Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?

- [2026-10-13] AL-02 is a Figures (D, incumbent) vs. Rhett Marques (R) race on the redrawn map. Hoodline, citing al.com, says Mobile County was removed and Wiregrass territory added. The new lines would have favored Trump by 14 points in 2024. Figures won 54.6% in 2024 on the old map. https://hoodline.com/2026/10/alabama-s-redrawn-2nd-district-race-hinges-on-montgomery-turnout-polls-show-dead-heat/ - [2026-10-13] Hoodline reports Figures is counting on Montgomery County, about 31% of registered voters. It could reach about 40% of the electorate on high turnout. Black voters are about 40% of the district. Same source as above. - [2026-10-11] Smarter.Vote's AI-generated model gives Marques a 58% win probability (Tilt R, +2.5 margin). It uses only 3 polls, so the number is thin and not independent. https://smarter.vote/races/al-house-02-2026/ - [2026-10-11] Only three polls are on record. Impact Research (2026-06-22, n=400) had Marques 45, Figures 44. DCCC internal (2026-07-29/30, n=421) was tied 46–46. House Majority PAC/Tulchin (2026-08-24 to 31) was tied 47–47, and Figures led 50–47 after biographical information. All three are partisan or sponsor-released, and I found no public poll from the last 6 weeks. https://smarter.vote/races/al-house-02-2026/ - [2026-08-12] The DCCC memo says Figures has +14 job approval and is tied despite an R+9 party-ID edge in the poll. It says Doug Jones (D, governor) leads Tuberville 48–45 in the district. 56% of residents are Figures' existing constituents. https://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/DCCC-Polling-Memo-Rep.-Shomari-Figures-in-Toss-Up-Race-in-AL-02.pdf - [2026-08-12] Marques won the GOP special primary on 2026-08-11 with 50.03% of the vote against five rivals, and no runoff was held. Figures was unopposed. Turnout was very low at 8.16% in the district. https://www.alreporter.com/2026/08/12/rhett-marques-wins-gop-nomination-in-redrawn-2nd-congressional-district/ - [2026-08-13] The map is the 2023 legislature map. It cut the Black voting-age population in the district from about 48% to about 40%. Alabama Reflector says Democrats are "projected to have a good environment" in November. https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/13/alabama-2nd-congressional-district-race-could-have-national-implications/ - [2026-06-02] The Supreme Court stayed the lower-court order blocking the 2023 map, so Alabama uses it in 2026. The ruling followed Louisiana v. Callais, and the stay emphasized not changing election rules close to an election. The map is settled for November. https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/supreme-court-reinstates-racially-discriminatory-map-for-alabamas-2026-congressional-elections - [2026-09] Smarter.Vote reports Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely R to Leans R. Cook rated it Likely R as of mid-August, and I could not confirm a later Cook rating. Marques is endorsed by Trump and Sen. Britt. https://smarter.vote/races/al-house-02-2026/ - [2026-08-17] The district's partisan lean is R+7 (Cook PVI). The same race has been described as a possible hold for Figures only if November is a Democratic wave. https://www.alreporter.com/2026/08/17/first-poll-released-after-special-primary-suggests-cd-2-is-a-tied-race/ - [2026-11-03] The election is on 2026-11-03, and the market closes 2026-11-04. No result exists yet. The FEC and official results are not yet available for this race. BOTTOM LINE: The race is competitive. Figures is an incumbent on a district about R+7 (Trump +14 in 2024), the polls are tied, and all of them come from partisan sources. Ratings are Lean/Likely R, so the outcome depends on Democratic national environment and Montgomery-area Black turnout. NOT FOUND: Any independent, nonpartisan public poll after August. A current Cook rating. Q3 FEC fundraising totals. Outside-spending totals. Any official result.

