Will Port of Baltimore container volume for 2026 be above 1,113,309 TEUs?

- [2026-10-07] The Maryland Port Administration (MPA) open-data "General Cargo" dataset was last updated on this date. Its latest monthly row is August 2026, with total_teus of 98,172. The September row is not yet posted. Monthly 2026 total_teus, Jan–Aug: 91,137; 75,795; 100,089; 97,816; 91,522; 103,024; 99,234; 98,172. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-10-17] Calculated from the dataset: Jan–Aug 2026 totals 756,789 TEUs. Beating 1,113,309 needs about 356,520 TEUs in Sep–Dec, or roughly 89,100 a month. Jan–Aug 2026 has averaged about 94,600 a month. The last four months (May–Aug 2026) averaged about 98,000. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-10-17] The same dataset gives 2025 monthly TEUs. Jan–Aug 2025 sums to about 770,641, so 2026 is about 1.8% behind the same months of 2025. Sep–Dec 2025 were 93,944; 88,560; 82,060; 87,138, which sums to about 351,702. Sep–Dec 2026 therefore needs about 1.4% more than Sep–Dec 2025. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-10-17] The dataset's 2025 monthly rows sum to about 1,122,343. The official 2025 figure is 1,113,309, so the dataset and the headline total differ by about 9,000 TEUs. This may reflect revisions or a different basis. The question's threshold equals the official 2025 total. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-01-29] The Governor and MPA announced 1,113,309 TEUs moved through Seagirt Marine Terminal in 2025. This was a record, topping 2023 by more than 5,000. The release said the CSX Howard Street Tunnel project would add about 160,000 containers a year. https://governor.maryland.gov/news/press-releases/governor-moore-announces-new-port-baltimore-records-continuing-historic-recovery-following-key - [2026-04-07] MPA commission minutes said container numbers "continue to be strong." They cited March 2026 as the 4th-busiest month ever at about 110K TEUs. The dataset row for March shows 100,089, a gap that could reflect a different basis or later revision. Ro/Ro and equipment sales were weak. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/port-commission/Apr72026OpenSessionMinutesApprovedADA3.pdf - [2025-12-09] The MPA executive director said import numbers were soft and projected the softness to continue through Q1 2026. February 2026 was weak at 75,795 TEUs. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/port-commission/OpenSessionMinutes120925.pdf - [2026-10-01] Progressive Railroading reported that port leaders expect a container record in 2026. The CSX Howard Street Tunnel was completed in June 2026, and a Seagirt grain transload facility opened in September. The Seagirt rail yard expansion (a $42M project) starts construction in October and takes about 18 months, so it will not add volume in 2026. https://www.progressiverailroading.com/RailPrime/details/Baltimore-port-eyes-volume-growth-from-expanded-grain-intermodal-capacity--77860 - [2026-01-29] The Baltimore Banner reported that Baltimore lost one weekly Maersk container service to Philadelphia in December 2025. It also reported that Q1 2025 was front-loaded ahead of tariffs, which makes a tough comparison for early 2026. https://www.thebanner.com/economy/tariffs-port-of-baltimore-shipping-containers-K5XTJFYZ5ZDW7I4RAWOAQVHFDY/ - [2026-05] Tradepoint Atlantic and TiL broke ground on the Sparrows Point container terminal, due 2029. It has no 2026 volume effect. https://msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/01glance/html/port.html - Resolution timing: the 2025 annual total was announced on 2026-01-29, so a 2026 figure would likely come in late January 2027. That is just before the 2027-01-31 close. Monthly data lag by about 6–7 weeks (the August row posted by 2026-10-07). BOTTOM LINE: Through August 2026, volume is about 1.8% below the same months of 2025. The recent run rate of about 98,000 TEUs a month, if it holds, clears the needed Sep–Dec pace of about 89,100 a month. Late-2025 months were soft (82–94K), and the tunnel's effect is not yet visible in the monthly numbers. The risks are Q4 seasonality, any further service losses, and the timing of the official announcement against the close. NOT FOUND: Any September 2026 monthly TEU figure. Any 2026 year-end projection from MPA with a number. Any MPA statement on the dataset-versus-headline discrepancy for 2025.

