Will Oklahoma’s field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 147.89 million barrels?

- [2026-10-17] The EIA monthly series for Oklahoma (MCRFPOK2, thousand b/d) shows 2026 Jan–Jul as 380, 396, 396, 384, 386, 390 and 391. August–December are blank. The page header reads "Release Date 10/30/2026", which is odd given today's date. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=M - [2026-10-17] My calculation from those monthly rates gives about 82.45 million bbl for Jan–Jul 2026, using days per month. That is roughly 12,121 thousand bbl for July. EIA's monthly-total table shows a July value of 12,122, which matches. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm - [2026-10-17] To exceed 147,890 thousand bbl, Aug–Dec (153 days) must add at least about 65.44 million bbl. That is an average of about 428 kb/d, against 391 kb/d in July and a 12-month average of about 398. No month since 2024 has reached 428 kb/d. 2025's peak month was 421 in October. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=M - [2026-09-30] The EIA annual table, as relayed by a secondary site, puts Oklahoma 2025 at 147,467 thousand bbl, up 0.8% from 146,289 in 2024. The threshold of 147.89 million is therefore about 0.3% above 2025's total. https://americanmineralregistry.com/research/oil-and-gas-production-by-state - [2026-09-30] EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly (data for July 2026) was released on this date, and the next release is scheduled for 2026-10-30. The August data should appear then. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/monthly/ - [2026-10-15] A third-party aggregator of EIA data lists Oklahoma July 2026 at 391 kb/d. That is 2.3% below a year earlier and below the 12-month average of 398. https://worldoilmonitor.com/oil-production-by-state - [2026-10-05] Peak Oil Barrel, reading from the search snippet because the page itself returned 403, says Oklahoma's January output fell to 380 kb/d on severe weather. It says output stays within a 400 ± 20 kb/d range. It says rigs rose from 40 in January to about 49 by late September. https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-july-oil-production-just-short-of-new-high/ - [2026-10-09] Baker Hughes counted 51 Oklahoma rigs, down one from the prior week. That compares with 40 a year earlier. The US count was 600–603, the highest since May 2024. https://www.petroleumnews.com/story/2026/10/18/e-and-p/baker-hughes-us-rig-count-reaches-600/50449.html - [2026-10-02] Oklahoma held at 52 rigs. The US count was 598, and the article cites Middle East military developments and slow Strait of Hormuz flows. https://okenergytoday.com/2026/10/drilling-activity-in-u-s-and-oklahoma-is-nearly-unchanged/ - [2026-09-30] US crude output was 13.95 million b/d in July 2026, up from 13.84 million in June. The record is 14.00 million, set in October 2025. National output is strong, but Oklahoma is flat to down. https://boereport.com/2026/09/30/us-crude-oil-output-rose-in-july-while-petroleum-demand-declined-eia-says/ - [2026-06] YCharts shows Oklahoma monthly output of 12.4–12.95 million bbl through late 2025. Its Dec 2025 value was 12.77 million. This is an older vintage of the EIA data. https://ycharts.com/indicators/oklahoma_crude_oil_production BOTTOM LINE: Jan–Jul 2026 is about 82.45 million bbl, so the rest of the year would need to average about 428 kb/d, roughly 9% above July's rate and above any recent month. A rise in rig activity makes that very unlikely, though a large upward revision to the 2026 data is the main residual risk. The 2026 annual total would first appear in EIA's Sept 2027 annual release, after the market closes. The outcome would then depend on how the market settles, which I did not check. NOT FOUND: EIA's August 2026 Oklahoma figure (due 2026-10-30). The EIA's official 2025 annual page, read directly. Any official EIA STEO forecast for Oklahoma, which EIA does not publish by state. The Oklahoma Tax Commission gross-production data for 2026.

