Will Utah ski resort skier visits for the 2026–27 ski season be above 6,000,000 skier visits?

- [2026-10-12] Utah resorts got their first measurable snow of the 2026–27 season, with more forecast. Snow levels were forecast to reach mid-mountain at Snowbird and Alta. Deseret News calls the predicted Super El Niño a "wild card": past Super El Niños have brought both above- and below-average snow. Park City Mountain's target opening is Nov. 20. https://www.deseret.com/lifestyle/2026/10/12/utah-ski-resorts-first-snowfall-super-el-nino-snow-forecast-park-city-brighton-alta/ - [2026-10-07] Ski Utah compiled the 2026–27 opening dates and new features. Brian Head targets Nov. 6, the earliest in the state. Resorts are banking on the Super El Niño. Deer Valley has more than doubled in size since Dec 2024, adding 11 chairlifts and 4,500 acres. https://www.deseret.com/lifestyle/2026/10/07/utah-ski-resorts-opening-dates-new-terrain-upgraded-chairlifts/ - [2026-09-20] Tentative opening dates: Alta, Solitude and Park City Nov. 20; Snowbird and Snowbasin Nov. 27; Deer Valley Dec. 5; Powder Mountain Dec. 11. Eagle Point is closed for 2026–27 because of Cottonwood Fire damage. The Tribune says the El Niño moisture isn't expected to hit Utah until about January. https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2026/09/20/utah-ski-resort-2026-27-opening/ - [2026-08-19] A Deseret report on the winter outlook says southern Utah looks good. Northern Utah may load slowly in November and December, with later-season upside. https://www.deseret.com/the-west/2026/08/19/super-el-nino-vail-resorts-opening-dates-ski-areas-park-city-utah-colorado-california/ - [2026-08-21] The Gardner Policy Institute reported 4.8M skier days in Utah for 2025/26, down 26.5% from 6.5M. The season was one of the state's weakest for snow. Alta logged 319 inches against a 10-year average of 547. https://townlift.com/2026/08/skier-days-fell-26-5-in-utahs-worst-snow-year-handing-summit-county-the-states-largest-room-tax-decline/ - [2026-09-11] The Kottke/NSAA end-of-season report puts Utah at 4.7M skier visits for 2025-26, almost level with Vermont at 4.6M. The Rocky Mountain region fell 23.8% to 20.2M. https://snowbrains.com/skier-visits-by-state-2025-26/ - [2026-05-05] NSAA preliminary data put the US at 52.6M visits for 2025-26, down from 61.6M. Ski Utah had no preliminary figure at that time. NSAA's CEO framed the drop as cyclical and said low-snow seasons have historically been followed by strong rebounds. https://townlift.com/2026/05/rocky-mountain-skier-visits-fall-to-lowest-level-since-pandemic-season-as-warm-winter-weighs-on-western-resorts/ - [2025-06-11] Ski Utah, the resolution source, reported 6,503,635 visits for 2024–25. That was down 3.6% and the third-highest on record. The 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons were higher. Ski Utah announced this in mid-June, so the 2026–27 figure would likely come around June 2027, before the July 31, 2027 close. https://www.parkrecord.com/2025/06/11/utah-ski-resorts-report-6-5-million-skier-visits-for-2024-25-season/ - [2026-03-19] Vail Resorts (Park City) called 2025-26 its most challenging Rockies winter in over 30 years. Its season-to-date North American visits were down 11.9%. This is a baseline for how weak the comparison year was. https://www.deseret.com/lifestyle/2026/03/19/utah-record-low-snowfall-ski-resorts-closing-warm-temperatures/ - [2026-10-03] SkiMag expected lower pass sales next season, because poor conditions make skiers gun-shy for the following winter (2026-05 NSAA analysis). Ikon and Epic prices were still rising into early October: Ikon is listed at $1,449 and Epic at $1,145 (Oct 4). Alta-Bird is up $130. No Utah pass-sales totals were found. https://www.skimag.com/news/2025-26-nsaa-season-analysis - [2026-10-17] The Ski Utah 2026–27 total does not exist yet. The season starts in November and the earliest reporting would be spring 2027. Ski Utah has not published a 2025-26 statewide total in the sources I found; the 4.7–4.8M figures come from Gardner and Kottke. https://www.skiutah.com/blog/authors/yeti/utah-ski-resort-opening-dates/ BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 17, 2026 nothing has resolved. The base to beat is 6.0M, against 4.7–4.8M last season (a 25%+ rebound is needed) and 6.50M in 2024–25. Outcome depends on snowfall. Early signals are a Super El Niño forecast and the first snow, but its effect on Utah is uncertain. Pass-sales hangover, Eagle Point's closure and a late-fall start are headwinds; Deer Valley's expansion is a tailwind. NOT FOUND: Ski Utah's own 2025-26 statewide total; Utah-specific pass-sales or advance-booking data for 2026–27; any Ski Utah forecast or target for 2026–27 visits.

