How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? — At least 14.00M bpd

Question ambiguity: the rules say only "produces at least 14.00 million bpd". I read that as most likely the EIA annual 2026 average, but a single-month or weekly figure is possible. I could not confirm which. The 2026 annual forecast is about 0.13M bpd below the threshold. Monthly and weekly readings sit just below 14.0. - [2026-10-06] EIA's October STEO (forecast completed Oct 1) puts 2026 US crude production at 13.9M bpd, against 13.7M in 2025 and 14.3M in 2027. Next STEO is due 2026-11-10. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf (the STEO landing page https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ confirms the Oct 6 release and the Nov 10 next-release date). - [2026-10-08] Advisor Perspectives gives the October STEO 2026 figure as 13.87M bpd, up 0.29% from September. The 2027 figure is 14.30M. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/10/08/short-term-energy-outlook-october-2026 - [2026-09-30] EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) showed July 2026 output at 13.95M bpd, up from 13.84M in June. The monthly record is about 14.00M, set in October 2025. Reuters/EnergyNow: https://energynow.com/2026/09/us-crude-oil-output-rose-in-july-while-petroleum-demand-declined-eia-says/ - [2026-10-05, approx.] Peak Oil Barrel, using PSM data, puts July 2026 at 13,948 kb/d. It says this is 47 kb/d short of the October 2025 high of 13,995 kb/d. Other sources give April 2026 as 13.967M. That April figure is probably the pre-revision number; a later revision cut it. https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-july-oil-production-just-short-of-new-high/ (seen in search snippet only; fetch returned 403). - [2026-10-15] The EIA weekly report for the week ending Oct 9 put production at 13.679M bpd, down 300k from the prior week's 13.979M. Weekly figures are rounded estimates. https://techflowpost.com/en-US/newsletter/140154 - [2026-09-25] Weekly production for the week ending Sep 25 was about 14.0M, per a secondary aggregator. https://worldoilmonitor.com/eia-report - [2026-07-31] Weekly production ran 13.80–13.86M in June–July. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production - [2026-10-16] Baker Hughes counted 459 oil rigs, down 3 on the week, and 603 total rigs, which is 10% above a year earlier. A week earlier oil rigs were at 462, the highest since May 2025. Permian rigs were 274 on Oct 9, the highest since June 2025. Rig additions point to growth later, not within Q4 2026. https://boereport.com/2026/10/09/us-energy-firms-add-rigs-for-fourth-time-in-five-weeks-to-highest-since-2024-baker-hughes-says/ and https://rallies.ai/news/us-energy-firms-leave-rig-count-unchanged-this-week-baker-hughes-says-077845723e395cc6 - [2026-10-06] EIA's October STEO raised its Brent forecast to $105/b for Q4 2026. The Middle East (Iran war, Hormuz) supply disruption is supporting prices and US output. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ - [2026-08-13] The August STEO had 2026 at 13.80M; the highest annual figure before 2026 was 13.586M in 2025 on the PSM annual page. The forecast has since drifted up, from 13.8M in August and September to 13.87M in October. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_predicts_record_annual_usa_oil_output_in_2026-13-aug-2026-184372-article/ - [2026-10-21] Scheduled: the next weekly petroleum report is due Oct 21. The PSM covering August is due about Oct 30. The STEO is due Nov 10, and the PSM covering September is due about Nov 30. https://financefeeds.com/brent-crude-oil-price-110-week-ahead-highest-settle-since-may-bull-115-bear-100 (the PSM dates are my estimate from the usual end-of-month schedule). BOTTOM LINE: On an annual-average basis, EIA's latest forecast of 13.87M bpd for 2026 is below 14.00M. Reaching 14.00M would need a large upward revision, because January–July was already below it. If the contract resolves on any single month or week, 14.00M is only about 50k bpd above the July reading. A rounded weekly print of about 14.0M has already occurred (week ending Sep 25, from a secondary source), and the monthly record is 14.00M (Oct 2025). NOT FOUND: Kalshi's exact resolution source and metric (annual average vs. monthly vs. weekly). The August 2026 PSM figure. A fetched primary EIA weekly production table (EIA weekly figures came only via secondary sites). The full text of the Peak Oil Barrel and Reuters/BOE pages (403 on fetch).

