Will the statewide average value of Iowa farmland for 2026 be above $11,750/acre?

- [2026-10-17] No 2026 ISU Land Value Survey result is out yet. The survey reflects values as of about Nov 1. The 2025 results came out on Dec 9, 2025, so the 2026 release is probably in early-to-mid December, before the Jan 1, 2027 close. https://www.extension.iastate.edu/news/iowa-farmland-values-inch-market-readjustment - [2025-12-09] The baseline is the 2025 ISU survey: the statewide average rose 0.7% (+$83) to $11,549/acre. $11,750 is $201 above that, which needs a rise of about 1.7%. https://farmland.card.iastate.edu/overview - [2025-12-09] The 2023 peak was $11,835, and 2024 was $11,467 (-3.1%). The 2026 value would need to be within about 0.7% of the 2023 peak to clear $11,750. https://www.nwestiowa.com/sentinel/iowa-farmland-values-inch-up-in-market-readjustment/article_dc8b2a06-a9c5-48ca-99a3-2dc6c49481a9.html - [2025-12-09] ISU's Chandio treats changes under 5% in either direction as an "adjustment" rather than a true market change. The 2025 survey had 316 respondents, and the Dec 2025 press coverage noted that nominal levels are less reliable than the direction of change. https://www.profarmer.com/news/agriculture-news/iowa-state-survey-reveals-stable-farmland-values - [2026-09-25] The REALTORS Land Institute (RLI) Iowa survey, as of Sept 1, 2026, showed +0.6% for Mar–Sep 2026 and about +1.9% for Sep 2025–Sep 2026. East Central was +2.5% and North Central -1.3%. High-quality land is selling well, while medium and lower quality is weaker. This is the most recent statewide indicator, and a secondary source (a broker blog) reports it. https://www.wmgauction.com/september-2026-rli-land-survey-iowa - [2026-03-11] The RLI spring survey showed +1.3% for Sep 2025–Mar 2026. It was the first positive statewide reading in nearly three years. All nine districts rose. https://www.rliland.com/Portals/IA/2026%20Spring%20LTV%20Press%20Release%20(1).pdf - [2026-08 (Q2 2026 AgLetter)] Chicago Fed: 7th District "good" farmland values were flat year over year in Q2 2026 and unchanged from Q1. Iowa had a year-over-year increase (the size is not given in the text I read). Real values fell 3.7%. 5% of lenders expect values to rise next quarter, 81% expect stability and 14% expect declines (the lender-expectation split comes from a secondary summary). Q3 data is due in November. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/2025-2029/august-2026 - [2026-07 (published)] Farm Credit Services of America benchmark farms in Iowa showed 0.0% for six months and -1.4% for one year as of mid-2026. Iowa was the only state in its footprint to decline. https://www.fcsamerica.com/resources/learning-center/latest-land-values - [2026-10-06] September 2026 Iowa sales (a broker report of 111 entries) ranged from under $10,000 to $25,500/acre. This is anecdotal and gives no statewide average. https://www.wmgauction.com/iowa-farmland-sales-in-september-2026-what-the-latest-sales-tell-us-about-the-market - [2026-08] USDA's 2026 figure for Iowa farm real estate was $10,100/acre, reported as +3.2%. This is a secondary source, and USDA's series is not the same measure as the ISU survey. https://placeacre.com/news/illinois-farmland-values-sixth-consecutive-year-2026 - [2026-03] A newsletter said the RLI spring survey predated the Iran conflict, which has disrupted fertilizer supply chains. It added that Chicago Fed lenders cite commodity price volatility and high costs as pressures. https://jmanske.substack.com/p/iowa-realtors-land-values-survey BOTTOM LINE: The main indicators (RLI at about +1.9% year over year as of Sept 2026, Chicago Fed flat to slightly up, FCSAmerica Iowa at -1.4%) put the ISU result near the threshold. The cutoff of $11,750 needs about +1.7% from $11,549. ISU has tended to track RLI's direction loosely, but with noisy levels. The result will not be known until the December release. NOT FOUND: The ISU 2026 survey result or its release date. The Iowa-specific Q2 2026 Chicago Fed percentage. The RLI statewide dollar average for Sept 2026. Any news from the past 7 days that bears directly on the survey.

