Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

- [2026-10-17] Election day. The City of Vancouver results page says unofficial results will be available after 8pm PT. No results were posted when I checked. https://results.vancouver.ca/2026/results-list-view.html - [2026-10-17] Postmedia says Sim, the incumbent (ABC Vancouver), faces Pete Fry (Green), Kareem Allam (Vancouver Liberals), Colleen Hardwick (TEAM) and Rebecca Bligh (Vote Vancouver) in the main field. Polling "suggests" Fry could threaten Sim. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/vancouver-election-2026-voters-decide-145948160.html - [2026-10-17] Leger poll for Postmedia (fielded Sept 23–30): Fry slightly ahead of Sim among likely voters, then Allam, Hardwick and Bligh. More than a third were undecided. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/vancouver-election-2026-voters-decide-145948160.html - [2026-10-17] Advance voting set a record: over 103,000 ballots across four days, up 59% on 2022. More than 21,000 vote-by-mail packages were requested. In 2022, 171,494 ballots were cast, a 36.3% turnout. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/vancouver-election-2026-voters-decide-145948160.html - [2026-09-16] Justason poll (fielded Aug 31–Sep 11): Fry 45%, Sim 30%, Hardwick 11%, Allam 10%, Bligh 5% among decided voters. Interviews after both withdrawals (Sep 8–11, n=119) showed Fry 59%, Sim 24%. https://www.justasonmi.com/?p=6484 and https://voche.me/polls - [2026-09-02 to 09-08] COPE's Stephanie Allen and OneCity's William Azaroff withdrew from the mayoral race and endorsed Fry. This made Fry the unity candidate of the left. https://www.justasonmi.com/?p=6484 - [2026-08-01] Research Co. poll (fielded Jul 30–Aug 1): Sim 30%, Allam 19%, Fry 19%, Hardwick 14%. 26% were undecided. https://www.sitkamedia.ca/poll-sim-leads-vancouver-mayoral-race-despite-less-than-one-third-supporting/ - [2026-10-09] A City Hall Watch blog post criticises the Justason poll's margins. It argues Fry and Sim are statistically tied in a fractured field. It says the winning share could be as low as about 30–32%. A commenter's Bayesian estimate gave Sim a 34% chance of leading, but that is an unverified comment. https://cityhallwatch.wordpress.com/2026/10/09/election-2026-deconstructing-vancouver-mayoral-poll/ - [2026-10-14] The Tyee: several of Sim's ex-allies, including former campaign manager Allam and former ABC councillor Bligh, are campaigning against him. ABC dropped its plan to abolish the park board. https://thetyee.ca/News/2026/10/14/Ken-Sim-Wants-Be-Re-Elected/ - [2026-10-02] At the Board of Trade forum, Sim defended his record and asked for a second term. He cited 2026's 0% property tax increase. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-mayoral-candidates-2026-civic-election-pitches - [2026-09-xx] Stephen Taylor's poll average (to Sep 11): Fry 40%, Sim 29%, Hardwick 11%, Allam 11%, Bligh 5%. The mayoral race is first-past-the-post, so a plurality wins. https://www.stephentaylor.ca/data/political/canada/municipal/vancouver/ - [2025-04-05] Sim's ABC candidates placed sixth and seventh in the 2025 council by-election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Sim BOTTOM LINE: The vote is happening today and the result should be known tonight, so the outcome will be known long before the market closes. The last published polls (Justason in September, Leger in late September) had Fry level with or ahead of Sim, with the left consolidated behind Fry and the centre-right split. The caveats are the many undecided voters and the small-sample polls. NOT FOUND: Any 2026 election-night results or a declared winner. I also found no poll from Oct 1–16 beyond the Leger poll, and no figures for Leger's toplines.