- [2026-06-10] Ski Utah's data put 2025-26 at about 4.8M skier visits across 15 resorts. That is 26% below the prior season and the lowest since the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season. Ski Utah called it an "anomaly" caused by record-low snowpack and record warmth. NSAA's CEO said low-snow seasons are often followed by a "strong rebound". https://www.ksl.com/article/51508582/an-anomaly-how-utahs-record-low-snowpack-hurt-the-states-ski-resorts - [2025-06-11] Ski Utah reported 6,503,635 visits for 2024-25. That was down 3.6% from the prior season, the third-highest on record, and 3.3% above the five-year average. https://www.utahbusiness.com/press-releases/2025/06/13/utah-ski-resorts-skier-visits-2024-2025-season/ - [2024-07-10] Ski Utah reported 6,746,008 visits for 2023-24, the second-best season in state history. https://www.skiutah.com/news/utah-ski-resorts-report-6-75-million-skier-visits/ - [2024-04] The record is about 7.1M, set in 2022-23, when Alta recorded 903 inches of snow. https://www.ksl.com/article/50983618/utahs-record-2023-ski-season-generated-over-19b-in-visitor-spending-new-analysis-finds - Reference class: the three best Utah seasons on record (7.1M, 6.75M, 6.50M) are 2022-23 through 2024-25, and all exceeded 6M. 2024-25 had a slow start and a Park City ski patrol strike, yet still cleared 6.5M. 2025-26 at 4.8M fell well short of 6M. The sources I read do not give earlier annual Ski Utah totals, so I could not confirm how often pre-2022 seasons exceeded 6M. The 3.3%-above-five-year-average figure implies a 2020-25 mean of roughly 6.3M, including the weak 2020-21 and 2025-26-type years. - [2026-08-21] The Gardner Institute reported 4.8M skier days for 2025-26, down 26.5%. Out-of-state and international visitation also fell, and the international share was a record-low 2%. https://unofficialnetworks.com/2026/08/21/utah-skier-visits-drop-26-5-after-2025-2026-historically-low-snow-winter/ - [2026-09-?] The Kottke report put Utah at 4.7M for 2025-26. It also showed the Rocky Mountain region down 23.8% year over year, the largest regional drop. https://snowbrains.com/skier-visits-by-state-2025-26/ - [2026-08-13] OpenSnow's 2026-27 outlook favors above-normal Utah snowfall, with January to March favored, because a strong or "super" El Niño is expected. It also notes above-normal temperatures are favored for northern Utah. https://opensnow.com/news/post/2026-2027-winter-forecast-preview - [2026-08-13] The Salt Lake Tribune cautions that El Niños have been "flukey" for Utah: the result could be a snowy winter or just a wet and warm one. https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2026/08/13/how-super-el-nino-could-jolt-utahs/ - [2026-10-16] NOAA's Dec–Feb outlook gives the Intermountain West equal chances of below-, near- or above-normal precipitation. Northern Utah sits near the edge of a drier signal, and southern Utah leans wetter. https://townlift.com/2026/10/noaas-winter-outlook-leaves-utah-snowfall-uncertain-as-el-nino-strengthens/ - [2026-10-17] Ski Utah's snow report lists openings: Park City, Alta and Solitude on Nov 20; Snowbasin and Snowbird on Nov 27; Deer Valley on Dec 5. Eagle Point is closed for 2026-27, and several other resorts have no opening date. Resort count is therefore at most 14 operating. https://www.skiutah.com/news/utah-ski-resorts-report-6-75-million-skier-visits/ - Timing of the Ski Utah statewide total: it was released June 11, 2025 and July 10, 2024. The 2025-26 figure was out by about June 10, 2026, so the 2026-27 figure should land well before the 2027-07-31 close. The 4.8M figure was reported via KSL as "Ski Utah visitation data". https://www.ksl.com/article/51508582/an-anomaly-how-utahs-record-low-snowpack-hurt-the-states-ski-resorts BOTTOM LINE: In the base case, a normal-snow Utah season has recently produced about 6.5M or more, so a >6M total would need roughly a 25% rebound from the 4.8M 2025-26 trough. Snow is the dominant driver, and the El Niño forecasts are mixed for northern Utah, where most visits occur. A weak start in November and December is a risk, and the 2025-26 pass and visitor hangover is unquantified. NOT FOUND: Ski Utah annual totals before 2022-23, so I could not confirm how often pre-2022 seasons exceeded 6M. Also not found: any analyst or expert numeric forecast of 2026-27 Utah skier visits, a historical analysis of rebound after a record-low-snow Utah year, and 2026-27 season pass sales data for Utah.