- [2026-01-29] The threshold is the 2025 total, not a forecast. MPA and Gov. Moore reported a record 1,113,309 TEUs through Seagirt Marine Terminal in 2025, more than 5,000 above the 2023 record. The question therefore asks whether 2026 sets a new all-time record. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Press%20Releases/Press01292026.pdf - [2026-01-29] Recent history of the series. The 2023 record was about 1.108M TEU. 2024 fell sharply after the Key Bridge collapse (FY2024 TEU was down 21.6% ). 2025 then set a record, so the series has been volatile. Two consecutive years of record-setting is not the norm here. https://mgaleg.maryland.gov/pubs/budgetfiscal/2027fy-budget-docs-operating-J00D00-MDOT-Maryland-Port-Administration.pdf - [2026-01-29] 2025 growth was helped by an early-season tariff front-loading surge that Daniels said carried the port through the year. That makes the 2025 base somewhat inflated for Q1. Weekly container services rose from 12 to 15. https://www.thebanner.com/economy/tariffs-port-of-baltimore-shipping-containers-K5XTJFYZ5ZDW7I4RAWOAQVHFDY/ - [2026-01-29] Baltimore lost one weekly Maersk container service to Philadelphia as of December 2025. This is a headwind for 2026. https://www.thebanner.com/economy/tariffs-port-of-baltimore-shipping-containers-K5XTJFYZ5ZDW7I4RAWOAQVHFDY/ - [2026-04-07] MPA Executive Director, April 2026 commission meeting: "container numbers continue to be strong," with March 2026 the 4th busiest month ever at 110K TEUs. The 2025 monthly average was about 92.8K. A 110K month is well above that average. He also flagged macro risks: the Iran war, tariff uncertainty and supply-chain inflation pressure. I did not find the 2026 year-to-date cumulative figure. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/port-commission/Apr72026OpenSessionMinutesApprovedADA3.pdf - [2026-10-01] Progressive Railroading, 1 Oct 2026: "port leaders expect to set an even higher container-volume mark this year" because the CSX Howard Street Tunnel, completed in June, allows double-stack trains. This is a stated expectation, not a data point. https://www.progressiverailroading.com/RailPrime/details/Baltimore-port-eyes-volume-growth-from-expanded-grain-intermodal-capacity--77860 - [2026-10-01] Ports America Chesapeake CEO Schmidt says the Seagirt on-dock rail facility (ICTF) expansion starts in October and takes about 18 months. The ICTF's international double-stack volume therefore ramps mostly in 2027–28, not 2026. The grain transload facility opened in September 2026, with capacity of 200+ containers per week. https://www.progressiverailroading.com/RailPrime/details/Baltimore-port-eyes-volume-growth-from-expanded-grain-intermodal-capacity--77860 - [2026-01-29] State officials estimate the tunnel will add about 160,000 containers annually. This is a long-run estimate. The 2026 contribution is limited because the tunnel finished mid-year (the April minutes had expected completion "later this month"). https://governor.maryland.gov/news/press-releases/governor-moore-announces-new-port-baltimore-records-continuing-historic-recovery-following-key - [2025-09-09] Earlier MPA minutes said H1 2025 cargo statistics were "very strong" and that August 2025 had a record 65 vessel calls. A strong H1 2025 comparison base makes year-over-year gains harder in 2026 H1. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/port-commission/Sep92025OpenSessionMinutesADA.pdf - [2026-10-17] The Oct 6, 2026 Port Commission agenda lists no cargo update item. The Interim Executive Director's update is untranscribed. No monthly TEU series for Apr–Sep 2026 was located. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/port-commission/AgendaOct62026OpenSessionFinal.pdf - [2026-01-29] Reporting timing: MPA announced 2025 totals on Jan 29, 2026, about 4 weeks after year-end, which is inside the Jan 31, 2027 close. The 2026 announcement should likewise come around late January 2027. The risk is that it lands after Jan 31, or that "Total TEUs" differs from the press-release figure. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Press%20Releases/Press01292026.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is mixed. A record in each of two straight years is uncommon, and 2025 was boosted by tariff front-loading and a lost Maersk service. Against that, the one 2026 data point found (March at 110K TEU), the mid-year tunnel completion, and official statements expecting a higher 2026 mark favour exceeding 1,113,309. The deciding evidence, 2026 year-to-date TEUs, is missing from my sources. NOT FOUND: 2026 year-to-date or monthly TEU totals for Apr–Sep 2026; the Sept 1 and Oct 6, 2026 commission minutes; any third-party forecast or analyst estimate of the 2026 TEU total; any historical base rate of consecutive record years for Baltimore beyond the 2023, 2024 and 2025 figures above.

