US strike on Colombia by December 31?

- [2026-01-03/04] US strikes on Venezuela ended with Maduro captured. Trump then threatened Colombia and called a military operation there "sounds good to me". Petro phoned Trump a few days later and the tone eased, with a White House meeting planned. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-speaks-colombia-petro-days-004313566.html - [2026-03-06] SOUTHCOM and Ecuador struck a Comandos de la Frontera camp in Ecuador near the Colombian border. It was the first confirmed US ground-linked strike in South America since Venezuela. No US strike on Colombian soil appears in this source. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-ecuador-strike-suspected-drug-230721350.html - [2026-06-25] Abelardo de la Espriella, a hard-line conservative, was president-elect and due to take office in August. He promised an air campaign against the ELN and to join Trump's "Shield of the Americas". https://unherd.com/newsroom/new-colombian-president-could-be-the-key-to-trumps-drug-war/?edition=us - [2026-08-12] Hegseth said in Panama that Colombia's new government approved joint military operations with the US against drug gangs in its territory (Bloomberg). Ecuador, Honduras and Guatemala had already pledged similar cooperation. Bloomberg returned HTTP 403, so this comes from the search snippet only. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-12/hegseth-says-colombia-approves-joint-military-operations-with-us - [2026-08-14] The Washington Post, via Hegseth, reported that De la Espriella asked Trump to bring the militarized antidrug campaign to Colombia. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/08/14/new-president-asks-trump-bring-deadly-antidrug-campaign-colombia/ - [2026-09-08] Rubio was due to press Colombia's new leader to tackle the cocaine trade. The US has designated about 20 Latin American groups as terrorist organizations, including FARC dissident factions. https://gvwire.com/2026/09/08/rubio-to-push-colombias-new-leader-to-tackle-cocaine-trade/ - [2026-10-05] Operation Southern Spear has made at least 70 boat strikes and killed at least 238 people since 2 Sept 2025. 21 of the strikes were off La Guajira. These are maritime strikes, which the market's rules do not count as strikes on terrestrial territory. https://www.military.com/us-air-strikes-keep-blowing-up-cocaine-laden-boats-but-the-drugs-keep-flowing - [~2026-10-07] The Hill reported the Pentagon expanding the anti-cartel war with troops on the ground in South America. A source it quotes predicted operations inside Colombia "soon could" occur. I could not open the full article (HTTP 403). https://thehill.com/policy/defense/6132578-pentagon-drug-cartels-south-america/ - [2026-10-14] A WSJ piece, republished by To Vima, said smugglers are shifting routes and that US airstrikes are failing to stop the cocaine boom. Its subhead says Trump warned drug-trafficking countries could face US strikes. https://www.tovima.com/wsj/why-u-s-airstrikes-are-failing-to-stop-the-global-cocaine-boom - [2026-10-15] De la Espriella announced the arrest of 13 people in a La Guajira cocaine-network raid. This was a Colombian operation, not a US strike. https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-cocaine-network-raid-detains-13-2026 BOTTOM LINE: Cooperation is formally approved: Colombia's new government has invited US joint operations, and the US has already struck land targets in Ecuador (March 2026). The reporting I found shows no US air, drone or missile strike on Colombian soil as of 2026-10-16. Strikes at sea don't count under the rules. A qualifying event would most likely be a US-supported strike on a cocaine lab or armed-group camp. It is unclear whether such operations would be US-launched or Colombian-launched with US support. NOT FOUND: Any report of a US strike on Colombian land, or a SOUTHCOM announcement of a specific Colombia operation. Also not found: scheduled events before 31 Dec, such as a date for joint operations to start. The Bloomberg and Hill pages were blocked and I could not read them in full. No news from the last 7 days besides the La Guajira raid.

