Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range 25 bp to 3.75%-4.00%. This was the first hike since 2023. IORB went to 3.90%, effective Sep 17. The Sep 16 hike does not count toward this market. Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf - [2026-09-16] The Fed's open-market page was last updated Sep 16, 2026. As of Oct 17 it shows no change after that date, so no hike has occurred in the Sep 17 onward window. Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm - [2026-09-16] The SEP median puts the 2026 year-end rate at 4.1%, which implies one more hike. Sixteen of 18 participants expect at least one more hike, and four expect two. The most dovish participant sits at 3.875%, which is still above the current range. Source: https://am.jpmorgan.com/pt/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Chair Warsh said the standard of confidence that underlying inflation is moving to target "has not been satisfied." Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf - [2026-10-07] The Sept FOMC minutes said most participants judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. They gave no timing and said each meeting would be approached with an open mind. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-02] A weak Sept jobs report cut October hike odds. CME FedWatch showed 17%, and December was still priced for a hike. BLS now shows Sep payrolls at +29k (preliminary) and unemployment at 4.2%. Aug core PCE was 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus. Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html, https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - [2026-10-14] Sept CPI was hot. Headline was +0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, against 3.4% in August and 3.6% expected. Core was +0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, against 2.5% expected. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month, amid a US-Iran war that began in late February. Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/cpi-inflation-report-september-2026.html, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-10-14] After the CPI, CME FedWatch showed over a 95% chance of at least one hike by year end. About 40% was for a cumulative 50 bp. The Oct 28 hike odds rose to 53.7% at one point, from 22%. The article says those odds are likely suppressed by reluctance to move just before the midterms. Other snapshots that day put October at 35%-41% and December at about 63%. These are intraday and inconsistent. Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/fed-may-now-have-to-hike-twice-or-increase-by-a-half-point-in-december-traders-bet.html, https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/10/14/fed-66-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-following-high-inflation-data/ - [2026-10-15/16] Officials are concerned about inflation. Richmond Fed's Barkin said it was "higher than I would have hoped." Governor Bowman said there is no rush. Vice Chair Barr said further policy adjustments are likely needed. Vice Chair Jefferson said the committee may need more time to reach a judgment. PPI was +1.3% for September (preliminary). Sources: https://www.aol.com/articles/fed-officials-troubled-hot-inflation-214237000.html, https://thehill.com/business/6135206-fed-officials-project-future-increases/ - [2026-10-16] Warsh declined to signal the next move. He said the economy has "broadly" moved as the Fed expected. CME FedWatch had an 85% hold probability for Oct 28 (a Friday-Oct-16 snapshot) and about 89% for a December hike. UBS expects hikes in December and March 2027. Sources: https://nbcnews.com/business/economy/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-offer-clues-rcna603661, https://invezz.com/news/2026/10/16/fed-rate-hold-odds-jump-to-85-even-as-warsh-offers-no-clues-on-policy-path/ - [2026-10-17] Prediction markets (Kalshi/Polymarket average, via an aggregator) show a hike on Oct 28 at about 14%. They show a hike on Dec 9 at about 76% and a hike at any point in 2026 at about 80%. This is a third-party snapshot, and its dating is unclear. Source: https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [Scheduled] The remaining meetings are Oct 27-28, with the decision on Oct 28, a week before the midterms. The next is Dec 8-9, with the decision on Dec 9. Data before December includes the Oct jobs report and CPI (November releases), and PCE. Both the Oct 28 and Dec 9 meetings count for this market. Source: https://thehill.com/business/6135206-fed-officials-project-future-increases/ BOTTOM LINE: The Fed hiked in September and has signalled another hike by year end. The committee median and most minutes participants agree, and December pricing is roughly 76-89% on the sources found, with a hike at Oct 28 also possible. The main counter-risks are a weak labour market (+29k payrolls) and election-timing caution. A hike at either of the two remaining meetings would resolve this market Yes. NOT FOUND: A readable copy of the CME FedWatch page itself. The CNBC Oct 14 page and the NBC page could not be fetched directly (the figures come from search snippets). The Oct 15 PPI details beyond the BLS headline. Any Fed speaker commentary dated Oct 16-17 beyond Warsh's remarks.

