Will Illinois’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only FHFA HPI for Q4 2026 be above 327.38?

I could not retrieve Illinois's Q2 2026 `index_sa` level, so I can't say how far the 327.38 strike sits from the latest value. The FHFA state file I fetched cut off the Illinois rows. The only Illinois figures I could confirm are growth rates. - [2026-08-25] FHFA's Q2 2026 release reported Illinois's purchase-only HPI up 5.6% year over year, the fourth-highest of any state. US house prices rose 2.1% year over year and 0.3% quarter over quarter. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-2.1-percent-year-over-year-up-0.3-percent-quarter-over-quarter - [2026-08-25] FHFA's dataset page shows Illinois 2026Q2 (SA, purchase-only) changed +0.51% over one quarter, +5.61% over one year, +43.96% over five years and +234.38% since 1991. The page does not show the index level. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-05-26] FHFA's Q1 2026 release ranked Illinois first among states at +7.3% year over year. Illinois's year-over-year gain therefore slowed from 7.3% in Q1 to 5.6% in Q2, while US growth rose from 1.7% to 2.1%. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-1.7-percent-year-over-year-up-0.5-percent-quarter-over-quarter - [2026-08-25] FRED's all-transactions Illinois index (NSA, a different series from the one that resolves this contract) reads 550.76 for Q1 2026 and 565.87 for Q2 2026. That is a jump of about 2.7% over the quarter. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ILSTHPI.txt - [2026-09-29] FHFA's monthly report for July 2026 shows US prices up 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year. The monthly report covers the US and census divisions only, not Illinois. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-hpi-monthly-september-2026 - [2026-10-27, scheduled] FHFA will publish the monthly report with August 2026 data. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-11-24, scheduled] FHFA will publish the Q3 2026 quarterly release, which will include state data. This is the last state data point before the Q4 value. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2027-02-23, scheduled] FHFA will publish the Q4 2026 quarterly release (December 2026 and 2026Q4). This is the first publication containing the resolving value, and it falls before the 2027-02-26 trading close. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-10-10, approximate] A local real-estate blog citing Illinois REALTORS reports a Chicago city median sale price of $427,500 in June 2026, $425,000 in July and $405,000 in August. It attributes the drop mainly to seasonality. It also cites DePaul IHS projecting Chicago single-family prices about 5% above October 2025, and the metro area almost 6% above. This is secondary-source commentary. https://www.jasonrosenbergrealestate.com/post/chicago-s-median-home-price-just-fell-20-000-in-one-month-your-house-didn-t - [2026-03] Case-Shiller Chicago (SA) was 227.32 in February 2026, up 5.04% from a year earlier. I found no later reading. https://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_chicago BOTTOM LINE: Illinois is still rising at roughly 5–6% year over year, and Q2 2026 rose 0.51% quarter over quarter. The strike's distance from the Q2 and Q3 `index_sa` levels is the key unknown. The forecaster needs the Q2 Illinois `index_sa` value from FHFA's state file, and the 2026-11-24 Q3 release will give the next print. NOT FOUND: Illinois's Q2 2026 `index_sa` level (the state file's Illinois rows were truncated in my fetch). The Q4 2025 and Q4 2024 Illinois levels. Any Illinois-specific monthly FHFA data. Any Case-Shiller Chicago reading after February 2026. Any sibling-strike prices.

