Will Mississippi’s foodsize catfish sales by live weight for 2026 be above 194.3 million pounds?

- [2026-10-18] NASS has not yet published the 2026 figure. The calendar-2026 Mississippi foodsize live-weight sales total will come in the February 2027 Catfish Production report. NASS's survey guide says the January survey feeds a February report with sales by size for the major states. A February report carries water area, grower inventory and sales numbers by size groups; a July report carries water area and grower inventory. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Catfish_Production/index.php - [2026-02-09] The February 2026 report (the 2025 baseline year) put Mississippi total sales at $233.3M in 2025, up from $224.8M in 2024. Mississippi production acres fell from 29,900 to 28,500. I could not read the 2025 Mississippi foodsize live-weight line in the fetched text, so I could not confirm that the 194.3M threshold equals it. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt - [2026-02-20] SeafoodSource, summarizing NASS: Mississippi sold 141 million food-size catfish in 2025 for nearly $214M, up from 137 million in 2024 for nearly $211M. That implies foodsize sales rose modestly in 2025. https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/aquaculture/us-catfish-sales-up-slightly-in-2025-though-prices-remain-flat - [2026-02-09] Foodsize inventory on Jan 1, 2026 was sharply lower, which is the main supply signal for 2026 sales. Nationally, large foodsize fish were down 22%. The report also gave medium foodsize down 41% to 39.5M and small foodsize down 20% to 69.9M. These are US-wide figures, not Mississippi-only. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.pdf - [2026-02-09] The prior-year Mississippi comparison: on Jan 1, 2025, Mississippi held 74.1M foodsize fish with 104.6M lb live weight. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Mississippi/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Catfish/2025/msfishjan25.pdf - [2026-07-15] The July 2026 report (three-state census) showed foodsize inventory at 93.4M fish on Jul 1, 2026, a slight decline from a year earlier. Acres allocated to foodsize fish for Jul–Dec were 32,100, down 6% from 2025. Medium foodsize fish were 24.6M (up 2%) and small were 66.6M (down slightly). Large foodsize fish were 2.19M (down 13%). A Mississippi-only breakdown was not in the source I read. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-nass-catfish-production-report-july-15-2026/ - [2026-08-03] MSU Extension says Mississippi had 28,500 acres in 2026, down 5% (about 1,400 acres). It cites producers reporting costs above fish prices since 2023 and high input costs and delays in harvesting hurting farms. Feed is over $400 per ton. Delayed harvests are a point against 2026 volume. https://extension.msstate.edu/news/crop-report/2026/programs-lend-hand-catfish-producers - [2026-09-16] The Mississippi Department of Agriculture's processing report for August 2026 shows 7.33M lb processed. Of that, 6.92M lb were 0–4 lb fish at an average $1.24/lb delivered to the plant. Only four plants were reporting. This is one month and I found no year-ago comparison. https://agnet.mdac.ms.gov/msFarmersMarkets/catfishReporting - [2026-03] A Farm Bureau piece describes thin margins, bird predation, hatchery disruptions and breakeven costs of about $1.15/lb. https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/americas-top-farm-raised-fish-faces-growing-pressures - [2027-02] The NASS Catfish Production release date for 2027 is not confirmed. The 2026 edition came out Feb 9, 2026 and the 2025 edition Feb 10, 2025, so a release around Feb 8–10, 2027 fits before the Feb 28, 2027 close. The Jan 2027 survey is the only remaining scheduled data event. BOTTOM LINE: No 2026 outcome data exist yet. The signals available today are mixed. Acreage is falling (Mississippi down about 5%), Jan 1, 2026 US foodsize inventories were much lower, and the MSU Extension piece reports harvest delays. On the other side, Mississippi's 2025 sales value rose and Jul 1, 2026 three-state foodsize inventory was only slightly down. I could not confirm that 194.3M lb is the 2025 Mississippi figure. NOT FOUND: Mississippi's 2025 foodsize live-weight total from the Feb 2026 report (the table section was truncated). The Mississippi-only July 2026 inventory. Year-ago processing volumes for comparison. The 2027 NASS release date. Any Mississippi 2026 YTD sales data.

