Will the Port of Savannah’s total container volume for 2026 be above 5.6 million TEUs?

- [2026-10-07] Savannah handled a record 504,015 TEUs in September 2026, up 3.7% year on year. Loaded imports rose 5.5%. GPA's fiscal Q1 (Jul–Sep) came to more than 1.5M TEUs, up 40,560 (2.7%). GPA attributed this to typhoon delays pushing peak-season cargo into September. https://www.railwayage.com/intermodal/intermodal-briefs-port-of-savannah-iana/ - [2026-09-15] August 2026 was 529,523 TEUs, down under 1% year on year. GPA said July–August fiscal-year-to-date volume was 1.03M TEUs, up 2.2%. Lynch cited typhoons in Asia and low Panama Canal water as drags, and said September numbers on the water looked strong. https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/09/gpa-sees-strong-start-to-fy2027-despite-flat-savannah-volumes/ - [2026-07] First-half calendar 2026 was 2.83M TEUs, down 21,533 (0.76%) versus H1 2025. June was 483,684 (+18%). FY2026 (Jul 2025–Jun 2026) was 5.67M. https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/07/savannah-fy2026-volumes-down-year-on-year/ - [2026-10-17] My arithmetic, not an official figure: calendar-2026 YTD through September is roughly 4.33–4.37M TEUs (H1 2.83M plus fiscal Q1 of just over 1.5M). Reaching more than 5.6M needs about 1.23–1.27M TEUs in Oct–Dec, or about 410–425k a month. That is below every month since July (about 470k–530k). - [2026-01-27] Calendar 2025 comparison: GPA reported nearly 5.7M TEUs, up 2.6%, the second-busiest year after 2022 (~5.9M). December 2025 was 439,630. https://www.savannahtrafficclub.org/news/port-of-savannah-achieves-second-busiest-year-ever - [2025-11-20] October 2025 was 452,934 TEUs, down 8.4% year on year. A 2025 Nov–Dec baseline is only partly sourced here (December known, November not found). https://www.wtoc.com/2025/11/20/port-savannah-has-handled-48-million-teus-so-far-2025/ - [2026-05-19] April 2026 was 443,650, down about 14% year on year because of 2025 tariff front-loading. Fiscal YTD through April was down 2.5%. This was the weak patch of 2026. https://gaports.com/press-releases/savannah-container-trade-2-5-percent-lower-through-april/ - [2026-10-14] At State of the Port, Lynch said GPA expects to surpass 6M TEUs "this fiscal year" (FY2027, ending Jun 2027). He said customers have built tariffs into their supply chains. Lynch retires 2027-08-01. https://www.statesboroherald.com/local/georgia-ports-authoritys-2026-state-of-the-port-report-celebrates-record-growth/ ; https://www.wtoc.com/2026/10/14/savannah-port-leadership-says-their-growth-is-unmatched-us-ceo-says-he-announces-retirement/ - [2026-10-14] The Army Corps approved the Savannah Container Terminal permit. Current capacity is 7.75M TEUs. The announcement has no bearing on 2026 volume. https://gcaptain.com/port-of-savannah-wins-approval-for-2-3-billion-container-terminal/ - [2026-10-13] IANA forecasts October 2026 North American intermodal volume at 105.1, down 0.3% from September but up 5.5% year on year. The Panama Canal restored 10 Neopanamax transits a day from Oct 15. https://www.railwayage.com/intermodal/intermodal-briefs-port-of-savannah-iana/ - [Scheduled] GPA typically releases monthly figures about 2–3 weeks after month-end. October data is expected around mid-to-late November and November data in mid-to-late December. GPA reports calendar-year results at its January board meeting, which was Jan 27 last year and falls before the Jan 29 close. The question's "Total All" wording suggests the GPA monthly tables. BOTTOM LINE: With YTD through September at roughly 4.35M TEUs and recent months running 470–530k, the October–December run-rate needed to pass 5.6M is lower than any recent month. The main risk is a sharp Q4 drop, such as a post-peak slump or a shock like tariffs. Calendar 2026 looks on track to be about flat with 2025's ~5.7M, but I did not locate an official calendar-year YTD figure. NOT FOUND: an official calendar-2026 YTD TEU total, a July 2026 monthly figure, a November 2025 monthly figure, and any October 2026 Savannah data (not yet published). The GPA press-release page returned 403.

