Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

- [2026-10-15/16] The CDC counter, which resolves this market, was updated 2026-10-16. It shows 4,410 confirmed 2026 cases as of 2026-10-15. These came from 47 jurisdictions plus 18 cases among international visitors. There have been 42 outbreaks, and 96% of cases are outbreak-associated. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html - [2026-10-16] The weekly gain was +330, up from +193 the week before. Reuters says the total was 4,410, up 330 from a week earlier. It also reports 451 hospitalizations. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2026/10/16/cdc-reports-4410-measles-cases-as-outbreak-grows/92284701007/ - [2026-10-09] The CDC count was 4,080, up 193 (+5.0%). CIDRAP puts the weekly gain at 194 and calls it the ninth straight week of double-digit increases. https://www.contagionlive.com/view/measles-update-october-9-2026 and https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/pennsylvania-leading-way-us-measles-cases-top-4000 - [2026-10-02] The CDC count was 3,887, up 228 (+6.2%). https://www.contagionlive.com/view/measles-update-october-2-2026 - [2026-09-25] The CDC count was 3,659, up 171. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/us-measles-cases-continue-climb-topping-3600 - [2026-09-11] The CDC count was 3,294. Pennsylvania had the most cases of any state. South Carolina's outbreak had been declared over on 2026-04-27. Utah had gone more than three weeks without a new case. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/us-measles-cases-approach-3300-over-1000-more-all-last-year - [2026-10-16] Pennsylvania is the main driver. It had 1,260 cases as of 2026-10-16, with 238 hospitalizations. The state has reported five measles deaths. The CDC is sending an Epi-Aid "disease detective" team there. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2026/10/16/cdc-reports-4410-measles-cases-as-outbreak-grows/92284701007/ - [2026-10-10 to 2026-10-14] New York declared a state disaster emergency in early October, the first such declaration by a state. New York had 126 cases through 2026-10-10, and county officials say that undercounts the outbreak. Wisconsin had 263 as of 2026-10-06, Ohio 231, and Kentucky 104. https://gothamist.com/news/ny-measles-outbreak-more-widespread-than-official-count-health-officials-say and https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/pennsylvania-leading-way-us-measles-cases-top-4000 - [2026-10-09] Annual benchmark: the CDC's 2025 full-year total was 2,289. The 2026 count is already the highest since elimination was declared in 2000. https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-measles-cases-are-there-in-the-us/country/united-states/ - [2026-10-16] Timing: the CDC page updates weekly on Fridays, with data as of Thursday noon. Cases are assigned to a year by rash-onset epi week. The remaining updates before year-end are about 11 (Oct 23 to Dec 31). The question requires 5,590 more cases. That averages about 508 per week, against recent weekly gains of 171, 228, 193 and 330. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html - [2026-10-09] The CDC has sent about $100M to states for outbreak response (NYT, via CIDRAP). https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/pennsylvania-leading-way-us-measles-cases-top-4000 BOTTOM LINE: The counter reads 4,410 on 2026-10-15. Reaching 10,000 by year-end needs about 5,590 more cases, roughly 500 or more per week, which is about 1.5 times the latest weekly gain of 330. Weekly gains have been rising (171→228→193→330) but are still well short of that pace. NOT FOUND: Any CDC or modeled projection for the 2026 year-end total. Any scheduled event that would change the CDC reporting cadence.

