Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?

The target range is 3.75–4.00%, so the upper bound is 4.00%. The question needs a further 25bp hike by the March 17, 2027 meeting for the upper bound to be above 4.25%. The Fed's own statement page was fetched. The other bullets rest on search snippets, because the CNBC and NBC pages could not be opened. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by 25bp to 3¾–4%. The statement was published on federalreserve.gov. It is the first hike since 2023, and the IORB rate was set to 3.90%. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] The September projections had a median year-end 2026 rate of 4.1%, which is one more hike. They also had no change in 2027, with cuts in 2028–29. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] PNC reported that 12 of 18 participants expect the rate to be 4.00–4.25% at end-2026. PNC itself forecasts one further hike in early 2027. A 4.00–4.25% range has an upper bound of exactly 4.25%, which resolves No. https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Research_FOMC_Statement_16_September_2026.pdf - [2026-10-14] The September minutes said most officials judged another increase likely appropriate by year-end. They also said each decision would depend on data. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate - [2026-10-15] September CPI inflation rose to 3.7% (NBC snippet). A hot PPI followed the next day. Core CPI was up 2.6% year on year and 0.3% month on month, which suggests price pressure is spreading beyond energy. https://wsbt.com/news/nation-world/inflations-next-wave-could-be-building-as-energy-costs-spread-through-economy - [2026-10-16] Chair Warsh, speaking in Bangkok, declined to prejudge the October or December meetings. He said the economy has "broadly conformed" to the Fed's expectations since September. Williams and Waller signalled the Fed could hold in October. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/warsh-signals-steady-fed-outlook-102529600.html - [2026-10-16] CME FedWatch odds of an October hike jumped to 50% from 22% after the CPI report. They fell back to 28% on Thursday afternoon. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/warsh-signals-steady-fed-outlook-102529600.html - [2026-10-16] CNBC reported a 15% October hike probability on Friday morning. It warned that Warsh, who rejects forward guidance, could surprise markets. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/kevin-warsh-fed-october-rate-hike-interest-rates-markets.html - [2026-10-16] WSBT put the odds of a December hike at about 90% (CME FedWatch). A hike in December would take the range to 4.00–4.25%. A further hike by March would be needed for Yes. https://wsbt.com/news/nation-world/inflations-next-wave-could-be-building-as-energy-costs-spread-through-economy - [2026-09-17] Advisor Perspectives reported that markets priced one more hike in 2026 and "continuing rate hikes extending into 2027". This is a mid-September characterisation and is not dated to today. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - Scheduled meetings before the question closes: Oct 27–28 (no projections), Dec 8–9 (with projections), then Jan 27–28, 2027 and Mar 16–17, 2027. The Oct 27–28 and Dec 8–9 dates are in the source. The Jan and Mar 2027 dates are from memory of the Fed calendar and the question text. The October minutes are due Nov 18. https://tools.tnaado.ca/us/fomc-meeting-dates-fed-funds-history/ - [2026-03 to 2026-07] The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% at all five meetings from January to July 2026. Oil and Iran-war inflation were cited in the Morningstar piece. https://www.morningstar.com/economy/powell-closes-out-term-fed-chair-odds-rate-cut-2026-vanish BOTTOM LINE: The Fed has begun hiking and the current upper bound is 4.00%. The September median projection implies about 4.25% at most through 2027, so Yes needs two more hikes by March 17, 2027. Inflation data are running hot, which adds upside risk. Consistent with that, a Kalshi cut-before-2027 market showed about 5% on ~Oct 1. NOT FOUND: I did not find a current CME FedWatch probability for the March 2027 meeting or the 4.25–4.50% range. I did not find an official Kalshi, Polymarket or CME strike distribution for March 2027. I could not read the full CNBC or NBC articles, and I did not fetch the Fed calendar page for the March 2027 dates.