- [2026-10-07] September 2026 was a record September: 504,015 TEUs, up 3.7% y/y. Loaded imports rose 5.5%. GPA's fiscal Q1 (Jul–Sep 2026) was more than 1.5M TEUs, up 40,560 TEUs (+2.7%), the second-best quarter in GPA history. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-monthly-mark-for-savannah-container-volume - [2026-10-14] At the State of the Port address, CEO Lynch said GPA expects to pass 6M TEUs in the current fiscal year (Jul 2026–Jun 2027). That is an official forecast for the fiscal year, not the calendar year. It implies a run-rate well above 5.6M. https://www.bryancountynews.com/news/georgia-ports-authoritys-2026-state-of-the-port-report-celebrates-record-growth/ - [2026-07-28] Fiscal 2026 (Jul 2025–Jun 2026) was 5.67M TEUs, versus about 5.7M in FY2025. June 2026 was 483,684 TEUs, up 18% y/y. https://www.rtands.com/ports/port-of-savannah-sees-18-volume-increase-in-june/ - [2026-05-19] Through April, FY26 was about 4.7M TEUs, down 2.5%. April 2026 was 443,650 TEUs, down about 14% from the record April 2025 (tariff front-loading). So early 2026 was soft. Savannah recovered strongly from May–June onward. https://gcaptain.com/georgia-ports-container-volumes-slip-as-savannah-expansion-push-continues/ - [2025-02-25] Calendar 2024 was 5.6M TEUs, up 12.5%. The all-time record is 5.9M in 2022. 5.6M therefore sits at roughly the 2024 level and just below the record. https://gcaptain.com/savannahs-12-5-growth-sets-stage-for-mega-expansion/ - [2026-07-xx] A secondary Substack source says Savannah processed nearly 5.7M TEUs in 2025, up 2.6%. This may conflate fiscal and calendar years. I did not confirm an official calendar-2025 figure. https://freightflowadvisor.substack.com/p/savannah-just-completed-a-12-year - [2025-11-20] Through October 2025, Savannah calendar YTD was 4.8M TEUs, up 4%. October 2025 was 452,900 TEUs, down 8.4%. Oct–Dec 2025 therefore runs about 450k per month, which is the comparison base for Q4 2026. https://www.wtoc.com/2025/11/20/port-savannah-has-handled-48-million-teus-so-far-2025/ - [2026-10-xx] IANA expects October 2026 intermodal volumes to stay near September levels, extending peak-season demand. https://www.railwayage.com/intermodal/intermodal-briefs-port-of-savannah-iana/ - [2026-10-14] Capacity is 7.75M TEUs, so there is no capacity constraint near 5.6M. https://gcaptain.com/port-of-savannah-wins-approval-for-2-3-billion-container-terminal/ - [Own arithmetic, rough, unverified] I estimate Jul–Dec 2025 at about 2.75M TEUs, so Jan–Jun 2026 is about 5.67M minus 2.75M, or about 2.9M. Adding Q3 2026 at about 1.51M gives about 4.4M through September. Oct–Dec at 450–500k per month adds roughly 1.35–1.5M. That puts calendar 2026 around 5.75–5.9M, with a threshold gap of about 150–300k TEUs. I did not find an official Jan–Sep 2026 calendar YTD figure. - Reference class: in 2022, 2024 and 2025 (if the secondary source is right), Savannah calendar-year volume was at or above about 5.6M. 2023 was about 5.0M, below the line. Annual growth has ranged from –15% to +12%. The yearly figure has a typical Q4 monthly range of 440–510k. - Resolution timing: the calendar-year figure is normally released in the February State of the Port or the January/February board release. That is after the 2027-01-29 trading close, which may matter for how the contract settles. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view leans toward calendar 2026 exceeding 5.6M. My rough arithmetic puts it at about 5.75–5.9M, backed by record September volume and a management forecast of more than 6M for the fiscal year. The main risks are a weak Q4 or an error in my estimate of Jan–Sep 2026, which I could not confirm. NOT FOUND: an official calendar-2026 YTD TEU total; an official calendar-2025 total; third-party or analyst forecasts for calendar 2026; any other venue's market on this. I could not open the gaports.com press pages (blocked by bot protection).

