Will Nevada’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 423.62?

- [2026-08-25] The latest FHFA quarterly release (Q2 2026) puts Nevada's seasonally adjusted purchase-only HPI at +1.64% quarter on quarter and +2.77% year on year. Its "since 1991" change is 331.51%, which implies an index of about 431.5 (1991Q1 = 100). That is roughly 1.9% above the 423.62 threshold. This is my derivation from the percentage change, not a value read from the dataset. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] Implied Q1 2026 SA index is about 424.5 (431.51 / 1.0164), also marginally above 423.62. This is also derived. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] The 423.62 threshold is probably Nevada's Q4 2025 SA value as currently published. The rules state it is fixed even if FHFA revises that value. I could not confirm the Q4 2025 value directly. The resolution file (hpi_po_state.txt) loaded, but the Nevada rows were cut off in the output. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt - [2026-08-25] National purchase-only SA HPI rose 2.1% year on year and 0.3% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026. The Q2 report says the Nevada rank is 27th of 51 on 1-year change. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-09-29] FHFA's September monthly release covered data through July 2026. The national SA index rose 0.3% in July to about 443.5 and was up 2.6% year on year. It has no state-level Q3 figures. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-08-25] The FRED all-transactions Nevada index (NSA, a different series from the one that resolves this market) was 647.75 in Q2 2026, up from 640.33 in Q1 and 635.63 in Q4 2025. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NVSTHPI - [2026-10-06] Las Vegas REALTORS reported the September 2026 Southern Nevada single-family median at $470,000. That is flat year on year and down 1.1% from August. It is $20,000 below the $490,000 record set in May and June. Condo and townhome median was $290,000, down 1.4% year on year. https://veryvintagevegas.com/2026/10/06/september-2026-las-vegas-housing-market-report/ - [2026-10-06] Southern Nevada single-family listings without an offer rose 6.6% year on year to 7,995. Sales fell 7.4% for houses and 12.6% for condos and townhomes. Supply is about 5 months. https://propcash.co/learn/nevada/las-vegas-housing-market-2026/ - [2026-09] Reno looks stronger. Redfin's median sale price for the three months ending September was $576K, up 6.7% year on year. Washoe County single-family median was $620K in August, up 5.1% year on year. https://www.redfin.com/city/15627/NV/Reno/housing-market - [2026-10-17] Q3 2026 state data has not been released. The FHFA calendar pattern points to a late-November 2026 Q3 release and a late-February 2027 Q4 release, which would fall before the 2027-02-28 close. I did not confirm the exact Q3 and Q4 dates from FHFA's release calendar. The pattern comes from the prior-year Q4 2025 update on Feb 24, 2026 (FRED) and Q2 2026 on Aug 25, 2026. https://www.fhfa.gov/reports/house-price-index - [2026-10-17] Mortgage rates were reported above 7.2% in an October local market commentary. This is a headwind for demand, but it comes from a secondary source. https://www.thebrenkusteam.com/blog/las-vegas-housing-market-update-october-2026 BOTTOM LINE: As of the Q2 2026 data, Nevada's SA purchase-only index (about 431.5, derived) is already about 1.9% above the 423.62 threshold. Q4 would need to fall roughly 1.8% from Q2 to come in below it. Local Southern Nevada prices are flat and Reno is rising, so any decline would have to come against that backdrop. NOT FOUND: The exact Nevada indx_sa values for Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, because the dataset output cut off the Nevada rows. Also not found: FHFA's confirmed Q4 2026 release date and any Q3 2026 state-level data.