- [2026-10-16] CDC counter (data as of Oct 15): 4,410 confirmed 2026 cases. That is +330 in a week (+8.1%), and the prior week was +193. 42 new outbreaks in 2026, 96% of cases outbreak-associated, 451 hospitalizations. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html (confirmed on fetched page; weekly figures also at https://www.contagionlive.com/view/measles-update-october-16-2026) - [2026-10-17] Gap to the threshold: 10,000 − 4,410 = 5,590 more cases. There are about 11 weekly CDC updates left (Oct 23 through about Dec 31). That requires about 510 per week on average. The most recent week was 330, and the week before was 193. At a constant 330 per week the year-end total would be about 8,000. This is my arithmetic, not a published forecast. https://www.contagionlive.com/view/measles-update-october-16-2026 - [2026-10-09] The CDC total was 4,080, which is +193 (+5.0%) week on week. https://abcnews.com/Health/us-surpasses-4000-measles-cases-infections-confirmed-45/story?id=137125273 - [2026-09-24] CRS reported 3,659 cases as of Sept 24. Reuters reported 3,134 on Sept 4, and 3,294 on Sept 11 (+160) per respiratory-therapy.com. Counts on Oct 1 (3,887) and Oct 9 (4,080) fit the same trajectory. Weekly additions rose from about 160 to 330 over September–October. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF13322 - [2026-07-24] The CDC total was 2,318, passing the 2025 full-year total of 2,289. It was 2,030 on June 4 and 2,566 on Aug 14. Growth from late July to mid-October was about 2,100 cases in 12 weeks, or about 175 per week. https://www.investing.com/news/general-news/us-cdc-records-over-2300-measles-cases-so-far-in-2026-4812239 - [2026-10-16] The Pennsylvania outbreak is the main current driver. Pennsylvania officials report at least 1,200 cases and six deaths. The state requested CDC Epi-Aid help. https://www.contagionlive.com/view/measles-update-october-16-2026 - [2026-09-04] The Pennsylvania outbreak count was 577 on Sept 4 and about 1,200 by Oct 16. That is more than a doubling in six weeks, and the state's count includes cases not yet in the CDC tally. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2026-09-04/us-cdc-records-more-than-3-100-measles-cases-so-far-in-2026 - [2026-07-23] Historical reference class: 9,643 cases in 1991 was the last year above 2025–26 levels. 1992 had 2,126. Reaching 10,000 would be the highest total since before 1991. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jul/23/us-measles-cases-surpass-2025s-total-according-johns-hopkins/ - [2026-10-15] The 2025 full-year total was 2,289 and the 2024 total was 285. Annual totals have risen about 8x, then about 2x, in successive years. No year since 1991 has reached 10,000. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html - [2026-10-16] Kindergarten MMR coverage fell from 95.2% in 2019–20 to 92.4% in 2025–26. About 280,000 kindergartners are at risk. This supports continued outbreak potential. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/16/us-records-4410-measles-cases-as-outbreak-grows - [2026-09-04] There is some risk of CDC counting being delayed or revised. HHS reportedly asked for a reference to the Pennsylvania deaths to be removed from the CDC tally. This concerns deaths, not case counts. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2026-09-04/us-cdc-records-more-than-3-100-measles-cases-so-far-in-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The CDC count (4,410) is under half of 10,000. Reaching 10,000 would need weekly additions of about 510 for 11 straight weeks, against recent weeks of 193 and 330. Only a sharp, sustained acceleration (for example, much faster Pennsylvania growth or new large outbreaks) would get there, and no historical year since 1991 has done so. NOT FOUND: Any published expert or model projection of the 2026 year-end total. I did not search for this contract's own price. I also found no sibling-strike prices (for example 5,000 or 7,500) or other venues' markets.

YES means: the CDC measles counter shows 10,000 or more confirmed U.S. cases for 2026 at the Dec 31, 2026 resolution time. - [2026-10-14] Pennsylvania reported 1,222 cases, +86 from a week earlier (Reuters, fetched). The state count was 1,004 on Oct 5 (ABC). That is about +218 in nine days, a faster pace than early October, when the state grew by about 106 a week. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2026-10-14/pennsylvania-reports-1-222-measles-cases-as-outbreak-grows - [2026-10-05] Lancaster County, the epicenter, had 391 of Pennsylvania's 1,004 cases. At that time 39 of the state's 67 counties had cases. Two-thirds of cases are in adults, and under 1% of cases are fully vaccinated. The outbreak therefore has wide geographic room and a large pool of unprotected people. https://abcnews.com/Health/measles-cases-surpass-1000-pennsylvania-outbreak-continues-spread/story?id=137002024 - [2026-10-06] The Pennsylvania outbreak began in late April. The state had only 12 cases in Q1 and then grew to over 1,000. That shows how fast a single outbreak can go from near zero to thousands. https://www.nfid.org/pennsylvania-measles-outbreak-3-lessons-for-the-us/ - [2026-10-05] New York's executive order, effective Oct 5 to Nov 4, cites 92 cases since July 15 in 18 rural counties. It says the rise is driven partly by spread in bordering Pennsylvania counties. This is a second, seeding front into under-immunized rural areas. https://www.governor.ny.gov/executive-order/no-65-declaring-disaster-emergency-state-new-york-due-ongoing-measles-outbreak - [2026-10-16] The CDC page (fetched) shows 1,384 of the 4,410 cases come from outbreaks that started in 2025. 