YES means: the Maryland Port Administration reports calendar-2026 Total TEUs above 1,113,309, and the figure is available by the 2027-01-31 close. - [2026-10-07] MPA's open-data rows show a stable composition: loaded TEUs ran about 62.5K–69.5K a month in Jan–Aug 2026. Empty TEUs were mostly export empties at 22–34K a month. Empties count in "total_teus". The mix is therefore not collapsing, and the July and Aug empties (about 34K) support the total. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-10-07] Loaded TEUs rose from 2026 Q1 into mid-year. March was 69.5K, June 68.6K, July 65.2K and Aug 66.4K. Imported loaded TEUs were steady at about 49–52K a month from March to August, against 38.7K in the weak February. Weak Q1 months (Jan 91.1K, Feb 75.8K) already sit in the Jan–Aug base. The gap to 1,113,309 can therefore be closed with no monthly figure above the 103K already seen. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-10-07] The needed Sep–Dec pace is about 89.1K a month, which is below every month from March to August 2026 (lowest 91.5K in May). Meeting it requires only that Sep–Dec not fall materially below the Mar–Aug floor. The dataset's 2025 Sep–Dec months were 82–94K. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-06-23] FreightWaves reported that the Howard Street Tunnel ribbon-cutting was June 22, and that regular double-stack service began "several weeks" earlier. It also said MSC would open a new Asia–Mediterranean container service on July 1, 2026. That is a new weekly string landing in Q3–Q4, which partly offsets the Maersk service lost in December 2025. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/csx-officially-opens-495-baltimore-intermodal-rail-tunnel-project - [2026-06-23] Per FreightWaves, before the tunnel opened, double-stack trains detoured via Selkirk NY or Hagerstown. Double-stack service now makes Baltimore a faster route to the Midwest, so rail-linked import and export volume has a mechanism to grow in Q4 2026. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/csx-officially-opens-495-baltimore-intermodal-rail-tunnel-project - [2026-05-05] American Rails dated the first revenue double-stack train through the tunnel to May 5, 2026. It reported about 160,000 additional containers a year as the long-run estimate. At the roughly 3% ICTF share cited in the 2025-12-09 minutes, the base is tiny, so even small diversion gains would move volume. The Sep–Dec need is only about 4–5K a month above Sep–Dec 2025. https://www.american-rails.com/howardstreetopen.html - [2026-09-03] A grain transloading facility opened at Seagirt in early September. Ports America expected the first 200 containers to move through it in September. At 200+ boxes a week this is a small but additive export flow, perhaps 1.5–1.7K TEUs a month at full run. These are mostly loaded exports, and the facility is on-dock at the terminal that counts. https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/new-grain-transloading-facility-opens-in-baltimore - [2026-10-01] Port leaders said in Q4 that they expect a higher container record this year (Progressive Railroading, already noted on 2026-10-01). Their statement comes after eight months of data, so it is better informed than the January outlook. The 2026-01-29 Banner interview also had the MPA director expecting 2026 to benefit from the tunnel. https://www.thebanner.com/economy/tariffs-port-of-baltimore-shipping-containers-K5XTJFYZ5ZDW7I4RAWOAQVHFDY/ - [2026-10-07] The dataset's 2025 months sum to about 1.122M, above the official 1,113,309. If the MPA's headline for 2026 is built the same way as the dataset (public-terminal TEUs, with the 2025 series about 0.8% higher), the 2026 headline could be about 9K higher than the sum. The dataset sum for 2026 would then need about 1,104K, or about 87K a month for Sep–Dec. This is a possible tailwind, not confirmed. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-04-07] The MPA minutes cited March 2026 as about 110K TEUs, against 100,089 in the dataset (already noted). If the headline counts something extra (for example, private-terminal or gate-basis moves) at about +10% on some months, headline 2026 runs well above the dataset sum. The basis difference is unresolved and could favour YES. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/port-commission/Apr72026OpenSessionMinutesApprovedADA3.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The most likely path to YES is that the Mar–Aug run rate of 91–103K a month holds through Q4, helped by double-stack rail since May–June, the MSC service from July 1 and the September grain flow. Sep–Dec would then reach about 360K or more, against the 356.5K needed, with some further cushion if the headline basis runs above the open-data sum. The prerequisites are no Q4 service losses or demand shock, and the January 2027 announcement coming on or before January 31. NOT FOUND: A September 2026 monthly TEU figure. An MPA number for 2026 year-end volume. Any measured Q3 or Q4 uplift in rail or double-stack TEUs. An explanation of the gap between the dataset and the headline TEU totals.

