Iran leadership change by December 31?

- [2026-03-08] Iran's Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei the third Supreme Leader, about a week after his father was killed in a US-Israeli strike on 2026-02-28. The IRGC and armed forces pledged backing. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-names-khameneis-son-as-new-supreme-leader-after-fathers-killing-2 - [2026-03 to 2026-10] He has made no verified public appearance since his selection. His record is more than 25 written messages read out by others. IranWire (2026-10-05) says no photo or video evidence of any appearance has been made public. https://iranwire.com/en/features/158466-the-absent-leader-how-iran-is-constructing-the-image-of-mojtaba-khamenei/ - [2026-08-09] Mehr published an undated 12-second clip, billed as the first video of him as leader. It did not say when or where it was filmed. Reports say he was injured on 02-28. https://www.neherald.com/world/iran-releases-new-video-of-mojtaba-khamenei-amid-health-speculation - [2026-08-11] President Pezeshkian said Khamenei is in "perfect health" after a "seven-hour" meeting with him. Xinhua still noted he has not appeared in public. https://bernama.com/en/news.php?id=2592936 - [2026-10-01 to 2026-10-05] A cleric claimed Khamenei visited a Tehran rally "for the second time" two nights before 10-01. His father-in-law, Haddad-Adel, said he suffered only minor leg bruising. IranWire notes no footage exists and official accounts of the 02-28 strike conflict. Reports say three hospitals that treated him were hit. https://iranwire.com/en/features/158466-the-absent-leader-how-iran-is-constructing-the-image-of-mojtaba-khamenei/ - [2026-10-09] Asharq Al-Awsat sources (via UA.News) say IRGC influence over him may exceed his influence over it. This is a report, not confirmed fact. https://ua.news/en/world/novim-verkhovnim-liderom-iranu-obrali-modzhtabu-khameneyi-asharq-al-awsat - [2026-10-08] Trump promised no US attack on Iran before the 11-03 midterms. The blockade stays in force. The Atlantic had reported the Pentagon was preparing strike options. Trump has threatened renewed strikes after the midterms. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-nuclear-donald-trump-vance-rubio-strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-10-08] Talks continue only through intermediaries on Iran's "seven-day plan". Pezeshkian called negotiations "meaningless" and Putin met him. Treasury sanctioned 17 more "shadow fleet" tankers. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-nuclear-donald-trump-vance-rubio-strait-of-hormuz/ - [2026-10-04] France 24: peace talks are stalled, and Washington has scaled back attacks in favour of economic pressure. https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20261004-iran-us-military-middle-east-war-peace-talks - [2026-10-12] CBS: Trump has publicly rejected Iran's offer, but mediated negotiations continue. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-saudi-arabia-houthi/ - [2026-08-10] Ali Abdollahi became Chief of the General Staff, which shows the state apparatus is functioning under Khamenei's nominal authority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Abdollahi - [2026-10-17] Wikipedia and Britannica still list Khamenei as incumbent. Britannica says he is "believed to be alive" and has issued written directives. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mojtaba-Khamenei BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-17 there is no credible report of removal, detention, resignation or death. Consensus sources still treat him as leader, but his seven-month invisibility and the IRGC's apparent dominance leave "prevented from acting" open to dispute. The main near-term risks are renewed US strikes after the 11-03 midterms and a revelation about his health. NOT FOUND: Any report from the last 7 days of a leadership change, Assembly of Experts action, or a verifiable live appearance. Any scheduled event before 12-31 that bears directly on his tenure, other than the post-midterm strike threat.