- [2026-10-17] Election day is today. The mayoral race is first-past-the-post, so a plurality wins. Eight candidates are on the ballot, and five are serious: Sim (ABC, incumbent), Pete Fry (Green), Kareem Allam (Vancouver Liberals), Colleen Hardwick (TEAM) and Rebecca Bligh (Vote Vancouver). I found no results yet. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-2026-civic-election-candidates-ballot-order - [2026-10-09] The latest poll I found is Leger, fielded Sep 23–30 (online, n=1,207 across the Vancouver CMA, with a Vancouver subsample). It has Fry 23%, Sim 19% and 36% undecided. Among Vancouver voters certain to vote, Fry rises to 34%. 62% of Vancouver respondents say it is time for a change on council, and 62% say the city is on the wrong track. https://leger360.com/metro-vancouver-municipal-election-2026-poll/ - [2026-09-16] Justason Market Intelligence, fielded Aug 31–Sep 11, has Fry 45%, Sim 30%, Hardwick 11%, Allam 10% and Bligh 5% among decided voters. Within that poll, Fry rose from 38% to 59% after the OneCity and COPE candidates withdrew and endorsed him. The post-withdrawal subsample is small (119 interviews). https://voche.me/polls - [2026-09-21] Stephen Taylor's polling average up to Sep 11 has Fry 40%, Sim 29%, Hardwick 11%, Allam 11% and Bligh 5%. The page also embeds a Polymarket market, but I did not read its price. https://www.stephentaylor.ca/data/political/canada/municipal/vancouver/ - [2026-08-04] Research Co. (online, fielded Jul 30–Aug 1) had Sim 30%, Allam 19%, Fry 19%, Hardwick 14%, Bligh 7%, and the OneCity and COPE candidates at 5% and 4%. Sim's favourability was 39%, against 45% for Fry. The same poll's headline notes that about a third of the vote could suffice to win. https://researchco.ca/2026/08/04/vanpoli-2/ - [2026-07-30] Pallas Data (IVR, n=312) had Fry 18%, Sim 14% and Allam 12%, with 34% undecided. 48% disapprove of Sim's performance and 28% approve. The Conservative Electors Association commissioned the poll, so treat it with caution. https://pallas-data.ca/2026/07/30/vancouver-pallas-poll-sims-favourability-underwater-over-a-third-still-undecided/ - [2022-10-15] Sim beat incumbent Kennedy Stewart 50.96% to 29.48%, a 21-point margin. Final-month polls had shown Stewart and Sim in a near tie (Stewart 36%, Sim 34% in a late-September Research Co. poll commissioned by a labour council), so polls understated Sim's margin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Vancouver_municipal_election and https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/kennedy-stewart-ken-sim-tie-vancouver-2022-election-survey-final - [2018-10-20] Stewart won by 957 votes over Sim. Sim trailed him in polling for most of that campaign (e.g. Stewart 34%, Sim 20% in Research Co.'s autumn 2018 poll), and he led only in one July Research Co. poll. https://www.straight.com/news/1104911/ken-sim-overtakes-kennedy-stewart-new-polling-vancouver-mayor (the 957-vote margin is from https://www.ehnewspaper.ca/articles/a-look-into-vancouvers-2026-mayoral-candidates) - [Reference class] Vancouver mayors have won re-election in 2014 (Robertson, 46.8%) and 2018 was an open-seat race. Stewart lost as an incumbent in 2022, so incumbents are not safe here. https://www.stephentaylor.ca/data/political/canada/municipal/vancouver/ - [2026-10-02] Sim is campaigning on a second 0% property tax increase and on public safety. Two plebiscite questions on the ballot cover open-air drug use and involuntary care. Council rejected his Villages Plan 10-1 in July. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-mayoral-candidates-2026-civic-election-pitches - [2026-10-17] The ABC slate had 6–7 council seats before the election. The anti-Sim vote is split among Fry, Allam, Hardwick and Bligh, but the left-leaning candidates consolidated behind Fry. Plurality voting favours a consolidated challenger. https://vanmag.com/city/politics/the-civic-election-is-october-17-heres-a-breakdown-of-all-55-of-vancouvers-city-council-nominees/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view for an unpopular incumbent in a plurality race is unfavourable to Sim. The last three public polls (Justason, Leger, Pallas) show Fry ahead, and an August Research Co. poll had Sim ahead of a fragmented field. Undecided voters were high and the 2022 polls missed Sim's margin, so Sim cannot be ruled out. The election is today, so the market should resolve within days once results are declared. NOT FOUND: Election-night results or a media projection. Any poll after Sep 30. Mainstreet's 2026 polls beyond Oct 2025. The current price of any prediction market on this race (deliberately not searched).