- [2026-08-25] Nevada's Q2 2026 seasonally adjusted (SA) purchase-only HPI is up 1.64% on Q1 and 2.77% on a year earlier. It is 331.51% above its 1991Q1 base, which implies an index of about 431.5. That is about 1.9% above the 423.62 strike. The index-level conversion is my arithmetic, not a figure FHFA states. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-08-25] Working back from the Q2 change, Q1 2026 was about 424.5. That is also above the strike, so Q1 and Q2 both sit above 423.62. This is derived, not a published figure. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-02-24] The Q4 2025 report showed Nevada with a -0.05% quarterly change and +0.12% year over year. It was 322.86% above its 1991 base, which implies about 422.9 at the time. The 423.62 strike is probably the Q4 2025 value as revised since. Q4 2025 was therefore roughly flat, at about the strike. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2025q4 - [2025-08] Nevada's Q2 2025 quarterly change was -1.19%. The Las Vegas MSA fell 2.25% in Q4 2025. Single-quarter SA moves of 1–2% in either direction are common for Nevada. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2025q2 - [2025-02-25] YCharts' history of the Nevada SA index shows large quarterly swings. Examples are +3.55% in Q4 2024, near-flat quarters in mid-2024, and falls in Q4 2022 (about -1.5%) and Q3 2022. The index was at 426.08 in Q4 2024 under the vintage then current. https://ycharts.com/indicators/nevada_house_price_purchase_only_index - [2026-09-29] The national purchase-only HPI was +0.3% in July 2026 and +2.6% year over year. The Mountain division, which includes Nevada, was the weakest, at +0.6% year over year. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-10-xx] Local data are flat to soft. Southern Nevada's September 2026 median single-family price was $470,000, the same as a year earlier and down 1.1% from August. Condos fell 1.4% year over year. Redfin shows Las Vegas up about 1.1% over the three months to September. These are NSA medians and are not directly comparable to the FHFA index. https://www.thebrenkusteam.com/blog/las-vegas-housing-market-update-october-2026 - [2026-10-xx] FHFA's release calendar: the Q3 2026 quarterly release is 2026-11-24 and the August monthly release is 2026-10-27. Q4 2026 state data should be published around late February 2027, as in 2026-02-24 for Q4 2025. The market's 2027-02-28 close is only a few days after that likely date, so timing is tight. Whether the Q4 release falls before the close is unconfirmed, because the 2027 dates were not shown on the pages I read. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-08-25] The index has risen in 2026 after a flat 2025. Nevada's Q2 1-year change was +2.77%, ranking 27th, against +0.12% and ranking 41st in Q4 2025. The strike requires Q4 2026 to stay within about 1.8% of the Q2 level, or to rise. That is a modest cushion given observed quarterly volatility. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] FHFA revises history each quarter, so the Q2 and Q1 levels may be revised in later releases. The contract strike is fixed. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 BOTTOM LINE: The outside view leans toward the index staying above 423.62. The latest value, Q2 2026, is about 431.5, roughly 1.9% over the strike, and a Q4 print below the strike needs a fall of about 1.8% or more over two quarters. Nevada's quarterly SA noise is of similar size (±1–2%) and local price data are flat to soft, so the cushion is real but not large. NOT FOUND: The Nevada Q3 2026 value (due 2026-11-24). The exact Nevada SA index levels for Q1 and Q2 2026 from the raw dataset (the CSV/XLSX could not be read, so I derived them from percent-since-1991 figures). Any published forecasts or betting odds for Nevada's Q4 2026 HPI. The FHFA 2027 release calendar.