YES means: Port of Savannah's calendar-2026 "Total All" TEU throughput, in the first official publication with full Jan–Dec data, is above 5.6 million. - [2026-08-11] July 2026 was 503,739 TEUs, up 5.7% (+27,051). Imports were 251,888 and exports about 115,000. This fills the July gap the earlier reports flagged. Using only monthly figures already published, Jul–Sep 2026 is 503,739 + 529,523 + 504,015 = about 1.537M. https://www.savannahtrafficclub.org/news/port-of-savannah-exports-up-8-percent-in-july - [2026-10-17] My arithmetic from GPA figures: H1 2.83M plus Jul–Sep 1.537M gives about 4.367M through September. Passing 5.6M needs only about 1.233M in Q4, or about 411k a month. That is roughly 20k a month below the weakest recent month (December 2025 at 439.6k, per the colleagues' Jan 27 item). It is about 92k a month below the Jul–Sep 2026 average of 512k. Source basis: https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/07/savannah-fy2026-volumes-down-year-on-year/ and https://www.savannahtrafficclub.org/news/port-of-savannah-exports-up-8-percent-in-july - [2026-10-17] Q4 2025 cross-check: calendar 2025 was "nearly 5.7M". Through October 2025 it was 4.8M (+183,250 TEUs, +4%). So Nov–Dec 2025 came to roughly 0.85–0.95M, or about 425–475k a month. A Q4 2026 at flat year-on-year would add about 1.3–1.4M. That gives a 2026 total of about 5.67–5.77M. https://www.expansionsolutionsmagazine.com/port-of-savannah-container-volumes-rise-4-through-october/ and https://www.wtoc.com/2026/01/27/port-savannah-achieves-second-busiest-year-ever-2025/ - [2026-10-08] NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker (covers Savannah) forecasts US imports for October 2026 at 2.25M TEU (+8.5% y/y), November at 2.0M (−1%) and December at 2.02M (+0.6%). The full-year forecast is 25.8M (+1.4%). The tracker's forecast for the year was raised from 25.5M (Aug 7) to 25.7M (September) to 25.8M. That is a national forecast with Q4 roughly flat y/y, not a collapse. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up - [2026-10-08] Same NRF release: January 2027 is forecast at 2.07M TEU (−1.9%). Ben Hackett describes core indicators as broadly flat or weakening slightly, and consumer spending as robust. No forecast calls for a sharp Q4 fall; the downside is mild seasonal easing. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up - [2026-08-11] The July release said August volumes "on the water" looked strong. August then came in at 529,523 and September at a record for that month (colleagues' Sept 15 and Oct 7 items). Lynch's forward-looking statements have matched the following month's results. Tailwinds also include a 41% record at the Appalachian Regional Port and rail lifts of 44,981 containers in July (+2%). https://www.savannahtrafficclub.org/news/port-of-savannah-exports-up-8-percent-in-july - [2026-10-14] Capacity is 7.75M TEUs, so nothing physical caps Q4 throughput. Brampton Road Connector (opened Jul 15) and Ocean Terminal berth upgrades support throughput. https://gcaptain.com/port-of-savannah-wins-approval-for-2-3-billion-container-terminal/ - [2026-10-14] Bryan County News on State of the Port: FY2026 was 5.7M. Lynch said GPA expects to pass 6M in the current fiscal year, "following a record September". For FY2027 to reach 6M with Jul–Sep at 1.54M, GPA needs about 4.46M in Jan–Jun 2027. That implies management sees continuing volume. https://www.bryancountynews.com/news/georgia-ports-authoritys-2026-state-of-the-port-report-celebrates-record-growth/ **Single most likely path to YES:** - Q4 2026 only needs to run at about 411k a month, versus 440–530k a month since June. - Savannah has not printed a month below 440k since April (443,650). Even April-level volume for all three months (about 1.33M) clears the line, with about 100k to spare. - Prerequisites: no abrupt tariff or policy shock, port disruption (strike, hurricane) or Asia–US import collapse in Oct–Dec. GPA must also publish the full-year figure, which is normally at its late-January board meeting (Jan 27 last year). That is before the Jan 29 close. BOTTOM LINE: With about 4.37M through September, the 5.6M line needs only about 411k a month in Q4, below every month since April. NRF forecasts Q4 national imports roughly flat y/y, so YES is the default path unless there is a shock. NOT FOUND: an official GPA calendar-2026 YTD total; October 2026 Savannah data (not yet released); a precise November 2025 monthly figure; a Savannah-specific analyst forecast for Q4 2026; and a confirmed date for the January 2027 GPA release.

