Will Alani Nu Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 150 ?

I could not find the Carbon Arc Alani Nu index values. That includes the September 2026 print and any partial October reading. The Coinbase mirror of this Kalshi market loaded, but its data section was cut off. - [2026-10-17] The market is Kalshi's "Alani Nu Point of Sale Growth in October" (event ticker KXALANIPOS-26NOV03). It resolves on the finalized Carbon Arc value recorded at 11:59 pm ET on Nov 2. The threshold is 150, which means about +50% year over year. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXALANIPOS-26NOV03 - [2026-10-17] Sibling Carbon Arc/Kalshi markets exist for other brands, for example C4 Energy for October 2026 (strike 112) and Pepsi for September. Their strikes show these contracts use brand-specific thresholds. I did not find Alani's other strikes. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXC4POS-26NOV03 - [2026-08-06] Circana scanner data shows Alani Nu U.S. retail sales up 55.7% YoY for the 13 weeks ended June 28, 2026. Its dollar share of RTD energy was about 8.7%. https://ir.celsiusholdingsinc.com/news/news-details/2026/Celsius-Holdings-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx - [2026-05-07] Alani Nu scanner growth was about 85–100% in Q1 2026 (reports differ: 85% adjusted, 100% headline). So scanner growth has decelerated sharply, from about 100% to about 56% in one quarter. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/celsius-holdings-inc-q1-2026-204316752.html - [2026-02 (FY2025 results)] Alani Nu retail sales rose 101% for calendar 2025. Q3 2025 retail sales were up 114% (BevNET). The Oct 2025 comparison base is therefore already large. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341766/000134176626000017/ex9914q20251.htm - [2026-08-06] Convenience-store ACV (weighted distribution) reached about 91% by May, up from 65% in January. Shelf-space gains for Alani were planned at over 100% across channels. Part of the 2026 growth is distribution-driven and may fade as the easy gains are exhausted. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001341766/000119312526251506/d354004dex991.htm - [2026-08-06] Reported Alani revenue was $364.4M in Q2, down slightly from $368.1M in Q1. Revenue growth was about 21%, well below scanner growth because of the DSD (PepsiCo) transition and trade costs. This is not the Carbon Arc measure. https://northwiseproject.com/research/celsius-stock-analysis - [2026-08-10] Alani Nu is relaunching Witch's Brew for fall 2026 with two new limited-edition flavors, Ruby Apple and Voodoo Vanilla. This is a possible October tailwind. The Witch's Brew LTO was also in market in fall 2025. https://www.flavorist.com/alani-nu-witchs-brew-2026-ruby-apple-voodoo-vanilla/ - [2026-09 (Barclays conference)] Management said Celsius brand had been cut too deep and that Celsius scanner declines were about 5–10%. A Northwise summary (Oct 12) says innovation and reset work was pushed into 2027. This is about Celsius brand, and I found no Alani-specific September scanner figure. https://northwiseproject.com/research/celsius-stock-analysis - [2026-10-09] CELH closed at $28.58, down about 55% over 12 months, after the Q2 revenue miss. No Alani-specific negative event surfaced in the last two weeks. https://www.stocktitan.net/overview/CELH/ - [2026-10-17] Scheduled before close: Q3 2026 earnings are expected in early November, after the Nov 3 close. I did not confirm a date. Circana data does not feed the Carbon Arc index. BOTTOM LINE: The most recent consumer-sales read, Circana's +55.7% for Q2, is only slightly above the 150 threshold. Growth is decelerating against a much tougher comparison base, so October is unlikely to be much higher than that and could be below it. Carbon Arc's panel can differ materially from Circana, and I could not see its recent values, so the threshold's position relative to the live reading is unknown. NOT FOUND: Carbon Arc Alani Nu index values for any month (including September 2026 and the partial October reading). Other strikes for this Alani market. Circana Alani data for July–September 2026. A confirmed Q3 earnings date.