The question window covers the Oct 27–28 and Dec 8–9 FOMC meetings, so a hike at either one resolves YES. The Fed already hiked on Sept 16, and that hike does not count. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range to 3.75–4.00%. This was its first hike since 2023, and the IORB rate went to 3.90%. Minutes say all participants supported the hike. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm - [2026-09-16] In the September dot plot, 16 of 18 participants projected at least one more hike in 2026. Twelve put year-end at 4.00–4.25%, and four put it a further 25bp higher. The median is 4.125%. Chair Warsh submitted no dot. https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot and https://thehill.com/business/6135206-fed-officials-project-future-increases/ - [2026-10-07] Minutes of the Sept 15–16 meeting: most participants judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. They also said they approach each meeting "with an open mind", and decisions depend on incoming data. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-14] Sept CPI was 3.7% year on year, up from 3.4% and above expectations. Polymarket's odds of an October hike briefly spiked to about 50%, then settled near 30%. Most analysts expected a hold in October, a week before the midterms, and one more hike in December. New York Fed President Williams said only one more hike is needed this year. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-interest-rate-hike-seems-195052044.html - [2026-10-16] CME FedWatch had about 88.9% for a December 9 hike (83% a week earlier) and 85.1% for an October hold. Warsh declined to signal direction at the IMF meetings. UBS expects hikes in December and March 2027. (The "core CPI 2.6%" figure in this article looks inconsistent with the Fed's core PCE of about 3.4%.) https://invezz.com/ca/news/2026/10/16/fed-rate-hold-odds-jump-to-85percent-even-as-warsh-offers-no-clues-on-policy-path - [2026-10-16] Another FedWatch reading had a 15% chance of an October hike and an 89% chance of a hike by December. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-firm-but-struggles-to-build-momentum-as-fed-rate-hike-risks-linger-202610161106 - [2026-10-02] After a soft September jobs report, FedWatch December hike odds were still above 75%, and Kalshi was at 65%. Market pricing has swung with the data: October odds fell from 36% to 17% in a week. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-14] Forbes quoted FedWatch at about 63% for a December hike, intraday on Oct 14. The December odds were therefore lower before the hot PPI data on Oct 15. https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/10/14/fed-66-likely-to-hold-rates-steady-following-high-inflation-data/ - [2026-10-12] J.P. Morgan Wealth Management's base case is a hold in October and 50bp of total hikes. It says the timing, October, December or 2027, is undetermined, and it notes "two-way risk". Williams has said there is "no need for urgency". https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-at-october-2026-fomc-meeting - [2026-10-17] Hawkish voices include Cleveland Fed's Hammack, who said the Fed may need to move more aggressively if inflation persists. Goolsbee called the inflation data "disappointing". Deutsche Bank identified Hammack, Logan, Kashkari and Schmid as leaning toward 75bp of total hikes in 2026. Williams and Jefferson want more data first. https://finance.biggo.com/news/446a425e-a517-4cf3-af03-2a77b96b90e7 and https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/whos-who-in-feds-september-2026-dot-plot-4908178 - [2026-10-15] Sept PPI rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, the largest annual rise since Dec 2022. Retail sales rose 0.8% against a 0.3% consensus. Unemployment is 4.1%, and the September FOMC staff saw labor conditions "gradually tightening". Inflation is energy-driven, tied to the Iran war. https://invezz.com/ca/news/2026/10/16/fed-rate-hold-odds-jump-to-85percent-even-as-warsh-offers-no-clues-on-policy-path and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm - [Background, from general knowledge, not fetched] Reference class: after the first hike of a cycle (1994, 2004, 2015, 2022), the Fed's next move was usually another hike. The main exception is Dec 2015, when it waited a full year for the second. When futures price a hike at about 85–90% about 7 weeks out and the FOMC median dot agrees, the Fed has usually followed through, but data surprises have flipped pricing within weeks. These pre-meeting pricing figures are a general pattern I did not check against a dataset. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view leans YES. Futures (~89%), the dot plot (16 of 18), the FOMC minutes and bank forecasts all point to a hike by December, and an October hike would also count. The main risks are the Williams and Jefferson "wait for data" stance, a softer jobs or CPI print before Dec 9, and the political timing after the midterms. These sources are secondary reporting of CME FedWatch, not the CME site itself. NOT FOUND: A dataset-verified historical hit rate for "FedWatch ≥85% about 7 weeks before the meeting". Also Polymarket and Kalshi December-specific prices (deliberately not searched), and any primary CME FedWatch page.