YES means: Ken Sim (ABC Vancouver) is declared the winner of the Oct 17, 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, which is decided by plurality (first past the post). - [2026-10-09] The newest independent poll I found is Canada Pulse Insights for CityNews/OMNI (online, n=500, fielded Sep 28–Oct 6). It had Fry 28%, Sim 27% and Allam 19%, with a ±4.4 point margin. Among decided voters who will definitely vote or have already voted, Fry led 29–28. Sim therefore sits within one point of the lead, closer than the Sept 16 Justason poll suggested. Source: https://www.newsbeep.com/764191/ - [2026-10-09] The pollster's CEO says Sim's supporters are older homeowners and taxpayers who are more motivated to turn out. He says the close race will turn on getting out the vote. About 10% of respondents were still undecided after leaners were asked. Source: https://www.newsbeep.com/764191/ - [2026-08-13] Tyee analysis of the Aug 4 Research Co. poll: Sim's support is strongest among homeowners, at 36% against 22% among renters. About 40% of Sim's 2022 voters now say they will back someone else, but they scattered, and no rival got more than 16% of them. The author argues Sim may need only about a third of the vote. This is an opinion piece, and it predates the left's consolidation behind Fry. Source: https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2026/08/13/Mayor-Ken-Sim-Poised-Win-Re-Election/ - [2026-10-09] City Hall Watch notes that the Canada Pulse top two overlap almost completely. With subsample n=427 decided voters, it puts the real margin at about ±4.7, so a 1-point gap is meaningless. It also notes Allam's upper bound touches Sim's lower bound in a fractured field. Source: https://cityhallwatch.wordpress.com/2026/10/09/election-2026-deconstructing-vancouver-mayoral-poll/ - [2026-10-15] Allam, a Sim ally turned rival, said "The pollsters don't always get it right" and that municipal races are hardest to poll in an at-large system. In 2022, final-month polls showed a near tie and Sim won by 21 points. Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/vancouver/article/fry-and-sim-face-off-in-vancouver-but-other-mayoral-candidates-reject-spoiler-label/ - [2026-10-15] The ABC campaign manager says the priority is getting out the vote and supporting the slate and volunteers. Sim turned down Fry's one-on-one debate challenge and held a phone town hall on the public-safety plebiscite. That is a front-runner-style, base-mobilising closing. Source: https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-politics/mayor-ken-sim-declines-pete-frys-challenge-for-one-on-one-debate-on-steps-of-city-hall-12888510 - [2026-10-15] Advance turnout was up about 60% on 2022, to over 103,000 votes. Higher turnout could help Sim if his machine and older homeowners drive it. Whether it favours Sim or Fry is not established in anything I found. Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/vancouver/article/fry-and-sim-face-off-in-vancouver-but-other-mayoral-candidates-reject-spoiler-label/ - [2026-10-14] Sim's ABC platform pairs a second property-tax freeze (0% in 2027) with end of residential parking permit fees and beach/community-centre parking fees. It also has public-safety plebiscites on drug use. These are aimed at homeowners and the centre-right. Source: https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/ken-sim-abc-vancouver-2026-civic-election-platform - [2026-10-13] Sim's most plausible path to YES is a plurality of roughly 30–33%. It needs these conditions: - The anti-Sim vote stays divided. Allam, Hardwick and Bligh together polled about 39% in Canada Pulse (19+13+7), and Allam, Hardwick and Bligh all draw partly from the centre and right. - Homeowner turnout is strong. - Fry's consolidation of the left stalls near 28–30%, as Canada Pulse showed. - Sources: https://www.newsbeep.com/764191/ and https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2026/08/13/Mayor-Ken-Sim-Poised-Win-Re-Election/ - [2026-09-30] Trend: Sim polled 30% in Justason and Research Co. and 27% in Canada Pulse, so his support looks stable at roughly 27–30%. Fry has fluctuated (45%, 28%, 23%) depending on pollster. The more recent Canada Pulse poll shows Fry well below Justason's 45%, which weakens the "left consolidated, Fry runaway" story. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vancouver_municipal_election BOTTOM LINE: The best YES case is a floor of about 27–30% for Sim in every poll, plus a split opposition, a plurality system and motivated older homeowners. The newest poll (Canada Pulse, Oct 9) put him within a point of Fry, inside the margin of error, and municipal polling has been unreliable. Sim does not need to be popular, only to finish first with about a third of the vote. NOT FOUND: Election-night results or a media projection, any poll fielded after Oct 6, and Mainstreet or Research Co. October polls.