YES means: the Maryland Port Administration reports calendar-2026 Total TEUs above 1,113,309, which would be a new annual container record. - [2026-02 data, PMSA] Baltimore's early-2026 weakness is confirmed by a second source. PMSA's February 2026 table shows Baltimore YTD at 166,932 TEUs, 7.8% below 181,114 a year earlier. Feb inbound loads were 38,666, down 12.4%. This matches the 91,137 and 75,795 monthly dataset rows from the colleagues' reports, so the Q1 hole is real. It was dug while the 2025 comparison base was front-loaded. https://www.pmsaship.com/maritime-insights-blog/february2026teusfinal - [2026-10-08] The macro tailwind is fading. NRF's Oct 8 Global Port Tracker says "we're likely past the busiest part of the year." Its forecast is for November imports down 1% year over year and December up only 0.6%. NRF says the 2026 US total will be up just 1.4%. The 2026 peak was early and stretched out, so Baltimore's May–Aug run of about 98K a month probably contains pulled-forward cargo. Late-year months fall back toward the 2025 Q4 level of 82–94K. The needed Sep–Dec pace of about 89.1K a month sits only about 1.4% above that 2025 Q4 level. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up - [2026-09-29] PMSA's August 2026 report shows East and Gulf Coast gains going to competitors. Philadelphia inbound loads rose 15.1% and its YTD total is up 48.5% on 2019. Norfolk and Savannah also gained. This fits the Banner's Dec 2025 report of a Maersk service moving to Philadelphia. The share loss is a structural headwind that the Baltimore monthly rows already reflect. Baltimore's August line was in a section the fetch omitted, so I could not confirm it. https://www.pmsaship.com/maritime-insights-blog/august-2026-container-traffic-at-north-american-ports - [2026-10-01] The mid-year tunnel completion is the only plausible upside, and it is back-loaded. The Oct 1 article says the Seagirt ICTF expansion only reaches construction in October. It is described as boosting future growth, and a separate piece in the same article puts completion in 2028. Double-stack service needs rail-carrier and shipper contract cycles, so Q4 2026 uplift is uncertain. The "expect a higher mark" line is a qualitative expectation from port officials who have a promotional interest. It comes with no TEU figure. https://www.progressiverailroading.com/RailPrime/details/Baltimore-port-eyes-volume-growth-from-expanded-grain-intermodal-capacity--77860 - [2026-09-03] The new grain transload facility adds only about 200 containers a week of exports at full capacity. That is about 10,000 a year, roughly 15–20K TEU if 40-footers. In Sep–Dec the facility's first loads were only just starting, so it adds little to 2026. https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/new-grain-transloading-facility-opens-in-baltimore - [2026-05-04 onward] Seagirt's New Vail Street inbound gate has been closed for about six months for the interconnector bridge works, so all inbound trucks use the main gate. That covers roughly May to early November 2026. It is a minor friction on throughput, and it ends before year-end. https://tosportalec.portsamerica.com/logon?siteId=SGT_BAL&_=637269390259212435 - [2026-01-29] Resolution wording is the technical risk. The primary release says "Seagirt Marine Terminal" and does not call the figure "Total TEUs." The question's Underlying is "Total TEUs … public-terminal container operations." The 2025 dataset rows sum to about 1,122,343 against the 1,113,309 headline. The two series differ by about 9K. If MPA's 2026 headline is on the lower basis, a dataset-based tally of 1.11–1.12M could still resolve NO. The 2026 outcome is plausibly within roughly 1% of the threshold. A basis mismatch of 9K is therefore comparable in size to the margin. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Press%20Releases/Press01292026.pdf - [2026-01-29] Timing: the 2025 release came on Jan 29, with a quote that "final volume totals" for other categories were still being finalized. A 2026 release in the last days of January 2027 is the same pattern, and a slip of even a few days past the Jan 31 close is possible. If no figure is published by the deadline, "Assume the event has NOT happened" implies NO. Last year's press release was driven by the Governor's schedule and is not a fixed date. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Press%20Releases/Press01292026.pdf - [2026-10-17] Arithmetic from the colleagues' dataset, no new data: reaching the threshold requires Sep–Dec to beat the same four months of 2025 by about 1.4%. For the whole year it requires 2026 to finish roughly 0.0% from 2025 while running 1.8% behind through August. Q4 is seasonally the weakest quarter. Each of Oct–Dec 2025 (88.6K, 82.1K, 87.1K) was below the 89.1K needed average. Any of the later months underperforming 2025 pushes the result to NO. The cushion therefore depends on Sep and Oct holding about 95–100K. No source I found confirms September. https://opendata.maryland.gov/resource/2ir4-626w.json - [2026-04-07] The April minutes' "110K" figure for March does not match the dataset's 100,089. If the commission quotes the higher-basis figure while the headline uses the lower basis, the unclear basis cuts against YES as often as for it. Management also flagged the Iran war, tariffs and inflation as risks. https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/port-commission/Apr72026OpenSessionMinutesApprovedADA3.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is that this is a flat-versus-record question. 2026 trails 2025 through August by 1.8%, the national peak is fading into a seasonally weak Q4, and the tunnel and grain additions are small or late for 2026. A basis mismatch of about 9K between the dataset and the headline, plus a possible late announcement, could each tip a near-threshold result to NO. NOT FOUND: Baltimore's August 2026 line in PMSA's report, because the fetch omitted that section. Any September 2026 Baltimore TEU figure. Any MPA 2026 full-year TEU projection. An explanation of the dataset-versus-headline gap. The 2025 official announcement date for any "Total TEUs" definition.