- [2026-02-09] The NASS Catfish Production report of Feb 9, 2026 puts 2025 US catfish sales at $394M, up 1% from 2024. Mississippi total sales were $233.3M in 2025, against $224.8M in 2024. Mississippi's 2025 foodsize live-weight total was not visible in the text I retrieved. The 194.3M lb threshold is probably the 2025 figure, but I could not confirm that. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.pdf - [2026-02-09] Foodsize inventory on Jan 1, 2026 fell sharply across the US. Large fish were down 22%, medium down 41% to 39.5M fish, and small down 20% to 69.9M. Stockers on hand were down 8% (large) while small stockers were up 5%. Smaller foodsize inventory implies less fish available to sell in 2026. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.pdf - [2026-02-09] Mississippi's water surface for Jan–Jun 2026 was 28,500 acres, down from 29,900 in 2025. Total US water area was down 8%, to 48,115 acres. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.pdf - [2026-07-15] The July 2026 report shows Mississippi's Jul–Dec 2026 water area at 27,900 acres, against 28,100 in 2025. Mississippi foodsize acres were 20,300, against 21,400 (about -5%). https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/cfpd0726.pdf - [2026-07-15] On July 1, 2026, the three-state foodsize inventory was 93.4M fish, down slightly year on year. Large foodsize was down 13%, medium up 2%, and small about flat. Mississippi medium foodsize was 16.5M fish and 30.5M lb, against 16.0M fish and 29.5M lb in 2025. Mississippi large foodsize was 4.25M lb, against 4.75M lb. Stockers were down 16%. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/cfpd0726.pdf - [2025-02-10] History of Mississippi foodsize sales. 2022 sales were $262M, up 8% from 2021. 2023 sales were $235M, down 10%. The 2024 figure was first reported as $185M, down 26% from 2023. A later revision put 2024 at about $211M. Sales were volatile and trended down in 2023–24 before roughly stabilizing in 2025. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Mississippi/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Catfish/2025/msfishjan25.pdf - [2026-02] SeafoodSource reports that Mississippi sold 141M foodsize fish for nearly $214M in 2025, against 137M fish and $211M in 2024. That is a rise of about 3% in fish count. The prior-year figures here differ from the originally published 2024 numbers, which shows that NASS revises. https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/aquaculture/us-catfish-sales-up-slightly-in-2025-though-prices-remain-flat - [2025-02-10] The 2025 report's Jan 1, 2025 Mississippi foodsize inventory was 104.6M lb, down 15% from 123.1M lb. That was followed by 2025 sales holding steady, so the inventory-to-next-year-sales link is loose. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/bg257f046/5999q0580/kw52m566d/cfpd0225.pdf - [2026-08-03] MSU Extension says 2026 Mississippi acreage is 28,500, down 5%. It says farm costs have exceeded fish prices since 2023, that processor backlogs delay harvests, and that remaining farmers are intensifying production (more aeration, hybrid catfish, vaccinated fingerlings). The acreage decline of about 5% a year is a long-running trend (33,000 acres in 2023, then 29,900, then 28,100). Yield per acre has historically offset part of it. https://extension.msstate.edu/news/crop-report/2026/programs-lend-hand-catfish-producers - [2026-07-27] Trade press reports that producers are shifting pond space toward future production, because younger-fish inventories declined. https://www.allagnews.com/catfish-farms-shift-ponds-toward-rebuilding-future-supplies/ - [2026-06-05] USDA awarded a 192,000 lb catfish procurement contract. It is too small to move the total. https://www.seafoodnews.com/Story/1345045/USDA-Awards-848160-Catfish-Contract-to-Single-Mississippi-Producer - [2026-10-18] The report covering calendar 2026 is not out yet. It is expected around early-to-mid February 2027, before the 2027-02-28 close, as past releases came on Feb 9–10. The Feb 2026 report was out Feb 9, 2026. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Catfish_Production/index.php BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is a downward drift in Mississippi acreage (about -5% a year), with 2025 sales roughly flat after the 2023–24 slump. Jan 1, 2026 foodsize inventories were much lower, which points to 2026 live-weight sales at or below the 2025 level, and the threshold is probably the 2025 figure. Jul 2026 data show Mississippi medium fish holding up, so the case is not one-sided. Year-to-year changes in this series have often exceeded ±5%, and the data are subject to revision. NOT FOUND: Mississippi's published 2025 foodsize live-weight total (the omitted sales table) and the Mississippi state release for 2026. The history of live-weight sales for 2015–2024 and any analyst or market forecast for the 2026 Mississippi figure.