- [2026-10-16] Raters on the Wikipedia tracker all have Figures (D) as the underdog, i.e. a Republican flip. Cook (Oct 16): Likely R. Inside Elections (Oct 15): Lean R. Sabato (Oct 8): Lean R. Economist: Likely R. Split Ticket: Tossup. DDHQ: Likely R. FPO: Lean R. Fox: Likely R. Silver Bulletin (Sep 10): Likely R. RCP: Lean R. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_ratings - [2026-09-11] Sabato moved AL-02 from Likely R to Lean R. It still called Figures an underdog and treated the Democratic internal polls as rosy. It cited his incumbency and likely strong Black turnout. https://www.alreporter.com/2026/09/11/race-rater-narrows-gop-edge-in-alabamas-2nd-congressional-district/ - [2026-06-18] Cook moved the seat from Solid R to Likely R, with Figures "the clear underdog" under the redrawn lines. Cook rates the seat R+7 and described the national environment as deteriorating for the GOP. https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481721 and https://yellowhammernews.com/cook-political-report-keeps-alabamas-2nd-district-rated-republican-despite-shift-to-democrat-shomari-figures/ - [2026-06-02] The Supreme Court (6-3) let Alabama use its 2023 legislature-drawn map for 2026. The Black voting-age population in AL-02 fell from 48.7% to 39.9%. https://alabamareflector.com/2026/06/02/supreme-court-allows-alabama-to-use-2023-congressional-map-in-august-special-primary/ - [2026-10-13] The redrawn seat would have voted Trump +14 in 2024; the Almanac puts it at Trump +15. Mobile County was removed and Wiregrass territory added. Figures won 54.6% under the old map. Montgomery County is the key: about 31% of registered voters, up to 40% of the electorate if turnout is high. https://hoodline.com/2026/10/alabama-s-redrawn-2nd-district-race-hinges-on-montgomery-turnout-polls-show-dead-heat/ - [2026-10-13] All public polls found are Democratic-sponsored or internal. DCCC, late July: 46-46. House Majority PAC/Tulchin, Aug 24-31: 47-47, with Figures ahead 50-47 after bios. Impact Research, Jul 14: Marques 45, Figures 44. I found no independent nonpartisan poll. https://hoodline.com/2026/10/alabama-s-redrawn-2nd-district-race-hinges-on-montgomery-turnout-polls-show-dead-heat/ and https://www.alreporter.com/2026/08/17/first-poll-released-after-special-primary-suggests-cd-2-is-a-tied-race/ - [2026-08-17] The DCCC poll also had Doug Jones (D, governor) 3 points ahead of Tuberville in the district. Alabama Reporter noted that internal and partisan polls tend to overrate their own side. https://www.alreporter.com/2026/08/17/first-poll-released-after-special-primary-suggests-cd-2-is-a-tied-race/ - [2026-10-16] The Almanac says Democrats are gaining momentum nationally, with the biggest rating shifts of the cycle. It lists AL-2 as Trump +15 in its battleground list. https://almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/an-updated-look-at-the-shape-of-the-9f3 - [2026-08-13] Reference class: a Democratic incumbent in a seat Trump carried by about 14-15 points. A favourable midterm environment for Democrats and a strong Black turnout share offset some of that. Figures is a first-term incumbent. His 2024 win came on a court-drawn D+5 map. Before that, the seat was Republican in every term since 1965 except 2009-11. https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-ahead-alabama-district-dominated-gop-since-1965-1973557 and https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/13/alabama-2nd-congressional-district-race-could-have-national-implications/ - [2026-08-13] The Republican nominee is state Rep. Rhett Marques, who is Trump-endorsed and won the Aug 11 special primary. Both parties' national groups are investing. https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/13/alabama-2nd-congressional-district-race-could-have-national-implications/ - [2024-11-05] Track record: Cook and Sabato rated the 2024 version of this seat Likely D after polls showed Figures ahead by 5 to 12 points, and he won by 9.2 points. https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-ahead-alabama-district-dominated-gop-since-1965-1973557 and https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/alabama-us-house-district-2-results BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is that Figures is a modest underdog. Seats at Trump +14 or more rarely flip to a Democratic incumbent, and every major rater has Republicans favored (Likely R to Lean R, with only Split Ticket at Tossup). Against that, a Democratic-leaning national environment, incumbency, and Democratic-sponsored polls showing a tie leave a real chance of a Democratic hold. NOT FOUND: Any independent nonpartisan public poll of the redrawn AL-02. The Cook race-analysis text (paywalled). Historical base-rate statistics for Trump +14 seats held by a Democratic incumbent. Any detail of litigation still pending that could change the map before Nov 3 (the map appears settled for 2026).