**Ambiguity:** the rules do not say whether "produces at least 14.00M bpd" means a calendar-year average, a single month, or a weekly print. The title says "this year", which points to the annual average. I found no resolution-source detail beyond that. - [2026-10-06] EIA's October STEO puts 2026 US crude production (incl. lease condensate) at 13.9M bpd, against 13.7M in 2025 and 14.3M in 2027. This is rounded, and the full-precision figure is in the PDF. The September STEO had 13.83M for 2026. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-09-23] The September STEO (Rigzone summary) had quarterly 2026 output of 13.58M in Q1, 13.84M in Q2, 13.88M in Q3 and 14.02M in Q4. It had 2026 at 13.83M and 2027 at 14.26M. That is up from 13.80M and 14.15M in August. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_oil_production_forecasts_for_2026_2027-23-sep-2026-184687-article/ - [2026-09-23] Base rate for the annual test: US crude output has never averaged 14M bpd in any year, per EIA figures. The highest year is 2025 at 13.662M, and 2024 was 13.267M. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_oil_production_forecasts_for_2026_2027-23-sep-2026-184687-article/ - [2026-09-23] Base rate for the monthly test: no month has averaged 14M bpd or more. The record in that data page, through June 2026, was 13.995M in October 2025. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_oil_production_forecasts_for_2026_2027-23-sep-2026-184687-article/ - [2026-09-30] Latest Petroleum Supply Monthly: July 2026 output was 13.95M bpd, up from 13.84M in June. Reuters says the monthly record is "14.00 million bpd" in October 2025, which is the same 13.995M. The next PSM is due Oct 30 (August data). https://energynow.com/2026/09/us-crude-oil-output-rose-in-july-while-petroleum-demand-declined-eia-says/ and https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/monthly/ - [2026-10-05] Peak Oil Barrel says July output was 47 kb/d below the October 2025 high, and that Texas has plateaued near 5.8M bpd since July 2025. Its figures are 13,948 and 13,995 kb/d. The page was blocked on direct fetch and I read it only via search snippet. https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-july-oil-production-just-short-of-new-high/ - [2026-10-18] Weekly series: a third-party aggregator says the week ending Oct 2 reached 13.979M, the highest in the weekly series. Trading Economics shows the latest weekly at 13.679M, which looks like a drop of about 300 kb/d the following week. The weekly series is volatile, and an earlier weekly print was 13.22M on Jan 30. I could not verify these on EIA's own page. https://eco3min.fr/en/us-crude-oil-production-dataset/ and https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-production - [2026-08-13] The August STEO had 2026 at 13.80M, the highest of the eight 2026 STEOs to that point. EIA's December 2025 STEO had forecast 13.5M, so forecasts have been revised up all year. April 2026 was a monthly peak of about 13.97M in the data then available. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_predicts_record_annual_usa_oil_output_in_2026-13-aug-2026-184372-article/ - [2026-09-10] EIA says 1H26 output averaged 13.7M bpd, up 0.3M year on year. It cites higher prices from the Middle East war, with Brent forecast at $105 in Q4 2026. Four new projects are expected online by end-2026. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-10-06] Forecast arithmetic: Jan–Jul 2026 actuals are roughly 13.6–13.95M (Q1 was 13.58M, Q2 13.84M, July 13.95M). Reaching a 14.00M annual average would need Aug–Dec to average far above any month on record. EIA's Q4 forecast is only about 14.0M. The 2026 annual figure is therefore effectively out of reach by the annual test. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_oil_production_forecasts_for_2026_2027-23-sep-2026-184687-article/ - [2026-09-23] Outside view: EIA's own STEO has about 14.0M for Q4 2026 and 14.12M for Q1 2027. A single month, or a weekly print, at or above 14.00M before Jan 1, 2027 is plausible but would be a first. The Q4 forecast is a quarterly average and sits right at the threshold. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_oil_production_forecasts_for_2026_2027-23-sep-2026-184687-article/ - [2026-10-18] Timing: October and November monthly PSM data come out Dec 30 and Jan 30, so a monthly YES may not be known before the Jan 1 close. Weekly prints come out every Wednesday. No Q4 PSM data exist yet. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/monthly/ BOTTOM LINE: On the annual-average reading, the base rate is zero: no year has ever reached 14M, and EIA's 2026 forecast is about 13.8–13.9M, so this is very unlikely. On a monthly or weekly-print reading, July at 13.95M and the 13.98M weekly high sit just under the threshold, and EIA's Q4 forecast is about 14.0M, so it is a near-coin-flip. The first reading is the more likely one given "this year" in the title. NOT FOUND: Kalshi's exact resolution source and whether it uses an annual, monthly or weekly figure (sibling Kalshi contracts exist but I did not check them). Third-party or analyst forecasts other than EIA (IEA, Goldman and others). Direct EIA weekly page data for October 2026. A fetched page for the Peak Oil Barrel report (403).