YES means: USDA NASS's February 2027 Catfish Production report shows Mississippi foodsize live-weight sales for calendar 2026 above 194.3 million lb. - [2026-02-09] The February 2026 NASS release states that 2025 US foodsize sales were $367M, "increased slightly". Mississippi total sales rose to $233.3M from $224.8M while Mississippi acres fell. So value rose even as acreage shrank. This is evidence of intensification, and it is the base for a flat-to-up volume path. The table with Mississippi's foodsize live-weight sales (the 194.3M figure) was omitted from the fetched text, so I could not confirm that 194.3M is the 2025 figure. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt - [2026-08-03] MSU Extension says the USDA Section 32 purchase of $20M of catfish was set aside on July 23, 2026. Extension's Avery says the purchases reduce surplus inventory. He also says struggling producers are "warehousing" fish in ponds waiting for better prices. This is a YES mechanism: fish held back from 2025 and early 2026 become marketable. A $20M purchase would also pull more fish through plants in H2 2026. The ELAP bird-depredation payment of $600/acre also eases the squeeze on farms. https://extension.msstate.edu/news/crop-report/2026/programs-lend-hand-catfish-producers - [2026-09-25] The US Foods/Urner Barry Farmer's Report (data as of Sept 22, 2026) says domestic catfish processors report steady prices. There is no sign of a demand collapse that would cut volumes. https://www.usfoods.com/tools-tips-and-ideas/articles-and-publications/farmer-s-report/seafood - [2026-09-16] The August 2026 Mississippi processing report shows 7.33M lb processed, and 6.92M of that was 0–4 lb fish. At 7.33M lb/month, the annualized run-rate is about 88M lb. That is a partial plant sample (four reporting plants). The threshold is about 194M lb live weight statewide, so the sample covers only a fraction of the total and is not comparable. https://agnet.mdac.ms.gov/msFarmersMarkets/catfishReporting - [2026-07-15] The July 2026 report's Mississippi live-weight line is a reason for caution in the other direction. Medium foodsize live weight was 30.5M lb versus 29.5M lb a year earlier. Large foodsize was 4.25M lb versus 4.75M lb. Mississippi Jul–Dec foodsize acres were 20,300 versus 21,400. Medium fish are the market-ready core, so a slightly larger medium pool going into H2 is the best YES prerequisite. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795980/cfpd0726.pdf - [2025-02-10] The inventory-to-sales link is loose. Mississippi's Jan 1, 2025 foodsize inventory was 104.6M lb, down 15% from 123.1M lb. Yet 2025 sales were up, with fish count 141M versus 137M (SeafoodSource, Feb 2026). The Jan 1, 2025 stock of 74.1M fish was below the 141M sold, because small fish growing in and fish stocked during the year are sold within 12 months. Low January inventory therefore does not by itself cap annual sales. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Mississippi/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Catfish/2025/msfishjan25.pdf - [2026-02-09] US Jan 1, 2026 stocker and fingerling inventories rose (small stockers up 5%, fingerlings up 9%). That gives some pipeline to sell as foodsize within 2026, though most of those fish grow out over 18–24 months. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt - [2025-04] The MDAC 2025 fact sheet cites typical production of 5,000 lb/acre. On about 28,000 acres that is about 140M lb, below 194M. That implies NASS sales come from higher-yield intensive ponds, so intensification (hybrid catfish, aeration) can move volumes. It is a mechanism, not a forecast. https://agnet.mdac.ms.gov/agManage/uploads/3254.pdf - [2024-07-25] Precedent: in 2024, acreage fell by 3,000 acres year on year, yet MSU's Maples said processing was 2% higher in H1 2024 than a year earlier. Volume can rise despite acreage cuts. https://extension.msstate.edu/news/crop-report/2024/catfish-producers-navigate-challenges BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is that Mississippi's 2026 volume at least matches 2025's because ponds hold more fish to be cleared (Section 32 buying, delayed harvests finally processed). Medium foodsize inventory on Jul 1 was slightly above a year earlier, and intensification has offset acreage losses before. YES needs both that and a 2025 baseline close to 194.3M lb. NOT FOUND: Mississippi's 2025 foodsize live-weight total (omitted from the fetched text). A 2026 Mississippi state release. Year-ago processing volumes. Any 2026 year-to-date Mississippi sales or total processing figure.