- [2026-03-08] The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei third Supreme Leader. His father was killed on 28 Feb in US-Israeli strikes. Trump said he "is not going to last long" without US approval. Israel threatened to target any successor. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-rcna261645 - [2026-03-12] His first statement was read out by a TV anchor, not delivered by him. He has not appeared in public since. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/irans-mojtaba-khamenei-issues-first-statement-as-supreme-leader-amid-war - [2026-05-09] The leader's protocol chief said he was only marginally injured and in "complete health". Rumours about his health, and even about whether he is alive, continued. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/05/09/conflicting-reports-on-mojtaba-khamenei-s-health-and-role-in-governance - [2026-08-09] Mehr released an undated 12-second clip. Israeli media, including the Jerusalem Post, claimed he was critically ill and could die within days. There was no independent confirmation, and the claim has not come true in the two months since. https://www.deccanchronicle.com/amp/world/mojtaba-khamenei-appears-in-undated-video-amid-health-speculation-1977797 - [2026-08-30] A Polymarket "public appearance by…" market had about $7M traded. It described him as having had no verified photo, video or live appearance in six months. At that date its "December 31" outcome was priced at 23%. This is a sibling market, and the price is stale. https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by - [2026-09-24] President Pezeshkian said he met the leader twice, including a seven-hour session. He called him "completely healthy", despite reports he could be deceased or brain-dead. The claim is unverified. https://thehill.com/policy/international/6110716-masoud-pezeshkian-claims-khamenei-healthy/ - [2026-09-27] He was absent from his father's July funeral. He is reported to have been injured, possibly disfigured. How involved he is in day-to-day decisions is the key uncertainty. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/sep/27/irans-president-says-supreme-leader-ayatollah-mojtaba-khamenei/ - [2026-10-08] Per Asharq Al-Awsat, the IRGC may hold the predominant influence over him, and he lacks his father's religious standing. Control sits with the security establishment, so a change of figurehead would not by itself mean regime collapse. https://ua.news/en/world/novim-verkhovnim-liderom-iranu-obrali-modzhtabu-khameneyi-asharq-al-awsat - [2026-10-08] State-linked outlets were reported releasing new footage to counter the health rumours. A Basij deputy promised more. The footage did not settle the health questions. (Arab Weekly, via search snippet only; the page could not be opened.) https://thearabweekly.com/iran-seeks-counter-health-rumours-footage-mojtaba-khamenei - [2026-10-14] The war is ongoing. The June US-Iran memorandum of understanding collapsed. A US naval blockade continues. Mediated exchanges on a 7-day ceasefire plan continue. Trump rejected Iran's proposal. Iran says messages via mediators continue. Leader-targeting risk persists, since Israel's threats to kill him have not been withdrawn. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-saudi-arabia-houthi/ - [~2026-09-07] Prediction-market pricing was cited as 84.9% that he leads Iran by year-end, and 6.5% for regime collapse in 2026. These are from a crypto-news report of unclear sourcing, and are dated. https://cryptobriefing.com/mojtaba-khamenei-likely-to-lead-iran-by-years-end-amid-regime-stability/ - [2026-03-01] Analysts expected "hardening continuity" rather than collapse after the decapitation. Security institutions closed ranks, and air strikes alone rarely produce regime change. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/1/analysis-will-irans-establishment-collapse-after-the-killing-of-khamenei - Reference class (my own background knowledge, not from the sources above): a supreme leader or comparable autocrat who is not removed by coup or revolution rarely leaves office in any given 11-week window. Historical base rates for a head of state leaving office in a given quarter are low, roughly 1–3%. Hidden or injured leaders, and leaders under active assassination campaigns, are higher risk. Past predictions that the Iranian regime was about to fall have mostly failed. The Hudson Institute said in January that the regime could not survive 2026 intact, and the leader has survived 7+ months since. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favours continuity. He has survived 7+ months of war, rumours of death have repeatedly failed, and the IRGC-backed system has held together. Tail risks are elevated above a normal autocrat's by his unverified health, his total absence from public view, the ongoing war and Israeli and US targeting. A proof-of-life failure could also make "prevented from acting" hard to adjudicate. NOT FOUND: Any independent confirmation of his health or any verified live appearance. A current price for this contract's own "leadership change" market (deliberately not searched). Any formal expert probability estimate for his removal by 31 Dec. I could not open the Washington Times and Arab Weekly pages, so their details come from search snippets. I could not open any page in full, so every bullet rests on search snippets.

