Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

The Republican nominee is Sen. Pete Ricketts. The Democratic nominee withdrew, so his main opponent is independent Dan Osborn. Under this market's rules an independent win counts as "No". Nothing has been called yet. Polls are close, but most forecasters and prediction markets still favor Ricketts. - [2026-11-03] Election Day is November 3, and the market closes November 4. Ricketts won the May 12 primary with 81.5%. Democratic primary winner Cindy Burbank dropped out in July and backed Osborn, and the Democrats named no replacement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nebraska - [2026-10-15] Three other candidates are on the ballot besides Ricketts and Osborn: America First, Nebraska Working People, and a Legalize Marijuana NOW candidate who withdrew and endorsed Osborn but remains listed. Decision Desk HQ's average has Ricketts ahead 47–45 and gives him about a 4-in-5 chance. https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/nebraska-senate-independent-dan-osborn-pete-ricketts - [2026-10-14] Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely R to Lean R. Cook still rates it Likely R, Inside Elections moved it to Lean R on Oct 2, and RealClearPolitics rates it Leans GOP. https://www.newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170 - [2026-10-12] An NPA Polling (R) poll shows Ricketts 46, Osborn 43 (±4). https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/12/ricketts-leads-osborn-in-nebraska-senate-race/ - [2026-10-06] A YouGov poll of likely voters (Sept 24–Oct 3, n=1,809) shows Osborn 48, Ricketts 47. A UNL political scientist flagged the sample as under-representing Trump 2024 voters (54% vs. about 60% actual). https://www.newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170 - [2026-09-30] Other recent polls: - co/efficient (Sept 28–30): Ricketts 48, Osborn 43. - SurveyUSA (Sept 8–13): Osborn 46, Ricketts 42. - Also in the Poliwave table: National Public Affairs (Oct 2–5), Ricketts 49–46; Wedgewood (Sept 14–16), Ricketts 52–48; GBAO (D) (Sept 3–8), Osborn 47–46. - https://www.newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170 - [2026-10-05] Trump rallied with Ricketts in Grand Island. https://www.newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170 - [2026-10-16] Q3 fundraising (Roll Call, via Spokesman-Review): Osborn raised nearly $4.1M and ended the quarter with $2.2M cash. Ricketts raised $2.2M, including $1M of his own money, and ended with $1.1M cash. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/oct/16/senate-democratic-candidates-in-red-states-dominat/ - [2026-10-17] Outside spending (Ricketts campaign figures, via Newsweek): - Six outside groups had reported $12.8M supporting Osborn through Oct 13, and the campaign puts the total near $14.9M with scheduled ads. - The Senate Leadership Fund is raising its Nebraska total to $15M, including $7M already spent through Cornhusker Majority (per WSJ). - FEC data through Oct 1 show $7.9M pro-Ricketts or anti-Osborn versus $7.3M pro-Osborn or anti-Ricketts. - https://www.newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170 - [2026-10-17] Newsweek cites Kalshi at Ricketts 75 / Osborn 24 and Polymarket at 73–28. Decision Desk HQ (Oct 15) has Trump approval at about 39% and Democrats ahead on the national generic ballot by about 8 points. https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/nebraska-senate-independent-dan-osborn-pete-ricketts - [2026-10-15] The Nation's monthly populist tracker had Ricketts ahead by 8.5 points in September, down from 10 in August. It says Ricketts's "Democrat Dan" attacks and leaked Osborn recordings (on immigration and mocking a Trump supporter) hurt him with Republicans. https://thenation.com/article/politics/economic-populist-tracker-october - [2026-09-01] The only debate so far was at the Nebraska State Fair. Ricketts repeatedly called Osborn "Democrat Dan", and Osborn repeated that he won't caucus with either party. I found no further scheduled debates. https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2026/09/01/ricketts-osborn-talk-tariffs-iran-war-during-nebraska-state-fair-debate/ BOTTOM LINE: Ricketts is a modest favorite, with ratings at Lean/Likely R, a polling average of roughly R+1 to R+2, and models and markets around 73–81%. But the polls have shifted toward Osborn, Osborn leads on cash, and the national environment favors Democrats. Late polls and the resolution sources (AP, Fox, NBC) are the remaining signals before November 3. NOT FOUND: Any AP, Fox or NBC race call, since the election hasn't happened. Any scheduled second debate. Any independent nonpartisan poll dated after Oct 12. The Hill's Trump-rally article would not load, so its Decision Desk HQ figure (81%, down from 87% in August) comes from the search snippet only.