- [2025-12-09] The 2025 ISU survey put the statewide average at $11,549/acre as of Nov 1, 2025. That is +0.7% (+$83) from 2024 and $286 below the 2023 peak of $11,835. The 2024 survey showed a 3.1% decline. The $11,750 strike needs about +$201, or +1.7%, over 2025. It sits below the 2023 peak. https://farmland.card.iastate.edu/files/inline-files/Iowa%20Land%20Value%20Survey%20News%20Release%202025.pdf - [2025-12-09] The ISU survey lead said changes under 5% up or down are "more of an adjustment than a true market change." Reference class: since 2023 the annual change has been +3.7% (2023, from memory), -3.1% (2024) and +0.7% (2025). A move of at least +1.7% is within the normal range. https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/155678 - [2025-12 release timing] The survey is conducted each November, with results released in mid-December. That is before the 2027-01-01 close. https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/iowa-state-university-releases-its-2025-land-value-survey-results-up-0-7 - [2026-09-11 to 09-25] The REALTORS Land Institute (RLI) Iowa survey for September 2026 showed +0.6% from March to September 2026. Combined with +1.3% for Sept 2025–Mar 2026, that is about +1.9% over 12 months. The North Central district fell 1.3% and East Central rose 2.5%. This is a different survey and a different method (opinion-based, as of Sept 1). The RLI Sept 2025 to Sept 2026 gain of about 1.9% is just above the 1.7% needed. https://www.wmgauction.com/september-2026-rli-land-survey-iowa - [2026-03-11] The RLI March 2026 survey showed +1.3% in six months, with all nine districts up. It was the first positive statewide reading in nearly three years. https://www.rliland.com/Portals/IA/2026%20Spring%20LTV%20Press%20Release%20(1).pdf - [2026-03-11] In the same RLI survey, coordinators said the prior 12 months netted +0.1% (Sept 2024–Mar 2025 combined with the following periods). RLI and ISU can diverge: RLI showed a flat year over the 2025 window while ISU showed +0.7%. https://www.profarmer.com/news/agriculture-news/iowa-land-pros-see-steady-farmland-values-september-march - [2026-05-14] The Chicago Fed AgLetter for Q1 2026 had Iowa "good" farmland up 2% year over year (Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026) and unchanged from Jan 1 to Apr 1. Q4 2025 had Iowa up 5% year over year (the Chicago Fed's Q3 2025 reading was about -1%). https://www.shawlocal.com/news/2026/05/30/chicago-fed-survey-midwest-farmland-values-dip-slightly/ - [2026-08] The Chicago Fed AgLetter for Q2 2026 said district farmland values were flat year over year and flat from Q1. Iowa and Illinois were up year over year; Indiana and Wisconsin were down. Real values fell 3.7%. Lenders cited data centers and solar/wind projects as supports. Credit conditions were weaker. The Iowa-specific percentage was not in the text I could read. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/2025-2029/august-2026 - [2026-07] The Farm Credit Services of America (FCSAmerica) benchmark report for H1 2026 showed Iowa at 0.0% over six months and -1.4% over one year. Iowa was the only state in its footprint with a decline. This is a bearish counterpoint, though it reflects appraisals of 21 farms. https://www.fcsamerica.com/resources/learning-center/latest-land-values - [2026-07] The Iowa Farm Bureau outlook said nominal and real Iowa land values have eased slightly since 2023. In the 2025 ISU survey, 40% of respondents expected a decline over the next year and 82% expected a rise over five years. https://www.iowafarmbureau.com/ArticleFile/file/2f6e0cdb-528b-484b-b5c9-543279eab2f9/2026IowaAgOutlook.pdf - [2026-07-20] A joint ag-economy study (including the Iowa Farm Bureau) said financially vulnerable farms rose from 7.7% in Dec 2022 to 19% in Dec 2025. Lower commodity prices and high costs are tightening liquidity. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/07/20/new-joint-study-shows-pressure-increasing-across-ag-economy/ - [2026-03] The RLI survey was taken before the Iran conflict began, which disrupted fertilizer supply chains (Corn Belt newsletter). Later data (the Sept RLI survey) came after that shock and still showed a gain. https://jmanske.substack.com/p/iowa-realtors-land-values-survey BOTTOM LINE: The strike needs ISU to report about +1.7% or more, a plausible but not central outcome after a +0.7% year in a flat-to-slightly-firm market. The RLI (+1.9% over 12 months) and Chicago Fed (Iowa up year over year) readings sit around or slightly above the needed gain, while FCSAmerica (-1.4% over one year) and weak farm finances lean the other way. The outside view is that the result is near the threshold. NOT FOUND: Any published forecast of the 2026 ISU number. The Iowa-specific Q2 2026 Chicago Fed percentage. USDA 2026 Iowa farm real estate (a result mentioned an unverified $10,100 figure). A full ISU historical series fetched from a primary page. Any 2026 ISU result, which is not due until mid-December.