YES means: Democrat Shomari Figures (or any Democratic candidate) wins the AL-02 House seat on Nov 3, 2026. - [2026-10-15] Figures out-raised Marques about 3 to 1 in Q3. He took in $1,052,456 against $316,795 and ended September with $1,376,918 cash on hand, against $327,580 for Marques. The earlier reports gave only July 22 figures. https://1819news.com/news/item/democrat-u.s.-rep.-shomari-figures-holds-1-million-fundraising-lead-over-rhett-marques-in-cd-2-race - [2026-10-15] Punchbowl says Democrats' Q3 hauls are blunting the GOP's outside-money edge. It cites Figures as an example of Democratic incumbents "dominating" in redrawn red-leaning seats. It also says Republicans may lack the money to overcome the national environment. (Search snippet only; the page returned 403.) https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/democratic-candidates-dominate-fundraising/ - [2026-10-08] AdImpact figures show Democrats ahead on air. Pro-Figures spending is about $1.5M against about $827K for Marques's side since Aug 11. The DCCC alone has spent about $1.1M. Pritzker's "Ready for the Fight" super PAC began a Montgomery buy of about $182K. Marques has only $105K of his own ads reserved. The Black Caucus-linked Rolling Sea Action Fund and Project 218 are also backing Figures. https://aldailynews.com/democrats-outspend-republicans-on-ads-nearly-2-to-1-in-alabamas-2nd-district-race/ - [2026-10-07] Punchbowl (via snippet) says Figures could have a narrow path if Black turnout is high and Republicans stay home in a bad GOP year. It also says Marques is favored and Republican outside groups are spending. https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/gop-million-redistricting-gamble/ - [2026-10-14] The national environment has moved toward Democrats since the August polls. DDHQ's generic-ballot average is D+7.7. Focaldata-FT (Oct 2-5) has D+8 among likely voters. NewsNation/DDHQ (Oct 5-9) has D 49, R 42. ActiVote (Oct 14) shows a cycle-high D+6.6, with Black voters moving from 63% to 68% Democratic. https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/generic-ballot/national and https://www.activote.net/polls/generic-ballot/2026-10-14/ - [2026-10-15] An AARP poll of battleground districts (Oct 1-5) had Trump approval at 42% and disapproval at 56%, with Democrats up 3 on the generic ballot in competitive seats. That is a weaker lead than the national average, but it still favors Democrats. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6149212-democrats-republicans-generic-ballot-aarp-poll/ - [2026-09-09] The most recent poll is a House Majority PAC/Tulchin poll (Aug 24-31). It tied the initial ballot at 47-47 and had Figures ahead 50-47 once voters heard biographies. That is the only informed-ballot test of the race. https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-shomari-figures-tied-with-rhett-marques-in-al-02 - [2026-08-12] The DCCC memo says Marques had only 31% name ID in the June Impact poll. Figures is known by over half the district, with +14 job approval. His 2024 Montgomery County margin was 31 points. Nearly half of the district's Black voters live in Montgomery County. So the path to YES is about 40% Black share, a lopsided Montgomery turnout, and enough crossover in the Wiregrass and Dothan markets as Marques gets defined. https://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/DCCC-Polling-Memo-Rep.-Shomari-Figures-in-Toss-Up-Race-in-AL-02.pdf - [2026-10-08] The DCCC's new attack ad hits Marques on legislative votes and on late taxes at his former tire business. Figures also has localized ads for farmers in Dothan and on Jackson Hospital in Montgomery. https://aldailynews.com/democrats-outspend-republicans-on-ads-nearly-2-to-1-in-alabamas-2nd-district-race/ - [2026-10-13] The previous Aug 11 special primary was a poor signal of general-election strength. It had very low turnout (8.16%) and was a GOP-only contest. Figures's 2024 result of 54.6% (D+9.2) was a double-digit overperformance of the 2024 polling-based ratings. https://hoodline.com/2026/10/alabama-s-redrawn-2nd-district-race-hinges-on-montgomery-turnout-polls-show-dead-heat/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a D+7 to D+8 national wave, high Black turnout in Montgomery, and a financial and ad advantage for Figures, with Marques still little known. Figures needs to overcome a Trump +14 seat. That is a real obstacle, and the only published polls are partisan. NOT FOUND: Any independent public poll after June. Any Cook or Inside Elections rating change beyond what colleagues listed. Early-vote or turnout data for AL-02. Q3 super PAC totals beyond AdImpact figures. The Punchbowl page itself (403).

