Will Rhode Island’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 431.10?

- [2026-08-25] FHFA's Q2 2026 release shows Rhode Island's seasonally adjusted purchase-only HPI up 2.37% on the quarter, 4.65% on the year, and 340.57% since 1991. That ranks RI 9th among states. Since 1991Q1 = 100, I derive a Q2 2026 index_sa of about 440.57, which is about 2.2% above the 431.10 strike. This is my calculation from FHFA's percentages; I could not read the raw RI row. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] The same percentages imply RI was about 430.4 in Q1 2026 (440.57 / 1.0237, my calculation). RI was about 421.0 in Q2 2025 (440.57 / 1.0465, my calculation). https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-02-24] YCharts, citing FHFA, shows RI SA purchase-only at 430.91 for Q4 2025, up from 425.32 in Q3 2025 and 414.39 in Q4 2024. The 431.10 strike is about 0.19 above that first-print value, so it is probably the Q4 2025 value after revision. The rules say the strike stays fixed. https://ycharts.com/indicators/rhode_island_house_price_purchase_only_index - [2026-09] The Q2 2026 reading of about 440.6 is already above the strike. Q4 2026 would need to fall more than about 2.2% from Q2 for the answer to be No. That would require RI declines in Q3 and Q4 and/or sizable revisions. This is my inference. https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/09/house-price-appreciation-by-state-and-metro-area-in-the-second-quarter-of-2026/ - [2026-09] NAHB's analysis of the Q2 data says Rhode Island had the second-largest quarterly gain, at 2.4%, after Hawaii's 4.7%. RI was among the strong annual performers. https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/09/house-price-appreciation-by-state-and-metro-area-in-the-second-quarter-of-2026/ - [2026-08-25] U.S. purchase-only HPI rose 2.1% year on year and 0.3% on the quarter in Q2 2026. The June monthly index was unchanged from May. https://www.fhfa.gov/reports/house-price-index/2026/Q2 - [2026-09-29] The latest monthly release (data through July 2026) shows the U.S. index up 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. The prior June reading of 0.0% was unchanged. These are national figures; the monthly release does not give state quarterly levels. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-house-price-index-up-0.3-percent-in-july-up-2.6-percent-from-last-year - [2026-10-17] Scheduled FHFA releases before close: Oct 27 (August data), Nov 24 (Q3 2026, with the September month), Dec 29 (October data), and Jan 26, 2027 (November data). None of these has been published yet. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2027-02-23] The Q4 2026 state data (December 2026 and 2026Q4) is scheduled for Tuesday, Feb 23, 2027 at 9AM ET. That is before the Feb 28, 2027 close, so the resolution source should be available in time. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-10-16] FHFA's datasets page, rendered Oct 16, still shows 2026Q2 as the latest quarterly state data. No Q3 state data exists yet. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] FHFA says the flagship HPI is the seasonally adjusted purchase-only index. Quarterly state data comes from the hpi_po_state file (columns indx_nsa and indx_sa). The fetched copy was truncated before the RI rows. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt - [2026-08-25] The all-transactions RI index (a different series) was 1,064.86 in Q2 2026 and up 5.02% on the year. This is a different measure and only a cross-check. https://macrodatahub.com/data/us-fhfa-house-prices-by-region-quarterly-643 BOTTOM LINE: RI's Q2 2026 SA purchase-only index is about 440.6 (derived), roughly 2.2% above the 431.10 strike, which is likely the revised Q4 2025 value. A No would need a decline of about 2% or more over the next two quarters, or large revisions. The state series is noisy quarter to quarter: RI's Q3 2025 change was about -1.3% before Q4 rebounded. NOT FOUND: The exact RI Q2 2026 index_sa value, because the dataset file was truncated. The current revised RI Q4 2025 value. Any Q3 2026 state data, which is not out until Nov 24, 2026.