- [2026-10-15] No US air, drone or missile strike on Colombian soil has been reported through today. Nothing in the sources I read shows one. The US has struck on land in Venezuela (26 Dec 2025, 3 Jan 2026, 12 Jun 2026) and Ecuador (6 Mar 2026), but not in Colombia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_cartels_(2025%E2%80%93present) - [2026-01-04] Peak threat came after the Maduro capture. Trump said a Colombia operation "sounds good to me" and Petro should "watch his ass". https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/8/trump-invites-colombias-petro-to-white-house-after-threats - [2026-01-07] The threat de-escalated within days. A Trump–Petro call led to a White House invitation. Petro said he thought the threat was "frozen" but could be mistaken. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/gustavo-petro-says-trump-planned-military-operation-in-colombia/3794765 - [2026-02-03] Trump and Petro agreed on joint military and intelligence action against three named Colombian capos (Mordisco, Chiquito Malo, Pablito). The first follow-up strike, on 4 Feb, was Colombian-only, with no US troops involved. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260204-strike-kills-guerrillas-as-us-colombia-agree-to-target-narco-bosses - [2026-08-07] Abelardo de la Espriella, a Trump ally, was sworn in as Colombia's president. He joined the US-led Shield of the Americas, and the Wikipedia entry for Operation Southern Spear lists Colombia as a member of that coalition since August 2026. A host-government-consented US strike becomes plausible, but the risk of an unconsented one falls. https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-ally-el-tigre-sworn-colombias-new-president-amid-continents-rightward-shift - [2026-10-14] A WSWS report, which is partisan and from the left, says the new government has "opened Colombia to US military operations" and that US Reaper drones have arrived. I could not confirm details of the drone deployment or its mission from a neutral source. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/10/15/zogx-o15.html - [2026-09-30] SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Donovan told the WSJ that land strikes are "options" across nearly 20 countries. The Latin Times report on his interview says the only confirmed land campaign in South America so far is Ecuador, where US forces advised or supported local forces. About 50 US personnel joined Ecuadorean police raids on 24 Sep. https://www.latintimes.com/southcom-general-wont-rule-out-land-strikes-cartels-all-options-are-table-599716 - [2026-10-04] Base rate for the campaign: since Sept 2025 it has run about 79 boat strikes, with at least 238 killed. Land strikes outside Colombia are few: Venezuela (a dock in Dec 2025, Caracas in Jan 2026, and a June 2026 joint operation that killed Niño Guerrero) and Ecuador (March 2026). That is roughly 3–4 land episodes in about 13 months across the region, none in Colombia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_alleged_drug_traffickers_during_Operation_Southern_Spear - [2025-11-18] Earlier threats did not become action. Trump said anyone producing cocaine for the US "is subject to attack". He said land strikes would come "very soon" (Nov 2025) and "start now hitting land" (Jan 2026, aimed mainly at Mexico). No strike on Mexico was reported in the sources I read. https://latinamericareports.com/trump-floats-drug-strikes-against-colombia-petro-warns-of-war/13009/ - [2026-01-09] Trump's "start now hitting land" remark on Fox News was aimed mainly at Mexico. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-us-military-cartels-mexico-land.html - [2026-03-06] In Ecuador, the first land strikes (against Comandos de la Frontera) came at the host government's invitation. That is the closest template for Colombia under de la Espriella. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/trump-administration-launches-us-military-operation-in-ecuador BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is that no US strike has hit Colombia in about 13 months of threats and a regional land-strike campaign. The Petro-era hostility that drove the threats has been replaced by a cooperative ally government. Any strike would most likely be a consented, Ecuador-style operation, which US officials have only said is "on the table", and a joint operation might not count as a US-initiated strike. NOT FOUND: Any reported US air, drone or missile strike on Colombian soil. Any neutral report confirming the Reaper deployment in Colombia. Any independent expert forecast of a US strike on Colombia. I did not look for the contract's own price, as instructed.

