Will alpine skier visits for the 2026–27 ski season be above 2,283,539 visits?

- [2026-06-05] Ski NH's official recap gives the 2025/26 alpine total as 2,283,539 skier visits. That is up 5% year over year and the fourth-best season in 20 years, behind 2010/11, 2000/01 and 2007/08. The question's threshold is this figure, so it needs a 2026-27 total that beats the 2025/26 total. https://www.skinh.com/news/ski-nh-reports-2025-26-as-fourth-best-alpine-season-in-nh-in-two-decades - [2026-06-05] Ski NH credited early-season snowfall and favorable snowmaking temperatures for the 2025/26 result. Tubing was reported separately at 125,314 visits, and that figure does not count toward this market. The recap says nothing about a revision to the 2025/26 number. https://www.skinh.com/news/ski-nh-reports-2025-26-as-fourth-best-alpine-season-in-nh-in-two-decades - [2025 recap, published in 2025] The prior-year baseline was 2,221,206 alpine visits for 2024-25, up 3% and 7% above the 10-year average. The 2025/26 total (2,283,539) is about 2.8% above that figure. https://www.visitwhitemountains.com/articles/post/ski-nh-reports-growth-in-skier-visits-in-2025-26-ski-season/ - [2026-10-15] NOAA's winter outlook, released this week, favors above-normal temperatures (50–60% odds) for NH, VT, ME and upstate NY. It leans slightly wet for New England. It is driven by a very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 at +2.4°C and 80% odds the event stays at least strong through Jan–Mar 2027. NOAA notes it does not forecast snowfall. The next update is Nov 19. https://snowbrains.com/noaa-winter-outlook-2026-27/ - [2026-09-28] The September update from the same outlet gave New England 50–60%+ odds of above-normal temperatures through the core winter months, with precipitation at equal chances. It described the East as "warm, variable, elevation-dependent." https://snowbrains.com/el-nino-2026-27-ski-forecast/ - [2026-10-16] Severe Weather Europe's October snowfall model update shows northern New England with below-normal snowfall. It puts the White Mountains about 4–5 inches below normal. This is a model product, not an official forecast. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-snow-forecast-october-update-snowfall-explorer-super-el-nino-ski-season-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ - [2026-09-29 (approx.)] Another outlet, Unofficial Networks, rates New Hampshire snowfall "Above" for 2026-27. Almanac-type forecasts are mixed: the Farmers' Almanac favors snowier-than-normal conditions from central New England through the Appalachians, and the Old Farmer's Almanac splits New England. Forecast sources conflict, and none is authoritative. https://unofficialnetworks.com/winter-2026-snowfall-prediction/ - [2026-09-28] Vail Resorts reported Epic pass units down about 12% as of Sept 18, with days sold down 10% and dollars down 6%. Vail blames the historically poor western winter and delayed purchases. NH's Epic resorts (Attitash, Wildcat, Crotched, Mount Sunapee) are part of this system, but the drop is concentrated in western feeder markets. No NH-specific pass-sales data was found. https://townlift.com/2026/09/epic-pass-product-sales-fall-12-as-vail-resorts-looks-for-rebound-after-historic-low-snow-winter/ - [2026-10-17] No NH ski areas have opened for 2026-27 yet. Projected openings (OnTheSnow, not official) start with Bretton Woods on Nov 14 and Black Mountain on Nov 15, then Loon on Nov 20, Cannon on Nov 27 and most others from Dec 2 to Dec 5. Ski NH has not published 2026-27 visit data. https://www.onthesnow.com/new-hampshire/projected-openings - [2026-05-17 to 2026-09-05] Capital investments are modest. Gunstock is spending $4.5M this offseason and Pats Peak is expanding snowmaking, per Ski NH's industry news page. The industry site NewEnglandSkiIndustry reports that 2026 is the quietest lift-install season in history, with two new chairlifts expected. The Loon Black Ridge expansion is for 2027-28, and Cannon's tramway renovation cost has risen to $45M. https://newenglandskihistory.com/NewHampshire/ - [2026-06-05] Resolution timing: Ski NH published the 2025-26 recap on June 5, 2026 and the 2024-25 recap on June 11, 2025. The 2026-27 recap would therefore be expected around early-to-mid June 2027, before the June 30, 2027 close. The 2025-26 recap came at the annual meeting (Jun 1–2, 2026). https://www.skinh.com/media/industry-news - [2026-06-08] Context on the baseline: 2025-26 was NH's busiest season since 2011 and was described as cold and snowy with a "backyard effect." The threshold therefore sits at a high-water mark, and exceeding it requires another top-tier year. https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026-06-08/new-hampshire-best-ski-season-winter-sports-nh BOTTOM LINE: The threshold equals the 2025/26 total, which was the best result in 15 years, so a Yes needs another near-record season. Early outlooks tilt warm for northern New England and are mixed on snow, and no 2026-27 visit data exists yet. Nothing resolves before the Ski NH recap, expected around June 2027. NOT FOUND: Any 2026-27 NH visit data, since the season hasn't started. NH-specific pass-sales figures for 2026-27. An official Ski NH opening-date list. Any revision to the 2025/26 total. A confirmed date for the 2026-27 recap.