The target range is 3.75–4.00%, so the upper bound is 4.00%. For YES, the Fed needs a net 50bp of hikes (upper bound 4.50%) by the Mar 17, 2027 meeting. One 25bp hike gives 4.25%, which is not above 4.25% and resolves NO. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range 25bp to 3.75–4.00%. This was the first hike of the cycle. The Fed's statement cites solid growth, strong productivity and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-10-14] Before September, the Fed cut 25bp at each of three meetings in late 2025, ending at 3.50–3.75%. It then held at the first five meetings of 2026. The next meeting is Oct 27–28, with no projections. A secondary source says fed funds futures priced about 12bp of hike for that meeting. https://www.yxinsights.com/p/fomc-october-2026 - [2026-09-16] The September SEP median is 4.1% (the 4.00–4.25% range) for end-2026 and also for end-2027. That implies one more hike this year and then a hold through 2027. June's median had end-2027 at 3.6%. 12 of 18 participants saw 4.00–4.25% at end-2026, and 4 saw two more hikes. https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot - [2026-09-20] Deutsche Bank's read of the dots: 8 officials favor about 75bp of total tightening through 2027, and 6 favor 50bp. Some of the hawks rotate off the voting committee in 2027. Waller, Williams and Daly could favor easing in 2027. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/whos-who-in-feds-september-2026-dot-plot-4908178 - [2026-10-07] The September minutes show most officials judged another hike likely appropriate by year-end. https://www.yxinsights.com/p/fomc-october-2026 - [2026-10-17] Kalshi and Polymarket price a hike before 2027 at about 80%, with a Dec 9 hike at about 76%. An Oct 28 hike is about 14%. Kalshi's per-meeting hike odds are cumulative relative to today's rate, which is a different basis from this contract's threshold. Per Kalshi, the hike-vs-hold odds for the Mar 17, 2027 meeting are 61% hike and 30% hold. The same page shows Jan 27, 2027 at 38% hike and Apr 28 at 29% hike. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [2026-09-19] Investing.com's CME-based monitor put the Mar 17, 2027 outcome at 4.25–4.50% (45.1%), 4.50–4.75% (26.6%), 4.75–5.00% (3.6%), 4.00–4.25% (22.1%) and 3.75–4.00% (2.6%). The snapshot was 28 days old when retrieved. Summing the buckets from 4.25–4.50% upward gives about 75%, but that includes the 4.25–4.50% bucket whose upper bound is 4.50%. This sums to YES for this contract (upper bound above 4.25%). A hold at 4.00–4.25% is about 22%. https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor - [2026-10-03] Kalshi's "Fed funds rate after March meeting" page shows "Above 4.00%" at 92%. Other strikes on that page, including 4.25%, were not legible. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate/kxfed-27mar - [2026-07-09] Earlier in the cycle, Kalshi's "next hike" market moved a lot. It priced a hike before 2027 at 54% in July, up from 35% in mid-June, and at 80% now. This shows the hawkish repricing has been fast and may reverse just as fast. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/09/kalshi-traders-see-roughly-50percent-odds-of-a-rate-hike-in-2026-as-fed-is-split-on-policy.html - [2026-02] A Fed FEDS working paper found Kalshi's meeting-level fed funds distributions were broadly consistent with futures and forecast well. Tail contracts can have stale prices. Kalshi's contract is defined on the upper bound. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026010pap.pdf - [2026-10-14] Base rate: the Fed moved at most one 25bp step per meeting across 2025–26, with the Sep 2026 hike at 25bp. A 50bp net move in two to three meetings (Oct, Dec, Jan, Mar) means hiking at about half the meetings. That is above the recent rate of moves, but it is in line with the dots' own 2026 path (+50bp). Reaching 4.50% by March needs a further hike beyond the median dot's 4.00–4.25%. https://www.yxinsights.com/p/fomc-october-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is that the median Fed path and the July–September market repricing both center on a 4.00–4.25% range, which resolves NO. Futures and Kalshi show roughly 60–75% odds of a rate above current levels by March, but the market was already pricing a lean toward 4.25–4.50%, which would resolve YES. The outcome hinges on whether a second hike comes beyond the dots' median. NOT FOUND: A live Kalshi or CME probability specifically for "upper bound above 4.25%" at the Mar 2027 meeting. A dated, legible Kalshi 4.25% strike price. The current CME FedWatch table, which needed a JavaScript app. The Fed's Sep 2026 SEP page itself (figures come from secondary sources). Any historical base-rate figure for hiking cycles with exactly this profile.