YES means: a US-initiated (or US-claimed) drone, missile or air strike physically hits Colombian land, including rivers and ports, by 31 Dec 2026 ET. Strikes at sea do not count. - [2026-08-12] Reuters/AFP: Hegseth said "designated terrorist organizations, with partnered governments, will be legitimate targets" of the US, "to include Colombia". He answered "Yes" when asked if joint strikes on the ELN and FARC remnants had been discussed. This is a direct statement of intent by the US defence secretary, not just a Colombian authorization. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2654469/amp - [2026-08-12/15] A US official said the partnership should exceed Plan Colombia. State announced about $1B in security aid. The two sides signed a defence memorandum. https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2026/08/13/colombia-authorises-joint-us-military-anti-drug-ops-says-pentagon-chief - [2026-10-06/08] NYT, via Semana: US officials said MQ-9 Reapers were moved from Africa to Colombia and Ecuador, and "some are already operating in the region". Colombia gets three on loan and may buy a fourth. NYT also says Colombia and Ecuador have agreed to joint operations on their territory. Semana's related headline cites 600 US troops going to Colombia and other countries; I did not read that article. The platform that carries out strikes is therefore already in place. https://www.semana.com/mundo/articulo/ee-uu-despliega-drones-mq-9-reaper-en-colombia-lo-hace-en-medio-de-la-escalada-contra-los-carteles-del-narcotrafico/202625/ - [2026-10-06] Caveat: CRIES analyst Serbin Pont says it is unclear whether the Colombian Reapers will be armed or who decides on firing. The Defence Ministry has not confirmed the NYT report. https://lagacetaonline.com.ar/internacional/estados-unidos-envia-drones-reaper-a-colombia-en-lucha-contra-el-narcotrafico/ - [2026-10-06] Semana lists the Clan del Golfo, Mordisco's FARC dissidents, the Segunda Marquetalia and the ELN as US-designated terrorist groups. These are the potential targets. https://www.semana.com/mundo/articulo/ee-uu-despliega-drones-mq-9-reaper-en-colombia-lo-hace-en-medio-de-la-escalada-contra-los-carteles-del-narcotrafico/202625/ - [2026-10-11/14] Colombia's air campaign is escalating. On 11 Oct it carried out its fourth air strike under De la Espriella and its second in Catatumbo, using Kfir jets and Black Hawks against Frente 33. De la Espriella says he ordered it personally. A soldier later died in a minefield during verification. A tempo of about four strikes in two months creates demand for US intelligence and strike support. https://www.elcolombiano.com/colombia/presidente-de-la-espriella-ordena-bombardeo-frente-33-catatumbo-NB42163860 - [2026-10-15] Steptoe via Mondaq: the administration is pressing Shield of the Americas partners to authorize "direct land strikes and joint operations" and wants to replicate the Ecuador model across the region. In Ecuador, 50 US troops worked with 320 police, and the US-Ecuador joint airstrike in March used aircraft and drones. Ecuador shows the template going from consent to a US-participating air strike in a few months. https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/terrorism-homeland-security-defence/1855502/us-troops-in-ecuador-present-new-model-for-counternarcotics-in-latin-america - [2026-08-14] Justice for Colombia says the agreement "could involve US strikes" on Colombian territory. It also argues the deal breaches the constitutional requirement for a Senate vote on foreign troops. Legal challenge is a possible brake, but the government appears to have proceeded anyway. https://justiceforcolombia.org/colombia-confirms-joint-military-operations-with-us/ - [2026-08-12] AFP: De la Espriella has offered to host US troops. He plans a military alliance with the US and Israel. Politically there is no consent barrier, which was the main obstacle under Petro. https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2026/08/13/colombia-authorises-joint-us-military-anti-drug-ops-says-pentagon-chief Most likely path to YES: a joint US-Colombian operation against a designated group (ELN, Frente 33 or Clan del Golfo) in which a US MQ-9 or US aircraft fires on a camp or lab. SOUTHCOM or Hegseth would announce it, as with Ecuador in March. Prerequisites: - Armed US Reapers in Colombia, which NYT reports are already operating. - A US decision to fire rather than only provide surveillance. - Colombian political cover. - A public US claim, or credible reporting, before 31 Dec. A Colombian-flown strike with US intelligence support would not count. BOTTOM LINE: Consent, delivery of the strike platform, Hegseth's explicit "legitimate targets" statement and an escalating Colombian air campaign are all in place. The remaining gap is a US decision to fire, which has not yet been reported, within about 11 weeks. NOT FOUND: Any report of a US strike on Colombian soil as of 16 Oct. Any confirmation that the Colombian Reapers are armed. Any announced date for first joint strikes. The Semana "600 soldiers" article and the NYT original (not fetched).