YES means: the 2026 Iowa State University Land Value Survey (values as of about Nov 1, 2026) reports a statewide all-quality average above $11,750/acre. That is about +1.7% over the 2025 figure of $11,549. - [2026-09-03] The Chicago Fed Q2 2026 AgLetter put Iowa "good" farmland up 4% year over year. This is the Iowa figure the earlier reports lacked. It is above the 2% Iowa reading for Q1 2026 (reported May 2026). Illinois was +1%, Indiana -3% and Wisconsin -2%. Iowa was therefore the strongest Corn Belt state in the Q2 data. Lenders said data-center, solar and wind investment helped hold land values up. A 4% year-over-year gain is well above the +1.7% needed. https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2026/09/03/year-over-year-farmland-values-flat/ - [2026-02-26] The Chicago Fed's Q4 2025 report had Iowa at +7% year over year, in one outlet's account. Another outlet cited +5% for the same quarter, so the sources conflict. Either way, the lender series has run positive for Iowa since the ISU 2025 survey date. https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2026/02/26/chicago-fed-survey-midwest-farmland-values-rebound/ - [2026-03] The RLI March 2026 survey gave statewide dollar averages of $13,878 (high quality), $10,805 (medium) and $7,694 (low). The medium and low figures sit above ISU's 2025 averages of $10,809 (medium, essentially level) and $7,580 (low). Low-quality land is the weakest category in the broker data. High-quality land is where gains are concentrated. ISU's high-quality figure was $14,030 in 2025. https://www.wmgauction.com/latest-rli-iowa-land-values-survey-march-2026-results - [2026-10-12 and 2026-10-15] Recent auctions show strong tops. O'Brien County sold at $14,400/acre in the Oct 3–9 week, and a Dallas County 351-acre farm averaged $11,033/acre (DTN, Oct 15). Sioux County sold at $25,500/acre on Sept 30 (89.4 CSR2), and Benton County at $15,000–$15,750/acre. These are anecdotes, but ISU respondents are drawn from this same auction and broker market in the weeks before the November survey. https://www.wmgauction.com/iowa-farmland-sales-september-26-october-1-2026 - [2026-08] August 2026 auctions covered 10,821 acres (9,484 tillable) and ranged up to $21,500/acre, with several farms above $16,000. This shows deep demand for high-quality land. https://www.wmgauction.com/iowa-farmland-auction-results-for-august-2026 - [2026-10-15] CBOT closing settlements on Oct 15 were Dec corn $4.78 and Nov soybeans $12.63. Deferred soybean contracts ran up to about $13.01. Cash bids in northwest Iowa were roughly $4.33–$4.43. This is a modest improvement in revenue expectations, set against a Q2 Chicago Fed note that commodity volatility and costs are pressuring credit. Soybeans near $12.60–$13 are above 2025 lows. https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2850.pdf - [2026-08] The Chicago Fed Q2 2026 discussion said Iowa could see a record corn yield per USDA's August estimate, with a strong soybean crop too. Large yields were among ISU respondents' positive factors in 2025. Combined with limited land supply (the top positive factor in 2025 at 21%), this gives a mechanism for a second small positive year. https://www.chicagofed.org/-/media/publications/chicago-fed-insights/2026/august-agletter-insights.pdf?sc_lang=en - [2025-12-09] In 2025, ISU reported a +0.7% statewide gain while the Chicago Fed's Iowa readings were running higher. This is the strongest evidence for a YES path: ISU has tended to print less than the lender series. The Chicago Fed's Iowa +4% (Q2 2026) and RLI's +1.9% (Sept 2025 to Sept 2026) both suggest the ISU Nov-to-Nov change could land between +1.7% and +4%. ISU's lead says nominal levels are "quite subjective" and that direction is the survey's