YES means: the Fed's published target range after the Mar 16–17, 2027 meeting has an upper bound of 4.50% or higher. That needs a net 50bp of hikes from the current 3.75–4.00% range. - [2026-10-15] UBS Global Wealth Management expects a 25bp hike in December, then another 25bp in March 2027, and then a pause. That path lands exactly on 4.25–4.50% at the March meeting, with the hike made at that meeting. It is the most direct sourced path to YES. Prerequisites: the Oct 28 meeting is a hold, December hikes, and the Jan 27–28 meeting holds or hikes. (The Invezz piece is a secondary report of the UBS note.) https://invezz.com/news/2026/10/16/fed-rate-hold-odds-jump-to-85-even-as-warsh-offers-no-clues-on-policy-path/ - [2026-10-16] The same page shows CME FedWatch at about 88.9% for a December 9 hike, up from 83% a week earlier. Markets already price the first step on the YES path. Only the March hike remains uncertain. https://invezz.com/news/2026/10/16/fed-rate-hold-odds-jump-to-85-even-as-warsh-offers-no-clues-on-policy-path/ - [2026-09-25] Allianz GI forecasts 75bp more by Q2 2027, taking the range to 4.50–4.75%. That is a 50bp upgrade from its earlier call, and it implies a 5.00% upper bound at the extreme. It still expects one more hike in 2026. It cites Warsh's view that financial conditions are not restrictive and that the neutral rate should matter less. This is a buy-side house calling for a longer hiking cycle. https://www.allianzgi.com/en/insights/four-reasons-behind-our-higher-fed-interest-rate-forecast - [2026-09-25] The same Allianz note counts the dots. Four participants see two more hikes in 2026. Eight see a total of 50bp more tightening by end-2027. Warsh submitted no dot. Eight of 18 dots at or above 4.25–4.50% for 2027 is a large minority, and the chair is the uncommitted ninth vote. https://www.allianzgi.com/en/insights/four-reasons-behind-our-higher-fed-interest-rate-forecast - [2026-09-18] CNBC reported that futures implied a fed funds rate of about 4.635% near end-2027, which it said argued for three or four more hikes. Morningstar (Sept 16) said markets expected four hikes (a full point) by mid-2027. Both are above the median dot. They were mid-September readings, not current ones. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/three-words-from-kevin-warsh-have-wall-street-wondering-how-far-the-fed-will-go-with-rate-hikes.html - [2026-10-15] September PPI rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year. Core PPI was 5.0% on the year against a 4.4% forecast, and the goods component rose 2.6% on the month. Core pass-through is therefore broadening beyond energy. This supports a December hike and a second one by March. https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/indicators/262218745-us-september-ppi-inflation-surges-fed-challenge-tradingkey - [2026-10-15] After the hot PPI, FedWatch put the chance of a December move to 4.25–4.50% (a cumulative 50bp, including an October hike) at 30.6%. Another source put cumulative 50bp at 23.1%. The market therefore already gave a meaningful chance to faster tightening. https://www.investmentnews.com/equities/ppi-comes-in-much-hotter-than-expected-putting-more-rate-hike-pressure-on-the-fed/268612 - [2026-10-15] The two-year Treasury yield touched 4.95% after the CPI report and was 4.72% on Thursday. Both levels are well above the 3.75–4.00% policy range. The front end was pricing a policy rate of roughly 4.5% or higher. https://axios.com/2026/10/15/fed-inflation-ppi-warsh - [2026-10-14] Reuters strategists said hot September CPI supports a December hike "and once more in 2027". Another strategist said the Fed will probably hike in December. The 10-year was cited near 5.3%. Sell-side and buy-side commentary agree on a hike beyond December. https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/hot-september-cpi-sends-ratehike-bets-soaring-4949438 - [2026-09-16] The Sept 16 SEP table showed 2027 core PCE at 2.5% and 2026 core PCE at 3.4%. Retail sales on Oct 16 beat consensus: +0.8% against +0.3%. Strong demand plus a core PCE path that is still above target keeps the "no-landing" case alive. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-25] Allianz argues Warsh ranks inflation first and that the hike was meant to remove accommodation, not to match a neutral-rate estimate. If the committee follows that framing, the median dot's 2027 hold is a floor that can be revised up. The June to September median moved up 50bp for 2027, from 3.6% to 4.1%. https://www.allianzgi.com/en/insights/four-reasons-behind-our-higher-fed-interest-rate-forecast BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is hikes in December and again by March 17, as UBS projects. Hot CPI and PPI, strong retail sales, and a chair who rejects forward guidance and neutral-rate anchoring make a second hike by March plausible. If energy inflation persists, December and a hike in October, January or March would also reach 4.50%. NOT FOUND: A current CME FedWatch probability for the March 2027 meeting, and a dated Kalshi price for the 4.25% strike. I also could not find the full UBS note, only secondary reports of it. Other major banks' March 2027 forecasts were not found. Goldman's Sept 14 note expected cuts in 2027, which cuts against YES.