YES means: NASS's February 2027 Catfish Production report shows Mississippi's 2026 foodsize live-weight sales total above 194.3 million pounds. - [2026-02-09] The threshold is confirmed as the 2025 figure. The Feb 9, 2026 report's sales table has Mississippi foodsize live weight at 194,300 thousand lb in 2025 (141.0M fish, 1.4 lb average). The 2024 figure shown is 189,800 thousand lb. YES therefore needs 2026 to beat the 2025 record in this series. The threshold stays fixed even if NASS revises 2025. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt - [2026-02-09] The Jan 1, 2026 Mississippi foodsize inventory was 68.46M fish and 92.55M lb, against 93.95M fish and 131.1M lb a year earlier. That is down about 29% in pounds and 27% in fish. Mississippi medium fish fell from 36.0M to 22.4M (67.8M lb to 42.4M lb). Large fell from 5.3M lb to 3.85M lb. Small fell from 58.0M lb to 46.3M lb. Mississippi's sales-to-opening-inventory ratio in 2025 was about 1.48 (194.3 / 131.1). Applying that ratio to 92.55M lb gives roughly 137M lb, far below the threshold. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt - [2026-02-09] The Jan 1, 2025 inventory in the 2026 report (131.1M lb) is far above the 104.6M lb first published in Feb 2025. NASS revised it up about 25%. Revisions are large and mostly upward, so a low-looking inventory could also be revised later. The 2026 sales figure is, however, a first-print number. Resolution uses the first Feb 2027 print, which tends to be lower than later revised values. This is a technicality that favours NO. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt - [2026-02-09] Mississippi's pipeline behind the foodsize fish was thin. Small stockers rose (94.9M to 102.0M fish), but large stockers fell (37.4M to 35.3M). Stockers are not foodsize and take roughly 12 months or more to reach it. The extra fingerlings (200M to 219M) can't reach market weight in 2026. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt - [2026-07-15] Mississippi foodsize acres for Jul–Dec 2026 were 20,300, against 21,400 (-5%). Mississippi medium-fish pounds on Jul 1 were 30.5M, against 29.5M (+3%). Large fish were 4.25M lb, against 4.75M lb (-11%). Mississippi small-fish pounds are in the omitted portion of the page, so I could not read them. The Mississippi medium and large pounds on Jul 1 total 34.75M, against 34.25M a year earlier, so the mid-year stock is about flat. This is the best YES-side datum, but it follows a first half in which opening stocks were about 29% lower. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795980/cfpd0726.pdf - [2026-07-15] The three-state stocker count on Jul 1, 2026 was 153M, down 16%. Small stockers fell 32%, to 66.8M. That points to fewer fish reaching foodsize in late 2026 and into 2027. Large stockers were up 2%. The 2026 calendar-year sales window is mostly set by fish already at or near foodsize on Jan 1. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795980/cfpd0726.pdf - [2025-07] Mississippi's Jul 1, 2025 total foodsize inventory was 78.95M lb, against 98.2M lb in Jul 2024. The 2025 mid-year stock was low, yet 2025 sales still came in at a record 194.3M lb. 2025 sales therefore ran well above what the mid-year inventory implied. That suggests a one-off drawdown of backlogged fish (the 2024 Extension piece describes marketing delays and fish held in ponds). The 2025 stock-draw is likely hard to repeat. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/bg257f046/7d27br96b/g445fc41m/cfpd0725.pdf - [2026-08-03] MSU Extension (Kumar) says market-ready fish stay longer in ponds when processors need fewer fish. It also says 2026 federal aid (a $20M Section 32 purchase and ELAP bird-loss payments) was approved in July. Both support sales being held back in 2026. Bird depredation and costs above fish prices since 2023 add to the pressure. https://extension.msstate.edu/news/crop-report/2026/programs-lend-hand-catfish-producers - [2026-09-16] August 2026 Mississippi processing was 7.33M lb, reported by only four plants (Guidry's, Superior, Simmons, Freshwater Farms). Dividing the 194.3M lb annual total by 12 gives about 16M lb a month. These reporting plants appear to cover only part of the industry, so the ratio proves nothing. I found no like-for-like year-ago figure, so this is not evidence either way. https://agnet.mdac.ms.gov/msFarmersMarkets/catfishReporting - [2026-02-10] The NASS survey is a census of known producers in the six published states. The estimates also use historic trends and can be revised. The 2025 print showed 2024 foodsize sales falling 26% in value, and later data revised that. Year-to-year moves in this series are therefore large, so a rise of 0.1M lb or more against a 29% lower opening stock would need a rare reversal. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt - [2026-10-18] Status quo and timing: the first print of the 2026 total is due in Feb 2027, with the previous releases on Feb 9–10. A short delay would still leave the print before the Feb 28 close, so the main timing risk is a missed or delayed release. If NASS discontinues or withholds the Mississippi state line, the market may not resolve YES. NASS already discontinued Mississippi stocker estimates in 2025. No cancellation notice has been found. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795763/cfpd0226.txt BOTTOM LINE: The 194.3M lb threshold is the record 2025 figure, and Mississippi opened 2026 with about 29% less foodsize live weight than it opened 2025 with. Acreage is also down about 5%, stockers are thinner, and the first-print revision pattern favours a lower initial number. YES needs a large, unusual draw-down of fish held back in 2025, with yields and weights up. That is the main risk to this case. NOT FOUND: Mississippi small-foodsize and total foodsize pounds for Jul 1, 2026 (the table was truncated). Year-ago processing volumes for comparison. Any 2026 year-to-date Mississippi live-weight sales. The confirmed 2027 NASS release date. Any analyst forecast of the 2026 Mississippi figure.