strength. https://www.profarmer.com/news/agriculture-news/iowa-state-survey-reveals-stable-farmland-values - [2025-08] ISU's own Chandio, in the August 2025 AgDM piece, projected land values to be about 1.0% lower by Nov 2026 (and 1.5% lower by Nov 2025). Nov 2025 then came in +0.7% rather than -1.5%. That is a 2.2-point miss on the upside, so that forecast was too bearish. The same article expects an 11% rise by 2030. This counters the bearish-outlook argument. https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/articles/chandio/ChaAug25.html PATH TO YES (most likely): Iowa lender and realtor surveys, which are near +2% to +4% year over year, translate into an ISU gain of at least +1.7%. High-quality land in the Northwest, Northeast and East Central districts keeps rising, and medium- and low-quality land is flat to slightly up. Prerequisites: (1) no sharp commodity or credit shock before Nov 1; (2) a strong record harvest that does not collapse prices; (3) ISU respondents (about 300) report moves similar to RLI and the Chicago Fed rather than FCSAmerica's -1.4%. BOTTOM LINE: The Chicago Fed's Iowa +4% (Q2 2026) and RLI's +1.9% over 12 months are both at or above the ~1.7% needed, and auctions at the top end remain firm. Against that, the Chicago Fed's Q2 quarterly change was flat, and FCSAmerica shows -1.4%, so YES needs ISU to print above the lower indicators. NOT FOUND: Any published forecast of the 2026 ISU figure. The 2026 ISU release date. Iowa's Q3 2026 Chicago Fed reading (due November). The RLI Sept 2026 statewide dollar averages.

YES means: the 2026 ISU Land Value Survey (Nov 1 values, due about December) reports a statewide all-quality average above $11,750/acre, i.e. a gain of about 1.7% or more over 2025's $11,549. Argument for NO only. Where evidence cuts against NO, I say so. - [2026-07-27] The ISU/CARD 2026 Iowa Ag Outlook, a primary source from the same institution, says nominal and real Iowa land values have "decreased slightly since 2023". It calls Iowa's farm economy "several years into a downturn". It also forecasts net farm income falling in both 2026 and 2027. The 2025 income gain came mainly from government payments and livestock, not crops. A falling income path is a headwind for a +1.7% land print. https://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/26-sr-125 - [2026-07-27] In the same report, 40% of 2025 ISU respondents expected a decline over the next year. Respondents' expectations feed the next survey's estimates. The report also flags rising Chapter 12 filings and deteriorating liquidity. 19% of mid- and large-size farms were financially vulnerable in Dec 2025, against 7.7% in 2022. https://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/26-sr-125 - [2026-09-03] Chicago Fed Q2 2026 (via AgriNews): Iowa's year-over-year value was +4%, which is bullish and fills the gap colleagues left. The district itself was flat year over year, its slowest growth since Q4 2024. "Good" land was unchanged from Q1. Only 5% of lenders expected a Q3 rise, 81% expected stability and 14% expected a fall. 43% judged land overvalued and none judged it undervalued. https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2026/09/03/year-over-year-farmland-values-flat/ - [2026-09-03] The same Chicago Fed report shows weakening credit conditions. Major or severe repayment problems were 3.7%, the highest since 2020. Collateral requirements were higher and the loan-to-deposit ratio was a record. Real district values fell 3.7%, the biggest drop since 2016. Lenders credit data centers and solar/wind for holding values up, a narrow support that is likely concentrated outside typical Iowa row-crop land. https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/business/2026/09/03/year-over-year-farmland-values-flat/ - [2026-08 (published