- [2026-10-17] The threshold of 147,890 thousand barrels equals about 405.2 kb/d over 365 days. EIA's annual series lists Oklahoma at 472 kb/d in 2020, 406 in 2021, 415 in 2022, 430 in 2023, 400 in 2024 and 404 in 2025. The 2025 annual figure is about 147.5 million barrels, so the threshold sits slightly above it. Annual page, release dated 9/30/2026: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=A - [2026-10-17] EIA monthly 2026 values (kb/d): Jan 380, Feb 396, Mar 396, Apr 384, May 386, Jun 390, Jul 391. Aug–Dec are not yet published. The mean is about 389 kb/d, below the 405 kb/d the threshold implies. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=M - [2026-10-17] My arithmetic from those monthly values: Jan–Jul 2026 totals about 82.45 million barrels. Reaching 147.89 million needs about 65.4 million barrels over Aug–Dec, which is about 428 kb/d. That is above any month since Dec 2023 (415) and above every month of 2025 (max 421). Past revisions could move this: EIA revised Oklahoma up by about 100 kb/d in 2016, and revisions to recent months are normal. - [2026-10-17] 2025 monthly values (kb/d): 399, 380, 409, 405, 399, 404, 400, 393, 411, 421, 412, 413. H2 2025 was stronger than H1, which gives a higher year-ago comparison for late 2026. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=M - [2026-10-15] A tracker of EIA monthly state data shows Oklahoma at 391 kb/d for July 2026, down 2.3% year on year, with a 12-month average of 398. https://worldoilmonitor.com/oil-production-by-state - [2026-10-17] Base rate: from 2020 to 2025 annual Oklahoma output was flat to down in 4 of 5 year-on-year changes (rises in 2021, 2022 and 2025). Over 2021–2025 the average was about 411 kb/d, with a range of 400–430. A 2026 average of 405 or more would need a clear reversal, because YTD is running below 2025. - [2026-10-08] EIA's October STEO raised its 2026 U.S. crude forecast to 13.87 million b/d, versus 13.7 in 2025. The growth is concentrated in the Permian and the Federal Gulf, not Oklahoma. I found no Oklahoma-specific STEO forecast. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/10/08/short-term-energy-outlook-october-2026 and https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125 - [2026-10-09] Baker Hughes shows Oklahoma at 51 rigs, up from 40 a year earlier. The count was 42–45 in March–May and 48 in July. A rig recovery since spring could lift output, but with a typical lag of several months. https://okenergytoday.com/2026/10/oil-and-gas-sees-big-jump-in-drilling-activity-with-increased-rig-totals/ - [2026-08-25] Oklahoma was steady at 50 rigs, versus 43 a year earlier. Higher rig counts have not yet shown up in EIA's Oklahoma output through July. https://okenergytoday.com/2026/08/nations-oil-and-gas-rig-total-declined-but-oklahoma-was-steady/ - [2026-09] Context: EIA raised its 2026 WTI forecast to $84.65, citing Middle East supply disruption (Hormuz). Higher prices support a drilling response in late 2026, but any effect on Oklahoma output would be partial and lagged. https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/eia-raises-oil-price-forecasts-what-did-the-steo-report-show - [2026-10-17] Resolution timing: EIA's annual state figures are released around 8/31/2027 per the annual page, but monthly data would complete the year by about Feb–Mar 2027. The market closes 2027-02-26, and the December 2026 monthly figure is expected around late Feb–Mar 2027. The close may therefore come before the full-year data are available. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=A BOTTOM LINE: The outside view leans NO. 2026 YTD (about 389 kb/d) is well below the roughly 405 kb/d needed, and Aug–Dec would have to average about 428 kb/d, higher than any recent month. The main upside risks are a rig-driven output rise, which would be lagged, and upward data revisions. NOT FOUND: an Oklahoma-specific EIA STEO forecast for 2026; any published forecast or poll for the Oklahoma annual total; the Aug–Dec 2026 monthly EIA values; the source of the 147.89 figure (2025 sums to about 147.45 on my arithmetic, so it may reflect a revision).