YES means: Ski Utah's reported statewide total for the 2026–27 season is above 6,000,000 skier visits. - [2022-06-16] Utah has cleared 5.3M, 5.8M, 7.1M, 6.75M and 6.50M in five of the last six seasons, with 4.8M the exception. The 2021-22 season's 5,829,679 visits came in a below-average snow year, and Ski Utah credited season-pass ownership. Passes plus multi-resort access lifted the floor. This is a mechanism for the structural baseline, not a snow-dependent one. https://www.saminfo.com/news/sam-headline-news/utah-smashes-statewide-record-for-skier-visits - [2021] The 2020-21 season hit a then-record 5,301,766 visits in what Ski Utah called an "average at best" snow year, with snow arriving late. A mediocre-snow year therefore produced 5.3–5.8M. 6.0M is only about 3% above the 2021-22 level, and the resort base has grown since then (see the Deer Valley bullet). Source: https://www.skimag.com/news/utah-reports-record-skier-visits/ - [2024-07-10] Snow history shows slow starts don't sink a year. 2023-24 had minimal December and early-January snow, yet reached 6,746,008 visits once powder came. A late-fall opening can still produce a 6M+ season if Jan–Mar delivers. https://unofficialnetworks.com/2024/07/11/utah-2023-24-season-visits/ - [2025-06-12] 2024-25 had a slower-than-normal start and Alta got 538 inches against a 548 average. That near-average snow still gave 6,503,635 visits, so a roughly average winter clears 6.0M by about 8%. YES therefore needs only normal snow, not El Niño heroics. https://www.saminfo.com/faces-and-places/utah-ski-areas-record-third-most-skier-visits-in-states-history - [2026-07-17, fetched Oct 17] Ski Utah's own El Niño analysis says strong El Niño winters usually bring a slow, cranky Wasatch start in Nov–Dec, then a pickup from January through spring. Southern Utah tends to run above average. That is the YES path: a January–April rebound with strong spring weekends. https://www.skiutah.com/blog/authors/yeti/elnino26-27/ - [2026-08-03] Deseret quotes a forecaster saying a very strong event adds "a real argument for optimism" beyond the historical average. Two of the four strongest El Niños on record gave above-average snow (Sept 24 Deseret), and the 1982-83 event was exceptional. NOAA gives >90% odds of a very strong event (Sept 10 CPC discussion, via the Sept 28 Unofficial Networks piece). https://www.deseret.com/lifestyle/2026/08/03/super-el-nino-utah-winter-snow-ski-resorts/ - [2026-09-28] Utah's 2025-26 low is attributed to weather alone: Alta had its least-snowy season in a 46-year record (321 inches, 58.6% of average). Visitor spending fell 17.8%. Ski Utah is running a "Vote Super El Niño" marketing push. The weather-driven nature of the slump supports a rebound, since no structural demand loss is documented. https://unofficialnetworks.com/2026/09/28/ski-utah-vote-super-el-nino-campaign/ - [2026-10-16] Ski Utah's daily forecast (Oct 16) says another closed low will bring high-elevation snow, with "signs of an active late October." Alongside the Oct 12 first snow, this points to an early-season start. https://www.skiutah.com/blog/authors/yeti/elnino26-27/ - [2026-10-16] NOAA's Dec–Feb precipitation outlook gives equal chances, with no dry tilt for the Intermountain West. Major storms are possible even in a warm winter. That removes the dry-lean downside, though it adds no wet signal. https://townlift.com/2026/10/noaas-winter-outlook-leaves-utah-snowfall-uncertain-as-el-nino-strengthens/ - [2026-10-17] Prices are higher but pass products remain plentiful, and Ski Utah lists a Yeti Pass at $899 alongside Ikon and Epic. Ikon, Epic and Mountain Collective sales run into December, so late buyers can still follow a good snow signal. Pass holders