- [2026-10-17] Newsweek reports Trump won Nebraska by 20.4 points in 2024. It says Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely R to Leans R on 10-14. Cook is at Likely R (downgraded from Solid R in April), and RCP is at Leans GOP. Newsweek puts Kalshi at 75% Ricketts / 24% Osborn and Polymarket at 73-28 for Ricketts. These are market snapshots, not the contract's own price. https://www.newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170 - [2026-10-15] Decision Desk HQ gives Ricketts about a 4-in-5 chance in its forecast. Its poll average is Ricketts 47, Osborn 45. The same memo has the generic ballot at D+8 and Trump approval near 39%. It says Democrats would have better than a 90% chance of winning the Senate if Osborn won. SLF raised its Nebraska spending from $7M to $15M. https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/nebraska-senate-independent-dan-osborn-pete-ricketts - [2026-10-15] Kalshi stood at 75% Ricketts as of 5:43pm ET. Cook was Likely R as of 10-06. This is another venue and is not this contract. https://news.kalshi.com/p/who-will-control-the-senate-2026 - [2026-10-13] Decision Desk HQ's forecast, as cited by The Hill, was 81% Ricketts, down from 87% in August. Polling was sparse. Wedgewood had Ricketts +4 (52-48) and SurveyUSA had Osborn +4 (46-42). https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6127091-trump-nebraska-senate-rally-ricketts-osborn/ - [2026-10-12] A GOP-aligned NPA Polling poll had Ricketts 46, Osborn 43 (±4). https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/12/ricketts-leads-osborn-in-nebraska-senate-race/ - [2026-10-06] A YouGov poll of likely voters (9/24–10/3, n=1,809) had Osborn 48, Ricketts 47. A UNL professor questioned the sample because Trump 2024 voters were underrepresented (54% vs about 60% actual). https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/06/osborn-edges-ricketts-in-nebraska-senate-race/ - [2026-10-05] The Poliwave aggregator averaged 12 polls at Ricketts 47.6, Osborn 46.2, and rated the race a toss-up with a 0.6-point Ricketts forecast margin. Recent polls: National Public Affairs R+3 (46-43 per Pollsmax, 49-46 per Poliwave), co/efficient (R) R+5, Wedgewood R+4, YouGov O+1, SurveyUSA O+4. https://www.poliwave.com/us/ne/sen-fed - [2024-11-05] Base rate: Fischer (R) beat Osborn 53.3% to 46.7%, about 6.6 points, while Trump won the state by 20 points. That was the narrowest Nebraska GOP Senate margin since 2000. Some pre-election polls had shown Osborn ahead. Osborn was then in a pure head-to-head race with no Democrat on the ballot. https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/11/05/red-scare-incumbent-fischer-survives-osborn-in-nebraska-u-s-senate-race/ - [2026-10-15] Ballot structure: the Democratic nominee Burbank withdrew in July and the party named no replacement. Three minor candidates remain on the ballot: America First, Nebraska Working People, and Legal Marijuana NOW (withdrew, endorsed Osborn). So Osborn is not in a pure head-to-head race. https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/nebraska-senate-independent-dan-osborn-pete-ricketts - [2026-10-17] Registration is about 605k R, 316k D and 270k unaffiliated. Republicans routinely approach 60% in Nebraska statewide races. Osborn won 9% of Trump 2024 voters in the YouGov crosstabs. A GOP strategist argues Republicans already defined Osborn early, which makes a repeat late surge less likely. https://www.newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170 - [2026-10-16] Politico reported, and Breitbart relayed, that a recording surfaced of Osborn insulting Fischer; Osborn apologized. Impact on polling is unknown. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/16/democrat-backed-senate-candidate-dan-osborn-caught-calling-deb-fischer-bitch/ - [2026-05-12] Ricketts won the GOP primary with 81.5%. The Republican nominee is Ricketts; Osborn is an independent, so an Osborn win resolves this market "No". Wikipedia confirms the general election is on 2026-11-03. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nebraska BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favors a Republican win. Nebraska has not elected a Democratic-aligned Senate candidate since 2006, and Osborn lost by about 7 points in 2024 despite favorable polls. Current forecasters and markets put Ricketts at roughly 75–81%, but public polls are close (average about R+1 to R+2), the national environment is D+8, and Sabato just moved the race toward Osborn. NOT FOUND: Official Cook/Inside Elections/Sabato pages, which I read only through secondary reports. The Silver Bulletin and 538-style models. Any public poll after 10-12. A track record of Nebraska polls beyond the 2024 race. Official certification timing: AP, Fox and NBC calls in Nebraska are typically made on election night unless the race is very close.