YES means: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be Iran's de facto leader before the market closes (2027-01-01). That covers removal, detention, death, resignation, or being "prevented from acting". It would be judged by a consensus of credible reporting. - [2026-10-16] The pressure on the regime is rising. Pezeshkian said Iran has "never" faced pressure like this in 48 years, and he warned of "social protests" and elite "division-makers" (14 Oct cabinet meeting). NCRI, an opposition source, reports this, so the framing is partisan. Fetched page. https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/economy/pezeshkian-warns-of-protest-and-infighting-as-regime-expands-street-and-neighborhood-mobilization/ - [2026-10-06] The blockade is biting. CNN (Oct 6, snippet only) cites Kpler: oil stored outside the blockade zone fell from 100m barrels in July to 10m. It says Iran could run out of crude to sell by end-October, and that crude output has halved. It also reports hyperinflation. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/business/iran-economy-blockade-strait-of-hormuz-oil - [2026-10-13] Reuters, via Vortexa data, reports seaborne crude exports hit zero by Oct 5. This is a secondary summary and was not fetched. https://www.pnberg.com/iran-oil-blockade-regime-people-shadows-of-tehran/ - [2026-10-07] NCRI says the rial hit 268,500 tomans per dollar on Oct 6, and that Ghalibaf and the SSF police chief are framing economic stress as a security threat. The 2026 January uprising reached all 31 provinces. Sources are partisan or snippets. https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/economy/irans-leadership-ties-economic-strain-to-internal-security-as-controls-tighten/ - [2026-09-14] The Conversation (snippet only) calls Mojtaba a "legitimising ornament" who is "apparently incapacitated". It says the IRGC under Vahidi holds real power. That supports a literal "prevented from acting" reading. It is analysis, not an official finding. https://theconversation.com/who-is-calling-the-shots-in-iran-281066 - [2026-04 to 2026-05] Earlier reporting said Vahidi blocks presidential appointments and runs critical posts directly (Iran International, 2026-04-01). Euronews, citing ISW and US intelligence (2026-04-22), says Vahidi decides alongside Mojtaba. JNS (Israeli intelligence view) says Mojtaba is a "rubber stamp". https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604015321 - [2026-07-04] The NYT (via Times of Israel, snippet) cited four senior officials who said his absence raised concern about his rule's sustainability. Hardliners vowed to resist diplomacy until he appears or produces a voice recording. Security officials barred him from his father's funeral, fearing Israel would kill him. https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-said-to-fear-israel-could-kill-mojtaba-khamenei-if-he-attends-fathers-funeral/ - [2026-07-06] Israel's Defence Minister Katz said Mojtaba is on Israel's target list, and the threat has not been withdrawn. After the Nov 3 midterms, Trump has threatened renewed strikes. A successful decapitation is the most direct path to a Yes resolution. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/6/khamenei-family-mourns-but-mojtabas-absence-fuels-public-insecurity - [2026-10-05] An Assembly of Experts member (Heidari) says he was pulled from rubble at a third hospital, so the injury story is contested. A proof-of-life failure, such as a leaked death or incapacity, could force a formal succession step. https://iranwire.com/en/features/158466-the-absent-leader-how-iran-is-constructing-the-image-of-mojtaba-khamenei/ - [2026-03-03] A precedent for rapid succession exists. A three-member interim council took over until the Assembly picked a leader. The IRGC reportedly pressured Assembly members to vote for Mojtaba (Iran International, via Yahoo). The same IRGC bloc could replace him if he were a liability, or replace him quietly after his death. https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/03/what-is-irans-assembly-of-experts-and-who-will-succeed-khamenei Most likely path to YES: Israeli or US strikes after Nov 3 kill him, or his death or incapacity is revealed. The Assembly would then name a successor, or an IRGC-run interim council would take over. Prerequisites: - The war resumes, or he is already dead or incapacitated. - The IRGC or the Assembly acknowledges it, or credible outlets reach a consensus that he is dead or incapacitated. A secondary path is a visible IRGC-led sidelining. It would need an official announcement or broad media consensus. Mass unrest from the economic collapse is a third, weaker path. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest Yes case combines three things: a leader who has been invisible for seven months and is reported to be incapacitated, an IRGC that holds real power, and a post-midterm strike window while the economy collapses. Even so, no source reports a change, and a Yes needs a visible trigger, either a killing or an acknowledged death or incapacity. NOT FOUND: Any credible report of removal, detention, or resignation. A verified live appearance or proof of life. Any scheduled Assembly of Experts review. A fetchable full text of the CNN, Conversation and Times of Israel pieces (they returned access errors, so those bullets rest on search snippets).