- [2026-08-25] The latest published Illinois value is 2026Q2. The FHFA Purchase-Only SA table shows Illinois 4th, with a 5.61% one-year change, 0.51% quarterly change, and 234.38% change since 1991Q1 . The series is based at 1991Q1=100, so the implied 2026Q2 index is about 334.4. I computed that figure and did not read it from the dataset, because the Illinois rows were cut off when I fetched the state file. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets - [2026-05-26] 2026Q1: Illinois ranked 1st, with 7.31% one-year growth, 1.73% quarterly growth, and 233.04% since 1991Q1 . That implies about 333.0 at first release. Q2's 0.51% quarterly gain on a 334.4 level implies a revised Q1 of about 332.7, so earlier quarters get revised by a few tenths of a point. Resolution uses the first publication, so later revisions don't matter. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q1 - [2026-02-24] 2025Q4: Illinois rose 6.09% over the year and 1.46% in the quarter, and stood 227.49% above 1991Q1 . That implies about 327.5. The 327.38 strike is almost exactly this Q4 2025 level, probably as revised. So the contract is effectively asking whether Illinois Q4-over-Q4 growth is positive. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2025q4 - [2026-10-17] The implied cushion is large. Q2 2026 (about 334.4) is roughly 2.1% above 327.38. Q4 2026 would have to fall more than about 2.1% over two quarters to resolve No. Illinois's annual change was +6.7% in Q2 2025, +6.9% in Q3 2025, +6.1% in Q4 2025, +7.3% in Q1 2026 and +5.6% in Q2 2026. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-2.1-percent-year-over-year-up-0.3-percent-quarter-over-quarter - [2026-08-25] Nationally, US prices rose 2.1% year over year to Q2 2026 and 0.3% over the quarter . The US has had positive annual appreciation every quarter since the start of 2012 , so there have been no national annual declines in about 14 years. Illinois's recent quarterly changes have been positive (+1.46%, +1.73%, +0.51%). https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-1.7-percent-year-over-year-up-0.5-percent-quarter-over-quarter - [2026-09-29] The monthly national index kept rising. US prices rose 0.3% in July from June, and 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026 . This is a national figure, with no Illinois monthly series. The next monthly release is 2026-10-27 (August data). The Q4 release is expected in late February 2027 (the 2025 equivalent was 2026-02-24), around the 2027-02-26 market close. https://www.fhfa.gov/ - [2026-09] Illinois private-sector data is still rising. Redfin shows Illinois median prices in September 2026 up 7.1% year over year, at a median of $323,321 . Realtor.com's median listing price was $324,950 in September, versus $329,900 in June. These sources support the case that there is no sharp fall. https://www.redfin.com/state/Illinois/housing-market - [2025-12] Forecasts point to continued gains. The Illinois REALTORS/DePaul forecast has statewide median prices up about 3.4% in 2026, and the Chicago region up about 5% . This is a median-price forecast, not an FHFA index forecast. https://www.jvmlending.com/blog/illinois-real-estate-market-forecast/ - [Historical] The index is a repeat-sales index with seasonal adjustment, and quarterly noise can be sizeable. WY, for example, moved from 546.42 in 2025Q2 to 540.94 in 2025Q3 and then 555.35 in 2025Q4. A 2%+ drop over two quarters in a large state like Illinois has been rare outside the 2008–11 bust. That is my own judgement from the data and not a source-confirmed statistic. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt - [2026-10-17] Q3 2026 FHFA state data comes out on about 2026-11-25. I could not confirm the date. No Illinois Q3 value is public yet. BOTTOM LINE: The strike is about the Q4 2025 level, and Illinois's Q2 2026 index is about 2% above it. Based on the reference class, YES needs only that Q4-over-Q4 growth stays positive, and a No needs an unusual 2%+ two-quarter decline. The main risks are index noise and the exact Q4 2025 base as revised. NOT FOUND: The Illinois 2026Q2 index_sa value and the revised Q4 2025 value as printed in the FHFA state file, because the Illinois rows were truncated in the fetch. The levels above are derived from "since 1991Q1" percentages. I also found no FHFA Illinois Q3 2026 data, no FHFA-specific forecasts for Illinois, and no other markets on this contract.