YES means: Republican nominee Pete Ricketts wins the Nov 3, 2026 Nebraska Senate election. An independent Osborn win, or any non-Republican win, resolves No. - [2026-10-14] The "Democrat Dan" frame was set in 2025, when Ricketts called Osborn "a fake" and pointed to ActBlue and out-of-state donors. The Nebraska Democratic Party endorsed Osborn in August 2025. Osborn's own "caucus with everybody" line, per IVN, is still unproven. That gives Republicans a way to hold their base, and Osborn needs Republican crossover to win. https://ivn.us/ricketts-calls-him-a-democrat-osborn-says-thats-the-problem-with-politics/ - [2026-10-14] Ricketts's side says Osborn's 2024 internal polls overstated his standing by 12 points. The only Osborn-side poll with a 2026 tie (Impact Research, 47–47) is an internal. It showed Republicans up 11 on the generic ballot in Nebraska, so Osborn must overperform a generic Democrat by a large margin. https://ivn.us/ricketts-calls-him-a-democrat-osborn-says-thats-the-problem-with-politics/ - [2026-10-17] Pollsmax's average of 12 polls has Ricketts ahead 47.4–45.6, or R+1.7. Its latest poll (National Public Affairs, Oct 5) has Ricketts ahead 46–43. The only Osborn leads are YouGov (+1, disputed sample) and SurveyUSA (+4, n=503, ±6.4). Ricketts has led most of the non-internal polls since September. https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/nebraska/ - [2026-10-17] An MS NOW polling average, cited by Mediaite, has Ricketts ahead 46.9–45.8. This is a second aggregator showing Ricketts leading, not a toss-up. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democratic-backed-senate-candidate-trashes-013303423.html - [2026-10-17] A third Osborn recording story broke this week: Politico's Playbook published audio of him calling Sen. Fischer a vulgar name. Osborn apologized. Fischer said "Pete will win this." This follows the Sept 16 recording on Trump voters, which Osborn confirmed on CNN with "It sure sounds like me." Both feed the Republican line that he looks down on rural Nebraskans. Polling impact is unmeasured. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/democratic-backed-senate-candidate-trashes-former-gop-rival-as-that-btch-1663696/ - [2026-09-16] CNN confirmed Osborn's Trump-voter recording was authentic. In it he says some Trump voters just want to be on the "winning team." The two polls with fieldwork after it, co/efficient (R) and National Public Affairs (R), both show Ricketts ahead. YouGov, which also post-dates it, shows Osborn +1. https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/16/politics/nebraska-senate-dan-osborn-trump-voters-audio - [2026-10-10] Kalshi priced Ricketts at 73¢ with $2.35M contracts traded and 894k open interest on the Ricketts side. This is another venue, not this contract. Market participants with money at stake still favor the Republican, and the same page lists Cook and Sabato at Likely R. The Sabato change to Lean R came afterward. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/nebraska-senate - [2026-10-14] Registration, as of Oct 15 data, is about 605k R, 316k D and 270k unaffiliated. Ricketts has the structural advantage, and the Oct 5 Trump Grand Island rally is aimed at base turnout. The same IVN piece says the Farm Bureau backed Ricketts, and that Ricketts led on cash as of June 30 ($6.9M vs $2.4M on hand), before the Q3 reversal in the earlier reports. https://ivn.us/ricketts-calls-him-a-democrat-osborn-says-thats-the-problem-with-politics/ - [2026-10-13] The Nebraska Examiner reports that Ricketts has openly acknowledged cost-of-living pain, and he has hedged on Trump's war and beef-import policy. Ricketts also backed Trump's red-dyed diesel order, and Osborn supported the same order. That lets Ricketts blunt the anti-incumbent argument. It also shows he is not tied to every Trump position, and he is not the only candidate on the ballot hurt by