- [2026-10-13] Morgan Stanley scanner data (via Consumer Spec) put Alani Nu's latest two-week growth at about +53%, down from +70% as the Witch's Brew limited-time flavor faded. The all-channel read through 10/03 was +61.2%. This is scanner data (NIQ/Circana-type), not Carbon Arc. Strike 150 equals +50% YoY. https://consumerspec.substack.com/p/consumer-spec-pre-market-wrap-94a - [2026-08-06] Circana: Alani Nu retail sales rose 55.7% YoY in the 13 weeks ended 2026-06-28. It held about 8.7% dollar share. Growth is decelerating. https://ir.celsiusholdingsinc.com/news/news-details/2026/Celsius-Holdings-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx - [2026-05-07] Circana: Alani Nu retail sales rose 100.0% YoY in the 13 weeks ended 2026-03-29, with a 9.0% share. Quarterly scanner growth went from about 100% (Q1 2026) to about 56% (Q2 2026) to a recent 53–61%. https://ir.celsiusholdingsinc.com/news/news-details/2026/Celsius-Holdings-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx - [2026-08-06] Alani Nu net sales were about $364M in Q2 2026, up about 21% YoY. Net sales growth lags retail because of the PepsiCo distribution load-in last year. Management flagged a tough Q4 comparison from the prior-year inventory build. Carbon Arc measures consumer purchases, so retail growth is the better comparable. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/celsius-holdings-inc-celh-q2-190423226.html - [2025-11] Alani Nu retail sales rose 114% YoY in Q3 2025, and 76.9% in the 13 weeks ended 2025-12-28. So the Oct 2025 base is already large, and the YoY comparison gets harder. https://www.bevnet.com/magazine/issue/2026/bevnet-best-of-2025 - [2026-10-17] Sibling Kalshi/Carbon Arc "Point of Sale Growth" markets use strikes close to the recent trend. Examples: Monster September above 104, Pepsi September above 97, C4 Energy October above 112. This suggests the Alani strike of 150 was set near the expected value, around a +50% YoY consensus. The Coinbase page for the Alani market returned 403, so I could not see its strikes. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXC4POS-26NOV03 - [2026-10-17] Resolution uses finalized Carbon Arc values at 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov 2. The index is a receipt-panel measure, so it can differ materially from Circana/NIQ. I found no historical Carbon Arc Alani series, so a Carbon Arc-based base rate is unavailable. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXMONSTERPOS-26OCT03 BOTTOM LINE: Scanner-based growth for Alani Nu is hovering right around the +50% threshold (53–61% recently, decelerating), so the outside view is close to a coin flip. The key unknown is the offset between Carbon Arc's panel and scanner data, and I found no Carbon Arc history for Alani. NOT FOUND: Carbon Arc's historical Alani Nu index values, past Kalshi resolutions for this series, the live Alani market page and its sibling strikes, and any published forecast of the October value.

YES means: the finalized Carbon Arc Alani Nu Point of Sale Growth value for October 2026, recorded 11:59 pm ET on Nov 2, is above 150. That is more than +50% year over year. - [2026-05-13] A Goldman Sachs forum summary put Alani scanner growth at 49% YoY, "decelerating from 100%". The Oct 13 and Aug 6 prints sit at 53–61% and 55.7%. So the slide from 100% has flattened at roughly 50–60% since spring, rather than continuing down. A flat 50–60% run is the Yes case. I could not open the post itself (protected account), only the search snippet. https://x.com/bjmtweets/status/2054743274079056340 - [2026-05-07] Management guided to Alani shelf-space gains of "over 100%" across channels, and the Goldman summary says Alani averages only 11 items per store against 16 for Celsius. Distribution is still being built. That supports consumer dollars growing faster than velocity alone would give. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/celsius-holdings-inc-q1-2026-204316752.html - [2026-08-06] Management said Q3 would look like Q2, with some improvement exiting 2026. The Celsius-brand SKU cuts that dragged on the core brand are done, which could free shelf space for Alani. I did not find an Alani-specific October statement. https://x.com/Ashton_1nvests/status/2085833363630207461 - [2026-08-06] Alani's Q2 growth of 55.7% came with only a limited-time Purple Cotton Candy launch. The Witch's Brew relaunch (Aug 10) has fall flavors Ruby Apple and Voodoo Vanilla. A fall LTO is a plausible October lift. The Oct 13 note that growth fell from 70% to 53% as that flavor faded suggests the lift was front-loaded into September. https://ir.celsiusholdingsinc.com/news/news-details/2026/Celsius-Holdings-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx - [2026-10-13] BofA Institute data shows September discretionary spending breadth at a five-year high, with about 86% of retail categories up YoY. This is a supportive macro backdrop for brand-level receipt panels. It is not Alani-specific. https://consumerspec.substack.com/p/consumer-spec-pre-market-wrap-94a - [2026-10-13] The same note says PepsiCo's North America beverage volume declined slightly in Q3, and Poppi is missing growth targets. Alani is therefore gaining relative to other functional-beverage brands. This is an indirect point only. https://consumerspec.substack.com/p/consumer-spec-pre-market-wrap-94a - [2026-10-12] Northwise models Alani North America revenue of $1.56B for 2026 and $1.97B for 2027, with Q3 and Q4 revenue estimates of about $872M and $860M for the whole company. These are third-party estimates, not Carbon Arc or Circana data. They do not point to a sudden collapse in Alani demand. https://northwiseproject.com/research/celsius-stock-analysis - [2026-10] Why Carbon Arc could print higher than Circana. A receipt-scanning and rewards-app panel is skewed toward younger, app-using shoppers and online purchases, which is Alani's core demographic. Scanner data may under-capture channels where Alani is growing fastest. This is a mechanism I could not verify. I found no Carbon Arc Alani history to measure the offset in either direction. - [2026-10-17] Strike placement. Sibling Carbon Arc strikes (C4 at 112, Monster at 104, Pepsi at 97) sit near each brand's recent trend. A 150 strike for Alani therefore implies the market expects about +50%. The most recent scanner reads (53–61%) are at or slightly above that level. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXC4POS-26NOV03 **Most likely path to YES.** Alani's October consumer dollars run at least about 1.5x last October. That needs three things: 1. Scanner growth holds at roughly 53–60%, with distribution gains of over 100% offsetting the tougher comparison against the +114% Q3 2025 base. 2. The Witch's Brew fall LTO sustains sales through October, rather than fading as it did in late September. 3. Carbon Arc's panel reads at or above Circana, which is likely if its app-using shopper mix over-indexes to Alani buyers. BOTTOM LINE: The Yes case rests on scanner growth stabilizing at about 53–61%, just above the 150 strike, plus new shelf space and a fall LTO. The main weakness is that the latest trend is decelerating toward 50% and Carbon Arc's offset from scanner data is unknown. NOT FOUND: Carbon Arc Alani values for any month, the live Alani market strikes, Circana or NIQ Alani data for July–September beyond the Oct 13 Morgan Stanley figures, the Alani paragraph in the Oct 13 Consumer Spec note (the fetch cut off the middle of the page), and any Alani-specific October sales commentary.