- [2026-08-25] FHFA's Q2 2026 release gives Rhode Island's SA purchase-only HPI as 340.57% above its Q1 1991 base. If the base is 100, that puts the Q2 2026 level at about 440.6. That is my inference from the percentage; I did not see the level printed. Rhode Island was up 2.37% on the quarter and 4.65% on the year, ranked 9th. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-05-26] FHFA's Q1 2026 table showed Rhode Island at 327.62% since 1991, which implies a level of about 427.6. The quarterly change was −0.81% and the annual change −0.69%. Dividing 427.62 by (1 − 0.0081) gives about 431.1, so the 431.10 strike appears to be the Q4 2025 level. This is an inference. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/summary-tables - [2026-08-25] The Q2 +2.37% change implies Q1 was revised up to about 430.4, from 427.6 at first print. Revisions of 0.5–1% between releases are normal for a state series. Q2 is about 2.2% above the strike. For Q4 to come in at or below 431.10, the index would have to fall about 2.2% from Q2 within two quarters. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-08-25] The national SA purchase-only index rose 2.1% year on year and 0.3% on the quarter in Q2 2026. Prices rose in 46 states and DC, and positive annual national appreciation has held every quarter since 2012. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-08-25] The national monthly SA index went from 435.74 in Oct 2025 to 442.53 in Jun 2026. Month-to-month moves were small, in the range of −0.2% to +0.6%. The July 2026 national index was up 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-09-29] New England's 12-month change slowed to 3.3% from 5.4% the year before. Rhode Island is in this division, and the region is still positive. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-09] The NAHB blog says Rhode Island had the second-largest quarterly gain in Q2 2026, at 2.4%, behind Hawaii. It also lists Rhode Island among the strong annual performers. A jump this large raises the chance of partial mean reversion in Q3. https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/09/house-price-appreciation-by-state-and-metro-area-in-the-second-quarter-of-2026/ - [2026-08-25] Rhode Island's Q1 2026 reading (−0.81% q/q) shows the quarterly series is noisy. State quarterly moves of ±1–2% do occur, but a sustained 2% drop over two quarters is rare when national prices are rising. This is my judgement and is not backed by a computed history. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/summary-tables - [2026-08-25] The Q3 2026 release is scheduled for 2026-11-24. The Q4 2026 release is not in the sources I read, but FHFA's pattern is late February, which falls just before the 2027-02-28 close. Releases are at 9AM ET. I did not confirm the exact Q4 date. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-july-2026 - [2026-08-25] The release notes confirm that the resolution series is FHFA's flagship SA purchase-only index. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 BOTTOM LINE: The strike is roughly the Q4 2025 level, and the latest print (Q2 2026, about 440.6) is about 2.2% above it. Historically a two-quarter fall of that size is uncommon, so the outside view favours Yes. The main risks are noise in the state series, revisions, and the release date relative to the market close. NOT FOUND: the exact Rhode Island index_sa levels for Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, because the XLSX/TXT dataset would not load. I also found no Q3 2026 data, no external forecasts for Rhode Island's HPI, and no confirmed Q4 2026 release date.