YES means: the US is shown to have produced at least 14.00M bpd of crude oil before Jan 1, 2027. Read literally, this is most plausibly met by a single EIA weekly or monthly reading at or above 14.00M. It could also be met by a 2026 annual average at or above 14.00M, but that path is almost closed. - [2026-10-07] Energy Intelligence says the EIA weekly estimate for the week ending Oct 2 rose 24k to a record 13.98M bpd. Admiral Markets gives the unrounded figure as 13,979 kb/d. The weekly series is therefore about 21 kb/d below the threshold. Only a few kb/d of drift or rounding stands between it and a weekly print of 14.0M or more. https://www.energyintel.com/000001a1-16db-de4b-affb-36dbb1f00000 (fetched), https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/eia-crude-oil-inventories-october-2026 - [2026-10-12 to 10-16] The 300k drop in the week ending Oct 9 is a storm artifact, not underlying decline. Boxwood reports the drop was partly due to Hurricane Isaias shut-ins. MMA/BSEE data show Gulf shut-ins peaked at about 1.46M bpd on Oct 9 and fell to about 0.60M by Oct 12. Shut-ins are deferred output, and by Oct 12 undamaged platforms were restarting. Weeks ending Oct 16 and later should rebound toward the 13.98M pre-storm level. https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/u-s-gulf-of-america-oil-and-gas-activities-in-response-to-hurricane-isaias/ and https://boxwoodapp.com/news - [2026-09-23] The September STEO has Q4 2026 at 14.02M bpd. Its Q4 split is Lower 48 ex-Gulf at 11.53M, Gulf at 1.98M and Alaska at 0.51M. The Alaska step up from Q3's 0.44M to 0.51M is a seasonal tailwind that EIA builds in. Alaska recovery after summer maintenance adds about 70k bpd, which would help weekly and monthly prints. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_oil_production_forecasts_for_2026_2027-23-sep-2026-184687-article/ (fetched) - [2026-10-06] EIA's October STEO raised 2026 to 13.87M and 2027 to 14.30M, per the earlier report. Each STEO since August has revised up (13.80M, then 13.83M, then 13.87M). The Q4 average therefore likely sits at or above 14.0M in the October vintage. Individual Q4 months would then be at or above 14.0M, and EIA has been revising up as actuals beat it. The PSM actuals for July rose 110k m/m to 13.95M (the Sept 30 PSM). https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ - [2026-09-23] The monthly record is close. Rigzone, quoting EIA data pages, lists October 2025 at 13.995M, November 2025 at 13.927M and September 2025 at 13.917M. The July 2026 PSM was 13.95M. A rounded "14.0" or a small upward revision to a recent month would meet 14.00M. EIA often revises recent months up, as with the 2025 annual figure, which went from 13.59M to 13.66M between the August and September STEOs. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_oil_production_forecasts_for_2026_2027-23-sep-2026-184687-article/ (fetched) - [2026-10-12] Price support is strong. Rigzone's price widget on the fetched page shows WTI at about $101 and Brent at about $110. Admiral Markets had WTI at about $92.75 on Oct 8, and Bauer's Wellhead had Brent at $106.65 on Oct 12. The Iran war, the Hormuz disruption and attacks in Saudi Arabia support prices well above the $61–69 Permian breakevens. Reported breakevens and the Sept 10 EIA note tie the Permian growth to these prices. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 and https://bauersubsurface.substack.com/p/the-wellhead-october-14-2026 - [2026-07 to 2026-10] Producers are letting activity rise. Diamondback and others began growing output (AAPG, Jun 1). S&P Global expects "production creep" toward the high end of guidance (EnergyNow). Kimbell raised Q4 2026 guidance by about 15% at the midpoint (SEC 8-K). Rig counts reached their highest since 2024 (colleagues' Oct 9 and Oct 16 reports). Completions lag rigs by about 4–6 months, so rigs added since spring feed into Q4 output. https://www.aapg.org/news-and-media/explorer/u-s-independents-begin-increasing-oil-production-in-response/ and https://energynow.com/2026/07/shale-trades-go-go-days-of-growth-for-output-creep/ - [2026-09-23] Gulf contribution: the Sept STEO has the Federal Gulf at 2.01M in Q3 and 1.98M in Q4, and four new projects came online in the past year. That is a high Gulf base, about 60k above the 2025 average of 1.94M. Post-hurricane restarts should return it to that level. https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_raises_usa_oil_production_forecasts_for_2026_2027-23-sep-2026-184687-article/ - [2026-10-18] The most likely path to YES is a weekly EIA print of 14.00M or more in the weeks ending Oct 16 through Dec 25. It needs five conditions: - Gulf output rebounds fully after Isaias. - Alaska output stays at or near 0.5M. - The Lower 48 holds at or above its early-October pace. - EIA's weekly estimate methodology, which is anchored to STEO, tracks the roughly 14.0M Q4 STEO path. - The question counts the weekly series. There are about 10 weekly prints left, and the series needs only about +21 kb/d from its Oct 2 high. A monthly path is a weaker secondary one: the October PSM, due Dec 30, would need to revise up to 14.00M or more. The annual path (2026 average of at least 14.00M) is not plausible. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php BOTTOM LINE: The best case for YES is a weekly or monthly print at or above 14.00M. The Oct 2 weekly value (13.979M) was 21 kb/d short, the Oct 9 drop was storm-driven, and the Q4 STEO sits at about 14.0M with upward revisions all year. The annual-average reading has no support. NOT FOUND: Kalshi's resolution source and metric (annual, monthly or weekly). The EIA weekly value for the week ending Oct 16 (due Oct 21). Full text of the October STEO's Q4 quarterly numbers (only the September vintage was fetched). Analyst forecasts for Q4 output from outside EIA.

YES means: the US produces at least 14.00M bpd of crude oil in 2026, i.e. the resolving EIA figure (most likely the 2026 annual average, but possibly a single month or week) reaches 14.00M before Jan 1, 2027. - [2026-10-01/06] The October STEO's Table 3d gives US crude quarterly figures. Q1 was 13.58, Q2 13.88 and Q3 13.95. Q4 is forecast at 14.05, and the 2026 annual figure is 13.87. For the annual average to reach 14.00, the remaining months would need to average well above 14.05. Q4 is only a forecast and sits just above the line. The Q3 figure (13.95) is itself an estimate, and the same table shows the 2025 Q4 value as 13.91. That is below the 13.995 monthly record, which suggests quarterly averages smooth over any single-month spike. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/3dtab.pdf - [2026-10-18] Annual arithmetic: 13.87 is the average of roughly 13.58 (Q1), 13.88, 13.95 and 14.05. Even if Q4 came in at 14.50 (the 2027 Q4 forecast level), the year would average only about 14.0 (13.58+13.88+13.95+14.50 = 55.91, divided by 4 gives 13.98). That is still below 14.00. So the annual reading needs a Q4 far above anything EIA projects. Calculated from https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/3dtab.pdf - [2026-10-15] The EIA weekly table for the week ending Oct 9 shows production at 13,679, down 300 from 13,979 the prior week. The Lower 48 fell 276 to 13,214, and Alaska fell 24 to 465. The same table shows the four-week average at 13,888 and the year-ago four-week average at 13,568. EIA now rounds weekly production to the nearest 1,000 b/d instead of 100,000. The latest weekly print is therefore well below 14.0, and the four-week average is about 112k short. https://ir.eia.gov/secure/wpsr/overview.pdf (retrieved via search; the URL is a signed link) - [2026-10-07/14] The 13.979 print for the week ending Oct 2 (up from 13.955 the week before) was itself below 14.000. No weekly print has been shown at or above 14.000 in the primary table, so the "weekly ≥14.0" route has not yet been met on unrounded data. The earlier "about 14.0" weekly reading for Sep 25 came from an aggregator and was 13.955 on unrounded data. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Oil-Inventories-See-Massive-Drop-Off.html - [2026-10-18] Monthly route: the PSM series (MCRFPUS2) shows the record at 13,995 (Oct 2025) and the latest value at 13,948 (July 2026), per a dataset page citing the Sep 30 release. July would need another +52 kb/d. The monthly data has never hit 14,000, and the one near-miss, Oct 2025, was 5 kb/d short. Neither of the next two PSM releases covers Q4: the Oct 30 release covers August, and the Nov 30 release covers September. The October figure comes out only on Dec 30. A monthly YES would therefore rest on October or November data that is not yet published. https://eco3min.fr/en/us-crude-oil-production-dataset/ - [2026-09-10] EIA's own analysis puts 1H26 growth at 0.3M year on year, concentrated in the Permian and the federal Gulf. It cites four offshore projects that came online in the past year and four more small ones due by year-end. The projects are small, and the same text warns that Gulf hurricanes can disrupt output, with the season running through November. Growth from new Gulf projects is incremental (tens of kb/d each). https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-10-06] The Q4 forecast depends on price. The STEO's $105 Brent for Q4 assumes Middle East shut-ins of 4.5M b/d. It also says prices will "generally fall" from the early-October average, falling to $87 by 2Q27. Spot Brent was $114 in September and peaked at $131 on Sep 15. Any ceasefire or reopening of Hormuz would cut prices. Output responds with a lag of several months, so near-term barrels are set by wells already drilled. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php - [2026-10-18] Texas has plateaued near 5.77M (July 2026 state data), and total US output was 13,948, up only 1.6% year on year. That is slow growth for an economy with $90+ WTI. Producers are not raising output quickly even at those prices. https://worldoilmonitor.com/oil-production-by-state - [2026-08] Forecast track record cuts both ways. The Jan 2026 STEO had 2026 at 13.6M, with production flat and 2027 falling. EIA has revised upward every month since, to 13.87. Upward drift from 13.80 to 13.87 in two months is small (about 35k per month). Another +130k within one month is unlikely, as the next STEO on Nov 10 will carry little new actual data (only the August PSM). https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_sees_usa_crude_oil_production_dropping_in_2026_2027-21-jan-2026-182820-article/ - [2026-10-18] Title wording and resolution mechanics: "this year" plus "between Issuance and before January 1, 2027" is most naturally an annual figure. EIA does not publish a final annual 2026 figure until 2027 (the Petroleum Supply Annual comes mid-year, and the STEO's January 2027 edition carries an estimate). The only annual numbers available before the deadline are STEO forecasts, and the latest (Oct) is 13.87. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php BOTTOM LINE: Under the annual-average reading, NO is near-certain. Even a Q4 at the 2027-Q4 forecast level (14.50) would leave 2026 at about 13.98, and no year has reached 14.0. Under the monthly or weekly readings, the 13.995 monthly record and the 13.679 latest weekly print have both fallen short of 14.000, and the data that could settle a monthly YES (October or November) will not be published before Jan 1. NOT FOUND: Kalshi's exact resolution source and metric; the August 2026 PSM figure (due Oct 30); the week-ending Oct 16 weekly figure (due Oct 21); any non-EIA forecast (IEA, Goldman, etc.) of US output.