YES means: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be Iran's de facto leader before the market closes on 2027-01-01 (ET). That covers removal, detention, resignation, an official announcement of his removal, death, or being "prevented from acting". - [2026-10-15] An NCRI-US piece (the NCRI is an opposition group, so it is hostile) concedes he "retains final authority" and that officials say he is in control. It cites Reuters (August) saying senior officials report he stays engaged in major decisions and has the final say. The critique is about "eroding stature", not removal. A hostile source describing an eroded role rather than a vacancy supports NO. https://www.ncrius.org/mojtaba-khamenei-stature-eroding.html - [2026-10-15] The same piece says Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, a regime insider, said Iran "does not need a sheikh and savior". The piece itself says this was not an explicit call to end the supreme leadership. No institution has moved against him. No Assembly of Experts session, no impeachment move and no defection of a senior figure surfaced. https://www.ncrius.org/mojtaba-khamenei-stature-eroding.html - [2026-10-10] Iranian state outlets amplified a Khamenei message calling the police a "pillar" of security and ordering that it be strengthened. Whoever writes the messages, the office is still issuing directives to institutions, and they are still being carried. This is a state-media claim relayed by NCRI. https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/economy/mojtaba-khamenei-hails-police-as-a-pillar-as-bombing-and-recession-undercut-show-of-strength/ - [2026-09-29] A statement attributed to him, read out on state TV and reported by AFP, said the US would be forced out of the Middle East. It was released while ceasefire talks were being revived. This shows the output channel is functioning. I did not open the page, so the date is inferred from the "18 days ago" tag. https://insiderpaper.com/iran-supreme-leader-says-us-will-be-forced-out-of-middle-east-state-tv/ - [2026-10-16] Resolution mechanics favour NO. "Prevented from acting" needs a "consensus of credible reporting". Seven months of invisibility has not produced that consensus. Britannica and Wikipedia still list him as incumbent. Reuters and Western outlets say he is reportedly engaged, and the IRGC's dominance is described as influence, not replacement. An unverifiable-health situation is the status quo, so a Yes needs a discrete, reported event. https://www.ncrius.org/mojtaba-khamenei-stature-eroding.html - [2026-03-16] Just Security argues the IRGC engineered his election and that the system is built to survive. It cites Reuters on US intelligence assessing the regime was not at risk of collapse. It also notes the opposition is fractured and has no credible leader. The IRGC has a motive to keep a compliant figurehead in place, even an injured or invisible one, rather than open a succession fight. The sources are dated but the mechanism still applies. https://www.justsecurity.org/133945/entrenchment-iran-security-state/ - [2026-03-16] Just Security also notes that his death would not remove the IRGC and hardliners. That matters for the NO case in one way. Even if he died, the IRGC would plausibly delay or conceal it, and a hidden death is not "consensus credible reporting". It cuts the other way on actual death risk. https://www.justsecurity.org/133945/entrenchment-iran-security-state/ - [2026-03-05] Iran International reported the Assembly selected him under IRGC pressure, with at least eight members expected to skip a session in protest. Even so, he was ratified and the objectors did not block him. The same internal dissent has not produced any reversal in the seven months since. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603052337 - [2026-10-16] Deadline arithmetic: the window is 76 days, from 2026-10-17 to 2026-12-31. The pre-midterm US strike pause runs to 11-03, leaving about 8 weeks of exposure after that. The Israeli and US threats to target him date from March and have not succeeded in 7.5 months of war. NCRI's "next uprising is imminent" claim is partisan, and the January uprising was suppressed. https://www.ncrius.org/mojtaba-khamenei-stature-eroding.html - [2026-10-16] Economic and security stress is real but does not point to a leader's removal in this window. The NCRI cites a Central Bank institute estimate of a 12.1% contraction in spring. There was a roadside-bomb attack on police in Sistan-Baluchestan on 10-09. Neither has produced elite fracture. https://fr.ncr-iran.org/actualites/terrorisme-a-integrisme/mojtaba-khamenei-salue-la-police-comme-un-pilier-alors-que-les-attentats-et-la-recession-fragilisent-le-regime/ BOTTOM LINE: A Yes needs a discrete, credibly reported event inside a 76-day window, such as death, removal or detention. Seven months of rumours, an IRGC interest in keeping the office occupied, and the "consensus of credible reporting" standard all favour NO. The ambiguity from his invisibility has so far gone unresolved and has not been treated as incapacity. NOT FOUND: Any report from the last 7 days of an Assembly of Experts move, a resignation, a detention, or credible confirmation of death or incapacity. Any official statement or leak of an impeachment process. I could not open the Reuters August 28 piece ("disfigured, invisible") directly, so its content comes via NCRI's summary. I did not search for or report this contract's own price.