the Iran war and tariffs. https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/cost-living-looms-over-nebraska-senate-race - [2026-10-15] Decision Desk HQ says SLF's rise to $15M means the GOP's main outside group is taking Osborn seriously this time. Osborn's own 2024 playbook relied on being underestimated. His 2024 head-to-head run ended at 46.7% (7 points down) with no Democrat or minor candidates diluting the field. Three minor candidates now remain on the ballot, which could split anti-Ricketts votes. https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/nebraska-senate-independent-dan-osborn-pete-ricketts - [2026-10-17] The strongest YES path: - Republicans consolidate nearly all of their roughly 2:1 registration edge, helped by the "Democrat Dan" frame and the Osborn recordings. - Osborn's gains among Republicans stay in the single digits, consistent with the 9% of Trump 2024 voters in the YouGov crosstabs. - Undecideds (3–7% in recent polls) break toward the party-line vote, as 2024's polls that had Osborn ahead did not hold. - Ricketts then wins by a mid-single-digit margin. - This needs no polling error beyond what the 2024 polls already showed. https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/nebraska/ BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on Nebraska's roughly 2:1 Republican registration edge, a polling average still favoring Ricketts, and two Osborn recording stories. They also rest on Osborn's 2024 loss after favorable polls and a more serious GOP spending effort this time. The path is a standard Republican consolidation, with Osborn capped near his 2024 share. NOT FOUND: Early-vote or ballot-return data by party for Nebraska. Any independent poll dated after Oct 12 that includes the Fischer-recording fallout. A direct Silver Bulletin Nebraska probability. Any primary-source Cook, Inside Elections or Sabato page.

YES means: Republican nominee Pete Ricketts wins the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate race. Independent Dan Osborn winning resolves NO, and so does any other non-Republican winner. - [2026-10-17] NBC News early-vote tracker shows 77,819 mail and early in-person votes cast, about 6% of 1.26M registered voters. Of the 228,774 mail ballots requested, 46% are from registered Republicans, 37% from Democrats and 17% from others. Among all early voters, 45% are registered Democrats and 38% registered Republicans. That is the reverse of the roughly 2:1 Republican registration edge. Early voters skew Democratic this early, though that is typical of early returns. The NBC Decision Desk still rates the race "Likely GOP". https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/nebraska-results - [2026-10-17] Registration is shrinking for Republicans. Newsweek cites 619,984 Republicans, 327,935 Democrats and 282,473 nonpartisan voters as of September. An Oct 15 tally had about 605k Republicans, 316k Democrats and 270k unaffiliated. The Republican edge persists, but the NO path needs only a narrow crossover (YouGov: 9% of Trump voters) plus a nonpartisan lean toward Osborn. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-to-campaign-in-nebraska-as-gop-faces-close-senate-race-in-red-state-12502967 - [2026-10-17] Mechanism for NO: UNL's Kevin Smith says the race is "closer than I expected" and that Osborn's chances "seem more real with every poll." Public polling is thin, and most of it is Osborn internals. NE-02 is rated Lean D, and SurveyUSA shows Powell up 4 there. A Democratic wave in Omaha would add to Osborn's base. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-to-campaign-in-nebraska-as-gop-faces-close-senate-race-in-red-state-12502967 - [2026-10-16] Osborn's "that b*tch" remark about Fischer has been reported by Politico. Osborn apologized, the volunteer who recorded it has left his campaign, and Ricketts and Fischer condemned it. This is the third leak in about a month. Counter to the NO case: the two earlier leaks (Red Cloud and the immigration remarks) and a 45-signer letter, including 20 GOP legislators, suggest the GOP has fresh material for the final stretch. No post-leak poll exists yet. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democratic-backed-senate-candidate-trashes-013303423.html - [2026-10-02] Nebraska Examiner on the Red Cloud town hall: Osborn apologized in person, and reactions were mixed. One local voter said the remark was blown out of proportion and she was still voting Osborn. Some voters were unmoved by the apology. The GOP turned the audio into an ad. The NO case holds that the scandal's effect is mostly priced in and has not moved the polling average toward Ricketts. https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2026/10/02/what-red-cloud-residents-said-when-dan-osborn-returned-after-shoving-them-into-national-spotlight/ - [2026-08-13] Impact Research (D) poll of 600 likely voters, Aug 9–13, shows 47–47 and Osborn's favorability at 48/44. The same poll has Republicans +11 on the Nebraska generic ballot. That implies Osborn runs well ahead of party lines, which is what a NO outcome requires. https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-chances-of-losing-to-dan-osborn-in-nebraska-senate-race-12370545 - [2026-05-11] Tavern Research (pro-Osborn) found Osborn 47, Ricketts 42 (n=1,165). Ricketts led any generic Democrat in the same poll. Osborn's independent brand is what makes him competitive. https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/2026-us-senate-primary-results/ - [2026-04 to 2026-10] Osborn has been tied or within about 1 point in several polls since December: Lake Research (Dec) at 47–48, an Osborn internal (Feb) at 47–48, Impact (Aug) tied, and YouGov (Oct) with Osborn +1. Since the 2024 race was at best Osborn +1 to +6 in some polls and he lost by 6.7, the NO case rests on 2026 differing from 2024. Differences: a D+8 national environment, Trump approval near 39%, Iran-war fuel prices, beef-import anger among cattle producers, and Ricketts's lower favorability. https://defirate.com/news/prediction-markets-not-buying-dan-osborn-nebraska-upset-story/ - [2026-10-16] Money favors the NO case. Osborn out-raised Ricketts nearly 2:1 in Q3 and ended with $2.2M against $1.1M cash. FEC data through Oct 1 show only a thin outside-spending edge for the GOP ($7.9M vs $7.3M). The SLF's jump to $15M is itself evidence that Republicans see a real threat. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/oct/16/senate-democratic-candidates-in-red-states-dominat/ - [2026-10-14] There is no Democrat on the ballot, so Osborn gets the whole anti-Ricketts vote. On timing, with election night on Nov 3 and the market closing Nov 4, a close Nebraska count could push the call past the close. Resolution then falls to certification, which Nebraska did on Dec 2 in 2024. Nebraska's final tallies will also include late-arriving early ballots. This slightly raises the chance the market stays open and resolves on the actual winner rather than closing early. https://www.wowt.com/2024/12/02/nebraska-officials-certify-statewide-2024-election-results/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is a two-way race with no Democrat on the ballot, in a D+8 environment. Osborn leads on cash, is within about 1–2 points in the averages, and led the two highest-quality public polls (SurveyUSA, YouGov), so a modest polling miss or a late-deciding electorate could flip it. Against this, 2024 polls overstated Osborn, registration is heavily Republican, and Trump-voter samples are underweighted in the pro-Osborn polls. NOT FOUND: Any poll taken after the Oct 16 Fischer audio. Any AP, Fox or NBC call. Official Cook, Sabato or Inside Elections pages (read only through secondary sources). A statewide partisan breakdown of early voting beyond NBC's early-vote tracker.