YES means: Ken Sim is declared the winner of the Oct 17, 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, so he is re-elected for a second term. - [2026-10-06] A Canada Pulse Insights/OMNI TV poll fielded Sep 28–Oct 6 is the newest public poll. It has Fry 28%, Sim 27%, Allam 19%, Hardwick 13%, Bligh 7% and Ahmad 3% among decided voters. The sample was 500 adults, margin ±4.4. This is not in the earlier reports. Fry is ahead in all three polls fielded since Sep 1 (Justason, Leger, CPI), and Sim leads in none. Sim's only lead is Research Co. in late July–Aug 1, which predates the Sep 2–8 withdrawals of COPE's and OneCity's candidates. https://activevancouver.ca/your-guide-to-the-2026-vancouver-election/ - [2026-10-17] Polymarket's Vancouver mayor market, a different venue, showed Fry at about 59% and Sim at about 42% on election day, with about $284k traded. The two prices sum above 100%, so they are rough. I did not read Kalshi's price. https://polymarket.com/event/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner - [2026-10-17] The tally is first-past-the-post. Allam, Hardwick and Bligh together poll at about 39% in the CPI poll (19+13+7). The rest of the field has no path to a win. A 1-point Sim deficit therefore only needs the undecided vote or turnout to break slightly toward Fry for Sim to lose. https://activevancouver.ca/your-guide-to-the-2026-vancouver-election/ - [2026-10-14] Sim's recent budget record is a mixed-to-negative story. Tax increases were 10.7%, 7.28% and 3.9% in his first three years, followed by 0% in 2026. Critics tie the 2026 freeze to service and staffing cuts. The park board abolition attempt, now abandoned, is also cited against him. This supports the "time for change" sentiment. https://activevancouver.ca/your-guide-to-the-2026-vancouver-election/ - [2026-10-17] Fry is the sole left candidate on the ballot, and the three left parties had already limited their council, park board and school board slates. A consolidated left usually beats a divided centre-right under plurality rules. Sim's ex-ally Allam, who ran his 2022 campaign, is now a rival, and former ABC councillor Bligh is also running. Both draw from his base. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-2026-civic-election-candidates-ballot-order - [2026-10-12] Record advance turnout of 103k+ ballots, up 59% on 2022, could favour the challenger. Higher turnout in an anti-incumbent environment tends to bring in casual voters who want change. This is an inference, and I found no turnout-by-demographic data. The Leger poll showed Fry rising from 23% to 34% among certain voters (per the earlier report). https://activevancouver.ca/your-guide-to-the-2026-vancouver-election/ - [2026-09-16] Gender split in Justason: Fry leads women 60% to 19%. Sim leads men only 39% to 32%. Fry leads in all three regions (47% downtown, 39% West Side, 48% East Side). Sim's range across regions was 28–33%, so he had no geographic stronghold. http://www.justasonmi.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/City-of-Vancouver-mayoral-poll-2026.pdf - [2018-10-23] Sim lost a close race before. He lost by 984 votes in 2018 after being polled competitive, and in 2018 Research Co. had him 13 points behind (23% vs 36%) a week out. This shows he can underperform or overperform polls, so it cuts both ways. The 2018 count took until the last of 133 polling places to call. https://globalnews.ca/news/4556802/vancouver-mayor-election-poll/ and https://amp.cbc.ca/lite/story/1.4873999 - [2026-10-17] The official results page showed "Results will be available after 8pm" when rendered. No result existed at the time of checking. https://results.vancouver.ca/2026/results-list-view.html - [2026-10-17] The resolution mechanics add little for Sim. A close count could delay a "consensus of designated media" call. The 2018 race was called only the morning after, with a margin under 1,000 votes. A tight Sim–Fry race could therefore stay unresolved for hours or days. Official certification comes days later. The market has until Oct 2027, so timing does not hurt NO. https://amp.cbc.ca/lite/story/1.4873999 BOTTOM LINE: Fry led every poll fielded after the Sep 2–8 consolidation, and the CPI poll's 1-point gap (Fry 28%, Sim 27%) is the closest any post-consolidation poll puts Sim. Sim is also an unpopular incumbent, and the left is consolidated while the centre-right is split. The main cases for Sim are large undecided numbers and his polling record, since polls understated him in 2022. NOT FOUND: Any election-night results or media call. Any poll after Oct 6. Kalshi's price (not searched). Turnout breakdowns by demographic.