- [2026-06-05] Ski NH's official recap reports 2,283,539 alpine skier visits for 2025/26, up 5% year over year. It ranks fourth in 20 years, behind only 2010/11, 2000/01 and 2007/08. The threshold is exactly this figure, so the question asks whether 2026–27 will beat the fourth-best season in 20 years. https://www.skinh.com/news/ski-nh-reports-2025-26-as-fourth-best-alpine-season-in-nh-in-two-decades - [2025-06-10] 2024–25 alpine visits were an estimated 2,221,206, up 3% year over year and 7% above the 10-year average. Combined alpine, Nordic and tubing visits were 2,424,587. The 2025/26 figure is about 2.8% above this. https://www.visitwhitemountains.com/articles/post/ski-nh-reports-growth-in-skier-visits-in-2025-26-ski-season/ - [2024-06-08] 2023–24 alpine visits were an estimated 2,166,857, down 4% from 2022–23 (about 2.2M). That season ranked 14th in 40 years of data and was 4% above the 10-year average. The president said 2022–23 had been the ninth best on record. https://www.skinh.com/news/2023-24-season-wrap-up - Year-over-year path of alpine visits: 2022/23 about +13% (per a Ski NH headline), then about 2.2M, 2.17M, 2.22M and 2.28M. Only three seasons in 20 years exceeded 2.28M, all in 2000–2011. 2025/26 is the first season above that level in 15 years. https://www.skinh.com/media/industry-news and https://www.saminfo.com/faces-and-places/new-hampshire-ski-areas-report-2025-26-as-fourth-best-alpine-season-in-two-decades - [2026-06-09] The 2025/26 total excludes Black Mountain, which is no longer a Ski NH member. Ski NH left Black's earlier data out of the comparisons. Membership changes could therefore shift the base. https://unofficialnetworks.com/2026/06/09/new-hampshire-ski-metrics/ - [2026-06-08] Keeler credited a cold, snowy winter and "the backyard effect." NHPR called it the busiest season since 2011. https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026-06-08/new-hampshire-best-ski-season-winter-sports-nh - [2026-06-06] Powder reports that skier visits fell about 9% nationwide in 2025–26, with the West weak and the East strong. Regional divergence was large. https://www.powder.com/news/new-hampshire-fourth-busiest-ski-season-decades - [2026-10-15] NOAA's outlook, issued 15 Oct, shows 50–60% odds of above-normal temperatures for New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine in DJF. New England leans slightly wet. A very strong El Niño is ongoing, with a Niño 3.4 reading of +2.4°C. The outlook gives temperature and precipitation odds, not snowfall, and NOAA says a stable polar vortex favors mild northern and eastern air. This is a modestly negative signal for NH visits. https://snowbrains.com/noaa-winter-outlook-2026-27/ - [2026-07-21] An outlook piece says NOAA gave an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño, in contrast to the weak La Niña of 2025–26. It says northern NH and VT may hold snow best, and notes that blocking and the NAO can override the seasonal signal for weeks. https://unofficialnetworks.com/2026/07/21/winter-weather-outlook-for-2026-2027-compared-to-last-winter/ - Reference-class timing: Ski NH has released recaps in early June each year (2024-06-05/08, 2025-06-10/11, 2026-06-05). That is before the 2027-06-30 close, so a result is expected in time. Resolution depends on Ski NH reporting the figure as "above 2,283,539". A prior-year number could be restated in the next release, but the threshold is fixed. - Mean reversion: after a +5% year at roughly the 4th-best level in 20 years, the base rate favors a smaller number the next season unless snow and cold are again exceptional. Over 2022–26 the year-over-year changes were +13%, −4%, +3% and +5%. That is 3 up and 1 down, and none of the seasons was above 2.28M until 2025/26. Skier visits are weather-driven, and the 10-year average is roughly 2.07–2.08M (implied by the "7% above" figure). 