YES means: the Fed raises the upper bound of the target federal funds range (currently 4.00%) at the Oct 27–28 or Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting, or in an emergency move between Sep 17 and Dec 9. The Sep 16 hike doesn't count. - [2026-10-16] Goldman's Hatzius team expects an October pause and "a second and final hike in December." Warsh said he doesn't "prejudge meetings" and won't say now what he will do at the remaining 2026 meetings. His remarks were the last before the blackout that began Oct 17. Path to YES: hold on Oct 28, then hike 25bp on Dec 9. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/feds-warsh-says-ai-development-path-will-be-very-bumpy-.html - [2026-10-16] Import prices rose 1.1% m/m in September, against 0.8% expected. They were up 8.1% y/y, the largest since July 2022. Ex-food-and-fuel import prices rose 0.7%, and core import prices were up 6.2% y/y. Reuters says economists think inflation is broadening beyond energy. It also says markets still expect a hold in October and a December tightening. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-import-prices-increase-more-than-expected-in-september-4954066 - [2026-10-16] Economists' September core PCE estimates run 0.31%–0.36% m/m, or about 3.1% y/y, up from 3.0% in August. This is the Fed's target gauge, and the release is due before December. Bank of America raised its tracking estimate after CPI and still calls for an October hike. Core CPI rose 0.33% m/m, and only 11 of 73 Bloomberg-surveyed economists had forecast 0.3%. https://pro.thestreet.com/market-commentary/hot-cpi-puts-october-rate-hike-back-in-play - [2026-10-09] Michigan preliminary: 1-year inflation expectations were 4.7% in October, up from 4.6%. 5-year expectations were 3.5%, up from 3.4% and 3.3% for the three months before September. The final Oct reading is due Oct 23. Hammack named expectations as the trigger for a more aggressive response. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-5-year-inflation-expectations-1568 - [2026-10-15] Hammack (Cleveland Fed) said the Fed might hike more aggressively if public inflation expectations deteriorate. The Reuters piece says the hot inflation data this week raised odds of an Oct 27–28 hike. Separately (Oct 12, Barron's), she said "more tightness is needed" and that policy is not yet restrictive enough. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/feds-hammack-warns-inflation-expectations-215355459.html - [2026-10-12] Other officials are on record favouring more tightening. Barr (Sep 23): "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Collins (Sep 23): "a somewhat more restrictive federal funds rate" will help. Paulson (Sep 22): "some modest further tightening may be warranted." Barkin (Sep 22): one hike may not be enough. Kashkari (Sep 30) was unmoved by the soft PCE. Cook (Sep 28) said the labor market is "well positioned to handle an increase in rates." https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-officials-hawkish-tone-ahead-of-october-2026-fomc-meeting - [2026-10-13] The doves are not opposed to a December hike. Williams, the most visible "no urgency" voice, said he still supports one more hike in 2026. So the dovish pole of the leadership is arguing about timing, not about whether to hike. https://hdfcsky.com/news/nasdaq-sinks-4-5percent-as-ai-financing-fears-trigger-tech-selloff-dow-gains-0-7percent-on-defensive-rotation - [2026-10-16] CNBC's analysis argues that the market is too complacent on October. Warsh rejects forward guidance, and he has at times been more hawkish than his lieutenants. Loose financial conditions, with technology investment "full speed ahead" in Hammack's words, add to the case for tightening. This is the October upside path to YES, and it needs no December hike. Futures put October at about 15% (Oct 16). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/kevin-warsh-fed-october-rate-hike-interest-rates-markets.html - [2026-10-12] Wells Fargo Investment Institute (Oct 13 CNBC citation) expects hikes between now and spring 2027. J.P. Morgan Wealth Management's base case is 50bp more into 2027. J.P. Morgan Private Bank's Rahbari describes a possible "conventional rate hiking cycle." Zandi said the CPI supports further hikes. Hikes by either meeting are therefore the consensus house view. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/cpi-inflation-breakdown-september-2026.html - [2026-10-16] Warsh described a "synchronous tightening" across global central banks, with "no free riders." The Fed would be unlikely to want to be the outlier that stops. The same report mentions two ECB hikes. https://qz.com/fed-warsh-declines-signal-rate-move-imf-bangkok-101626 - [2026-09-16] After the September press conference, CME FedWatch showed an 87% chance of at least one more hike in 2026, and 37% for two. Warsh framed price stability as the predominant focus, and the 10-year yield was near 5%. Pricing has stayed around 85–90% for a hike by December since then, a range that survived both the weak jobs report and the hot CPI. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is simple. The Fed is in an inflation-driven hiking cycle, with a committee median that implies another hike. Every named dove still backs one more hike, and September data (CPI, PPI, import prices, Michigan expectations) all surprised upward. A 25bp hike on Dec 9, after a hold on Oct 28, needs only that inflation does not cool sharply and that payrolls do not turn negative before then. An October surprise from Warsh is a second, smaller path. NOT FOUND: The CNBC Oct 16 analysis page could not be fetched, so its content comes from search snippets. I found no primary CME FedWatch page and no Fed statement after Oct 16 (blackout). I found no Oct 17 hawkish dissent signal beyond what is listed above.