drive most visits, and pass buyers can still add days if conditions turn good (a 2021-22 Rafferty point). Sources: https://www.zrankings.com/ski-resorts/season-passes and https://www.skimag.com/news/utah-reports-highest-skier-visits-ever-2021-22-season/ - [2023-05] Local visitation is snow-sensitive, which is why 2022-23 jumped 22% over 2021-22. Locals made up about 44% of Utah skiers (Nov 2024 TownLift). A snow-driven local surge could lift totals quickly. Sources: https://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/threads/recap-of-utahs-unprecedented-winter-of-2023.14788/ and https://townlift.com/2024/11/utahs-2023-24-ski-season-marks-second-best-year-ever-with-6-7-million-visits-showcasing-strong-five-year-growth-trend/ - [2026-06-10] The NSAA CEO is quoted saying low-snow years are often followed by a "strong rebound." Utah's past data support this: it rose 21% in 2020-21 after the truncated 2019-20 season and 22% in 2022-23 after a weak 2021-22. A rebound of 25%+ has precedent. https://www.ksl.com/article/51508582/an-anomaly-how-utahs-record-low-snowpack-hurt-the-states-ski-resorts BOTTOM LINE: The most likely YES path is a normal-or-better January–April in the northern Wasatch after a slow start. Utah has repeatedly reached 6.5M+ in near-average snow years, and a 6M+ season has not required record snow since 2022. YES fails if the El Niño proves dry or warm, as the equal-chances NOAA outlook allows. NOT FOUND: Utah-specific 2026-27 pass-sales or advance-booking data; any Ski Utah numeric forecast for 2026-27; a statistical rebound analysis after past Utah low-snow years.

YES means: Ski Utah reports a statewide 2026–27 total above 6,000,000 skier visits. - [2026-09-29] Vail's Sept 18 data show Epic pass units down 12% and days sold down 10% for 2026–27. That is worse than the 10% drop reported in May and the 3% drops at this point in the prior two years. Vail says the weakness was concentrated in Colorado, Utah and Tahoe and among destination guests. Vail attributes part of it to delayed purchases. Vail's FY27 outlook assumes a meaningful recovery "though not a complete return" to prior levels. Park City Mountain and Deer Valley are Utah's biggest visit generators. https://townlift.com/2026/09/epic-pass-product-sales-fall-12-as-vail-resorts-looks-for-rebound-after-historic-low-snow-winter/ - [2026-09-29] Vail local-market passes in Utah and Colorado showed only "modest improvement", and unlimited products held up better. Pass sales are the mechanism that locks in visits before snow falls. A recovery to 6M+ would therefore have to come from in-season walk-up and day-ticket demand. That means snow has to be good early. https://snowbrains.com/vail-resorts-pass-sales-fall-12-percent-brutal-ski-season/ - [2019-05-24] Ski Utah's CEO said "It's the snow, stupid" about visits. Utah's 2017–18 season was its lowest snow since the 1970s. The following season, 2018–19, jumped 24% on big snow, a rebound of about the size needed now. Rebounds have required a genuinely snowy year, not just an average one. https://www.parkrecord.com/2019/05/24/the-numbers-are-in-utah-broke-5-million-skier-days-for-first-time-ever/ - [2022-06-16] Ski Utah's pre-2022 history makes 6M a high bar. Totals were 5.13M in 2018–19, 5.30M in 2020–21 and 5.83M in 2021–22. No Utah season before 2022–23 exceeded 6M. https://www.saminfo.com/news/sam-headline-news/utah-smashes-statewide-record-for-skier-visits - [2024-07] Ski Utah's 2022–23 figure of 7.1M was a "legendary" 900-inch snow year. The only seasons above 6M are the three most recent pre-2025–26 ones (7.1M, 6.75M, 6.50M). Those came with an extended run of growth and pass-driven demand. Only a roughly 3-year sample supports ">6M". The 