2026–27 would need to exceed 2025/26 by any margin. - I found no published forecast, poll or expert estimate for NH 2026–27 visits. Early pass-sales or investment signals are not covered here. BOTTOM LINE: Outside view: 2,283,539 is a near-record level, hit in only 3 of the last ~20 seasons and set by an unusually cold, snowy winter. Mean reversion and NOAA's warm-lean outlook for NH point somewhat below 50% for beating it. Offsetting factors are the recent upward trend, pass and tubing growth, and resort investment. NOT FOUND: Any existing forecast or market for NH 2026–27 visits other than this contract; Ski NH's full 20-year annual series; Epic/Ikon pass-sales trends specific to NH for 2026–27; and the 2022/23 exact total (only "+13%" in a headline).

YES means: Ski NH's official 2026–27 statewide alpine skier visit total is above 2,283,539. This is the 2025/26 figure, so 2026–27 would have to beat last season. The recap is expected around early-to-mid June 2027, before the June 30, 2027 close. - [2026-06-05] The Ski NH recap names the drivers of 2025/26 as early snowfall, good snowmaking temperatures, and member investment in snowmaking, grooming, lifts and amenities. Only the first two are weather-dependent. The investment effect is structural and carries into 2026–27. The recap also reports tubing at +21%, which does not count toward this market. https://www.skinh.com/news/ski-nh-reports-2025-26-as-fourth-best-alpine-season-in-nh-in-two-decades - [2026-10-15] YES path, step 1 (the biggest prerequisite): NOAA's Gottschalck says snowpack should be below normal for interior New England. He also says the El Niño storm track may keep systems off the coast at times. The same article quotes him saying "there may be times when the northern jet stream can present enough cold air" for more snow than rain. The Globe's Mahan says the best chance of near-normal snow is in the higher White Mountains elevations. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/15/metro/winter-forecast-new-england-noaa-el-nino/ - [2026-10-15] The Globe notes that the wetter Northeast outlook "could mean more snow-making" for NH. Snowmaking-dependent skiing needs cold windows, not natural snow. Ski NH credited the same factor last year. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/15/metro/winter-forecast-new-england-noaa-el-nino/ - [2026-10-15] Both almanacs lean differently from NOAA. The Globe says the Old Farmer's Almanac shows more snow and colder conditions in portions of central New England. The Globe adds that almanac accuracy is "half right, at best." This is a weak source, but not unanimous. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/15/metro/winter-forecast-new-england-noaa-el-nino/ - [2026-08-29] Weather.com's retrospective on the 2023–24 strong El Niño: NH had its warmest winter on record, with frequent thaws and rain. Per the colleagues' 2024-06-08 figure, that season still drew about 2.17M alpine visits, only about 4% below 2022–23. A warm winter therefore cut visits modestly rather than catastrophically, and a smaller drop needs less offsetting. https://weather.com/2026/08/29/sports-recreation/ski/el-nino-ski-season-snowfall-forecast - [2026-09-04] YES path, step 2: capacity and snowmaking upgrades are what could let NH beat the weather. Loon is adding snowmaking in East Basin and North Peak, with new Klik guns, to "make snow more efficiently during cold-weather windows." Wildcat and Attitash are upgrading snowmaking, per Ski NH industry news. Pats Peak is building a 21-million-gallon reservoir, which Ski NH says halves full-mountain opening time. Gunstock is spending $1.4M of its $4.5M on snowmaking. https://skiracing.com/whats-new-on-ikon-pass-for-winter-2026-27-destinations-lifts-snowmaking-and-more/ and https://www.skinh.com/media/industry-news - [2026-08] Savage Mountain Collective says better snowmaking "gives a mountain a fighting chance" when December is poor. It names Pats Peak as an example of a small Eastern mountain building snowmaking capacity. https://savagemountaincollective.substack.com/p/the-202627-ski-season-is-starting - [2026-10-17] Pass demand is a floor for visits. Gunstock says Winter Prime passes "typically sell out before opening day," and Black Mountain says its passes "will fully sell out." Cannon's pass tiers and the White Mountain Super Pass are priced with early-bird deadlines from Oct 31 to Nov 26. Passholders ski regardless of weather and drive repeat visits. https://www.skinh.com/news/gunstock-launches-2026-2027-spring-season-pass-sale and https://www.gunstock.com/winter/season-pass/ - [2026-10-09] Ikon is cutting into its renewal pipeline with a fully refundable pass option through Jan 15, 2027, and Epic is promoting a 20% young-adult discount. Mount Sunapee, an Epic resort, advertises that discount. These are demand levers aimed at weak-snow worries, but they are not NH-specific volume data. https://www.epicorikon.com/news/ikon-pass-prices-increase-october-2026 and https://www.mountsunapee.com/ - [2026-06-12] Even NOAA-sourced commentary says the New England mountains "should still see a decent thumping of snow," though probably not above-average totals. A near-average year with high holiday-week weather luck could still hold the total near 2.28M. This margin is thin. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/06/12/metro/el-nino-weather-impacts-new-england/ - [2026-06-05] The 2025/26 figure was set with no mention of a prior-year restatement and with Black Mountain excluded from the member count. Black Mountain is now outside Ski NH, so the member base is unlikely to shrink further. The base is a fixed, narrower set, so only organic visitation matters. https://www.skinh.com/news/ski-nh-reports-2025-26-as-fourth-best-alpine-season-in-nh-in-two-decades BOTTOM LINE: The most likely YES path needs a near-normal winter in the White Mountains. That means enough cold windows in November to January, with the upgraded snowmaking at Loon, Wildcat, Attitash, Pats Peak and Gunstock turning them into skiable terrain. It also needs strong holiday weeks and sold-out pass bases. This is the weakest of the sides, because NOAA's 15 Oct outlook and the 2015–16 analogue both point to below-normal snow. NOT FOUND: Any NH-specific 2026–27 pass-sales total. Any Ski NH preseason forecast. Any official statement that member snowmaking upgrades lift capacity. Any evidence of a restated 2025/26 total.