YES means: Shomari Figures (D) or another Democratic-affiliated candidate wins the AL-02 House seat on Nov 3, 2026, so a Republican (Rhett Marques) does not hold it. - [2026-10-16] Figures raised about $1.0M in Q3 against Marques's $317K, but that is small money for a Trump+14 seat. He entered October with $1.38M cash and Marques with $328K. The Alabama Daily News article that reports this describes Figures as in an "uphill climb". Cook still rates the seat Likely R. https://aldailynews.com/figures-raised-three-times-marques-third-quarter-haul-in-2nd-district-race/ - [2026-10-16] A Trump-aligned super PAC (No Going Back) has now passed $2M in ads backing Marques, up from the roughly $539K reported in earlier AdImpact data. Republican outside money is catching up with the Democratic advantage on the air, which was nearly 2-to-1 as of Oct 8. A separate Oct 14 item put its latest TV buy at $686K. https://aldailynews.com/figures-raised-three-times-marques-third-quarter-haul-in-2nd-district-race/ ; https://gokhshtein.com/news/2026-10-14-trump-pac-spends-686k-to-protect-alabama-gop-house-seat - [2026-10-01] A Napolitan/Alabama Policy Action statewide poll (Sep 21–25, n=800 registered voters, conservative sponsor) had Tuberville ahead of Jones 50–37 for governor. Barry Moore led Everett Wess 54–33 for Senate. That is worse for Jones than the 2020 outcome. The DCCC memo's claim that Jones leads Tuberville in AL-02 (Aug 12) rests on a single sponsor-released sample. A July poll in the same series had Jones within 8, so the trend is toward Republicans. https://alabamapolicy.org/2026/10/01/new-poll-shows-strong-support-for-candidates-and-overwhelming-voter-favorability-for-the-choose-act/ ; https://yellowhammernews.com/report-doug-jones-is-polling-worse-than-2020-blowout-election/ - [2026-10-01] The same statewide poll implies there is little top-ticket Democratic help in Alabama. The Senate race is lopsided, so Figures has to run well ahead of the ticket in a Trump+14 district. https://alabamapolicy.org/2026/10/01/new-poll-shows-strong-support-for-candidates-and-overwhelming-voter-favorability-for-the-choose-act/ - [2026-09-11] Sabato's Crystal Ball kept Figures as the underdog even after the Lean R shift. It said it generally reads publicly released internal polls as rosy for the side that releases them. All three tied polls (Jun 22–25, Jul 29–30, Aug 24–31) were Democratic-sponsored, and none has been published since the first week of September. https://www.alreporter.com/2026/09/11/race-rater-narrows-gop-edge-in-alabamas-2nd-congressional-district/ - [2026-08-17] The DCCC poll weighted to an R+9 party-ID edge, per the DCCC. That is a point for Figures, but it also shows the baseline partisan lean of the sample. A tie in the horse race with Figures at 46% and 8% undecided leaves room for undecideds to break toward the party that carried the district by 14 points. The poll had n=421 and a ±4.8 margin of error. https://aldailynews.com/new-democratic-poll-shows-figures-and-marques-in-dead-heat-for-al-2-seat/ - [2026-08-12] The DCCC memo says Black voters are 40% of the voting-age population, with nearly half of them in Montgomery County. Figures needs very high Black turnout and some Trump-voter crossover at the same time. The Aug 11 special primary drew only 8.16% turnout, so no turnout surge has yet been shown in this district. Marques won 50% in a six-way field. https://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/DCCC-Polling-Memo-Rep.-Shomari-Figures-in-Toss-Up-Race-in-AL-02.pdf - [2026-10-15] The campaign is fought over local farm and tariff issues, and Marques is tying Figures to Democratic "tax-and-spend" policies. He has the backing of the Alabama Farmers Federation. This is a standard Republican nationalization message in a Trump+14 district. https://www.wtvy.com/2026/10/15/figures-marques-trade-blame-over-farm-bill-alabama-house-race/ - [2026-10-16] Resolution mechanics favor the status quo. There is no runoff in November, since a plurality wins. The map was settled by the Supreme Court stay of Jun 2 (see colleagues' report). The question resolves on whichever party's candidate wins, and no technicality, such as an independent or a party switch, is visible. The race is a straight Figures-vs-Marques contest. https://smarter.vote/races/al-house-02-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is structural. The seat is Trump+14 and every major rater except Split Ticket has the Republican favored, and the only evidence of a tie is Democratic-sponsored polling with no independent confirmation since August. The statewide Alabama environment is not improving for Democrats (Jones down 13 in a Sep 21–25 conservative-sponsored poll), and Republican outside money is rising, so Figures would need to beat the district's partisan lean on turnout and incumbency alone. NOT FOUND: Any independent nonpartisan poll of AL-02 after August. Any Republican internal poll of the race. Early-vote or turnout data. Cook's analysis text, which is paywalled. A historical base rate for Democratic incumbents holding Trump+14 seats.