YES means: EIA's Oklahoma field production of crude oil for calendar 2026 is reported above 147,890 thousand barrels (about 405.2 kb/d averaged over 365 days). I found no evidence that YES is on track. The case below is the best one available. - [2026-10-17] I re-fetched the EIA monthly series, and the Jan–Jul 2026 values match the earlier reports: 380, 396, 396, 384, 386, 390, 391. The 2025 row now sums to about 147,454 kb on a days-weighted basis. That is within rounding of the annual table's 147,467. So the monthly and annual series are consistent, and the threshold sits only about 423 kb (0.29%) above 2025. YES needs 2026 to beat 2025 by a small margin overall, but Jan–Jul is already behind. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=M - [2026-10-17] Oklahoma's monthly numbers have been revised by several kb/d. The Feb 2026 vintage had 2025 as Mar 406, May 407, Aug 400, Sep 414, Oct 417, Nov 417. The current vintage has Mar 409, May 399, Aug 393, Sep 411, Oct 421, Nov 412, and Dec is now 413. Revisions of ±3–8 kb/d per month are routine. Applied to 2026 they would shift the annual total by only about ±1–3 million barrels, so they cannot close a gap of about 0.9 million barrels per Jan–Jul shortfall and still need the Aug–Dec ramp. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/pdf/table1.pdf - [2026-10-17] The PATH TO YES is: (1) the rigs added since spring show up in output within about 1–3 months, (2) Aug–Dec averages roughly 428 kb/d, and (3) upward revisions add a few kb/d to Jan–Jul. The 2025 monthly series shows such a ramp is possible. Output went 393 (Aug) → 411 → 421 (Oct), a +28 kb/d rise in two months. Repeating that from July's 391 gives about 419, still short of 428. So even the best analogue falls short without revisions. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=M - [2026-10-16] Rig data supports a drilling-led ramp. Oklahoma moved from 45 rigs in May (vs 55 a year earlier) to 50 in July, 51 in August, 52 in late September and 51 on Oct 9. That is about +6 versus May and about +11 versus a year earlier. The rise started in June, so completions should reach the data from Q3 into Q4. https://okenergytoday.com/2026/10/oil-and-gas-sees-big-jump-in-drilling-activity-with-increased-rig-totals/ and https://www.okenergytoday.com/2026/05/rig-count-gains-in-oklahoma/ - [2026-10-10] Rigs are concentrated in the gas-weighted Cana Woodford and Granite Wash (20 each) and the Ardmore Woodford (2). The Mississippian has none. The mix is oil-and-liquids-rich STACK/Anadarko, which supports a modest oil response. But it is mostly gas and condensate, so the oil effect per rig is limited. https://okenergytoday.com/2026/10/no-change-in-oklahomas-oil-and-gas-rig-activity/ - [2026-07] The Oklahoma Treasurer's July 2026 report said oil prices were elevated, drilling had strengthened and the 12-month gross production tax trend showed meaningful growth. Monthly July revenue was down 9.9% year on year. This is revenue, not volume. It indicates price rather than a volume surge, and it gives no direct support for 428 kb/d. https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/treasurer/documents/inside-the-office/economic-reports/ok-economic-report-newsletter/2026/July%20Economic%20Report.pdf - [2026-10-10] Nationally, 462 oil rigs are running, 44 more than a year ago. The count has risen by 15 over five weeks, with a Permian lead. The incentive is high prices (the June STEO has Brent at $95). A price-driven completions wave could raise Oklahoma's Q4 output, but the evidence so far favors the Permian. https://energynow.com/2026/10/u-s-rig-count-climbs-above-600-as-oil-drilling-leads-weekly-increase/ and https://discoveryalert.com.au/eia-oil-production-forecast-steo-us-crude-2026-2027/ - [2026-09-30] The monthly series has little noise at the top: Dec 2025 was 413, and 2023's range was 415–453. Oklahoma's 2023 level (about 430 average, 157 million barrels) shows the state can sustain 428+ with about 60 rigs or more. Current rigs are lower, but the earlier 2023 base was already established. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm - [2026-10-17] Resolution mechanics are a small help to YES. The annual figure is the sum of EIA's monthly values. The final 2026 annual table is due 8/31/2027, after the Feb 26, 2027 close. The monthly page shows a release date of 10/30/2026 and a next release of 11/30/2026. Later PSM releases can revise Jan–Jul upward as survey data fill in. Each release could add a few kb/d to the whole 2026 base, and an early-2027 Dec figure would be preliminary. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=M BOTTOM LINE: The only credible YES route combines a rig-driven jump to about 420–430 kb/d in Aug–Dec with upward revisions to the Jan–Jul figures. The 2025 Aug→Oct ramp of +28 kb/d is the best precedent, and it still falls short of the required ~428 kb/d average without revisions. NOT FOUND: EIA's August 2026 Oklahoma figure (due 10/30/2026). Any Oklahoma-specific forecast of 2026 output. Oklahoma Corporation Commission or Tax Commission volume data for 2026. Any source showing an upward revision to 2026 Oklahoma months.

