Will BOI's total annual passengers in 2026 be above 5,229,399? — Above 5,229,399 total passengers

- [2026-01-23] Boise Airport's official 2025 total was 5,229,399 passengers, up from 4,990,885 in 2024. That is the threshold for this question: 2026 must beat the 2025 record. https://www.cityofboise.org/news/airport/2026/january/new-milestone-for-passenger-traffic-just-in-time-for-boi-100 - [2026-01 data, reported 2026-05-08] January 2026 had 382,191 passengers, against 380,739 in January 2025 (+0.4%). BOI's communications manager said 2026 was "trending ahead of last year's pace." https://idahobusinessreview.com/2026/05/08/boise-airport-100-years-5-million-passengers/ - [2026-09-02] The airport commission's Sept. 2 report (the latest primary source I found) says total passengers through July 2026 were 3,027,949. The same period was 2,998,847 in 2025, so 2026 is up about 1%. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf - [2026-09-02] The same report says July 2026 was BOI's busiest month ever, with enplanements up nearly 1% on July 2025, the previous record. The chart shows 246,152 in July 2026 against 244,177 in July 2025. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf - [Derived from the above, 2026-10-17] 2025 passengers for Aug–Dec were 2,230,552 (5,229,399 minus 2,998,847). 2026 needs more than 2,201,450 for Aug–Dec, which is a drop of no more than about 1.3% year on year. This is my arithmetic. It assumes the commission report's YTD figures use the same "total passengers" basis as the annual figure. - [2026-10-14] BTS data (scheduled enplaned revenue passengers, 12 months ending July 2026) shows BOI arrivals at 2,589k against 2,553k a year earlier (+1.4%). https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?20=E&Nv42146=ObV&Nv42146_anzr=O1v5r%2C+VQ%3A+O1v5r+Nv4+gr4zv0ny&pn44vr4=SNPgf - [2026-10-06] The airport now has nonstop service to 30 destinations, counting seasonal routes. Southwest announced seasonal Nashville service for June–July 2027. Earlier 2026 additions: Alaska to Anchorage (June to mid-August), Alaska to Honolulu from Dec. 17, Alaska to Santa Rosa from Nov. 17 (BoiseDev gives Nov. 17; the Alaska announcement reported Nov. 1), and Frontier to Las Vegas. https://boisedev.com/news/2026/10/06/grab-your-cowboy-boots-boi-to-nashville-takes-off-next-summer/ - [2026-09-02] Operational context: runway 10L-28R reconstruction is in Phase 3, with Taxiway E closed for this phase. The Concourse A apron work continues. Airport operating revenue is flat year on year. The director seat is vacant, with an interim director in place and a new director expected to be announced in winter. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf - [2026-05-08] Growth has slowed sharply: 2025 was up about 5% on 2024 and was up 8% YTD as of Aug 2025. 2026 is running about +1% YTD. https://citizenportal.ai/articles/6586219/idaho/ada-county/boise/boise-city/boise-airport-says-passenger-traffic-up-8-year-to-date-airlines-adding-capacity-and-new-routes - [Resolution timing] Boise Airport says monthly statistics come out about 30 days after month-end. The December 2026 figure should therefore appear around late January 2027, before the 2027-02-19 close. Nothing in the sources I read shows an earlier early-close trigger. - [Data-quality note] KTVB misprinted the 2025 total as 5,299,399. The official figure and the contract threshold are 5,229,399. https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/boise-airport-sets-new-traffic-record-fourth-consecutive-year/277-b51d577b-5be7-4aeb-8804-a431f603699f BOTTOM LINE: As of the latest data (through July 2026), BOI is about 1% ahead of 2025, which sets up a narrow but positive cushion. Aug–Dec 2026 can fall about 1.3% below Aug–Dec 2025 before the total drops under the threshold. Growth has slowed from 5–8% in 2025, so the margin is thin and the August–September data are the key unknowns. NOT FOUND: BOI monthly totals for August and September 2026. The Sept. commission report (Sept. 2) is the latest passenger data found, and I could not open the airport's statistics page. I also found no October 2026 commission update and no reports of major capacity cuts or disruptions in the last 14 days.