YES means: FHFA's RI Q4 2026 seasonally adjusted purchase-only index_sa value, in the quarterly state dataset, is above 431.10. - [2026-08-21] The Rhode Island Association of Realtors reported the July 2026 single-family median at $525,000, up from $505,000 in July 2025 (about +4%). Prices were still rising in the first month of Q3, after the Q2 jump in FHFA's index. The Boston Globe repeated the figures. https://www.rirealtors.org/news/2026/08/20/press-release/annual-monthly-gains-in-median-price-continue-in-rhode-island-s-housing-market/ - [2026-07-21] The June 2026 single-family median was a record monthly high of $550,000, up 5.8% on June 2025. Single-family closed sales rose 14%. Demand at the end of Q2 was strong. That fits the FHFA Q2 jump and is a local cross-check on the derived ~440.6 level. https://www.rirealtors.org/news/2026/07/21/press-release/r.i.-s-single-family-home-median-price-hits-550-000-in-june/ - [2026-08-20] The July release said inventory was flat year on year and about 2.7 months of supply. The association described the state's supply as roughly half of what a balanced market needs. Tight supply is the structural support against a 2%+ fall in the index. https://www.rirealtors.org/news/2026/08/20/press-release/annual-monthly-gains-in-median-price-continue-in-rhode-island-s-housing-market/ - [2026-10] Realtor.com's September 2026 panel, as relayed by a broker blog, puts the RI median sold price near $520,000, up 7.3% year on year. The same source has listings up 7.0%, to 4,321. This is a secondary source and the median is not quality-adjusted. It shows no price break in September. https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/rhode-island-housing-market/ - [2026-10-15] Freddie Mac's 30-year rate was 7.40%, versus 6.27% a year earlier. Rates are at the highest since Nov 2023 after a seven-week climb. This is the main downside risk to Q4 and is not a YES support. For YES, the effect has to show up as slower growth, not a fall of 2%+ from Q2. The index is built from repeat sales and lags closings. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms - [2026-10-17] The FHFA state file I pulled runs through 2026 Q2. The WY rows show the SA series is noisy but trends up: Q3 2025 was −1.0% and Q4 2025 was +2.7%. Q4 SA values have recently been at or above the prior Q3 value. A single weak quarter often reverses. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt - [2026-10-17] The strike (431.10) appears to be the revised Q4 2025 level, and the series is a 5-year-plus uptrend with no sustained 2-quarter RI drop of 2%+ in my sources. Per my arithmetic from the colleagues' figures, Q4 2026 needs only to stay about 2.2% above the strike's gap, i.e. not fall more than ~2.2% from Q2. No source I found shows RI at or below the strike. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt Most likely path to YES: RI's index holds at or near its Q2 level of about 440.6. Q3 and Q4 changes would range between modest gains and a small give-back of 0–1.5%. This gives a Q4 print of about 434–445, above 431.10. Prerequisites: - Local prices stay at or above 2025 levels. Realtor medians through July–September are consistent with that. - Higher mortgage rates slow price growth without producing a 2%+ cumulative drop. - Revisions don't remove the Q2 gain. A Q4 2025 revision doesn't matter, since the strike is fixed. - FHFA publishes Q4 2026 state data on Feb 23, 2027, before the close. BOTTOM LINE: Local sales data through July (and one secondary Sept reading) shows no price break after a Q2 FHFA level about 2.2% above the strike. YES only needs RI to avoid a cumulative fall of about 2.2% or more by Q4. The main counterweight is the 7.4% mortgage rate. NOT FOUND: The RI rows of the FHFA file (truncated at the fetch, and truncated again in the browser view), so the exact Q2 2026 index_sa is not confirmed. Any RI Q3 2026 FHFA data. The RI Realtors' August and September 2026 releases. Any independent forecast for RI's FHFA index.