YES means: EIA reports Oklahoma's calendar-2026 field production of crude oil above 147,890 thousand barrels (about 147.89 million barrels). - [2026-09-30] I read EIA's annual series directly. It gives 2025 as 147,467 thousand bbl and 2024 as 146,289. It lists 2020–2025 as 172,868, 148,251, 151,653, 157,057, 146,289 and 147,467. The threshold is therefore 423 thousand bbl (0.29%) above the latest published year. Oklahoma has not been above 147.89 million in a year except 2021–2023 and 2020. The annual page shows "Next Release Date: 8/31/2027". https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=A&n=PET&s=MCRFPOK1 - [2026-10-17] Resolution-timing technicality: the official annual 2026 figure is not due until about 2027-08-31, and the PSA says "Next Release Date: August 2027". That is after the 2027-02-26 trading close. The December monthly data will probably also come out after close, around late Feb to Mar 2027. If the rules require an annual "EIA reports" figure, nothing can confirm Yes by the deadline. If the market settles from monthly sums, Aug–Dec still needs about 428 kb/d, per the earlier reports. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/annual/volume1/ - [2026-10-17] The Petroleum Supply Annual page says the 2025 data came out 2026-09-01. The annual state table is dated 9/30/2026 and uses the PSM/EIA-914 estimates. Annual 2025 (147,467) is the sum of monthly estimates that were revised after first publication. The earlier "Nov 2025" vintage had Oklahoma at 399, 380, 406, 406, 407, 403, 395, 400 and 414 kb/d for Jan–Sep 2025. Later vintages show 399, 380, 409, 405, 399, 404, 400, 393, 411. Monthly revisions have been small, a few kb/d each way, in the revisions I can see. A revision large enough to add about 40 kb/d for the rest of the year is not typical. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/pdf/table1.pdf - [2026-10-17] EIA's monthly-total table gives 2026 volumes of 11,088 (Feb), 12,291 (Mar), 11,524 (Apr), 11,967 (May), 11,691 (Jun) and 12,122 (Jul) thousand bbl. The page is labelled "Release Date 10/30/2026" but is a stale snapshot, so the numbers may be an earlier vintage. July at 12,122 is below the 12,400+ per month the remaining months would need on average. The needed monthly average is about 13.09 million bbl over 5 months, and no 2025–26 month has exceeded about 13.0 million. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm - [2026-10-17] Drilling does not show a rapid supply response. Oklahoma rigs were 43 in Jan, 45–46 in Feb–Mar, 43–44 in Apr–May, and 50 by late Aug. Monthly output over the same stretch moved only 380 → 391 kb/d. A year earlier, rigs were 55 in Apr 2025. Rig counts are still below the spring-2025 level that produced the 2025 H2 peak. The lag from rigs to production is months. Rigs added since spring would mostly lift 2027, not Aug–Dec 2026. https://okenergytoday.com/2026/04/rig-totals-hold-steady/ - [2026-02] The Petroleum Alliance legislative letter says Oklahoma rig activity "fell farther and faster" than in peer states. It describes a structural shift of capital and talent away from the Anadarko Basin. That supports status-quo inertia (flat output near 390–400 kb/d) rather than a step change. https://www.thepetroleumalliance.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026_Legislative_Letter_Final.pdf - [2026-08/09] Operator capital is going to gas-weighted Anadarko plays. Cana Woodford and Granite Wash are the most active plays, and the Cherokee/Des Moines play is 40% oil. Diversified and Carlyle agreed in May 2026 to buy about $1.2B of Anadarko assets, which is a transaction rather than new drilling. Oil growth from gas-weighted plays is limited. https://www.oklahomaminerals.com/cherokee-and-des-moines-formations-anchor-oklahomas-hottest-anadarko-play - [2026-10-17] The threshold is in EIA's thousand-barrel units (147,890), with a fixed strike that does not follow 2025 revisions. Even if the 2025 total is revised up, the 2026 total must still beat the fixed number. The year-to-date average through July (389 kb/d, about 82.45M bbl) leaves no slack. A flat 391 kb/d for Aug–Dec would give a 2026 total of about 143.4M. That is about 4.5M short of the threshold. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm - [2026-10-17] Even matching 2025's strong Aug–Dec profile (393, 411, 421, 412, 413 kb/d, from the colleagues' 2025 series) would give a 2026 total of about 146.9M. That is still short. Output would need to beat last year's best-ever H2 by roughly 15–20 kb/d. This is the hardest hurdle because Jan–Jul is already about 0.8M bbl below the same period in 2025. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPOK2&f=M BOTTOM LINE: Literal reading favours NO. 2026 is tracking about 143–147M bbl. Reaching 147.89M requires Aug–Dec to run about 428 kb/d, above any month in the series, against a flat trend. The official annual figure arrives after the market closes. NOT FOUND: EIA's August 2026 Oklahoma figure (due 2026-10-30). Kalshi's rules text on what source or date settles the market if EIA's annual release comes after close. An Oklahoma Tax Commission 2026 production total. An Oklahoma-specific forecast of 2026 output.