about July)] FCSAmerica benchmarks via AgDaily: Iowa cropland benchmarks fell 0.7% over six months and 2.6% over twelve. The all-farm figure (0.0% and -1.4%) was held up by mixed-use tracts, while pure cropland was weaker. Iowa also trails the footprint average (+1.9% over six months, +3.5% over twelve). Iowa's two-year change is -4.3%. This is the most direct "pure cropland is still declining" evidence. https://www.agdaily.com/news/corn-belt-farmland-values-2026/ - [2026-10-15] Fall auction prints are mixed, not a broad rally. A Dallas County sale was $11,033/acre. Another in the same county was $12,033 (DTN Oct 1 column). Dallas County is a Central district county. In the week of Oct 3–9, 3 of 26 tracts in Dallas County were no-sales, and the low was $4,300. High prices are concentrated in northwest Iowa and CSR2 90+ land. Statewide all-quality averages weight lower-quality land, which RLI says was weaker. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/business-inputs/article/2026/10/15/recent-farmland-sales-iowa-missouri ; https://www.wmgauction.com/iowa-farmland-auction-results-october-3-9-2026 - [2026-10-06 and 2026-03-xx] Grain prices give no earnings catalyst. Iowa cash corn is about $4.1–4.4 and soybeans about $11–12. ISU's 2026 production-cost estimates are $4.33/bu for corn and $10.96 for soybeans. Net income for corn and soybean farmers was described as the lowest in 15 years. USDA's October forecast has Iowa corn at 219 bu/ac, a big crop that pressures prices further. https://www.iowafarmbureau.com/Article/Are-farmers-struggling-in-2026-Understanding-todays-farm-economy ; https://agsist.com/usda-quick-stats - [2026-xx, ISU method] The ISU survey is an opinion survey, and its own overview describes the estimates as respondents' judgments. Chandio treats changes under 5% as "adjustment" rather than market change. The 2025 +0.7% was driven by NE (+4.1%) and East Central (+3.4%), while North Central (-2.6%) and Central (-2.0%) fell. A repeat shape in 2026 averages near zero. RLI September already showed North Central at -1.3%, and North Central and Central are large districts. https://www.card.iastate.edu/files/publications/pdf/25WP674.pdf - [2025-12-09] Inertia and level arithmetic. ISU's statewide series has not exceeded $11,750 in any year. The 2023 peak was $11,835, a record reached during a boom in commodity prices, and the market has since fallen. A "stable" market (the status-quo description from RLI, the Chicago Fed's flat district, and FCSAmerica's 0.0% six-month change) puts the print at roughly $11,450–$11,650, below the strike. YES needs ISU's reading to beat even the optimistic secondary indicators. RLI's +1.9% over 12 months only just clears 1.7%, and RLI and ISU have diverged before. https://www.extension.iastate.edu/news/iowa-farmland-values-inch-market-readjustment - [2026-10-12] Resolution mechanics add little extra NO risk. Release is expected in early-to-mid December, before the Jan 1 close. The market resolves on the published statewide all-quality number, so rounding and release timing are unlikely to matter. https://www.iowaappraisal.com/blog/iowa-land-auction-prices-october-3-9-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on a stable-to-soft Iowa market that needs a better-than-stable outcome to clear $11,750. ISU's own outlook, FCSAmerica cropland benchmarks, lender expectations of "stable", weak farm finances and uninspiring crop prices all point that way, but the Chicago Fed's Iowa +4% and RLI's about +1.9% are real counterweights. NOT FOUND: Any 2026 ISU result or release date. The RLI statewide dollar average for Sept 2026. The Q3 2026 Chicago Fed Iowa reading (due in November). Any published forecast of the 2026 ISU number. A primary-source ISU historical series that I fetched directly.