YES means: a US-initiated drone, missile or air strike physically hits Colombian land, including rivers and ports, and is announced or credibly reported to have happened by 31 Dec 2026 ET. Boat strikes at sea, intercepted weapons, artillery and ground raids don't count. - [2026-10-07] The US Reaper drones in Colombia are for surveillance first. Per NYT via Infobae, they are meant for surveillance, intelligence and only "eventual" precision operations. The same piece says Colombia agreed to receive three of them. It also says that until now joint work was mostly maritime patrols and information sharing. Defense ministries and the Pentagon gave no comment on numbers or rules of engagement. A WSWS source quotes a Defense Ministry source telling CNN of "possible" precision strikes, so those are not planned strikes. https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2026/10/07/estados-unidos-desplegara-drones-mq-9-reaper-a-colombia-para-ampliar-ofensiva-militar-contra-el-narcotrafico/ - [2026-08-18/late Aug] The drones may be Colombian-operated. El Colombiano reported on 18 Aug that the US will transfer the three MQ-9s to Colombia. CSIS's Ziemer said they will need significant US training and doctrine help before Colombia can integrate them. A drone strike by Colombian operators would not count as "launched by United States operatives". https://www.airandspaceforces.com/southcom-first-drug-boat-strike-under-new-counter-cartel-task-force/ - [2026-08-12 to 2026-10] The pattern since the 12 Aug agreement is that Colombia strikes and the US supports. Colombia's own "precision bombing" in Guaviare (Operation Amón) killed at least 8 fighters, and the US role was a visit and briefings. Gen. Donovan visited Tumaco on 27 Aug. That is a template where Colombia strikes and the US only supports, which resolves NO. Joint Task Force Urano (5 Oct) is Colombian army, navy and air force. https://latinamericanpost.com/americas/colombia-puts-southcom-back-on-the-pacific-drug-war-map/ ; https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-task-force-urano-cesar-2026 - [2026-10-15] Fox News (via search snippet; the page body would not load) reports the Pentagon is sending hundreds of Army troops, including the 10th Mountain Division, for training. They will go first to a new jungle facility in Panama and later train with local forces in Colombia and Honduras. The stated mission is training, not strikes. The snippet also says Hegseth's Aug claim that Colombia, Guatemala and Honduras agreed to joint operations was denied by Guatemala. That shows the announced "agreements" are loose. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentagon-sends-hundreds-army-troops-latin-america-training-drug-trafficking-campaign-expands - [2026-08-26] Legal friction: a Medellín court admitted a tutela on 26 Aug. It asks which act authorised foreign military operations in Colombia, and it ordered the Senate secretariat to certify whether any permission request arrived. Senate president Honorio Henríquez said on 13 Aug that troop entry needs legislative approval. Under Art. 173, only the Senate can permit foreign troop transit. The 2010 Constitutional Court ruling struck down a US bases deal for lacking congressional approval. This is a possible brake, and the Pacto Histórico, the largest bloc in both chambers, is opposed. The Rio Times page loaded only partly, so the details come from the snippet. https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-tutela-foreign-military-operations-2026/ ; https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2010-08-26/colombia-united-states-constitutional-court-suspends-military-cooperation-agreement - [2026-10-14/15] Domestic politics are heating up. The first national protests against the government took place around 14–15 Oct. The Pacto Histórico announced a Council of State lawsuit over a police decree. WSWS says the Senate never authorized US operations. A visibly unauthorized US kinetic strike would add political cost for De la Espriella. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/10/15/zogx-o15.html - [2026-08 to 2026-10] Hegseth gave "few details" on what the joint operations would look like (AP via Border Report). I found no announced start date, target list or SOUTHCOM statement of a Colombian land operation. That is two months with no kinetic US action after the agreement. The template in Ecuador took about one month from invitation to strike, so Colombia is slower than that. https://www.borderreport.com/border-report-tour/border-crime/after-killing-hundreds-in-boat-strikes-us-military-expands-campaign-on-land-in-latin-america/ - [2026-08-12] The 12 Aug agreement is described as an authorization of "joint military operations". Countervortex (a left-leaning blog) says it opens the door to US-led strikes, which Hegseth said had been discussed. A joint raid or a Colombian-flown strike on US intelligence could be reported as "joint" and fail the literal test of a US-launched strike. Only a strike that is "credibly reported" as US-initiated, or claimed by Trump or the US government, would resolve YES. https://countervortex.org/blog/colombia-authorizes-joint-us-strikes/ - [2026-10-05] Only 76 days remain (to 31 Dec), and the earlier reports show roughly one land episode per 3–4 months for the whole region, none in Colombia. The market resolves No if the date cannot be confirmed within two days after close. Secret CIA or Special Operations strikes would likely not be "credibly reported" in time. Separately, a Rio Times piece cited the market itself at 13.5% on 5 Oct, which is a stale figure I was told not to rely on. https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-task-force-urano-cesar-2026 BOTTOM LINE: A host-consented Ecuador-style operation is the only plausible route to YES. As of 16 Oct there is no announced target or start date, the Reapers are framed as surveillance (and possibly Colombian-operated), and Colombia has been carrying out the actual bombings itself. Legal challenges and the literal "US-initiated" wording add further paths to NO. NOT FOUND: Any report of a US air, drone or missile strike on Colombian land. Any SOUTHCOM or Pentagon announcement of a dated Colombian strike operation. Any ruling on the Medellín tutela. Full text of the Hill, Bloomberg and Fox pieces (blocked or truncated).