2,844 come from 2026 outbreaks, and 42 new outbreaks have been reported. The count is not driven by a single source. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html - [2026-10-16] The CDC page states it counts only confirmed cases. It says it is aware of probable cases that jurisdictions have not yet notified to it. A CNN tracker says CDC national data lags state reports. That is a pipeline of probable-case backlog that could produce catch-up jumps. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html and https://krdo.com/news/2026/10/09/tracking-measles-cases-in-the-united-states-2/ - [2026-10-16] A Yahoo/The Hill piece says 4,410 "all but guarantees" 2026 will more than double 2025's 2,289. It reports that HHS Secretary Kennedy was pressed on the worsening situation on Oct 15. This is a political backdrop with no sign of a federal surge, and the CDC is sending only a single disease detective to Pennsylvania. https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/us-measles-cases-top-4-211803894.html - [2026-09-14] A viruswatcher summary of CDC's weekly NNDSS counts says state reports are provisional and about three weeks behind the calendar. It says wastewater signals move a week or more ahead of clinic visits. Cases with rash onset in Oct–Dec will still be reported into early 2027. The Dec 31 counter will therefore lag actual transmission by weeks, which cuts against YES. https://viruswatcher.com/blog/measles-2026 - [2026-10-09] CNN notes PAHO may decide on U.S. elimination status in November. That does not change case counts. It does show experts expect continuing transmission. https://krdo.com/news/2026/10/09/tracking-measles-cases-in-the-united-states-2/ - [2026-04-xx] A Frontiers paper (ARIMA/GLM, published about Sept 2026) found every model underestimated cumulative 2026 cases. This shows trend models have repeatedly been too low in this surge. I found no published forecast of the year-end total. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/epidemiology/articles/10.3389/fepid.2026.1921780/full - [2026-04-xx] A John Kass post, written after Q1, projected 5,000–7,000 for 2026. The count is already at 4,410 in mid-October, so that projection looks too low. This is a commentary piece, not a model. https://johnkassnews.com/2026-measles-projection-and-what-to-do-about-it-part-ii/ BOTTOM LINE: The only credible route to YES is a sharp acceleration. Weekly CDC gains would have to climb from 330 to about 500 or more and stay there for 11 weeks. That needs Pennsylvania to keep growing exponentially (86–106 cases a week at the state level now), the New York and Midwest rural spread to take off, and a CDC catch-up of the probable-case backlog. Trend models have underestimated 2026 throughout, but even the most favourable reading leaves 10,000 well beyond the current trajectory. NOT FOUND: Any expert or model projection of the 2026 year-end CDC total. Any sign of a CDC reporting change. Any measure of the size of the probable-case backlog.

YES means: the CDC measles counter shows 10,000 or more confirmed 2026 U.S. cases at resolution (by 2026-12-31). - [2026-10-14] Pennsylvania is decelerating, not accelerating, on its own count. The state reported 1,222 cases on Oct 14, up 86 from a week earlier (Reuters). CIDRAP had the state at 1,136 on Oct 9, with 157 added that week. Pennsylvania is the main driver of the national count, and its weekly adds fell by about 45% (157 to 86). The colleague's 1,260 figure for Oct 16 implies about +38 in two days. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2026-10-14/pennsylvania-reports-1-222-measles-cases-as-outbreak-grows (search snippet; the fetch failed) and https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/pennsylvania-leading-way-us-measles-cases-top-4000 (fetched) - [2026-10-07] Part of the recent CDC jumps is backlog, not new infections. Pennsylvania DOH said that of 74 cases added in one update, more than 40 were people who fell ill over two weeks earlier. It said the update "does not reflect a current surge in new infections." Backlog clearing inflates weekly gains, such as the +330, without raising the underlying transmission rate. https://abcnews.com/Health/health-officials-report-74-new-measles-cases-pennsylvania/story?id=137091205 (search snippet) - [2026-10-09] The weekly CDC total is a mix of Pennsylvania and a few other states, and none of those others is large enough to fill the gap. Wisconsin added 20 cases that week (263 total). Ohio added 25 (231). Kentucky added 10 (104). New York had 102 as of Oct 6. CDC reported no new outbreaks that week. Reaching about 510 per week would need several of these to grow at once, or a new Pennsylvania-sized outbreak. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/pennsylvania-leading-way-us-measles-cases-top-4000 (fetched) - [2026-10-03] New York is small relative to the 5,590-case gap. The state had 108 cases as of Oct 3 (7 in NYC, 101 elsewhere). 92 of those came since July 15, which is roughly 8 per week over about 11 weeks. The emergency order runs only to Nov 4. NYC reported 7 cases as of Oct 16. https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-declares-state-disaster-emergency-response-ongoing-measles-outbreak and https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/measles.page - [2026-10-09] Pennsylvania's response is scaling up. MMR doses given in September were over twice the usual monthly volume (56,000 vs 25,000). CDC has also sent about $100M to states. The 99% unvaccinated share means vaccination reaches the susceptible pool directly. Both effects should slow growth over weeks. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/pennsylvania-leading-way-us-measles-cases-top-4000 (fetched) - [2026-10-15] The year-assignment rule can shrink what counts for 2026. CDC assigns cases to a year by rash-onset epi week, and 2025–26 counts are preliminary and subject to change. A case with onset in the last epi week of 2026 would fall into 2027. Because of reporting lag, cases with onset in December often won't be on the counter by Dec 31. The final pre-deadline update is about Dec 31 or earlier, and holiday weeks can delay it. Late-year infections therefore contribute less than their true number. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html (fetched) - [2026-10-16] CNN notes that CDC national data lags state reports. CDC's own MMWR describes provisional data as subject to reporting delays from care-seeking, testing and case investigation. The CDC counter is the only qualifying source. State dashboards and the Johns Hopkins tracker (4,267 on Oct 9, vs CDC 4,080) run ahead of it and don't count. https://www.cnn.com/health/tracking-measles-cases-us-maps-vis and https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7533a1.htm - [2026-09-25] Precedent within 2026: the South Carolina outbreak peaked at 997 cases over about 6 months (Oct 2025–Mar 2026) and then ended, declared over Apr 27. Pennsylvania is already at about 1,260 after starting in late April. Large outbreaks have run out of susceptibles in under a year. NBC quoted a UPMC expert expecting 3–6 more months. Even then, the Pennsylvania path would have to roughly triple. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7533a1.htm and https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pennsylvanias-measles-outbreak-countrys-largest-three-decades-rcna601648 - [2026-10-08] The Red Book composition shows how concentrated the count is. Of 4,080 cases, 1,384 belong to outbreaks that began in 2025. Another 2,513 come from outbreaks that began in 2026. That covers 3,897 outbreak-associated cases, and 42 outbreaks produced them. The count is built from a few big outbreaks, and the biggest in South Carolina and Utah are already over or quiet. https://publications.aap.org/redbook/resources/15187/Red-Book-Online-Outbreaks-Measles - [2026-10-16] Deadline arithmetic, with the 2026-10-17 baseline. The count must rise by 5,590 in about 11 updates. If weekly gains average even 400, the total is about 8,800. A year-end total of 10,000 would need about 510 per week from now. That is more than 1.5 times the record weekly gain of 330, which itself includes backlog. The prior record was 228 the week before. Since June 4 (2,030), the average gain has been about 165 per week. No year since 1991 has reached 10,000, and 1991 itself (9,643) fell short. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html and https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/pennsylvania-leading-way-us-measles-cases-top-4000 - [2026-10-12] Other states are not showing exponential national growth. California had 60 cases as of Oct 12, and only 1 had rash onset in October. September had 0. The geography of new cases is narrow: Pennsylvania, the upstate New York rural border region, and Midwest pockets. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/measles.aspx BOTTOM LINE: The case for No rests on arithmetic. 10,000 needs about 510 per week for 11 weeks. The record week was 330 and probably inflated by backlog, and Pennsylvania's own weekly adds fell from 157 to 86 in the latest week. Reporting lag and the rash-onset year rule trim late-2026 cases further. Status-quo continuation of 200–350 per week leads to roughly 6,600–8,300, which is well short. NOT FOUND: Any published model or expert projection of the 2026 year-end total. Any CDC statement of the Dec 2026 update schedule. Pennsylvania's Oct 16 weekly breakdown beyond the colleague's total. The US News page could not be fetched, so its figures come from search results only.