YES means: FHFA's Nevada Q4 2026 seasonally adjusted purchase-only HPI (indx_sa in hpi_po_state) is strictly above 423.62, and FHFA publishes it by the market's close. - [2026-09-29] The FHFA release calendar, which I read on the page, lists the Q4 2026 quarterly release for Tuesday 2027-02-23, at 9AM ET. That is five days before the 2027-02-28 close, so the data should be public in time. The Q3 release is 2026-11-24. This removes the timing risk that the colleague reports left open. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-08-25] The Q2 report's "since 1991" change (+331.51%) implies about 431.5. The cushion over the strike is about 7.9 index points, or 1.9%. The dataset file cannot serve the Nevada rows, so I could not check this directly. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] FHFA's all-transactions NSA series for Nevada also set a record of 647.75 in Q2 2026. It rose from 631.03 in Q3 2025 and 635.63 in Q4 2025. This is a different series. It points the same way as the purchase-only index: Q4 2025 was the trough, and prices have risen since. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NVSTHPI - [2026-10-06] The Southern Nevada September median was flat year on year, not down. The same Review-Journal piece says declining demand "has yet to push median prices lower" on a year-over-year basis. A flat local median against a year-ago base implies the FHFA year-on-year gain will not turn sharply negative. The Q4 2025 base is itself near the strike. I could not fetch the article, so this rests on the search snippet. https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/housing/las-vegas-area-home-prices-fall-20k-from-record-high-as-market-slows-3896182/ - [2026-10] For Q4 2026 to be above the strike, the year-on-year change only needs to be above roughly 0%, because the strike is about Q4 2025's level. Local data show Las Vegas flat to +1.1% and Reno +6.7% year on year. Redfin puts Las Vegas up 1.1% for the three months to September, with a median of $450K. https://www.redfin.com/city/10201/NV/Las-Vegas/housing-market - [2026-10] Reno's year-on-year gain of 6.7% to a $576K median, with days on market falling from 56 to 49, supports the northern Nevada part of the statewide index. Redfin lists Reno and Las Vegas as the two main metro markets. https://www.redfin.com/city/15627/NV/Reno/housing-market - [2026-10] The Nevada Real Estate Group base case is a Las Vegas single-family median trough of $458K–$467K in Q3–Q4 2026 before stabilising. That is a small pullback, roughly 1–3% from $470K. It would be a small drop from the Q2 peak, not a collapse. This is a broker's forecast, not an official one. https://www.nevadarealestategroup.com/blog/las-vegas-home-price-forecast-when-prices-bottom/ - [2026-10-06] The Southern Nevada median fell from its $490K peak to $470K, about 4%. The broker commentary calls a 4% seasonal pullback from the summer peak normal, and the median began 2026 at $470K. The FHFA SA index adjusts for seasonality, so a normal seasonal slip should not by itself take the SA index below the strike. https://www.thebrenkusteam.com/blog/las-vegas-housing-market-update-october-2026 - [2026-10-01] Las Vegas REALTORS' August median was $475K, a drop from the $490K peak. Nevada Real Estate Group says Reno prices rose 5.8% from June. https://nevadabusiness.com/2026/10/around-the-state-october-2026/ - [2026-08-25] The other path to YES is a hold. If Q3 and Q4 are each flat after Q2's +1.64%, the index stays near 431. The index would need to fall about 1.8% from Q2 to miss. The Q2 national gain was only 0.3%, so Nevada's +1.64% was strong relative to the nation. https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/09/house-price-appreciation-by-state-and-metro-area-in-the-second-quarter-of-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest path to YES is a plateau. Nevada's SA index holds near its Q2 level, about 431 and 1.9% above the strike, through Q4, and FHFA publishes on 2027-02-23, before the close. Local year-on-year figures are flat to positive, so Q4 2026 would have to fall about 1.8% from Q2 to miss. NOT FOUND: The Nevada indx_sa rows for Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, because the dataset file output truncates before Nevada. Any Q3 2026 state figure, which is due 2026-11-24. The Review-Journal article in full, which would not load.