YES means: FHFA's Q4 2026 seasonally adjusted purchase-only HPI for Rhode Island (index_sa, hpi_po_state file) is above 431.10. I argue only the No side below. The data are weak for No, and I say so where it matters. - [2026-02] FHFA's Q4 2025 report printed Rhode Island at 330.91% since 1991. That gives a first-print level of 430.91, which matches the YCharts figure. The Q1 2026 report (May 26) printed 327.62% since 1991 with −0.81% on the quarter. That back-solves to a revised Q4 2025 of about 431.1, so the strike is the revised Q4 2025 value. Revisions between prints were about +0.2 on Q4 2025 and about +0.8 on Q3 2025 (426.08 first print vs about 425.3 revised, a downward revision). The state series moves under revision, but only by tenths of a percent to about 1%. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2025q4 - [2025-08-26 vs 2026-05-26] Rhode Island's first-print Q1 2025 was 434.86 (+4.01% q/q, 11.41% y/y). The Q1 2026 report's −0.69% y/y implies Q1 2025 was revised to about 433.4. The Q2 2026 data imply Q2 2025 was about 421.0. That is roughly −2.9% q/q in Q2 2025 on current vintage, and it came right after a +4% quarter. This is my derivation. It is the best precedent for a ~2% fall within two quarters. The Q2 2026 jump of +2.37% is similar in size to the earlier spike. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2025q1 - [2026-05-26] On the Q1 2026 table, Rhode Island ranked 48th of 51 on 1-year change at −0.69%. It fell 0.81% on the quarter, with 327.62% since 1991. So the state was at the bottom of the national rankings only two quarters before the Q2 rebound. The series reverses sharply. The Q2 level is not a stable base. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q1 - [2026-06-18] The Rhode Island Association of Realtors reported that May's single-family median of $500,000 was down 2.5% y/y. That was the first annual decline since January 2017. Closed sales fell 19.8%, and the group cited buyers taking a wait-and-see approach. This is a leading indicator that sits awkwardly against FHFA's Q2 +2.37%, which was driven by repeat sales on GSE-backed loans. https://www.rirealtors.org/news/press-release/ - [2026-06-22] Ocean State Media reported the same May decline, with inventory up 2.5% and days on market rising. Realtors said buyers have "more negotiating power" but did not expect a drastic reversal. Softening demand points to a flatter or lower Q3–Q4 after a Q2 spike. https://www.oceanstatemedia.org/housing/2026-06-22/rhode-island-home-prices-drop-for-first-time-in-more-than-eight-years - [2026-08] Redfin's Warren, RI page shows the 3-month median down 3.0% y/y through July 2026 and sales falling. Redfin's statewide May figure was +2.1% y/y, with homes sold down 11.2%. Local market signals are mixed to soft rather than confirming a 4.65% y/y trend. https://www.redfin.com/city/35739/RI/Warren/housing-market - [2026-08-26] Mechanism for reversal: the 2025Q2 report shows the national SA monthly index fell from 436.56 in March 2025 to 433.81 in June 2025. That is a precedent for a national softening that coincided with Rhode Island's Q2 2025 drop. The national Q2 2025 change was 0.0%, so state series can fall while the national series is flat. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2025q2 - [2026-10-16] The FHFA datasets page still shows 2026Q2 as the latest state table, with Rhode Island +2.37% q/q, 4.65% y/y and 340.57% since 1991. Nothing has been published on Q3 or Q4. The Q3 print on Nov 24 is the next information. Until it arrives, a No case rests on mean reversion and revisions, not on any observed decline. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-02 onward] The resolution value is the Q4 2026 index_sa as first published, expected Feb 23, 2027 per the colleague report. A one-time revision to the whole historical series (FHFA says the entire index is revised with each new dataset) could shift levels by about 1% in either direction. The Q2 level of about 440.6 is only 2.2% above the strike, so a combination of a revision and a modest Q3–Q4 drop could suffice for No. https://www.fhfa.gov/media/32126 - [2026-09] Realtor.com's September 2026 panel (secondary, a real-estate blog) shows Rhode Island median sold up 7.3% y/y and listings up 7.0%. This cuts against No on prices. It also shows rising supply, which is the usual precursor to softer repeat-sales pricing. https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/rhode-island-housing-market/ BOTTOM LINE: The best No case is mean reversion in a noisy state series. Rhode Island fell about 2.9% in Q2 2025 right after a +4% quarter, ranked 48th in Q1 2026, and has a Q2 2026 cushion over the strike of only about 2.2%. Soft local sales data and revision risk add to that. No still requires a decline larger than any observed in the latest two prints, and no Q3 data exist to confirm one. NOT FOUND: The raw Rhode Island index_sa levels (the TXT/XLSX files did not load). Any Q3 or Q4 2026 state data. An FHFA-published forecast for Rhode Island. Local transaction data for Q3 2026 beyond July from Redfin.