YES means: the Fed raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the Oct 27–28 or Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting, or in an emergency move, on or after Sept 17. The Sept 16 hike does not count. - [2026-10-16] Goldman Sachs read Warsh's Bangkok remarks plus other FOMC comments as signalling an October pause. It still expects a "second and final" hike in December. CME FedWatch showed a 72.3% hold for Oct 28 in that report. This supports a pause in October, so the No case has to come from December. https://www.briefs.co/news/fed-chair-kevin-warsh-stays-mum-on-next-move-notes-global-ti/ - [2026-10-01] Williams said there was "no need for urgency". Jefferson said any further adjustment should follow trends in the data and that colleagues' judgment "may take more time". Evercore ISI called the message "authoritative". The key No fact is that the committee leadership has framed the next hike as data-contingent, not scheduled. Williams still expects a hike before year-end. Kashkari, a hawk, said the economy has outperformed his expectations. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-09-17] Natixis called the Sept hike "the path of least resistance". It said this could be "one-and-done" and that a "nudge" might suffice. It put the next hike in "December or January", so a slip past Dec 9 is within its range. Natixis also read the statement's "timelier return" language as dovish, since it implies the Sept move was meaningful. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-17/if-warsh-represents-most-fed-voters-more-hikes-could-be-way-natixis - [2026-10-02] Sept payrolls were +29k against 84k expected. Revisions took off 60k, and July is now −10k. The six-month average is about 65k, and wages were up only 3.0% y/y. Jefferies called it the "nail in the coffin" for an October hike. Two more labor reports (Oct jobs in early Nov, Nov jobs around Dec 4) could weaken further. That would give doves a reason to skip December. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html and https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/10/u-s-economy-adds-29000-jobs-in-september-as-prior-months-are-revised-down/ - [2026-10-02] Fed-dated swaps stopped pricing a full 25bp of tightening for 2026, as of the Oct 2 report. Pricing has swung widely since: Oct hike odds went 36%→17%→about 40–55% intraday→15%. December pricing is volatile and tied to oil and data, and it has not been stable enough to treat as locked in. https://www.roic.ai/news/fed-dated-swaps-no-longer-price-one-full-rate-hike-this-year-10-02-2026 - [2026-09-30] Headline inflation is energy-driven (WTI about $96 on Sept 29, up 13.7% in a month). Oil has reversed sharply on Iran ceasefire news before (the Jul 8 ceasefire collapse showed the same sensitivity in the other direction). A durable Hormuz deal before Dec 9 would pull headline CPI and the hawks' case down. Sept CPI core at 2.6% y/y is well below headline. The 10-year yield at 5.28% and the 30-year at 5.63% are already tightening financial conditions without a Fed move. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/03/the-fed-may-now-skip-october-rate-hike-but-december-is-still-very-much-in-play/ - [2026-10-16] A CNBC analysis argued Warsh has "left room to maneuver toward a hike" in October. In its view, the Williams and Jefferson signals may no longer speak for the chair under the no-forward-guidance regime. The same regime cuts both ways. Warsh has refused to pre-commit to December, and no official has promised it. Several Fed officials have said they are "open-minded". https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/kevin-warsh-fed-october-rate-hike-interest-rates-markets.html (snippet only; fetch failed) - [2026-10-14] UBS called an election-eve October hike "politically untenable" and expects December. RSM and Capital Economics expect more tightening. The consensus is that the Fed delays to December, not that it abandons the hike. Only Natixis explicitly flags a one-and-done and January risk. The No path therefore needs a data reversal, not just political caution. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/traders-warsh-42-chance-doing-082651946.html - [2026-10-15] Axios reported that the Sept PPI (+1.3% m/m) and CPI suggest inflation is "broadening" beyond energy. This weakens the No argument that the inflation is purely energy-driven. https://axios.com/2026/10/15/fed-inflation-ppi-warsh - [Mechanics] The window is Sept 17 through Dec 9. Only two scheduled meetings exist, and the Dec 9 decision is the last chance. A slip to the Jan 2027 meeting resolves No. Even if the market stays open until Dec 10, a hold on Dec 9 settles it. Emergency hikes are a negligible path. BOTTOM LINE: The best No case is a December slip or skip. It needs oil easing or a Hormuz deal, and weak labor prints on top of the +29k September report. Warsh's no-guidance regime and the Williams/Jefferson "wait for data" line make December a conditional hike. The No case is still thin: the SEP median, minutes, Goldman, UBS and Williams all expect a December hike, and Natixis is the only source I found that flags a one-and-done. NOT FOUND: A source from a Fed official saying December is off the table. Any direct Polymarket or Kalshi December price, which I did not search for. A readable CNBC Oct 16 page (the fetch failed). A historical hit rate for hikes priced at 85% or more seven weeks out.