YES means: FHFA's Nevada seasonally adjusted purchase-only HPI (indx_sa) for 2026 Q4, published in the quarterly state dataset, is above 423.62. This report argues only the NO side. - [2026-10-17] Timing does not help NO. FHFA's posted 2027 calendar has the Q4 2026 quarterly release on Tuesday, Feb 23, 2027. That is five days before the 2027-02-28 close. A government shutdown or a delay of more than five days would be needed to push it past the close. Nothing found suggests either. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-10-17] The cushion over the strike is thin. By the colleagues' derived figures, Q2 sits about 1.9% above 423.62, and Q1 sat only about 0.2% above. The strike is also about Nevada's Q4 2025 level, and the year-on-year change was only +0.12% at that point. So NO needs just a return to the 2025 plateau. Nevada's reading was flat for a full year before the Q1–Q2 2026 gains. I could not read the Nevada rows directly, because the file output truncates before them. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt - [2026-10-13] Rates are rising into Q4, which is the opposite of what the year's bullish forecasts assumed. The 30-year rate was 7.37% in the week of Oct 13. That is up from 6.06% in January and 7.03% on Sept 24. Pending contracts fell from 566 to 517 in one week. Closings in the FHFA data lag contracts by roughly 30–60 days, so Q4 closings will reflect the Aug–Oct demand weakening. https://zahlerproperties.com/las-vegas-market-update-oct-13-2026/ and https://www.thebrenkusteam.com/blog/las-vegas-housing-market-update-october-2026 - [2026-10-06] Las Vegas inventory is a downside mechanism. Southern Nevada listings topped 10,000 for the first time in over a decade. Zillow's valley median is down 3% year on year and Henderson's is down 2.4%. Local sources say the median has "yet to" fall, which implies lag. Clark County holds most of Nevada's transactions, so Las Vegas weakness weighs heavily on the state index. https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/housing/las-vegas-area-home-prices-fall-20k-from-record-high-as-market-slows-3896182/ - [2026-10-06] Another source reports the Southern Nevada median at $470,000 in September. That is $20,000 below the May–June record of $490,000 and equal to January's $470,000. So the 2026 spring gain has already been fully given back in the local NSA median. The FHFA Q2 jump (+1.64% q/q) coincided with the peak months. A Q3/Q4 mean reversion is plausible. https://www.thebrenkusteam.com/blog/las-vegas-housing-market-update-october-2026 - [2026-10-xx] Zillow's fall outlook has Las Vegas at −2.8% year on year. It says its start-of-year forecast of +1.2% national growth was optimistic, and that Mountain West metros have slipped. Zillow's valley forecast at the start of 2026 was only +0.6% to +1.2%. https://www.zillow.com/learn/housing-market-trends-for-fall-and-winter-2026/ - [2026-09-29] The FHFA monthly release put the Mountain division at +0.6% year on year in July, the weakest in the country, per the colleagues' report. Nevada's +2.77% year-on-year reading in Q2 therefore looks high relative to its region. That makes a mean-reversion quarter more likely. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-10-17] The path to NO is shorter than it looks, because the series is noisy and is revised. A Q4 print below 423.62 needs about −1.8% from Q2. Nevada has had single-quarter drops of that size, such as −1.19% in Q2 2025 and the Las Vegas MSA's −2.25% in Q4 2025. FHFA re-estimates history every quarter. Q2's level could be revised down before Q4 is published. The question rules fix the strike but not the vintage of the data. The Q4 2026 file's own Q4 value is what counts. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-10-17] Resolution has a literal-reading risk. The market resolves on "above" 423.62, so an exact tie, or a print that rounds to 423.62, resolves No. The probability of this is small but not zero. The threshold appears to be set at about the Q4 2025 level, which suggests the question was designed as "will 2026 exceed 2025?" BOTTOM LINE: The best NO case is a demand fade (rates at 7.3%+, Las Vegas inventory above 10,000, Mountain division weakest) arriving after a Q2 spring bounce. That could pull a noisy index about 1.8% back toward its 2025 plateau, and the data are revised each quarter. Timing risk is small, because the Feb 23, 2027 release date is before the close. NOT FOUND: Nevada's actual indx_sa values for Q4 2025 through Q2 2026 (the dataset output truncated before the Nevada rows). Any Q3 2026 state data (due Nov 24). Any published forecast for Nevada's FHFA index.