2021–22 season, a below-average snow year, reached only 5.8M. https://townlift.com/2024/07/utahs-2023-24-ski-season-hits-6-7-million-visits-second-highest-in-history/ - [2026-08-03] Utah-specific forecasts point to a slow northern start. A Utah forecaster says strong El Niño winters have historically given northern Utah average to below-average snowpack, especially early. That is where Park City, Deer Valley, Cottonwood and Snowbasin sit. The pattern is "slow in November and December." Dec–Jan holiday weeks are the highest-volume period. https://www.deseret.com/lifestyle/2026/08/03/super-el-nino-utah-winter-snow-ski-resorts/ - [2026-09-24] Meteorologists note two of the four strongest El Niños on record gave above-average Western snow and two gave below-average. So the "Super El Niño" is a coin-flip, not a reliable driver of a bounce. https://www.deseret.com/lifestyle/2026/09/24/super-el-nino-utah-snow-ski-resorts-vote-campaign-lawn-signs/ - [2026-09-16] A forecaster's review of the four strongest El Niños found a "mixed bag" for the West. The strongest signal was for the Southwest, not the northern Rockies or Utah. That fits the south-versus-north split. Southern Utah resorts, such as Brian Head, account for few statewide visits. https://www.deseret.com/lifestyle/2026/09/16/super-el-nino-west-ski-resorts-snowpack-forecast-snowfall/ - [2026-08-21] Gardner reported out-of-state visitation fell and spending dropped 17.8% to $2.1B. Destination guests tend to book far in advance, so the weak 2025–26 experience depresses next-season trips. Locals are about 44% of Utah visits and are snow-sensitive. https://townlift.com/2026/09/epic-pass-product-sales-fall-12-as-vail-resorts-looks-for-rebound-after-historic-low-snow-winter/ ; local share per https://townlift.com/2024/11/utahs-2023-24-ski-season-marks-second-best-year-ever-with-6-7-million-visits-showcasing-strong-five-year-growth-trend/ - [2026-05-05] NSAA says the 2025–26 season ranked 32nd of 48 years nationally and that passes are a "maturing market". Visits per pass flatten at a ceiling. So hitting 6M+ needs a snow year of 2023-ish quality, which is the minority outcome. https://unofficialnetworks.com/2026/05/05/us-ski-visits-plunge-by-9-million-what-went-wrong-in-the-west/ - [2026-10-15] Ski Utah's own forecast showed high pressure returning through the weekend, with the next snow chance only "toward the latter half of next week". The Oct 12 dusting was therefore not a sustained storm cycle. Park City, Alta and Solitude are not open until a planned Nov 20. https://www.skiutah.com/blog/authors/yeti/elnino26-27/ - [Resolution technicality] The question needs a Ski Utah-reported statewide figure. In a normal year Ski Utah publishes in June–July (2022: June 16). If Ski Utah does not issue a headline total before the July 31, 2027 close, or gives only a Gardner/NSAA-style figure, there is no qualifying Ski Utah figure. Ski Utah appeared to publish no 2025–26 total itself this cycle. A "strictly above" threshold also rules out an exact 6,000,000. https://www.saminfo.com/news/sam-headline-news/utah-smashes-statewide-record-for-skier-visits BOTTOM LINE: A YES needs a rebound of 25% or more from the ~4.8M trough. That has happened only after genuinely big snow years, and indicators now point against it: pass sales weaker than any recent year, a forecast slow start in northern Utah, and a mixed El Niño record. Utah has exceeded 6M only in its three recent peak seasons, so a below-6M result is the default if snow is merely average. NOT FOUND: Utah-specific 2026–27 pass or lodging-booking data; Ski Utah's own statement on its 2025–26 total or 2026–27 expectations; any numeric forecast of 2026–27 Utah visits; Ikon pass sales for 2026–27.