warned that drought could interrupt early heifer retention and lift cow slaughter. https://www.angus.org/angus-media/angus-beef-bulletin/abb-extra/2026/05/hn_drought-threatens-the-herd-rebuild - [2026-09-02] USDA estimates beef cow slaughter was down 14.6% for Jan–July, while dairy cow slaughter was up 4.3%. RFD cautions that slaughter data alone do not confirm expansion, and that drought and forage will decide retention. Low beef-cow culling is a national stabiliser, but it does not show growth in SD. https://www.rfdtv.com/beef-cow-slaughter-drops-as-retention-signals-strengthen - [2026-09-18 (approx.)] A Beef Magazine analysis says heifer slaughter was down 11.3% through mid-September. The July replacement-heifer rise of 100k may include "impulse" heifers. It says the heifer calves available to breed in 2026 were unchanged from a year earlier. The national July gain is therefore small and fragile, and one-tenth of it spread across states cannot be expected to lift SD by 50k. https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/turning-the-corner-on-the-cattle-cycle - [2026-04-23] The Meat Animals summary (April 2026) shows the Jan 1, 2026 SD inventory of 3,550.0 thousand. Deaths were 60k cattle and 80k calves in 2025. NASS can revise 2025 numbers, as SDSU notes it did for the 2025 estimate. A ≥50k jump from the same base needs a net gain, since a flat year gives 3.55M, which is No. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/meatan26.pdf - [2026-07-27] The Agweek/AFBF note says SD beef cows plus replacements were nearly flat in January 2026. The farm bureau economist described the national herd as stabilising, not growing. The 2026 calf crop is projected down 2% nationally, and calves are a direct part of the Jan 1 count. https://www.agweek.com/livestock/cattle/access-to-feed-has-some-producers-looking-to-retain-and-rebuild-herds - [2026-10-18] The USDA Cattle release page shows only Jan 30, 2026 and Jul 24, 2026. The Jan 2027 report is not yet listed. The state figure is not published until about Jan 29, 2027. Nothing before then can resolve the question Yes. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/cattle BOTTOM LINE: A No needs only a repeat of 3.55M or a decline. Drought, early destocking, a smaller national calf crop and thin feeder placements all point toward flat or lower numbers, and ties resolve No. Yes needs a net rise of at least 50k. Only the small feedlot gain (+10k year on year in September) and dairy growth lean the other way. NOT FOUND: Any SD-specific Jan 2027 forecast. SD cow slaughter or heifer retention data for 2026. The SD Cattle on Feed total (all lots) for fall 2026. The exact Jan 2027 release date.