YES means: Illinois's first-published FHFA purchase-only `index_sa` for 2026 Q4 (due about 2027-02-23) prints above 327.38. This is roughly the Q4 2025 level, so YES needs Q4-over-Q4 growth to stay positive. - [2026-09-29] Case-Shiller Chicago, the largest metro in Illinois, was up 6.9% year over year in July 2026. It led all 20 metros for the fifth straight month, and Chicago's monthly changes were positive. This comes from a different index, but it covers the same market through May–July. It points to no downturn before Q3. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-cotality-case-shiller-index-reports-annual-gain-in-july-2026-302893034.html - [2026-08-25] The FHFA Q2 report says Elgin, IL had the largest 100-MSA gain at 7.7%. The East North Central division rose 4.5% year over year. Illinois's slowdown from 7.3% to 5.6% year over year is therefore not a regional rollover. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-09-29] The Q2 report's twelve-month table shows East North Central at 4.9% for the twelve months to June 2026, versus 5.1% before. The monthly national index in that file rose from 432.56 in June 2025 to 442.53 in June 2026. It was 439.97 in December 2025 and 441.19 in January 2026. That is a steady upward drift with no sign of national weakness. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-08-25] FRED's all-transactions Illinois index (NSA) rose 2.7% in Q2 2026, from 550.76 to 565.87. It was 544.64 in Q4 2025. Q2 2026 is therefore 3.9% above Q4 2025 on this broader series, which supports the cushion above the strike. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/ILSTHPI.txt - [2026-10-06] InfoSparks data for September 2026 shows every tracked Chicago northwest suburb up year over year, with Park Ridge +20.1% and Skokie +10.5%. Every tracked western suburb is also up, with Wheaton +10.0% and Elmhurst +9.6%. Closings in Q3 therefore remain strong in the suburbs, which carry heavy weight in repeat-sales indexes. https://www.optionpremier.com/blogs/northwest-chicago-suburbs-home-prices-september-2026 - [2026-10-16] Redfin's Illinois September median is $323,321, up 7.1% year over year. Months of supply is about 3. Listings are up only 2.0% and sales are down just 0.86%. A tight market supports prices through Q3 closings. https://www.redfin.com/state/Illinois/housing-market - [2026-07] Illinois REALTORS reported a June 2026 statewide median of $345,000, up 6.2% year over year. Statewide inventory was down 7.4% and Chicago metro inventory down 14.4%. This is a supply-constrained market, which is the mechanism behind sustained appreciation. https://www.illinoisrealtors.org/blog/illinois-home-prices-and-home-sales-higher-in-june-inventory-see-year-over-year-decline/ - [2026-10-15] Freddie Mac's 30-year rate was 7.40%, up from 6.30% a year earlier. Fannie Mae's October forecast has 7.4% in Q4 2026. This is the main headwind. The purchase-only index covers closed sales that were contracted earlier at lower rates, and the supply shortage keeps owners locked in. Q4 closings are mostly priced in the Aug–Oct contract period. https://www.thestreet.com/real-estate/fannie-mae-mortgage-rate-predictions - [2026-08-25] Wyoming's 2025 Q2→Q3 index fell 1.0% and then rose 2.7%. That shows state-level quarterly noise of about ±1–2%. Illinois's roughly 2% cushion is larger than a typical single-quarter wobble. It also suggests a drop in Q3 would likely partly reverse. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt - [2026-10-17] The most likely path to YES needs three things. (1) Q3 2026 shows no more than a small decline, since Q2 is about 2% above the strike. (2) Q4 growth stays flat or positive despite 7.4% mortgage rates. (3) The first-published Q4 value is not hit by a large downward revision to earlier quarters. Chicago leadership and tight supply make this the default trajectory. BOTTOM LINE: Illinois's roughly 2% cushion at Q2 2026 (per colleagues' derived level), strong Chicago Case-Shiller data through July, and tight supply make YES the default path. YES fails only if a sharp rate-driven reversal of more than about 2% arrives over Q3 and Q4. NOT FOUND: The Illinois Q2 2026 `index_sa` level as printed. The state file fetch cut off the Illinois rows. Any Illinois Q3 2026 FHFA data, Case-Shiller Chicago data for August or later, and any FHFA state-level forecast.