- [2026-01 release] BOI's 2025 total was 5,229,399 passengers, up from 4,990,885 in 2024. That is the strike for this question, so the question asks whether 2026 beats 2025 by even one passenger. The airport called 2025 the fourth consecutive record year. https://www.cityofboise.org/news/airport/2026/january/new-milestone-for-passenger-traffic-just-in-time-for-boi-100 - [2025-02 release] Annual history: 4,752,757 (2023) to 4,990,885 (2024), a rise of about 238k or 5%. 2025 added another 238,514, also about 5%. 2022 was about 4.5M, a record that beat 2019 by 9%. 2021 was about 3.6M and 2020 fell 52%. Growth has been positive every year since the 2020 COVID drop. https://www.iflyboise.com/press-room/media-center/2025/february/new-record-for-passenger-traffic-at-boi/ and https://idahobusinessreview.com/2026/05/08/boise-airport-100-years-5-million-passengers/ - [2026-05-08] Idaho Business Review reports January 2026 at 382,191 passengers versus 380,739 in January 2025, about +0.4%. An airport communications manager said 2026 was "trending ahead of last year's pace" but cautioned it was early and mentioned global conditions. This is the only airport-reported 2026 monthly figure I found. https://idahobusinessreview.com/2026/05/08/boise-airport-100-years-5-million-passengers/ - [2026-10-14] BTS (US DOT) data for scheduled US-carrier traffic at BOI, 12 months ending July 2026, shows arrivals of 2,589k versus 2,553k a year earlier, up 1.4%. The 12-month window mixes Aug–Dec 2025 with Jan–Jul 2026. Growth has clearly slowed from about 5% to the low single digits, but it was still positive through July. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?20=E&Nv42146=ObV&Nv42146_anzr=O1v5r%2C+VQ%3A+O1v5r+Nv4+gr4zv0ny&pn44vr4=SNPgf - [2026-10-14] In the same BTS table, Southwest carried 1,335k passengers in the 12 months to July 2026 versus 1,345k a year earlier. SkyWest fell to 1,245k from 1,277k. "Other" carriers rose to 2,606k from 2,524k. Mainline and low-cost additions are offsetting some declines. The BTS tables are scheduled-service enplanement-based and are not the airport's own total-passenger figure. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?20=E&Nv42146=ObV&Nv42146_anzr=O1v5r%2C+VQ%3A+O1v5r+Nv4+gr4zv0ny&pn44vr4=SNPgf - [2025-10-01] Comparison point: through August 2025, year-to-date total passengers were 3,457,775, up 6% from 3,251,954 in 2024. Mid-2025 growth was therefore well above the full-year 5%. This sets a tougher comparison base for summer and fall 2026. The record month was July 2025 at 487,225. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2309/oct-airport-commission.pdf - [2026-01/2026-04] Capacity news for 2026: Alaska added daily Ontario, CA service in January and seasonal Anchorage service from June 10. American and Frontier returned in May 2025, so they add year-over-year capacity only in January–April 2026. Eight airlines serve 27 nonstop destinations. https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/boise-airport-sets-new-traffic-record-fourth-consecutive-year/277-b51d577b-5be7-4aeb-8804-a431f603699f and https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/boise-airport-airlines-rated-highly-110000614.html - [2026-07-15] Runway reconstruction was under way in 2026, with FAA grants of $74M. The Concourse A expansion is not due to open until about 2030. Gate capacity is therefore constrained, and I found no reports of 2026 disruption to passenger counts. https://boisedev.com/news/2026/07/13/boise-airport-using-federal-grant-money-to-rebuild-runway-increase-capacity-for-early-morning-flights/ - [2026-09 master plan forecast, PDF snippet] The Master Plan forecast document estimated 7.8% growth for 2025. 2025 actual was about 4.8%, so the forecast overshot. I could not read the 2026 forecast number in the snippet. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2576/boi-mp-forecast-final-september-2026.pdf - [2026-03-16] Substack and press commentary describes 2026 as continuing strong growth, but it gives no 2026 year-to-date totals. https://srobadelic.substack.com/p/boises-airport-is-about-to-get-a BOTTOM LINE: As a reference class, BOI has posted four straight annual records (2022–2025) and has grown nearly every year apart from the 2020 COVID drop. The 2026 beat on the 5,229,399 strike therefore starts as the base-rate default. The evidence is thinner and weaker than in prior years: growth has slowed to roughly 0–1.5% (January +0.4%, BTS 12 months to July +1.4%), so the margin over the strike is small. The 2026 outcome is also unconfirmed because I found no airport-reported monthly figures after January. NOT FOUND: Airport-reported Feb–Sep 2026 monthly or year-to-date totals. The iflyboise statistics page could not be fetched, and no 2026 commission report with year-to-date figures came up. Also not found: any third-party forecast for BOI's full-year 2026 total, the 2026 forecast value in the Master Plan PDF, and sibling-strike market data.

YES means: Boise Airport reports a final calendar-year 2026 "Total Passengers" figure above 5,229,399, i.e. 2026 beats the 2025 record by at least one passenger. - [2026-10-17] **The path to YES is a simple hold-the-lead scenario.** Through July 2026, BOI was 29,102 passengers ahead of 2025 (3,027,949 vs 2,998,847, from the Sept 2 commission report). To resolve YES, Aug–Dec 2026 only has to avoid falling more than 29,102 behind 2025. That is about 1.3% of the roughly 2.23M passengers flown in that stretch. Prerequisites: no sustained year-on-year decline, and the airport's published 2026 total uses the same basis as its 2025 total. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf - [2025-10-01] **The comparison base for August is known.** The Oct 2025 commission report puts 2025 YTD through August at 3,457,775. Subtracting the 2,998,847 through July leaves 458,928 for August 2025. Sept–Dec 2025 therefore totals 1,771,624 (5,229,399 minus 3,457,775). The Aug 2025 enplanement growth was only about 3%, a softer comparison than the 8% YTD growth seen mid-2025. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2309/oct-airport-commission.pdf - [2026-09-02] **The most recent month on record is still growing.** July 2026 enplanements were 246,152 vs 244,177 (+0.8%). The +1% YTD gap held through the peak summer month, in the face of a runway reconstruction phase. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf - [2026-10-17] **Official airport pages confirm winter capacity is being added.** The airport's nonstop page lists 30 destinations, including Alaska seasonal service to Santa Rosa from Nov. 2, 2026, and to Honolulu from Dec. 17, 2026. Southwest's Nashville (June 2027) and LAX (March 2027) entries are 2027 additions and don't help 2026. Alaska's Santa Rosa flights use 76-seat E175s, up to daily (BoiseDev, 2026-05-08). Honolulu is daily through Mar 21 (Idaho State Journal, 2026-07-15). These are small but net-additive seats for Nov–Dec. https://www.iflyboise.com/travel-planner/nonstop-destinations/ ; https://boisedev.com/news/2026/05/08/alaska-boise-sonoma/ ; https://www.idahostatejournal.com/news/local/boise-says-aloha-to-new-direct-flight/article_97fed10d-901a-5359-86ac-6db7ebcdd365.html - [2026-10-17] **Winter 2025–26 seat history favors a flat-to-up Q4.** The Santa Rosa and Honolulu routes were not flown in late 2025. Sept 2026 master plan text notes Avelo ceased operations at BOI in April 2025. That removal is already in the 2025 base for Aug–Dec, so it is not a new drag on the comparison. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2576/boi-mp-forecast-final-september-2026.pdf - [2026-09] **The airport's own planners expect long-run growth.** The Master Plan forecast (Sept 2026) projects 3.1% annual enplanement growth over 20 years. It describes 2024 at nearly 2.5M enplanements and 2025 at nearly 2.6M, and notes growth every year since 2012 except 2020. A drop below 2025 would be a rare event in that record. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2576/boi-mp-forecast-final-september-2026.pdf - [2026-10-14] **Federal data agrees that growth is positive.** BTS, as of 10/14/2026, shows BOI scheduled enplanements up 1.4% for Aug 2025–Jul 2026. Those twelve months include the Aug–Dec 2025 base, so the window already contains part of the comparison period, and the figure is still positive. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?20=E&Nv42146=ObV&Nv42146_anzr=O1v5r%2C+VQ%3A+O1v5r+Nv4+gr4zv0ny&pn44vr4=SNPgf - [2026-01-23] **The airport's framing treats 2026 growth as the default.** The airport calls 2025 the fourth straight record year. The communications manager (reported 2026-05-08) said 2026 was running ahead of 2025's pace. https://www.cityofboise.org/news/airport/2026/january/new-milestone-for-passenger-traffic-just-in-time-for-boi-100 ; https://idahobusinessreview.com/2026/05/08/boise-airport-100-years-5-million-passengers/ - [2026-10-17] **Timing works for a YES resolution.** Monthly stats come about 30 days after month-end, so the December figure is due around late January 2027, ahead of the Feb 19 close. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is a cushion of about 29k passengers, or 1.3% of Aug–Dec volume. Two positives support it: the lead survived peak July, and new Alaska winter routes (Santa Rosa, Honolulu) start in Nov–Dec. The lead is small, so it fails only if Aug–Dec falls clearly below 2025. NOT FOUND: BOI's August or September 2026 monthly totals, and any October 2026 commission report. Also not found: the 2026 forecast value inside the Master Plan PDF (the fetch truncated the middle of the document), and any evidence of a Q4 2026 capacity cut.

YES means: Boise Airport's reported calendar-year 2026 total passengers, including the December 2026 figure, exceeds 5,229,399, i.e. beats 2025 by at least one passenger. - [2026-09-02] The commission report's own figures give a thin cushion. YTD through July 2026 was 3,027,949 against 2,998,847, a lead of only 29,102 passengers (0.97%). That lead is about 0.56% of the 2025 annual total, and January alone supplied about 1,450 of it. Against the 2025 strike, Aug–Dec 2026 can run no more than about 1.3% below Aug–Dec 2025. The 2026 lead is therefore small and rests on a few months. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf (fetched) - [2026-09-02] July's "record" was marginal. Enplanements were 246,152 against 244,177, up about 0.8%. That is below the YTD rate of about 1%, so the monthly trend was flat to softer even in the peak month. The airport's own wording is "nearly 1%". The July figure is enplanements only, not total passengers. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf (fetched) - [2026-09-02] The airport's finances do not show volume growth. Total operating revenue was +0% (FY26 YTD $54.80M against $54.67M). Signatory landing fees were down 47% and landings/freight were down 43%. Those two lines point to fewer or lighter aircraft movements. Parking (+14%) and terminal rent (+32%) are mostly rate and lease effects. This is consistent with flat capacity and no volume acceleration. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf (fetched) - [2026-09-02] Airfield disruption is possible in Aug–Dec. Phase 3 of the runway 10L-28R reconstruction had all asphalt removed and Taxiway E closed. The Sept. 9 parking-exit construction cut entry lanes to one. Neither is a documented passenger loss, but both add friction in a year with only a ~1% cushion. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2563/sept-airport-commission.pdf (fetched) - [2026-09-17] A disabled floatplane closed the runway briefly on Sept. 17 (Cessna 180 landing-gear issue, around 2:30 p.m.). Arrivals diverted, including to Twin Falls. This was a one-off with a trivial passenger effect, but it shows operational fragility on a single-runway day while the other runway is under reconstruction. https://www.thetraveler.org/boise-airport-runway-reopens-after-landing-gear-issue-disrupts-flights/ (search result, not fetched) - [2026-09-25] ACI World says global traffic grew only 0.6% in H1 2026, "a marked slowdown." North America was flat in H1 2026 after a 0.7% decline in 2025. BOI's ~1% is only slightly above a flat continental trend, so it has little headroom against any demand shock. ACI cites the Iran war, airspace disruption and rising costs. https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airports-networks/aci-world-air-passenger-traffic-growth-slowing-considerably (fetched) - [2026-09/10] Regional and West Coast comparables are weak. California's top-10 airports were down 2% in August 2026 (Oakland −15.6%, San Jose −11.2%). Las Vegas was down 6.7% in H1 2026 (June −9.3%) after Spirit shut down. Many BOI flights run to California and Las Vegas, so softness at the other end of those routes can drag BOI's counts. https://industry.visitcalifornia.com/research/reports/passenger-traffic and https://www.fox5vegas.com/2026/07/30/harry-reid-airport-passenger-traffic-down-67-percent-mid-year-mark/ (search snippets, not fetched) - [2026-09 Master Plan] The airport's consultant overshot 2025 (forecast 7.8%, actual about 4.8%) and projects only 3.1% annual enplanement growth over 20 years. The planning narrative is for modest growth, and actual 2026 growth is far below even that. https://www.iflyboise.com/media/2576/boi-mp-forecast-final-september-2026.pdf (search snippet) - [2026-10-14] BTS shows the main carriers flat to down. In the 12 months to July 2026, Southwest was at 1,335k against 1,345k and SkyWest at 1,245k against 1,277k. Growth came from "Other" carriers. A 1.4% BTS increase includes Aug–Dec 2025 at the high base. If the Aug–Dec 2025 base was strong, the post-July run rate is below the 12-month figure. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?20=E&Nv42146=ObV&Nv42146_anzr=O1v5r%2C+VQ%3A+O1v5r+Nv4+gr4zv0ny&pn44vr4=SNPgf (fetched via search result) - [2026-10-17] Resolution mechanics favour the status quo in one respect only. The outcome depends on a single airport-published December YTD figure, expected around late January 2027, with the market closing 2027-02-19. A publication delay of more than about three weeks past the usual ~30 days, or a revised or restated total, would leave the question unresolved or open to dispute. The strike is the exact 2025 figure, with no margin of rounding. A tie or a restatement of 2025 is a risk only if the airport revises prior-year data. - [2025-11 comp] The Q4 2025 comparison base was depressed by the government shutdown, which ran roughly Oct 1–Nov 12. FAA-ordered cuts were scheduled from Nov. 7, and BOI had 22 cancellations over the Nov. 8–10 weekend. This eases the NO case's Q4 comp. It cuts against NO, and it should be weighed against the 2025 Aug–Oct base that grew 6–8%. https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/boi-reports-normal-operations-faa-service-cuts/277-4b9dee1d-9f52-46e0-9d09-ffb996cd1e76 (search result) BOTTOM LINE: The best NO case is a ~29k-passenger (≈1%) cushion that is shrinking, since July was +0.8%. Against it stand a weak regional and continental demand backdrop, flat airport revenue, runway work, and a high Aug–Oct 2025 base, so a ~1.3% Aug–Dec shortfall is plausible but not shown by any data I found. Nothing I found shows an actual post-July decline, so NO needs a deterioration that is not yet evidenced. NOT FOUND: BOI August or September 2026 monthly or YTD totals; an October 2026 commission report; any Aug–Dec 2025 monthly breakdown beyond the earlier through-August comparison; any announced BOI capacity cuts for Q4 2026; any airport statement on the date the December 2026 figure will be published.