YES means: the upper bound of the Fed's target range is above 4.25% (that is, 4.50% or higher) after the Mar 16–17, 2027 meeting. That needs a net 50bp of hikes from today's 3.75–4.00%. - [2026-10-14] Williams, who sits on the Fed's informal leadership "troika", said one more hike this year "may be appropriate" but that no further hikes would be needed next year. He expects tariff and energy pressures to ease. This is the clearest on-record statement of a NO path: a hike in December to 4.00–4.25%, then a hold through March. It contradicts the Axios read of 0.75pt in total. The article was found only as a search snippet (asiae.co.kr, blocked to fetch). https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026101404272736401 - [2026-10-08] Axios (fetched) reads Waller's Oct 8 speech and the minutes as a "take-your-time" and "limited" tightening. It says this is not an open-ended 2022-style cycle. Waller said hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings." The Axios tea-leaves read is one hike in December and another "early in 2027", about 0.75pt in total. Caveat for the NO case: 0.75pt from 3.50–3.75% is 4.25–4.50%, which resolves YES. A NO therefore needs the second 2027 hike to slip past March 17 or never come. Waller's wording leaves the timing open, and the Apr 27–28 meeting is the next one after March. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller - [2026-10-16] CNBC (fetched) notes the Sept 16 median dot implies a pause after one more hike. It also notes that Warsh disowns the dots ("Those aren't my forecasts") and rejects forward guidance. He is not committed to the troika's cautious pace, which cuts both ways. The same piece cites a 15% October hike probability, and wholesale prices up 6.3% year on year, the biggest gain since 2022. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/kevin-warsh-fed-october-rate-hike-interest-rates-markets.html - [2026-09-30] The Sept 30 sell-side read (via 24/7 Wall St.) is that weak consumer and hiring data cap the cycle at one more hike. Conference Board (Oct 14) notes that weaker-than-expected September payrolls, downward PCE revisions and higher long-term yields were all cited in Fedspeak as the case for a pause. Data-dependent officials have these soft spots to point to. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/30/williams-says-the-fed-has-time-october-rate-hike-odds-fell-below-a-coin-flip/ - [2026-10-17] A mechanical point on timing: the range is fixed on Mar 17, so hikes at the Oct 28, Dec 9, Jan 27 and Mar 17 meetings all count. The Fed would have to skip Oct, hike in Dec, and hold in Jan and March for NO. It would also be NO if the Fed hiked only once more in total. Meeting dates are confirmed as Mar 16–17 with the statement at 2pm ET on the 17th, from the Board calendar as retrieved by fedpolicy.org on Oct 15. Dates remain "tentative", and moves are rare. https://fedpolicy.org/federal-reserve/march-2027-fed-meeting/ - [2026-09-18] iShares (published about Sept 17) has its baseline as one more hike in 2026, with "not the start of an aggressive hiking cycle". It describes the market as pricing "one or two" hikes in 2027, which takes the rate to 4.25–4.5% "based on both" the Fed's projections and futures. Setting the Fed path aside, only the low end of that range implies NO. https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/portfolio-insights/fed-outlook-rates-kevin-warsh-fixed-income-2026 - [2026-09-18] Schwab's read of the Sept 16 dots is that only eight dots show another 25bp in 2027. It calls 2027 "in question". The median 2027 dot is flat, so a majority of participants did not pencil in a second hike. That is the status-quo anchor for NO. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-10-16] Political and communication frictions favour slowness. Jefferson and Williams waved off an Oct 28 hike days before the Nov midterms. Hiking against market pricing is flagged as a volatility risk. J.P. Morgan (Sept 25, about) sees a December hike but "does not expect a longer-term hiking cycle". Goolsbee (Oct 15) says "we don't yet know" whether more hikes are needed beyond waiting for data. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/chicago-feds-goolsbee-calls-september-inflation-discouraging-but-favors-waiting-on-more-data-185843740.html - [2026-09-18] Futures priced a rate of about 4.635% near end-2027, per CNBC. That is the market's hawkish tail and exceeds the dot median by about 50bp. Markets have already overshot the Fed's own signals in the past. October hike odds swung from about 70% to below 50% and then to 15% within three weeks on single speeches. Market pricing for hikes is fragile, and the same could happen to March pricing. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/three-words-from-kevin-warsh-have-wall-street-wondering-how-far-the-fed-will-go-with-rate-hikes.html - [2026-10-14] Officials see the energy shock as the main inflation driver. US News quotes core CPI at only 2.6% year on year, versus headline CPI at 3.7%. If energy or the "two wars" calm, the case for a second 2027 hike fades. Williams' base case is that these shocks ease. https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2026-10-14/energy-spikes-inflation-in-september-as-annual-cpi-hits-3-7 BOTTOM LINE: The NO case is a "December hike, then hold" path: median dots flat for 2027, Williams saying no more hikes are needed next year, and Waller allowing gaps between hikes. It is also credible that any second 2027 hike lands after Mar 17. However, the leadership-signal readings (Axios 0.75pt in total, futures about 4.6% by end-2027) put the base case at or just above the YES threshold, so NO depends on the hiking pace slowing or inflation easing. NOT FOUND: A current CME FedWatch or Kalshi probability for the 4.25–4.50% range at the March 2027 meeting. The full Williams Bloomberg interview (the asiae page was blocked). Any official Fed statement ruling out hikes in 2027.