YES means: Illinois's `index_sa` for 2026 Q4 in FHFA's first publication of that value (scheduled 2027-02-23) is strictly above 327.38. Argument for NO. It is thin, and the evidence mostly cuts against it. - [2026-08-25] The Q2 release shows Illinois +0.51% over the quarter, the weakest quarterly gain in the run of recent prints. Elgin, IL (MSAD) fell 0.55% over the quarter, and Chicago MSAD rose only 0.54%. That is a deceleration from Q1's +1.73%. Illinois was also the only top-5 state whose annual rate fell sharply, from 7.3% to 5.6%. If the slowdown continues, momentum is fading from a high base. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/hpi/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2026q2 - [2026-10-17] No Illinois `index_sa` level for Q2 2026 could be read, because the state file fetched was truncated. The colleagues' implied level of about 334.4 is derived from the "since 1991" percentage, not read from the file. If the strike was set from a revised Q4 2025 value, the cushion is only the roughly 2% implied by that derivation. A larger-than-assumed Q4 2025 base revision would shrink it. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt - [2026-10-17] The file shows the index can fall sharply between quarters, even in a boom. Wyoming's `index_sa` fell from 546.42 in 2025 Q2 to 540.94 in 2025 Q3, about -1.0%. Wyoming then jumped to 555.35 in Q4 and slipped to 554.01 in Q1 2026. That is noise in the first-print quarterly series, and it matters for a strike this close to the level. Wyoming is a small state, so Illinois should be much less noisy. https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/quarterly_datasets/hpi_po_state.txt - [2026-09-29] Case-Shiller Chicago was 238.61 in July, up 0.51% month over month and 6.86% year over year. Chicago is still accelerating, with a June gain of 1.00%. Chicago was the top metro for a fifth straight month, so this is evidence against No. A reversal would have to come in Q3–Q4. https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SPGI/s-p-cotality-case-shiller-index-reports-annual-gain-in-july-f5u2nfxnl2g6.html - [2026-09-29] Case-Shiller said seasonal factors weighed on July: NSA monthly gains were smaller than SA gains. It also described July's national monthly gain as sluggish. The US is still only up 1.9% year over year, and inflation of 3.4% is eroding real prices. A macro headwind is possible, but nothing in these sources points to nominal declines. https://press.spglobal.com/2026-09-29-S-P-Cotality-Case-Shiller-Index-Reports-Annual-Gain-in-July-2026 - [2026-10-12] A third-party tracker using the FHFA file reports Illinois +5.5% year over year and +0.5% quarter over quarter in Q2. It says prices are "at their highest level since 2020" and 0.0% below the peak. So Illinois is at a peak, and a mean-reversion pullback is possible. The same page counts four states with annual declines, which shows regional reversals do happen. https://startbusinessbystate.com/home-prices-falling-by-state/ - [2026-10-17] On timing, the Q4 2026 value is scheduled for 2027-02-23, three days before the 2027-02-26 close. A delay of more than three days would push publication past the close, but this is not a strong NO path. FHFA's 2027 calendar lists Tuesday, February 23 for the quarterly index covering "December 2026 and 2026Q4". https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi - [2026-08-25] Resolution is on the first publication, and revisions don't count. FHFA's Q2 release said the next quarterly report, with Q3 data, is due November 24, 2026. A Q3 print would give the first look at whether Illinois has turned. It is not out yet. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-2.1-percent-year-over-year-up-0.3-percent-quarter-over-quarter BOTTOM LINE: The No case needs Illinois `index_sa` to fall about 2% or more from Q2 2026 to Q4 2026 (using the derived ~334.4), or a publication slip past February 26. Neither has support in the sources found: Chicago Case-Shiller was still rising through July. The best No arguments are fading FHFA momentum (+0.51% in Q2), the index's quarterly noise, and the uncertain base level. NOT FOUND: Illinois's actual Q2 2026 `index_sa` level and its revised Q4 2025 level, because the state file was truncated. Any Illinois Q3 2026 FHFA value. Any evidence of a pending FHFA schedule change or methodology change that would hit the Q4 2026 value. Any sibling-strike data.