YES means: Savannah's calendar-2026 "Total All" TEU throughput, in the first official publication with full January–December data, is above 5.6 million. The NO case is weak on volumes. It rests on a Q4 collapse or on resolution mechanics. - [2026-08-11] July 2026 was 503,739 TEUs, up 5.7% year on year. This fills the gap in the colleagues' reports. July, August and September sum to about 1.537M TEUs. That is the sum of the July figure, the August figure from the Sept 15 report and the September figure from the Oct 7 report. With H1 at 2.83M (rounded), YTD through September is about 4.36–4.37M. Reaching 5.6M therefore needs Q4 of about 1.23–1.24M, or about 411k a month. That is about 7% below Q4 2025, which I estimate at roughly 1.33M, a figure I derived myself. NO needs a Q4 year-on-year decline of about 7% or more. https://www.savannahtrafficclub.org/news/port-of-savannah-exports-up-8-percent-in-july - [2026-07-29] The H1 figure of 2.83M is rounded. The reported decline of 21,533 TEUs (0.76%) gives only a loose bound. A rounding error of ±5k is immaterial against a cushion of about 120–130k. The cushion would be erased only by a Q4 shortfall. https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/07/savannah-fy2026-volumes-down-year-on-year/ - [2026-01-27] Calendar 2025 was "nearly 5.7M", up 146,000 TEUs, or 2.6%. The 2025 figure is a rounded headline. If GPA again rounds in its release (for example "5.6 million"), a literal reading could make "above 5.6M" ambiguous. A precise TEU total would normally come from the monthly tables. This is a small technical NO route. https://www.griceconnect.com/local-news/port-of-savannah-achieves-second-busiest-year-ever-11795529 - [2026-01-27] The calendar-2025 release came at the January board meeting. The Nov 17, 2025 agenda packet listed the next meeting as January 26–27. The 2026 date is not confirmed in my sources. If the board meeting slips to after Jan 29, or the release carries only fiscal-year-to-date figures, no official calendar total exists by the close. Resolution would then depend on the contract's settlement language. That is a timing and technicality risk, not a volume risk. https://savannahagenda.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Agenda-Packet-Nov-2025.pdf - [2025-11-18] Q4 2025 is the comparison base. October 2025 was 452,934, down 8.4% year on year, and December 2025 was 439,630. Months near 440–450k were normal in the 2025 low season. A repeat of that level would still give Q4 of about 1.33M, well above the 1.23M needed. NO needs months well below 2025's already-soft levels. https://www.georgiatrend.com/2025/11/18/georgia-trend-daily-nov-18-2025/ - [2026-03] February 2026 was 445,214 TEUs, down 7.2% from 479,847. Early 2026 had several sub-450k months, and April was 443,650. So a sub-411k month is not unprecedented in the seasonal trough. A very bad November–December, with Lunar New Year-style front-loading and post-peak pull-forward, would be needed. A typhoon-delayed peak that pulled cargo into September (per the Oct 7 report) could leave a hollowed-out Q4. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/ports-steady-february - [2026-10-08] Xeneta says Far East–US spot rates reached a post-Hormuz-crisis peak on Oct 1, and elevated costs will persist. A freight-cost shock and a demand pull-forward are plausible NO mechanisms. Savannah's own July–September data show no sign of weakness, though. https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/07/savannah-fy2026-volumes-down-year-on-year/ - [2026-10-14] Lynch's ">6M this fiscal year" refers to FY2027. That is 1.54M already done plus about 4.5M needed over Oct–Jun. It does not guarantee calendar 2026. Management guidance has been optimistic before: the Nov 2025 "improvement in the second half" view was followed by H1 2026 down 0.76%. https://www.statesboroherald.com/local/georgia-ports-authority-s-2026-state-of-the-port-report-celebrates-record-growth/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO case relies on a roughly 7% year-on-year Q4 drop, which no data show yet. It also relies on a technicality: no official full-year publication before the Jan 29 close, or rounded headline wording. Arithmetic favours YES, so NO is a tail scenario. NOT FOUND: official calendar-2026 YTD TEUs through September; a November 2025 monthly figure; the confirmed date of the January 2027 GPA board meeting; any October 2026 Savannah figure; any contract language on what happens if no publication appears by Jan 29. I did not run searches on Q4 2026 demand forecasts or on tariff or labor risks, and I did not look for Q4 sibling or other-venue markets.