YES means: Carbon Arc's finalized Alani Nu Point of Sale Growth index for October 2026, recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov 2, is above 150. That is more than +50% year over year. - [2026-05-14] A Goldman Sachs forum summary put Alani Nu scanner growth at about 49% YoY, down from about 100% a few months earlier. Alani was already below the +50% line in mid-May. The Aug 6 print of 55.7% for Q2 therefore came after a sub-50% reading, which shows how thin the margin over 150 is. https://x.com/bjmtweets/status/2054743274079056340 (search snippet only; the page would not open) - [2026-10-13] Morgan Stanley's latest two-week Alani read of +53% is down from +70%. The Consumer Spec page I opened did not show the Celsius section, so this figure rests on the search excerpt. Two-week growth fell 17 points as the Witch's Brew flavor faded. If the fall limited-edition lift keeps fading through October, the monthly figure could fall below +50%. The all-channel +61.2% through 10/03 is a longer window that includes the peak weeks. https://consumerspec.substack.com/p/consumer-spec-pre-market-wrap-94a - [2026-08-10] The 2026 Witch's Brew is not new. It debuted in 2021 and returns every fall. The Aug 10 press release says the fall collection launched Aug 12. Only Witch's Brew and the Ruby Apple Potion Pack go to grocery, convenience and specialty stores nationwide. Voodoo Vanilla is sold only through AlaniNu.com, Amazon and The Vitamin Shoppe. The October 2025 base already contained Witch's Brew, so the flavor is not incremental against last year. This weakens the October tailwind argument. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260810714370/en/Alani-Nu-Brings-Back-Fan-Favorite-Witchs-Brew-and-Introduces-Two-New-Limited-Edition-Fall-Flavors - [2026-08-06] In the Q2 release on SEC, Circana's 55.7% is for the 13 weeks ended June 28 on MULO+ w/C (multi-outlet plus convenience). The release attributes the growth to innovation, expanded distribution and new consumers. The Q2 2025 base was only partly acquisition-era. The Alani base for Oct 2025 was in the quarter that grew 114%, which is a much harder comparison than Q2 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001341766/000134176626000047/ex9912q2026.htm - [2026-02] FY2025 Alani retail sales grew 101%, and distribution points grew 39%. ACV (weighted distribution) was already 92.6% at the end of 2025. The shelf-space gains planned for 2026 therefore start from a high base. With ACV near saturation, further growth must come from rate of sale per store, which is harder to sustain. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341766/000134176626000017/ex9914q20251.htm - [2026-10-17] Resolution technicalities that favor NO: the contract is binary, with no tolerance band. A reading of exactly 150.0 does not resolve Yes, because the rule says "above 150". The value is fixed at 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov 2. The panel updates daily, and the contract says the values are finalized. Any late-month softness, or a month ending below the strike, therefore counts in full. I found no source showing how revisions work after the first print. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXALANIPOS-26NOV03 (cited from the colleagues' report; not independently opened) - [2026-10-17] Carbon Arc's panel (receipt scanning and rewards apps) does not measure total market sales, and it samples online and in-store spend. Scanner growth for a brand that is expanding fast in convenience stores and club could be underweighted by a receipt panel. I found no evidence of how Carbon Arc tracks Alani, or whether it ran above or below Circana in any prior period. Panel noise cuts both ways, but the strike sits at the scanner trend, so any panel under-capture resolves No. This is a mechanism, not evidence. https://docs.carbonarc.ai/assets/files/ca_iceman_sales_05_18_26-2123e28af561b4ca54db1317132bd0d9.pdf (Carbon Arc docs; a different Kalshi product, which shows the firm publishes methods but not for this one) - [2026-08-06] Management guided that Celsius-brand Q3 would look like Q2, with a return to growth only at year-end, and flagged a tough Q4 comparison. Alani revenue dipped from $368.1M in Q1 to $364.4M in Q2, so growth came from the year-earlier comparison and not from sequential gains. A flat run-rate against a rising prior-year base, with Oct 2025 including the Witch's Brew peak, drives the YoY down. https://everything-pr.com/celsius-holdings-strategy - [2026-10-17] Status-quo inertia favors No. The only recent reads are 49% (May), 55.7% (Q2) and 53% (two weeks to mid-Oct). Three of these sit within 7 points of the 50% line, and the direction of travel is down, which a NO case needs. Nothing in the new sources points to a catalyst that lifts October above the Q2 run-rate. This is an inference from the dated figures above, not a source finding. https://consumerspec.substack.com/p/consumer-spec-pre-market-wrap-94a BOTTOM LINE: Every available scanner read for Alani is decelerating toward the +50% strike, and the October 2025 base includes the same Witch's Brew peak, so October needs a re-acceleration that no source shows. Strict "above 150" wording, Carbon Arc panel noise and no observed Carbon Arc history for Alani leave a No resolution as the default if growth keeps drifting down. NOT FOUND: Any Carbon Arc Alani Nu index value (September or partial October); other strikes for this market; Carbon Arc's methodology or revision policy for this series; Circana or NIQ Alani data for July–September 2026; the Q3 earnings date. The Goldman forum X post and the Morgan Stanley Celsius text were visible only as search excerpts.