YES means: Ski NH reports a statewide alpine skier-visit total for 2026–27 above 2,283,539, the 2025–26 figure. Nordic and tubing visits are excluded. - [2026-10-15] Boston Globe's coverage of NOAA's outlook quotes NOAA's Jon Gottschalck: "Snowpack should be less than normal across the interior Northeast and New England". NOAA expects a warmer, wetter winter with more rain, ice and slush. Its scientists say a westerly QBO plus strong El Niño means fewer Arctic outbreaks. The Globe's own forecaster says the White Mountains' higher elevations have the best chance at near-normal snow but will "likely wind up below average". He expects the winter to mirror 2015-16. This goes beyond the Oct 15 temperature odds already in the earlier reports because it covers snowpack and cold-air frequency, and snowmaking needs cold air. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/15/metro/winter-forecast-new-england-noaa-el-nino/ - [2026-08-04] Boston Globe's August piece says El Niño winters have been "rather dismal" for New England snowfall. It expects more mixed precipitation and rapid thaws in the mountains. It adds that the odds worsen if this becomes the strongest El Niño on record. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/08/04/metro/new-england-winter-el-nino/impacts/ - [2015-16 analogue, SAM article, published May 2016] The last super El Niño brought the East one of its worst-ever seasons. In northern New England, operating days fell by a third or more at most resorts. Ski NH's Keeler said closures going into Christmas drag visits down. Fetching this page returned 403, so this rests on the search snippet. https://www.saminfo.com/an-el-nino-year/ - [2026-02 to 2026-10, Compass Vermont] Vermont visits fell 32% in 2015-16, from 4.7M to 3.2M. Vermont shares NH's weather regime, so a similar scale of drop in NH would be well below 2.28M. This piece also notes Canadian visitors, up to 50% of traffic at some northern resorts, are suppressed by trade tensions. https://www.compassvermont.com/p/super-el-nino-buzz-is-heating-up - [2015-12-11, Boston Globe] There is a counter-point to the El Niño case: NSAA data were "inconclusive" on strong El Niño effects. The 1997-98 New England total was only modestly below the prior near-record. Moderate El Niño winters 2006-07 and 2009-10 had late-season blockbuster storms. The El Niño signal is therefore probabilistic, but this year's strength and NOAA's explicit snowpack call tilt it toward NO. https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2015/12/11/nino-warming-breezes-give-ski-industry-blues/FUQXYCfJWQ1isfhdVuysgJ/story.html - [2023-06-13, Ski NH] Ski NH itself says weather is "the single biggest factor" on visitation. The 2022/23 total was 2,263,776, the ninth-best ever and +13% on 1,997,185. That total sits just below the threshold and is the nearest prior season to it. Before 2025/26 no season in the recent series had cleared 2.28M, so the threshold is a ceiling reached once in 15 years. https://www.skinh.com/news/alpine-skier-visits-up-in-2022-23 - [2026-06-06, Powder / Unofficial Networks] Black Mountain is not a Ski NH member. It was bought by Indy Pass in 2024 and ran its longest-ever season in 2025-26. Its visits are not in Ski NH's total, so any shift of skiers to Black, or a change in membership, does not help YES. Membership changes cannot be ruled out. https://www.powder.com/news/new-hampshire-fourth-busiest-ski-season-decades - [2026-10] Pass-pricing pages show 2026/27 prices in NH (Cannon, Gunstock, Waterville) with tiered increases at Nov 1. Gunstock caps pass and day-ticket sales. Capacity limits mean a strong season cannot inflate visits much at limited-capacity areas, which pushes the upside tail down. A new Ski NH Gold Pass is only a small pilot. https://www.gunstock.com/winter/season-pass/ - [2026-06-05] Ski NH's own explanation for 2025/26 was early snowfall plus snowmaking-friendly cold in peak periods. A warm early winter would remove both. The Christmas-to-New Year's week can be about 20% of annual revenue (Compass Vermont), and super El Niño's warm December peak (3.7–4°C per the Aug 4 Globe) lands directly on it. https://www.skinh.com/news/ski-nh-reports-2025-26-as-fourth-best-alpine-season-in-nh-in-two-decades - [2026-10-17] Status quo and mean reversion: the question needs any increase over a +5% year that was the best since 2011. Without a rare repeat, NO holds by default. Resolution also needs Ski NH to publish in time. A late or unpublished figure would not produce YES, since the rules require a report that the total is above the threshold. I could not confirm a published date, though past recaps came in early June. BOTTOM LINE: The threshold is a 15-year high set in a cold, snowy winter. NOAA now explicitly forecasts below-normal snowpack for the interior Northeast in a record-strength El Niño, and the 2015-16 analogue saw a 32% Vermont drop. A YES needs a rare repeat despite both signals, but the El Niño link to visits is probabilistic. NOT FOUND: Any 2026-27 NH visit data. NH-specific 2026-27 pass-sales figures. NH's 2015-16 total, which I did not retrieve (only Vermont's drop). A confirmed 2027 recap date. Any restatement of the 2025/26 total. I also could not open the SAM article in full (403).